lou thompsoncaltraingovernance
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Thompson, Galenson and Associates, LLC14684 Stoneridge DriveSaratoga, CA 95070-5745
Tel: (408) 647-2104Fax: (408) 647-2105lou.thompson@gmail.comhttp://www.tgaassoc.com
Where To With Caltrain Governance?Caltrain Governance Discussion
Lou Thompson
February 11, 2014
The Major Points
Caltrain does well operationally, BUT
Major changes coming Major issues to be resolved Options for new ownership and
governance structures Making the decision: benefits,
risks and resources For the sake of argument: one
idea
Passengers(millions)
MTA (LIRR)
MTA (MNRR)
NJT (NJ)
Metra (IL)
SEPTA (PA)
MBTA (MA)
Caltrain (CA)
Metrolink (CA)
MTA (MD)
VRE (VA)
Tri-Rail (FL)
NICTD (IN)
ST (WA)
DART (TX)
UTA (UT)
NCTD (CA)
RMRTD (NM)
ACE (CA)
Metro (MN)
CDOT (CT)
PENNDOT
NNEPRA (ME)
RTA (TN)
DCTA (TX)
0102030405060708090
100
NOTE: All comparisons are 2011 data from FTA database
Passenger-Miles(000)
MTA (MNRR)
MTA (LIRR)
NJT (NJ)
Metra (IL)
MBTA (MA)
SEPTA (PA)
Metrolink (CA)
Caltrain (CA)
MTA (MD)
VRE (VA)
Tri-Rail (FL)
NICTD (IN)
ST (WA)
RMRTD (NM)
DART (TX)
PENNDOT
UTA (UT)
NNEPRA (ME)
NCTD (CA)
ACE (CA)
Metro (MN)
CDOT (CT)
RTA (TN)
DCTA (TX)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Revenue/Passenger-Mile($)
MTA (LIRR)
SEPTA (PA)
NJT (NJ)
VRE (VA)
MTA (MNRR)
PENNDOT
Metrolink (CA)
MTA (MD)
DART (TX)
MBTA (MA)
NNEPRA (ME)
NICTD (IN)
NCTD (CA)
Caltrain (CA)
CDOT (CT)
Metro (MN)
Metra (IL)
RTA (TN)
ST (WA)
ACE (CA)
DCTA (TX)
Tri-Rail (FL)
UTA (UT)
RMRTD (NM)
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Operating Expense/Passenger-Mile($)
DCTA (TX)
CDOT (CT)
RTA (TN)
Metro (MN)
DART (TX)
ST (WA)
MTA (LIRR)
UTA (UT)
Tri-Rail (FL)
SEPTA (PA)
RMRTD (NM)
PENNDOT
NJT (NJ)
Metrolink (CA)
NCTD (CA)
MBTA (MA)
VRE (VA)
MTA (MD)
NICTD (IN)
Metra (IL)
ACE (CA)
NNEPRA (ME)
MTA (MNRR)
Caltrain (CA)
-
0.200
0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.200 4.24 1.96
NOTE: DCTA and CDOT are truncated as shown
Revenue/Expense Ratio(%)
MTA (MNRR)
NJT (NJ)
SEPTA (PA)
VRE (VA)
MTA (LIRR)
Caltrain (CA)
PENNDOT
MTA (MD)
NNEPRA (ME)
NICTD (IN)
Metrolink (CA)
MBTA (MA)
Metra (IL)
NCTD (CA)
ACE (CA)
DART (TX)
ST (WA)
Tri-Rail (FL)
Metro (MN)
RTA (TN)
UTA (UT)
RMRTD (NM)
CDOT (CT)
DCTA (TX)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Average Trip Length(Miles)
NNEPRA (ME)
PENNDOT
ACE (CA)
RMRTD (NM)
Metrolink (CA)
MTA (MNRR)
VRE (VA)
MTA (MD)
Tri-Rail (FL)
NICTD (IN)
NCTD (CA)
UTA (UT)
Metro (MN)
NJT (NJ)
ST (WA)
Caltrain (CA)
Metra (IL)
CDOT (CT)
MTA (LIRR)
MBTA (MA)
DART (TX)
RTA (TN)
DCTA (TX)
SEPTA (PA)
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Average Speed(MPH)
PENNDOT
CDOT (CT)
MTA (MD)
NCTD (CA)
ACE (CA)
Metrolink (CA)
ST (WA)
RMRTD (NM)
Metro (MN)
MTA (MNRR)
NNEPRA (ME)
NICTD (IN)
Caltrain (CA)
NJT (NJ)
VRE (VA)
MTA (LIRR)
Metra (IL)
RTA (TN)
Tri-Rail (FL)
MBTA (MA)
UTA (UT)
SEPTA (PA)
DCTA (TX)
DART (TX)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Mix with HSR?
Passenger-Miles/Vehicle-Mile:Rough Indicator of Load Factor
VRE (VA)
MTA (MD)
MTA (MNRR)
Caltrain (CA)
ACE (CA)
ST (WA)
RMRTD (NM)
Tri-Rail (FL)
DART (TX)
Metra (IL)
Metrolink (CA)
MTA (LIRR)
Metro (MN)
MBTA (MA)
NJT (NJ)
NICTD (IN)
SEPTA (PA)
NCTD (CA)
NNEPRA (ME)
UTA (UT)
RTA (TN)
PENNDOT
DCTA (TX)
CDOT (CT)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Vehicle-Miles/Train-Mile:Average Train Length
MTA (LIRR)
NJT (NJ)
MTA (MNRR)
Metra (IL)
ACE (CA)
ST (WA)
VRE (VA)
MBTA (MA)
MTA (MD)
NCTD (CA)
PENNDOT
Caltrain (CA)
NICTD (IN)
NNEPRA (ME)
Metrolink (CA)
Metro (MN)
CDOT (CT)
SEPTA (PA)
RMRTD (NM)
UTA (UT)
Tri-Rail (FL)
DART (TX)
RTA (TN)
DCTA (TX)
- 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0
10.0
Major Changes Are Coming
Electrification of Caltrain DTX (with ET, could double
Caltrain demand) HSR UP (freight on Caltrain line) ACE extensions (Dumbarton
Bridge)? BART to San Jose
Major Issues
Money (Caltrain, DTX and HSR) Joint operations on same lines:
who owns, schedules, dispatches, pays what to whom, and is liable?
Level boarding and common platform heights (Transbay Terminal)
Grade crossings must be eliminated
The Options
Structure Business Models
Rail Structures
INFRASTRUCTURE OPERATIONS PASSENGER PASSENGER Suburban Intercity HSR FREIGHT Suburban Intercity HSR FREIGHT Examples
Integral (Monolithic) Local or National Railway National Railway National
RailwayPrivate or National Railway
Local or National Railway
National Railway
National Railway
Private or National Railway
China, India, BART
Dominant/TenantLocal operator
usually dominant with intercity
tenants
Intercity operators usually dominant: freight in US,
passenger in Japan
Intercity freight
operators dominant
Local control, some freight and intercity tenants
Freight tenants
Passenger tenants,
some freight tenants by trackage rights
US (Class I and Amtrak), Canada, Japan
Separated Infrastructure Local or national Network provider
National Network Provider
National Network Provider
National Network Provider
Local agencies
National Operator,
competition possible
National Operator,
competition possible
Multiple operators
EU model, Australia
Bringing Ownership Into the Picture
Fully State-Owned Partnerships Privately Owned
Integral (Monolithic) China, Belarus, South Africa,
Network Rail? Exclusive
Passenger and freight
concessions
Smaller US freight railroads (500),
East Japan, Central Japan
and West Japan, Taiwan
HSR
Dominant Operator Integral, tenant operators pay for access
Amtrak and VIA, Japan Rail Freight, Russia
Caltrain with UP as tenant
Most US freight railways
Vertical Separation ("Open Access") all operators pay for access
"Standard" EU model
Some UK franchises, Network Rail?
Most UK franchises, Railtrack (but not Network Rail), EWS
Unbund
ling
Private Role
Business Models in Rail Passenger Service
Wholly integral – BART Management contract – Caltrain,
MBTA Gross cost franchise (UK urban
franchises) Net cost franchise (UK longer haul
franchises, Rio and BsAs suburban) Wholly private (Taiwan HSR,
Japanese HSR)
The U.K. Model?
Network Rail, a “not for profit” corporation owns, improves and maintains the infrastructure.
Network Rail charges franchises (and freight companies) a published set of access charges. These charges recover all maintenance and some of the investment: regulated by ORR
Private companies compete for 5-7 year passenger franchises awarded by DfT with some role by local authorities. Competition is usually for minimum support, but can include payments to government. Freight minimally supported.
Rolling stock leased from leasing companies (ROSCOs) Services and charges regulated by ORR
CA Services and UK Franchise Passengers
(000,000)
SW SouthnSeasternN
XEA
1st Cap
1st GW
Northn
1st ScotLon M
idLon O
vhdM
erseyC2C
Arriva
1st Tx PnE M
idChilt
Caltrain
Metrolink
NCTD
ACE
-
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
Note: UK Data taken from ORR National Rail Trends Yearbook 2010/2011
CA Services and UK Franchises:Passenger-Miles (000,000)
SW 1st GW
SouthnSeasternN
XEA
1st Cap
1st ScotE M
idN
orthnLon M
id1st Tx PnArriva
C2C
Chilt
Lon Ovhd
Mersey
Metrolink
Caltrain
NCTD
ACE
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
CA Services and UK Franchises: Miles of Line
1st ScotN
orthn1st G
WArriva
E Mid
1st Tx PnN
XEA
SW Lon Mid
SeasternSouthn1st C
apChilt
C2C
Lon Ovhd
Mersey
Metrolink
Caltrain
ACE
NCTD
- 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0
1,000.0 1,200.0 1,400.0 1,600.0 1,800.0 2,000.0
CA Services and UK Franchises:Average Trip Length (Mi)
E Mid
1st Tx Pn1st G
WChilt
Arriva
NXEA
1st Scot1st C
apLon M
idSW C2C
SouthnSeasternN
orthnM
erseyLon O
vhdACE
Metrolink
NCTD
Caltrain
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
CA Services and UK Franchises: Traffic Density
(Pass-Mile/Mile of Line)
C2C
Southn1st C
apSW SeasternLon O
vhdM
erseyN
XEA
Chilt
1st GW
Lon Mid
E Mid
1st Tx Pn1st ScotN
orthnArriva
Caltrain
Metrolink
NCTD
ACE
-
1,000.0
2,000.0
3,000.0
4,000.0
5,000.0
6,000.0
7,000.0
8,000.0
Making the Decision
Public versus market (private) benefit and cost balance: wholly public leads to BART, wholly private to Taiwan HSR. Usually the result is a balance (there is a public role)
Risk allocation (cost, schedule and demand)
Resources (who can pay and under what conditions). Model has to match the money
No magic solutions
For Argument: One Approach
DTX tracks leased to Caltrain for a fee (not based on use) Caltrain owns/leases and maintains all infrastructure
(stations?). Charges HSR/others an access fee based on use (various options)
HSR/Caltrain agree on schedules, have joint dispatching (CTC) center to ensure neutrality in dispatching
HSR franchise operator will be allowed to compete for Caltrain franchise (or contract) when re-offered
UP replaced by short line operator that uses electric traction and operates only at night (full temporal separation)
State/local program to eliminate all grade crossings before HSR
Re-open Dumbarton Bridge to remove freight and let ACE serve mid-Peninsula directly
Oversight agency to coordinate all services. Harmonize fares and and provide common ticketing?
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