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Interactions between Amazon economies, ecosystems, and climate: Opportunities
for policy intervention
Climate Change and the Fate of the AmazonUniversity of Oxford20-22 March 2007
Tropics Non-tropicsLong term 50% 50%1990s 100% 0%
Carbon emissionsfrom tropical deforestation
Houghton et al. unpublished
1998: emissions from forest fires in Amazon and Borneo = 1.5-2.0 Pg
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Topics:Drivers
•Future deforestation trends
•Drought, logging, fire & “scrubification”(juquirização)
Policy responses
•Carbon markets
•Regional planning “with teeth”
•Commodity markets
Deforestation will increase:biofuel and emerging meat-eating
nations
3
Cultivated Land
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
USA Brazil
Mill
ion
Squa
re K
ilom
eter
s
PotentialCurrent
FAO 2005; Michael Schean, USDA/FAS, communic. pessoal.;Nepstad, D., C. Stickler, O. Almeida, 2006. Conservation Biology
Future agricultural expansion will be mostly in the tropics
Russian closes door on beef
US weakens $
Mad cow
More meat-eaters; need ration
Amazon deforestation driven by economic “teleconnections”
Source: Nepstad, Stickler, Almeida 2006. Cons. Biol: Nepstad, Stickler, in press, J Sust. Forestry
Biofuel
4
Current and Projected Ethanol Imports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
EC US Japan Total
Mill
ions
Cub
ic M
eter
s 20052010
Higher Oil Prices
More USCorn
More AmazonSoy
Amazon Deforestation
(soy financing beef)
Less South.Brazil Soy
Higher SoyPrices
Emerging Meat-eating
Nations
Gulf of MexicoAnoxia
Less USSoy
Higher Ethanol Price
Higher Biodiesel Prices
More BrazilianSugar Cane
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The price of soy and beefand the strength of the dollar exert enormous influence over Amazon deforestation.
The decline in deforestationin 2005 and 2006 waspartially due to these 3 economic factors
Nepstad, Stickler, Almeida. 2006 Globalization of The Amazon soy and beef industries: Opportunities for conservation. Conservation Biology
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AMAZON SCENARIOS: Model Components
Landcover
Rain, T
Carbon
Landcover
Burned Area, Regrowth
1998Ppt-ET
The rainfall deficit
Logging
Agriculture
Ecology
Productivity
FlammabilityTerrestrialBiodiversity
Run-off, carbonSediments, toxins
Habitat, Hunting Food, r
Rainfall, T, rad
Economics
Aquatic Resources/Watershed Health
Climate
•Embrapa Amazonia Oriental•Instituto Nacional de Pesquisa Espacial/Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Clima (INPE/CPTEC)•Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazonia (IPAM)•Instituto de Pesquisa Economica Aplicada (IPEA)•Univ. Federal Minas Gerais•Univ. Federal Para•Univ. Federal Acre•Univ. Federal Rondonia•Univ. Sao Paulo
•Boston University•Duke University•Stanford University/Carnegie Institute•University Virginia•Woods Hole Research Center•Yale University
Amazon Scenarios Institutions
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A Multi-disciplinary Team
Climatology:
Ecology/Biology:
Economics:
Geography:
Hydrology:
Mathematics & Computation:
Policy Applications:
Remote Sensing:
Roni Avissar, C. Nobre, P. Dias, J. Tomasella
D. Nepstad, R. Houghton, M. Coe, P. Brando,G. Cardinot, C. Azevedo-Ramos, P. Moutinho, Moacyr B. Filho
Frank Merry, R. Kaufmann, O. Almeida, M.C. Vera-Diaz, G. Amacher, S. Rivero, E. Reis
Britaldo, A. Alencar, C. Stickler, D. McGrath, P. Lefebvre
Mike Coe, Marcos Costa
B. Soares, H. Rodrigues, W. Little
Paulo Moutinho, D. Nepstad, F. Brown, G. Carvalho
Josef Kellndorfer, G. Asner
Coordination: D. Nepstad, Britaldo Soares-Filho
Soares, Nepstad, Curran et al. 2006. Nature
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2050 Business-as-Usual Scenario:Deforested 2.7 million km2
Forest 3.3 million km2
Non-forest 1.5 million km2
Soares, Nepstad,Curran, et al. 2006 Nature32 Pg C
2050 Governance Scenario:Deforested 1.7 million km2
Forest 4.4 million km2
Non-forest 1.5 million km2
17 Pg CSoares, Nepstad, Curran et al. 2006 Nature
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Logging will double?
Potential profitabillity 2005
Logged forest, full access 2030
•504 sawmill surveys•Logging will double in 20 years (even with no access to protected areas)•“Opportunity cost” of protected areas will =
$200M/yr
Amazon timber industry
F. Merry, B. Soares-Filho, D. Nepstad, et al. Submitted, PNAS
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Soy expansion limited by soils (and climate)
Potential Soybean Expansion (with Pavement of the Cuiabá-Santarém Highway): ~25%
Vera Diaz, Kaufmann, Nepstad, SchlesingerIn press, Ecological Economics
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Drought + logging + fire =
large-scale “scrubification”
How do Amazon trees avoid seasonal drought?
Nepstad, Carvalho, Davidson, et al. 1994 Nature; Jipp, Nepstad, Carvalho, et al. 1997 Climatic Change
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Rainfall Exclusion Experiment, Tapajos: 2000-2005
Nepstad, Tohver, Ray, et al. In press. Ecology
•Stemwood growth highly sensitive to drought; ½ of ANPP•Little change in litterfall or soil respiration
Brando, Nepstad, Cardinot, In prep.;Davidson, Ishida, Nepstad, 2004. GCB
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Tree Mortality:
•Large canopy trees are most vulnerable to drought
•Lianas and trees more vulnerable than palms
Plant Available Soil Water (% of max)
A soil moisture threshold?
(Litterfall and soil respiration unresponsive)
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Forest fire spread =
f(VPD, LAI, height)
Ray, Nepstad, Moutinho, 2005. Ecol. Appl
Scaling up: Estimating soil water-holding
capacity across the Basin
Nepstad, Lefebvre, da Silva, Tomasella, et al. 2004. GCB
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~100 Pg C in Amazon trees;
2005 drought = >0.5 Pg release
SusceptibilityForest Fire
Logging
Forest Fire
Positive vegetation feedback
Nepstad, Carvalho, Barros et al. 2001 FE&M
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Prescribed burn experiment, Fazenda Tanguro, MatoGrosso
Prescribed burn experiment, Mato Grosso
•During third consecutive burn, fuel limitations
•Cutter ants inhibit fire spread
•The transition forest is fire resistant (low tree mortality)
J. Balch, D. Nepstad, P. Brando, et al. Unpublished
GRASS!
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Global Warming, Regional Drying
Tree Mortality
Drought
Grass/herb invasion
RanchingForest Fire
Logging
But forest degradation through fire, drought, and thinning couldovertake clear-cutting as a source GHG emissions
Landcover 2030?
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A carbon market is near
Historical markers:
•UNFCCC-L2 process•ABIOVE moratorium on Amazon soy•Responsible Soy Roundtable: EU animal ratio buyers•Loans with environmental conditions•Next: ecological beef supplying the biggest markets?
Compensated Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Tropical Deforestation and
Degradation
•Compensation for nation-wide reductions in emissions during the period 2013-2018 (against a
“reference scenario”
•Support from European Community (will increase their emissions reduction targets 5%)
•Support from the “Coalition for Rainforest Nations”
Santilli, Moutinho, et al. 2005 Climatic Change
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Marginal Cost of Reducing C Emissions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Millions of Tons of Carbon
Dol
lars
per
ton
of C
arbo
n
Less
soy
, ce r
rad o
Less
soy
, tra
nsiti
on fo
rest
Less
soy
, den
s e fo
r est
Less
pas
ture
ex p
ansi
on
Less
cle
ari n
g o f
ma r
gina
l lan
d
Re d
ucin
g f o
res t
fire
s
Nepstad & Merry, unpublished
$0.6 billion/year(opportunity costs of zero deforestation)
$0.2 billion/year(opportunity costs of 90% reduction)
Evidence of frontier governance
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Campos & Nepstad, 2006, Cons. Biology
The “Terra do Meio” initiative: started by smallholders of the Transamazon(supported by ISA, IPAM, ED, WHRC)
22 million hectares of new reserves; will avoid 1 billion tons C by 2015
Supported by “Regional Planning with Teeth” along the BR-163 highway
Campos & Nepstad 2006 Cons. Biol
Commodity markets demanding stewardship
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Taming industry?
•IFC loan to Grupo Maggi (soy): 900 farmers bringing their properties into compliance with the law•ABIOVE/Greenpeace moratorium: major buyers will not buy soy grown on Amazon land cleared after July 2006.•Responsible Soy Roundtable: 20% of world’s soy market has committed to purchasing certified soy•Finance institutions: ABN-AMRO, Rabobank, IFC, Banco do Brasil: demanding better socio-environmental performance
Nepstad, Stickler, Almeida. 2006. Cons. Biol.
Blairo Maggi:
World’s largest soy producer
Governor of Mato Grosso
Favorite target of environmentalists
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Conclusion:•Deforestation will accelerate, driven by demands for biofuel and animal ration; land use will eat much/most of the forest before it dies
•Episodic drought, logging, and fire will influence 1/4th of the forest with no climate change if climate is like the last decade
•Frontier governance feasible
•Carbon markets and commodity markets may soon provide an important counter-balance
Fazenda Tanguro: Grupo Maggi
Fazenda Tanguro: 82,000 ha
A laboratorio of “best practices”
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