japanese oda by aid type (2007 constant prices) gross loans net loans grants (billion $) debt...
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Japanese ODA by Aid type(2007 constant prices)
Gross loans
Net loans
Grants
(billion $)
Debt forgiveness
Expected collaboration between private and public sector in Japan
• Japanese ODA wants yen-loan projects in bigger scale
• To share costs and risks of Africa business
• Infrastructure building based on demand of the private sector
• Project design on custom-made
• PPP based upon the above principles
People
Government Government
CSR
PPP
G-G
donor countryrecipient
tax, loyalty
PPP
Open direct channels to the peopleto strengthen our relations with Africa
business investor
IDE-JETRO projectsscientific design of effective CSR program
• With Toyota South Africa
anti-HIV/AIDS program in its factory
• With Sumitomo Corporation
effective utilization of Olyset-Net in Madagascar
• With Hernic Ferrochrome Ltd.
community-development program at the company’s surroundings
Development stages • Agricultural productivity increase will provide
abundant and cheap food
• Cheap food will keep labor cost low
• Low labor cost will attract investment in labor-intensive industries
• Expansion of labor-intensive industries will achieve full-employment
• Full-employment will result in wage increase
• Chemical fertilizer industry stands for this history
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1885 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000Rice yield per ha
Real economic growth rate
High economic growth period in Japan was coincident with the rapid improvement in rice yield
(kg/ha)
Industrial expenditures in general account of Japanese government (1955-1975)
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery
Industry, Mining
Transportation, telecommunication
Fertilizer input volumecorrelation with land productivity: 0.99 in Asia 0.94 in Latin America 0.86 in Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
South Asia
Southeast Asia
(kg/ha)
Price indices of chemical fertilizersAlmost prohibitive level in Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin AmericaDeveloping Asia
‘Diminishing return’ has brought impoverishmentCereal production per farmer
(kg per farmer)
China
IndiaSub-Saharan Africa
Southeast Asia
1985 1990 1995 2000Sub-Saharan Africa 0.58 0.88 0.76 0.52 Zambia 0.44 0.79 - 0.39developing Asia 0.38 0.40 0.46 0.41 China - 0.08 0.33 0.25
1985 1990 1995 2000Sub-Saharan Africa 2.87 3.71 2.78 2.54 Zambia 0.98 3.02 - 1.54developing Asia 1.87 1.78 1.98 1.67 China - 1.14 1.70 1.29
Low productivity brings comparatively high food price in Africa
Index of cereal price
Index of meat price
1980 1985 1990 1995Sub-Saharan Africa 4,322 3,311 5,186 6,239 South Africa 6,120 4,466 7,708 10,093 Zambia 3,245 2,492 1,767 3,429Asia 1,048 896 1,386 2,009 China 548 286 319 504 Indonesia 838 1,011 715 1,458 Korea 2,837 3,476 9,353 16,435
High food price results in high wage:No comparative advantage in labor
Average wage (1990 constant dollars)
Agricultural development in Africa will become more than African Development matter
• Global grain market will be much tighter
• ‘Land Rush’ from the Middle East and East Asia
• Grain and food business will attract much more interest
• Exemplified by Zambeef
Disconnect between urban and ruralurbanization has brought food import
Cereal dependencyto import
Urbanization rate
Cereal dependencyincluding food aid
If food sufficiency rate exceeds 100% in Zambia,Disadvantage of land-locked will turn to be big advantage
Attract Japanese companies
• Build firm agriculture to establish stable society free from poverty, which make Zambia an advantageous country in the continent
• Become a gateway to the regional market, which make disadvantage as a land-locked to geographical advantage
• Japanese companies are now under push-out pressure because of shrinking domestic market
cement, building materials, education business, food manufacturing, etc.
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