jobs in a clean energy economy: science, engineering, and policy

University ofCalifornia,Berkeley

Renewableand AppropriateEnergy Laboratory

Jobs in a Clean Energy Economy: Science

Berkeley gy yUC Berkeley

Jobs in a Clean Energy Economy: Science, Engineering, and Policy Perspectives

Daniel M. Kammen

E d R G & G ld S h l f P bli P liEnergy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public PolicyDirector, Renewable and Appropriate Energy LaboratoryDirector, Transportation Sustainability Research Center

U i i f C lif i B k lUniversity of California, Berkeley

http://rael.berkeley.edu

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

p: . y.February 4, 2010, Madison, WI

Major U.S. Public Research and Development Programs

red=defense, black=space, orange=health, blue=energy

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Nemet, 2007; Nemet and Kamen 2007; Kammen and Nemet, 2005

United States’ Public and Private Sector Energy Research and Development SpendingResearch and Development Spending

Kammen and Nemet (2008) Unpublished

• We are at a critical moment - momentum exists for change of direction• Carbon cost/benefit assessments needed for federal programs

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

• Energy efficiency and transmission/storage goals and roadmaps needed• Tremendous economic benefits possible in a low-carbon economy

Patents and R&D Funding Correlated

Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology, Fall, 84 – 88.

And Nemet, Ph.D. dissertation, 2007

The battle of tipping points

• The clean jobs economy is real, and provides a route to build a new industrial baseto build a new industrial base

Developing innovative technical and social ‘tipping • Developing innovative technical and social ‘tipping points’ is vital

• Energy ‘Systems science’ and implementation requires an integration of basic research and a state requires an integration of basic research and a state enabling environment and workforce

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

UNIVERSITY O F CALIFORN IABERKELE Y

REPORT OF THERENEWAB LE AND APPROPRIATE ENERGYLABORA TORY

Putting Renewa bles to Work:How Many J obs C an theClean Energy IndustryClean Energy IndustryGenerate?

by

D i l M KDaniel M. KammenKamal KapadiaMatthias Fripp

of theEnergy and Resources Group &the Goldman School of Pu blic Policy

APRIL 13, 2004

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Green job creation: Obama 25% by 2025 PlanFederal + state RPS yields +348,000 jobs in 2025

140 400

h)

plus Federal RPS

, j

100

120

ted

n y

ears

)

300

350

ated

(TW

h

Other 18

80

job

s cr

eat

s of

per

son

200

250

rgy

gen

era

Illinois

Nevadastates with an RPS

40

60

Gre

en

thou

san

ds

150

wab

le e

ne

Pennsylvania

New YorkTexas

20

(t

50

100

Ren

ew

California

Pennsylvania

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

-1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

-

Better, Cheaper Lighting - Convention Center

Old Incandescent Lights

New T-5 Lights

The Many Values of Efficiency:

g

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

$400,000 saved per year with new lights

Energy Efficiency Strategies

• All new residential construction in California

Residential New Construction• All new residential construction in California

will be zero net energy by 2020.

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Technological Innovation: solar

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Vestas is the largest Wind Turbine manufacturer in the world manufacturer in the world

Employing approx. 20,500 people24 countries worldwide

Just opened the world’s biggest R&D center

Install a new wind turbine every 5 hours

80 x V80-2.0 MW, HornReef, Denmark

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Actual PV Growth vs. Historic Forecasts

Actual k t market

development

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

China Racing Ahead of U S in the Drive to Go SolarChina Racing Ahead of U.S. in the Drive to Go SolarBy KEITH BRADSHERPublished: August 24, 2009

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Information Technology Integrated with S l T h l P f M it iSolar Technology: Performance Monitoring

Enphase ApplicationServers

00111001

Internet00111001

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Micro-inverters versus traditional designs:gA household and building electronics strategy

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Roll on PV cells.

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.eduSolar photovoltaic installations of thin film cells, in Germany

Market Innovation: Financial tools

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

$$ Upfront

• Creates financing district & • Identifies work & chooses contractor

$$ Repaid on tax bill

• Creates financing district & approval process

• Provides upfront capital• Attaches repayment

• Identifies work & chooses contractor• Repays financing as a line item on the

property tax bill• Repayment obligation transfers with

hi

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

obligation to the building ownership• Builds clean energy equity

Property Assessed Clean Energy Clean Energy

(PACE): State ActionsState Actions

PACE financing has PACE financing has now been adopted by the White House by the White House

for support and i th US appears in the US

House Climate Bill

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

(Waxman-Markey)

PACE details: Program CoordinationBexar CountyTax Collector

C I T Y H A L L Program ApplicationsSpecial Assessments

Property Owner

C I T Y H A L L

Program Administration

Program Applications

Program Information

Financing Mechanism

FinancingProceeds

Owner

Builder /Installer

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.eduCPS

Energy22

PACE details: Program Coordination

Awareness

PACE ImplementationCurrent Situation

Awareness / Education

EnrollmentAudit / E l iE 

ProgramFinancing

Audit / Evaluation

Installation

Financing

Evaluation

onio PAC

E

Rebates / Tax CreditsEnrollmen

t Installation

Rebates / Tax CreditsMeasurement & VerificationSa

n An

toHomeowner

A / M t

tHomeowner

• Increased market participation• One‐stop coordination of projects from

• Lack of awareness & participation• Citizen responsible for project

Awareness / Education

Measurement & Verification

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

One stop coordination of projects from enrollment through implementation

• Measured impact & results

Citizen responsible for project coordination

• Unknown impact & results 23

Technological & market Innovation: biofuelsbiofuels

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Plug-in Hybrids: Can they move rapidly to scale?

Carbon Intensity of Fuels

110 Today's Biofuels Future Low-Carbon Fuels

90

100

)

Baseline

60

70

80

y (C

O 2e/

MJ)

2020 Target

40

50

60

on In

tens

ity

IndirectDirect

20

30

Car

bo

0

10

Gasoline -CaRFG + 10%

MidwestCorn Ethanol

SugarcaneEthanol

CaliforniaEthanol (Dry

CellulosicEthanol

CellulosicEthanol

Electricity(Ca

Hydrogen(SB1505)

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

CaRFG + 10%Ethanol

Corn Ethanol(Ave)

Ethanol(Brazil)

Ethanol (Drymill, Wet

DGS)

Ethanol(FarmedPoplar)

Ethanol(Waste)

(CaMarginal)

(SB1505)

Fuel Type 26

Energy Biosciences InstituteUniversity of California, Berkeley

Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

A $500 million biofuel development grant from BP

Technology AssessmentsProject coordinator: Sunil PaulScientific advisor: Dan Kammen

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.eduhttp://www.gigatonthrowdown.org/

Information innovation: Policy and environmental accountingenvironmental accounting

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Spring Summer Fall Winter

Dispatch Mix in 2024 @ $0/ton CO2The SWITCH West Energy System

Model:Th S it h d l i f d d l f th WECC i th t

s

The Switch model is a geo-referenced model of the WECC region that:

- Matches conventional, nuclear, and renewable energy supply to demand.- Utilizes energy efficiency and demand-side management (to be completed)

Objective: Minimize Total System Cost, Subject to GHG C i

completed)- Does so with the construction of transmission and distribution infrastructure- Has planned expansions to Texas (ERCOT), the US East, and China (major task)

Constraints

ew

lant

s Dispatch Mitch in 2024 @ $50/ton CO2

Ne

Plg

Plan

ts

Spring Summer Fall Winter

Exis

ting

&

s

T &

DSu

nk

160000

Electricity Supply in Western North American Forecast versus carbon price in 2024

140000

New Wind

100000

120000

W)

New WindNew Offshore WindNew Distributed PVNew CSP TroughNew BiomassHydro + Pumped Storage

80000

erat

ion

(MW New Nuclear

Existing NuclearNew GeothermalExisting GeothermalNew Combustion TurbineNew CCGT

40000

60000

Gen

e New CCGTExisting Gas CogenExisting GasNew CoalExisting Coal CogenExisting Coal

0

20000

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Carbon Cost ($2007/tCO2)

The Blueprint reduces U.S. electricity use and diversifies the energy mixuse and diversifies the energy mix

Reference Case Blueprint PoliciesReference Case

5,000

6,000

R blCHP

Blueprint Policies

5,000

6,000

3,000

4,000

kilo

wat

t-hou

rs

N t l G

Nuclear

RenewablesHydro

3,000

4,000

kilo

wat

t-hou

rs

Nuclear CHP

Efficiency Savings

Hydro

Renewables

1,000

2,000

Billi

on k

Coal

Natural Gas

1,000

2,000

Billi

on k

Coal

Natural Gas

02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

02005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu32

Predicted transmission $50t/CO2 in 2024

Old Transmission LinesNew Transmission Lines

Greenhouse gas and sustainability Greenhouse gas and sustainability calculators:

http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu&&

http://www.coolcalifornia.org

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu