july 2012 election monitor no. 1
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August 9, 2012
Ukraine Elections to Verkhovna Rada 2012
Election Monitor
The October 28, 2012 parliamentary election race officially began on Monday, July 30. Currently, participating political
parties are finalizing their party lists and nominating and registering candidates for single-mandate election districts. The
results of this process, including the exact list of candidates and participating parties will be available by the second half of
August.
Opinion polling points six parties playing an active role in the elections: Party of Regions, United Opposition (“Batkivshchyna”
and “Front of Change”), Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms (UDAR), Communist Party of Ukraine, “Ukraine –
Forward!”, and “Freedom”. The first four will almost surely have a presence in the next Parliament, and the other two also
have good chances. All of these parties will participate in both the party list and the single-mandate elections, except
“Freedom” which will coordinate its single-mandate list with the United Opposition. Additionally, incumbent Parliament
Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s “National Party” will run exclusively in the single-mandate elections, but will not participate in
the party list election. Former President Yushchenko’s “Our Ukraine” teamed with other rightist parties “Ukrainian National
Party” and “Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists” and will participate in both parts of the election process. Opinion polling
suggests they are highly unlikely to pass the 5% threshold for party lists and their candidates in single mandate districts are
at a disadvantage due to their late start.
Single-mandate elections remain traditionally unpredictable, although we can be sure that the incumbent Party of Regions
will have an advantage in eastern and southern regions where their candidates are well finances and face little competition
from opposition candidates. As is common in Ukraine, the deciding factor in many single mandate districts will be the
candidate’s ability to finance their political campaigns, as well as other large projects in the districts, rather than party
affiliation.
Regarding Kyiv municipal elections, the two main contenders are obvious. The runoff will be between Vitaliy Klychko, leader
of the opposition UDAR party and Oleksadnr Popov, current Chairman of the Kyiv City State Administration. The Party of
Regions will attempt to delay the elections as much as possible in order to secure a victory for Popov.
PBN H+K Strategies will offer another update on the 2012 parliamentary elections at the end of August, 2012.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PARTY LIST RACE
19,4
19,3
12,4 4,7
1,9 3,4 4,1
34,8
June 2012 Party of Regions
United Opposition
UDAR
Communist Party
Freedom
Ukraine - Forward!
Other
Undecided
17,9
20,5
9,0
3,8 2,6 1,3 3,8
41,0
May 2012 Party of Regions
United Opposition
UDAR
Communist Party
Freedom
Ukraine - Forward!
Other
Undecided
Party of Regions and United Opposition (“Batkivshchyna” + “Front of Change”) are virtually even in voter support; however,
they have lost much popularity since the 2007 election.
Party of Regions is not attracting many additional voters, despite the assimilation of Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Tihipko’s
party “Strong Ukraine”. In fact, as some recent polls show, they continue to lose public trust.
Yulia Tymoshenko’s “Batkivshchyna”, on the other hand, gained considerable support after merging with “Front of Change”
headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
After the recent changes in the election system (particularly the elimination of “Against All” vote) and the abovementioned
mergers, the electorate is in a flux. The number of people not planning to attend the elections has more than doubled, and
the number of undecided voters has increased dramatically as well. Thus, the election among party lists appears wide open
for now.
Source: polls by GfK Ukraine
% Party of Regions United
Opposition UDAR
Communist
Party Freedom
Ukraine -
Forward! Other Undecided
May, 2012 17.9 20.5 9.0 3.8 2.6 1.3 3.8 41.0
June, 2012 19.4 19.3 12.4 4.7 1.9 3.4 4.1 34.8
POPULARITY POLLS FROM OTHER SOURCES
As seen, the data from Razumkov Centre
slightly inflates the results in favor of the
two leading parties, while the other studies
emphasize the open nature of the race.
The more recent study from Rating Group
demonstrates the gain in support by the
United Opposition and the Communist
Party.
% Party of
Regions United
Opposition UDAR
Communist
Party Freedom
Ukraine -
Forward! Other Undecided
Razumkov Centre
(25 June 2012) 25.1 23.7 9.8 7.2 3.5 3.3 7.9 19.5
KIIS (26 June
2012) 19.1 17.3 9.5 6.9 3.7 3.9 5.1 34.2
GfK (June 2012) 19.4 19.3 12.4 4.7 1.9 3.4 4.1 34.8
Rating Group (31
July 2012) 18.6 23.6 10.3 9.3 4.0 4.1 2.3 23.3
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
Graphic Comparison
Razumkov Centre(25 June 2012)
KIIS (26 June2012)
GfK (June 2012)
Rating Group (31July 2012)
IF ELECTIONS TOOK PLACE IN JULY…
There are only 4 parties currently who would easily pass the 5% threshold: Party of Regions, United Opposition
(“Batkivshchyna” + “Front of Change”), UDAR and the Communist Party of Ukraine.
The Communist Party is slightly below the cutoff line, but will no doubt pass the threshold as it is benefitting from voters
dissatisfied with the Party of Regions in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.
Oleh Tyahnybok’s “Freedom” and Natalia Korolevska’s “Ukraine-Forward!” are considerably below the threshold, but both
still have a chance to pass 5%. The latter in particular has been gaining attention and support steadily in the recent
months, more so after the famous Ukrainian football player, Andriy Shevchenko announced his membership in the party.
78
77
50
20
Seats filled under the Proportional System
Party of Regions
United Opposition
UDAR
Communist Party
Party of Regions United
Opposition UDAR
Communist
Party Freedom
Ukraine -
Forward! Other Total
Seats 78 77 50 20 below threshold below threshold below threshold 225
Note: assume “undecided” voters don’t participate or spread equally
POTENTIAL VOTER GAIN
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
Potential Gain
Current Support
Party of Regions has very little potential to gain voters on
the proportional system, and will likely emphasize securing
as many single-mandate districts as possible in order to
ensure a majority in the Parliament.
Another key task for the Party of Regions will be to
encourage their electoral base to turn out. Despite low
potential to gain active voters, they might still garner
support from over 30% of potential voters currently refusing
to participate in the elections.
Both United Opposition and UDAR have a large amount of
sympathizers, enough to secure a significant number of
additional seats.
Both “Freedom” and “Ukraine-Forward!” still have a chance to break the 5% threshold given a successful campaign.
With over 35% of the voters undecided, much will depend on the ability of the parties to swing this electorate in their favor.
UDAR will need to target younger voters (under 30 years old.), since they are the least politically active, but show the most
support for Klychko’s party advertised as modern, progressive, and European.
Party of Regions United Opposition UDAR Communist Party Freedom Ukraine - Forward!
Support (%) 19.4 19.3 12.4 4.7 1.9 3.4
Sympathy (%) 21.8 28.2 23.1 9.0 6.4 7.7
Relative Gain
(times) 1.12 1.46 1.86 1.91 3.37 2.26
Relative Gain (%) 12.4 46.1 86.3 91.5 236.8 126.5
Currently, the results of single-mandate elections are impossible to predict with certainty, since there is usually little to no
correlation between the voters’ party preferences and regional representative voting tendencies in Ukraine.
While some candidates (usually pro-Party of Regions incumbents) have already started campaigning in their districts, the
single-mandate race remains open as official registration of candidates in the Central Election Commission has only just
begun, and the parties continue to finalize candidate lists.
Unless the opposition begins to campaign aggressively in the nearest future, single-mandate races will favor pro-government
candidates or independents with their support, for the following reasons:
– Many of the districts were drawn in favor of pro-government candidates or with the intention of disrupting opposition
candidates’ campaigns;
– Some Party of Regions candidates are masquerading as pro-opposition independents in order to create fake
competition against intentionally weak PoR candidates and discredit the actual opposition candidates;
– Single-mandate races usually favor the better-financed, better-organized candidates, which are often pro-government
candidates.
– Some opposition candidates are willing to cross over to the Party of Regions side after winning their seats as
opposition members, particularly business leaders.
The possibility of fraud on certain election sites still exists. It will be difficult for the opposition to install enough observers in
all the 225 districts and to operate effectively after being accustomed to a proportional election system for the past 10 years.
According to some estimates, pro-government candidates have the power to gain as much as 10% more votes through fraud
during the counting process.
Judging by the released candidate lists for single-mandate districts, the Party of Regions and the PoR-sympathizing
independents currently hold considerable advantage over the rather weak candidates from opposition. The PBN Company
will release more specific analysis once the lists are finalized and the candidates officially register with the CEC.
SINGLE-MANDATE ELECTIONS
Potential Candidates
Vitaliy Klychko Oleksandr
Popov
Oleksandra
Kuzhel' Oleh Lyashko Vasyl' Horbal' Serhiy Kurykin Against All Undecided
Popularity (%) 43.1 34.4 6.9 1.6 1.2 0.0 3.0 9.8
KYIV MAYOR ELECTION
43,1
34,4
6,9 1,6
1,2
3,0
9,8
Potential Kyiv Mayor Popularity
Vitaliy Klychko
Oleksandr Popov
Oleksandra Kuzhel'
Oleh Lyashko
Vasyl' Horbal'
Against All
Undecided
The race is likely to come down to Popov (Party of
Regions) vs. Klychko (UDAR, opposition). Klychko
currently enjoys more popularity, but with time Popov
has better resources and is better-positioned to gain
additional support.
While the opposition is pushing for the Kyiv Mayor
election to be held simultaneously with the parliamentary
elections in October, 2012, the Party of Regions is
interested in delaying the date in order to boost their
candidate’s popularity. Verkhovna Rada sets the date for
municipal elections, therefore the Party of Regions has
this advantage as long as they maintain their majority.
Vitaliy Klychko has previously announced his intent to
run for the position, and that he would give up his seat in
the Verkhovna Rada for it.
Source: poll by “Ukrainian Democratic Circle”, July 2012
APPENDIX 1: MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES
“Party of Regions”: The party
that currently holds 175 seats and
majority in Verkhovna Rada. It is
also the party of the current
President, Viktor Yanukovych.
Generally favors a Russian-
leaning agenda.
“Batkivshchyna”: Formerly known
as the Yuliya Tymoshenko bloc, this
is the primary opposition party in
Ukraine. After merging with the
“Front for Change” and several
other small opposition parties, it is
often referred to as the United
Opposition. Generally has a pro-
European stance.
Communist Party of Ukraine:
Currently holds 27 seats in the
parliament. It is a small but
significant pro-government party
in Ukraine. Pursues a socialist
agenda and generally sides with
the Party of Regions.
UDAR (Ukrainian Democratic
Alliance for Reform): Vitaliy
Klychko’s party. This is the only
significant opposition party not
cooperating with “Batkivshchyna” in
the upcoming elections. UDAR has
been gaining much popular support
in the recent months. Pursues a pro-
European and an anti-corruption
agenda.
“Ukraine-Forward!”:
Natalia Korolevska’s party,
formerly known as the Social
Democratic Party of Ukraine,
formerly part of Bloc of Yuliya
Tymoshenko. Positions itself as
an opposition party with a pro-
development agenda, but might
side with the PoR after elections.
All-Ukrainian Union “Freedom”:
Oleh Tyahnybok’s party. Agreed to
cooperate with “Batkivshchyna” in
single-mandate elections. Pursues a
Ukrainian nationalist and a populist
agenda.
APPENDIX 2: KYIV MAYOR ELECTIONS
POTENTIAL CANDIDATES PROFILE
Vitaliy Klychko: Leader of the UDAR
party, former member of the Kyiv City
Council. Ran for mayor’s office before,
unsuccessfully.
Oleksandr Popov: Chairman of the Kyiv
City State Administration, former Minister
for Public Services. Member of Party of
Regions, and their preferred candidate for
Kyiv mayor.
Oleksandra Kuzhel’: Former head of
The State Committee of Ukraine for
Regulatory Policy and Entrepreneurship,
former deputy head of the “Strong
Ukraine” party. Quit the party after its
merge with the Party of Regions.
Oleh Lyashko: Incumbent deputy of the
Verkhovna Rada from “Batkivshchyna”,
was ousted from the party in 2010,
allegedly for “cooperating with the [Party
of Regions] majority”.
Vasyl’ Horbal’: Incumbent deputy of the
Verkhovna Rada from the Party of
Regions; former president of
“Ukrgazbank”, former governor of Lviv
oblast. Ran for mayor’s office in 2008.
Serhiy Kurykin: Former head of the
Green Party, former Minister for Ecology
and Natural Resources.
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