institute for sustainable forestry contact@newforestry.org isf state of sustainability report...
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Institute for Sustainable Forestrycontact@newforestry.org
ISF State of Sustainability Report
Delusions of Viability?Meeting Community Forestry Goals
in a Global Market Context Community Planning Session:
June 26th 2004
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ISF Mission
“To promote sustainable forest management that contributes to the long-term ecological, economic and social well-being of forest based communities in the Pacific Northwest.”
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Global: Production / Consumption
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US Exports
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US Imports
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Global Factors
• Currency rate fluctuations• Trade liberalization• Business cycles• Access to low cost labor and raw
materials• Environmental constraints: Pacific
Northwest / China
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Industry response: Consolidation
• Major industry players consolidating in order to mitigate: – the impacts of currency volatility. – the impact of trade tariffs and other trade barriers.– national restrictions on foreign access to resources and
regional markets.– transportation costs in accessing regional markets– the business cycle itself through increasingly centralized
control over the rise and fall of regional production capacity.
• And to take advantage of low cost factors in the developing world
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Softwood Lumber Agreement/Dispute
• Softwood Lumber Agreement– 1996 thru 2001– Quota 31.5% of US production– Imports above quota paid per mbf surcharge
• Softwood Lumber Dispute / Tariffs – 2001 through present (June 2004)– 27% tariff applied at conclusion of SLA
• Countervailing Duty tariff: 18.79%• Anti-dumping tariff: average 8.43% applied to
individual firms
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Dispute: At Issue
• Stumpage pricing• Canadian restrictions on sawlog
exports• Tenure – “social contract”
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Price Spread
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Production
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Canadian Imports
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US Offshore Imports
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Canadian Log Exports
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US Log Imports
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Historical Cycles: 1981, 1991, 2001
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Price drop: 44%
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Low Prices Continued Through 2003
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Curtailments: 1996 - 2002
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Overall production gains 1996 - 2001
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PNW Employment
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Resolution?
• Canadian forest policy expected to move inline with market principles
• BC considering separate agreement with US
• Relaxed restrictions on sawlog exports already in progress
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Recent Price Increases
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Housing Market
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Softwood Lumber Dispute /PNW
• The US/Canada Softwood Lumber Agreement/Dispute led to: – Maintenance of high US prices in protected US market – Increased production capacity in non-targeted regions: US
South, Eastern Canada, Offshore imports– Decreasing relative competitiveness of US companies in
US and international markets– Significant curtailments and closures of older less
efficient mills in PNW: US and Canada– Increasing production efficiencies in remaining PNW
mills: Canada and US– Declining PNW wood products employment due to
increased production efficiencies– Increased access to Canadian sawlogs for remaining US
companies– Steep drop in lumber prices during relatively mild
downturn in US housing demand
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Global Trends
• Increasing consolidation of global forest products manufacturing.
• Increasing productivity per worker – fewer jobs.• Increasing production in low cost regions.• Increasing liberalization of international trade
rules.
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National Trends
• Increasing US demand/consumption.• Increasing competition from low cost
imports/producers including Canada and the US South.
• Continued restraint of timber harvests on federal forestland in the PNW.
• Ongoing business cycles.• Increasing liberalization of US trade policy.• Prices for small logs in the west projected “remain
weak” through 2050
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California Consumption
• Harvests approximately 2 billion board feet of timber annually: approximately 22% of consumption
• Consumes 9 billion board feet of softwood annually: 15% of overall US softwood consumption
• Imports 75% of its softwood consumption from Oregon, the US South, Canada and Europe
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California Timber Harvest
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California Production / National Market
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California Old Growth Harvest
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California Timber Industry
• Number of mills declined from nearly 100 in 1988 to 40 in 2002
• FS data on capacity changes in California are inconsistent:– Spelter 2001: Five California mills closed
between 1996 and 2001 resulting in a 2% decline in capacity
– Spelter 2002: Twelve California mills closed between 1996 and 2002: ISF estimated decline in capacity for the period as 27% however this data set includes no data on revised capacity changes in remaining mills
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California Timber Industry
• Between 1984 and 1994 California harvest levels on private ownerships represented less than – 65% of growth statewide – 75% of growth in the North Coast Resource
Area (Sonoma, Mendocino, Humboldt, Del Norte)
• Statewide inventory data for years following 1994 is not available
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North Coast Resource Area Inventory
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NCRA Growth/Harvest
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NCRA Inventory
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NCRA Even Aged Stands 1994
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State and Local Policy: Key Issues
• Productive Capacity: – Declining land base and administrative withdrawals of
land available for timber and range production, – Risks and Impacts from increased forest stocking levels.
• Forest Health:– Fuels buildup risks to ecosystems and human assets
• Socio-Economic Well Being:– Increasing consumption and statewide limitation on
California commodity output, – Meeting changing demands for recreation and open
space, – Meeting costs of resource protection, – Maintaining large landholdings in resource industries– Weak economies in rural communities.
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State and Local Policy: Key Issues
• Governance:– Complexity of regulatory oversight, – Limited policy integration, – Conflicts over forest and rangeland management
practices.
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ISF Response:
• The industry trends, dynamics and constraints identified in this report indicate that: – Increased access to California supply will not solve periodic
overcapacity and oversupply conditions in global markets,– Increased harvest of existing inventory will not increase the
capacity of California’s operable private forestlands to produce high quality timber,
– Increased lumber production in globally competitive mills will not return rural communities to historic levels of resource based socio-economic well-being.
– Intensive short rotation forestry will not increase fire safety in California forests.
– Regulatory relief will not counteract global industry dynamics affecting states and provinces throughout the PNW.
– None of these actions will raise sawlog prices for California landowners.
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Sustainable Forest Management
Long rotation, uneven-aged, selection management that maintains:
– Stocking of diverse species in the full range of age classes up to 120 years or more for softwoods,
– Habitat for sensitive species within the working landscape,
– High quality water through stream buffers and restoration of old roads and slides to stable conditions,
– Fire safety through management practices that mimic natural fire conditions and include planned fire breaks, and
– Forest productivity emphasizing high quality sawlogs.
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Sustainable Forest Management Provides
• Increased productivity to meet California’s wood product needs
• Reduced fire risk• Maintenance and improvement of water
quality • Maintenance of habitat for sensitive
species of plants and animals
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Sustainable Management Constraints
• Sustainable Forest Managers face:– periodic business cycles that include short-term downward pressure
on sawlog prices. – potential loss of sawlog markets if existing mills close.– mid-term downward pressure on prices from increasing industry
investment and lumber production in low cost production areas.– long-term prices projected to “continue to be weak for small-diameter
logs.” – growing stock of primarily younger age classes on private
ownerships.– increasingly monopsonistic conditions in sawlog markets
(consolidating infrastructure / fewer buyers).– a relatively (to other softwood lumber producing regions) high
harvesting cost structure.– costly and burdensome regulatory procedures.– no income from meeting social and political demands for ecosystem
services.
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The Opportunity
• Californians believe that insufficient progress has been made over the past 20 years in solving environmental problems.
• Public demand for conservation practices and environmental integrity can represent an opportunity for Sustainable Forest Management, rather than a constraint.
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Public Opinion
• In a 2000 Public Policy Institute opinion poll: – An overwhelming majority [of Californians] viewed overall
environmental problems such as air and water pollution, growth, traffic, and water supply as a threat to their health and well-being.
– Nearly 50% of Californians believed that urban growth and air pollution damage to the forests in the Sierra Nevada mountains, are a “big problem,” and an additional third were “concerned.”
– Approximately one-third had significant concerns regarding the logging of old growth redwoods in the North Coast, while two-thirds of the respondents rated the issue at least “somewhat of a problem.”
• In March 2002 57 % of California voters passed Proposition 40 (the California Clean Water, Clean Air, Safe Neighborhood Parks, and Coastal Protection Act of 2002), despite a recession.
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The Challenge
• Identify the “appropriate mix of private investments, regulation, public investments, and governance processes needed”, and
• Turn political and regulatory demands for social and ecological well-being into predictable income streams targeted at specific and documentable conservation and social-economic objectives.
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Potential Forms of Support
• Increased funding for easements and other forms of conservation incentives.
• Developed markets for domestic carbon credits • Financial assistance that offsets long term interest costs for
investment in active sustainable forest management on high site forestland.
• Policies that support clustered residential development and tradeable development credits in conjunction with working easements on productive timberland – particularly on low site or constrained TPZ forestland.
• Policies that support recreation, eco-tourism and other types of economic and rural development compatible with long rotation Sustainable Forest Management on low site timberland.
• Policies that support stream and slope restoration and restorative forestry in economic development priorities as aspects of maintaining and protecting the forest products and commercial fishing economic clusters.
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Conclusion
Now is the time for a clear-eyed re-evaluation of methods to support Sustainable Forest Management.
Environmental advocates, non-industrial landowners and sustainable resource managers all stand to benefit directly.
California’s citizens, forests, forest landowners, rural communities, wood products consumers and generations to come will all reap the long-term benefits.
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