june 2010 proximity talks: what’s next? york university

June 2010

Proximity Talks: What’s Next?

York University

Vision21st Century Zionism

MissionSignificant & Substantive Impact

StrategyBe Israel's Primary Resource for Decision-Support

Grow Israel's Future Strategists 

The Reut Institute

Militarized PL State

Foreign forces using PL

Terrorism and Rocket fire

IL Leaves: Security ThreatMilitary Logic: Stay

Israel’s Challenge: Balancing Clash of Logics

Demographic Burden

Erosion of 2SS

Logic of Implosion

IL Stays: Political ThreatPolitical Logic: Leave

What is the main threat from the Palestinians?

PL Disenchantment with Political Process

Fayyad’s State Building

Economic Measures vs. Israel

‘White’ Intifada

Negotiation by Proxy

Palestinians: Frustration & the Search for Strategy

Obama Administration: Raising Bar Too High?

Arab States: Normalization

Israel: Settlement

Freeze

Palestinians: Greater Security / End Incitement

Negotiations Leading to Permanent Status Agreement within 2 Years

The Middle East peace process has not moved forward. And I think it's fair to say that for all our efforts at early

engagement, it is not where I want it to be…If we had anticipated some of these political problems on both sides earlier, we might not have raised expectations as high    

The Structure of the Political Process

How to reach Permanent Status?

Permanent Status (Definition):

•End of Israeli Responsibility

•A Palestinian State alongside IL

•Historical Issues: agreed resolution

How to end control over the Palestinians?

Permanent Agreement

Palestinian State First (agreed)

PSPB (Return to Roadmap)

First Agreement, then PL State

End of Conflict, Finality of Claims

2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA

Annapolis and Oslo The Road Map

IL Govt. Weakness

Package Agreement: Structural Issues

No ZOPA

PL Division

PSA

Serious Disagreements on Historic Issues + Security

Shaky Center Right Coalition

Constitutional Crisis: Abbas lacks Legitimacy

Increasing Division between Gaza & WB

PSPB Approach: Structural Problems

No ZOPAPalestinian

Split

Hamas may support: Part of Phased Plan; Fatah Not a Partner

Growing Split Between Gaza & WBHow Will the Agreement be Ratified?

PSPB

No Palestinian Ratification means No Israeli Ratification

An Unratified Agreement May Bring About PA Collapse

Vacuum Filled by Other Suggestions

Unilateral Recognition

Obama Parameters

Borders FirstArab Peace Initiative

Status Quo Promotes 1SS

PSA Unobtainable

Agreed PSPB:No Partner

Economic Peace

Unacceptable

How to end control over the Palestinians?

Permanent Agreement

Palestinian State First (agreed)

No Agreement: Upgrading the PA

PSPB (Return to Roadmap)

First Agreement, then PL State

End of Conflict, Finality of Claims

2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA

Systematic Buildup; PL State;

Permanent Agreement

Palestinian State First (de-facto)

Building PL State bypasses Constitutional Crisis

How to Advance the Creation of a State?

Gestures Consolidating the

Status of Moderate Forces Inside the System Without

Strengthening the PA

Strengthen PA

Actions aimed at strengthening PA’s

powers & authorities of within framework

of existing agreements.

Upgrade PASystematically

transferring powers & authorities above those that exist by

virtue of the Interim Agreement

Power to Establish Consulates Abroad,

Issuing Currency

Dayton and Blair’s Actions for

Restoring the Palestinian Police

Remove Checkpoints, Ease

Restrictions, Promote

Investment

Only Israel Can ‘Upgrade’ the PA

To Lead or be Led? That is the Question

With a Plan, Israel Leads

Without a Plan Israel gets Led

If Israel Wants to Lead – it needs a New Political Strategy

If wants to be Led - Not at Expense of ‘Special Relations’