jabin t jacob spirit, sciences po, bordeaux 9 april 2010

The States in India and Foreign Policy:

Interests, Influence and Implications

Jabin T JacobSPIRIT, Sciences Po, Bordeaux

9 April 2010

China and its Provincesunitary, single-party systemBeijing vs. provinceshierarchy of provinces

1949-1978 location, size leaders in Politb, PLA

post-1978 world trade, FDI education provincial diaspora

influence exercised1949-1978

budgets tenure of leaders openness to the outside

post-1978 preferential policies location of major events

India and its Provinces1947-1989 - federal, single-partypost-1989 – federal, multi-party,

reforms and opening up of economy

hierarchy of provinces 1947-1989

members in Parliament GDP

post-1989 world trade, FDI education, infrastructure provincial diaspora

influence exercised/constrained 1947-1989

members in Parliament location / national security

post-1989 coalition governments

Indian Provinces and Foreign Policy Legally, provinces have no right Executive negotiates, signs and

ratifies treaties Parliament only legislates to

implement ratified international agreements

In practice, provinces affect foreign policy:

who governments, parties, interest

groups why

events in province interest in events across

borders interest in treaties

results trade-offs domestically

2 Phases1947- 1989centrist Indian National Congress in power little or no provincial involvement or input visible in foreign

policy

post-1989provincial parties grow in powercoalition governments at the centreliberalization and growth of the Indian economyhigher degree of provincial input and interest in foreign

policy visible results in trade-offs domesticallyresults in complication of bilateral relations with other

countries

India and its Neighbourhood

Provincial India and its Neighbourhood

Provincial India and its Neighbourhood

Provincial India and its Neighbourhoodoriginal reasons for the division of the Indian

subcontinent religion, language

60-odd years of international borders language and slang, customs, trade routes changefamily links weaken

strong centripetal / “provinpetal” forceshistorical memory remains strongethnic linkagesfamily links survive, marriage across bordersdevelopment of technology and communication

supports irredentismprovincial governments in India and China are

becoming stronger want to take advantage of ethnic and historical

linkages economic reasons – competition with other

provinces

Kashmir – Pakistan, China

1947-1989India x PakIndia x ChinaNew Delhi x

Kashmir

post-1989New Delhi x

KashmirIndia x PakIndia x China

NE India – China, Bangladesh, SE Asia1947-1989India x ChinaIndia x NE provincial

interest groups

post-1989New Delhi + NE

provincial governmentsNew Delhi x NE provincial

interest groups India x/+ ChinaIndia x/+ BangladeshIndia +/x MyanmarIndia + Southeast Asia

Tamil Nadu – Sri Lanka, Malaysia

1947-1991India +/x SLTamil Nadu x SLNew Delhi x Tamil

Nadu

post-1991, 2007Tamil Nadu x/+ SL India + SL New Delhi x/+ Tamil NaduTamil Nadu +/x MalaysiaIndia + Malaysia

Gujarat – Africa

1947-1989India + AfricaGujarat +/? Africa

post-1989, 2008India + KenyaNew Delhi x GujaratGujarat ? Africa

Kerala – ASEAN1947-1989India +/- ASEANKerala +/? ASEAN

post-1989, 2009India + ASEANNew Delhi +/x

KeralaKerala ?/x ASEAN

Implicationscentre-province relations in India

increasing political power of provinces at the centre greater activism and interest or capacity for

intervention in foreign policy matters will the Indian Parliament have a greater say in

India’s international affairs?trade-offs by centre to provinces over foreign

policy issues Kerala and ASEAN FTA Northeast India and Look East Policy?

inter-provincial competition for trade and FDI

Implicationsimpact on Indian foreign policy

affects India’s relations with other countries ethnic issues, diaspora linkages

Tamil Nadu – Sri Lanka, Malaysia Punjab –Pakistan, Canada, US, France Gujarat – Kenya

affects India’s ability to negotiate Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, 2008 – provincial parties India-ASEAN FTA, 2003-2009 - Kerala

for the rest of the world foreign governments need to pay attention to

local/provincial conditions and politicsforeign governments can influence provinces

inter-provincial competition for trade and FDI

Two Punjabs

West Bengal and Bangladesh

An Older India