international climate policy – from warsaw to paris
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International climate policy From Warsaw to Paris
Ecofys webinar
Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 30/01/2014
© ECOFYS | |
International climate policy
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 2
The EU has saved the climate negotiations… … but not yet the climate.
We need an emergency plan!
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
2010 2015 2020
Glo
bal G
HG
em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2e
/a)
Ambitious end of national reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e
Confirmed national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e
Business as usual56 GtCO2e
Photo: Leila Mead/IISD
© ECOFYS | |
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 3
1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol
2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol
Objective: “Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Principle: “The Parties should protect the climate system on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.”
© ECOFYS | |
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 4
1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol
2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol
> Emission reduction targets for developed countries (in aggregate 5% below 1990 in 2008 to 2012)
> Flexibility in reaching targets International emission trading / joint
implementation Clean Development Mechanism (offset projects)
© ECOFYS | |
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 5
1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol
2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol
First Kyoto Protocol Then treaty with all
countries
No Kyoto Protocol First a treaty with all
countries
© ECOFYS | |
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 6
1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol
2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol
2007 Bali Action Plan
2009 Copenhagen
2011 Cancun Agreements
2012 Durban platform
2015 New agreement 2020
Kyoto Protocol track
UNFCCC track
Durban Platform > Copenhagen Accord agreed – falling short of expectations
> But All countries agreed that global temperature increase
should be limited to 2°C All major emitters proposed emission reduction
targets for 2020
© ECOFYS | |
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 7
1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol
2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol
2007 Bali Action Plan
2009 Copenhagen
2010 Cancun Agreements
2012 Durban platform
2015 New agreement 2020
Kyoto Protocol track
UNFCCC track
Durban Platform First Kyoto Protocol Then treaty with all
countries
No Kyoto Protocol First a treaty with all
countries
Ok, Kyoto Protocol only for the EU, but only with a date for a
treaty with all countries
© ECOFYS | |
Timeline of the UN climate negotiations
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 8
1992 UNFCCC 1997 Kyoto Protocol
2001 Rules of the Kyoto Protocol
2007 Bali Action Plan
2009 Copenhagen
2010 Cancun Agreements
2011 Durban platform
2015 New agreement 2020
Kyoto Protocol track
UNFCCC track
Durban Platform
Photo: Flickr/UNFCCC
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Climate negotiations over time
Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
Emission reductions > Agreement of limit global temperature increase to 2°C > Emission reduction proposals for all major countries for 2020 > Kyoto Protocol with moderate targets until 2020 and limited participation Financing > From 10 billion US$ (2010/11/12) to 100 billion US$ per year (2020) > Green Climate Fund as new financing channel > New forms of cooperation, e.g. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), forestry (REDD+) Reporting > Biennial reporting of emissions and policies
30/01/2014 9
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What could be in a 2015 agreement?
> Global goal, e.g. “phase out of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2050”
> National emissions reduction commitments > Commitments on financial contributions > Measures and goals for adaptation A possible proposal: Haites et al. 2013 http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Idees-pour-le-debat/WP1613_EH%20FY%20NH_legal%20agreement%202015.pdf
Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
Proposal:Commitment and equity principle
Technical review and questions
Final 2020-23 Commitment
More ambitious 2024-27
commitment
Sufficient?
YesYes
No
30/01/2014 10
© ECOFYS | |
International climate policy
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 11
The EU has saved the climate negotiations… … but not yet the climate.
We need an emergency plan!
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
2010 2015 2020
Glo
bal G
HG
em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2e
/a)
Ambitious end of national reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e
Confirmed national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e
Business as usual56 GtCO2e
Photo: Leila Mead/IISD
© ECOFYS | |
The emissions gap
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 12
www.climateactiontracker.org
© ECOFYS | |
EU
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 13
> 20% below 1990 in 2020 > 30% below 1990 if there is a global ambitious agreement
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USA
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 14
> 17% below 2005 > Possible if new climate plan is really implemented
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China
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 15
> Pledge: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005 by 2020, share of non-fossil fuels of 15% by 2020, forest cover
> Policies: top 10 000 company programme, support for renewables, low carbon zones, emission trading systems, efficiency standards for cars and trucks, regional ban of new coal fired power plants, …
© ECOFYS | |
National climate policy
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 16
Countries responsible for 67% of global emissions have national climate legislation or strategy Source: Dubash et al. 2013 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2013.845409
© ECOFYS | |
Climate Action Tracker
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 17
© ECOFYS | |
International climate policy
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 18
The EU has saved the climate negotiations… … but not yet the climate.
We need an emergency plan!
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
2010 2015 2020
Glo
bal G
HG
em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2e
/a)
Ambitious end of national reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e
Confirmed national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e
Business as usual56 GtCO2e
Photo: Leila Mead/IISD
© ECOFYS | |
Simple view Complex view
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 19
UNFCCC climate treaty
National government action
Source: Draft of IPCC Fifth
Assessment Report
© ECOFYS | |
Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global action on climate change
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 20
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Top-
1000
com
pani
es e
miss
ion
redu
ctio
n Su
pply
chai
n em
issio
n re
duct
ions
Gree
n fin
anci
al in
stitu
tions
Volu
ntar
y of
fset
com
pani
es
Volu
ntar
y of
fset
con
sum
ers
Maj
or c
ities
initi
ativ
e Su
b-na
tiona
l gov
ernm
ents
Build
ing
heat
ing
and
cool
ing
Ban
of in
cand
esce
nt la
mps
Elec
tric
appl
ianc
esCa
rs &
truc
ks e
miss
ion
redu
ctio
n Bo
ost s
olar
pho
tovo
ltaic
ene
rgy
Boos
t win
d en
ergy
Ac
cess
to e
nerg
y thr
ough
low
-em
issio
n op
tions
Phas
ing
out s
ubsid
ies
for f
ossil
fuel
sIn
tern
atio
nal a
viat
ion
and
mar
itim
e tr
ansp
ort
Fluo
rinat
ed ga
ses
initi
ativ
eRe
duce
def
ores
tatio
n Ag
ricul
ture
Shor
t liv
ed c
limat
e fo
rcer
sEf
ficie
nt c
ooks
tove
s
Glob
al G
HG e
miss
ions
(GtC
O2e
/a)
Included in low ambition pledgeIncluded only in high ambition pledgeAdditional to pledges
2° C range
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2010 2015 2020
Glo
bal G
HG
em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2e
/a)
Ambitious end of national reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e
Confirmed national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e
Business as usual56 GtCO2e
Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html
© ECOFYS | |
Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global action on climate change
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 21
Top-1000 companies emission reduction
Supply chain emission reductions
Green financial institutions
Voluntary offset companies
Companies’ emissions
Voluntary offsets consumers
Major cities initiative
Sub-national governments
Other actors
Buildings heating and cooling
Ban of incandescent lamps
Electric appliances
Cars and trucks emission reductions
Energy efficiency
Intl. aviation and maritime transport
Fluorinated gases initiative
Reduce deforestation
Agriculture
Special sectors
Methane and other air pollutants
Efficient cook stoves
Methane and other air pollutants Boost solar
photovoltaic energy
Boost wind energy
Access energy through low emission options
Energy supply
Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels
Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html
© ECOFYS | |
Cooperative initiatives
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 22
> Energy efficiency with significant potential, up to 2 GtCO2e by 2020. It is already covered by a substantial number of initiatives. Focus and coherency is needed.
> Fossil-fuel subsidy reform with varying estimates of the reduction potential: 0.4–2 GtCO2e by 2020. The number of initiatives and clear commitments in this area is limited.
> Methane and other short-lived climate pollutants as a mix of several sources. Reducing methane emissions from fossil-fuel production has received particular attention in the literature. This area is covered by several specific initiatives and one that is overarching.
> Renewable energy with particularly large potential: 1–3 GtCO2e by 2020. Several initiatives have been started in this area. Focus and coherency is needed.
Quelle: UNEP emissions gap report http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/
© ECOFYS | |
Interntional climate policy
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 23
The EU has saved the climate negotiations… … but not yet the climate.
We need an emergency plan!
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
2010 2015 2020
Glo
bal G
HG
em
issi
ons
(GtC
O2e
/a)
Ambitious end of national reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e
Confirmed national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e
Business as usual56 GtCO2e
Photo: Leila Mead/IISD
© ECOFYS | |
Thank you for your attention!
Ecofys Germany GmbH Dr. Niklas Höhne Am Wassermann 36 50829 Cologne Germany T: +49 (0)221 27070-101 E: n.hoehne@ecofys.com I: www.ecofys.com
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 24
© ECOFYS | |
Stabilization of the climate
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 25
Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001
© ECOFYS | |
Historical emissions
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 26
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3x 10
7 Annex IE
mis
sion
s in
Tg
CO
2eq.
Year
N2OCH4Forestry CO2Fossil CO2
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3x 10
7 Non-Annex I
Em
issi
ons
in T
g C
O2e
q.
Year
N2OCH4Forestry CO2Fossil CO2
© ECOFYS | |
Future emissions
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 27
© ECOFYS | |
The challenges of 2°C with current pledges
30/01/2014 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Glob
al G
HG e
miss
ions
(GtC
O2e
)
Year
Historical emissions
1996 - EU agrees on 2°C limit, which meant - Ambitious but realistic reduction rates
- Delayed participation of developing countries possible - Choice of technology possible
- Opportunities for innovation and energy security
2012 - Today: 2°C limit means - Last chance, action before 2020 necessary
- Instantaneous change by all actors - Opportunities for innovation and energy security
- Unprecedented reduction rates necessary
Future emissions
given pledges
2020 – planned entry into force of new climate agreement: 2°C limit means
- High probability that 2°C limit is missed - Instantaneous change by all actors
- Unprecedented reduction rates necessary - All technologies necessary
- Shutdown of equipment before its end of life
© ECOFYS | |
Decisions in Warsaw on the timing of commitments
Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 30/01/2014 29
> “… initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended nationally determined contributions… and to communicate them well in advance of [COP21 (2015)] (by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so)”
> “identify, by [COP20 (2014)] the information that Parties will provide when putting forward their contributions”
© ECOFYS | |
Decision in Warsaw on pre-2020 ambition
> “Intensifying, as from 2014, the technical examination of opportunities for actions with high mitigation potential, … with a view to promoting voluntary cooperation …
> … sharing … of experiences and best practices of cities and subnational authorities…”
Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com 30/01/2014 30
© ECOFYS | |
Possible processes to determine commitments
Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com
Equity Reference Framework
(optional)
Proposals
Negotiations
Review of aggregated
proposalsIndividual review
Fixing in agreement
Ratchet up (optional)
Sufficient?
YesNo
Sufficient?
Yes No
Agreed?
YesNo
30/01/2014 31
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