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Keynote Speaker
BiTS Workshop 2013 Archive
THE DRAMATIC RESTRUCTURING OF THE INTEGRATED CIRCUIT INDUSTRY by
Bill McClean President
IC Insights, Inc.
et ready for some really good news as keynote speaker Bill McClean of IC Insights addresses "The Dramatic Restructuring of the Integrated Circuit Industry". In IC Insights’ opinion, the “bottom” of the current
cycle in the worldwide economy and IC industry was reached in 2012 and 2013 will mark the beginning of the next cyclical upturn—one in which the IC industry CAGR will more than triple to 7.4% in the next 5-year period.
ABSTRACT
hroughout 2012, the expectations for global economic growth consistently deteriorated and global GDP expanded by only 2.6%. It should be noted that 2.5% or less worldwide GDP growth is
typically considered a global recession. However, IC Insights’ forecast for 2013 worldwide GDP growth is 3.2%, with increasingly better growth expected for the global economy through 2016. The IC industry is set to emerge from a difficult 5-year period of minimal growth. From 2007-2012, the IC market grew at an average annual rate of 2.0%. In IC Insights’ opinion, the “bottom” of the current cycle in the worldwide economy and IC industry was reached in 2012 and 2013 will mark the beginning of the next cyclical upturn—one in which the IC industry CAGR will more than triple to 7.4% in the next 5-year period. Overall, semiconductor industry cycles are becoming increasingly tied to the health of the worldwide economy. While poor semiconductor industry growth has occurred during periods of strong worldwide economic growth, primarily due to semiconductor industry overcapacity and the resulting IC price declines, it is rare to have strong semiconductor industry growth without at least a “good” worldwide economy to support it. Thus, over the next five years, annual global semiconductor market growth rates are expected to gain significant momentum and closely mirror the performance of worldwide GDP growth.
G
T
COPYRIGHT NOTICE The paper(s) in this publication comprise the Proceedings of the 2013 BiTS Workshop. The content reflects the opinion of the authors and their respective companies. They are reproduced here as they were presented at the 2013 BiTS Workshop. This version of the papers may differ from the version that was distributed in hardcopy & softcopy form at the 2013 BiTS Workshop. The inclusion of the papers in this publication does not constitute an endorsement by BiTS Workshop, LLC or the workshop’s sponsors.
There is NO copyright protection claimed on the presentation content by BiTS Workshop, LLC. (Occasionally a Tutorial and/or TechTalk may be copyrighted by the author). However, each presentation is the work of the authors and their respective companies: as such, it is strongly encouraged that any use reflect proper acknowledgement to the appropriate source. Any questions regarding the use of any materials presented should be directed to the author(s) or their companies.
The BiTS logo and ‘Burn-in & Test Strategies Workshop’ are trademarks of BiTS Workshop, LLC. All rights reserved.
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
1
Keynote Address
THE�DRAMATIC�RESTRUCTURING�OF�THE�INTEGRATED�CIRCUIT�INDUSTRY
Bill McClean, President—IC Insights
Keynote Address
Conference Ready 2/18/2013
2013 BiTS WorkshopMarch 3 - 6, 2013
Presentation�Outline
• Global Economic Trends and “New” IC Cycle Model
• IC Market Trends
• Capital Spending and Capacity Trends
• Summary
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 2
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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Global�Economic�Trends
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2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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Keynote Address
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March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 6
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March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 7
0.44
0.06
0.67
0.96 0.99
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1980Ͳ1989 1990Ͳ1999 2000Ͳ2009 2010Ͳ2012 2013FͲ2016F
Correla
on Coe
ffic
i
ent
Timeperiod
Worldwide GDP and IC Market Growth Correla on Coefficient History and Forecast (1980Ͳ2016)
Source: IC Insights
Japanese Co's Ramp Produc on
S. Korean & Taiwanese Co's Ramp Produc on
Company Consolida on Begins
Consolida on Gains Momentum
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 8
2011 GDP 2011 GDP 2011 2012 GDP 2012 GDP 2012 2013F GDP 2013F GDP 2013F Growth % ($ Trillions) (% of Total) Growth % ($ Trillions) (% of Total) Growth % ($ Trillions) (% of Total)
Developed CountriesU.S. 1.7% 13.92 23.7% 2.2% 14.23 23.6% 2.4% 14.57 23.5%
Eurozone 1.5% 12.17 20.8% -0.8% 12.07 20.1% -0.3% 12.04 19.4%
Japan -0.7%* 4.28 7.3% 1.5% 4.34 7.2% 1.4% 4.41 7.1%
U.K. 0.7% 2.68 4.6% -0.1% 2.68 4.4% 1.3% 2.71 4.4%
Canada 2.4% 1.38 2.4% 2.1% 1.41 2.3% 2.3% 1.44 2.3%
Australia/NZ 2.2% 1.03 1.8% 3.7% 1.07 1.8% 3.0% 1.10 1.8%
Total Developed 1.3% 35.46 60.5% 1.0% 35.80 59.5% 1.3% 36.26 58.4%
Emerging Markets 6.2% 23.19 39.5% 5.2% 24.40 40.5% 5.9% 25.84 41.6%
Worldwide Total 3.2% 58.65 100.0% 2.6% 60.19 100.0% 3.2% 62.10 100.0%
China** 9.2% 4.71 8.0% 7.8% 5.08 8.4% 8.1% 5.49 8.8%
India** 7.1% 1.52 2.6% 5.6% 1.61 2.7% 6.2% 1.70 2.7%*Forecast was 1.5% before the earthquake
Source: World Bank, IMF, IC Insights **Included in Emerging Market figures
Worldwide GDP Breakdown (2011-2013F)
Country/Region
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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Keynote Address
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 9
65
280
18.1
40
77
310
18.5
46
82
340
19.4
51
10
100
1,000
PC* Cellphone Auto Digital TV
Millions
of U
nits
System
China Market's Impressive Number One Rankings
2010 Market 2011 Market 2012 Market
Source: IC Insights *Not including tablet PCs
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 10
$42 $48 $54 $56 $55
$75 $79
$81
$148
$2.5 $3.5 $4.6 $4.9 $4.2 $5.9 $8.2 $9.1 $19.4
0
30
60
90
120
150
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 17F
Billion
s of D
ollars
Year
China IC Market vs. IC Produc on Trends
China IC Market ($B) China IC Produc on ($B)
Source: IC Insights
IC Produc on Share of China IC Market: 2005: 6.1% 2012: 11.2% 2017F: 13.1%
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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Keynote Address
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 11
3.6%
3.0%
3.9%
2.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
93Ͳ97
98Ͳ02
03Ͳ07
08Ͳ12
Percen
t
5ͲYear Timeperiod
5ͲYear Average Annual Worldwide GDP Growth Rates
Source: IC Insights
Global Recession Threshold (2.5%)
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 12
2013 Worldwide GDP Growth
2013 Worldwide IC Market Growth
2.5 - 2.8%* <3%
2.9 - 3.3% 3 - 7%
3.4 - 3.7% 8 - 12%
�3.8% >12%
*�2.5% = Global RecessionSource: IC Insights
2013 Worldwide GDP vs. IC Market Growth Scenarios
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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Keynote Address
IC�Market�Trends
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 13
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 14
14.0%
19.8%
16.7%
14.1% 12.7%
17.1%
25.0%
20.8% 19.1%
10.6%
8.1% 6.9%
0.6% 0.2%
5.1% 6.6%
1.9%
12.1% 12.7%
8.0%
0.7%
4.9% 3.3%
2.1%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
84/89
85/90
86/91
87/92
88/93
89/94
90/95
91/96
92/97
93/98
94/99
95/00
96/01
97/02
98/03
99/04
00/05
01/06
02/07
03/08
04/09
05/10
06/11
07/12
Percen
t
Timeperiod
5Ͳyear Rolling IC Market ($) CAGR Trends
Source: IC Insights
10.1% AVG.
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 15
7.2%
13.4%
10.5%
7.2% 6.8%
7.1% 8.0% 7.7%
12.0%
9.2%
10.9%
12.9%
7.4%
6.2%
9.0% 9.1%
6.1%
14.9% 14.0%
11.3%
6.3%
9.6%
6.4%
4.3%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
84/89
85/90
86/91
87/92
88/93
89/94
90/95
91/96
92/97
93/98
94/99
95/00
96/01
97/02
98/03
99/04
00/05
01/06
02/07
03/08
04/09
05/10
06/11
07/12
Percen
t
Timeperiod
5Ͳyear Rolling IC Unit CAGR Trends
Source: IC Insights
9.1% AVG.
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 16
10
14
18
22
26
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
58
1Q00
3Q
00
1Q01
3Q
01
1Q02
3Q
02
1Q03
3Q
03
1Q04
3Q
04
1Q05
3Q
05
1Q06
3Q
06
1Q07
3Q
07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q
09
3Q09
1Q
10
3Q10
1Q
11
3Q11
1Q
12
3Q12
Billion
s of U
nits
Quarter
2000Ͳ2012 Quarterly IC Unit Volume Shipment Trend
Source: WSTS, IC Insights
9.5% Annual Trend Line (99Ͳ04)
3Q00 24% Above Trend
14% Annual Trend Line (05Ͳ07)
3Q08 15% Above Trend
2007 2008 2009 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2010
6.0% Trend Line
3Q10 13% Above Trend
2011
2012
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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Capital�Spending�and�Capacity�Trends
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 17
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 18
61.3
38.7
27.5 31.3
47.7 48.1
57.5 61.0
43.4
26.1
53.8
65.6 58.8 59.8
85%
Ͳ37% Ͳ29%
14%
52%
1%
19%
6%
Ͳ29%
Ͳ40%
106%
22%
Ͳ10%
2%
Ͳ50%
Ͳ25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F
Annu
al Cha
nge
Billion
s of D
ollars
Year
Worldwide Semiconductor Capital Spending Trends (2000Ͳ2013)
Capital Spending Percent Change
Source: IC Insights
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 19
31%
26%
22%
21%
28%
26%
18%
18%
21%
20%
22% 22%
17%
11%
17%
20%
19% 18% 8%
Ͳ11%
Ͳ25%
14%
85%
Ͳ37% Ͳ29%
14%
52%
1%
19%
6%
Ͳ29% Ͳ40%
106%
22%
Ͳ10%
2%
Ͳ50%
Ͳ30%
Ͳ10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
130%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F
Capital Spe
nding Ch
ange
Capital Spe
nding %
of S
emi Sales
Year
Semiconductor Capital Spending as a Percent of Semiconductor Sales
Capital Spending % of Semi Sales Capital Spending Change
Source: IC Insights
= Capital Spending as a % of Sales Trendline
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 20
34.8%
18.6%
10.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Top 5 Spenders* Industry Average NonͲTop 5 Spenders
Capital Spe
nding as
a %
of S
ales
2012 Capital Spending as a Percent of Sales Comparison
Source: IC Insights *Samsung, Intel, TSMC, SK Hynix, and GlobalFoundries
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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Keynote Address
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 21
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 22
89% 84%
80% 67%
2013F Capital Spending Leaders' Shares of Total WW Semiconductor Industry Spending ($59.8)
Top 5 Leaders
Top 10 Leaders
Top 15 Leaders
Top 25 Leaders
Source: IC Insights
2005 Share Top 5 = 40% Top 10 = 55% Top 15 = 67% Top 25 = 82%
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 23
3.5
7.3 7.0 5.0
3.8
0.0
13.0
7.0
Ͳ1.5
2.7
7.7 9.0
16.2 18.8
13.9
Ͳ8.1
8.9
12.0
8.5 7.3
16% 19%
16%
10%
7%
0%
21%
9%
Ͳ2%
3%
9% 10%
16% 16%
10%
Ͳ5%
6%
8%
5% 4%
Ͳ10%
Ͳ5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Ͳ10
Ͳ5
0
5
10
15
20
25
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13F
Year/Year Increase
Millions
of W
afers
Year
Worldwide IC Wafer Capacity Changes (200mm Equivalents)
Wafer Capacity Change (M) % Increase over PreviousͲYear
Source: SIA, IC Insights
93Ͳ08 10.6% CAGR
08Ͳ13 3.6% CAGR
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 24
1.7%
0.9%
Ͳ0.2%
Ͳ1.1%
Ͳ2.0%
Ͳ1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
1994Ͳ1999 1999Ͳ2005 2005Ͳ2011 2011Ͳ2017F
IC Units
Shipp
ed per
Wafer
CAG
R
Quarter
IC Units Shipped per Wafer CAGR Trends*
Source: SIA, IC Insights *200mm equivalents
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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Summary
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 28
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 30
$1.42 $1.45
$1.29
$1.37
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
Dollars
Quarter
1992Ͳ2012 Quarterly IC ASP Trends
3Q01Ͳ1Q05 Trend
1Q92Ͳ4Q95 Trend
2Q98Ͳ2Q01 Trend
Source: WSTS, IC Insights
1Q96Ͳ1Q98 Trend
2Q05Ͳ1Q09 Trend 2Q09Ͳ4Q12
Trend
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address 31
YearIC Unit Shipments
(B)IC Average Selling
Price (ASP) IC Market (B)
1997 60.1 $2.12 $127.7
2012 192.6 $1.35 $259.4
1997Ͳ2012 CAGR 8.1% Ͳ3.0% 4.8%
2012 192.6 $1.35 $259.4
2022F 346.0 $1.62 $560.0
2012Ͳ2022F CAGR 6.0% 1.8% 8.0%2008Ͳ2012 IC ASP Ͳ0.5% CAGR
Source: IC Insights
IC Market to Show Better Growth
March�4,�2013 BiTS�Workshop�Keynote�Address
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32
2013 BiTS Workshop ~ March 3 - 6, 2013
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Keynote Address
March 4, 2013 BiTS Workshop Keynote Address
Thank�you�for�your�attention!
Additional informationwww.icinsights.com
+1-480-348-1133
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