jallc update and social network analysis exercise steadfast … · 2019. 8. 9. · john redmayne...

NATO OA Workshop

JALLC Update and

Social Network Analysis

Exercise

STEADFAST JUNO 2010

John Redmayne

JALLC PORA 16 June 2011

Agenda

• Introduction to JALLC

• Review of recent projects

• Social Network Analysis in Exercise

STEADFAST JUNO 2010 (Dec 2010)

• E-mails

Introduction to JALLC

JALLC Mission

• MC 510

– Perform joint analysis of operations,

training, exercises, and experimentation

– Establish and maintain an interactive,

managed Lessons Learned Database

• 2010 POW

– Outreach to other NATO HQs, NATO

bodies, NATO nations and Partners

JALLC in the new ACT Structure

HQ SACT Norfolk, USA

SACTREPEUR, NATO HQ Brussels, BEL

Strategic

Plans, Policy

Integrated

Resource

Management

Capability

Development

Joint Force

Trainer

SACTREPEUR NATO HQ (Brussels, Bel)

Joint Warfare

Centre

Stavanger, NOR

Joint Forces

Training Centre

Bydgoszcz, POL

Interaction with

ACT required

NATO

Agencies/Bodies

NC3A

NSA

USJFCOM

Coordination with

ACT required

Centres of

Excellence

JALLC

Monsanto, PRT

NURC

La Spezia, ITA

Coordination with

ACT required

NATO Education

Facilities

NATO CIS School

Latina, ITA

NMIOTC

Souda Bay, GRC

NATO Defence

College

Rome, ITA

NATO School

Oberammergau,

DEU ACT SEE SHAPE (Mons, BEL)

MCD

SHAPE

(Mons, BEL)

Bi-SC Division

JALLC Organization

Commander

Chief of Staff

Production

Branch

7

Lessons Learned

Analysis Branch

22

Budget and

Finance Branch

3

Operations

Branch

4

Communications

& Information

Svstems

Management

Branch

4

Exercise/Training

and

Experimentation

Branch

3

Admin/Registry

Branch

3

Assistant

Coordination

Officer

Total PE = 50

Partnership Staff

Element

1

NCSA SE

Monsanto

4

Support to ISAF

Recent Reports

• OMLTs (E)

• Targeting (E)

• ISAF PRTs & CIMIC (E)

• Intelligence C2 & ISR (E)

• Info Sharing in ISAF (E)

• ISAF Logistics Operations (E)

• Strategic Communication (E)

• ISAF LL Process (E)

• RC-N Training

• ISAF Economic Footprint

• Sharing LL amongst Nations

• ISAF C2

Support to SCR

• LL from CA (Sedwill Report)

E – Bi-SC Endorsed

E* – IS/IMS Endorsed

Other Reports

KFOR

• C2 and Manoeuvre Forces (E)

• Multinational Logistics (E)

• INFO OPS in the Balkans (E)

• ISR Architecture

NRF

• Time Sensitive Targeting (E)

• C2 (SFJE 08) (E)

• EBAO at SFJR 08

• JFC Naples Assessment Process (E)

• DJSE Implementation (SFJE 09 & LJL 09) (E)

• Information Flow and C2 in a JHQ as observed in Ex SFJE10 (E)

NATO Wide

• Managing Partnership (E*)

• Force Generation (E)

• Interoperability of Dismounted Soldier Systems (E)

• NATO’s Military Contribution to a Comprehensive Approach to Ops (E)

• Multinational Medical Support in NATO (E)

• Outreach within ACO (E*)

• Interoperability Shortfalls in Current NATO Led Operations (E)

• Outsourcing Logistics (E)

• Medical Civil Military Interaction (E)

E – Bi-SC Endorsed

E* – IS/IMS Endorsed

Recent & Current

Reports/Projects ISAF

• Crisis Response Operations Urgent Requirement (CUR) process

• Fratricide Prevention (BALL report follow-up)

• POMLT Training

NRF

• Information Exchange and Mechanisms in a JHQ as observed in Ex SFJO 10

NATO Wide

• CMX

• NATO Intelligence Structures (E)

• Information Sharing in Counter-Piracy

• Defence metrics

SHAPE

• ACO Assessment

OUP

• Strategic Analysis Team (SHAPE)

• NATO HQ Lessons Identified

• JFC Naples LIs

NATO LL Portals

NATO LL Databases

Joint Analysis Handbook

• Third Edition

released in October

2007

• Electronic version

(Adobe Acrobat -

pdf) available in the

JALLC website

Lessons Learned Handbook

• First Edition released

20 October 2010 in

electronic version

(Adobe Acrobat - pdf)

• Second edition will

incorporate feedback

and include more

illustrations and

diagrams (2Q 2011)

• Feedback to:

– llh@jallc.nato.int

Social Network Analysis in Exercise

SFJO10 (Dec 2010)

Background

• JALLC analysis in support of SFJO10

• Analysis of the JHQ – MAIN and

Forward Element (FE)

• MAIN

– Joint Effects Management Branch (JEMB)

– Joint Synchronization and Execution

Branch (JSEB)

• FE

– Theatre Engagement Centre (TEC)

– Joint Coordination Centre (JCC)

E-Mails

• Analysis based on Exchange Server log files of e-mails received by staff – 128 mailboxes

– 38407 individual e-mails

– 24754 exercise related

• Current analysis is limited because only JEMB, JSEB, TEC and JCC staff mailboxes

• Microsoft Research SNA tool NodeXL used to support the analysis – Seamless interface with MS Excel

– Free!

Social Network

Social Network (exc. Self loops)

JCC

JCC OPS COORD

Social Network

SN – Other Means

JHQ E-mails in Exercise

SFJO10 (Dec 2010)

E-mail Analysis

5.9%

42.7%

57.6%

69.3%

78.9%

88.7%94.3%

95.0%

96.6%98.6% 99.5% 99.8% 99.9%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

Cu

mu

lati

ve F

req

ue

ncy

Fre

qu

en

cy

Received E-mails per day

Mean: 42.9

Distribution

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 150 165 180 195 210 225 240

Cu

mu

lati

ve F

req

ue

ncy

Number of Emails received per Day

Email Distribution Poisson Weibull Gamma Erlang Exponential

Correlation

0

50

100

150

200

250

Re

ceiv

ed

E-m

ails

Staff Member

08 Dec 2010 09 Dec 2010 10 Dec 2010 11 Dec 2010 12 Dec 2010 13 Dec 2010 14 Dec 2010

Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient

Date

Date

08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec

08 Dec 1

09 Dec 0.890 1

10 Dec 0.832 0.921 1

11 Dec 0.838 0.900 0.930 1

12 Dec 0.857 0.907 0.900 0.948 1

13 Dec 0.842 0.864 0.901 0.906 0.925 1

14 Dec 0.828 0.791 0.775 0.773 0.795 0.860 1

E-mails vs Connectivity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Tota

l exe

rcis

e e

-mai

ls r

ece

ive

d

Number of connected staff (vertex degree)

JEMB JSEB TEC JCC Linear Trend

m=6.09R2 = 0.8362

Minimize E-mail

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

All SFJO10 Only SFJO10External only

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f all

e-m

ails

re

ceiv

ed

E-mail Traffic

JEMB JSEB TEC JCC Overall

Contact: John Redmayne PORA

Internet: www.jallc.nato.int

NS WAN: workspace.jallc.nato.int