is toward the preparation of environmental legislation on ... · toward the preparation of...

Toward the preparation of environmental legislation on the

basis of scientific evidence

Nicola Pirrone Director

CNR – Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy

INSPIRE CONFERENCE Side Event on "Information for Innovation and Socioeconomic Development"

International Workshop at the Crossroad of Earth Information, Technology

and Social Sciences June 23 – 24, 2013, Florence, Italy

The Challange for Environmental policy

is...

……to make best use of research results and

new scientific findings in policy development and implementation.

McCormick (2001). Environmental Policy in the European Union. The European Series, Palgrave.

Bührs (1991) The Politics of Clean and Green. Oxford

University Press.

Etymology of “Environmental Policy”

Environmental primarily refers to the ecological dimension (ecosystems), but also to the social dimension (quality of life) and to

the economic dimension (resource management).

Policy can be defined as a "course of actions or principles adopted or proposed by a government, party, business or

individual”. Thus, environmental policy focuses on problems arising from human impact on the environment, which retroacts onto human society by having a (negative) impact on human values such as good

health or the 'clean and green' environment.

Source: McCormick, John (2001). Environmental Policy in the European Union. The European Series, Palgrave. Bührs, (1991) The Politics of Clean and Green. Oxford University Press.

The Science-Policy Loop It is a multi-step process:

• Discovery of health issues related to the use of hazardous substances or/and its release to the environment by human activities (i.e., Minamata (1953-1960), Niigata (1960-1965); Ul Hac (1956); Iraq (1956-1960) contaminated fish and seeds grain).

• Evaluation of DRIVERS acting on environment and human health / human welfare.

• Evaluation of EXPOSURE patterns for wildlife species and humans. • Evaluation of SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES. • Risk assessment Scale of IMPACT (local regional global). • First policy development Policy Implementation & Geographical

Scale (i.e., country, continental, global) • Evaluation of Benefits & Costs • Review of the Policy Improve its effectiveness • Science-Policy Loop iterations

Interlink between Drivers-Impact-Policy

PRESSUREMeans by which at least one Driver causes or contributes

to a change in State.

DRIVERActivity or process

intended to enhance human welfare.

IMPACTA change in human

welfare attributable to a change in State.

STATEAttribute(s) of the

natural environment that reflect its

integrity as regards a specified issue.

External Variability

RESPONSEAn initiative intended to reduce at least one

Impact.

HUMAN DOMAIN ECOSYSTEMS

Socio-Economic Scenarios: BAU PT DG

Policy Actions

GAIN & LOSSES

Priority Air Pollutants of Global Concern

Ozone

Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs)

Mercury

Particulate Matter (PM)

CNR – Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy http://www.iia.cnr.it

Major Atmospheric Transport Routes of Air Pollutants

Source: HTAP Report, Part D

CNR - Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy http://www.iia.cnr.it

The International Framework

GEO Task HE-02 “Tracking Pollutants” - C1 “Global Mercury Observation System”

UNEP Mercury Program

Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants (TF HTAP) under the UNECE-LRTAP international conventions.

Regional programs

CNR – Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy http://www.iia.cnr.it

Global Pathways of Mercury

Source: Swain et al. (2007) Ambio 36, 45-61.

Global Supply Main regional sources include:

1. Minining and processing of primary mercury ores;

2. Mercury from decomissioning of cell chlor-alkali plants;

3. By-products mercury from non-ferrous metals manfg. and cleaning of natural gas;

4. Stocks of mercury from previous years (from mining, decom. chlor-alkali, etc.);

5. Mercury recovered or recycled from products containing mercury.

Mercury Trade

Source: Maxson, 2011 – personal comunication

Europe

China

USA

Interlink between Drivers-Impact-Policy

PRESSUREMeans by which at least one Driver causes or contributes

to a change in State.

DRIVERActivity or process

intended to enhance human welfare.

IMPACTA change in human

welfare attributable to a change in State.

STATEAttribute(s) of the

natural environment that reflect its

integrity as regards a specified issue.

External Variability

RESPONSEAn initiative intended to reduce at least one

Impact.

HUMAN DOMAIN ECOSYSTEMS

Socio-Economic Scenarios: BAU PT DG

Policy Actions

GAIN & LOSSES

Cost of Energy vs. Technology

0 50 100 150 200 250

Natural gas: Gas Turbine

Natural gas: CCGT

Natural gas: CCGT CCS

Oil: Diesel engine

Oil: CC Oil-fired Turbine

Coal: PF

Coal: PF CCS

Coal: CFBC

Coal: IGCC

Coal: IGCC CCS

Nuclear fission

Solid biomass

Biogas

Wind: On-shore farm

Wind: Off-shore farm

Hydro: Large

Hydro: Small

Solar: CSP

Solar: Photovoltaic

2020: Production Cost of Electricity [€2005/MWhel]

LO COE HI COE REF COE

Source: JRC - Inst. of Energy

Total Primary Energy Supply

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Hydro Nuclear CombustibleRenewables waste,geothermal, solar,

wind other

Natural Gas Coal and CoalProducts

Crude, NGL andFeedstocks

198720042030

- Source for 1987 and 2004 series: Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries (2006)

- Source for 2030 serie: Key World Energy Statistics (2007)

> 80%

Global Mercury Emissions

Volcanoes 90

Natural 5118

Forest fires 672

Oceans 2682

Forest & agriculture 1674

Anthropogenic 2320

Global Emission (2008): 7438 Mg yr-1

Source: Pirrone et al. ACP, 2010;

Why Anthropogenic Emissions Shall Be Regulated

- Emissions from Natural Sources/Processes cannot be regulated/controlled whereas the Anthropogenic ones can be.

- Depending on the latitude and time of the year, Natural sources release mostly Hg(0), whereas Anthropogenic sources may release all Hg species in % that depends on the source type;

- With the exception of Volcanoes, natural sources are primarily diffuse/areal sources whereas anthropogenic sources are primarily point sources different impact areas;

- Emissions from natural sources/processes are strongly dependent on meteorological conditions (time of the year) and latitudes whereas Emissions from anthropogenic sources are not;

- …….

Key Policy-Relevant Science Questions from ……

Individuals, NGOs;

Governments, regulatory bodies and business sectors at Country level;

Regulatory bodies at regional level (i.e., USA, Canada, Japan, EU, Asia, ….);

Regulatory bodies at global scale (i.e.,: UNEP Governing Council UNECE-LRTAP Task Force on HTAP OSPAR, HELCOM, Basel, Rotterdam, ACAP, MAP, ….

International Programs: GEO, GEF, UNIDO, UNEP, UNDP

UNECE-LRTAP TF HTAP Policy-Relevant Science Questions

How does the intercontinental or hemispheric transport affect deposition patterns in the NH ?

Is it possible to characterize source-receptor relationship taking into account the various mechanisms affecting its cycle (emission-chemistry-deposition-reemission) and the spatial scale (local-to-regional-to-global) ?

Are emission inventories consistent with observations ? Is the contribution of natural sources well characterized ? Is the assumption of steady-state still valid ? What about the

temporal variation of the residence time of different Hg compounds ? Besides speciated Hg measurements, what other key

measurements do we need to improve our models capabilities ? How deposition loads would change in the next 20-50 years if a

50% reduction will occur in Hg emissions ? How future changes in ozone and aerosol concentrations will

affect Hg fate and transport ?

Main steps of the “Mercury Policy Process”

2001 UNEP GC at its 21st session: need for a global assessment of mercury recognized

2003 Study “GMA Report“, prepared by UNEP presented to the GC at its 22nd session. GC agreed for further international action on mercury

2005 UNEP GC at its 23rd session called for Mercury Partnerships between governments and stakeholders: Five Partnership Areas were identified

UNEP F&T published “Dynamics of mercury pollution on regional and global scales” Springer, USA (Pirrone and Mahaffey, Eds.) 2005

UNEP GC at its 24th session: “two-track “ approach based on voluntary actions and on the path to LBI. An overarching framework for strengthening

UNEP Global Mercury Programme partnerships was developed 2007

AMAP and UNEP published “"The Global Atmospheric Mercury Assessment: Sources, Emissions and Transport” 2008

UNEP F&T published “Mercury Fate and Transport in the Global Atmosphere: Emissions, Measurements and Models” Springer, USA

(Pirrone and Mason, Eds.) 2008-2009

UNEP GC at its 25th session: agreed on an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) to prepare a legally binding instrument

on mercury 2009

INC’s work started in 2010 and will end in 2013 2010-2013

INC’s goal is to complete the negotiations before the 27th regular session of the

GC/Global Ministerial Environment Forum in 2013

Neg

otia

tion

s June 2010

January 2011

Oct-Nov 2011

June 2012

Early 2013

INC-1: Stockholm, Sweden

INC-2: Chiba, Japan

INC-3: Nairobi, Kenya

INC-4: Uruguay

Diplomatic Conf: Japan

Following the negotiations, the text will be open for signature at a diplomatic conference (Conference of Plenipotentiaries),

To be held in October 2013 in Japan

About INC

Key Issues to be Regulated in the LBI as Requested by the Governing Council / Global Ministerial

Environmental Forum

Storage of excess mercury, waste and contaminated sites; ……

Artisanal and small-scale gold mining; …….

Emissions to air and releases to water and land Response time of ecosystems to changes in

emissions;

Response time from industry to implement BAT / BEP

………

Trends and Global Hg-background Concentrations

• In the Northern Hemisphere 1.5 to 1.7 ng m-3

• In the Southern Hemisphere 1.1 to 1.3 ng m-3

Key Sources:

Sprovieri, F., Pirrone, N., Ebinghaus, R., Kock, H., and Dommergue, A. (2010) Worldwide atmospheric mercury measurements: a review and synthesis of spatial and temporal trends. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10, 8245-8265. Lindberg, S., Bullock, R., Ebinghaus, R., Engstrom, D., Feng, X., Fitzgerald, W., Pirrone, N., Prestbo, E. and Seigneur C. (2007) A Synthesis of Progress and Uncertainties in Attributing the Sources of Mercury in Deposition. Ambio, Vol. 36, No. 1, pp.19-32.

Chemical analysis of lake sediments, ice cores and peat deposits from both hemispheres indicates about a

threefold increase of mercury deposition since pre-industrial times

Interlink between Drivers-Impact-Policy

PRESSUREMeans by which at least one Driver causes or contributes

to a change in State.

DRIVERActivity or process

intended to enhance human welfare.

IMPACTA change in human

welfare attributable to a change in State.

STATEAttribute(s) of the

natural environment that reflect its

integrity as regards a specified issue.

External Variability

RESPONSEAn initiative intended to reduce at least one

Impact.

HUMAN DOMAIN ECOSYSTEMS

Socio-Economic Scenarios: BAU PT DG

Policy Actions

GAIN & LOSSES

Ensemble mean estimates of Hg0 concentration in air

B4. Global and regional modelling of Hg Global Hg concentration and deposition levels

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90

Latitude

Hg0 c

once

ntra

tion,

ng/

m3

North Americaλ = 85ºW

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90

Latitude

Hg0 c

once

ntra

tion,

ng/

m3 λ = 10єE Europe

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90

Latitude

Hg0 c

once

ntra

tion,

ng/

m3

λ = 110ºE East Asia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90

Latitude

Hg0 c

once

ntra

tion,

ng/

m3

λ = 150ºW Pacific Ocean

CTM-Hg GEOS-Chem GRAHM GLEMOS CMAQ-Hg ECHMERIT

Source: Travnikov, O. et al. (2010) Chapter 4. In: TF HTAP Report, Part B: Mercury (N. Pirrone and T. Keeting, Eds.)

B4. Global and regional modelling of Hg

Multi-model source attribution study provides consistent estimates of source relative contributions despite the significant differences in emissions and

chemistry between the models.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

GEOS-Che

m

GRAHM

GLEMOS

CMAQ-Hg

Dep

ositi

on fl

ux, g

/km2 /y

Europe

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

GEOS-Che

m

GRAHM

GLEMOS

CMAQ-Hg

Dep

ositi

on fl

ux, g

/km2 /y

North America

Source attribution for Hg deposition

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

GEOS-Che

m

GRAHM

GLEMOS

CMAQ-Hg

Dep

ositi

on fl

ux, g

/km2 /y

East Asia

Europe North America East Asia South Asia Other Natural & re-emission

Source: Travnikov, O. et al. (2010) Chapter 4. In: TF HTAP Report, Part B: Mercury (N. Pirrone and T. Keeting, Eds.)

A Global Mercury Observation System able to provide continuous information on mercury concentrations and fluxes in and between the atmospheric, marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems.

Validated regional and global scale atmospheric and marine models as well as socio-economic models

An International Observatory with the mandate to provide support to Policy Makers in the implementation of strategies and best practices to: Reduce the use of mercury for many industrial and commercial

applications and practices; Promote a safe storage of excess mercury at country or regional level; Support the implementation and future verification of the LBI (or Treaty

or Convention) at regional and continental scales; Run scenario analysis of different reduction strategies in order to meet

the requirements of international legislation on mercury pollution control and monitoring.

What is needed to Policy

Ground-Based Observation System

Oceanographic-Based Observation System

CNR – Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy http://www.iia.cnr.it

CNR – Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy http://www.iia.cnr.it

Aircraft-Based Tropospheric Program

CASA 212

Rockwell Turbo

e-logbook SOPs raw data dB

QA/QC dB

QA/QC

CNR – Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy http://www.iia.cnr.it

GMOS QA/QC Management System

CNR – Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy http://www.iia.cnr.it

SDI – QA/QC Online System

The GMOS-CI

Visualization and

Application Services/Tools

Discovery & Access

Services

Semantic Services

Security Services

Catalog, Access Servers

QA/QC Services

Brokering Services

CNR – Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy http://www.iia.cnr.it

The GMOS-CI G

roun

d-ba

sed

site

s

Aircraft campaigns

Cruise campaigns

Current data providers

CNR – Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research, Rome, Italy http://www.iia.cnr.it

To fill knowledge gaps on emissions, chemistry and transport patterns of mercury in air, soil and water ecosystems.

To promote and facilitate further Technological Development aimed to reduce the costs and increase the resolution (spatial) of observational systems.

To promote and facilitate the sharing of information and development of CIs.

To develop a Permanent Global Observatory to Monitor and Model mercury levels in the environment and human exposure pathways in support to Policy.

Concluding Remarks

What is the major challenge for Environmental Policy?

Thanks