lean development planning using options thinking

Lean Planning: Resilient Plans for Complex Environments

Matt Barcomb, odbox

with Matt Barcomb @mattbarcomb matt@odbox.co

Lean Planning: Resilient Plans for Complex Environments

(most comfortable) 1. Flow-based roadmaps 2. Options thinking 3. Planning for development

(least comfortable)

“Focus on everything, and you have not actually focused on anything.”

- Eli Goldratt

“Large queues make it hard to create urgency”

- Don Reinertsen

Flow-based

Flow-based Systems

Visualize work Pull work

Make explicit policies Limit work in progress

Measure with intent

Team A

Team B

Starter road map

Team A

Team B

Readiness

Infra.

Visualize work

Team A

Team B

Readiness

Infra.

Current Goal

Up Next

Coming Soon

On Horizon

Pull work

Team A

Team B

Readiness

Infra.

Current Goal

Up Next

Coming Soon

On Horizon

In Use

Pull work

Team A

Team B

Readiness

Infra.

Current Goal

Up Next

Coming Soon

On Horizon

In UseHBD

Pull work

Team A

Team B

Readiness

Infra.

Current Goal

Up Next

Coming Soon

On Horizon

In UseHBD

Make explicit policies

Team A

Team B

Readiness

Infra.

Current Goal

Up Next

Coming Soon

On Horizon

In UseHBD

1

Limit work in progress

Team A

Team B

Readiness

Infra.

Current Goal

Up Next

Coming Soon

On Horizon

In UseHBD

1222

Limit work in progress

Team A

Team B

Readiness

Infra.

Current Goal

Up Next

Coming Soon

On Horizon

In UseHBD

1222

Measure with intent

“Long-range planning does not deal with the future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.”

- Peter Drucker

Options-thinking

Real Options

Execute intentionally

Options are valuable

Options expire

Customer/Problem Hypothesis:

Questions & Dependencies:

Name:

Org Benefits:

Option Framing

Option Triggers

Starting or Stopping

- duration - seasonality - stakeholder feedback - govt. policy - major biz activity - competition shift - media/pr event - market shift - technology shift - employee shift - major social incident - better options

“Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”

- George Box

Development Planning Models

Construction

Research

Scientific Research

Custom Construction

Complex Manufacturing

Mass Construction

Routine Manufacturing

Enterprise ERP Impl.

Software Product Dev.

Physical Product Dev.

Small ERP Impl.

Spectrum of Uncertainty

Sensing of knowns Response to unknowns

Amount of unknowables

Benefit

Risk

Cost

Shift Focus

Product: Galaxy

Expires in March

Benefit Mapping

Product: Galaxy

Revenue

Customer Satisfaction

Product Adoption

Product Awareness

Expires in March

Benefit Mapping

Product: Galaxy

Revenue

Customer Satisfaction

Product Adoption

Product Awareness

CompetitivenessDec. Mktg

Costs

Sales Reach

Brand Awareness

Expires in March

Benefit Mapping

Product: Galaxy

Revenue

Customer Satisfaction

Product Adoption

Product Awareness

CompetitivenessDec. Mktg

Costs

Sales Reach

Brand Awareness1

Expires in March

2

3

4

Benefit Mapping

Sales Reach

Increase Revenue

Decrease Mktg. Costs

Product Adoption

Product: Galaxy

Revenue

Customer Satisfaction

Product Adoption

Product Awareness

CompetitivenessDec.

Mktg Costs

Sales Reach

Brand Awareness

1

2

3

4

Weighted Scoring Rubric

Sales Reach 30% Increase

Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product

Adoption 45%

Product: Galaxy

Revenue

Customer Satisfaction

Product Adoption

Product Awareness

CompetitivenessDec.

Mktg Costs

Sales Reach

Brand Awareness

1

2

3

4

Weighted Scoring Rubric

Sales Reach 30% Increase

Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product

Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%

1= <$5k 5= >$50k

1= no change 5= very easy

1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.

Options Scores

Product: Galaxy

Revenue

Customer Satisfaction

Product Adoption

Product Awareness

CompetitivenessDec.

Mktg Costs

Sales Reach

Brand Awareness

1

2

3

4

Weighted Scoring Rubric

Sales Reach 30% Increase

Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product

Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%

1= <$5k 5= >$50k

1= no change 5= very easy

1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.

Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal

Product: Galaxy

Revenue

Customer Satisfaction

Product Adoption

Product Awareness

CompetitivenessDec.

Mktg Costs

Sales Reach

Brand Awareness

1

2

3

4

Weighted Scoring Rubric

Sales Reach 30% Increase

Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product

Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%

1= <$5k 5= >$50k

1= no change 5= very easy

1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.

Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal

4 2 1 3

Product: Galaxy

Revenue

Customer Satisfaction

Product Adoption

Product Awareness

CompetitivenessDec.

Mktg Costs

Sales Reach

Brand Awareness

1

2

3

4

Weighted Scoring Rubric

Sales Reach 30% Increase

Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product

Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%

1= <$5k 5= >$50k

1= no change 5= very easy

1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.

Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal

4 2 1 3 285

Product: Galaxy

Revenue

Customer Satisfaction

Product Adoption

Product Awareness

CompetitivenessDec.

Mktg Costs

Sales Reach

Brand Awareness

1

2

3

4

Weighted Scoring Rubric

Sales Reach 30% Increase

Revenue 10%Decrease Mktg. Costs 15%Product

Adoption 45%1= <1% 5= >15%

1= <$5k 5= >$50k

1= no change 5= very easy

1= <10% of reg. 5= >40% of reg.

Options ScoresNew catalogGrades Portal

43

24

12

31

285295

Product: Galaxy

Revenue

Customer Satisfaction

Product Adoption

Product Awareness

CompetitivenessDec.

Mktg Costs

Sales Reach

Brand Awareness

1

2

3

4

Weighted Scoring Rubric

Activity: Create a B-Map

Your company just got $1B to research medical technology!

Medical Technology

Activity: Create a B-Map

Mind-map desired benefits (value)

Medical Technology

Activity: Create a B-Map

Rank the top 3

Medical Technology

Activity: Create a B-Map

Assign weights

Medical Technology

? % ? % ? %

Activity: Create a B-Map

Come up with 2 research options

Activity: Create a B-Map

Score 2 options (use a 1-5 scale)

Medical Technology

? % ? % ? %

Option 1Option 2

Activity: Create a B-Map

What did you discuss? How did you decide?

Coherence vs. Artifacts

Risk

Discuss Quantify Amplify 1 2 3

1

2

3

1 2 3

2 4 6

3 6 9

Likelihood

Impa

ct

Cost

“Learn just enough about cost to decide if its worth it to start.”

- Brief discussion - Rough-order magnitude - Snap to linear scale

“More effective development planning is achieved through using a flow-based road map

laid out with real options from which we can choose based primarily on the benefits they

provide while considering risks and understanding just enough about cost to get started.”

Questions?

Matt Barcomb @mattbarcomb matt@odbox.co