iroquois gas transmission system, lp - platts · iroquois gas transmission system, lp ... iroquois...
Post on 06-Nov-2018
228 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Iroquois Gas Transmission System, LP
Offering Market Diversity & Increased
Value to PA Marcellus Suppliers
Platts 5th Annual Pipeline Development & Expansion Conference
Houston, TX
September 23, 2010
Scott E. Rupff
Vice President - Marketing, Development & Commercial Operations
Forward-Looking Statement Disclaimer
This publication may contain various forward-looking statements. Suchforward-looking statements are based on current expectations, are notguarantees of future performance and include assumptions about future marketconditions, operations and results. Iroquois can give no assurance that suchexpectations will be achieved. Among the many factors that could causeactual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statementsherein are: future demand and prices for natural gas; availability of supplies ofCanadian natural gas; regulatory, political, legislative and judicialdevelopments, particularly with regard to regulation by the Federal EnergyRegulatory Commission; the timing and cost of Iroquois’ expansion projects;competitive conditions in the marketplace; changes in the receptivity of thefinancial markets to Iroquois or other oil and gas credits similar to Iroquoisand, accordingly, our strategy for financing any such change in businessstrategy or expansions.
Discussion Points
Iroquois 101: Marketplace Overview & Changing Supply Dynamics
Marcellus’ 4th Wave: Destination Iroquois – A Better Alternative for Producers than a Converging M3/Z6 NY Marketplace
Iroquois’ WTC Project: A New Market Outlet for TGP Capacity Holders
Iroquois’ NYMarc Project: Connecting Millennium and TGP Supplies to Iroquois’ Market
Iroquois 101
Marketplace Overview & Changing Supply
Dynamics
Iroquois Gas Transmission System
Commenced operations in 1991
416-mile single line (30” and 24”) pipeline system running from the Canadian border at Waddington, NY to Long Island and New York City, NY
106,400 HP of compression (7 stations)
1.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of peak deliverability
Physical Receipt Interconnects with TransCanada PipeLines and Algonquin
MAOP = 1,440 psig
Mainline Interzone Rate = $0.37/Dt (Max. Fuel = 1%)
Eastchester Rate = $0.635/Dt (Max. Fuel = 4.5%)
Iroquois’ Ownership Structure
A Delaware Limited Partnership
TransCanada Pipelines Limited 44.48%
Dominion Resources, Inc. 24.72%
National Grid U.S. 20.40%
New Jersey Resources 5.53%
Energy East Corp. 4.87%
100.0%
Iroquois’ Connected Market – New York
Apr 09 – Mar 10 (MMcf/d) Local Distribution Companies Max. Day Avg. Day
– National Grid (Long Island & Upstate NY) 363 168– Con Edison(Bronx, NYC) 305 125– Central Hudson 58 15– St. Lawrence 2 3– NYSEG 2 1
730 312
Power Plants– Northport Power Station 87 95– New Athens Generating 103 114
190 209
Pipelines– Dominion 26 33– Tennessee (200 Line) 239 111
265 144
Total NY 1,185 665
Iroquois’ Connected Market – Connecticut
Apr 09 – Mar 10 (MMcf/d) Local Distribution Companies Max. Day Avg. Day
– Southern CT Gas 13 15– Yankee Gas 28 11
41 26 Power Plants
– Milford Power Station 81 71– Bridgeport Power Station 71 52
152 123 Pipelines
– Algonquin 35 39– Tennessee (300 Line) 103 34
138 73
Total CT 331 222
Total NY + CT 1,516 887
Iroquois Scheduled Receipts
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Jan-
08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-08
Sep-0
8
Nov
-08
Jan-
09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-09
Sep-0
9
Nov
-09
Jan-
10
Mar
-10
May
-10
Date
Dt/
Day
Waddington
Wright
Brookfield
Total
Aug 09 – Jul 10 = 887 MDt/d
TCPL Contract Expiry Profile at Iroquois(TCPL Index of Shippers as of 9/1/10)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year
Dt/
d
Dawn Empress
Firm Contracts To Waddington – 11/1/10
TCPL = 651 MDt/d
IGTS = 1,003 MDt/d
Marcellus’ 4th Wave:
Destination Iroquois – A Better Alternative for
Producers than a Converging M3/Z6 NY
Marketplace
The Infrastructure Build-Out for Marcellus
1st Wave: Backhauls/Greater Liquidity Plays– TGP Backhauls (contracted 2008 - 2010) = 350 MDt/d
– TGP Backhauls (contracted 2011 - 2012) = 586 MDt/d
– DTI Marcellus Northeast Project (Various) = 150 MDt/d
– Spectra TEAM Project (Range Resources) = 150 MDt/d
– TGP 300 Line Expansion (Equitable Resources) = 350 MDt/d
2nd Wave: Targeting NYC/NJ– TGP Northeast Upgrade Project (CHK/Statoil) = 636 MDt/d
– Spectra NJ/NY Project (CHK/Statoil/Con Edison) = 800 MDt/d
– Transco Northeast Supply Link (Suez/Various) = 420 MDt/d
3rd Wave: Supplying Canada– National Fuel Northern Access Expansion (Statoil) = 320 MDt/d
– National Fuel Tioga Expansion (East Resources) = 350 MDt/d
– TGP NSD Project (Anadarko, Seneca, Cabot) = 150 MDt/d
Marcellus Outlet Infrastructure = > 3.3 Bcf/d
Northeast Gas Demand Outlook (Source: PIRA)
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
BC
F/D
(C
han
ge)
12 vs. 08 -0.01 0.01 -0.25 -0.06 -0.32
15 vs. 12 0.16 0.13 0.68 0.04 1.02
20 vs. 15 0.26 0.39 -0.14 0.08 0.58
Residential Commercial Electric Industrial Total
Northeast includes: Mid-Atlantic & New England
20 vs. 08 = 1.3 BCF/D
Canadian Gas Demand Outlook, Up 3.4%/Year(Source: Ziff Energy Group)
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bcf/dAlberta 41% Market Share
Tcf/yr
Growing 4.0%/Yr
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bcf/dQuebec 6% Tcf/yr
Down 0.3%/Yr
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bcf/dSaskatchewan 7%
Tcf/yr
Growing 3.4%/Yr
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bcf/dManitoba 2%
Tcf/yr
Growing 1.4%/Yr
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bcf/dOntario 34%
Tcf/yr
Residential
Commercial
Electrical
Oil Sands
Residential
Commercial
Electrical
Industrial
Maritimes 1%
0.0
0.5
1.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bcf/d
0.0
0.2
0.4
Tcf/yr
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bcf/dBritish Columbia 9%
Tcf/yr
Growing 1.0%/Yr
TCPL/Iroquois Interconnect @ Waddington
Projected Annual LNG Imports (Source: Wood Mackenzie)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Mm
cfd
Lake Charles Everett Cove Elba
Freeport Golden Pass Sabine Cheniere Gulf (Pascagoula)
Cameron Baja Canaport Energy Bridge
Altamira Manzanillo New England Gateway Neptune
Northeast LNG Facilities
Northeast Gas Supply Key Points
Marcellus, Rockies & LNG displacing Canadian and
Gulf supplies
– Marcellus: 4-7 Bcf/d by 2017
– REX: 1-2 Bcf/d available
– Canadian imports losing market share
LNG remains a big wildcard – Will Northeast
terminals be an attractive destination?
– NBP vs. Henry Hub
– Continued strength in Asian and European demand
Too Bearish?
Marcellus Production Forecast (Source: Wood Mackenzie – 4/10)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Bcf
/d
Projected 2015 = 3.2 Bcf/d
Projected 2020 = 6.2 Bcf/d
Need for 4th Wave of Infrastructure to
Market?
Market Opportunities: Ontario, New England,
and the NYF System “Back Door” –
Long Island, Astoria/Queens, Bronx/NYC
Too Bearish on Production?
Northeast Market Basis Forecast(Source: Wood Mackenzie)
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2009$/m
mbtu
Transco Z6 NY TX Eastern M-3 Algonquin Tenn. Z6
Forecasted Convergence of Z6NY & M3
East of the Hudson River –Are the Forward Curves Under-Valuing the Proposition?
Iroquois Zone 2/Columbia Gas Appalachia Spread
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
No
v-0
7
Jan
-08
Mar-
08
May
-08
Jul-
08
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8
Jan
-09
Mar-
09
May
-09
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
No
v-0
9
Jan
-10
Mar-
10
May
-10
Jul-
10
Sep
-10
No
v-1
0
Jan
-11
Mar-
11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Jan
-12
Mar-
12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Jan
-13
Mar-
13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
Date
$/D
t
Historical/GD Midpoint Projected/Platts M2M Forward Curve
36-Month Avg = $0.58
Col. Gas Appal. Basis = $0.08
34-Month Avg = $0.89
Col. Gas Appal. Basis = $0.24
Iroquois’ WTC Project
A New Market Outlet for TGP Capacity Holders
Iroquois’ WTC Project
WTC Project
In-Service = 8/1/12
CAPEX = $55 MM
MDQ = 375,000 Dt
Facilities = 15,400 Hp
Rate = $0.07/Dt
Fuel = 0.5%
Wright Transfer Compressor Configuration
TGP 200 Line
ZONE 1
ZONE 2
WRIGHT SMS
WRIGHT “B” SMS
Proposed
Wright
Transfer
Compressor
Existing
Wright
Mainline
Compressors
WTC Project
Current interconnect is delivery only– Transfer gas from TGP (500 psig) to IGTS (1200 psig)
– 15,400 HP, Two Solar T-60 turbines
– Length of lateral line to be determined
– Adjacent to existing compressor site
Open Season: August 30 – October 15, 2010
Utilize traditional FERC 7c filing process
Establish new Lateral Only rate schedule
FERC Certificate Filing: Q1 2011
Construction: Fall 2011
In-service: Summer 2012
Iroquois’ NYMarc ProjectConnecting Millennium & TGP Supplies
to Iroquois’ Market
Iroquois’ NYMarc Project
NYMarc Project
In-Service = 11/1/15
CAPEX = $475 MM
MDQ = 700,000 Dt
Facilities = 66 miles 36” pipe & Compression
15-Year Rate = $0.40/Dt
Fuel = 0.5%
Iroquois’ NYMarc Project
Template Source: Ray Sterner, John Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
NYMarc Project Facts
In-Service Date: 11/1/2015
CAPEX: $450-500 MM
Initial Capacity: 500 MDt/d (expandable to 2 Bcf/d)
15-year Fixed Rates: $0.40/Dt
– Fuel < 0.5%
– Tertiary access to forward haul Mainline Delivery Points
Discounted firm Mainline backhaul rates
– To TGP 200 Line/Wright: $0.10/Dt
– To TCPL/Waddington: $0.15/Dt
Ability to expand Mainline into New York Facilities
System
– Long Island, Astoria/Queens, Bronx
$-
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
$0.35
$0.40
$0.45
$0.50
500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
Quantity (MDt/d)
Ra
te (
$/D
t)
Recourse Rate 15-Year Fixed Rate
Fuel < 0.5%
NYMarc Economic Expandability
Potential Incremental Loads – IGTS Mainline
Upstream of Pleasant Valley
– New England markets via TGP 200 Line (Wright)
– Upstate NY markets via DTI (Canajoharie)
– Eastern Canadian markets via TCPL (Waddington)
Downstream of Pleasant Valley
– Advance Power - Dover, NY (1000 MW)
– Northport Re-powering Project (1582 MW)
– Astoria Energy Phase II (740 MW)
– ConEdison LDC @ Hunts Point
– National Grid-LI LDC @ South Commack
– Connecticut LDCs
Working with Iroquois/The Benefits
Access to premium basis markets
Access to under-supplied firm transportation capacity holders (LDCs)
Access to high load-factor merchant generating facilities
Access to the “back door” of the New York Facilities System
– National Grid/LIPA on Long Island (South Commack)
– Con Edison/NYPA in the Bronx (Hunts Point)
Competitively priced backhauls to Eastern Canadian markets (TCPL/Waddington)
– Ontario power generation
– GMi and Consumers Gas
Iroquois Contacts
Name Title Phone Email
Scott Rupff Vice President -
Marketing, Development &
Commercial Operations
203-925-7291 scott_rupff@iroquois.com
Todd White Director -
Market Development & Customer
Service
203-925-7284 todd_white@iroquois.com
Rob Perless Project Development Manager 203-944-7016 robert_perless@iroquois.com
Bill Hansen Market Development Manager 203-925-7256 bill_hansen@iroquois.com
Maria Nemchek Capacity Marketing Manager 203-944-7004 maria_nemchek@iroquois.com
Lisa Krohne Manager -
Transportation Services
203-925-7283 lisa_krohne@iroquois.com
Gina Ferreri Contracting & Credit Services
Representative
203-925-7229 gina_ferreri@iroquois.com
top related