macro road signs - industrial and commercial bank of china€¦ · macro road signs december 2017 ....
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Gary Licht
Gary.Licht@icbcstandard.com +44 203 145 6704
www.icbcstandard.com
This is a marketing communication which has been prepared by a trader, sales person or analyst of ICBC Standard Bank Plc or its affiliates and is provided for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, commodity or other financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. ICBC Standard Bank or its affiliates may from time to time have long or short positions in financial instruments referred to in this material. The material does not constitute, nor should it be regarded as, investment research.
Contents
1Road Signs Basic Structure Reading Shapes 2
Model AllocationAllocation Matrix 3
Top 10Introduction 4 Ghana (GHS) 10Mozambique (MZN) 5 Kazakhstan (KZT) 11Egypt (EGP) 6 Turkey (TRY) 12Nigeria (NGN) 7 Azerbaijan (AZN) 13Mexico (MXN) 8 Uzbekistan (UZS) 14Ukraine (UAH) 9
Country Profiles
Regional SummaryConsolidated Road Signs 15
Africa 16
Algeria 17 Côte d'Ivoire 22 Ghana 27 Morocco 32 Senegal 37Angola 18 Egypt 23 Guinea 28 Mozambique 33 Tanzania 38Botswana 19 Ethiopia 24 Kenya 29 Namibia 34 Tunisia 39Cameroon 20 Gabon 25 Malawi 30 Nigeria 35 Uganda 40Congo (Democratic Republic) 21 Gambia 26 Mauritius 31 Rwanda 36 Zambia 41
CEMEA 42
Bulgaria 43 Iceland 48 Romania 53 Turkey 58Croatia 44 Israel 49 Serbia 54Czech Rep 45 Latvia 50 Slovakia 55Estonia 46 Lithuania 51 Slovenia 56Hungary 47 Poland 52 South Africa 57
CIS 59
Armenia 60 Kyrgyz Republic 65 Ukraine 70Azerbaijan 61 Moldova 66 Uzbekistan 71Belarus 62 Russia 67Georgia 63 Tajikistan 68Kazakhstan 64 Turkmenistan 69
E Asia 72
Cambodia 73 Malaysia 78 South Korea 83
China 74 Mongolia 79 Taiwan 84
Hong Kong 75 Myanmar 80 Thailand 85
Indonesia 76 Philippines 81 Vietnam 86
Laos 77 Singapore 82
Gulf 87
Bahrain 88 United Arab Emirates 93
Kuwait 89
Oman 90
Qatar 91
Saudi Arabia 92
LatAm 94
Argentina 95 Colombia 100 Honduras 105 Peru 110
Barbados 96 Dominican Rep 101 Jamaica 106 Uruguay 111
Bolivia 97 El Salvador 102 Mexico 107 Venezuela 112
Brazil 98 Ecuador 103 Panama 108
Chile 99 Guatemala 104 Paraguay 109
S Asia 113
Bangladesh 114
India 115
Nepal 116
Pakistan 117
Sri Lanka 118
Disclaimer 119
Road Signs
Basic Structure
Time series analysis
• Baseline to own 10yr history• Bias to flow variables• Tracks short term
momentum and 10yr trend
Assessing economic RISK
AA1 A2
B
B1 B2
B3
B4
Cross sectional analysis
• Baseline to other economiesat a point in time
• Bias to stock variables• Ranks against peers now
and on a trend basis
Assessing economic STRUCTURE
A1. Macro Road Sign: Risk Time Series
• Visual aid to 6 key variables• Scored on scale of 1-10• High score means high pressure• Scores adjusted for direction as linear or inverse• Scores can be interpreted as scaled percentile rank of
the most recent reading in a sample of the last 10 yrs.• For example a reading of 9.0 means 90th percentile or
40 percentage points above the long term trend• 4 hemispheres representing external pressure,
domestic pressure, growth quality and currencyvulnerability
• Dots represent momentum and are expressed in unitsof standard deviation transformed into percentilescores. High numbers is high negative momentumand low is high positive momentum
• Next year’s CPI forecast also appears on the road sign as this is an important policy driver
A2. Macro Risk Scores
• Table providing detailed account of underlying or related data to road sign
• 3 most recent raw data numbers• 2 most recent momentum scores• Most recent risk scores• Scores in the top quartile are coloured red
B1. Macro Road Sign: Regional Cross Section
• Scores represent the scaled percentile rank across themost recent regional sample
• Otherwise similar to time series road sign
B2. Economic Structure
• Table providing detailed account of selected variablesto asses economic structure and trend
• Current reading compared to regional and EM median • Change in EM ranking over last 5yr period across our
universe of 90+ countries• Raw data in the top quartile is coloured red and data in
the bottom quartile is coloured green• This has not been adjusted for direction (high = high)
B3. Competitiveness
• Table providing detailed account of selectedcompetitiveness factors
• Similar measures to B2
B4. Demographic Forecasts
• Table providing 10yr demographic forecasts• Tracks population, urbanisation and dependency ratios• Similar measures to B2 and B3
1
Reading Shapes
1. Design
2. External and Domestic: Inflating and Deflating Balloons
3. Growth and Currency: Smiles and Frowns
High External Pressure High Domestic Pressure Recession Adjusted
High Growth / High Quality
1. External 2. Domestic
4. Currency
1. External (W Hemisphere)
• REER• Import Cover• Current Account
2. Domestic (E Hemisphere)
• Real GDP Growth• Fiscal Balance• Consumer Price Index
3. Growth (N Hemisphere)
• Current Account• Real GDP Growth• Fiscal Balance
4. Currency (S Hemisphere)
• Consumer Price Index• REER• Import Cover
Growth High CA Low Fiscal Low
Overvalued Currency / Low
Vulnerability
REER High Imp. Low CPI Low
3. Growth
Low Growth / Low Quality
Growth Low CA High Fiscal High
2
Allocation Matrix
BYN
ETB
HUF
CZK
DZD
UZS
GMD
RSD
PLN
RUB
RON
UAH TZS
MWK
GHS
HRK
KGS
TND
ISK
JMDZMW
ZAR
BWP
GNF
NADINR
COP
BRL
BBD
ECS
PAB
MAD
THBKZT
PHP
PKR
IDR
TRY
UGX
KWD
MUR
ILS
XAFXAF
QAR
MDL
XOF
SGD
AED
BHD
MXN
BDT
TWD
SAR
PEN
NPR
BOB
DOP
RWFKHR
GEL
PYG
SVC
CNY
KES
NGN
KRW
GTQ
LAK
MNT
HNL
LKR
UYU
VND
AZN
MYR
EGP
ARS
AOA
CLP
MZNBGN
‐
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
‐ 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50
RiskScore
+ + + 0 − − −
lowerrisk
overweight neutral underweight
Key
RiskScore
+ + + 0 − − −
lowerrisk
overweight neutral underweight
Key
Valuation Score
RiskScore
+ + + 0 − − −
under-valued
lowerrisk
overweight neutral underweight
Assessing currencies on risk and valuation
Our allocation model assesses currency risk across a number of factors considered relevant for high risk emerging markets with a bias to economic fundamentals and carry returns. Like any model, it is far from perfect and does not always reflect extremes adequately. We consider it a baseline for further investigation that seeks to identify other relevant factors such as event risk, current policy stance and, depending on the liquidity of the underlying currency, technicals.
Results Overview
As reflected later, the regional road signs point to generally undervalued currencies in the CIS and Africa with overvalued currencies in Asia and Latin America. The median Latin American currency is primarily driven by the managed currencies of Central America and hides good opportunities in the more liquid currencies on the mainland. From a valuation viewpoint, South Asia fares worse than East Asia but there is some variability in each economy’s ability to sustain this. Africa is another region that displays great variability with some of the best and worst currencies in our universe. High nominal yields and cyclical economic rebalancing underpins the top performers. The CIS exhibits similarly positive rebalancing dynamics but with less variability and a greater discount in median valuation.
Matrix
3
Introduction
Africa and CIS Dominate
As home to the most undervalued currencies and highest onshore nominal rates, the top 10 is dominated by Africa and the CIS:
Despite a variance in the maturity of the cycle, most can be seen as following the classic EM model of local market opportunity:
• Recent currency devaluation or significant weakness triggerso Attractive REER valuationso Transitory increase in inflation leads to
§ High nominal rates§ Slowdown in capital outflows§ Increase in investment flows§ Improving current account§ For managed currencies, policy reluctance for further currency weakness (in order to avoid
escalating inflation expectations)
Of course, recent currency weakness and high nominal rates is not enough to select for attractive risk-reward and we also look for
• Severe enough weakness to make a second round devaluation unlikely• Reasonable and /or improving reserve levels• Reasonable and / or improving net external flows (current account + net FDI)• Reasonable onshore real rates as measured against current and forecast inflation
The critical point is that currency weakness and higher rates need to be cathartic and lead to economic adjustment that heals the imbalances of the economy. Given the managed nature of many EM currencies, it is also crucial to understand how currency policy preference and habits structurally limit appreciatory or depreciatory potential. In general, the CIS countries offer lower carry but more stable and appreciating currencies while Africa provides plenty of yield against higher risk currencies.
1. Mozambique 2. Egypt3. Nigeria4. Mexico5. Ukraine
6. Ghana7. Kazakhstan 8. Turkey9. Azerbaijan10. Uzbekistan
4
Mozambique
Mozambican Metical (MZN)
It is somewhat awkward sticking with a currency that has rallied 25% from its 2015 high but we are going to do it any way with the Metical. The economic rebalancing has been painful but impressive and with onshore yields of 26% and a REER that is still 40% below its 10 year average, we see little not to like. The original currency blow up in 2014-2016 was caused by massive project spending seeing the current account deficit rise much faster than FDI. Since this bubble burst, net FDI has halved to 14% but the current account has dropped from 40% in 2015 to 16% this year implying that net external flows has contracted from -14% to -2% over this period. These numbers are expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2018. It is a similar story on the domestic front where domestic credit growth has dropped from 38% in 2015 and 19% in 2016 to 1.6% in 2017; this trajectory in monetary growth has been 26%, 10% and 0.1%, respectively. While these domestic price indicators are likely to rise off their low bases, inflation is only expected to rise to 8% from the current 7%.
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.0 3.9 0.0 -40.3 -38.3 -16.2 2.2 2.6 5.3 - 6.1 - 3.9 -4.2 4.30.0 -28.1 -12.9 9.7 9.1 29.6 26.2 23.2 8.59.9 0.4 -15.6 -26.0 -16.7 6.4 0.9 2.9 35.7 30.0 27.4 2.35.9 9.6 -2.0 -2.3 -4.6 8.59.7 0.8 5.4 2.8 5.0 8.8
4.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.8 9.8 26.1 28.3 14.2 7.2 2.0 2.1 37.5 18.6 1.6 0.39.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 -0.1 3.9 0.8 2.3 26.1 10.1 0.7 0.02.5 1.0 -14.2 -10.0 -2.0 2.2 8.3 2.2 3.6 19.9 7.2 5.1
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
9.0 0.1 5.2 4.2 6.3 0.7 4.4 0.0 5.3 5.8 24.0 0.00.6 0.0 32.2 34.8 43.6 0.0 2.3 Other
5.1 0.0 9.4 2.8 5.7 4.2 1.0 0.0 1.8 6.6 3.8 3.0 0.09.4 5.0 -11.2 -8.4 -8.4 5.1 3.4 5.4 73.4 56.8 60.6 2.3
8.0 0.4 1.8 - 14.0 16.9 1.37.1 2.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 7.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
2.3 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.0 0.20.5 1.6 3.2 2.8 2.5 7.1 -4.2 3.87.7 2.1 29.2 36.5 28.9 6.7 -16.2 1.94.2 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.7 6.3 7.2 4.84.4 3.9 -0.1 0.1 0.6 2.4 16.9 1.2
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
-16.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
16.1 5.0
Level
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Imp Cover (mths)
REER
7.2Real GDP (%)REER4
External
60.6
3.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-4.2
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.0-15.87.9
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real Rate
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
5.2
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.8
4.8
4.9
2018f3.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
Macro Road Sign
5
Egypt
Egyptian Pound (EGP)
Egypt fits the earlier described EM model perfectly and offers an attractive currency valuation and extremely high yields. The REER is 23% below its long term average and onshore yields are 19%. Despite IMF pressure to move to a more genuinely floating regime, Egyptian authorities display a strong and long established bias to stability. This stance is further supported by high inflation of 26% that is forecast to fall to a still impressive 15% in 2018. The IMF continues to underpin inflows while reserves and the current account have improved markedly this year. Reserves have reached 6 months of import cover and the current account is expected to continue its consolidation in 2018. Despite some improvement, at 10.8% the fiscal deficit is still astoundingly high and there is little prospect for improvement next year. However, we believe IMF commitment is steadfast and the geopolitical significance of Egypt draws a ring-fence around these budgetary concerns.
1. External Domestic2.Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
4.8 9.7 0.8 -5.9 -8.7 -6.4 9.2 7.5 1.6 - 10.9 - 12.1 -10.8 7.38.9 2.0 -13.2 -15.9 -14.1 8.2 9.9 2.5 22.0 18.1 19.5 9.18.1 3.0 2.8 1.9 2.4 9.0 0.9 5.4 33.0 30.2 30.4 1.45.7 9.8 -1.7 -1.8 -3.3 9.2 9.9 6.0 7.3 9.0 9.2 9.82.4 1.4 6.2 7.1 8.6 0.7 3.3 0.9 - 3.6 - 3.1 -1.6 1.6
7.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
2.9 1.7 2.1 2.9 4.5 1.9 9.9 0.0 25.6 39.2 19.8 5.25.8 9.9 0.0 0.7 9.1 10.0 10.0 2.9 18.6 39.5 35.0 9.88.2 0.4 -3.8 -5.8 -1.9 6.7 8.1 10.0 10.4 13.8 26.0 10.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 8.2 9.8 - 3.1 8.1 35.4 10.07.0 1.5 56.8 51.6 61.6 5.4 4.1 0.0 11.0 11.3 18.9 0.08.4 0.0 13.2 10.4 19.0 5.3 2.3 Other
10.0 5.2 6.6 32.3 32.1 30.8 1.3 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.86.0 3.0 -74.0 -71.7 -75.9 2.1 0.0 6.7 128.3 70.5 79.9 1.14.9 0.1 117.1 117.2 128.0 0.1 7.4 8.2 0.6 - 2.5 -7.1 9.42.6 10.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 6.1 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.2 7.00.1 0.1 15.9 11.4 5.4 1.8 -10.8 5.89.6 0.3 28.6 51.5 23.8 5.6 -6.4 4.61.4 0.4 2.7 4.2 6.7 1.4 26.0 6.57.4 0.5 3.8 0.6 8.8 0.0 -7.1 2.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
-6.4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
3.9 5.0
Level
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Imp Cover (mths)
REER
26Real GDP (%)REER4
External
79.9
6.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-10.8
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-10.2-3.315.0
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real Rate
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
0.1
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.6
3.4
0.5
2018f4.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
Macro Road Sign
6
Nigeria
Nigerian Naira (NGN)
Nigeria is in a similar place to Egypt but has a REER close to its long term average and, at 16%, slightly lower yields. Nonetheless, it still offers exceptional carry for the currency risk. Notwithstanding the odd bout of erratic OMO activity, the central bank maintains a strong bias for Naira stability and should not face too many headwinds from the economic fundamentals. Despite low growth and a relatively elevated fiscal deficit of 2-2.5%, the current account and reserves have shown strong positive momentum in 2017 with the former now well in surplus and the latter at 8 months of import cover.
External1. 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.7 0.3 2.5 -3.1 0.7 2.3 6.4 9.9 3.1 - 1.1 - 2.8 -2.3 8.73.0 2.1 -1.3 -0.1 1.9 8.6 7.8 3.4 3.7 3.0 3.3 9.00.2 7.8 -3.3 -2.0 -2.4 0.5 8.7 4.9 4.8 5.7 5.7 2.23.4 7.7 -2.6 -2.1 -2.6 0.70.3 1.9 4.1 4.9 5.4 4.5
8.7 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
1.6 4.5 0.3 0.8 0.8 7.7 4.8 3.8 30.7 25.6 5.5 2.65.4 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.9 4.8 1.8 19.1 18.4 3.5 1.50.2 2.5 -2.8 1.4 3.1 6.7 9.9 5.2 9.0 15.7 15.9 9.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.0 3.2 72.1 60.6 70.3 9.1 6.4 1.2 10.5 9.3 13.0 0.75.9 3.5 10.7 9.2 11.7 9.1 2.3 Other
9.6 3.2 9.3 29.2 31.3 25.1 2.0 0.6 7.9 2.7 - 1.6 0.7 0.79.6 4.2 -87.5 -57.9 -61.5 9.1 0.0 6.8 116.2 92.1 96.4 3.66.5 4.6 33.0 21.3 23.9 9.1 9.7 2.4 1.5 - 6.4 -3.0 5.75.5 5.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.6 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 0.7 2.35.6 0.0 3.6 3.6 2.4 4.8 -2.3 8.46.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 5.71.8 2.0 4.8 6.6 8.4 3.5 15.9 8.09.3 4.5 3.8 -11.7 -10.2 1.6 -3.0 3.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
2.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
-1.3 5.0
Level
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Imp Cover (mths)
REER
15.9Real GDP (%)REER4
External
96.4
8.4
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
0.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.3
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.42.3
14.2
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real Rate
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
2.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.9
5.4
5.0
2018f2.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
Macro Road Sign
7
Mexico
Mexican Peso (MXN)
This month’s MXN sell off and rate hike appears to offer good entry for the MXN carry trade. The REER is 17% below its long term average; USDMXN is 10% off its 2017 lows; and 6m yields now offer 8.0%. It would be remiss not to note that USDMXN is 12% off the 2017 highs but we believe the risk to revisiting these levels is low. Indeed, this high coincided with Trump taking office and was assuming the worst with respect to NAFTA renegotiations. While next year’s presidential election will be a continuing source of noise and most economic conditions remain decidedly average, we think the current timing of the monetary policy and inflation cycle offers attractive entry. Despite the recent uptick, inflation is forecast to moderate from the current 6.6% to 4% in 2018 while Banxico policy remains, in our view, excessively hawkish.
External1. 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.0 2.9 2.4 -2.5 -2.1 -1.7 6.1 1.1 2.3 - 3.4 - 2.5 -1.9 4.14.8 2.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 6.3 0.6 0.4 23.0 24.1 25.5 0.05.0 4.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 1.3 6.3 8.3 26.4 26.6 27.4 9.65.9 5.4 -2.4 -2.6 -2.6 8.8 7.8 10.0 2.2 2.4 2.9 10.00.2 4.4 2.1 2.5 2.5 0.8 0.5 0.7 - 1.2 - 0.1 1.0 1.5
4.1 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.2 5.8 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.1 8.7 0.4 12.9 18.9 9.2 5.06.6 4.0 0.6 1.5 1.0 7.7 7.4 3.0 7.2 10.6 8.0 2.71.5 4.2 -0.4 0.5 0.7 2.4 5.5 10.0 2.7 2.8 6.6 10.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 9.9 7.8 0.4 5.4 7.5 9.55.3 1.6 437.2 434.3 473.8 0.7 4.7 0.0 2.7 2.8 7.7 1.10.2 3.9 34.6 37.1 37.5 0.2 2.3 Other
10.0 1.9 6.1 5.7 6.2 6.0 5.9 4.7 4.2 3.3 2.9 2.1 5.05.8 1.9 -466.0 -457.3 -493.6 0.8 0.6 7.5 91.9 79.0 85.0 0.57.8 4.1 86.6 81.3 82.9 9.7 5.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.19.6 2.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 9.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.1 5.02.3 8.6 4.0 3.8 4.1 2.7 -1.9 4.40.8 6.6 39.2 30.3 33.2 3.4 -1.7 8.34.1 8.7 5.0 5.1 4.6 5.1 6.6 4.02.6 9.5 -8.9 8.9 -37.5 7.5 1.0 1.2
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
-1.7
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
3.8 5.1
Level
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Imp Cover (mths)
REER
6.6Real GDP (%)REER4
External
85
4.6
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1.9
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.2-2.23.9
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real Rate
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
0.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.0
6.4
7.9
2018f2.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
Macro Road Sign
8
Ukraine
Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH)
The currency has maintained a 10% band over the last 2 years and is currently near the top of that range with seasonal support expected to emerge in the first half of next year. Against this, yields in the mid-teens look very attractive. Despite rampant inflation over the last couple of years, the REER remains well below its long term average and after showing some stubbornness in the mid-teens; inflation is forecast to drop towards 10% in 2018. While the external accounts are expected to remain under some pressure, reserves have stabilised and we expect the IMF to stay the course.
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
6.7 8.4 4.7 -0.2 -3.7 -3.4 3.4 6.5 6.2 - 1.4 - 2.2 -2.9 5.18.6 3.5 -3.8 -7.4 -6.1 2.4 4.9 4.7 32.8 32.8 33.0 0.56.5 5.3 1.9 1.6 1.5 8.9 7.0 6.9 34.2 35.1 35.9 9.63.8 8.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.7 7.23.5 5.9 2.9 3.2 3.0 0.8
5.1 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.5 8.3 3.3 3.5 2.1 8.5 6.8 5.6 - 0.4 11.3 14.9 3.80.9 0.0 3.4 0.5 -8.9 0.0 6.5 5.6 4.0 10.9 13.7 4.38.2 6.2 3.1 -0.2 -1.3 5.7 0.1 5.5 48.7 13.9 16.2 5.5
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 1.6 6.3 35.9 20.6 26.2 7.75.3 3.5 55.6 54.2 61.3 8.3 0.0 9.8 10.3 25.3 14.5 2.28.5 4.9 52.6 49.3 49.4 2.1 2.3 Other
5.5 2.4 10.0 10.5 11.3 6.5 9.9 9.1 4.9 - 9.8 2.3 2.1 6.74.7 3.8 -55.8 -57.6 -65.0 8.1 4.6 5.2 80.4 79.1 79.7 0.84.1 0.1 106.2 107.5 120.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 - 38.4 11.3 -1.7 4.36.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.1 6.74.2 4.6 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.8 -2.9 3.83.8 3.6 149.9 129.7 105.4 3.7 -3.4 7.53.9 3.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.7 16.2 3.95.0 8.9 5.6 5.6 -1.2 3.3 -1.7 3.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
-3.4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
3.4 5.0
Level
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Imp Cover (mths)
REER
16.2Real GDP (%)REER4
External
79.7
4
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.9
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.6-6.511.1
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real Rate
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
3.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.8
4.5
8.2
2018f1.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
Macro Road Sign
9
Ghana
Ghanaian Cedi (GHS)
From a purely economic perspective, Ghana is potentially the pick of the bunch. After years of low quality growth, 2017 saw growth rebound to 7.5% with strong improvements in the perennial twin deficits. Inflation has trended lower from the high to the low teens and the banking sector has dealt relatively well with the previously high level of non-performing loans. As a % of GDP, net FDI remains stable in the high single digits and easily funds the current account deficit. These positive trends are expected to be maintained next year. While the economic dynamics might suggest the potential for currency appreciation, we note that the Cedi sold off 6% this year and has historically shown very little ability to appreciate against the Dollar. Despite some risk that lower inflation and rate cuts draw in forward hedging, onshore rates still offer 17% and the REER remains 14% below its long term average. On balance, we think the economics wins out on limiting the degree of currency weakness and current yields appear attractive.
External1. Domestic2.Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.8 3.4 0.5 -7.7 -6.6 -3.0 0.0 6.8 3.1 - 6.4 - 7.9 -6.3 2.81.3 0.6 -8.5 -4.1 2.1 0.0 9.9 7.1 23.4 20.1 19.1 6.34.7 8.4 -3.2 -3.0 -5.0 7.8 2.8 2.2 29.8 28.0 25.4 2.94.6 9.0 -3.0 -2.9 -4.8 9.4
10.0 1.7 7.0 3.4 4.8 8.3 2.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.9 5.8 8.1 8.1 7.8 5.4 5.9 1.6 13.3 17.0 0.6 0.13.7 6.0 25.6 22.5 25.0 2.4
3.4 0.9 0.4 1.5 4.8 0.0 5.3 0.8 17.2 17.5 11.7 3.31.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.4 1.5 22.1 20.7 23.1 0.6 4.3 9.8 24.0 25.1 13.3 8.08.7 3.7 45.5 41.0 42.4 1.3 2.3 Other
3.3 9.6 5.1 16.5 10.2 10.0 7.6 4.9 8.4 3.8 3.7 7.5 5.86.9 3.6 -24.9 -23.5 -24.5 1.5 9.2 4.0 78.7 89.8 87.6 1.82.2 0.0 97.9 103.8 125.4 0.0 4.5 8.0 6.8 7.6 1.6 7.10.3 2.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 3.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 7.5 4.36.2 4.2 2.2 2.4 2.2 3.5 -6.3 1.61.0 1.6 56.1 45.4 36.5 0.2 -3.0 0.24.0 2.3 3.4 3.6 4.2 0.8 11.7 1.90.6 6.6 -2.4 -1.4 -1.7 8.3 1.6 6.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
-3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
3.4 5.0
Level
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Imp Cover (mths)
REER
11.7Real GDP (%)REER4
External
87.6
4.2
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
7.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-6.3
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.4-2.79.9
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real Rate
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
3.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.0
3.9
4.5
2018f6.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
Macro Road Sign
10
Kazakhstan
Kazakh Tenge (KZT)
After the unfounded devaluation speculation in Q3, authorities have managed to bring expectations under control. While concerns in the banking sector undoubtedly fuelled negative sentiment, the macroeconomic fundamentals never warranted such speculation. Indeed, the REER is 20% below the long term average, reserves are high and stable and the national wealth fund (at 40% of GDP) is well positioned to manage the ongoing restructuring of the banking sector. While the fiscal deficit is high by historical standards, it was still only a modest 2.4% in 2017 and is expected to moderate in 2018. FDI has experienced a sharp drop from 2015’s elevated levels but is still large enough to cover the bulk of a narrowing current account deficit. KZT has been trading as a low beta RUB since its liberalisation but, even by this measure, has managed to lag its larger neighbour in recent months. KZT currently offers 7% of yield and we judge appreciatory potential of 5% in order to get back to the 2017 USDKZT lows.
External1. 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.5 7.2 3.3 -2.9 -6.7 -4.0 7.8 2.7 8.5 - 1.5 - 0.3 -2.4 9.05.1 3.0 7.1 6.9 10.4 8.4 1.9 0.4 19.2 20.4 22.8 1.17.4 4.1 -2.8 -3.6 -3.3 2.5 4.8 10.0 20.7 20.6 25.2 10.09.4 6.8 -6.2 -9.7 -10.9 3.6 10.0 10.0 0.7 1.1 2.4 10.01.5 5.0 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 2.3 2.1 - 0.7 0.9
9.0 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.0 9.6 1.6 10.1 3.3 7.8 1.3 1.1 23.0 5.2 -14.3 0.22.2 7.2 5.0 -0.2 3.8 8.5 9.7 0.2 7.9 46.4 12.7 3.82.5 7.3 -1.3 3.4 -0.7 9.1 9.6 0.9 6.2 14.2 7.3 3.3
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 9.0 4.8 - 20.5 16.9 15.2 6.46.8 3.1 57.0 47.4 57.5 8.1 0.0 9.4 5.5 16.0 10.3 2.82.8 2.9 29.3 32.7 36.0 8.3 2.3 Other
3.3 0.1 7.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 4.9 8.0 1.0 0.9 3.5 3.56.5 2.9 -62.1 -56.3 -63.6 7.7 0.0 6.0 104.3 77.6 80.0 0.15.3 2.0 97.0 95.9 108.5 2.6 2.9 3.9 - 0.7 1.8 3.0 0.99.0 4.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.5 3.33.5 6.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 -2.4 6.85.1 4.9 23.2 23.5 23.3 1.5 -4.0 6.91.1 5.5 7.4 9.1 8.9 0.4 7.3 3.08.5 2.4 0.8 -9.8 -1.9 0.4 3.0 2.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
-4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
3.7 5.0
Level
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Imp Cover (mths)
REER
7.3Real GDP (%)REER4
External
80
8.9
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.4
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.5-2.26.6
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real Rate
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
4.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.1
3.2
3.5
2018f2.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
Macro Road Sign
11
Turkey
Turkish Lira (TRY)
While Turkey is one of the economically shakiest among the top 10, its valuation looks cheap, nominal rates are high and, unlike many of the illiquid managed currencies so far discussed, it has high upside potential. While the economics suggest some REER discount is justified, it is clear that the bulk of it is owing to Turkey’s high political risk. Turkey’s REER is 23% below its long term average and USDTRY has lagged the liquid EM benchmark by 15% over the last year. Despite rallying 3% in December, we see potential for up to a further 12% of appreciation while earning yields of 12.5%. Of course, this is predicated on the market repricing political risk and becoming more comfortable with the tetchy relationship with the US. Nonetheless, we think this will be the likely outcome in ensuing months
External1. 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.6 5.1 6.6 -3.7 -3.8 -4.8 4.2 5.4 7.1 - 1.0 - 1.1 -2.0 5.23.5 6.8 -5.6 -4.7 -5.8 2.8 1.0 6.6 20.7 21.3 21.1 7.4
10.0 2.7 2.8 1.8 2.1 8.6 6.6 6.7 21.7 22.4 23.2 4.83.3 9.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.3 10.0 2.2 3.9 2.3 1.9 1.8 0.82.7 5.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.9 6.6 8.0 1.3 0.8 -0.2 9.5
5.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
7.4 6.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 7.8 3.0 5.9 17.9 14.4 15.9 2.59.9 6.6 -3.2 0.5 1.4 7.1 5.5 4.7 17.1 18.3 17.7 5.75.8 7.0 -2.3 -2.7 -3.9 5.3 5.2 9.0 7.7 7.8 10.6 9.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.4 9.7 5.3 4.3 15.2 9.96.7 2.8 205.8 196.1 208.2 2.5 3.3 2.2 8.9 10.2 12.4 3.38.4 0.2 23.4 22.0 25.1 0.0 2.3 Other
9.8 6.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 7.9 3.2 6.5 6.0 3.3 5.5 5.66.0 3.0 -237.9 -228.7 -247.5 3.5 2.2 2.2 93.2 85.2 78.5 0.10.7 0.2 104.8 110.2 118.1 0.0 3.8 5.6 1.2 2.4 1.9 5.53.2 8.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 5.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 5.5 4.67.9 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 -2.0 5.95.0 6.8 92.6 92.5 97.9 8.1 -4.8 4.24.9 5.3 6.0 6.0 5.9 2.4 10.6 7.72.1 6.3 -2.0 12.8 6.4 5.9 1.9 4.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
-4.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
3.0 5.0
Level
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Imp Cover (mths)
REER
10.6Real GDP (%)REER4
External
78.5
5.9
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
5.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.3-4.79.4
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real Rate
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
3.0
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.3
5.8
4.8
2018f4.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
Macro Road Sign
12
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijani Manat (AZN)
Despite rallying by 12% from this year’s high, AZN remains 10% above the devaluation level from the end of 2015. This year’s rally has coincided with a sharp 7.50% swing in the current account from deficit to a healthy 3.9% surplus. While the current account may slow next year, it is still expected to maintain its surplus. Moreover, net FDI remains in double digits and the REER valuation is still 23% below its long term average. CPI peaked at 14% in the beginning of the year and is expected to reach 6% in 2018, allowing some relief to the REER and possible retracement back towards the 2015 post devaluation level. While authorities appear to be resisting further appreciation at the moment, they have also shown increased appetite for volatility since 2015 and our outlook is for measured appreciation over 2018. Rates of 4% are not overwhelming but still offer reasonable carry with the expectation of currency appreciation.
External1. Domestic2.Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.8 6.7 1.1 -0.4 -3.6 3.9 9.0 4.4 6.5 - 0.5 - 0.4 -0.7 8.54.9 1.8 11.0 11.1 16.6 8.8 9.1 8.6 32.2 29.0 26.0 8.25.8 1.7 -8.0 -8.3 -7.1 8.0 0.5 1.4 32.7 29.4 26.7 2.19.1 3.4 -3.8 -6.5 -5.7 3.1 5.0 5.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.77.0 5.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 7.9 4.5 6.5 - 0.4 - 0.3 -0.6 8.7
8.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.3 7.5 8.0 12.6 11.0 0.9 1.6 3.7 37.1 7.5 -2.0 1.38.7 5.5 -18.5 -12.4 -11.6 3.4 9.9 3.8 - 50.6 34.1 18.3 4.14.1 1.6 7.5 9.0 14.9 8.6 8.6 5.4 4.1 12.6 13.4 8.2
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 9.2 7.2 - 36.7 14.5 38.0 9.06.6 3.5 22.5 19.1 22.0 8.8 0.1 9.5 3.3 11.1 4.5 5.60.4 4.7 37.8 46.5 46.9 7.4 2.3 Other
8.2 10.0 1.4 5.6 3.7 4.5 7.0 2.1 6.7 1.1 - 3.1 -1.0 1.87.6 5.2 -22.7 -20.5 -20.3 5.2 0.0 5.2 107.1 76.9 77.5 0.4
5.5 9.4 - 0.9 - 1.5 -8.9 9.89.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 9.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) -1.0 3.84.2 2.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 -0.7 9.24.8 3.1 20.9 20.5 16.3 5.7 3.9 8.74.9 2.1 5.1 5.2 6.5 6.6 13.4 4.40.6 6.0 -13.9 -6.2 -7.5 0.3 -8.9 5.4
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
3.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
-1.6 5.0
Level
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Imp Cover (mths)
REER
13.4Real GDP (%)REER4
External
77.5
6.5
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
-1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.7
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.01.96.1
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real Rate
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
1.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum8.3
6.5
6.2
2018f1.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
Macro Road Sign
13
Uzbekistan
Uzbek Sum (UZS)
With a population of 31 million, Uzbekistan is the most populous of the caucus countries. September’s large (~100%) devaluation and the ongoing market reform efforts is big news for the region and we expect robust inflows into Uzbekistan as the country gradually opens up. The current account and net FDI both recorded surpluses in 2017 and we expect momentum to increase. This should create strong appreciatory pressure on UZS. While authorities are likely to resist this, the outlook for the UZS is stable with a not insignificant chance of minor appreciation. Importantly, we judge depreciation as highly unlikely. Indeed, inflation should peak around 14% next year and authorities will not want to stoke further inflationary fears by needlessly signalling further currency depreciation. The refinancing rate has been adjusted to 14% but onshore access remains difficult. Despite only offering mid-single digits, NDFs still remain attractive in light of stable and low volatility currency expectations.
Macro Road Sign
14
1. External Domestic2.Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.1 -0.2 1.2 7.7 5.4 3.8 0.2 0.1 0.3 5.83.0 5.6 -0.7 0.4 0.1 7.6 5.1 5.0 32.6 32.5 32.5 4.25.3 5.6 -3.9 -4.1 -4.4 4.7 5.0 4.8 32.4 32.4 32.2 5.9
0.9 0.7 0.8 1.56.4 1.3 3.5 2.9 4.8 5.2
5.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.0 1.2 1.6 2.3 3.6 1.2 5.9 6.4 10.0 14.0 20.0 3.34.1 0.5 -1.3 -1.4 -2.0 2.6 7.3 8.5 20.0 24.0 30.0 3.64.1 2.7 1.4 2.3 4.8 5.0 8.3 1.8 10.0 12.0 10.0 0.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
5.8 3.8 15.2 14.8 15.3 2.1 5.0 0.0 9.0 9.0 14.0 1.55.8 4.9 20.7 19.9 20.0 9.1 2.3 Other
0.8 7.4 0.3 4.0 3.0 5.6 6.1 0.0 7.6 8.0 3.5 4.5 0.17.2 4.6 -17.7 -16.8 -16.9 2.3 4.3 0.0 111.9 111.0 68.2 0.0
- 1.0 - 3.0 4.0 0.34.1 4.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.5 0.59.9 0.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 6.1 0.3 2.60.5 7.7 4.4 2.5 3.4 8.2 1.2 6.75.8 0.7 10.4 10.2 11.7 2.7 10.0 9.44.1 1.6 -4.3 -4.0 -2.2 5.2 4.0 4.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
1.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
0.1
Level
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Imp Cover (mths)
REER
10Real GDP (%)REER4
External
68.2
11.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
0.3
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
0.61.6
13.9
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real Rate
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
9.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.5
3.2
2018f4.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0.04.8 3.6
4.5
5.0
Danger Moderate
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
Vuln. Quality
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 4
5 5
6 6
7 7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank 1Highest growth level score to lowest growth level score
7.7
0.3CA (% GDP)
-3.1
Consolidated Road Signs
E Asia
5.4
Real GDP (%)5.5
9.6 7.6
CA (% GDP)-2.3
1.0
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.7
1.9
0.3
Imp. Cover (mths)8.1
0.1
2.1
2.6
92.3
3.0
REER
Safe
96.5
2.4
Traffic Light
Level LevelEXTERNAL
EM
7.9 8.6 7.5
Gulf EM
2.0 3.3
9.9
REER REER
9.5
116.7 106.8
3.8
0.5 0.8 0.3 1.7
10.0 8.6
1.6
6.7
9.6 3.2
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
5.2
0.6
8.2 9.3
Risk Analysis (Time Series / Median)
CIS
2.8
CA (% GDP)
Africa
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Real GDP (%)2.8
Real GDP (%)
2.2 3.7
-5.0-3.6 0.5-1.8 -3.3
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
3.8
CPI (%, ave)7.1
3.8 2.5
-5.5
4.2 6.0Imp. Cover (mths)Imp. Cover (mths)
REER
-4.7
6.9
5.4CPI (%, ave)
108.9 99.8
9.6 4.0
1.3
1.1
Real GDP (%) Real GDP (%)
5.8
Imp. Cover (mths)
3.7
CPI (%, ave)7.7 6.05.5
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
98.2
S Asia LatAm
Real GDP (%)4.1
Imp. Cover (mths) CPI (%, ave)CPI (%, ave)
Real GDP (%) Real GDP (%)
5.9
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
1.7
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
2.0
Imp. Cover (mths) CPI (%, ave)3.5
3.6
LatAm3.3 -6.5 -3.2 CIS
Imp. Cover (mths)
REER
CURRENCY
5.8
-2.2
Level Level
S AsiaGulf
2.39.3
CA (% GDP)
REER
CISGulf
Africa
GROWTH1
EM
CISCEMEALatAmAfricaE Asia
EM
S AsiaCEMEAE AsiaLatAm
CEMEAE AsiaLatAmGulf
S Asia
EM
CISAfrica
GulfCEMEAAfrica
S AsiaE Asia
DOMESTIC
3.4
CPI (%, ave)2.6
1.1
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)-1.2
REER
CEMEA
7.5
Imp. Cover (mths) CPI (%, ave)5.9 2.2
REER105.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
15
Africa
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1
2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum12015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)0.6 2.0 5.2 -6.7 -5.2 -5.5 5.2 7.8 1.3 4.9- 5.4- -4.7 8.2
7.8 1.3 -10.9 -11.2 -8.7 1.7 9.2 7.2 21.2 20.0 19.5 10.0 7.6 3.0 -2.4 -2.0 -2.1 8.1 3.3 2.9 27.6 27.1 26.5 5.4 2.5 5.0 -2.1 -2.3 -2.7 9.9 6.3 7.4 2.0 2.0 2.2 9.9 4.5 4.9 5.4 4.1 4.8 8.3 5.6 4.3 2.9- 3.1- -2.9 7.9
8.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.1 Price Indicators (%)
7.4 4.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 8.2 7.0 0.6 15.8 18.6 10.5 0.2 2.6 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 3.0 1.9 12.4 10.9 8.7 0.4
4.4 4.1 -3.0 -2.7 -2.4 6.7 7.6 3.0 4.8 6.3 5.2 2.2 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.6 6.0 3.1- 1.6 4.5 5.1
4.8 3.3 9.8 9.8 10.5 2.4 5.3 2.7 5.9 5.8 6.5 4.6
3.3 8.8 31.3 32.6 29.5 9.8 3. Other
2.2 CPI 0.6 8.4 3.7 4.6 4.0 4.3 2.0 5.2 4.7 3.7 3.8 0.6 7.1 4.3 -12.6 -11.8 -12.1 2.9 2.5 5.0 100.2 98.5 98.5 1.7 2.0 4.9 102.4 103.8 103.9 0.9 7.6 2.3 1.5 0.5 1.6 2.8
1.4 8.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 3. Forecasts 2017e Score1.7 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.8 0.0
10.0 6.9 2.2 2.8 2.9 10.0 -4.7 4.49.6 6.3 21.7 30.0 31.6 9.9 -5.5 0.2
4.5 4.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 6.9 5.2 2.56.5 2.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 2.0 1.6 4.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank # of 8Africa EM* CIS E Asia S Asia CEMEA 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 32.3 66.3 41.1 309.7 246.6 77.1 81 3.8 3.7 2.8 5.5 6.7 4.1 30 24.3 16.9 9.1 41.3 164.7 7.1 30 3.9 12.9 9.8 15.0 5.5 29.1 82 0.9 1.9 2.0 2.7 4.2 2.3 4-1 11.1 6.1 5.6 3.5 5.3 7.2 2
1.2 GDP by Activity %-1 72.0 63.7 61.1 54.0 67.9 58.3 21 14.9 14.6 17.1 12.3 11.7 18.7 42 21.0 22.2 24.0 25.3 27.5 20.6 40 0.6 0.7 1.7 0.6 3.1 0.3 50 -8.5 -1.3 0.1 1.5 -6.5 2.7 8
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 18.0 8.3 11.4 9.6 16.7 3.4 11 26.2 30.4 32.3 35.8 28.7 30.3 6-1 54.3 58.7 54.4 53.2 56.3 66.2 7
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)-2 24.9 25.3 66.2 18.2 12.9 39.5 70 28.0 56.4 35.5 136.4 62.2 69.2 80 40.4 47.4 28.8 129.7 55.8 59.4 70 4.0 3.9 6.5 1.9 25.3 1.5 4
1 7.7 7.1 22.3 8.7 0.2 6.6 21.4 Openness (% GDP)
0 Exports G&S 29.5 36.6 38.3 65.8 15.5 58.7 6Rank # of 8 1 Imports G&S 35.1 39.9 48.3 54.4 21.1 58.1 4
∆Rank EM 1 63.8 74.4 85.2 123.1 39.4 115.0 51.1 Aggregate
00
1.2 Institutions-140
1.3 Infrastructure01
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation Ave % Growth EM* Median Rank # of 80 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 0 24.3 31.1 2.8 16.0 1.6 30 0 44.4 48.8 1.0 57.9 0.7 7
1.5 Health 0 54.6 57.2 0.5 65.6 -0.1 80 1 5.8 5.9 0.1 9.6 3.4 80 0 7.4 8.8 1.9 23.0 5.4 8
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank *EM median is the median of all EM countries and not the median of all regional medians2% C/A Receipts
-5.5
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
CPI5
Demographic Forecasts
Population (mm)
Dependancy Ratio (retired)Retired/Child Ratio
18.52027
12.935.4
2017-27 2017
8
8
3
7
61.8 7
29.2 43.5 32.9
Urban Pop. (% total)
2011
3.66.1
33.05.95.3
3.86.4
5.047.90.2
Total Trade
563
76
623
REER Imp. Cover (mths)Med 4.2 / Score 6.9
CA (% GDP)Med -5.5 / Score 5.2
EM*
4.16.3
2011
85
Med 98.5 / Score 1.7
Global Comp. Index (1-7) 3.7 8
2016 2016
5Ease of Business Index (1-10) 6.1
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Macro Risk scoresMacro Road Sign: Risk Time series
Growth
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real GDP (%) Current Acc. Fiscal Bal.3.8 Level Trade Bal. Budget Rev.
-4.7 Net FDI Dom. Cred GrowthNet Port. Flows M2 Growth
Level Exports G&S
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP) Moderate
Low Services Bal. Budget exp.Income Bal. Debt Interest
Qaility Transfers Bal. Primary bal.
Imp. Cover (mths) Undervalued Remittances3
Net Ext. Flow2 CPI5
Currency PPICA Credits MM Rate
Real GDP (%)
Moderate Imports G&SREER 98.5 Broad Money
4.2 5.2 CA DebitsVulnerability Terms of Trade4
REER4
Real Rate
2018f momentumReal GDP (%) 1.5 0.3
-3.6Short term debt
Imp Cover (mths)External Moderate Domestic Moderate Capital Flight Real Rate6 1.4 4.3
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
Real GDP (%)
Med 3.8 / Score 0.6
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Med -4.7 / Score 8.2
CPI
Med 5.18 / Score 2.2
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high pressure). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Nominal GDP $Real GDP (%) 2.0
Gulf
9.4
Economic Structure
Median
0.5 0.1
67.3 54.913.6 19.2
7.6 4.3
5
4.9
2.9
50.0 160.6
-4.1 2.4
7.1 1.1
8
176
58
26.0
7.5
Competitiveness
41.8 96.94.1
74
35.1
24.5 46.4 33.7 6
M2 StockRemittances2
Tourism2
Corruption Perc. Index (1-100) 34.0 37.05.85.7
3.5 7Getting Electricity (1-10) 6.4 7
4.06.9
Infrastructure Index (1-7)
Contract Enforcement (1-10) 5.5Protecting minority investors 5.7
Patents (applications/mm pop) 0.3 8Internet users (% Pop) 93.3 7Education (ave yrs for pop>25) 5.2 78.3
113.80.8
78
7
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000) 43.9 1Life expectancy (yrs) 61.5 8
14.554.765.8
73.6 81
66.6
3
84
861
156
56
76.7
2.317.2
1031.1
3.0
Working Age Pop. (% total) 64.6
62.2 52.3 71.5
GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
44.116.223.8
13.7 54.3 51.21.1 -0.3 0.8
20.7 23.2
56.1 85.9
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
27.785.684.12.6
0.928.1 45.1
24.5
AgricultureIndustryServices
Net DebtDom Credit Stock
0.6
-3.4 0.5
5.1 4.7
Private Con.
2.613.9Population
∆Rank1 LatAm G10 2017
75.2 211.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Region Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
- 5.0 10.0
AfricaCIS
E AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
AfricaCIS
E AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
AfricaCIS
E AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
0.0 5.0 10.0
AfricaCIS
E AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
AfricaCIS
E AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
AfricaCIS
E AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
16
Algeria
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.5 5.0 4.3 -16.4 -16.5 -15.1 9.3 3.5 3.3 15.3- 12.9- -10.1 8.3 6.0 3.9 -10.9 -12.7 -10.8 9.3 6.4 3.5 30.6 29.0 30.8 8.9 5.3 4.2 -4.5 -4.6 -4.4 5.6 1.9 4.2 45.8 41.9 40.9 6.1 0.3 7.0 -2.7 -1.0 -1.4 4.6 8.3 10.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 9.0 3.5 7.4 1.7 1.8 1.6 4.3 3.5 3.1 15.0- 12.6- -9.5 8.2
8.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.0 6.6 -0.4 0.9 0.7 6.9 3.7 4.5 115.4 43.2 16.6 4.4 5.3 2.5 0.3 0.8 -4.3 0.1
4.3 4.4 -16.9 -15.5 -14.4 9.3 7.2 3.4 4.8 6.4 5.2 5.4 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.1 4.2 44.1 38.9 42.3 9.5 0.3 8.5 0.6 2.8 1.4 7.0 6.9 4.5 23.2 21.0 21.6 9.5 2.3 Other
5.4 1.7 7.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 5.7 0.1 3.9 4.1 2.0 0.5 8.2 4.0 -71.6 -65.4 -67.3 3.7 3.1 4.2 99.9 98.5 97.9 2.1 8.3 4.9 87.8 72.4 72.9 9.6 4.4 5.2 4.2- 3.6- -3.8 6.4 3.6 4.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 8.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
2.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.0 1.69.9 9.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 10.0 -10.1 7.49.8 10.0 1.3 1.7 2.8 10.0 -15.1 8.59.3 9.4 27.3 22.9 18.6 10.0 5.2 7.45.1 0.4 -6.3 -6.5 4.0 0.4 -3.8 7.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1.66 -4 165.9 32.3 69 92
0 2.0 3.8 21 170 41.7 24.3 73 71-1 15.5 3.9 57 8812 0.9 0.9 11 50-3 12.1 11.1 90 60
9.17 1.2 GDP by Activity %-10.1 3 44.2 72.0 4 4
Med -4.7 38 20.7 14.9 50 8321 41.0 21.0 75 960 7.7 0.6 96 95
-71 -13.6 -8.5 88 251.3 GDP by Sector %
5.41 20 12.9 18.0 41 30 18.6 5.2 -17 36.5 26.2 96 91
Med 5.2 17 50.5 54.3 5 261.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
4.58 1 -53.8 24.9 0 054 60.7 28.0 1 83-3 72.0 40.4 79 8811 0.7 4.0 7 22
7.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
-38 21.6 29.5 64 33Rank % 21 35.1 35.1 20 50
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -8 56.7 63.8 43 331.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-6 4.0 4.0 4.1 35 Exports (2016)-10 5.1 4.8 6.3 11 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Spain 16.9 0.0 2 34.0 34.0 37.0 38 #2 Partner Italy 15.9 0.0 9 5.3 5.5 5.8 42 #3 Partner France 11.2 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-2 3.0 3.3 5.7 4
1.3 Infrastructure-13 3.8 3.4 4.0 27-1 6.2 6.1 6.9 33
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 7.2 7.6 8.3 47 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
-11 13.5 18.1 44.4 26 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-11 0.2 0.2 0.8 15 1 41.7 47.4 1.5 16.0 73
1.5 Health 3 71.9 76.4 0.6 57.9 72-16 72.4 71.0 73.6 39 10 64.5 64.7 0.0 65.6 51-14 36.0 21.6 14.5 60 1 9.6 13.0 3.5 9.6 51
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 1 21.2 31.3 4.7 23.0 47
-15.1
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 46
2017-27
69
2017
-5.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
7729
46584
5.217.30.3
43.9
33
7
41
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
34
48
38
96643327
74
3.76.1
34.0
14
5.55.7
3.56.4
41
21
36
4567
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
5.2
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
6521
External
97.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
18.6
DomesticHigh Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityHigh
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-10.1
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-9.5-13.76.4
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-15.1
2
REER97.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 18.6
90979615
78
1
Region
73
Real Rate
562487
63.7
-1.3
30.4
4050
72
Life expectancy (yrs) 56 8661.5
7
62
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
34
58.7
56.447.4
24Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
23
577618Remittances2
Imports G&S 4236.6
6.8
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.7
4.6
4.3
2018f2.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
17
Angola
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
2.7 2.5 5.6 -10.0 -3.2 -4.9 8.3 5.6 5.4 5.2- 6.2- -7.0 8.9 3.9 5.9 12.2 15.2 12.7 9.4 6.3 4.9 32.3 29.9 30.1 9.4 1.7 3.2 -15.6 -12.4 -11.2 0.1 3.2 6.2 37.5 36.1 37.0 1.5 4.6 3.6 -5.8 -5.5 -4.5 0.6 3.5 5.0 1.4 1.3 1.3 6.0 2.1 10.0 -0.8 -0.5 -1.9 9.6 5.5 5.4 3.9- 4.9- -5.7 8.7
8.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
8.8 5.4 8.0 1.4 0.9 2.7 5.1 5.2 2.3- 1.7 12.9 3.9 0.1 4.9 1.5 0.0 0.0 6.6 5.4 8.2 11.8 14.2 34.7 6.3 4.9 6.2 -2.0 -1.8 -4.0 8.1 10.0 2.5 10.3 32.4 27.6 9.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.5 2.9 34.6 28.7 37.2 8.7 0.9 4.0 7.7 14.8 16.2 1.7 5.4 6.6 33.9 33.0 29.5 9.7 2.3 Other
9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 2.6 7.3 3.0 0.0 2.7 2.7 8.7 1.8 -44.9 -31.7 -43.1 7.5 3.4 10.0 109.5 107.5 133.8 10.0 0.1 9.4 102.5 147.9 110.5 3.6 10.0 1.6 2.6- 17.5- -11.4 9.2 2.8 6.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
10.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.7 2.82.4 9.9 2.0 1.7 2.8 10.0 -7.0 8.05.0 5.3 0.7 0.6 1.2 2.8 -4.9 7.40.0 10.0 7.5 11.1 6.8 5.4 27.6 6.98.8 7.7 -1.6 -5.7 -8.2 9.8 -11.4 4.2
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth2.91 4 122.9 32.3 57 88
-67 2.7 3.8 99 294 29.8 24.3 60 63-5 6.6 3.9 32 67
-85 -1.0 0.9 98 1711.1
7.92 1.2 GDP by Activity %-7 75 78.5 72.0 9 83
Med -4.7 -17 15.9 14.9 76 58-9 10.2 21.0 9 0
0.1 0.6 26-58 -4.7 -8.5 94 63
1.3 GDP by Sector %9.58 18.0 6.8 27.6 26.2
Med 5.2 54.31.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
10 21 20.4 24.9 14 38-5 13.1 28.0 13 1315 42.9 40.4 25 63-7 0.0 4.0 8 0
7.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
-51 29.5 29.5 92 46Rank % -23 34.3 35.1 65 46
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -37 63.8 63.8 79 501.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
2.9 4.1 Exports (2016)-2 4.3 3.8 6.3 2 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 49.0 0.0 -5 22.0 18.0 37.0 1 #2 Partner United States 10.1 0.0 1 2.5 2.6 5.8 2 #3 Partner India 7.1 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-3 5.3 5.5 5.7 45
1.3 Infrastructure2.2 4.0
-14 5.6 4.1 6.9 51.4 Human Capital and Innovation
-3 4.5 4.7 8.3 15 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM3.3 44.4 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270.0 0.8 6 29.8 40.9 3.7 16.0 71
1.5 Health 1 45.6 52.5 1.5 57.9 3147.0 73.6 -1 50.8 53.1 0.5 65.6 1
130.3 14.5 -2 4.7 5.3 1.3 9.6 9Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 2 5.1 6.5 2.6 23.0 3
-4.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 1
2017-27
30
2017
-3.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
4
00
83
5.217.30.3
43.9
1
48
4
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
20
18
11
39
0
100
3.76.1
34.05.55.7
3.56.4
4
4
6
8
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
27.6
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
6130
External
133.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
6.8
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-7
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-6.1-3.919.1
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-4.9
2.7
REER133.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 6.8
580
1534
36
Region
65
Real Rate
2711
63.7
-1.3
30.4
211
65
Life expectancy (yrs) 661.5
86
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
41
58.7
56.447.4
40Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
7411Remittances2
Imports G&S 4136.6
1.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.7
4.5
4.6
2018f2.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
18
Botswana
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
4.5 2.8 3.3 8.3 12.8 16.1 0.7 2.2 7.3 4.8- 0.7 -3.8 6.4 1.9 2.6 -4.5 3.2 9.0 0.5 3.2 6.2 32.5 33.8 32.9 9.4 1.5 9.7 3.1 3.8 2.6 1.6 2.5 7.3 37.3 33.2 36.8 3.4 5.1 6.2 -1.6 -1.6 -2.3 4.0 0.4 7.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 4.8 9.7 6.0 11.3 7.3 6.7 9.8 2.2 7.3 4.2- 1.1 -3.3 6.4
6.4 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.8 1.0 3.4 -3.7 1.4 7.0 5.0 4.7 49.8 51.1 6.8 3.5 8.8 3.7 -6.8 0.1 -2.0 5.3 1.7 4.7 19.9 5.4 4.4 2.2 6.2 1.7 11.7 9.1 17.5 1.1 4.6 5.2 3.1 2.8 2.9 0.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.1 2.0 9.6 9.2 10.5 2.1 6.2 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.0 9.3 3.4 6.6 52.2 55.4 52.1 4.3 2.3 Other
0.8 0.0 5.1 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 7.7 4.8 1.7- 4.3 3.8 4.5 8.8 3.2 -8.4 -7.3 -7.7 6.0 3.4 6.9 104.3 99.8 105.2 7.1 0.1 6.6 102.6 117.0 113.7 0.3 5.4 6.3 2.9 2.7 2.1 6.5 0.1 2.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
7.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.8 4.86.0 7.4 0.9 0.9 1.0 9.4 -3.8 6.15.4 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1 7.3 16.1 0.92.8 5.2 11.5 12.9 12.8 6.4 2.9 2.72.4 8.8 -2.2 -1.7 -2.6 9.7 2.1 9.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth5 4 17.0 32.3 14 33
-13 3.8 3.8 65 501 2.3 24.3 8 132 17.7 3.9 59 92
0.911.1
2.92 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.8 0 49.8 72.0 13 13
Med -4.7 -16 18.5 14.9 94 716 29.1 21.0 77 79
-89 -6.9 0.6 93 528 9.5 -8.5 63 92
1.3 GDP by Sector %2.91 -3 1.7 18.0 10 0 12.8 2.9 -41 29.2 26.2 86 65
Med 5.2 39 69.1 54.3 47 911.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
7.91 3 -31.0 24.9 1 48 16.8 28.0 0 17
-31 42.2 40.4 72 580 0.9 4.0 21 26
52 9.2 7.7 6 601.4 Openness (% GDP)
15 52.1 29.5 61 100Rank % -15 38.8 35.1 64 63
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -1 90.9 63.8 66 831.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
3 4.1 4.2 4.1 52 Exports (2016)-10 6.7 6.6 6.3 58 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Belgium 29.2 0.0 -5 65.0 60.0 37.0 86 #2 Partner United Arab Emirates 17.9 0.0
-37 6.4 5.1 5.8 27 #3 Partner India 13.8 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-23 6.0 5.5 5.7 45
1.3 Infrastructure-25 4.7 3.8 4.0 43-25 7.3 5.9 6.9 29
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 8.5 8.9 8.3 58 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM7 6.2 18.5 44.4 27 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
30 0.0 0.3 0.8 31 -1 2.3 2.7 1.7 16.0 91.5 Health -5 58.0 61.1 0.5 57.9 46-15 54.2 47.4 73.6 0 29 64.7 66.5 0.3 65.6 7115 26.0 36.3 14.5 76 1 6.1 7.8 2.9 9.6 28
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -3 12.5 18.4 4.7 23.0 24
16.1
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 28
2017-27
51
2017
0.6 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
9188
1004283
5.217.30.3
43.9
65
68
69
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
55
59
20
10068620
61
3.76.1
34.0
27
5.55.7
3.56.4
49
68
91
6854
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.9
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
1851
External
105.2
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
12.8
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.8
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.316.24.4
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
16.1
3.8
REER105.2
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 12.8
77831
92
44
4
Region
9
Real Rate
61
63.7
-1.3
30.4
4127
10
Life expectancy (yrs) 16 061.5
13
6
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
65
58.7
56.447.4
77Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
87
8402259
Remittances2
Imports G&S 4836.6
8.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.0
5.4
4.9
2018f3.7
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
19
Cameroon
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
4.4 3.6 5.3 -4.1 -3.6 -3.7 6.3 9.8 2.1 2.8- 6.2- -4.8 8.3 2.9 5.3 -1.3 -0.7 -0.8 6.0 9.9 2.9 17.9 16.0 16.5 9.1 4.0 4.2 -2.4 -2.0 -1.7 3.0 8.5 2.8 20.7 22.1 21.3 7.4 8.1 5.6 -1.5 -2.1 -2.2 8.4 4.4 5.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 6.4
8.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.0 6.0 2.2 2.3 1.8 5.1 9.4 1.1 1.0- 39.5 4.7 2.8 5.2 7.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 8.0 3.2 4.6 9.1 5.1 4.2 1.9 3.8 6.2 -1.9 -1.3 -1.9 6.6 2.2 4.4 2.7 0.9 0.6 0.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.5 3.0 7.5 7.0 7.7 4.7 8.4 0.0 2.5 2.2 3.2 7.2 6.4 4.3 19.5 18.5 19.0 6.4 2.3 Other
0.8 3.8 6.2 3.3 3.4 3.3 1.1 0.3 2.6 5.8 4.5 4.0 4.4 6.7 2.8 -8.7 -8.1 -8.9 3.7 7.4 7.1 97.1 99.1 100.9 6.3 2.1 3.6 103.9 107.4 108.8 1.1 2.6 2.7 0.2- 1.4 2.6 1.7 0.2 5.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.8 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
6.3 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.0 5.410.0 5.4 1.8 2.9 3.0 10.0 -4.8 8.07.2 3.3 7.5 12.1 10.1 8.6 -3.7 6.88.8 5.5 5.5 3.9 3.7 9.3 0.6 1.68.4 0.0 -1.2 -1.7 -0.2 5.4 2.6 2.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth5.83 -1 32.3 32.3 31 50
26 4.0 3.8 29 584 24.1 24.3 55 46-2 3.4 3.9 16 46
0.911.1
5.84 1.2 GDP by Activity %-4.8 -4 71.4 72.0 76 46
Med -4.7 -2 12.2 14.9 32 2515 20.3 21.0 16 4613 0.5 0.6 27 47-12 -4.4 -8.5 49 67
1.3 GDP by Sector %0.41 6 23.1 18.0 81 70 3.7 0.6 -5 28.0 26.2 40 57
Med 5.2 -7 48.9 54.3 26 221.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
6.66 10 18.2 24.9 18 255 19.9 28.0 8 33-5 21.9 40.4 24 290 3.3 4.0 42 39
7.7 11
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-4 19.0 29.5 19 21
Rank % 1 23.4 35.1 18 17∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -2 42.4 63.8 17 171.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-5 3.6 3.7 4.1 16 Exports (2016)-5 4.8 4.5 6.3 7 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Netherlands 10.2 0.0 -3 26.0 26.0 37.0 9 #2 Partner Italy 10.2 0.0 -1 4.2 4.2 5.8 15 #3 Partner India 10.1 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts0 3.7 4.2 5.7 17
1.3 Infrastructure-2 3.1 3.1 4.0 14
-25 8.0 7.0 6.9 541.4 Human Capital and Innovation
0 5.6 5.9 8.3 25 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-1 3.8 11.0 44.4 11 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-6 0.2 0.3 0.8 25 0 24.1 30.8 2.8 16.0 60
1.5 Health -2 55.5 60.6 0.9 57.9 44-5 51.1 55.0 73.6 5 3 54.1 57.2 0.6 65.6 130 82.3 60.8 14.5 94 -7 5.8 5.7 -0.3 9.6 13
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -1 7.4 8.2 1.0 23.0 12
-3.7
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 13
2017-27
46
2017
2.2 5.1
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
4113
132133
5.217.30.3
43.9
16
17
16
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
80
25
12
57324831
94
3.76.1
34.0
82
5.55.7
3.56.4
21
12
12
2383
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.6
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
3056
External
100.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3.7
DomesticHigh Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-4.8
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.1-4.01.0
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-3.7
4
REER100.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3.7
30314036
35
29
Region
59
Real Rate
14
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1020
60
Life expectancy (yrs) 10 1861.5
72
87
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
15
58.7
56.447.4
15Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
19
141942Remittances2
Imports G&S 1936.6
6.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.8
5.6
6.1
2018f4.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
20
Congo (Democratic Republic)
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.3 4.7 5.4 -4.1 -3.8 -4.2 4.4 6.1 4.8 0.1 1.3- -1.0 7.5 4.8 3.7 -0.8 -0.7 0.4 5.7 7.4 4.4 15.0 12.1 12.8 8.5 3.8 5.2 -5.6 -4.8 -4.9 0.7 2.3 5.6 14.9 13.4 13.7 2.2 3.6 1.7 -8.6 -6.9 -2.9 0.1 7.9 6.4 5.3 3.8 3.1 9.8
7.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.3 4.7 3.2 2.7 3.1 7.8 5.1 4.9 20.1 35.7 22.2 3.7 8.8 5.2 7.9 20.3 21.0 3.0
5.1 5.0 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 6.8 5.4 9.9 0.7 2.9 49.6 10.0 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.7 3.7 13.0 12.0 12.7 3.1 5.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 20.0 5.5 7.2 3.0 31.3 25.3 29.5 8.2 2.3 Other
10.0 9.8 4.7 1.1 0.1 0.2 6.8 0.1 5.0 6.9 2.2 2.2 0.3 6.7 3.7 -14.5 -13.3 -14.2 3.3 3.5 0.4 108.8 104.0 81.3 0.6
5.2 7.7 1.3 0.9- -29.6 9.6 1.4 6.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.6 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.2 1.16.6 5.6 3.8 7.3 8.4 7.1 -1.0 7.25.2 5.4 15.0 32.8 64.8 3.8 -4.2 4.17.5 6.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 8.7 49.6 8.5
-29.6 7.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth2.5 3 35.0 32.3 29 54
-35 2.2 3.8 63 253 81.3 24.3 83 880 0.8 3.9 0 0
0.911.1
0 1.2 GDP by Activity %-1 -10 76.9 72.0 93 71
Med -4.7 26 12.4 14.9 4 292 13.2 21.0 3 13
0.6 12
2 -2.5 -8.5 44 791.3 GDP by Sector %
10 1 20.8 18.0 83 57 0.5 49.6 -6 32.5 26.2 65 78
Med 5.2 -1 46.7 54.3 12 91.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
0.83 -66 12.8 24.9 90 13-4 9.8 28.0 11 80 11.8 40.4 7 4-6 0.2 4.0 12 9
7.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
-12 29.5 29.5 52 46Rank % -18 31.9 35.1 56 38
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -16 61.4 63.8 54 381.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4.1 Exports (2016)1 3.5 3.8 6.3 1 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 38.0 0.0 -2 21.0 21.0 37.0 2 #2 Partner South Korea 9.4 0.0 5 3.0 3.6 5.8 10 #3 Partner Belgium 5.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts8 2.3 3.7 5.7 11
1.3 Infrastructure4.0
-5 3.7 3.4 6.9 31.4 Human Capital and Innovation
8.3 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM44.4 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270.8 1 81.3 110.5 3.6 16.0 87
1.5 Health 2 43.5 48.8 1.2 57.9 2873.6 -1 50.7 53.0 0.4 65.6 014.5 -8 6.0 5.9 -0.1 9.6 14
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 1 6.5 7.1 0.9 23.0 6
-4.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 5
2017-27
26
2017
-11.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
0
41313
5.217.30.3
43.9
4
2
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
9
3.76.1
34.05.55.7
3.56.4
0
4
4
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
49.6
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
3226
External
81.3
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
0.5
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityHigh
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.8-4.831.0
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-4.2
2.2
REER81.3
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 0.5
315
46
59
22
Region
86
Real Rate
0
63.7
-1.3
30.4
122
86
Life expectancy (yrs) 61.5
82
84
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
38
58.7
56.447.4
40Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
11
676Remittances2
Imports G&S 3836.6
2.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.9
4.8
5.6
2018f2.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
21
Côte d'Ivoire
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
6.1 5.4 6.9 -0.5 -1.0 -3.8 9.3 8.4 9.5 2.1- 3.1- -4.7 9.9 5.7 7.2 9.7 8.7 5.6 9.6 6.5 6.6 20.1 19.3 18.4 5.8 1.7 4.2 -6.0 -5.6 -5.5 0.3 5.3 6.8 22.3 22.4 23.1 9.7 5.3 1.8 -3.1 -3.1 -2.8 0.9 5.2 5.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 3.0
9.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
7.6 2.7 1.5 1.3 1.4 5.2 3.2 6.1 19.7 14.8 17.4 6.2 5.4 5.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 5.0 2.7 6.5 18.2 11.0 15.1 5.1 5.5 6.9 1.0 0.3 -2.4 9.4 4.2 5.9 1.3 0.7 1.3 3.3
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.5 6.7 13.2 12.5 12.1 8.1 2.7 8.1 4.3 4.6 4.2 7.2 9.4 6.5 38.1 32.6 31.2 9.8 2.3 Other
3.3 2.0 2.0 2.9 3.2 3.4 0.3 4.7 3.3 9.2 8.8 6.4 6.1 6.5 2.7 -13.3 -12.9 -13.5 2.2 5.5 7.0 97.0 97.4 99.3 4.0 0.1 0.5 102.4 112.7 120.8 0.0 3.7 6.5 3.1 3.9 2.9 3.8 1.1 7.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
4.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 6.4 5.810.0 10.0 2.2 2.7 3.3 10.0 -4.7 9.25.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 -3.8 8.56.0 7.1 5.9 5.6 5.0 5.9 1.3 1.64.4 2.2 -2.1 -1.8 -0.7 3.6 2.9 2.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth8.33 3 38.7 32.3 32 58
59 6.4 3.8 24 834 24.3 24.3 56 500 3.9 3.9 17 50
0.911.1
5.42 1.2 GDP by Activity %-4.7 -13 63.3 72.0 60 29
Med -4.7 4 14.7 14.9 48 4648 22.5 21.0 2 58-5 0.3 0.6 36 32
-27 -0.8 -8.5 81 831.3 GDP by Sector %
1.25 0 17.0 18.0 78 39 5 1.3 21 29.7 26.2 26 74
Med 5.2 -11 53.2 54.3 43 481.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
6.25 -45 20.0 24.9 80 334 35.6 28.0 24 542 40.4 40.4 33 505 3.4 4.0 39 43
7.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
-16 31.2 29.5 63 58Rank % -9 32.0 35.1 48 42
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -16 63.2 63.8 56 461.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
23 3.3 3.9 4.1 32 Exports (2016)7 4.5 5.2 6.3 16 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Netherlands 12.6 0.0 13 29.0 34.0 37.0 38 #2 Partner United States 10.7 0.0 7 5.4 5.6 5.8 43 #3 Partner Belgium 7.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts3 3.3 4.0 5.7 14
1.3 Infrastructure22 3.9 4.5 4.0 7013 5.1 5.8 6.9 25
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-3 3.9 4.2 8.3 8 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM0 4.6 14.6 44.4 15 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 0.0 0.0 0.8 0 0 24.3 31.1 2.8 16.0 61
1.5 Health 2 55.5 61.5 1.1 57.9 49-19 57.4 50.8 73.6 2 -4 54.6 55.9 0.2 65.6 95 80.9 71.3 14.5 99 -3 5.4 5.5 0.3 9.6 11
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -1 6.9 7.6 0.9 23.0 7
-3.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 9
2017-27
47
2017
3.9 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
7342
466321
5.217.30.3
43.9
36
11
48
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
12
11
14
223600
93
3.76.1
34.0
95
5.55.7
3.56.4
8
9
24
9146
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.3
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
3584
External
99.3
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
6.4Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-4.7
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.2-2.90.3
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-3.8
6.4
REER99.3
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5
52513253
48
34
Region
60
Real Rate
17
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1314
61
Life expectancy (yrs) 22 961.5
47
78
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
40
58.7
56.447.4
46Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
32
283545Remittances2
Imports G&S 3936.6
3.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.1
3.2
4.4
2018f6.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
22
Egypt
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
4.8 9.7 0.8 -5.9 -8.7 -6.4 9.2 7.5 1.6 10.9- 12.1- -10.8 7.3 8.9 2.0 -13.2 -15.9 -14.1 8.2 9.9 2.5 22.0 18.1 19.5 9.1 8.1 3.0 2.8 1.9 2.4 9.0 0.9 5.4 33.0 30.2 30.4 1.4 5.7 9.8 -1.7 -1.8 -3.3 9.2 9.9 6.0 7.3 9.0 9.2 9.8 2.4 1.4 6.2 7.1 8.6 0.7 3.3 0.9 3.6- 3.1- -1.6 1.6
7.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
2.9 1.7 2.1 2.9 4.5 1.9 9.9 0.0 25.6 39.2 19.8 5.2 5.8 9.9 0.0 0.7 9.1 10.0 10.0 2.9 18.6 39.5 35.0 9.8 8.2 0.4 -3.8 -5.8 -1.9 6.7 8.1 10.0 10.4 13.8 26.0 10.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 8.2 9.8 3.1- 8.1 35.4 10.0 7.0 1.5 56.8 51.6 61.6 5.4 4.1 0.0 11.0 11.3 18.9 0.0 8.4 0.0 13.2 10.4 19.0 5.3 2.3 Other
10.0 5.2 6.6 32.3 32.1 30.8 1.3 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.8 6.0 3.0 -74.0 -71.7 -75.9 2.1 0.0 6.7 128.3 70.5 79.9 1.1 4.9 0.1 117.1 117.2 128.0 0.1 7.4 8.2 0.6 2.5- -7.1 9.4 2.6 10.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 6.1 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.2 7.00.1 0.1 15.9 11.4 5.4 1.8 -10.8 5.89.6 0.3 28.6 51.5 23.8 5.6 -6.4 4.61.4 0.4 2.7 4.2 6.7 1.4 26.0 6.57.4 0.5 3.8 0.6 8.8 0.0 -7.1 2.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6.25 -3 193.7 32.3 70 96
-14 4.2 3.8 73 630 93.4 24.3 88 92-6 12.1 3.9 52 83
-19 2.1 0.9 73 839 12.5 11.1 79 80
9.59 1.2 GDP by Activity %-10.8 4 74.4 72.0 72 58
Med -4.7 -9 11.9 14.9 33 175 21.0 21.0 31 50
41 1.2 0.6 16 74-20 -8.5 -8.5 45 50
1.3 GDP by Sector %9.16 -3 11.8 18.0 64 26 6.7 26 -11 33.0 26.2 74 83
Med 5.2 9 55.9 54.3 33 571.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
0.41 8 18.6 24.9 22 2910 112.6 28.0 77 960 104.1 40.4 89 96
19 30.8 4.0 71 91-51 4.5 7.7 81 20
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-23 19.0 29.5 39 21
Rank % -9 27.5 35.1 34 25∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -13 46.5 63.8 34 251.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-30 4.0 3.7 4.1 14 Exports (2016)-12 6.0 5.7 6.3 26 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Saudi Arabia 7.4 0.0 8 32.0 34.0 37.0 38 #2 Partner United Arab Emirates 7.4 0.0 -4 4.4 4.1 5.8 14 #3 Partner Italy 6.8 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts14 3.7 4.8 5.7 32
1.3 Infrastructure-38 4.3 3.1 4.0 17-14 7.6 7.0 6.9 55
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation1 5.9 6.4 8.3 28 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-8 20.0 31.7 44.4 35 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-4 0.6 0.6 0.8 46 0 93.4 114.8 1.8 16.0 88
1.5 Health -1 43.3 45.6 0.5 57.9 232 70.1 71.1 73.6 41 5 61.4 62.5 0.2 65.6 302 19.8 18.6 14.5 55 -6 8.4 9.8 1.7 9.6 37
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -11 15.4 19.7 2.8 23.0 27
-6.4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 38
2017-27
24
2017
3.9 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
3258
461754
5.217.30.3
43.9
18
17
57
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
70
27
43
65778150
52
3.76.1
34.0
9
5.55.7
3.56.4
44
38
30
3688
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
26
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
6758
External
79.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
6.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-10.8
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-10.2-3.315.0
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-6.4
4.2
REER79.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 6.7
24365924
62
30
Region
88
Real Rate
465388
63.7
-1.3
30.4
2444
88
Life expectancy (yrs) 39 9161.5
76
61
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
21
58.7
56.447.4
15Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
42
87899228
Remittances2
Imports G&S 2536.6
0.1
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.6
3.4
0.5
2018f4.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
23
Ethiopia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
2.6 4.9 5.2 -11.9 -11.8 -11.9 9.2 6.9 3.4 2.4- 3.1- -2.5 2.7 0.6 5.3 -19.1 -16.9 -17.0 1.6 3.2 3.5 15.4 15.9 16.3 1.7 5.9 5.9 -2.8 -3.0 -3.2 9.6 8.0 4.2 17.8 19.0 18.7 5.2 9.4 6.0 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 9.6 7.6 8.1 0.5 0.6 0.7 9.9 6.5 4.8 10.4 8.7 8.9 9.3 6.7 3.1 1.9- 2.5- -1.8 2.2
2.7 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
1.2 5.0 4.2 5.7 5.7 0.2 5.0 1.7 31.8 31.8 20.9 1.0 0.0 1.4 3.5 3.2 23.2 18.8 13.5 0.5
3.3 5.2 -7.7 -6.1 -6.2 7.0 4.4 6.1 10.1 7.3 12.2 3.6 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.6 2.0 12.6 12.2 13.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.4 4.0 - 7.5 5.0 9.4 8.0 8.0 9.6 2.3 Other
3.6 0.0 0.0 20.4 29.7 38.6 0.0 0.6 8.0 10.4 7.6 9.3 2.6 4.1 1.4 -20.1 -20.4 -21.9 0.3 5.6 4.0 120.2 121.6 118.8 9.2 3.4 9.9 118.3 120.1 110.7 1.9 4.2 5.5 9.4- 5.9- -8.2 2.6 1.4 9.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 6.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.2 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 9.3 0.38.7 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 -2.5 5.0
10.0 6.5 14.4 30.6 33.1 10.0 -11.9 9.47.7 4.0 2.3 1.8 2.0 6.4 12.2 3.07.5 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.9 0.1 -8.2 2.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth10 13 73.6 32.3 38 75
3 9.3 3.8 97 1002 105.0 24.3 89 962 1.9 3.9 2 17
0.911.1
0.84 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.5 -15 69.2 72.0 82 38
Med -4.7 -32 10.1 14.9 47 1326 43.5 21.0 73 100
0.6-8 -22.8 -8.5 14 4
1.3 GDP by Sector %8.33 -1 34.7 18.0 100 96 2 12.2 13 21.5 26.2 2 22
Med 5.2 -6 43.7 54.3 13 41.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
9.16 25 31.1 24.9 32 63-2 0.1 28.0 5 4-1 0.0 40.4 1 040 38.6 4.0 54 96
7.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
0 8.0 29.5 0 0Rank % 9 30.9 35.1 26 33
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 4 38.9 63.8 5 81.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4 3.5 3.7 4.1 18 Exports (2016)-4 4.9 4.7 6.3 10 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 14.3 0.0 4 33.0 34.0 37.0 38 #2 Partner Netherlands 12.3 0.0
-15 6.5 5.9 5.8 54 #3 Partner United States 8.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts2 1.7 3.2 5.7 2
1.3 Infrastructure-19 3.8 3.2 4.0 20-29 7.3 5.9 6.9 28
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 1.8 2.2 8.3 2 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-4 0.5 2.9 44.4 2 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202734 0.0 0.4 0.8 35 0 105.0 131.5 2.5 16.0 90
1.5 Health 1 20.4 25.3 2.4 57.9 51 55.2 63.6 73.6 18 0 55.9 60.1 0.8 65.6 140 69.4 44.4 14.5 88 -7 6.3 6.4 0.1 9.6 20
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -1 8.7 10.7 2.3 23.0 16
-11.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 17
2017-27
4
2017
-5.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
5025
46790
5.217.30.3
43.9
70
0
40
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
59
5
7
95
670
88
3.76.1
34.0
59
5.55.7
3.56.4
14
14
34
4150
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
12.2
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
51100
External
118.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
2
DomesticHigh Low
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
9.3Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.5
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.1-13.79.5
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-11.9
9.3
REER118.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 2
14100
5
16
57
Region
91
Real Rate
4
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1428
90
Life expectancy (yrs) 17 6861.5
67
99
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
9
58.7
56.447.4
0Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
6
30
95Remittances2
Imports G&S 3536.6
4.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum1.6
6.6
7.3
2018f7.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
24
Gabon
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.9 7.4 4.1 -5.6 -10.0 -8.4 9.7 9.4 2.9 1.0- 6.4- -4.4 9.5 6.6 3.9 15.6 13.1 14.8 9.5 9.1 5.5 21.3 16.9 16.5 9.9 5.7 5.9 -11.0 -11.4 -11.9 5.5 6.5 1.6 22.3 23.3 20.9 1.8 5.9 4.9 -8.4 -9.5 -9.4 3.6 7.9 4.2 -1.7 -2.1 -2.0 6.8
9.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.0 3.4 3.4 3.8 4.3 4.1 5.6 3.8 15.5 34.2 -2.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 3.2 8.9 0.2- 4.9- 7.4 4.5
7.0 3.9 -2.2 -6.2 -4.1 9.6 7.6 7.5 0.3- 2.1 3.9 7.8 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.0 3.0 6.3 5.1 6.3 8.6 5.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 4.7 1.4 8.0 2.9 46.1 41.1 44.4 9.1 2.3 Other
7.8 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.7 3.9 3.9 2.3 1.1 1.9 6.8 1.6 -7.1 -6.5 -7.6 3.1 7.2 9.0 98.6 100.4 104.0 9.6 4.3 4.7 63.6 67.0 68.8 9.4 7.7 4.4 2.8 0.4 0.8 6.3 3.2 6.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.1 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.6 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.1 4.210.0 6.3 1.9 4.2 4.4 10.0 -4.4 8.59.7 6.9 24.4 48.9 56.5 10.0 -8.4 8.99.3 5.8 4.1 2.1 1.8 9.9 3.9 1.83.0 2.9 -1.0 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 1.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0.41 -6 16.3 32.3 22 29
6 1.1 3.8 2 40 2.0 24.3 6 4-3 18.3 3.9 67 96
0.911.1
4.59 1.2 GDP by Activity %-4.4 0 36.2 72.0 2 0
Med -4.7 -2 13.8 14.9 46 3839 34.5 21.0 53 92
0.6 11
0 15.5 -8.5 98 961.3 GDP by Sector %
3.33 6 5.1 18.0 27 9 1.8 3.9 -3 44.2 26.2 97 100
Med 5.2 19 50.7 54.3 4 301.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
7.5 31 29.0 24.9 23 585 20.0 28.0 9 382 22.7 40.4 18 335 0.2 4.0 2 13
7.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
-15 44.4 29.5 79 88Rank % 16 28.3 35.1 14 29
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -11 72.7 63.8 58 581.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
22 0.0 3.8 4.1 23 Exports (2016)-9 5.0 4.6 6.3 8 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 26.7 0.0 0 35.0 35.0 37.0 43 #2 Partner Australia 9.5 0.0
-12 4.4 3.3 5.8 5 #3 Partner Italy 7.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts1 3.3 3.8 5.7 12
1.3 Infrastructure14 0.0 3.1 4.0 15-1 5.3 4.7 6.9 13
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 7.1 7.5 8.3 43 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM9 0.0 9.8 44.4 9 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20275 0.2 0.3 0.8 29 1 2.0 2.5 2.1 16.0 7
1.5 Health 0 87.6 88.7 0.1 57.9 8916 0.0 63.4 73.6 17 3 59.6 61.6 0.3 65.6 2177 0.0 39.1 14.5 80 -11 7.5 7.4 0.0 9.6 24
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -7 12.4 13.6 0.9 23.0 19
-8.4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 27
2017-27
89
2017
4.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
5517
638
17
5.217.30.3
43.9
17
11
0
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
14
45
0
91235724
0
3.76.1
34.0
41
5.55.7
3.56.4
0
17
43
2733
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
3.9
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
168
External
104
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
1.8
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityHigh
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-4.4
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.3-7.40.7
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-8.4
1.1
REER104
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 1.8
4494
98
94
55
Region
6
Real Rate
64
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1836
6
Life expectancy (yrs) 0 6461.5
2
33
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
47
58.7
56.447.4
64Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
24
15207Remittances2
Imports G&S 3036.6
1.2
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum7.2
3.8
4.3
2018f2.7
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
25
Gambia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.1 2.1 4.2 -17.2 -12.5 -11.2 7.9 9.1 2.5 15.7- 19.5- -18.4 9.7 1.4 4.2 -27.9 -22.9 -21.8 7.5 6.0 2.7 20.9 20.0 22.0 2.1 2.8 5.9 3.5 4.9 4.5 6.9 8.1 6.3 36.6 39.5 40.4 9.7 4.6 9.7 -3.0 -2.9 -5.0 9.7 6.1 5.7 13.2 11.9 11.1 3.8
9.7 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.8 5.5 1.8 0.8 0.2 9.4 9.4 0.8 0.7 37.9 3.3 1.3 10.0 0.1 0.7 37.9 3.3 1.3
3.1 4.7 -15.3 -11.7 -11.0 8.9 6.4 9.6 6.8 7.2 8.4 10.0 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
4.6 4.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 7.0 0.1 10.0 14.5 16.1 5.2 9.9 2.4 3.9 21.7 24.0 24.9 3.9 2.3 Other
10.0 4.9 5.9 41.4 41.5 40.7 1.2 2.8 5.3 4.7 1.6 2.0 3.1 7.8 4.8 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 1.8 9.9 5.3 81.5 97.8 98.5 4.5
1.7 10.0 7.7 8.8 -3.2 10.0 10.0 2.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
4.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.0 5.110.0 10.0 4.3 7.4 25.1 10.0 -18.4 6.68.0 10.0 10.4 17.3 56.2 10.0 -11.2 7.26.3 8.4 2.9 2.4 0.7 9.9 8.4 8.65.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 -3.2 9.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1.66 0 1.0 32.3 0 0
-33 2.0 3.8 55 171 2.1 24.3 7 8-2 1.7 3.9 5 13
0.911.1
10 1.2 GDP by Activity %-18.4 6 88.7 72.0 92 100
Med -4.7 1 11.9 14.9 23 17-37 19.0 21.0 66 38
0.6-1 -19.6 -8.5 8 13
1.3 GDP by Sector %7.08 -9 17.1 18.0 88 43 0.7 8.4 -1 13.3 26.2 3 0
Med 5.2 30 69.6 54.3 59 961.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
5 6 61.7 24.9 73 8817 60.1 28.0 37 794 64.4 40.4 63 79
23 40.7 4.0 75 1007.7
1.4 Openness (% GDP)23 24.9 29.5 6 38
Rank % 0 38.3 35.1 47 58∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 19 63.2 63.8 19 421.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-29 3.9 3.5 4.1 8 Exports (2016)-7 5.2 5.2 6.3 14 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 50.8 0.0 -27 34.0 26.0 37.0 9 #2 Partner India 24.1 0.0 -32 6.5 5.5 5.8 39 #3 Partner Vietnam 8.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts1 2.7 3.5 5.7 7
1.3 Infrastructure-23 4.7 3.9 4.0 47-21 6.4 4.9 6.9 15
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 2.5 2.8 8.3 3 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-7 7.6 15.6 44.4 18 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202713 0.0 0.1 0.8 13 2 2.1 2.8 3.2 16.0 11
1.5 Health 0 60.8 65.1 0.7 57.9 55-10 55.9 58.8 73.6 10 0 52.3 55.2 0.5 65.6 5-1 79.9 49.4 14.5 90 -2 4.5 4.8 0.6 9.6 4
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 5.2 6.2 2.1 23.0 2
-11.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 2
2017-27
55
2017
-2.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
1838
13548
5.217.30.3
43.9
72
5
70
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
37
6
26
1345240
91
3.76.1
34.0
68
5.55.7
3.56.4
38
22
36
7338
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
8.4
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
021
External
98.5
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
0.7
DomesticHigh High
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityHigh
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-18.4
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-12.0-10.07.2
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-11.2
2
REER98.5
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 0.7
2427
7
2
79
Region
8
Real Rate
3
63.7
-1.3
30.4
56
9
Life expectancy (yrs) 20 3661.5
98
79
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
39
58.7
56.447.4
30Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
89
556799Remittances2
Imports G&S 4736.6
0.2
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.1
0.0
3.9
2018f3.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
26
Ghana
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.8 3.4 0.5 -7.7 -6.6 -3.0 0.0 6.8 3.1 6.4- 7.9- -6.3 2.8 1.3 0.6 -8.5 -4.1 2.1 0.0 9.9 7.1 23.4 20.1 19.1 6.3 4.7 8.4 -3.2 -3.0 -5.0 7.8 2.8 2.2 29.8 28.0 25.4 2.9 4.6 9.0 -3.0 -2.9 -4.8 9.4
10.0 1.7 7.0 3.4 4.8 8.3 2.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.9 5.8 8.1 8.1 7.8 5.4 5.9 1.6 13.3 17.0 0.6 0.1 3.7 6.0 25.6 22.5 25.0 2.4
3.4 0.9 0.4 1.5 4.8 0.0 5.3 0.8 17.2 17.5 11.7 3.3 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.4 1.5 22.1 20.7 23.1 0.6 4.3 9.8 24.0 25.1 13.3 8.0 8.7 3.7 45.5 41.0 42.4 1.3 2.3 Other
3.3 9.6 5.1 16.5 10.2 10.0 7.6 4.9 8.4 3.8 3.7 7.5 5.8 6.9 3.6 -24.9 -23.5 -24.5 1.5 9.2 4.0 78.7 89.8 87.6 1.8 2.2 0.0 97.9 103.8 125.4 0.0 4.5 8.0 6.8 7.6 1.6 7.1 0.3 2.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 3.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 7.5 4.36.2 4.2 2.2 2.4 2.2 3.5 -6.3 1.61.0 1.6 56.1 45.4 36.5 0.2 -3.0 0.24.0 2.3 3.4 3.6 4.2 0.8 11.7 1.90.6 6.6 -2.4 -1.4 -1.7 8.3 1.6 6.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth9.58 0 47.1 32.3 41 67
10 7.5 3.8 89 96-2 28.9 24.3 64 541 4.6 3.9 19 58
0.911.1
7.5 1.2 GDP by Activity %-6.3 -8 80.0 72.0 98 92
Med -4.7 -5 8.5 14.9 15 8-3 13.6 21.0 10 17
0.7 0.6 5831 -2.8 -8.5 13 75
1.3 GDP by Sector %7.91 -12 18.3 18.0 95 52 4.2 11.7 16 26.3 26.2 12 52
Med 5.2 2 55.4 54.3 35 521.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
1.66 19 31.8 24.9 40 67-14 28.0 28.0 36 50-3 35.0 40.4 35 46
-10 10.0 4.0 79 657.7
1.4 Openness (% GDP)33 42.4 29.5 23 75
Rank % 6 45.2 35.1 55 83∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 26 87.6 63.8 36 791.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-8 3.6 3.6 4.1 10 Exports (2016)-37 6.8 5.9 6.3 34 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Switzerland 19.5 0.0 -3 45.0 43.0 37.0 67 #2 Partner United Arab Emirates 16.6 0.0
-37 6.6 5.4 5.8 35 #3 Partner India 11.8 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-37 6.3 5.3 5.7 37
1.3 Infrastructure-29 3.8 3.0 4.0 13-33 7.4 6.0 6.9 32
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 6.7 7.0 8.3 35 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM10 5.4 18.9 44.4 28 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202717 0.3 0.8 0.8 52 1 28.9 35.3 2.2 16.0 63
1.5 Health 0 55.3 61.1 1.0 57.9 45-8 56.6 61.1 73.6 13 -2 58.1 60.6 0.4 65.6 1511 51.0 52.3 14.5 91 0 5.8 6.3 0.8 9.6 19
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -3 8.8 10.7 2.1 23.0 15
-3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 18
2017-27
45
2017
3.4 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
2767
795067
5.217.30.3
43.9
73
75
42
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
65
36
18
78739034
80
3.76.1
34.0
73
5.55.7
3.56.4
19
72
70
1863
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
11.7
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
4199
External
87.6
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
4.2
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
7.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-6.3
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.4-2.79.9
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-3
7.5
REER87.6
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 4.2
97
4945
28
60
Region
61
Real Rate
20
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1719
62
Life expectancy (yrs) 21 4561.5
90
82
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
64
58.7
56.447.4
57Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
37
213269Remittances2
Imports G&S 6136.6
3.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.0
3.9
4.5
2018f6.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
27
Guinea
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.3 3.7 5.6 28.1 33.6 31.4 0.5 6.1 5.3 4.8- 5.5- -5.7 7.9 3.7 5.1 37.7 41.2 40.8 0.8 8.0 4.9 20.9 18.6 18.7 9.7 4.6 5.5 -6.3 -5.8 -6.4 0.5 3.1 5.4 25.7 24.1 24.4 0.3 2.4 5.0 -2.1 -1.2 -1.2 0.9 7.2 9.8 2.0 2.2 2.9 10.0 2.9 8.1 -1.4 -0.7 -1.8 7.0 5.6 4.4 2.8- 3.2- -2.8 6.8
7.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.8 5.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 5.1 6.6 3.8 15.8 24.6 18.0 4.5 0.1 5.0 1.5 -6.0 -6.0 0.1 6.1 5.5 8.0 10.9 12.0 4.7 3.7 5.6 29.2 34.1 31.9 0.5 5.7 7.7 6.0 6.7 9.2 9.4
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.1 3.3 9.8 9.4 10.0 0.4 5.0 4.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 4.0 5.3 5.0 48.8 48.1 48.2 7.3 2.3 Other
9.4 4.2 5.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.9 0.6 5.5 6.8 2.5 2.8 0.3 7.4 3.8 -4.4 -3.4 -3.9 9.1 1.6 6.3 116.7 109.9 112.3 8.1 0.3 3.3 149.4 188.0 197.4 0.3 5.7 7.8 0.7 0.1 -2.4 9.3 4.2 5.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.8 0.46.2 4.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 9.6 -5.7 6.43.6 4.9 24.1 20.3 20.0 7.6 31.4 1.22.1 4.7 5.6 6.6 6.7 1.4 9.2 4.73.6 4.9 -5.8 -4.8 -4.7 8.5 -2.4 7.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth3.33 9 19.4 32.3 9 38
-34 2.8 3.8 69 333 8.3 24.3 30 213 3.3 3.9 8 38
0.92 2.5 11.1 6 0
6.67 1.2 GDP by Activity %-5.7 -5 44.6 72.0 14 8
Med -4.7 16 20.1 14.9 70 79-4 10.2 21.0 4 0
-15 0.4 0.6 52 376 24.7 -8.5 93 100
1.3 GDP by Sector %7.5 -10 22.1 18.0 97 65
6.7 9.2 29 43.0 26.2 63 96Med 5.2 -2 34.9 54.3 3 0
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)8.75 73 79.7 24.9 12 96
7 43.8 28.0 31 71-25 40.7 40.4 61 540 0.1 4.0 5 4
7.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
-19 48.2 29.5 91 96Rank % -48 22.8 35.1 66 8
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -33 71.0 63.8 80 541.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
0 0.0 2.8 4.1 0 Exports (2016)6 4.2 4.6 6.3 9 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United Arab Emirates 30.8 0.0 3 24.0 27.0 37.0 13 #2 Partner China 18.8 0.0
10 5.0 5.4 5.8 34 #3 Partner India 7.3 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts3 3.3 4.0 5.7 14
1.3 Infrastructure0 0.0 2.1 4.0 0-3 5.4 4.5 6.9 12
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 1.6 1.6 8.3 1 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM0 0.0 1.7 44.4 0 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 0.0 0.0 0.8 0 0 8.3 16.4 2.9 16.0 48
1.5 Health 1 38.2 43.5 1.4 57.9 207 0.0 56.1 73.6 7 0 54.6 56.9 0.4 65.6 12
94 0.0 64.9 14.5 97 0 5.7 6.1 0.7 9.6 18Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 7.4 8.8 1.9 23.0 13
31.4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 15
2017-27
19
2017
0.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
021
254621
5.217.30.3
43.9
23
11
0
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
15
3
0
4000
0
3.76.1
34.0
91
5.55.7
3.56.4
0
2
10
029
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
9.2
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
1933
External
112.3
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
6.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-5.7
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.929.36.3
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
31.4
2.8
REER112.3
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 6.7
860
3799
93
88
Region
33
Real Rate
11
7
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1218
48
Life expectancy (yrs) 0 2761.5
8
86
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
46
58.7
56.447.4
71Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
1
38365Remittances2
Imports G&S 1736.6
0.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum3.5
3.6
5.5
2018f1.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
28
Kenya
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
4.8 2.0 6.5 -6.7 -5.2 -5.9 3.5 5.9 4.8 7.2- 7.8- -7.7 7.3 2.2 5.5 -13.1 -11.2 -11.5 0.6 1.7 7.1 17.7 19.3 18.4 8.8 3.5 5.9 2.1 2.4 2.2 9.2 8.0 3.5 24.9 27.1 26.1 3.0 3.2 1.1 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 7.4 9.9 8.2 5.4 4.6 4.2 10.0
7.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.7 2.7 0.6 0.3 1.1 5.6 0.6 4.6 17.5 7.8 7.1 0.3 3.4 7.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 3.0 1.3 5.7 12.4 5.2 6.4 0.3 2.4 5.0 -6.1 -4.8 -4.8 3.6 4.9 4.3 6.6 6.3 4.7 2.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.4 2.2 14.6 14.0 14.8 1.6 2.5 8.4 8.9 10.9 8.0 5.4 9.4 7.3 16.7 14.6 13.7 9.9 2.3 Other
2.0 0.1 3.1 10.7 12.3 12.7 0.1 5.2 4.1 5.7 5.8 5.1 4.8 7.7 1.6 -18.9 -17.6 -19.5 1.8 7.7 8.5 113.1 117.1 122.6 9.8 9.6 4.0 103.6 90.1 92.3 8.5 4.1 5.5 2.3 4.6 3.3 2.6 1.0 4.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 5.1 5.55.3 5.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 4.1 -7.7 5.62.2 6.3 34.7 29.3 31.6 7.0 -5.9 2.32.9 6.8 5.1 5.5 5.2 0.9 4.7 3.44.2 2.9 0.2 0.4 1.0 7.4 3.3 4.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth7.5 10 79.3 32.3 44 79
70 5.1 3.8 4 753 49.7 24.3 75 79-1 3.3 3.9 14 429 0.8 0.9 11 33
11.18.34 1.2 GDP by Activity %
-7.7 6 78.0 72.0 77 75Med -4.7 -18 13.9 14.9 64 42
-4 17.3 21.0 20 25-21 -0.1 0.6 32 11-14 -9.1 -8.5 35 42
1.3 GDP by Sector %4.16 16 35.4 18.0 84 100 5.2 4.7 -4 17.2 26.2 11 9
Med 5.2 -33 47.9 54.3 49 171.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
9.58 -3 22.1 24.9 43 42-11 40.0 28.0 44 67-13 30.4 40.4 40 4213 12.7 4.0 60 70-7 4.6 7.7 39 30
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-6 13.7 29.5 15 8
Rank % -12 22.9 35.1 30 13∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -14 36.6 63.8 22 41.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
0 3.6 3.9 4.1 25 Exports (2016)14 5.7 6.1 6.3 46 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 10.0 0.0 -6 27.0 26.0 37.0 9 #2 Partner Netherlands 9.5 0.0 23 5.1 5.8 5.8 50 #3 Partner United Kingdom 7.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts1 5.0 5.3 5.7 37
1.3 Infrastructure21 3.8 4.2 4.0 60-19 7.3 6.4 6.9 40
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 6.7 7.0 8.3 35 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM16 10.0 43.4 44.4 48 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 0.1 0.2 0.8 22 2 49.7 62.8 2.6 16.0 80
1.5 Health 1 26.5 31.3 1.8 57.9 70 54.2 61.7 73.6 15 1 56.8 60.6 0.7 65.6 16-3 80.5 47.5 14.5 89 0 4.7 5.5 1.7 9.6 10
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 7 6.6 9.3 4.0 23.0 14
-5.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 6
2017-27
6
2017
1.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
5979
137567
5.217.30.3
43.9
26
36
39
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
60
36
31
78914321
92
3.76.1
34.0
64
5.55.7
3.56.4
26
32
15
7779
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.7
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
5476
External
122.6
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.2
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
5.1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-7.7
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-7.2-5.66.5
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-5.9
5.1
REER122.6
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.2
45161021
6
40
Region
78
Real Rate
1320
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1510
78
Life expectancy (yrs) 14 5561.5
83
100
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
7
58.7
56.447.4
8Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
16
33267331
Remittances2
Imports G&S 1836.6
6.1
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.4
4.1
4.3
2018f5.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
29
Malawi
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.2 9.3 2.9 -11.1 -18.6 -15.6 6.3 4.5 2.2 6.4- 6.1- -3.7 5.6 8.7 2.7 -11.0 -17.3 -13.6 2.4 3.8 4.0 21.2 22.4 23.4 5.7
10.0 0.3 -2.8 -4.1 -3.3 9.1 6.4 2.6 27.6 28.5 27.1 4.9 6.8 3.5 -5.1 -6.1 -5.3 8.5 2.7 9.0 7.8 8.8 6.6 9.3
5.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.0 5.6 8.2 9.6 8.7 2.0 5.2 3.5 38.7 41.6 13.6 3.1 2.9 5.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 8.0 2.8 4.0 26.4 15.2 10.6 0.5 8.7 3.5 -3.0 -9.0 -6.9 2.8 4.9 0.0 21.9 21.7 2.6 0.5
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.6 4.7 2.1 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.4 9.4 19.9 24.4 14.3 5.3 1.9 7.8 29.3 33.3 30.0 2.8 2.3 Other
0.5 4.1 4.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5 4.5 8.4 2.8 2.5 4.4 3.2 3.1 5.1 -2.8 -3.0 -3.0 3.1 1.1 6.6 96.1 83.4 87.8 2.1 7.5 4.8 79.3 53.9 55.4 9.2 2.8 1.3 2.0- 2.7 11.7 0.3 9.3 3.7 0.4 0.5 0.4 8.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
2.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.4 3.44.6 5.6 2.2 1.9 2.3 1.8 -3.7 5.66.0 4.3 3.7 6.8 4.9 1.9 -15.6 5.79.6 3.8 3.5 2.5 2.7 1.2 2.6 3.63.8 4.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 7.1 11.7 3.4
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6.66 -3 6.2 32.3 5 4
-14 4.4 3.8 77 673 18.2 24.3 50 42-2 1.2 3.9 3 4
0.911.1
2.5 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.7 6 82.7 72.0 88 96
Med -4.7 7 15.9 14.9 51 58-30 11.6 21.0 33 833 2.7 0.6 51 84-1 -12.9 -8.5 17 29
1.3 GDP by Sector %2.5 0 28.6 18.0 96 87
2.7 2.6 -2 15.6 26.2 7 4Med 5.2 6 55.9 54.3 36 57
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)2.08 -1 24.1 24.9 45 46
-17 19.0 28.0 28 25-3 21.7 40.4 21 25-1 1.8 4.0 36 30
7.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
30 30.0 29.5 14 54Rank % 10 42.9 35.1 44 67
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 21 72.9 63.8 26 631.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-9 3.4 3.2 4.1 1 Exports (2016)6 4.8 5.4 6.3 20 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Belgium 12.8 0.0 -21 37.0 31.0 37.0 30 #2 Partner United States 7.8 0.0 11 3.6 4.6 5.8 20 #3 Partner Russia 6.8 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-24 5.3 4.3 5.7 23
1.3 Infrastructure-17 3.4 2.8 4.0 86 2.0 4.2 6.9 8
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 3.7 4.2 8.3 8 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
-11 4.7 5.8 44.4 5 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202743 0.0 0.6 0.8 45 2 18.2 24.6 3.2 16.0 59
1.5 Health 0 16.6 19.3 1.6 57.9 0-7 53.1 55.2 73.6 6 2 53.0 56.8 0.7 65.6 102 64.7 44.2 14.5 86 -9 5.6 5.0 -1.1 9.6 6
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 6.8 7.0 0.3 23.0 5
-15.6
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 7
2017-27
0
2017
2.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
550
382542
5.217.30.3
43.9
9
48
26
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
1
9
16
2214760
84
3.76.1
34.0
55
5.55.7
3.56.4
10
13
51
1413
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.6
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
263
External
87.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
2.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.4Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.7
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.9-15.611.8
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-15.6
4.4
REER87.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 2.7
582
8416
5
44
Region
53
Real Rate
1
63.7
-1.3
30.4
716
56
Life expectancy (yrs) 13 2361.5
94
96
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
48
58.7
56.447.4
45Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
42
111835Remittances2
Imports G&S 5436.6
8.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.4
5.3
5.0
2018f4.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
30
Mauritius
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.2 4.1 6.4 -5.0 -4.3 -5.3 1.6 4.3 4.4 3.7- 3.5- -3.4 6.0 6.6 6.2 -15.9 -16.7 -17.3 2.5 3.0 0.0 20.5 20.9 23.1 0.0 1.7 7.8 5.1 6.5 5.6 8.6 6.0 9.9 24.2 24.4 26.5 10.0 4.9 4.2 7.7 7.8 8.2 0.6 5.9 4.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.4 4.9 5.0 -1.9 -1.9 -1.9 9.3 8.5 7.4 1.0 0.2- -0.9 9.8
6.0 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.7 8.4 3.0 106.4 27.3 5.3 4.0 7.2 6.7 3.5 10.5 5.9 2.2 7.6 -2.4 -58.8 -6.9 5.1 4.0 3.8 10.2 9.1 7.9 4.1 0.7 8.5 -2.0 102.0 22.0 5.1 4.6 5.8 1.3 1.0 1.5 1.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
5.3 4.1 12.0 11.8 12.4 1.2 5.0 4.5 2.1 2.1 2.4 8.0 9.2 3.3 48.8 44.5 45.9 9.3 2.3 Other
1.6 4.7 5.1 1.9 2.0 1.9 8.9 6.1 4.8 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.2 5.4 3.9 -12.6 -12.4 -13.1 1.3 6.1 8.7 105.7 106.9 111.7 9.4 7.0 7.2 114.1 109.5 104.9 3.2 4.7 5.4 0.8 1.1 0.8 4.7 1.0 6.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.7 3.33.7 6.3 2.9 2.7 2.9 1.2 -3.4 6.86.0 5.4 81.0 92.8 97.7 4.8 -5.3 3.30.3 7.0 7.6 9.2 8.7 0.3 1.5 5.39.6 1.4 1.0 -12.7 -3.1 5.1 0.8 7.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth4.58 -2 12.9 32.3 11 13
-1 3.7 3.8 50 46-1 1.3 24.3 3 08 22.3 3.9 63 100
0.94 7.2 11.1 54 20
1.67 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.4 7 75.0 72.0 71 67
Med -4.7 13 15.9 14.9 45 58-27 17.9 21.0 49 293 0.7 0.6 46 58
-17 -9.5 -8.5 36 381.3 GDP by Sector %
1.66 -1 4.0 18.0 24 4 8.7 1.5 -14 21.8 26.2 32 26
Med 5.2 3 74.2 54.3 92 1001.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
8.33 26 84.5 24.9 64 100-4 121.0 28.0 94 1000 114.4 40.4 92 100
-18 1.9 4.0 56 350 0.5 7.7 3 0
1.4 Openness (% GDP)0 45.9 29.5 66 92
Rank % -2 55.4 35.1 76 88∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -1 101.3 63.8 73 961.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4 4.3 4.4 4.1 74 Exports (2016)-20 7.6 7.2 6.3 73 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 12.7 0.0 -5 57.0 54.0 37.0 80 #2 Partner France 10.6 0.0 17 6.4 6.9 5.8 82 #3 Partner United Kingdom 8.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-18 7.7 6.5 5.7 75
1.3 Infrastructure7 4.6 4.6 4.0 74
-46 8.4 6.3 6.9 371.4 Human Capital and Innovation
-2 6.9 7.2 8.3 38 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-1 22.5 41.4 44.4 43 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202730 0.3 1.5 0.8 64 1 1.3 1.3 0.2 16.0 3
1.5 Health -5 39.4 39.6 0.0 57.9 153 72.6 74.5 73.6 61 0 70.7 68.3 -0.3 65.6 85-2 15.1 12.5 14.5 38 3 15.5 23.7 5.3 9.6 74
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 5 59.5 104.3 7.5 23.0 79
-5.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 73
2017-27
20
2017
-1.4 5.1
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
100100
9210096
5.217.30.3
43.9
64
93
67
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
85
40
44
8782
10032
40
3.76.1
34.0
0
5.55.7
3.56.4
70
93
85
9575
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.5
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
949
External
111.7
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.4
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.4-6.73.8
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-5.3
3.7
REER111.7
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8.7
58214919
17
91
Region
2
Real Rate
71
59
63.7
-1.3
30.4
8571
2
Life expectancy (yrs) 58 10061.5
78
23
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
72
58.7
56.447.4
66Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
95
8992373
Remittances2
Imports G&S 7436.6
8.0
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.5
5.0
7.5
2018f3.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
31
Morocco
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
6.8 7.8 4.4 -2.1 -4.4 -3.9 2.8 4.1 2.7 4.9- 4.5- -3.5 4.2 8.3 3.7 -14.5 -17.0 -16.2 0.8 4.8 4.3 23.6 23.7 24.0 8.7 5.8 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.2 8.6 4.3 3.5 28.5 28.2 27.5 1.8 4.1 4.1 -1.9 -1.7 -1.6 5.0 3.3 5.5 7.5 7.9 7.8 5.8
4.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.2 3.5 2.6 1.6 1.9 6.7 7.1 3.9 1.8 4.6 3.3 1.9 0.6 6.6 1.3 -0.3 0.2 6.3 4.3 6.6 6.9 6.2 7.7 5.5 8.7 4.0 0.4 -2.7 -2.0 3.1 5.2 2.4 1.6 1.6 0.6 2.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.6 4.1 4.6- 1.6 -2.0 3.2 3.6 2.5 41.9 43.7 46.7 0.5 9.4 9.1 2.8 2.4 2.2 10.0 4.6 4.5 34.8 35.1 35.5 2.1 2.3 Other
2.0 5.7 5.9 16.5 16.2 15.9 8.7 0.9 9.3 4.5 1.2 4.4 6.8 2.7 3.4 -44.1 -48.2 -51.0 1.7 7.7 2.6 98.6 100.6 98.8 3.5 1.7 3.7 105.6 108.4 109.4 0.1 6.3 2.9 1.3 0.8 1.6 4.5 7.2 4.0 0.4 0.5 0.4 3.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.4 2.64.1 7.2 3.8 3.7 4.0 5.8 -3.5 3.38.9 5.1 29.8 35.5 35.7 9.1 -3.9 2.15.1 5.9 6.7 6.7 6.3 5.4 0.6 4.61.1 8.1 -0.6 2.2 0.0 6.5 1.6 8.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6.66 0 110.8 32.3 59 83
6 4.4 3.8 56 670 35.7 24.3 71 671 8.5 3.9 33 71-9 3.1 0.9 85 100-3 10.0 11.1 80 40
2.09 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.5 0 58.1 72.0 35 21
Med -4.7 6 18.5 14.9 71 71-8 29.2 21.0 93 83-2 2.8 0.6 87 893 -8.6 -8.5 20 46
1.3 GDP by Sector %0.83 6 14.7 18.0 66 35 6.3 0.6 6 29.2 26.2 38 65
Med 5.2 -17 56.2 54.3 62 651.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
5.41 11 17.6 24.9 16 21-5 106.3 28.0 89 92-2 90.4 40.4 86 92-3 15.9 4.0 80 74
-16 14.6 7.7 89 701.4 Openness (% GDP)
3 35.5 29.5 45 63Rank % -2 44.1 35.1 60 71
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 0 79.6 63.8 53 711.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
1 4.1 4.2 4.1 51 Exports (2016)3 6.3 6.8 6.3 61 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Spain 24.6 0.0 -1 37.0 37.0 37.0 50 #2 Partner France 16.6 0.0 15 6.0 6.2 5.8 68 #3 Partner United Kingdom 5.2 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts7 4.7 5.3 5.7 37
1.3 Infrastructure12 4.1 4.4 4.0 678 7.4 8.0 6.9 72
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 4.1 4.4 8.3 10 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM9 32.2 56.8 44.4 68 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 0.7 1.0 0.8 53 0 35.7 39.8 1.1 16.0 70
1.5 Health 0 61.2 65.7 0.7 57.9 56-7 71.3 70.9 73.6 38 4 65.8 65.2 -0.1 65.6 57-6 32.3 26.1 14.5 66 5 10.3 15.5 5.1 9.6 59
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 4 24.7 41.0 6.6 23.0 56
-3.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 52
2017-27
56
2017
1.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
8692
679667
5.217.30.3
43.9
53
29
54
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
63
13
59
301009552
72
3.76.1
34.0
18
5.55.7
3.56.4
50
58
51
8296
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.6
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
5963
External
98.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
6.3
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.4Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.5
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.4-4.01.2
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-3.9
4.4
REER98.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 6.3
77848523
44
28
Region
71
Real Rate
347676
63.7
-1.3
30.4
5353
70
Life expectancy (yrs) 44 8261.5
35
72
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
53
58.7
56.447.4
48Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
44
84847772
Remittances2
Imports G&S 5836.6
6.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum2.7
4.8
5.2
2018f3.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
32
Mozambique
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.0 3.9 0.0 -40.3 -38.3 -16.2 2.2 2.6 5.3 6.1- 3.9- -4.2 4.3 0.0 -28.1 -12.9 9.7 9.1 29.6 26.2 23.2 8.5 9.9 0.4 -15.6 -26.0 -16.7 6.4 0.9 2.9 35.7 30.0 27.4 2.3 5.9 9.6 -2.0 -2.3 -4.6 8.5 9.7 0.8 5.4 2.8 5.0 8.8
4.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.8 9.8 26.1 28.3 14.2 7.2 2.0 2.1 37.5 18.6 1.6 0.3 9.7 0.0 0.2 1.2 -0.1 3.9 0.8 2.3 26.1 10.1 0.7 0.0 2.5 1.0 -14.2 -10.0 -2.0 2.2 8.3 2.2 3.6 19.9 7.2 5.1
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
9.0 0.1 5.2 4.2 6.3 0.7 4.4 0.0 5.3 5.8 24.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 32.2 34.8 43.6 0.0 2.3 Other
5.1 0.0 9.4 2.8 5.7 4.2 1.0 0.0 1.8 6.6 3.8 3.0 0.0 9.4 5.0 -11.2 -8.4 -8.4 5.1 3.4 5.4 73.4 56.8 60.6 2.3
8.0 0.4 1.8 14.0- 16.9 1.3 7.1 2.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 7.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
2.3 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.0 0.20.5 1.6 3.2 2.8 2.5 7.1 -4.2 3.87.7 2.1 29.2 36.5 28.9 6.7 -16.2 1.94.2 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.7 6.3 7.2 4.84.4 3.9 -0.1 0.1 0.6 2.4 16.9 1.2
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth3.75 -4 13.2 32.3 15 17
-34 3.0 3.8 71 382 29.7 24.3 61 580 1.2 3.9 1 4
0.911.1
4.17 1.2 GDP by Activity %-4.2 -36 60.4 72.0 79 25
Med -4.7 27 25.8 14.9 72 10017 18.1 21.0 5 3338 24.3 0.6 61 100-32 -28.6 -8.5 38 0
1.3 GDP by Sector %6.66 0 24.6 18.0 89 78 3.7 7.2 8 22.8 26.2 9 30
Med 5.2 -11 52.6 54.3 42 431.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
0 30 60.4 24.9 47 8313 36.4 28.0 16 585 43.7 40.4 38 678 4.2 4.0 45 52
7.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
25 43.6 29.5 34 79Rank % 45 72.2 35.1 42 100
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 40 115.8 63.8 35 1001.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-3 3.3 3.2 4.1 2 Exports (2016)-6 5.3 5.4 6.3 18 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner South Africa 16.4 0.0 -13 31.0 27.0 37.0 13 #2 Partner China 10.7 0.0 -3 3.5 2.7 5.8 3 #3 Partner India 9.2 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
-24 5.3 4.3 5.7 231.3 Infrastructure-16 3.3 2.7 4.0 6-12 5.6 4.3 6.9 9
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 1.1 1.2 8.3 0 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-4 2.7 5.9 44.4 6 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
0.0 0.8 5 29.7 39.2 3.2 16.0 691.5 Health -1 32.8 36.7 1.2 57.9 10
-5 47.9 50.2 73.6 1 0 52.1 54.7 0.5 65.6 4-1 90.4 61.5 14.5 95 -8 6.1 5.9 -0.2 9.6 16
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 7.1 7.7 1.0 23.0 10
-16.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 12
2017-27
11
2017
16.1 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
946
254
42
5.217.30.3
43.9
7
48
22
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
21
2
10
018
0
97
3.76.1
34.0
86
5.55.7
3.56.4
6
25
27
917
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
7.2
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
1035
External
60.6
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-4.2
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.0-15.87.9
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-16.2
3
REER60.6
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3.7
10023
1004
18
78
Region
64
Real Rate
1
63.7
-1.3
30.4
424
64
Life expectancy (yrs) 7 561.5
42
89
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
77
58.7
56.447.4
60Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
31
294353Remittances2
Imports G&S 8836.6
5.2
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.8
4.8
4.9
2018f3.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
33
Namibia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.7 5.7 1.0 -14.0 -14.5 -10.7 7.7 3.0 3.3 8.2- 6.8- -5.6 7.0 0.2 3.1 -27.2 -19.9 -17.6 5.8 8.6 5.4 34.6 30.6 30.2 7.7 8.8 4.7 1.4 -0.6 -0.5 8.4 0.6 3.3 42.8 37.4 35.8 5.1 9.2 3.9 -0.8 -3.4 -2.8 8.0 0.0 5.4 8.6 2.3 2.6 5.2 8.8 3.9 12.6 9.4 10.2 7.0 9.2 3.3 0.4 4.5- -2.9 7.0
7.0 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.7 5.7 9.9 2.8 2.0 9.0 7.6 4.3 8.1 15.1 13.3 5.1 1.9 4.5 1.8 -0.4 -0.8 7.9 4.1 5.8 10.2 4.9 9.7 3.6 9.8 2.4 -4.0 -11.7 -8.7 9.2 9.5 2.5 3.4 6.7 5.2 2.7
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
8.1 1.1 6.1 5.5 6.4 3.1 2.8 1.6 5.9 6.6 7.7 3.6 1.4 6.9 39.0 42.2 40.9 8.1 2.3 Other
2.7 0.2 5.3 6.0 1.1 1.3 0.7 8.1 1.6 -7.7 -7.1 -7.8 2.0 4.1 8.9 87.9 85.8 97.1 4.0 5.8 3.0 80.9 77.7 85.0 8.0 9.3 0.9 2.5 0.2- 2.5 1.1 3.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.1 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
4.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.3 4.73.4 5.3 3.8 3.2 3.3 2.0 -5.6 3.94.1 4.8 41.6 33.6 32.4 3.6 -10.7 6.52.4 4.0 2.8 3.5 3.7 2.4 5.2 4.79.0 0.8 0.0 -1.0 0.2 0.3 2.5 4.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1.03 1 13.5 32.3 10 10
-15 1.3 3.8 26 100 2.5 24.3 10 90 11.4 3.9 42 38
0.911.1
8.1 1.2 GDP by Activity %-5.6 19 70.3 72.0 50 73
Med -4.7 0 23.2 14.9 97 94-8 22.1 21.0 57 48
-57 -0.1 0.6 68 12-15 -15.5 -8.5 27 10
1.3 GDP by Sector %7.16 -3 6.7 18.0 45 47 3.7 5.2 -48 25.4 26.2 75 27
Med 5.2 34 67.9 54.3 48 771.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
3.49 33 37.4 24.9 29 63-3 59.7 28.0 56 48-2 51.8 40.4 55 48
4.07.7 64
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-15 40.9 29.5 72 57
Rank % -1 56.4 35.1 78 79∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -8 97.3 63.8 75 681.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-13 4.1 4.0 4.1 38 Exports (2016)-25 6.4 5.9 6.3 34 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner South Africa 13.5 0.0 4 48.0 52.0 37.0 79 #2 Partner Belgium 10.8 0.0
-17 6.4 5.6 5.8 45 #3 Partner Spain 6.3 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-3 5.3 5.5 5.7 45
1.3 Infrastructure-13 5.6 4.7 4.0 77-40 7.9 5.9 6.9 30
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 6.0 6.2 8.3 27 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-3 5.9 14.8 44.4 16 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-19 0.3 0.2 0.8 14 3 2.5 3.1 2.2 16.0 141.5 Health 6 48.6 56.8 1.7 57.9 37
-4 61.0 64.3 73.6 20 1 59.8 61.4 0.3 65.6 205 31.4 35.2 14.5 75 0 5.9 6.8 1.4 9.6 21
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 9.7 12.1 2.5 23.0 18
-10.7
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 20
2017-27
31
2017
1.7 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
8267
886783
5.217.30.3
43.9
62
48
91
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
72
28
19
61412933
70
3.76.1
34.0
23
5.55.7
3.56.4
51
60
74
10058
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
5.2
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
1110
External
97.1
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.3Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-5.6
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.6-9.66.0
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-10.7
1.3
REER97.1
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3.7
97491011
25
63
Region
10
Real Rate
42
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1921
11
Life expectancy (yrs) 24 7761.5
70
41
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
67
58.7
56.447.4
56Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
83
5353
Remittances2
Imports G&S 7736.6
6.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum8.3
2.4
3.0
2018f3.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
34
Nigeria
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.7 0.3 2.5 -3.1 0.7 2.3 6.4 9.9 3.1 1.1- 2.8- -2.3 8.7 3.0 2.1 -1.3 -0.1 1.9 8.6 7.8 3.4 3.7 3.0 3.3 9.0 0.2 7.8 -3.3 -2.0 -2.4 0.5 8.7 4.9 4.8 5.7 5.7 2.2 3.4 7.7 -2.6 -2.1 -2.6 0.7 0.3 1.9 4.1 4.9 5.4 4.5
8.7 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
1.6 4.5 0.3 0.8 0.8 7.7 4.8 3.8 30.7 25.6 5.5 2.6 5.4 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.9 4.8 1.8 19.1 18.4 3.5 1.5 0.2 2.5 -2.8 1.4 3.1 6.7 9.9 5.2 9.0 15.7 15.9 9.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.0 3.2 72.1 60.6 70.3 9.1 6.4 1.2 10.5 9.3 13.0 0.7 5.9 3.5 10.7 9.2 11.7 9.1 2.3 Other
9.6 3.2 9.3 29.2 31.3 25.1 2.0 0.6 7.9 2.7 1.6- 0.7 0.7 9.6 4.2 -87.5 -57.9 -61.5 9.1 0.0 6.8 116.2 92.1 96.4 3.6 6.5 4.6 33.0 21.3 23.9 9.1 9.7 2.4 1.5 6.4- -3.0 5.7 5.5 5.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.6 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 0.7 2.35.6 0.0 3.6 3.6 2.4 4.8 -2.3 8.46.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 5.71.8 2.0 4.8 6.6 8.4 3.5 15.9 8.09.3 4.5 3.8 -11.7 -10.2 1.6 -3.0 3.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 -2 389.5 32.3 86 100
-69 0.7 3.8 75 00 190.9 24.3 95 100
-12 5.9 3.9 36 63-65 -1.2 0.9 76 0
11.10.42 1.2 GDP by Activity %
-2.3 31 79.9 72.0 56 88Med -4.7 -35 5.6 14.9 38 0
9 14.3 21.0 1 210.7 0.6 58
-30 -0.5 -8.5 86 881.3 GDP by Sector %
8.75 0 21.7 18.0 85 61 8.4 15.9 -12 18.4 26.2 21 17
Med 5.2 15 59.9 54.3 40 781.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
3.75 3 0.9 24.9 10 8-1 24.1 28.0 17 42
-12 20.7 40.4 27 216 25.1 4.0 77 83
7.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
-44 11.7 29.5 51 4Rank % -9 12.2 35.1 10 0
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -26 23.9 63.8 29 01.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-2 3.4 3.5 4.1 7 Exports (2016)0 4.4 4.5 6.3 5 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner India 19.6 0.0 0 27.0 28.0 37.0 15 #2 Partner United States 11.0 0.0
12 3.8 4.9 5.8 23 #3 Partner Spain 9.3 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts26 5.3 6.5 5.7 75
1.3 Infrastructure-6 2.4 2.4 4.0 2-4 3.4 2.9 6.9 2
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 5.1 5.2 8.3 20 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-9 28.4 42.7 44.4 44 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-28 0.5 0.2 0.8 20 2 190.9 245.5 2.9 16.0 971.5 Health 3 49.4 56.5 1.4 57.9 35
-4 47.9 52.5 73.6 3 -1 53.3 55.3 0.4 65.6 71 95.8 74.3 14.5 100 -4 5.2 5.2 0.0 9.6 7
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 6.3 6.8 0.9 23.0 4
2.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 4
2017-27
32
2017
-1.3 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
148
333396
5.217.30.3
43.9
11
48
9
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
7
23
53
52863849
99
3.76.1
34.0
100
5.55.7
3.56.4
9
5
15
50
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
15.9
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
844
External
96.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8.4
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
0.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.3
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.42.3
14.2
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
2.3
0.7
REER96.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8.4
1104955
8
12
Region
95
Real Rate
249
63.7
-1.3
30.4
912
95
Life expectancy (yrs) 8 1461.5
89
85
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
2
58.7
56.447.4
5Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
56
161583Remittances2
Imports G&S 136.6
2.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.9
5.4
5.0
2018f2.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
35
Rwanda
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.7 6.7 1.9 -13.4 -14.4 -12.6 8.7 2.5 6.4 5.4- 3.9- -4.7 8.7 6.2 1.3 -15.0 -15.5 -13.6 2.8 6.1 8.2 23.8 23.3 22.0 5.7 5.6 3.5 -2.3 -2.5 -2.1 5.6 1.4 3.9 29.0 27.0 26.5 7.1 5.9 5.7 -2.6 -2.7 -2.7 9.5 5.5 6.0 6.5 6.2 5.8 9.6
8.7 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.2 1.9 2.7 2.9 4.1 0.7 8.4 1.4 14.1 60.7 8.0 2.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 7.0 5.4 0.3 25.5 27.2 4.9 0.4
6.1 0.8 -10.7 -11.5 -8.5 8.0 7.8 1.7 2.5 5.7 1.6 1.2 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
3.6 1.0 2.1 2.2 2.5 0.4 7.7 0.5 5.0 3.8 6.5 6.1 3.3 3.2 14.3 15.1 15.7 0.5 2.3 Other
1.2 4.6 6.0 7.4 7.8 7.1 7.8 1.4 3.9 8.9 5.9 5.1 0.7 1.3 2.3 -3.3 -3.4 -3.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 103.7 99.3 96.2 1.4
8.3 0.8 2.5 2.0- 4.9 1.6 0.8 9.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 9.8 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 5.1 1.77.9 6.3 1.7 1.8 1.9 9.9 -4.7 8.0
10.0 6.5 1.1 20.5 23.5 10.0 -12.6 8.64.7 6.2 4.2 4.3 4.0 9.3 1.6 4.7
4.9 6.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth7.5 4 8.6 32.3 2 8
-21 5.1 3.8 98 753 12.2 24.3 43 292 2.0 3.9 4 25
0.911.1
5.42 1.2 GDP by Activity %-4.7 0 78.3 72.0 85 79
Med -4.7 -1 14.9 14.9 54 5029 26.5 21.0 46 7115 0.6 0.6 31 53-9 -20.3 -8.5 16 8
1.3 GDP by Sector %2.08 4 31.3 18.0 94 91 4 1.6 3 17.6 26.2 4 13
Med 5.2 -19 51.0 54.3 45 351.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
3.33 26 25.6 24.9 24 545 24.3 28.0 12 466 22.9 40.4 15 386 7.1 4.0 57 57-5 18.7 7.7 86 90
1.4 Openness (% GDP)9 15.7 29.5 2 13
Rank % 19 36.0 35.1 23 54∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 20 51.7 63.8 6 291.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
16 4.0 4.3 4.1 63 Exports (2016)7 6.4 7.0 6.3 68 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United Arab Emirates 37.3 0.0 -2 53.0 54.0 37.0 80 #2 Partner Thailand 8.1 0.0
-23 6.5 5.7 5.8 47 #3 Partner China 6.8 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-38 6.3 5.2 5.7 36
1.3 Infrastructure10 4.3 4.5 4.0 68-33 7.6 6.1 6.9 34
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 3.0 3.3 8.3 6 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-3 4.5 10.6 44.4 10 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 0.0 0.0 0.8 0 0 12.2 15.1 2.4 16.0 47
1.5 Health 4 30.7 39.4 2.8 57.9 1310 50.1 64.0 73.6 19 2 56.9 60.7 0.7 65.6 18-10 71.6 37.1 14.5 78 9 5.2 6.8 3.0 9.6 22
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 3 7.4 11.7 5.9 23.0 17
-12.6
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 14
2017-27
9
2017
1.2 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
9596
927163
5.217.30.3
43.9
71
75
58
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
67
8
13
172700
89
3.76.1
34.0
36
5.55.7
3.56.4
46
61
82
8671
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.6
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
676
External
96.2
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
4
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
5.1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-4.7
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.6-13.25.3
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-12.6
5.1
REER96.2
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 4
5376466
7
51
Region
46
Real Rate
6
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1613
47
Life expectancy (yrs) 9 7361.5
85
98
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
27
58.7
56.447.4
11Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
25
17216481
Remittances2
Imports G&S 4336.6
8.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.6
4.8
6.1
2018f5.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
36
Senegal
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
9.5 3.9 6.1 -8.7 -7.8 -8.7 4.3 2.0 5.0 5.0- 4.0- -4.0 1.2 4.1 6.0 -18.9 -18.0 -18.9 4.7 0.8 8.4 25.0 26.7 25.6 0.8 0.8 5.0 -1.3 -0.9 -0.9 5.9 7.7 1.2 30.0 30.7 29.6 7.9 2.4 2.5 -3.1 -2.8 -2.5 7.9 3.4 8.5 2.0 1.9 2.1 9.4 7.3 6.9 14.6 14.0 13.6 1.5 2.2 3.5 3.0- 2.2- -1.9 0.2
1.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
8.7 4.5 2.8 2.4 2.5 1.9 5.2 2.4 11.2 11.6 6.6 1.3 5.2 4.4 -1.4 -1.3 -1.5 1.3 5.6 2.4 13.3 14.2 10.3 5.3 4.4 6.0 -5.9 -5.4 -6.2 3.9 5.8 4.2 0.1 0.8 0.2 2.9
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
4.4 2.7 6.1 6.2 6.6 1.7 2.7 8.1 4.3 4.6 4.2 7.2 6.8 5.2 29.2 28.7 28.7 1.4 2.3 Other
2.9 1.1 6.6 26.5 27.9 27.4 2.0 5.4 5.1 6.5 6.7 6.7 9.5 4.7 2.8 -7.3 -7.3 -7.9 1.9 7.7 6.1 84.8 88.0 89.1 1.2 3.5 6.3 101.0 102.8 101.2 4.1 5.5 4.7 4.2 3.8 4.0 3.1 4.2 4.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.2 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 6.7 7.910.0 6.7 3.4 4.9 5.1 10.0 -4.0 1.6
-8.7 5.58.6 5.5 3.9 3.0 2.9 9.2 0.2 6.06.2 2.8 0.4 0.2 0.5 5.9 4.0 7.2
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth9.16 -4 15.7 32.3 19 25
49 6.7 3.8 39 920 15.8 24.3 47 33-3 2.7 3.9 11 29
0.911.1
3.34 1.2 GDP by Activity %-4 -11 74.6 72.0 89 63
Med -4.7 2 15.7 14.9 55 547 26.1 21.0 67 67
-70 -0.1 0.6 82 114 -16.3 -8.5 6 17
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 10 17.6 18.0 69 48
2.9 0.2 4 24.4 26.2 18 39Med 5.2 -22 58.0 54.3 72 70
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)2.5 34 41.6 24.9 34 79
-2 37.4 28.0 34 6311 53.3 40.4 45 750 27.4 4.0 89 87-3 7.1 7.7 53 40
1.4 Openness (% GDP)12 28.7 29.5 24 42
Rank % -6 45.0 35.1 67 79∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 4 73.7 63.8 45 671.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-10 3.7 3.7 4.1 17 Exports (2016)6 4.4 5.1 6.3 13 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner India 11.2 0.0 23 36.0 45.0 37.0 69 #2 Partner Switzerland 9.4 0.0 1 4.9 4.8 5.8 22 #3 Partner China 5.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
10 3.0 4.2 5.7 171.3 Infrastructure
-6 3.9 3.8 4.0 415 3.3 4.5 6.9 10
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 4.2 4.5 8.3 13 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-2 7.4 17.7 44.4 23 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20272 0.4 0.5 0.8 39 6 15.8 20.6 3.0 16.0 55
1.5 Health -1 44.4 48.8 1.0 57.9 27-2 55.6 63.4 73.6 16 0 54.1 56.9 0.5 65.6 112 56.9 43.9 14.5 85 -3 5.6 5.7 0.2 9.6 12
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 7.0 8.1 1.5 23.0 11
-8.7
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 11
2017-27
28
2017
2.6 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
4533
832933
5.217.30.3
43.9
21
7
47
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
4
15
24
35557137
83
3.76.1
34.0
50
5.55.7
3.56.4
28
7
46
6421
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.2
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
1589
External
89.1
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
2.9
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
6.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-4
High
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.3-9.21.6
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-8.7
6.7
REER89.1
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 2.9
57741010
22
69
Region
47
Real Rate
8
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1115
49
Life expectancy (yrs) 18 5961.5
77
80
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
49
58.7
56.447.4
36Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
48
32578950
Remittances2
Imports G&S 6036.6
6.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum2.9
6.6
5.7
2018f5.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
37
Tanzania
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.9 0.4 6.6 -9.0 -4.2 -5.5 0.4 5.8 3.9 3.1- 3.5- -2.9 3.2 0.6 6.2 -9.7 -5.8 -6.6 0.3 2.8 1.3 14.0 14.8 16.3 1.5 0.1 7.8 1.6 3.0 2.5 0.8 8.6 8.0 17.1 18.3 19.2 6.2 7.1 3.3 -2.0 -2.2 -2.1 9.1 6.1 5.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 8.1
3.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
6.6 6.1 3.5 2.9 2.4 9.5 0.5 6.2 26.8 2.5 6.6 0.5 0.0 5.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.6 4.9 13.4 4.7 4.3 0.9 1.2 6.8 -5.5 -1.4 -3.1 1.5 4.6 4.8 5.6 5.2 5.0 1.3
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
3.4 7.3 9.5 9.8 9.3 2.4 8.5 9.2 12.1 8.8 4.0 9.6 8.8 8.1 21.6 19.5 17.8 8.8 2.3 Other
1.3 7.3 3.9 4.1 3.4 3.7 3.5 4.9 3.6 7.0 7.0 6.4 3.9 9.0 4.3 -13.6 -11.8 -12.1 4.1 1.6 5.8 108.1 101.4 102.8 6.4 0.0 8.5 80.2 110.5 97.2 5.9 6.7 7.6 6.5 3.6 -1.0 6.2 3.0 4.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
6.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 6.4 1.31.7 0.9 1.9 1.8 1.5 4.7 -2.9 4.43.9 1.5 49.5 47.1 38.7 1.9 -5.5 1.61.4 1.7 3.9 4.9 5.8 0.3 5.0 2.38.4 1.0 0.7 -0.2 1.0 4.8 -1.0 6.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth8.33 5 50.9 32.3 39 71
31 6.4 3.8 52 835 57.3 24.3 77 831 2.8 3.9 9 33
0.911.1
1.25 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.9 -2 64.9 72.0 54 33
Med -4.7 -26 13.4 14.9 66 333 34.3 21.0 90 88-2 -8.6 0.6 2 011 -4.0 -8.5 30 71
1.3 GDP by Sector %4.58 -2 23.4 18.0 90 74 5.8 5 21 28.6 26.2 19 61
Med 5.2 -9 47.6 54.3 23 131.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
7.08 9 24.9 24.9 39 50-3 0.0 28.0 3 0-2 15.2 40.4 12 826 3.7 4.0 19 48-4 23.8 7.7 92 100
1.4 Openness (% GDP)1 17.8 29.5 11 17
Rank % -10 21.7 35.1 25 4∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 1 39.5 63.8 11 131.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-11 3.6 3.6 4.1 9 Exports (2016)-10 5.7 5.4 6.3 21 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United Arab Emirates 15.8 0.0 -9 35.0 32.0 37.0 33 #2 Partner India 15.3 0.0
-10 6.6 6.2 5.8 67 #3 Partner Switzerland 12.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-33 5.3 4.0 5.7 14
1.3 Infrastructure4 3.0 3.1 4.0 16-5 7.3 7.1 6.9 57
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 4.9 5.1 8.3 19 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-4 1.5 4.9 44.4 3 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-38 0.4 0.0 0.8 0 1 57.3 77.0 3.4 16.0 831.5 Health 4 33.0 39.9 2.1 57.9 16
-5 55.6 61.5 73.6 14 0 52.0 54.5 0.5 65.6 3-8 66.8 36.4 14.5 77 -8 6.0 5.9 -0.1 9.6 15
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -1 6.9 7.6 1.0 23.0 9
-5.5
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 10
2017-27
12
2017
-1.8 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
2354
429221
5.217.30.3
43.9
77
48
12
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
62
22
8
489039
86
3.76.1
34.0
32
5.55.7
3.56.4
20
30
43
3292
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
5
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
4484
External
102.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.8
DomesticLow Low
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
6.4Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.9
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.2-6.35.8
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-5.5
6.4
REER102.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.8
39930
42
41
48
Region
82
Real Rate
10
63.7
-1.3
30.4
323
82
Life expectancy (yrs) 19 5061.5
52
88
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
13
58.7
56.447.4
13Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
14
09
4688
Remittances2
Imports G&S 1536.6
5.8
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum2.5
5.9
6.0
2018f5.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
38
Tunisia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.5 4.5 9.7 -8.9 -8.8 -10.8 9.5 7.6 6.2 4.4- 5.4- -5.8 9.6 4.4 9.2 -11.5 -11.2 -13.4 9.0 6.0 3.3 23.8 23.5 24.1 6.6 4.8 3.8 0.5 0.6 0.9 9.3 6.5 7.0 28.2 28.9 29.8 8.4 2.7 9.1 -2.5 -2.2 -2.7 1.1 9.8 7.8 1.9 2.2 2.3 9.7 9.4 2.2 4.5 4.1 4.3 7.0 7.1 5.9 2.4- 3.2- -3.5 9.3
9.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
6.0 4.0 2.2 1.7 2.0 7.5 6.5 7.9 8.9 10.1 12.7 7.4 0.0 8.6 0.4 -0.1 0.1 6.8 9.5 7.0 5.4 8.0 9.0 4.1 5.8 8.3 -6.7 -7.1 -8.8 9.3 1.3 9.9 4.9 3.7 6.4 9.9
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 2.2 7.5 5.0 1.4 4.5 5.5 5.9 4.4 19.9 19.1 19.6 9.4 8.4 0.1 4.7 4.2 5.4 0.3 5.4 1.7 40.1 39.6 43.8 7.6 2.3 Other
9.9 8.7 6.0 8.3 7.4 7.3 5.6 5.2 6.0 1.0 1.2 1.9 3.5 6.0 3.8 -23.8 -22.8 -23.8 8.3 0.2 0.0 101.4 96.8 85.0 0.0
100.0 100.0 103.7 2.4 9.4 0.1- 0.5 -0.9 8.8 4.6 8.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 7.1 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.9 6.59.5 5.8 4.0 4.9 5.0 9.6 -5.8 8.1
10.0 8.3 88.8 112.7 121.3 9.9 -10.8 8.47.3 6.2 4.0 3.3 3.0 8.9 6.4 6.67.5 2.6 1.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 -0.9 3.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1.25 -9 39.4 32.3 46 63
-23 1.9 3.8 44 130 11.5 24.3 45 25-5 11.9 3.9 50 79
-14 1.4 0.9 47 673 15.9 11.1 91 100
7.09 1.2 GDP by Activity %-5.8 29 72.0 72.0 43 50
Med -4.7 23 20.9 14.9 67 88-19 19.5 21.0 48 42
0.6 56
-34 -12.4 -8.5 52 331.3 GDP by Sector %
6.25 9 10.1 18.0 48 22 3 6.4 -30 26.0 26.2 58 48
Med 5.2 11 64.0 54.3 61 831.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
1.25 12 63.3 24.9 67 9215 94.5 28.0 67 88-3 71.5 40.4 77 833 7.3 4.0 62 61
-10 7.7 7.7 67 501.4 Openness (% GDP)
-11 43.8 29.5 73 83Rank % 2 56.1 35.1 73 92
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -1 99.9 63.8 72 921.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-55 4.7 3.9 4.1 31 Exports (2016)-20 6.9 6.5 6.3 55 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner France 32.6 0.0 -1 41.0 41.0 37.0 62 #2 Partner Italy 18.3 0.0 0 6.1 5.9 5.8 55 #3 Partner Germany 11.7 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
-29 5.7 4.7 5.7 281.3 Infrastructure-48 5.5 3.7 4.0 36-2 8.4 8.2 6.9 82
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation1 6.0 6.5 8.3 30 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
-11 34.1 46.2 44.4 52 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202748 0.0 0.8 0.8 49 -1 11.5 12.6 0.9 16.0 45
1.5 Health 0 67.3 69.7 0.4 57.9 63-23 74.3 73.6 73.6 50 -7 68.0 65.9 -0.3 65.6 65-6 18.3 13.1 14.5 42 3 11.8 17.0 4.5 9.6 65
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -3 33.3 48.9 4.7 23.0 62
-10.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 65
2017-27
63
2017
0.3 4.9
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
6883
758350
5.217.30.3
43.9
55
58
86
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
84
28
63
7095860
48
3.76.1
34.0
5
5.55.7
3.56.4
88
76
63
59100
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
6.4
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
3620
External
85
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3
DomesticModerate High
Undervalued
VulnerabilityHigh
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.9Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-5.8
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.0-9.95.1
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-10.8
1.9
REER85
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3
9128
17
27
80
Region
45
Real Rate
453394
63.7
-1.3
30.4
7262
46
Life expectancy (yrs) 73 9561.5
73
57
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
71
58.7
56.447.4
61Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
73
83746556
Remittances2
Imports G&S 7536.6
1.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.5
2.6
2.1
2018f3.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
39
Uganda
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.7 0.4 6.9 -6.7 -3.4 -4.5 1.5 7.1 2.1 4.4- 4.9- -4.1 7.8 0.5 4.6 -9.1 -5.9 -5.7 0.3 2.9 5.4 14.4 15.2 15.1 0.8 1.1 9.3 -1.3 -0.4 -1.6 3.8 7.4 3.2 18.8 20.2 19.2 8.8 9.6 5.3 -1.7 -2.5 -2.5 9.5 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 8.1
7.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.3 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.7 8.4 4.6 5.2 15.8 8.1 12.3 3.3 7.4 5.4 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2 3.2 7.0 4.1 5.4 13.6 10.1 2.5 0.8 5.7 -4.6 -1.3 -1.8 3.1 5.8 4.3 3.7 5.2 4.0 1.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
4.2 3.0 6.3 6.3 6.6 1.6 0.8 9.6 10.3 15.8 8.5 7.1 8.3 2.2 19.3 17.7 19.1 2.8 2.3 Other
1.8 5.9 5.2 16.8 16.3 16.3 1.3 0.6 7.2 5.6 2.5 3.8 1.7 8.6 2.4 -8.0 -7.2 -7.7 3.3 3.2 1.1 100.2 97.7 91.3 0.2 5.8 4.6 105.1 103.0 103.9 2.6 3.2 7.6 6.6 10.6 4.5 3.5 0.3 6.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.2 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.8 3.45.2 2.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 4.9 -4.1 9.23.6 4.5 22.6 19.1 17.9 8.0 -4.5 2.31.8 4.0 4.7 5.7 6.0 2.5 4.0 3.14.0 4.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 6.8 4.5 4.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth5 -1 26.2 32.3 27 46
-42 3.8 3.8 95 503 42.9 24.3 72 75-2 1.9 3.9 7 21
0.911.1
3.75 1.2 GDP by Activity %-4.1 -5 74.0 72.0 80 54
Med -4.7 -13 8.4 14.9 22 43 24.6 21.0 60 63
17 0.4 0.6 19 371 -7.4 -8.5 28 54
1.3 GDP by Sector %3.75 6 24.8 18.0 86 83 6 4 3 23.0 26.2 16 35
Med 5.2 -13 52.1 54.3 41 391.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
2.91 3 14.1 24.9 21 17-4 17.1 28.0 14 21-3 15.4 40.4 14 132 16.3 4.0 76 783 16.2 7.7 72 80
1.4 Openness (% GDP)9 19.1 29.5 7 29
Rank % 1 26.4 35.1 21 21∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 10 45.5 63.8 8 211.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-1 3.5 3.7 4.1 15 Exports (2016)12 5.0 5.8 6.3 30 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United Arab Emirates 17.0 0.0 -18 29.0 25.0 37.0 6 #2 Partner Kenya 13.1 0.0 21 5.5 6.1 5.8 62 #3 Partner Italy 4.9 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts4 4.7 5.0 5.7 34
1.3 Infrastructure6 3.4 3.5 4.0 335 3.3 4.5 6.9 11
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-3 4.5 4.7 8.3 15 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-6 9.8 17.7 44.4 24 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-2 0.2 0.3 0.8 26 5 42.9 58.5 3.6 16.0 79
1.5 Health 1 16.8 20.7 2.3 57.9 2-1 52.7 59.2 73.6 11 2 50.1 53.3 0.6 65.6 2
-11 84.5 43.8 14.5 84 -4 4.3 4.1 -0.5 9.6 1Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 4.5 4.9 0.8 23.0 0
-4.5
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 0
2017-27
1
2017
2.8 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
3663
88858
5.217.30.3
43.9
40
29
27
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
5
18
30
39595228
96
3.76.1
34.0
45
5.55.7
3.56.4
16
18
24
5025
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
2651
External
91.3
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
6
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-4.1
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.1-5.35.7
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-4.5
3.8
REER91.3
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 6
8643729
19
24
Region
75
Real Rate
5
63.7
-1.3
30.4
05
73
Life expectancy (yrs) 12 4161.5
75
93
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
19
58.7
56.447.4
17Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
27
9117875
Remittances2
Imports G&S 2236.6
6.0
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.6
8.3
6.6
2018f4.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
40
Zambia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.1 5.8 3.2 -3.6 -4.4 -2.6 7.7 0.4 9.0 8.1- 5.7- -7.9 9.6 4.8 2.5 -0.3 -0.1 2.6 7.8 2.4 5.3 17.2 18.2 18.1 3.6 4.0 5.3 -2.7 -2.4 -2.5 7.2 1.2 9.3 25.4 24.0 26.0 9.6 6.6 5.8 -1.6 -2.9 -3.5 3.2 5.5 7.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 8.9
9.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
6.0 5.2 8.1 7.3 7.2 4.1 1.1 6.9 26.4 2.3 11.6 2.1 10.0 3.5 -0.1 2.0 1.7 9.8 0.6 7.1 24.9 0.1 8.7 1.7 6.2 3.7 4.5 2.9 4.6 7.5 10.0 0.0 10.1 17.9 6.3 1.4
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.0 1.6 8.5 7.7 9.3 3.8 1.0 9.3 9.7 14.3 9.3 5.5 7.6 4.2 40.4 36.7 37.8 8.1 2.3 Other
1.4 3.2 7.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 7.4 6.6 4.7 2.9 3.8 3.6 1.1 6.5 2.3 -9.3 -8.6 -9.9 2.7 3.9 8.6 92.7 90.1 99.3 4.5 4.7 0.6 84.1 84.9 92.6 8.0 7.9 0.2 0.4- 3.5- 3.0 0.5 0.9 4.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 7.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
4.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.6 3.25.5 7.4 1.6 1.7 2.1 6.8 -7.9 8.48.7 4.4 20.9 43.0 39.8 5.8 -2.6 6.26.5 6.8 4.0 3.6 3.0 8.0 6.3 2.64.2 3.9 -2.5 -2.1 -1.7 3.7 3.0 3.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth4.16 -3 24.5 32.3 26 42
-30 3.6 3.8 78 423 17.1 24.3 48 38-1 4.0 3.9 20 54
0.911.1
8.75 1.2 GDP by Activity %-7.9 -24 55.3 72.0 53 17
Med -4.7 14 21.8 14.9 78 9257 28.5 21.0 23 7516 1.2 0.6 42 74-26 -6.8 -8.5 58 58
1.3 GDP by Sector %5.83 -25 5.5 18.0 61 13 3 6.3 14 35.2 26.2 59 87
Med 5.2 -5 59.2 54.3 57 741.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
5.83 22 32.0 24.9 38 71-6 19.8 28.0 19 29-5 19.2 40.4 19 17
-18 0.5 4.0 35 17-9 3.1 7.7 25 10
1.4 Openness (% GDP)10 37.8 29.5 43 67
Rank % 22 44.7 35.1 36 75∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 18 82.5 63.8 38 751.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
9 3.5 3.9 4.1 27 Exports (2016)-2 6.1 6.1 6.3 42 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 31.3 0.0 2 37.0 38.0 37.0 53 #2 Partner India 10.4 0.0
-19 5.8 5.0 5.8 26 #3 Partner United Arab Emirates 5.7 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-20 5.7 5.3 5.7 37
1.3 Infrastructure6 3.4 3.6 4.0 34
-22 6.4 5.0 6.9 161.4 Human Capital and Innovation
-1 6.5 6.7 8.3 34 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-1 6.3 17.3 44.4 20 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-44 0.5 0.0 0.8 0 4 17.1 22.9 3.4 16.0 571.5 Health 1 41.8 46.7 1.2 57.9 24
4 45.4 58.1 73.6 9 0 52.7 55.3 0.5 65.6 6-4 92.0 55.8 14.5 93 -5 4.7 4.5 -0.4 9.6 3
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 5.5 5.9 0.6 23.0 1
-2.6
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 3
2017-27
23
2017
2.1 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
6475
713867
5.217.30.3
43.9
46
58
28
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
39
35
21
7450046
98
3.76.1
34.0
77
5.55.7
3.56.4
18
45
51
5542
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
6.3
Med 3.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
2347
External
99.3
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.6Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-7.9
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-7.0-1.07.2
Tourism2
Med 98.5
Med -5.5
Med 4.2
M2 Stock
-2.6
3.6
REER99.3
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3
93815931
74
61
Region
51
Real Rate
19
63.7
-1.3
30.4
69
53
Life expectancy (yrs) 4 3261.5
28
35
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
56
58.7
56.447.4
53Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
52
13141616
Remittances2
Imports G&S 5936.6
5.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum7.4
3.0
3.4
2018f4.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
41
CEMEA
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1
2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum12015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)7.5 5.0 6.0 -0.3 1.2 0.5 1.9 2.6 4.9 2.1- 1.2- -1.2 1.1
2.6 4.9 -2.9 -3.0 -4.0 5.1 9.6 2.6 39.6 39.0 39.3 0.6 5.6 8.5 4.4 5.0 4.7 0.7 3.2 5.3 40.9 39.7 40.0 4.3 4.4 9.3 -2.4 -2.6 -2.4 2.7 1.3 3.5 2.5 2.2 2.1 5.4 3.6 5.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 7.2 2.2 6.8 0.2 1.2 0.6 1.5
1.1 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.1 Price Indicators (%)
6.5 3.8 1.9 1.5 1.8 6.2 2.6 6.5 7.5 3.8 6.0 4.7 3.0 9.2 -0.6 -1.5 0.6 6.8 3.2 5.0 9.4 7.6 7.6 5.2
2.8 5.4 1.4 2.6 2.4 1.5 5.6 8.5 0.2- 0.1 2.5 4.2 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.9 8.3 2.0- 2.1- 2.4 4.7
3.5 2.5 58.8 62.0 67.3 0.7 6.3 6.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 9.2
5.7 2.3 56.8 56.2 58.7 1.7 3. Other
4.2 CPI 2.9 8.3 1.6 1.9 1.5 4.4 5.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 4.1 7.5 4.5 2.6 -59.9 -61.3 -67.4 1.4 4.4 9.3 93.8 93.3 97.4 3.0 2.9 1.3 101.2 102.0 103.6 0.0 6.1 8.1 1.1 0.5 -1.4 8.8
4.8 4.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 7.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score3.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.1 7.2
8.2 4.7 2.5 2.8 2.8 8.5 -1.2 1.02.5 4.3 41.0 34.2 32.9 0.6 0.5 2.3
3.6 5.9 5.7 6.0 5.9 2.2 2.5 4.62.6 6.0 -2.0 -0.6 -1.1 4.4 -1.4 9.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank # of 8CEMEA EM* Africa CIS E Asia LatAm 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 77.1 66.3 32.3 41.1 309.7 75.2 5-5 4.1 3.7 3.8 2.8 5.5 2.6 80 7.1 16.9 24.3 9.1 41.3 13.9 80 29.1 12.9 3.9 9.8 15.0 13.7 3-2 2.3 1.9 0.9 2.0 2.7 1.1 52 7.2 6.1 11.1 5.6 3.5 7.6 1
1.2 GDP by Activity %0 58.3 63.7 72.0 61.1 54.0 67.3 50 18.7 14.6 14.9 17.1 12.3 13.6 20 20.6 22.2 21.0 24.0 25.3 20.7 8-1 0.3 0.7 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.5 8-2 2.7 -1.3 -8.5 0.1 1.5 -4.1 4
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 3.4 8.3 18.0 11.4 9.6 7.1 6-1 30.3 30.4 26.2 32.3 35.8 28.1 50 66.2 58.7 54.3 54.4 53.2 62.2 2
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)0 39.5 25.3 24.9 66.2 18.2 24.5 31 69.2 56.4 28.0 35.5 136.4 50.0 3-1 59.4 47.4 40.4 28.8 129.7 41.8 50 1.5 3.9 4.0 6.5 1.9 7.4 7
2 6.6 7.1 7.7 22.3 8.7 6.8 31.4 Openness (% GDP)
0 Exports G&S 58.7 36.6 29.5 38.3 65.8 24.5 2Rank # of 8 -1 Imports G&S 58.1 39.9 35.1 48.3 54.4 29.2 2
∆Rank EM 1 115.0 74.4 63.8 85.2 123.1 56.1 11.1 Aggregate
00
1.2 Institutions005
1.3 Infrastructure0-3
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation Ave % Growth EM* Median Rank # of 81 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 0 7.1 6.6 -0.6 16.0 1.6 70 0 66.9 68.0 0.2 57.9 0.7 4
1.5 Health 1 65.8 63.0 -0.4 65.6 -0.1 60 -1 27.2 34.4 2.6 9.6 3.4 10 0 117.9 145.0 2.3 23.0 5.4 1
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank *EM median is the median of all EM countries and not the median of all regional medians2% C/A Receipts
0.5
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
CPI5
Demographic Forecasts
Population (mm)
Dependancy Ratio (retired)Retired/Child Ratio
18.52027
12.935.4
2017-27 2017
5
1
7
2
61.8 4
21.1 43.5 32.9
Urban Pop. (% total)
2011
4.36.3
47.55.65.7
4.87.1
10.3117.5
8.4
Total Trade
357
34
352
REER Imp. Cover (mths)Med 5.85 / Score 2.2
CA (% GDP)Med 0.45 / Score 1.9
EM*
4.16.3
2011
43
Med 97.4 / Score 3
Global Comp. Index (1-7) 4.4 4
2016 2016
3Ease of Business Index (1-10) 6.5
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Macro Risk scoresMacro Road Sign: Risk Time series
Growth
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real GDP (%) Current Acc. Fiscal Bal.4.1 Level Trade Bal. Budget Rev.
-1.2 Net FDI Dom. Cred GrowthNet Port. Flows M2 Growth
Level Exports G&S
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP) High
High Services Bal. Budget exp.Income Bal. Debt Interest
Qaility Transfers Bal. Primary bal.
Imp. Cover (mths) Fair-valued Remittances3
Net Ext. Flow2 CPI5
Currency PPICA Credits MM Rate
Real GDP (%)
Moderate Imports G&SREER 97.4 Broad Money
5.9 2.5 CA DebitsVulnerability Terms of Trade4
REER4
Real Rate
2018f momentumReal GDP (%) 3.4 4.3
-1.2Short term debt
Imp Cover (mths)External Low Domestic Moderate Capital Flight Real Rate6 -2.4 6.4
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
Real GDP (%)
Med 4.1 / Score 7.5
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Med -1.2 / Score 1.1
CPI
Med 2.5175 / Score 4.2
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high pressure). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Nominal GDP $Real GDP (%) 2.0
Gulf
9.4
Economic Structure
Median
3.1 0.1
67.9 54.911.7 19.2
5.3 4.3
7
4.9
2.9
62.2 160.6
-6.5 2.4
16.7 1.1
2
642
34
26.0
7.5
Competitiveness
55.8 96.94.1
47
55.1
15.5 46.4 33.7 2
M2 StockRemittances2
Tourism2
Corruption Perc. Index (1-100) 47.0 37.05.85.7
4.7 3Getting Electricity (1-10) 8.0 1
4.06.9
Infrastructure Index (1-7)
Contract Enforcement (1-10) 5.7Protecting minority investors 5.3
Patents (applications/mm pop) 8.1 2Internet users (% Pop) 121.8 4Education (ave yrs for pop>25) 10.6 38.3
113.80.8
32
2
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000) 4.9 7Life expectancy (yrs) 75.8 3
14.574.06.0
73.6 37
66.6
8
53
333
528
12
76.7
2.317.2
1031.1
3.0
Working Age Pop. (% total) 64.6
56.3 52.3 71.5
GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
44.116.223.8
5.5 54.3 51.24.2 -0.3 0.8
27.5 23.2
39.4 85.9
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
27.785.684.12.6
0.928.7 45.1
12.9
AgricultureIndustryServices
Net DebtDom Credit Stock
4.8
0.6 4.9
2.5 5.0
Private Con.
6.7164.7Population
∆Rank1 S Asia G10 2017
246.6 211.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Region Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
- 5.0 10.0
CEMEAAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmGulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
CEMEAAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmGulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
CEMEAAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmGulfG10EM
0.0 5.0 10.0
CEMEAAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmGulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
CEMEAAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmGulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
CEMEAAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmGulfG10EM
42
Bulgaria
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
7.0 1.7 6.8 0.0 5.3 3.2 2.0 0.1 8.5 2.8- 1.6 -0.9 5.3 1.8 6.5 -5.8 -2.0 -3.6 1.6 5.7 8.6 36.4 36.1 34.3 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.6 6.4 6.3 3.3 0.0 7.8 38.1 33.6 35.2 6.1 1.5 5.1 -4.5 -2.4 -2.4 1.6 2.4 4.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 2.4 6.4 6.3 3.6 3.3 3.0 7.3 0.1 9.2 0.9- 3.2 -0.2 6.9
5.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
7.8 4.3 5.2 0.8 1.6 7.4 3.7 8.1 2.2 4.2- 6.0 4.0 2.0 9.9 -0.8 -2.8 2.3 10.0 4.5 5.0 8.8 7.6 7.5 3.8 4.1 6.2 5.2 6.1 4.8 2.1 4.2 8.6 0.1- 0.8- 3.0 4.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.5 8.4 1.9- 3.1- 4.9 6.5 3.5 2.3 35.8 37.7 41.3 1.0 5.1 0.0 0.0
5.1 3.9 64.1 64.0 65.5 1.4 2.3 Other4.8 5.4 6.8 4.2 4.1 3.9 8.2 5.3 4.9 3.6 3.9 3.8 7.0
5.5 2.4 -35.8 -34.9 -39.4 3.2 4.6 8.1 97.5 97.1 99.7 4.5 3.1 1.4 98.3 100.1 103.3 1.3 4.4 8.2 0.1 0.8 -3.0 6.5 3.0 5.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 4.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
4.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.8 7.13.4 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 -0.9 4.13.6 3.6 38.7 34.2 30.3 0.3 3.2 2.83.5 6.0 9.3 9.9 9.5 1.9 3.0 4.58.6 4.4 5.5 -1.5 -0.5 3.1 -3.0 #####
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth4 -5 57.8 77.1 52 47
-8 3.8 4.1 59 40-5 7.1 7.1 36 534 20.7 29.1 65 20
14 2.3 2.3 44 4313 7.3 7.2 49 60
4.29 1.2 GDP by Activity %-0.9 -14 61.5 58.3 57 73
Med -1.2 -20 15.5 18.7 77 20-60 18.5 20.6 86 20-47 0.3 0.3 80 5062 4.2 2.7 11 67
1.3 GDP by Sector %6.66 -13 4.6 3.4 40 73 9.5 3 -6 28.2 30.3 43 27
Med 2.5 2 67.2 66.2 79 531.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
8 -49 22.2 39.5 92 10-23 54.3 69.2 66 130 0.1 59.4 6 7
-10 3.9 1.5 58 776.6
1.4 Openness (% GDP)15 65.5 58.7 68 60
Rank % -10 61.3 58.1 90 60∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 6 126.8 115.0 77 601.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
12 4.1 4.3 4.1 67 Exports (2016)6 6.9 7.4 6.3 82 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Germany 13.2 0.0 -1 41.0 41.0 37.0 62 #2 Partner Italy 10.5 0.0 12 6.4 6.7 5.8 78 #3 Partner Romania 9.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts15 6.3 7.3 5.7 90
1.3 Infrastructure20 3.1 3.7 4.0 38-23 6.6 5.5 6.9 22
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation1 10.2 10.6 8.3 85 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-9 45.0 55.5 44.4 67 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20273 3.6 6.9 0.8 81 -6 7.1 6.5 -0.8 16.0 27
1.5 Health -3 74.6 77.5 0.4 57.9 730 73.3 74.5 73.6 65 -13 65.0 62.8 -0.3 65.6 325 8.8 10.1 14.5 30 -5 32.0 36.7 1.5 9.6 95
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -5 146.1 163.0 1.2 23.0 95
3.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 100
2017-27
77
2017
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
3340
04787
10.671.58.1
4.9
66
75
17
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
46
84
77
50274078
24
4.46.5
47.0
80
5.75.3
4.78.0
54
75
63
137
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
3
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
4751
External
99.7
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
9.5
DomesticLow Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.9
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.72.22.1
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
3.2
3.8
REER99.7
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 9.5
56253275
37
42
Region
31
Real Rate
695862
63.7
-1.3
30.4
46100
33
Life expectancy (yrs) 64 2775.8
43
27
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
83
58.7
56.447.4
83Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
81
436
48Remittances2
Imports G&S 7936.6
4.0
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.6
4.7
5.8
2018f3.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
43
Croatia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
8.1 8.7 2.9 4.4 2.4 3.5 1.2 0.7 4.3 3.3- 0.9- -0.6 0.2 5.3 5.7 -15.7 -15.8 -16.2 4.7 0.0 8.8 44.3 46.2 45.2 0.4 2.0 1.9 17.9 18.6 19.4 0.1 3.5 1.3 47.6 47.1 45.8 1.6
10.0 3.9 -0.7 -3.3 -3.0 6.4 0.1 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.1 7.1 4.5 1.3 2.9 2.9 3.3 0.0 0.9 4.5 0.2 2.3 2.5 0.2
0.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.0 8.9 0.6 4.2 2.1 7.0 5.0 5.0 0.1 0.0 -1.9 3.7 1.2 8.2 0.3 -2.8 -0.3 3.3 4.7 7.2 5.2 4.7 7.7 7.2 1.6 7.2 5.0 6.6 5.6 0.9 3.7 9.0 0.5- 1.1- 1.4 4.1
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.5 9.3 3.8- 4.3- 2.0 5.3 3.0 1.3 27.4 29.1 32.6 0.1 5.6 5.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 8.6 3.6 2.3 48.2 49.0 50.6 0.2 2.3 Other
4.1 6.5 5.6 7.7 7.5 7.5 3.6 5.8 4.8 2.3 3.2 3.0 8.1 2.7 2.6 -25.2 -27.9 -30.7 3.2 5.4 9.1 95.1 95.4 98.6 3.6 4.5 2.5 101.2 101.7 104.4 0.9 4.6 8.5 1.7 2.0 -0.8 9.1 5.4 7.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 9.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.6 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.0 8.47.8 2.1 2.8 3.1 2.8 1.6 -0.6 0.64.5 6.0 26.5 25.4 27.5 2.3 3.5 2.97.3 2.5 7.9 7.2 8.0 2.0 1.4 4.80.0 4.6 -3.9 2.8 3.1 0.1 -0.8 8.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1.33 -10 55.0 77.1 56 40
18 3.0 4.1 17 13-1 4.2 7.1 22 33-4 25.5 29.1 80 2772 3.7 2.3 9 86-4 12.5 7.2 93 87
2.86 1.2 GDP by Activity %-0.6 1 57.7 58.3 33 47
Med -1.2 -1 19.5 18.7 85 67-37 20.3 20.6 70 40-66 -0.1 0.3 78 2132 2.6 2.7 39 47
1.3 GDP by Sector %2 -6 4.0 3.4 30 67
8 1.4 -6 26.3 30.3 35 13Med 2.5 3 69.8 66.2 87 87
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)7.33 -12 54.2 39.5 89 80
-7 80.0 69.2 78 730 89.1 59.4 83 1003 7.5 1.5 63 92-3 29.4 6.6 100 100
1.4 Openness (% GDP)27 50.6 58.7 48 40
Rank % 8 47.9 58.1 57 33∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 16 98.5 115.0 52 331.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-2 4.0 4.1 4.1 45 Exports (2016)23 6.3 7.3 6.3 78 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Italy 13.3 0.0 4 46.0 49.0 37.0 76 #2 Partner Germany 12.3 0.0
35 6.4 7.6 5.8 97 #3 Partner Austria 5.9 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts50 4.7 6.7 5.7 80
1.3 Infrastructure-4 5.1 4.6 4.0 75
-10 8.0 7.6 6.9 671.4 Human Capital and Innovation
-2 9.6 9.8 8.3 73 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-3 56.5 68.6 44.4 78 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-30 10.0 1.3 0.8 59 -2 4.2 4.0 -0.4 16.0 201.5 Health 2 59.6 63.4 0.6 57.9 54
2 75.9 77.1 73.6 86 -21 65.6 62.5 -0.5 65.6 29-4 5.1 3.8 14.5 9 1 30.1 38.0 2.6 9.6 98
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 2 134.3 173.0 2.9 23.0 100
3.5
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 98
2017-27
52
2017
-1.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
727
409360
10.671.58.1
4.9
61
29
79
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
77
75
81
1440790
13
4.46.5
47.0
33
5.75.3
4.78.0
48
54
71
4740
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.4
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
4635
External
98.6
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8
DomesticLow Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.6
High
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.62.01.6
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
3.5
3
REER98.6
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8
84311072
28
76
Region
21
Real Rate
768488
63.7
-1.3
30.4
5097
22
Life expectancy (yrs) 84 7375.8
34
23
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
69
58.7
56.447.4
76Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
91
71836697
Remittances2
Imports G&S 6636.6
5.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.0
5.0
8.1
2018f3.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
44
Czech Rep
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
8.4 2.7 6.4 0.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 2.3 6.8 0.6- 0.7 -0.1 1.2 1.0 8.3 4.1 5.3 4.4 1.7 9.0 3.8 41.0 40.2 40.4 3.3 0.4 5.3 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2 0.6 7.7 41.7 39.4 40.6 1.5 5.6 2.8 -5.5 -5.7 -5.1 2.0 2.9 2.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.0
10.0 5.4 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 8.7 2.4 7.0 0.3 1.5 0.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.4 6.6 -1.1 3.0 1.9 4.3 4.8 4.5 1.1 0.7 -0.2 1.5 7.4 1.3 2.3 3.9 1.1 4.1 3.5 6.9 8.4 6.6 8.9 6.7 0.0 7.3 -0.8 4.1 2.6 0.7 5.6 8.0 0.3 0.7 2.6 6.4
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.9 9.2 3.2- 3.3- 1.8 6.3 4.3 0.2 162.0 165.7 204.8 0.0 7.2 10.0 0.1- 0.6- -2.9 10.0 6.6 3.9 81.1 79.5 80.7 1.4 2.3 Other
6.4 2.1 9.8 1.7 1.9 1.3 3.4 2.2 7.0 5.4 2.5 4.5 8.4 4.6 0.2 -161.5 -163.6 -203.3 0.0 6.0 10.0 93.8 94.7 102.4 7.0 3.3 8.2 100.1 101.1 99.1 6.8 6.8 9.9 0.4- 1.3- -5.5 10.0 2.3 7.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 8.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
7.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.5 7.02.3 1.7 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.0 -0.1 1.52.1 8.2 87.2 76.9 86.7 2.1 0.7 1.70.1 0.1 5.5 7.3 9.5 0.0 2.6 5.84.7 9.6 3.4 4.0 -10.8 8.7 -5.5 9.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6 -7 215.7 77.1 79 73
41 4.5 4.1 23 60-4 10.6 7.1 46 730 37.2 29.1 89 87
26 2.8 2.3 40 64-15 3.0 7.2 26 7
1.43 1.2 GDP by Activity %-0.1 -6 47.7 58.3 16 0
Med -1.2 -8 19.2 18.7 92 60-2 25.5 20.6 74 930 1.2 0.3 59 649 6.4 2.7 73 87
1.3 GDP by Sector %6 4 2.5 3.4 9 13
9.5 2.6 11 37.8 30.3 72 87Med 2.5 -13 59.7 66.2 68 7
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)8.66 -13 27.1 39.5 65 20
-4 63.4 69.2 65 400 82.9 59.4 80 935 1.3 1.5 23 46-1 5.6 6.6 42 40
1.4 Openness (% GDP)12 80.7 58.7 80 80
Rank % 15 74.3 58.1 74 73∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 16 155.0 115.0 76 801.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4 4.6 4.7 4.1 88 Exports (2016)8 7.0 7.7 6.3 89 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Germany 31.3 0.0 6 49.0 55.0 37.0 82 #2 Partner Slovakia 8.0 0.0
-23 6.8 6.0 5.8 60 #3 Partner Poland 5.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts23 5.0 6.0 5.7 60
1.3 Infrastructure1 5.1 4.9 4.0 84
27 7.5 9.0 6.9 951.4 Human Capital and Innovation
0 12.8 12.3 8.3 100 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM1 64.4 79.7 44.4 91 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 18.4 19.4 0.8 94 -4 10.6 10.5 0.0 16.0 38
1.5 Health -2 73.0 73.8 0.1 57.9 691 77.2 78.3 73.6 91 -15 65.6 63.2 -0.4 65.6 35-3 3.1 2.9 14.5 6 -4 29.0 34.7 2.0 9.6 91
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 123.8 148.2 2.0 23.0 90
0.7
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 93
2017-27
71
2017
-5.2 4.9
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
8067
532720
10.671.58.1
4.9
84
36
83
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
66
100
90
100807393
9
4.46.5
47.0
20
5.75.3
4.78.0
83
80
76
7393
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.6
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
7266
External
102.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
9.5
DomesticLow Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.1
High
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.10.52.3
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
0.7
4.5
REER102.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 9.5
83725982
83
52
Region
42
Real Rate
896710
63.7
-1.3
30.4
5196
43
Life expectancy (yrs) 90 8075.8
9
13
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
93
58.7
56.447.4
93Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
55
61802841
Remittances2
Imports G&S 9036.6
4.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum3.6
5.0
6.0
2018f3.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
45
Estonia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
7.0 5.0 5.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 2.9 4.7 0.1 0.3
4.4 5.7 -4.2 -3.7 -4.3 3.1 4.9 6.6 40.3 40.3 39.2 5.3 6.8 6.3 8.2 7.6 7.2 8.1 4.9 4.1 40.2 40.1 39.3 4.9 4.6 3.6 -2.1 -1.9 -1.5 0.7 2.3 8.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.9 6.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.4 4.7 0.2 0.3
1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
2.1 2.5 -0.6 2.4 4.9 3.1 3.6 3.9 12.7 8.9 6.0 4.8 1.1 9.5 -2.7 -11.5 0.6 7.3 3.5 2.6 11.6 9.5 7.0 4.4 3.1 3.5 1.3 4.3 6.5 2.3 5.6 8.4 0.5- 0.1 4.2 6.3
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.4 8.9 2.0- 0.7- 3.6 6.3 4.0 2.9 19.4 20.2 22.0 2.2 6.2 7.4 0.1 0.3- -1.0 9.2 4.9 5.2 78.6 78.7 78.4 4.1 2.3 Other
6.3 4.5 4.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.3 5.2 6.1 1.7 2.1 4.4 7.0 4.2 3.2 -18.9 -19.8 -21.6 3.0 4.1 8.6 93.8 92.7 97.4 3.4 3.8 6.3 115.4 117.8 115.3 0.4 5.9 8.6 0.6 0.4- -5.2 8.9 4.8 5.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 5.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.4 6.76.9 5.2 34.0 43.7 44.6 8.0 5.6
1.6 3.25.2 5.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 7.8 4.2 5.34.1 5.1 -4.4 -3.5 -3.6 7.3 -5.2 8.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth5.33 -8 25.9 77.1 33 7
61 4.4 4.1 0 53-1 1.3 7.1 4 70 31.6 29.1 85 67
46 2.2 2.3 7 3612 6.0 7.2 34 33
#### 1.2 GDP by Activity %-6 50.7 58.3 25 20
Med -1.2 1 20.4 18.7 88 80-12 24.8 20.6 78 8757 1.3 0.3 6 7921 2.8 2.7 51 53
1.3 GDP by Sector %8 -1 2.5 3.4 14 13
0.2 4.2 1 29.1 30.3 42 40Med 2.5 -4 68.4 66.2 89 73
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)4 39.5
-8 92.4 69.2 91 932 65.2 59.4 66 73-4 0.2 1.5 14 8
6.61.4 Openness (% GDP)
5 78.4 58.7 85 67Rank % 5 74.8 58.1 85 80
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 2 153.2 115.0 89 671.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
2 4.6 4.7 4.1 89 Exports (2016)5 7.6 8.1 6.3 98 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Sweden 16.3 0.0 5 64.0 70.0 37.0 96 #2 Partner Finland 14.8 0.0 8 6.9 7.5 5.8 95 #3 Partner United States 7.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts2 5.7 6.0 5.7 60
1.3 Infrastructure2 5.5 5.0 4.0 905 8.0 8.3 6.9 84
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation1 11.9 12.0 8.3 98 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM2 72.4 84.2 44.4 95 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 34.5 22.4 0.8 95 -1 1.3 1.3 -0.3 16.0 2
1.5 Health -4 67.4 67.7 0.0 57.9 619 74.0 76.4 73.6 80 -9 64.2 61.7 -0.4 65.6 24-6 4.4 2.7 14.5 5 -2 30.3 36.7 2.1 9.6 96
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 118.8 145.2 2.2 23.0 89
1.6
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 91
2017-27
65
2017
-4.1 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
87100
938720
10.671.58.1
4.9
86
58
88
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
78
97
93
93938096
11
4.46.5
47.0
13
5.75.3
4.78.0
87
92
90
9380
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.2
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
2563
External
97.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
0.2
DomesticModerate #VALUE!
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.4Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Moderate
Qaility#VALUE!
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.51.73.1
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
1.6
4.4
REER97.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 0.2
89666573
43
Region
3
Real Rate
855547
63.7
-1.3
30.4
3498
3
Life expectancy (yrs) 70 6075.8
19
13
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
91
58.7
56.447.4
91Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
85
826810Remittances2
Imports G&S 9136.6
3.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.4
4.9
2018f3.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
46
Hungary
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
8.6 1.0 8.6 3.4 6.1 3.8 1.9 4.7 7.1 2.0- 1.9- -2.5 2.2 4.5 8.2 4.0 4.2 2.9 3.7 10.0 0.3 48.3 44.9 47.8 0.4 0.1 9.7 4.9 6.0 5.1 1.2 0.0 9.9 50.3 46.7 50.3 8.6 0.3 6.2 -4.4 -2.4 -2.7 0.8 0.9 3.8 3.5 2.8 2.6 0.1 9.4 3.9 -1.1 -1.6 -1.5 9.6 6.3 7.4 1.5 0.9 0.1 8.8
2.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.7 6.0 2.1 1.9 1.5 5.7 5.7 8.1 1.4 2.9 10.0 8.3 6.2 8.8 -4.4 -3.3 0.4 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.5 9.9 12.9 9.7 1.1 9.0 5.5 8.0 5.3 2.2 5.8 9.0 0.1- 0.4 2.5 3.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.1 9.9 1.0- 1.6- 3.3 6.8 4.0 2.5 124.7 129.1 138.9 1.8 7.4 8.7 1.7 0.8 -0.6 9.9 5.8 3.4 90.4 89.6 91.0 0.8 2.3 Other
3.6 5.7 7.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.4 3.8 6.7 3.3 2.1 3.8 8.6 4.8 2.3 -120.5 -121.4 -133.7 4.1 6.8 5.4 91.1 93.9 94.5 2.1 3.9 5.0 97.5 97.9 98.0 7.6 6.9 9.2 1.8 0.4 -3.1 10.0 3.1 7.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 8.8 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
2.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.8 7.89.9 8.1 2.0 2.8 3.2 9.9 -2.5 3.37.4 4.3 41.0 50.6 48.1 5.0 3.8 3.48.3 5.8 4.0 3.1 2.9 9.3 2.5 4.84.2 1.3 -22.3 -19.8 -6.9 5.3 -3.1 9.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth4 -4 137.0 77.1 67 60
42 3.8 4.1 7 40-4 9.7 7.1 44 67-1 28.8 29.1 82 477 2.3 2.3 51 43
-35 4.3 7.2 67 207.86 1.2 GDP by Activity %
-2.5 -6 50.5 58.3 24 13Med -1.2 -8 20.1 18.7 95 73
-2 21.5 20.6 43 67-40 -1.1 0.3 44 022 9.0 2.7 68 100
1.3 GDP by Sector %4.66 1 3.9 3.4 21 60 2.9 2.5 6 31.0 30.3 46 53
Med 2.5 -7 65.1 66.2 85 471.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
0.66 -6 81.6 39.5 95 100-25 60.5 69.2 81 33-6 61.5 59.4 71 67-2 0.3 1.5 13 15
6.61.4 Openness (% GDP)
1 91.0 58.7 94 93Rank % 3 82.1 58.1 92 93
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -1 173.1 115.0 96 931.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-15 4.3 4.2 4.1 58 Exports (2016)12 6.7 7.3 6.3 79 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Germany 26.8 0.0 -10 55.0 48.0 37.0 73 #2 Partner United States 5.2 0.0 6 6.8 7.2 5.8 89 #3 Partner Italy 4.9 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
18 4.3 5.5 5.7 451.3 Infrastructure
5 4.8 4.7 4.0 788 6.1 6.3 6.9 38
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation0 11.5 11.7 8.3 93 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM1 61.8 76.1 44.4 89 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20272 22.8 24.8 0.8 96 -4 9.7 9.4 -0.4 16.0 36
1.5 Health 1 72.1 75.9 0.5 57.9 712 74.0 75.3 73.6 73 -21 67.1 64.3 -0.4 65.6 46-2 5.4 5.2 14.5 13 -2 27.7 34.0 2.3 9.6 90
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -4 129.8 158.5 2.2 23.0 93
3.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 97
2017-27
70
2017
-3.4 4.9
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
2033
27737
10.671.58.1
4.9
83
26
73
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
29
93
88
71738794
14
4.46.5
47.0
53
5.75.3
4.78.0
73
67
84
5320
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.5
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
6351
External
94.5
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
2.9
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.5
High
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.72.82.8
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
3.8
3.8
REER94.5
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 2.9
86412
91
53
89
Region
40
Real Rate
815831
63.7
-1.3
30.4
6793
40
Life expectancy (yrs) 71 4775.8
18
22
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
95
58.7
56.447.4
95Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
78
566411Remittances2
Imports G&S 9536.6
5.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.7
5.7
6.6
2018f3.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
47
Iceland
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
7.1 3.6 6.0 5.3 8.0 6.1 1.6 0.0 9.7 0.8- 17.0 1.0 3.5 7.5 5.9 -1.6 -4.1 -4.9 8.2 0.0 10.0 41.7 57.8 42.0 6.0 1.6 5.5 9.0 10.7 10.5 0.3 3.8 5.2 42.5 40.8 41.0 1.3 3.2 5.4 -0.4 2.1 1.5 0.9 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.3 3.1 6.5 0.0 6.3 -1.7 -0.7 -0.9 7.3 0.0 9.7 2.9 20.4 4.1 3.3
3.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.1 4.9 4.1 3.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 9.7 3.4 0.1 19.7 9.8 0.0 5.3 206.4 -8.9 -1.7 5.1 5.2 8.0 0.1- 1.3 21.8 6.1 4.7 5.2 9.5 11.6 10.6 2.8 5.1 3.4 1.6 1.7 0.3 0.9
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 1.5 5.4 5.1 8.1- -6.8 1.1 2.7 0.9 10.0 11.0 13.1 0.1 5.5 4.9 4.8 4.3 4.4 6.7 9.1 5.0 53.3 48.5 48.5 5.9 2.3 Other
0.9 7.5 2.8 4.3 7.4 4.7 7.1 4.4 1.3 -9.1 -9.4 -11.6 0.5 8.6 8.5 104.3 117.1 130.1 9.8 7.5 9.7 99.7 95.6 84.3 10.0 5.5 3.6 3.2 2.6 4.1 2.3 1.2 6.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 2.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.7 7.03.4 9.0 1.5 1.1 1.8 4.4 1.0 3.13.7 5.0 226.4 22.3 24.0 0.4 6.1 2.23.2 7.4 7.8 10.1 7.0 7.7 0.3 2.8
4.1 4.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth8 -1 24.5 77.1 25 0
57 4.7 4.1 13 800 0.3 7.1 1 01 54.5 29.1 94 100
2.3-7 2.2 7.2 11 0
0 1.2 GDP by Activity %1 -8 50.0 58.3 22 7
Med -1.2 -3 22.6 18.7 99 100-10 21.8 20.6 55 73-13 0.1 0.3 28 2922 5.5 2.7 56 80
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 7 5.7 3.4 29 87
7 0.3 -11 19.5 30.3 22 0Med 2.5 1 74.8 66.2 95 93
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)10 -14 77.6 39.5 100 90
-13 109.5 69.2 100 100-37 45.7 59.4 84 20
1.56.6
1.4 Openness (% GDP)18 48.5 58.7 54 33
Rank % 2 43.0 58.1 53 20∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 14 91.5 115.0 51 271.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
1 4.7 4.8 4.1 90 Exports (2016)-4 8.2 7.9 6.3 95 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Netherlands 42.3 0.0 0 82.0 78.0 37.0 99 #2 Partner United Kingdom 12.1 0.0
-15 8.2 6.9 5.8 84 #3 Partner United States 8.1 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts27 5.7 7.0 5.7 86
1.3 Infrastructure-1 6.6 6.0 4.0 97-3 9.4 9.2 6.9 97
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 10.1 10.4 8.3 82 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM0 93.5 98.2 44.4 100 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-39 96.8 1.2 0.8 58 0 0.3 0.4 0.7 16.0 11.5 Health 0 94.3 95.1 0.1 57.9 95
0 81.6 83.1 73.6 99 -16 65.5 62.8 -0.4 65.6 33-5 1.9 1.6 14.5 0 -1 22.0 29.8 3.5 9.6 82
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -1 71.8 101.6 4.2 23.0 78
6.1
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 79
2017-27
95
2017
2.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
9387
1006067
10.671.58.1
4.9
99
58
98
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
100
83
100
36100
098
6
4.46.5
47.0
0
5.75.3
4.78.0
89
99
99
100100
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.3
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
2471
External
130.1
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
1
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
1.66.22.4
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
6.1
4.7
REER130.1
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 7
96451579
11
85
Region
1
Real Rate
95
4
63.7
-1.3
30.4
4983
1
Life expectancy (yrs) 99 10075.8
14
36
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
66
58.7
56.447.4
73Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
96
8646
Remittances2
Imports G&S 5536.6
8.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.2
4.7
4.9
2018f3.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
48
Israel
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
4.5 8.0 6.6 5.2 3.8 3.1 4.8 5.1 2.6 2.1- 2.2- -1.3 1.2 7.9 5.5 -1.1 -2.3 -2.5 6.5 1.7 2.1 25.2 26.3 27.4 1.1 2.9 5.8 4.1 4.4 4.3 1.3 10.0 6.4 27.3 28.5 28.7 7.8 6.5 4.5 -0.9 -1.2 -1.1 3.0 1.0 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.4 0.4 6.9 10.0 3.0 2.9 2.4 10.0 5.5 2.8 0.5 0.3 1.1 2.9
1.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
6.4 3.1 0.1 -0.4 0.3 7.1 5.8 5.0 2.2 3.4 3.5 2.9 7.5 5.0 -0.6 0.7 0.7 9.3 3.4 3.3 13.2 10.3 7.5 2.5 9.0 5.1 5.3 3.4 3.4 6.9 5.2 7.0 0.6- 0.5- 0.3 2.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.2 7.6 5.9- 3.6- 1.5 5.2 3.9 2.5 116.1 118.7 124.7 0.7 6.0 4.4 0.3 0.0- 0.1 8.1 7.0 6.5 31.3 30.3 29.5 9.5 2.3 Other
2.0 0.2 5.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.2 7.3 4.4 2.6 4.0 3.6 4.5 3.0 2.6 -100.6 -106.7 -113.5 0.9 6.6 7.1 104.5 106.7 109.6 9.8 3.8 5.4 111.9 113.8 113.3 0.4 5.6 6.2 0.9 0.5 -0.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.6 6.56.4 3.5 1.9 2.0 1.9 4.3 -1.3 2.06.1 3.3 16.7 18.4 16.1 2.2 3.1 2.45.2 1.9 12.9 12.8 14.4 0.4 0.3 3.55.8 1.5 -5.3 -7.6 3.5 1.5 -0.2 6.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth3.33 5 354.3 77.1 77 87
16 3.6 4.1 30 33-1 8.7 7.1 35 603 39.2 29.1 88 935 1.0 2.3 24 21
-30 4.2 7.2 60 135.72 1.2 GDP by Activity %
-1.3 -2 55.5 58.3 31 40Med -1.2 -4 22.1 18.7 98 93
9 20.8 20.6 26 539 0.2 0.3 14 437 1.4 2.7 61 40
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 0 2.4 3.4 12 7
14.4 0.3 -21 26.5 30.3 55 20Med 2.5 10 69.5 66.2 78 80
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)9.33 -46 -6.5 39.5 57 0
-16 80.3 69.2 88 801 61.2 59.4 62 600 0.8 1.5 20 316 4.8 6.6 28 20
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-9 29.5 58.7 49 13
Rank % -12 28.1 58.1 41 13∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -8 57.6 115.0 44 131.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-2 4.9 5.0 4.1 92 Exports (2016)-16 7.3 7.2 6.3 72 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 36.5 0.0 5 60.0 64.0 37.0 93 #2 Partner Netherlands 8.2 0.0
16 5.3 5.8 5.8 48 #3 Partner China 5.3 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-2 8.0 7.5 5.7 93
1.3 Infrastructure-10 4.9 4.3 4.0 6412 7.1 7.5 6.9 65
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation0 11.9 11.9 8.3 97 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM3 51.6 71.5 44.4 82 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 235.5 240.0 0.8 100 2 8.7 10.0 1.5 16.0 37
1.5 Health -1 92.3 92.9 0.1 57.9 93-1 81.0 82.1 73.6 97 -4 60.4 60.6 0.0 65.6 17-3 3.6 3.2 14.5 7 -7 19.4 22.1 1.4 9.6 71
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -3 42.1 51.6 2.3 23.0 65
3.1
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 68
2017-27
94
2017
-0.9 4.9
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
10013
871393
10.671.58.1
4.9
32
96
74
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
53
97
79
8647
100100
10
4.46.5
47.0
27
5.75.3
4.78.0
94
88
87
2733
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.3
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
8247
External
109.6
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
14.4
DomesticModerate Low
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.6Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1.3
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.04.01.0
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
3.1
3.6
REER109.6
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 14.4
94352369
33
9
Region
34
Real Rate
912929
63.7
-1.3
30.4
2179
35
Life expectancy (yrs) 98 9375.8
29
12
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
35
58.7
56.447.4
40Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
88
72632034
Remittances2
Imports G&S 2836.6
7.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.8
7.2
2.8
2018f4.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
49
Latvia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
7.4 4.0 5.6 -0.5 1.4 0.2 3.2 3.2 6.1 1.2- 0.0 -0.7 2.2 3.5 6.1 -9.0 -7.7 -8.7 2.3 4.1 2.1 37.2 37.4 38.0 0.8 4.4 5.8 8.5 8.6 8.5 1.6 3.7 6.8 38.4 37.4 38.7 4.4 4.7 5.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 5.3 1.8 6.9 1.3 1.0 1.2 4.3 4.2 5.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 8.1 3.5 5.9 0.1 1.1 0.5 2.2
2.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.0 1.8 2.6 0.0 1.9 6.2 3.5 5.7 11.0 1.4 5.5 5.9 9.4 8.4 -12.6 -6.7 -2.3 5.7 4.2 7.4 9.4 7.0 12.8 9.1 5.5 4.5 2.1 1.4 2.1 3.1 5.0 6.7 0.2 0.2 2.3 4.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.2 7.6 0.9- 2.4- 2.1 4.0 4.5 3.2 18.8 19.1 20.2 2.3 6.2 7.4 0.1 0.3- -1.0 9.2 5.2 5.0 60.4 60.2 60.2 2.3 2.3 Other
4.0 5.4 6.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 7.1 4.3 6.8 2.8 1.4 4.9 7.4 5.1 3.7 -18.9 -18.7 -20.1 4.3 4.1 8.6 93.8 92.7 97.4 3.4 2.4 2.3 100.5 102.4 103.9 0.1 5.3 7.3 0.0- 0.4- -3.3 6.1 3.9 5.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 6.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.9 7.05.7 7.0 3.7 3.9 4.4 9.7 -0.7 2.8
0.2 3.64.8 5.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 8.7 2.3 5.07.1 6.3 2.6 -0.4 -2.1 5.5 -3.3 8.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth8.66 -13 30.4 77.1 43 13
70 4.9 4.1 1 87-6 2.0 7.1 11 1312 20.1 29.1 54 1376 4.4 2.3 15 1005 8.8 7.2 64 67
3.58 1.2 GDP by Activity %-0.7 11 61.7 58.3 32 80
Med -1.2 -22 17.9 18.7 93 33-52 20.3 20.6 84 40
0.3 73
33 0.1 2.7 25 271.3 GDP by Sector %
4 0 3.1 3.4 18 40 2.4 2.3 -10 21.3 30.3 25 7
Med 2.5 1 75.5 66.2 96 1001.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
4 39.5 97
-34 56.4 69.2 84 273 51.7 59.4 48 27-6 3.0 1.5 48 62
6.61.4 Openness (% GDP)
30 60.2 58.7 50 53Rank % 9 60.0 58.1 69 53
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 17 120.2 115.0 61 531.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
20 4.1 4.5 4.1 76 Exports (2016)2 7.7 8.1 6.3 97 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United Kingdom 7.6 0.0 7 49.0 57.0 37.0 83 #2 Partner Germany 7.0 0.0 -7 7.6 7.2 5.8 88 #3 Partner Sweden 5.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts12 5.7 6.3 5.7 70
1.3 Infrastructure10 4.7 4.8 4.0 824 8.0 8.2 6.9 80
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation2 10.8 11.5 8.3 91 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-3 66.8 75.8 44.4 88 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 12.5 13.8 0.8 92 -1 2.0 1.8 -0.5 16.0 4
1.5 Health -2 67.4 68.2 0.1 57.9 620 72.2 74.0 73.6 55 -18 64.8 62.1 -0.4 65.6 27-2 7.9 7.4 14.5 22 -2 30.5 36.9 2.1 9.6 97
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -4 128.2 152.6 1.9 23.0 91
0.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 96
2017-27
64
2017
-3.8 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
6093
606747
10.671.58.1
4.9
96
58
71
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
76
89
91
64676792
23
4.46.5
47.0
73
5.75.3
4.78.0
56
95
76
6073
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.3
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
2973
External
97.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
2.4
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.9Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.7
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.20.62.8
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
0.2
4.9
REER97.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 2.4
7031
59
15
Region
5
Real Rate
679369
63.7
-1.3
30.4
4599
5
Life expectancy (yrs) 54 775.8
44
18
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
79
58.7
56.447.4
81Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
97
495241Remittances2
Imports G&S 7836.6
5.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.0
5.8
4.8
2018f3.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
50
Lithuania
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.8 3.9 4.8 -2.8 -1.1 -0.8 3.3 4.4 5.2 0.2- 0.3 0.1 1.4 4.2 7.2 -5.3 -4.6 -6.5 5.1 5.8 0.3 34.6 34.5 36.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 4.7 5.8 6.8 0.1 4.2 7.0 34.9 34.2 36.0 3.1 4.8 3.4 -4.1 -4.0 -3.0 5.8 2.5 3.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 3.0 6.5 3.9 2.0 1.7 1.9 4.1 4.6 5.4 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5
1.4 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
7.8 3.4 1.9 0.4 1.2 6.0 4.6 2.4 21.9 20.7 11.2 5.7 0.0 9.3 4.8 -5.7 1.7 7.2 0.3 4.1 33.1 7.3 3.8 3.0 4.9 3.9 -0.9 -0.8 0.4 3.1 6.6 7.1 0.7- 0.7 2.5 4.3
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.5 6.7 9.6- 4.3- 2.2 5.1 4.8 1.7 33.9 34.2 40.0 1.6 6.2 7.4 0.1 0.3- -1.0 9.2 5.8 2.4 75.8 74.5 79.0 2.2 2.3 Other
4.3 4.5 7.3 3.8 3.9 3.4 8.3 5.1 5.5 2.0 2.3 3.5 5.8 5.2 2.3 -35.1 -34.7 -40.4 1.7 4.1 8.6 93.8 92.7 97.4 3.4 3.2 4.1 102.4 103.2 103.6 0.4 7.2 8.0 0.8 0.9- -3.5 8.0 3.5 7.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 7.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.5 6.31.2 14.4 10.0 0.1 1.3
-0.8 3.63.6 4.6 0.6 1.0 1.1 9.3 2.5 5.30.4 5.5 -7.2 -0.6 -1.1 6.0 -3.5 9.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth2.66 -7 47.3 77.1 49 27
18 3.5 4.1 25 27-3 2.9 7.1 16 273 31.4 29.1 81 60
-12 2.6 2.3 78 5718 7.2 7.2 40 53
0.72 1.2 GDP by Activity %0.1 -2 65.0 58.3 55 87
Med -1.2 -25 16.8 18.7 90 27-35 18.5 20.6 61 20-48 -0.5 0.3 54 1428 0.2 2.7 32 33
1.3 GDP by Sector %5.33 0 3.3 3.4 19 47 1.1 2.5 -14 28.5 30.3 54 33
Med 2.5 3 68.2 66.2 81 671.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
4 39.5 87
-5 72.0 69.2 71 537 58.6 59.4 54 47
-11 3.4 1.5 55 696.6
1.4 Openness (% GDP)16 79.0 58.7 75 73
Rank % 10 78.7 58.1 82 87∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 15 157.7 115.0 78 871.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
7 4.4 4.5 4.1 83 Exports (2016)3 7.4 7.9 6.3 93 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Germany 8.7 0.0 2 54.0 59.0 37.0 85 #2 Partner Poland 6.7 0.0 5 7.3 7.8 5.8 98 #3 Partner Spain 6.1 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts9 5.7 6.2 5.7 67
1.3 Infrastructure8 5.1 4.9 4.0 89
31 6.5 8.0 6.9 731.4 Human Capital and Innovation
-1 10.8 10.9 8.3 88 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-1 59.8 72.1 44.4 84 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-17 6.2 1.8 0.8 67 -3 2.9 2.7 -0.5 16.0 101.5 Health -1 66.5 67.7 0.2 57.9 60
10 71.8 74.2 73.6 58 -35 66.2 61.6 -0.7 65.6 22-7 6.1 4.0 14.5 10 0 28.7 35.8 2.5 9.6 94
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -7 128.2 135.8 0.6 23.0 87
-0.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 95
2017-27
61
2017
-4.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
7380
6710040
10.671.58.1
4.9
92
58
80
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
41
89
86
57601384
18
4.46.5
47.0
40
5.75.3
4.78.0
76
90
83
8753
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.5
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
4244
External
97.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
1.1
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityHigh
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
0.1
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
0.6-0.33.0
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
-0.8
3.5
REER97.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 1.1
64255
61
39
Region
13
Real Rate
846559
63.7
-1.3
30.4
5994
13
Life expectancy (yrs) 48 1375.8
53
19
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
94
58.7
56.447.4
92Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
84
656143Remittances2
Imports G&S 9336.6
5.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.0
4.3
4.7
2018f3.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
51
Poland
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
7.4 4.3 5.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.7 4.6 6.9 2.6- 2.5- -3.3 3.2 4.6 6.5 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.5 5.9 2.5 38.9 38.7 39.4 4.0 0.4 4.1 2.5 3.3 3.4 0.1 3.4 9.5 41.6 41.2 42.7 3.4 8.1 2.6 -3.4 -4.0 -3.6 8.3 4.1 5.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 0.5 6.9 4.6 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 9.0 4.7 7.0 0.9- 0.8- -1.6 4.2
3.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
8.0 4.0 2.1 1.2 1.5 7.3 4.8 5.6 7.7 6.9 9.3 4.0 8.8 5.8 -2.4 -0.3 0.1 5.1 5.0 5.8 9.6 9.7 10.7 5.5 6.6 4.3 1.6 0.9 1.2 0.8 5.7 9.5 0.9- 0.7- 1.5 3.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 7.6 7.4 2.1- 0.1- 1.9 5.4 3.7 0.8 255.1 265.0 303.9 0.2 7.8 6.7 2.3 1.4 0.9 9.8 0.1 0.0 49.5 52.3 57.2 0.0 2.3 Other
3.8 2.6 6.0 1.6 1.8 1.7 8.6 2.9 8.4 3.8 2.9 4.6 7.4 4.1 1.3 -257.8 -266.4 -305.6 0.3 3.5 8.9 92.5 89.9 97.2 3.4 3.0 4.1 102.1 103.1 103.6 0.4 7.6 9.5 3.2 2.1 -0.6 8.9 7.8 9.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 10.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.6 5.22.9 7.6 3.2 2.8 3.3 6.8 -3.3 3.52.4 5.8 51.2 42.0 44.2 1.6 -0.3 1.71.8 8.4 5.1 6.0 5.0 5.5 1.5 5.80.9 6.7 -47.9 -2.2 -18.9 6.4 -0.6 9.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth7.33 -3 516.0 77.1 92 93
23 4.6 4.1 45 73-2 38.3 7.1 74 875 29.5 29.1 78 53
42 3.4 2.3 38 79-29 6.9 7.2 81 40
9.29 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.3 -6 59.0 58.3 46 60
Med -1.2 -13 18.2 18.7 86 40-24 17.5 20.6 42 010 0.8 0.3 45 5730 4.5 2.7 46 73
1.3 GDP by Sector %3.33 1 2.6 3.4 15 27 5 1.5 32 40.8 30.3 57 93
Med 2.5 -8 63.8 66.2 80 331.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
3.33 0 48.4 39.5 72 601 79.1 69.2 68 675 71.6 59.4 69 87
-18 1.7 1.5 52 546.6
1.4 Openness (% GDP)32 57.2 58.7 47 47
Rank % 17 52.5 58.1 52 40∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 28 109.7 115.0 47 471.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-2 4.5 4.5 4.1 78 Exports (2016)5 7.2 7.8 6.3 91 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Germany 27.4 0.0 5 58.0 62.0 37.0 91 #2 Partner Czech Republic 6.9 0.0 2 6.5 6.3 5.8 71 #3 Partner United Kingdom 6.2 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts1 6.0 6.3 5.7 70
1.3 Infrastructure30 3.4 4.1 4.0 5643 6.1 8.1 6.9 77
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 9.8 10.0 8.3 76 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-8 59.0 66.6 44.4 76 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20275 5.8 8.6 0.8 87 -4 38.3 37.0 -0.2 16.0 67
1.5 Health -4 60.5 61.8 0.2 57.9 502 75.5 76.8 73.6 83 -30 68.4 64.3 -0.6 65.6 45-4 5.8 4.5 14.5 11 3 24.5 34.8 4.2 9.6 93
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 8 113.1 167.5 4.8 23.0 98
-0.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 89
2017-27
54
2017
-1.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
6773
804047
10.671.58.1
4.9
68
68
24
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
33
77
84
21335382
16
4.46.5
47.0
47
5.75.3
4.78.0
80
86
86
2067
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.5
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
8969
External
97.2
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.6Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.3
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.6-0.72.4
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
-0.3
4.6
REER97.2
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5
73175577
89
72
Region
72
Real Rate
838251
63.7
-1.3
30.4
7689
71
Life expectancy (yrs) 81 6775.8
40
16
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
76
58.7
56.447.4
80Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
72
697534Remittances2
Imports G&S 7036.6
7.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum2.3
5.7
6.2
2018f3.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
52
Romania
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
8.7 6.5 5.9 -1.2 -2.3 -2.9 3.0 7.3 6.5 1.5- 2.4- -3.0 3.9 5.9 5.8 -4.9 -5.5 -6.0 3.2 10.0 3.8 32.8 29.4 29.8 9.5 3.9 7.3 4.2 4.5 4.1 1.1 0.5 7.2 34.3 31.8 32.8 1.3 7.8 2.1 -2.4 -2.9 -2.3 6.7 4.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.1 7.2 5.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 8.6 7.3 6.9 0.1- 1.1- -1.9 4.7
3.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.8 4.8 1.9 2.3 2.4 5.9 3.3 7.1 5.6 3.0- 4.6 3.4 4.9 6.8 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 5.6 5.2 8.1 9.4 9.8 15.0 6.7 5.9 6.1 0.6 0.0 -0.5 2.7 3.0 9.5 0.6- 1.6- 1.5 2.3
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 5.4 8.9 2.2- 1.8- 3.6 5.0 3.5 1.6 81.9 86.4 97.1 0.3 6.4 3.4 2.1 0.8 2.3 8.4 4.6 3.2 41.1 41.4 42.4 1.0 2.3 Other
2.3 4.1 5.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 1.4 5.6 6.6 3.9 4.8 7.2 8.7 3.4 1.9 -84.0 -90.7 -103.2 0.2 2.3 7.3 96.1 94.5 95.8 1.1 4.1 1.9 101.3 101.5 102.2 0.1 5.3 6.3 2.7 2.4 0.9 7.2 5.7 6.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 8.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 7.2 7.86.8 6.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 9.7 -3.0 5.05.0 5.3 32.1 32.2 32.9 2.9 -2.9 4.25.6 5.6 6.3 6.0 5.8 8.9 1.5 5.51.7 8.5 0.3 3.1 0.0 6.0 0.9 9.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth10 -7 211.4 77.1 75 67
10 7.2 4.1 83 100-3 19.7 7.1 58 805 25.8 29.1 73 40-5 4.1 2.3 93 93-9 4.9 7.2 44 27
8.58 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3 -5 69.0 58.3 69 93
Med -1.2 0 7.5 18.7 5 0-43 22.5 20.6 96 8074 2.1 0.3 0 9327 -1.1 2.7 23 13
1.3 GDP by Sector %2.66 -7 4.9 3.4 38 80 5.8 1.5 -10 33.5 30.3 76 73
Med 2.5 16 63.4 66.2 53 271.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
2 -16 27.7 39.5 70 30-28 31.7 69.2 52 7-5 42.2 59.4 43 136 3.9 1.5 43 85
-10 3.0 6.6 19 01.4 Openness (% GDP)
29 42.4 58.7 27 20Rank % 7 43.5 58.1 49 27
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 26 85.9 115.0 31 201.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
9 4.2 4.3 4.1 68 Exports (2016)20 6.5 7.4 6.3 85 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Germany 20.6 0.0 6 44.0 48.0 37.0 73 #2 Partner Italy 10.8 0.0
15 6.6 7.2 5.8 90 #3 Partner France 6.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts2 5.7 6.0 5.7 60
1.3 Infrastructure28 2.4 3.6 4.0 3512 3.5 5.3 6.9 20
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-6 10.3 10.4 8.3 82 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-2 36.6 54.1 44.4 65 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 1.9 2.8 0.8 72 -7 19.7 18.5 -0.5 16.0 50
1.5 Health -1 54.9 57.6 0.5 57.9 39-2 73.4 74.5 73.6 64 -14 66.9 64.6 -0.3 65.6 500 11.6 10.5 14.5 31 -4 26.7 32.3 2.1 9.6 87
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 116.9 144.8 2.4 23.0 88
-2.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 90
2017-27
40
2017
-1.4 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
4047
278020
10.671.58.1
4.9
75
58
7
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
8
88
67
36202071
31
4.46.5
47.0
87
5.75.3
4.78.0
59
64
67
70
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.5
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
6894
External
95.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.8
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
7.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3
High
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.6-3.33.7
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
-2.9
7.2
REER95.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.8
5517751
65
53
Region
55
Real Rate
788735
63.7
-1.3
30.4
6591
57
Life expectancy (yrs) 66 2075.8
64
31
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
58
58.7
56.447.4
57Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
69
2338499
Remittances2
Imports G&S 5636.6
8.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.1
6.8
5.6
2018f5.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
53
Serbia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.7 4.3 5.5 -4.7 -3.6 -4.3 1.8 0.7 4.7 3.7- 1.3- -1.2 0.5 3.0 6.0 -11.9 -10.0 -10.9 1.4 0.1 8.7 40.4 43.2 41.5 4.4 1.6 8.4 2.2 2.6 2.3 0.6 6.2 1.4 44.0 44.6 42.7 0.0 6.5 3.6 -4.9 -5.3 -5.0 9.0 4.8 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.9 8.5 6.9 4.6 10.0 9.1 9.3 6.1 0.7 5.0 0.6- 1.7 1.7 0.4
0.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.0 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.9 5.0 4.3 7.6 7.5 5.0 2.2 2.4 9.5 -0.8 -2.6 1.4 4.9 6.7 3.5 6.6 11.6 7.0 2.6 4.5 5.7 0.7 1.7 0.7 1.8 4.8 7.3 1.4 1.2 3.5 2.2
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.5 7.3 0.3 0.4- 2.8 2.6 2.2 3.0 22.3 24.1 25.2 0.6 7.5 7.9 8.8 6.1 3.5 9.9 1.0 8.4 46.7 50.0 47.8 0.8 2.3 Other
2.2 5.6 5.3 15.1 14.5 14.3 8.8 7.0 4.0 0.8 2.8 1.8 5.7 3.9 3.6 -24.1 -25.4 -27.0 2.1 4.7 5.1 96.7 96.1 96.2 1.8 1.4 6.1 121.7 129.5 127.5 0.8 6.2 7.4 4.9
5.9 3.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 8.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score1.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.8 8.0
8.2 7.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 9.9 -1.2 0.64.8 5.2 7.8 7.4 7.9 2.9 -4.3 2.46.2 5.7 6.5 5.9 5.5 9.1 3.5 1.9
8.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0.66 -13 40.9 77.1 51 20
-30 1.8 4.1 49 7-4 7.0 7.1 34 47-2 15.3 29.1 56 7
-62 0.9 2.3 87 141 18.5 7.2 96 93
5 1.2 GDP by Activity %-1.2 -7 78.0 58.3 91 100
Med -1.2 -29 10.1 18.7 44 7-31 17.6 20.6 52 7-6 2.8 0.3 92 10017 -8.5 2.7 7 0
1.3 GDP by Sector %7.33 2 9.6 3.4 52 100 5.5 3.5 8 41.5 30.3 82 100
Med 2.5 -9 49.0 66.2 29 01.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
2.66 -6 50.1 39.5 79 70-4 55.5 69.2 51 202 52.5 59.4 53 33-7 14.3 1.5 82 100
6.61.4 Openness (% GDP)
35 47.8 58.7 33 27Rank % 5 56.2 58.1 71 47
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 24 104.0 115.0 49 401.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-3 3.8 3.9 4.1 30 Exports (2016)30 6.1 7.2 6.3 74 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Italy 13.0 0.0 6 39.0 42.0 37.0 66 #2 Partner Germany 11.6 0.0
15 5.9 6.1 5.8 65 #3 Partner Russia 5.8 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts20 4.7 5.7 5.7 50
1.3 Infrastructure4 3.0 3.1 4.0 18
-16 7.6 7.0 6.9 521.4 Human Capital and Innovation
2 9.9 10.2 8.3 81 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-8 41.7 53.5 44.4 64 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202771 0.0 3.2 0.8 73 -2 7.0 6.8 -0.4 16.0 30
1.5 Health -7 55.8 58.0 0.4 57.9 402 73.6 75.1 73.6 70 -20 66.2 63.7 -0.4 65.6 39-4 6.3 5.8 14.5 15 -4 26.2 32.1 2.2 9.6 86
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 105.5 129.1 2.2 23.0 85
-4.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 87
2017-27
48
2017
0.9 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
020
133313
10.671.58.1
4.9
50
29
14
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
68
78
72
2913270
19
4.46.5
47.0
60
5.75.3
4.78.0
32
43
60
027
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
3.5
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
3818
External
96.2
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.5
DomesticModerate Low
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1.2
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.1-4.42.6
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
-4.3
1.8
REER96.2
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.5
14208525
91
73
Region
30
Real Rate
542497
63.7
-1.3
30.4
6090
32
Life expectancy (yrs) 69 3375.8
83
54
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
74
58.7
56.447.4
70Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
20
465575Remittances2
Imports G&S 7636.6
3.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.2
4.8
5.1
2018f3.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
54
Slovakia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.1 4.6 5.4 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 3.9 4.0 3.8 2.7- 2.2- -1.5 1.3 3.5 6.3 1.3 2.0 1.5 4.1 9.8 4.5 42.5 39.3 39.6 1.9 3.3 4.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.7 1.0 4.5 45.2 41.5 41.1 5.6 7.0 4.2 -1.7 -2.3 -2.1 4.9 8.0 4.2 3.6 3.8 3.8 9.5 6.3 6.1 -1.6 -1.7 -1.8 8.6 3.7 3.7 0.9 1.7 2.4 0.6
1.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
6.1 1.2 0.1 -0.6 2.1 3.4 1.8 4.2 14.8 8.1 6.5 4.5 3.8 8.9 -2.8 -4.6 1.9 5.9 0.3 4.6 11.1 5.2 4.8 2.7 5.7 1.8 -1.6 -2.1 0.4 2.6 4.7 10.0 0.3- 0.5- 7.6 10.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.0 9.3 2.9- 4.1- 2.5 8.7 4.5 2.9 84.9 86.4 92.7 2.1 6.2 7.4 0.1 0.3- -1.0 9.2 4.0 4.5 93.0 94.6 95.4 1.3 2.3 Other
10.0 5.0 5.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.4 4.6 5.0 3.9 3.3 3.3 5.1 4.6 2.9 -86.4 -87.7 -94.3 1.9 4.1 8.6 93.8 92.7 97.4 3.4 7.4 1.3 97.9 97.5 98.1 7.9 5.4 10.0 0.5 0.2 -8.6 10.0 4.8 5.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 8.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.3 6.65.4 4.8 20.6 21.6 21.2 5.6 -1.5 1.4
-1.7 3.07.6 4.3
6.9 6.9 1.1 -0.7 -2.3 7.2 -8.6 8.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth2 -5 96.4 77.1 61 53
-10 3.3 4.1 53 20-3 5.4 7.1 26 400 32.2 29.1 86 73
-41 0.7 2.3 58 7-5 7.1 7.2 63 47
6.43 1.2 GDP by Activity %-1.5 -3 54.5 58.3 29 33
Med -1.2 1 18.9 18.7 80 53-22 21.0 20.6 59 60-1 1.9 0.3 74 8620 3.7 2.7 53 60
1.3 GDP by Sector %9.33 -3 3.5 3.4 23 53#### 7.6 -8 34.4 30.3 78 80
Med 2.5 44 62.1 66.2 22 201.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
4 39.5 59
4 84.1 69.2 73 87-1 69.5 59.4 73 801 0.1 1.5 1 0
6.61.4 Openness (% GDP)
1 95.4 58.7 95 100Rank % 3 91.6 58.1 93 100
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -1 187.0 115.0 97 1001.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-10 4.2 4.2 4.1 56 Exports (2016)3 7.1 7.6 6.3 87 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Germany 22.4 0.0 6 46.0 51.0 37.0 78 #2 Partner Czech Republic 12.0 0.0
-15 6.5 5.9 5.8 52 #3 Partner Poland 7.2 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts7 4.7 5.3 5.7 37
1.3 Infrastructure11 4.4 4.5 4.0 7216 7.3 8.0 6.9 74
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation8.3 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
-3 75.2 80.0 44.4 92 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20272 6.5 9.2 0.8 88 -1 5.4 5.4 -0.1 16.0 23
1.5 Health -6 53.4 54.0 0.1 57.9 322 74.8 76.3 73.6 78 -25 69.6 65.1 -0.6 65.6 56-4 6.6 6.0 14.5 16 2 21.7 30.5 4.1 9.6 84
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 1 98.1 131.3 3.4 23.0 86
-1.7
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 85
2017-27
38
2017
-2.7 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
1353
47200
10.671.58.1
4.9
67
29
60
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
58
96 876087
20
4.46.5
47.0
67
5.75.3
4.78.0
66
84
71
4060
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
7.6
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
5643
External
97.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
Domestic Moderate
Fair-valued
Vulnerability#VALUE!
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.3Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1.5
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.4-0.61.7
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
-1.7
3.3
REER97.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI
81367374
69
Region
23
Real Rate
861657
63.7
-1.3
30.4
8282
24
Life expectancy (yrs) 77 5375.8
26
20
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
96
58.7
56.447.4
96Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
67
77722Remittances2
Imports G&S 9636.6
0.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.3
4.8
3.2
2018f3.7
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
55
Slovenia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
8.3 3.4 4.2 4.4 5.2 5.6 1.2 4.2 4.1 2.9- 1.8- -0.6 1.4 5.0 6.3 3.8 3.8 3.2 1.4 10.0 2.3 45.1 43.0 43.7 4.4 1.0 0.3 4.8 5.4 6.2 0.0 2.8 4.6 48.0 44.8 44.3 1.8 4.8 4.1 -3.3 -3.2 -3.0 9.0 3.5 1.7 3.3 3.2 2.9 8.2 2.9 5.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 6.7 4.3 4.3 0.4 1.3 2.3 1.0
1.4 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
8.4 7.6 3.3 2.2 1.4 3.3 3.7 2.7 7.4 4.2 -2.0 3.3 3.0 8.7 -7.5 -12.5 -2.0 3.2 1.0 5.0 7.7 3.2 5.0 5.5 6.2 7.7 7.4 7.0 1.5 6.2 6.2 0.7- 0.2- 0.4 2.1
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 3.3 9.2 0.2- 1.4- 2.2 6.8 3.7 1.5 35.5 37.2 41.8 0.3 6.2 7.4 0.1 0.3- -1.0 9.2 4.1 2.0 76.8 77.9 81.7 0.4 2.3 Other
2.1 6.0 5.9 2.0 3.3 4.5 8.3 4.2 2.0 -33.6 -34.8 -39.1 1.7 4.1 8.6 93.8 92.7 97.4 3.4 3.9 7.5 100.8 101.7 99.5 5.7 6.7 7.1 0.9 0.1- -1.4 7.2 5.2 8.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 9.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.5 7.68.5 0.4 27.8 34.3 28.6 7.1 -0.6 1.2
5.6 1.40.4 4.7
-1.4 8.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6 -10 48.0 77.1 53 33
36 4.5 4.1 28 60-2 2.1 7.1 9 20-3 35.8 29.1 91 802 1.4 2.3 31 29
22 9.5 7.2 53 732.86 1.2 GDP by Activity %
-0.6 7 53.5 58.3 18 27Med -1.2 -8 18.4 18.7 83 47
-51 18.4 20.6 76 13-17 1.2 0.3 76 6429 8.5 2.7 57 93
1.3 GDP by Sector %1.33 1 2.0 3.4 7 0#### 0.4 4 33.3 30.3 60 67
Med 2.5 -8 64.7 66.2 83 401.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
4 39.5-23 66.4 69.2 86 47-6 56.2 59.4 65 40
1.56 7.6 6.6 47 60
1.4 Openness (% GDP)10 81.7 58.7 83 87
Rank % 7 73.2 58.1 81 67∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 6 154.9 115.0 85 731.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-15 4.4 4.3 4.1 61 Exports (2016)8 6.9 7.6 6.3 88 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Germany 20.7 0.0 -1 61.0 61.0 37.0 87 #2 Partner Italy 9.6 0.0 4 5.2 5.3 5.8 32 #3 Partner Austria 7.9 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts2 7.3 7.5 5.7 93
1.3 Infrastructure-1 5.3 4.9 4.0 835 8.6 8.9 6.9 93
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 11.6 11.7 8.3 93 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-6 64.3 71.6 44.4 83 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 66.5 62.3 0.8 98 -1 2.1 2.1 0.0 16.0 6
1.5 Health -3 49.6 50.9 0.3 57.9 300 79.0 80.3 73.6 95 -36 66.0 61.2 -0.7 65.6 19-4 2.9 2.3 14.5 3 5 28.9 39.6 3.7 9.6 100
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 3 127.4 166.5 3.1 23.0 97
5.6
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 94
2017-27
33
2017
-2.4 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
2760
730
93
10.671.58.1
4.9
27
91
84
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
88
94
89
71539397
8
4.46.5
47.0
7
5.75.3
4.78.0
77
79
88
6787
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.4
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
4366
External
97.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
Domestic Moderate
Fair-valued
Vulnerability#VALUE!
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.6
High
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.16.01.4
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
5.6
4.5
REER97.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI
75245988
64
Region
7
Real Rate
883375
63.7
-1.3
30.4
5695
7
Life expectancy (yrs) 96 8775.8
25
9
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
92
58.7
56.447.4
94Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
75
6359
53Remittances2
Imports G&S 8936.6
7.2
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.0
4.6
4.0
2018f3.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
56
South Africa
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
2.4 2.3 4.1 -4.4 -3.3 -2.9 2.0 4.1 5.0 4.2- 3.9- -3.9 5.5 1.5 5.1 -0.9 0.3 0.3 3.6 6.0 3.1 26.0 25.7 26.2 0.6 5.5 6.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 2.7 1.6 7.6 30.2 29.6 30.1 8.8 7.0 0.5 -2.5 -2.8 -2.2 0.8 8.9 5.0 3.2 3.4 3.4 9.7 1.7 4.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 1.2 3.7 5.0 1.1- 0.6- -0.6 4.2
5.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.0 5.1 -1.3 -0.4 -0.4 8.0 6.0 3.5 8.0 9.5 7.3 3.8 6.9 4.8 2.7 4.6 4.4 8.6 2.7 5.4 9.6 6.6 7.1 3.8 1.2 4.3 -5.7 -3.6 -3.3 5.0 8.2 2.0 4.5 6.6 4.8 2.1
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 7.3 3.6 3.6 7.1 5.1 3.7 7.3 2.5 106.0 97.1 107.1 6.3 4.1 3.6 6.2 6.6 7.3 5.4 5.1 8.5 30.4 30.3 27.0 9.7 2.3 Other
2.1 0.1 8.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 3.3 3.3 6.1 1.3 0.3 0.9 2.4 7.8 2.7 -120.0 -106.7 -117.0 7.0 8.7 5.8 75.4 91.9 95.2 3.7 4.6 3.1 103.8 104.2 105.9 1.4 7.8 1.3 1.7 0.0 2.5 2.7 3.6 2.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.7 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 0.9 4.51.3 9.2 4.2 3.7 4.2 2.2 -3.9 3.44.9 2.2 63.3 63.1 56.3 4.0 -2.9 3.81.2 6.8 5.5 6.4 6.0 0.9 4.8 3.02.4 0.5 1.0 5.9 17.0 0.5 2.5 4.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 -1 344.0 77.1 82 80
-23 0.9 4.1 31 0-1 56.7 7.1 82 93-3 13.4 29.1 55 011 -0.2 2.3 4 00 28.1 7.2 100 100
10 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.9 1 59.6 58.3 40 67
Med -1.2 3 21.0 18.7 89 87-17 20.1 20.6 47 336 0.1 0.3 8 29-5 -0.8 2.7 59 20
1.3 GDP by Sector %8.66 1 2.7 3.4 16 33 6 4.8 -1 29.6 30.3 48 47
Med 2.5 -2 67.6 66.2 84 601.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
1.33 13 29.5 39.5 42 40-14 77.8 69.2 83 60-18 60.2 59.4 81 530 0.9 1.5 24 38
6.61.4 Openness (% GDP)
-8 27.0 58.7 44 7Rank % -11 27.2 58.1 35 7
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -8 54.2 115.0 39 71.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
0 4.3 4.4 4.1 72 Exports (2016)-24 7.0 6.5 6.3 57 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 21.4 0.0 4 43.0 45.0 37.0 69 #2 Partner United Kingdom 9.2 0.0
-39 6.6 5.4 5.8 36 #3 Partner United States 6.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-10 8.0 7.0 5.7 86
1.3 Infrastructure-3 4.6 4.3 4.0 6518 5.5 6.3 6.9 36
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 8.3 8.5 8.3 53 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM28 8.8 49.0 44.4 58 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-7 6.8 6.9 0.8 80 0 56.7 63.4 1.2 16.0 81
1.5 Health 4 65.8 70.2 0.7 57.9 64-3 51.5 56.7 73.6 8 20 65.7 66.6 0.1 65.6 72-6 47.9 32.8 14.5 73 -3 8.1 10.1 2.4 9.6 39
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -6 18.4 25.2 3.7 23.0 35
-2.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 41
2017-27
60
2017
2.2 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
530
207
67
10.671.58.1
4.9
76
96
68
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
17
56
29
70
3388
79
4.46.5
47.0
100
5.75.3
4.78.0
71
82
65
3313
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.8
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
817
External
95.2
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
6
DomesticLow Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
0.9Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.9
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.6-3.45.1
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
-2.9
0.9
REER95.2
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 6
92291554
47
56
Region
81
Real Rate
5215
100
63.7
-1.3
30.4
5243
81
Life expectancy (yrs) 11 075.8
41
17
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
30
58.7
56.447.4
35Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
82
686224Remittances2
Imports G&S 2436.6
5.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.0
4.2
6.3
2018f1.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
57
Turkey
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.6 5.1 6.6 -3.7 -3.8 -4.8 4.2 5.4 7.1 1.0- 1.1- -2.0 5.2 3.5 6.8 -5.6 -4.7 -5.8 2.8 1.0 6.6 20.7 21.3 21.1 7.4
10.0 2.7 2.8 1.8 2.1 8.6 6.6 6.7 21.7 22.4 23.2 4.8 3.3 9.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.3 10.0 2.2 3.9 2.3 1.9 1.8 0.8 2.7 5.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.9 6.6 8.0 1.3 0.8 -0.2 9.5
5.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
7.4 6.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 7.8 3.0 5.9 17.9 14.4 15.9 2.5 9.9 6.6 -3.2 0.5 1.4 7.1 5.5 4.7 17.1 18.3 17.7 5.7 5.8 7.0 -2.3 -2.7 -3.9 5.3 5.2 9.0 7.7 7.8 10.6 9.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.4 9.7 5.3 4.3 15.2 9.9 6.7 2.8 205.8 196.1 208.2 2.5 3.3 2.2 8.9 10.2 12.4 3.3 8.4 0.2 23.4 22.0 25.1 0.0 2.3 Other
9.8 6.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 7.9 3.2 6.5 6.0 3.3 5.5 5.6 6.0 3.0 -237.9 -228.7 -247.5 3.5 2.2 2.2 93.2 85.2 78.5 0.1 0.7 0.2 104.8 110.2 118.1 0.0 3.8 5.6 1.2 2.4 1.9 5.5 3.2 8.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 5.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 5.5 4.67.9 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 -2.0 5.95.0 6.8 92.6 92.5 97.9 8.1 -4.8 4.24.9 5.3 6.0 6.0 5.9 2.4 10.6 7.72.1 6.3 -2.0 12.8 6.4 5.9 1.9 4.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth9.33 -1 825.1 77.1 94 100
68 5.5 4.1 9 93-1 80.8 7.1 85 1005 25.8 29.1 72 33
55 3.2 2.3 22 71-3 11.1 7.2 84 80
7.15 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2 -7 58.9 58.3 45 53
Med -1.2 -10 14.1 18.7 57 1317 29.5 20.6 68 100-55 -0.8 0.3 60 71 -1.7 2.7 48 7
1.3 GDP by Sector %10 -4 6.8 3.4 47 93
5.9 10.6 16 31.9 30.3 41 60Med 2.5 -11 61.3 66.2 75 13
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)0 -2 39.5 39.5 68 50
-1 0.1 69.2 6 01 0.1 59.4 3 0
-15 0.5 1.5 29 23-9 10.8 6.6 75 80
1.4 Openness (% GDP)16 25.1 58.7 16 0
Rank % 8 26.9 58.1 15 0∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 14 52.0 115.0 15 01.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
5 4.2 4.4 4.1 69 Exports (2016)-6 6.7 6.7 6.3 60 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Germany 9.8 0.0 -13 49.0 41.0 37.0 62 #2 Partner United Kingdom 8.0 0.0 4 6.7 6.9 5.8 83 #3 Partner Italy 5.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
27 5.7 7.0 5.7 861.3 Infrastructure
5 5.1 4.9 4.0 86-3 7.9 8.0 6.9 71
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-3 6.2 6.5 8.3 30 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-3 35.3 51.0 44.4 61 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 5.8 7.5 0.8 84 0 80.8 87.0 0.8 16.0 84
1.5 Health 0 74.4 78.3 0.5 57.9 7419 71.9 75.2 73.6 72 10 66.9 67.4 0.1 65.6 770 19.9 16.5 14.5 53 0 12.2 16.4 3.4 9.6 63
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 32.7 51.1 5.6 23.0 64
-4.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 64
2017-27
74
2017
3.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
477
05367
10.671.58.1
4.9
78
58
81
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
74
33
64
07
4783
53
4.46.5
47.0
93
5.75.3
4.78.0
64
66
76
8047
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
10.6
Med 4.1
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
9379
External
78.5
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.9
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
5.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.3-4.79.4
Tourism2
Med 97.4
Med 0.5
Med 5.9
M2 Stock
-4.8
5.5
REER78.5
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.9
47854
49
58
66
Region
84
Real Rate
777881
63.7
-1.3
30.4
6663
84
Life expectancy (yrs) 52 4075.8
38
43
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
29
58.7
56.447.4
32Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
63
54
1366
Remittances2
Imports G&S 2336.6
3.0
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.3
5.8
4.8
2018f4.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
58
CIS
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1
2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum12015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)2.8 5.1 6.1 -3.0 -3.9 -3.1 1.0 6.2 6.3 1.4- 1.8- -2.3 9.3
6.2 6.3 -3.9 -6.4 -4.5 1.4 6.1 4.2 29.3 28.8 29.2 2.7 4.6 2.5 -2.7 -1.9 -2.3 7.3 6.6 5.4 31.5 32.4 32.6 8.9 0.0 1.4 -1.8 -1.9 -2.3 9.6 10.0 8.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 10.0 2.2 5.7 3.2 3.0 3.9 1.8 5.5 4.2 1.2- 1.5- -1.1 6.4
9.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.1 Price Indicators (%)
4.3 5.8 3.3 3.5 3.3 7.9 3.3 4.7 17.7 11.3 10.3 1.8 5.9 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 0.0 9.9 3.1 4.0 24.0 18.3 4.1
4.1 6.6 -0.6 0.1 -0.9 3.6 4.6 2.5 9.8 9.5 7.1 3.0 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.7 6.1 7.5 6.4 10.5 5.6
6.8 4.3 15.1 14.0 14.4 2.9 0.1 10.0 9.0 14.0 7.0 8.2
8.5 0.6 37.5 34.2 38.3 8.3 3. Other
3.0 CPI 3.0 10.0 10.5 11.3 6.5 9.2 5.1 6.1 1.6 1.6 2.8 2.8 6.8 4.9 -16.9 -16.1 -16.2 3.2 0.0 1.4 103.9 96.5 92.7 0.0 5.3 0.4 97.9 97.3 110.6 0.5 0.0 8.3 0.7- 6.9 3.5 1.6
8.0 8.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 6.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score0.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.8 3.9
3.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.0 -2.3 6.33.7 6.1 30.3 27.1 29.4 1.3 -3.1 1.3
2.2 5.7 4.8 5.5 5.4 2.5 7.1 2.55.6 7.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.7 5.6 3.5 7.4
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank # of 8CIS EM* Africa E Asia S Asia CEMEA 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 41.1 66.3 32.3 309.7 246.6 77.1 70 2.8 3.7 3.8 5.5 6.7 4.1 50 9.1 16.9 24.3 41.3 164.7 7.1 70 9.8 12.9 3.9 15.0 5.5 29.1 62 2.0 1.9 0.9 2.7 4.2 2.3 2-1 5.6 6.1 11.1 3.5 5.3 7.2 5
1.2 GDP by Activity %1 61.1 63.7 72.0 54.0 67.9 58.3 30 17.1 14.6 14.9 12.3 11.7 18.7 3-2 24.0 22.2 21.0 25.3 27.5 20.6 51 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 3.1 0.3 2-1 0.1 -1.3 -8.5 1.5 -6.5 2.7 6
1.3 GDP by Sector %-1 11.4 8.3 18.0 9.6 16.7 3.4 40 32.3 30.4 26.2 35.8 28.7 30.3 30 54.4 58.7 54.3 53.2 56.3 66.2 5
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)0 66.2 25.3 24.9 18.2 12.9 39.5 20 35.5 56.4 28.0 136.4 62.2 69.2 70 28.8 47.4 40.4 129.7 55.8 59.4 81 6.5 3.9 4.0 1.9 25.3 1.5 2
0 22.3 7.1 7.7 8.7 0.2 6.6 11.4 Openness (% GDP)
0 Exports G&S 38.3 36.6 29.5 65.8 15.5 58.7 4Rank # of 8 0 Imports G&S 48.3 39.9 35.1 54.4 21.1 58.1 3
∆Rank EM 0 85.2 74.4 63.8 123.1 39.4 115.0 41.1 Aggregate-11
1.2 Institutions-10-3
1.3 Infrastructure00
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation Ave % Growth EM* Median Rank # of 8-1 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 0 9.2 9.9 0.7 16.0 1.6 61 0 53.6 55.8 0.4 57.9 0.7 6
1.5 Health 2 67.8 64.2 -0.5 65.6 -0.1 50 0 12.8 18.9 4.8 9.6 3.4 32 0 41.0 67.8 6.5 23.0 5.4 3
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank *EM median is the median of all EM countries and not the median of all regional medians2% C/A Receipts
-3.1
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
CPI5
Demographic Forecasts
Population (mm)
Dependancy Ratio (retired)Retired/Child Ratio
18.52027
12.935.4
2017-27 2017
3
3
6
3
61.8 6
29.2 43.5 32.9
Urban Pop. (% total)
2011
3.96.5
31.06.95.2
4.07.4
10.286.41.3
Total Trade
712
42
815
REER Imp. Cover (mths)Med 5.35 / Score 2.5
CA (% GDP)Med -3.1 / Score 1
EM*
4.16.3
2011
61
Med 92.7 / Score 0
Global Comp. Index (1-7) 4.1 5
2016 2016
2Ease of Business Index (1-10) 7.1
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Macro Risk scoresMacro Road Sign: Risk Time series
Growth
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real GDP (%) Current Acc. Fiscal Bal.2.8 Level Trade Bal. Budget Rev.
-2.3 Net FDI Dom. Cred GrowthNet Port. Flows M2 Growth
Level Exports G&S
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP) Moderate
Moderate Services Bal. Budget exp.Income Bal. Debt Interest
Qaility Transfers Bal. Primary bal.
Imp. Cover (mths) Undervalued Remittances3
Net Ext. Flow2 CPI5
Currency PPICA Credits MM Rate
Real GDP (%)
Low Imports G&SREER 92.7 Broad Money
5.4 7.1 CA DebitsVulnerability Terms of Trade4
REER4
Real Rate
2018f momentumReal GDP (%) 3.1 5.3
-1.4Short term debt
Imp Cover (mths)External Low Domestic Moderate Capital Flight Real Rate6 0.7 6.7
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
Real GDP (%)
Med 2.75 / Score 2.8
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Med -2.25 / Score 9.3
CPI
Med 7.1 / Score 3
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high pressure). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Nominal GDP $Real GDP (%) 2.0
Gulf
9.4
Economic Structure
Median
0.5 0.1
67.3 54.913.6 19.2
7.6 4.3
3
4.9
2.9
50.0 160.6
-4.1 2.4
7.1 1.1
5
335
27
26.0
7.5
Competitiveness
41.8 96.94.1
83
15.1
24.5 46.4 33.7 4
M2 StockRemittances2
Tourism2
Corruption Perc. Index (1-100) 31.0 37.05.85.7
4.2 4Getting Electricity (1-10) 7.6 2
4.06.9
Infrastructure Index (1-7)
Contract Enforcement (1-10) 6.3Protecting minority investors 5.8
Patents (applications/mm pop) 1.4 4Internet users (% Pop) 120.4 5Education (ave yrs for pop>25) 10.8 28.3
113.80.8
53
3
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000) 13.7 5Life expectancy (yrs) 70.9 6
14.568.323.6
73.6 63
66.6
7
75
644
433
34
76.7
2.317.2
1031.1
3.0
Working Age Pop. (% total) 64.6
62.2 52.3 71.5
GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
44.116.223.8
13.7 54.3 51.21.1 -0.3 0.8
20.7 23.2
56.1 85.9
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
27.785.684.12.6
0.928.1 45.1
24.5
AgricultureIndustryServices
Net DebtDom Credit Stock
2.3
-2.8 4.4
6.4 4.1
Private Con.
2.613.9Population
∆Rank1 LatAm G10 2017
75.2 211.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Region Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
- 5.0 10.0
CISAfricaE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
CISAfricaE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
CISAfricaE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
0.0 5.0 10.0
CISAfricaE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
CISAfricaE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
CISAfricaE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
59
Armenia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.7 4.6 5.7 -2.6 -2.3 -2.8 0.7 6.1 1.5 4.8- 5.5- -2.9 4.6 2.3 6.8 -11.2 -8.9 -10.3 0.4 5.5 4.0 23.8 23.7 23.9 1.5 3.8 9.6 -0.9 -0.7 -1.9 6.9 6.0 1.5 28.6 29.2 26.8 7.1 9.6 0.8 4.2 2.1 4.0 6.0 5.7 4.1 5.4 5.2 5.4 9.1
4.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
1.7 7.4 1.5 2.6 1.8 9.2 6.5 4.2 1.7- 13.3 7.1 1.8 10.0 5.1 -3.3 0.3 0.4 7.6 7.7 2.4 5.2 24.8 5.6 3.5 3.0 7.1 -1.1 0.3 -1.0 1.2 0.9 8.0 3.7 1.3- 2.1 1.9
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.1 0.3 0.8- 1.5 -13.7 0.0 3.0 1.1 4.9 5.2 5.9 0.4 0.0 10.0 7.4 12.4 5.6 8.7 1.5 0.5 29.7 33.1 37.7 0.1 2.3 Other
1.9 7.5 6.4 30.3 27.9 26.7 9.8 3.8 6.7 3.0 0.2 4.3 5.7 3.7 1.6 -5.2 -5.5 -6.2 1.5 4.1 0.6 104.3 103.0 96.2 1.1
0.0 9.9 3.6 13.6 3.5 4.7 6.3 9.9 0.4 0.4 0.5 9.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.3 5.85.0 5.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 5.9 -2.9 3.92.7 6.6 37.4 30.7 35.4 3.2 -2.8 1.52.4 7.0 4.8 5.9 5.1 3.4 2.1 3.08.7 0.6 -0.1 -0.5 0.1 0.3 3.5 6.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth7.27 -9 11.2 41.1 18 27
-10 4.3 2.8 72 730 2.9 9.1 15 0-5 9.4 9.8 44 45
2.0-2 17.7 5.6 97 100
8.19 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.9 19 76.7 61.1 61 73
Med -2.3 25 13.1 17.1 10 27-76 17.9 24.0 99 1813 0.7 1.7 35 2216 -8.4 0.1 10 36
1.3 GDP by Sector %0.9 3 16.7 11.4 72 82
5.1 2.1 -45 28.5 32.3 85 36Med 7.1 26 54.8 54.4 9 55
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)7.27 33 69.5 66.2 50 64
21 54.8 35.5 23 704 21.1 28.8 13 30
-11 26.7 6.5 98 806 19.0 22.3 78 0
1.4 Openness (% GDP)46 37.7 38.3 4 45
Rank % 33 48.4 48.3 33 55∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 46 86.1 85.2 13 551.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
10 3.8 4.0 4.1 41 Exports (2016)10 6.8 7.4 6.3 83 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Russia 20.6 0.0 -1 34.0 33.0 37.0 35 #2 Partner China 14.9 0.0 58 5.1 7.0 5.8 85 #3 Partner Canada 8.2 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-15 6.3 6.0 5.7 60
1.3 Infrastructure15 4.0 4.3 4.0 6624 6.3 7.3 6.9 60
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 10.8 10.8 8.3 86 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM29 6.8 46.3 44.4 53 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202711 1.4 3.7 0.8 78 -3 2.9 2.9 0.0 16.0 12
1.5 Health -5 62.5 62.9 0.1 57.9 52-1 73.5 74.5 73.6 66 -11 68.8 66.0 -0.4 65.6 67-8 20.7 14.0 14.5 47 1 16.3 24.3 4.9 9.6 76
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 1 56.1 89.0 5.9 23.0 73
-2.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 72
2017-27
57
2017
2.9 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
1467
805622
10.847.81.4
13.7
25
75
50
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
35
89
23
50298667
54
4.17.1
31.0
57
6.35.8
4.27.6
31
73
36
8644
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.1
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
861
External
96.2
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.1
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.3Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.9
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.7-3.42.7
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
-2.8
4.3
REER96.2
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.1
36214927
39
84
Region
15
Real Rate
39
96
63.7
-1.3
30.4
7974
15
Life expectancy (yrs) 67 10070.9
81
76
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
60
58.7
56.447.4
52Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
36
45178784
Remittances2
Imports G&S 6836.6
5.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.6
4.7
6.1
2018f3.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
60
Azerbaijan
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.8 6.7 1.1 -0.4 -3.6 3.9 9.0 4.4 6.5 0.5- 0.4- -0.7 8.5 4.9 1.8 11.0 11.1 16.6 8.8 9.1 8.6 32.2 29.0 26.0 8.2 5.8 1.7 -8.0 -8.3 -7.1 8.0 0.5 1.4 32.7 29.4 26.7 2.1 9.1 3.4 -3.8 -6.5 -5.7 3.1 5.0 5.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3.7 7.0 5.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 7.9 4.5 6.5 0.4- 0.3- -0.6 8.7
8.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.3 7.5 8.0 12.6 11.0 0.9 1.6 3.7 37.1 7.5 -2.0 1.3 8.7 5.5 -18.5 -12.4 -11.6 3.4 9.9 3.8 50.6- 34.1 18.3 4.1 4.1 1.6 7.5 9.0 14.9 8.6 8.6 5.4 4.1 12.6 13.4 8.2
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 9.2 7.2 36.7- 14.5 38.0 9.0 6.6 3.5 22.5 19.1 22.0 8.8 0.1 9.5 3.3 11.1 4.5 5.6 0.4 4.7 37.8 46.5 46.9 7.4 2.3 Other
8.2 10.0 1.4 5.6 3.7 4.5 7.0 2.1 6.7 1.1 3.1- -1.0 1.8 7.6 5.2 -22.7 -20.5 -20.3 5.2 0.0 5.2 107.1 76.9 77.5 0.4
5.5 9.4 0.9- 1.5- -8.9 9.8 9.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 9.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) -1.0 3.84.2 2.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 -0.7 9.24.8 3.1 20.9 20.5 16.3 5.7 3.9 8.74.9 2.1 5.1 5.2 6.5 6.6 13.4 4.40.6 6.0 -13.9 -6.2 -7.5 0.3 -8.9 5.4
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 -11 43.8 41.1 50 55
-91 -1.0 2.8 96 02 9.8 9.1 39 64-2 17.3 9.8 61 73
-90 -2.6 2.0 98 04 5.9 5.6 41 57
2.73 1.2 GDP by Activity %-0.7 18 52.8 61.1 5 18
Med -2.3 14 11.9 17.1 9 953 25.7 24.0 19 733 0.1 1.7 12 0-7 9.5 0.1 99 91
1.3 GDP by Sector %9.09 3 6.2 11.4 34 18 6.5 13.4 -2 49.1 32.3 99 100
Med 7.1 7 44.7 54.4 0 01.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
1.81 18 18.8 66.2 13 271 30.6 35.5 21 30-3 18.1 28.8 16 105 4.5 6.5 51 30
22.31.4 Openness (% GDP)
-13 46.9 38.3 82 64Rank % 35 37.3 48.3 8 36
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -2 84.2 85.2 59 451.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
10 4.3 4.5 4.1 80 Exports (2016)2 6.4 6.8 6.3 64 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Italy 26.1 0.0 8 27.0 30.0 37.0 23 #2 Partner Germany 14.4 0.0
-14 7.0 6.6 5.8 75 #3 Partner France 7.9 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-7 6.7 6.5 5.7 75
1.3 Infrastructure18 4.4 4.8 4.0 8127 5.3 6.5 6.9 41
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation86 0.0 11.2 8.3 89 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-2 41.8 61.0 44.4 72 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20278 0.4 0.8 0.8 51 -2 9.8 10.6 0.7 16.0 39
1.5 Health 0 55.2 58.6 0.6 57.9 43-6 70.2 70.7 73.6 34 -2 70.7 68.2 -0.4 65.6 84-3 31.9 29.9 14.5 68 11 8.5 14.8 7.4 9.6 57
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 4 25.9 46.5 8.0 23.0 61
3.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 56
2017-27
43
2017
-1.6 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
10033
603367
10.847.81.4
13.7
89
83
62
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
13
0
73
60861442
71
4.17.1
31.0
86
6.35.8
4.27.6
69
62
15
10022
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
13.4
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
392
External
77.5
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
6.5
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
-1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.7
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.01.96.1
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
3.9
-1
REER77.5
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 6.5
24731592
97
31
Region
41
Real Rate
595
46
63.7
-1.3
30.4
8646
41
Life expectancy (yrs) 40 4370.9
24
37
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
57
58.7
56.447.4
69Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
7
221357Remittances2
Imports G&S 4536.6
1.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum8.3
6.5
6.2
2018f1.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
61
Belarus
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.5 5.2 2.5 -3.4 -3.5 -0.6 0.3 5.3 6.5 1.5 1.3 0.5 5.5 6.0 3.2 -3.9 -5.3 -2.9 1.8 5.3 4.1 42.1 41.3 43.4 2.5 0.3 9.6 4.1 5.1 4.1 1.8 4.7 6.4 40.6 40.0 42.9 7.8 5.9 0.1 -4.5 -4.7 -3.2 6.8 4.4 5.0 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4
5.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.5 5.1 2.8 2.5 2.5 7.3 1.7 6.7 27.6 2.0- 11.0 1.2 10.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 -1.5 0.0 8.2 5.3 1.1- 19.4 20.9 4.1 5.4 2.8 -0.5 -1.0 1.9 0.4 4.7 3.7 13.6 11.8 4.9 1.7
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.1 3.1 34.8 32.1 36.8 5.7 7.1 7.4 25.0 18.0 9.5 8.6 4.2 3.6 60.1 62.6 66.8 3.4 2.3 Other
1.7 3.8 6.6 2.2 2.3 2.2 3.5 6.0 8.0 3.9- 2.7- 1.3 3.5 6.2 3.6 -36.7 -33.8 -37.2 7.3 2.6 5.9 78.6 71.5 74.0 0.6
6.4 5.4 11.4 6.2 4.6 3.0 6.4 5.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.6 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.3 3.83.8 4.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.4 0.5 8.12.4 2.1 274.8 231.9 185.1 2.8 -0.6 0.92.4 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.7 0.0 4.9 2.34.5 8.6 1.2 1.4 -0.7 9.2 4.6 4.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0.9 -9 51.6 41.1 54 73
-80 1.3 2.8 93 9-3 9.3 9.1 40 55-3 19.1 9.8 69 82
2.05.6
0 1.2 GDP by Activity %0.5 10 56.5 61.1 21 27
Med -2.3 -7 17.3 17.1 74 55-25 24.2 24.0 88 55-21 1.3 1.7 86 4422 0.7 0.1 40 55
1.3 GDP by Sector %2.72 -6 8.3 11.4 56 36 2.7 4.9 2 41.5 32.3 88 82
Med 7.1 0 50.3 54.4 21 361.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
0.9 27 65.2 66.2 53 45-2 45.5 35.5 42 60-8 13.0 28.8 17 00 2.2 6.5 38 20
22.31.4 Openness (% GDP)
9 66.8 38.3 76 100Rank % -3 63.6 48.3 84 73
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 4 130.4 85.2 81 1001.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4.1 Exports (2016)29 6.2 7.4 6.3 84 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Russia 50.5 0.0 30 31.0 40.0 37.0 57 #2 Partner Ukraine 14.9 0.0 -12 7.9 7.0 5.8 86 #3 Partner Poland 4.3 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts33 5.0 6.3 5.7 70
1.3 Infrastructure4.0
76 5.1 8.6 6.9 891.4 Human Capital and Innovation
7 10.2 11.5 8.3 91 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM44.4 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270.8 -4 9.3 9.2 -0.3 16.0 35
1.5 Health -1 77.4 80.6 0.4 57.9 7973.6 -34 68.5 63.9 -0.7 65.6 4114.5 0 21.6 29.3 3.6 9.6 81
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -4 88.4 108.1 2.2 23.0 80
-0.6
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 84
2017-27
80
2017
1.9 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
78
906744
10.847.81.4
13.7
98
36
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
11
84 80
4.17.1
31.06.35.8
4.27.6
53
27
100
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.9
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
4510
External
74
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
2.7
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.3Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
0.5
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.5-1.17.6
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
-0.6
1.3
REER74
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 2.7
67616563
91
81
Region
36
Real Rate
66
63.7
-1.3
30.4
7781
39
Life expectancy (yrs) 70.9
31
50
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
85
58.7
56.447.4
85Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
21
408
39Remittances2
Imports G&S 8136.6
5.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.8
6.8
5.4
2018f1.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
62
Georgia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.3 5.5 2.0 -12.8 -13.4 -9.0 1.7 5.7 5.4 3.6- 3.9- -4.1 3.9 3.8 3.4 -28.2 -27.1 -25.6 4.8 4.0 3.3 28.2 28.5 28.9 4.0 2.8 0.7 10.5 11.4 13.5 0.2 6.0 6.3 31.8 32.4 33.1 4.6 9.9 5.4 -2.3 -5.0 -5.1 9.9 8.1 1.0 1.2
5.1 1.2 7.3 7.3 8.2 2.8 6.0 2.9 4.6- 5.1- -4.1 2.2 3.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.3 1.8 8.3 3.9 6.8 5.1 5.8 1.3 17.8 22.4 1.7 1.1 0.1 9.4 5.0 0.3 4.3 9.8 7.1 5.9 2.5- 12.9 19.0 5.4 8.4 0.8 -4.5 -9.5 -2.2 0.9 3.5 8.4 4.0 2.1 6.9 7.4
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 1.9 8.8 7.5 0.1- 10.5 8.2 4.3 0.3 8.1 8.3 10.1 0.6 1.4 6.0 4.0 8.0 7.0 5.1 6.7 0.0 44.7 43.5 54.1 0.0 2.3 Other
7.4 4.2 6.0 17.9 18.3 17.9 9.5 4.9 6.5 2.9 2.7 4.7 5.3 4.2 2.0 -9.9 -10.2 -11.4 0.9 5.2 2.8 95.3 95.7 91.9 0.5 5.2 0.7 97.9 97.3 116.0 1.2 1.2 8.6 0.0- 5.9 0.1 7.6 2.0 10.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 10.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.7 6.24.8 5.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 7.0 -4.1 3.56.3 7.9 81.1 85.6 95.8 9.8 -9.0 2.13.2 5.5 3.5 3.9 3.8 4.3 6.9 4.31.1 8.5 -0.3 0.4 -0.3 9.4 0.1 5.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth9.09 -3 14.8 41.1 17 36
51 4.7 2.8 19 91-2 3.9 9.1 21 189 10.1 9.8 31 55
2.0-14 11.5 5.6 99 86
10 1.2 GDP by Activity %-4.1 -32 63.7 61.1 81 55
Med -2.3 -19 18.8 17.1 100 9154 29.9 24.0 32 91-2 2.5 1.7 84 788 -14.9 0.1 4 27
1.3 GDP by Sector %4.54 3 8.9 11.4 50 45 3.8 6.9 11 23.5 32.3 8 9
Med 7.1 -12 66.8 54.4 93 1001.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
4.54 10 94.0 66.2 85 917 56.2 35.5 41 807 20.8 28.8 8 20-5 17.9 6.5 85 7029 25.6 22.3 61 100
1.4 Openness (% GDP)45 54.1 38.3 32 91
Rank % 13 69.9 48.3 72 82∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 25 124.0 85.2 55 821.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
21 3.9 4.2 4.1 57 Exports (2016)-2 8.2 8.0 6.3 96 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Vietnam 19.8 0.0 2 52.0 57.0 37.0 83 #2 Partner Russia 10.4 0.0 0 7.2 7.3 5.8 91 #3 Partner Turkey 8.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts5 7.3 7.7 5.7 97
1.3 Infrastructure-1 4.4 4.2 4.0 63-3 8.4 8.3 6.9 83
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation0 12.1 12.1 8.3 99 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM0 30.5 48.9 44.4 57 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-2 1.5 1.6 0.8 66 0 3.9 3.6 -0.3 16.0 19
1.5 Health -3 54.0 56.7 0.5 57.9 3610 71.5 74.1 73.6 57 -19 66.0 63.3 -0.4 65.6 36-28 26.5 11.7 14.5 34 -5 22.5 28.1 2.5 9.6 79
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -4 77.5 94.1 2.1 23.0 76
-9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 80
2017-27
39
2017
3.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
57100
1007889
10.847.81.4
13.7
91
91
63
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
86
99
57
100575768
63
4.17.1
31.0
29
6.35.8
4.27.6
36
98
81
7178
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
6.9
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
1471
External
91.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3.8
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-4.1
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.8-8.83.5
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
-9
4.7
REER91.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3.8
80888213
20
96
Region
19
Real Rate
41
84
63.7
-1.3
30.4
5584
19
Life expectancy (yrs) 47 8670.9
48
53
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
81
58.7
56.447.4
79Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
80
48168091
Remittances2
Imports G&S 8536.6
2.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.9
4.3
4.8
2018f4.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
63
Kazakhstan
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.5 7.2 3.3 -2.9 -6.7 -4.0 7.8 2.7 8.5 1.5- 0.3- -2.4 9.0 5.1 3.0 7.1 6.9 10.4 8.4 1.9 0.4 19.2 20.4 22.8 1.1 7.4 4.1 -2.8 -3.6 -3.3 2.5 4.8 10.0 20.7 20.6 25.2 10.0 9.4 6.8 -6.2 -9.7 -10.9 3.6 10.0 10.0 0.7 1.1 2.4 10.0 1.5 5.0 -0.9 -0.3 -0.3 2.3 2.1 0.7- 0.9
9.0 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.0 9.6 1.6 10.1 3.3 7.8 1.3 1.1 23.0 5.2 -14.3 0.2 2.2 7.2 5.0 -0.2 3.8 8.5 9.7 0.2 7.9 46.4 12.7 3.8 2.5 7.3 -1.3 3.4 -0.7 9.1 9.6 0.9 6.2 14.2 7.3 3.3
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 9.0 4.8 20.5- 16.9 15.2 6.4 6.8 3.1 57.0 47.4 57.5 8.1 0.0 9.4 5.5 16.0 10.3 2.8 2.8 2.9 29.3 32.7 36.0 8.3 2.3 Other
3.3 0.1 7.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4 4.9 8.0 1.0 0.9 3.5 3.5 6.5 2.9 -62.1 -56.3 -63.6 7.7 0.0 6.0 104.3 77.6 80.0 0.1 5.3 2.0 97.0 95.9 108.5 2.6 2.9 3.9 0.7- 1.8 3.0 0.9 9.0 4.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.5 3.33.5 6.3 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.3 -2.4 6.85.1 4.9 23.2 23.5 23.3 1.5 -4.0 6.91.1 5.5 7.4 9.1 8.9 0.4 7.3 3.08.5 2.4 0.8 -9.8 -1.9 0.4 3.0 2.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6.36 -1 152.1 41.1 65 91
8 3.5 2.8 35 641 18.2 9.1 53 731 26.0 9.8 79 100
39 3.0 2.0 33 100-16 4.9 5.6 51 14
5.46 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.4 19 56.5 61.1 11 27
Med -2.3 1 12.1 17.1 26 18-5 23.7 24.0 64 4519 0.7 1.7 29 22-6 7.0 0.1 90 82
1.3 GDP by Sector %5.45 -3 4.8 11.4 33 9 8.9 7.3 -11 34.6 32.3 84 73
Med 7.1 3 60.7 54.4 55 731.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
3.63 3 90.3 66.2 91 82-36 32.0 35.5 62 40-13 28.6 28.8 36 404 0.5 6.5 11 0
22.31.4 Openness (% GDP)
-24 36.0 38.3 74 36Rank % 0 29.0 48.3 32 27
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -19 65.0 85.2 63 361.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
23 4.1 4.5 4.1 77 Exports (2016)29 6.3 7.5 6.3 86 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 15.7 0.0 -2 28.0 29.0 37.0 18 #2 Partner Russia 11.9 0.0 11 6.8 7.6 5.8 96 #3 Partner Germany 10.2 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts15 6.7 8.0 5.7 98
1.3 Infrastructure9 4.0 4.2 4.0 610 7.3 7.4 6.9 61
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 10.2 10.4 8.3 82 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM5 33.9 54.9 44.4 66 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-9 1.2 1.0 0.8 55 -1 18.2 19.6 0.9 16.0 53
1.5 Health -4 53.2 54.8 0.3 57.9 334 66.4 70.5 73.6 33 -3 65.1 64.0 -0.2 65.6 44
-13 26.9 14.6 14.5 51 1 10.7 14.7 3.7 9.6 56Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -4 25.0 35.4 4.1 23.0 50
-4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 54
2017-27
37
2017
3.7 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
8689
30100100
10.847.81.4
13.7
85
83
52
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
61
84
61
40712964
64
4.17.1
31.0
71
6.35.8
4.27.6
53
55
20
5756
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
7.3
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
6444
External
80
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8.9
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.4
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.5-2.26.6
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
-4
3.5
REER80
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8.9
27584983
73
94
Region
54
Real Rate
807335
63.7
-1.3
30.4
4755
54
Life expectancy (yrs) 29 2970.9
31
30
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
43
58.7
56.447.4
49Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
58
252214Remittances2
Imports G&S 3236.6
4.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.1
3.2
3.5
2018f2.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
64
Kyrgyz Republic
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.1 1.5 7.5 -15.8 -10.1 -13.8 7.1 8.9 3.7 1.5- 4.6- -3.7 7.1 4.3 7.4 -33.2 -32.1 -36.5 7.7 8.1 2.4 29.8 28.5 29.4 1.3 5.1 5.7 -3.0 -3.1 -3.6 7.1 7.5 4.9 31.2 33.1 33.0 8.4 5.2 5.3 -3.9 -4.0 -4.3 4.4 0.3 3.0 24.4 29.1 30.6 1.4
7.1 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.0 4.3 15.1 8.1 9.1 3.4 7.5 4.5 19.2 32.6 30.1 6.6 -1.9 10.0 2.5 0.2- 40.3 26.1 7.0
5.7 6.3 -0.6 -2.0 -4.7 5.7 2.6 4.9 6.5 0.4 0.3 0.9 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.1 3.6 9.1 6.4 2.1 2.2
3.9 2.3 4.4 4.7 5.3 2.9 5.3 7.4 10.5 10.0 5.0 7.0 6.4 1.6 37.3 35.3 38.9 8.4 2.3 Other
0.9 0.6 9.0 38.1 42.3 38.7 1.6 5.0 5.8 3.9 3.8 4.9 5.1 5.5 1.9 -5.5 -5.3 -6.3 2.7 1.9 7.7 103.5 98.8 102.9 7.2
3.4 6.4 4.0 9.6 4.7 2.4 3.3 8.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
7.2 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.9 4.59.2 6.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 9.5 -3.7 6.04.0 5.5 19.4 17.8 18.6 5.1 -13.8 8.32.6 4.4 4.4 5.0 5.2 1.3 0.3 2.32.6 2.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.9 4.7 4.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth10 1 6.9 41.1 3 9
-9 4.9 2.8 82 1001 6.0 9.1 25 36-3 3.8 9.8 18 9
2.05.6 73
9.1 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.7 -1 85.7 61.1 97 82
Med -2.3 -6 18.2 17.1 79 7321 32.6 24.0 69 10035 3.0 1.7 53 89-2 -39.5 0.1 2 0
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 -16 14.4 11.4 87 73
5.2 0.3 36 31.7 32.3 20 45Med 7.1 -1 53.9 54.4 34 45
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)8.18 8 86.0 66.2 84 73
1 27.3 35.5 18 205 30.5 28.8 22 602 38.7 6.5 94 90
22.31.4 Openness (% GDP)
-13 38.9 38.3 69 55Rank % -5 78.4 48.3 97 91
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -13 117.3 85.2 92 731.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4.1 Exports (2016)6.3 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Russia 17.6 0.0 37.0 #2 Partner Uzbekistan 13.7 0.0 5.8 #3 Partner Turkey 10.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts5.7
1.3 Infrastructure4.06.9
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation8.3 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
44.4 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270.8 3 6.0 7.0 1.3 16.0 31
1.5 Health -5 36.0 38.8 0.8 57.9 1273.6 1 63.7 62.8 -0.1 65.6 3114.5 10 7.1 11.0 5.6 9.6 44
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 14.1 22.7 6.1 23.0 32
-13.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 34
2017-27
17
2017
2.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
10.847.81.4
13.7
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
4.17.1
31.06.35.8
4.27.6
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.3
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
473
External
102.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.2
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.9Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.7
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.4-16.12.5
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
-13.8
4.9
REER102.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.2
7391890
57
92
Region
26
Real Rate
15
63.7
-1.3
30.4
3033
28
Life expectancy (yrs) 70.9
96
71
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
78
58.7
56.447.4
55Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
33
192796Remittances2
Imports G&S 9236.6
6.1
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.4
4.6
6.7
2018f4.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
65
Moldova
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
4.5 1.9 8.8 -7.2 -4.2 -7.9 3.4 4.2 6.1 2.3- 1.8- -2.5 5.4 3.9 4.7 -32.6 -30.9 -30.5 0.8 8.4 1.4 35.6 34.2 35.5 8.6 0.2 8.3 1.9 3.2 2.5 1.7 2.0 8.1 37.9 36.0 38.0 1.9 5.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 5.6 9.7 4.9 9.3 16.6 16.6 14.5 9.8
5.4 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
7.6 2.4 3.5 1.6 3.1 7.5 1.6 6.1 4.4 9.9- -6.0 1.2 4.5 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 8.3 4.1 3.0- 10.2 7.0 2.7 2.8 8.8 -3.7 -2.6 -4.8 6.7 2.7 5.7 9.7 6.4 7.3 5.3
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
4.7 3.8 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.6 0.0 9.9 4.4 18.8 5.4 7.9 4.1 0.9 42.8 43.6 48.2 0.2 2.3 Other
5.3 5.4 5.1 15.0 14.8 14.7 6.0 7.1 4.5 0.4- 4.1 3.0 4.5 5.4 2.8 -5.0 -4.9 -5.5 4.5 6.2 9.4 97.9 99.9 109.8 9.6 2.2 1.1 100.4 104.7 110.6 0.6 0.0 9.6 5.3- 12.4 -1.9 7.9 3.9 8.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 4.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.6 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.0 6.20.6 7.8 1.9 1.6 1.8 4.2 -2.5 5.41.5 6.8 85.6 70.1 76.2 2.3 -7.9 1.40.5 7.1 4.7 5.9 5.5 1.4 7.3 4.15.8 8.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 6.6 -1.9 6.9
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth5.45 -3 7.8 41.1 8 18
-42 3.0 2.8 79 55-2 3.5 9.1 20 9-2 5.6 9.8 25 18
2.06 4.0 5.6 20 0
6.37 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.5 3 89.5 61.1 96 91
Med -2.3 -13 19.0 17.1 96 100-33 23.1 24.0 91 36-65 0.2 1.7 91 111 -31.8 0.1 1 18
1.3 GDP by Sector %6.36 -1 14.2 11.4 70 64 5.5 7.3 -2 21.0 32.3 15 0
Med 7.1 6 64.8 54.4 69 911.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
9.09 0 53.4 66.2 75 36-35 25.3 35.5 54 10-13 52.4 28.8 67 100-10 14.7 6.5 86 60
22.31.4 Openness (% GDP)
17 48.2 38.3 53 73Rank % -4 80.0 48.3 98 100
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 0 128.2 85.2 84 911.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4 3.9 4.0 4.1 39 Exports (2016)29 6.1 7.3 6.3 77 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Romania 23.7 0.0 -22 36.0 30.0 37.0 23 #2 Partner Italy 11.3 0.0 -29 7.3 6.1 5.8 64 #3 Partner Russia 10.7 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts1 6.0 6.3 5.7 70
1.3 Infrastructure14 3.1 3.5 4.0 3235 6.0 7.5 6.9 63
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 9.5 9.7 8.3 70 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
-11 35.9 46.6 44.4 55 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-1 0.8 1.2 0.8 56 -2 3.5 3.4 -0.4 16.0 16
1.5 Health -3 45.2 47.7 0.6 57.9 26-5 68.4 68.8 73.6 32 -2 73.4 69.5 -0.5 65.6 932 15.2 13.3 14.5 43 5 14.8 22.9 5.5 9.6 73
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 4 69.0 110.0 5.9 23.0 81
-7.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 77
2017-27
29
2017
-0.4 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
044
601144
10.847.81.4
13.7
95
68
18
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
27
73
66
0434358
41
4.17.1
31.0
43
6.35.8
4.27.6
34
47
46
067
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
7.3
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
535
External
109.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.5
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.5
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.7-5.05.8
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
-7.9
3
REER109.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.5
8256232
13
75
Region
18
Real Rate
23
26
63.7
-1.3
30.4
9568
18
Life expectancy (yrs) 37 1470.9
99
69
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
84
58.7
56.447.4
71Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
76
185476Remittances2
Imports G&S 9436.6
3.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.0
5.3
2.0
2018f5.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
66
Russia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.0 9.6 3.2 5.0 2.0 2.8 7.7 6.2 3.5 2.4- 3.4- -2.1 6.8 9.9 3.0 10.9 7.1 7.9 8.6 7.0 3.6 16.4 15.7 16.2 8.8 0.0 3.3 -2.7 -1.9 -1.7 3.7 5.5 3.6 18.8 19.1 18.3 3.5 5.0 7.2 -2.7 -2.7 -2.9 5.2 8.9 10.0 0.6 0.7 1.0 10.0 8.1 5.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 9.7 6.1 3.2 1.7- 2.7- -1.1 6.2
6.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.0 7.5 -1.1 0.8 0.1 3.3 0.2 7.8 17.7 6.1 10.3 0.6 6.0 7.0 -1.3 -1.0 -0.6 5.2 4.5 5.6 11.3 9.2 11.8 3.6 7.1 4.7 3.9 2.8 2.9 6.4 0.1 1.7 15.5 7.0 2.5 0.2
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 2.6 5.8 12.4 4.1 6.8 3.8 6.8 2.4 440.4 381.6 467.9 7.2 1.8 9.6 9.9 14.0 6.3 6.9 9.5 4.5 28.9 26.0 26.2 8.7 2.3 Other
0.2 1.8 9.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 2.4 6.6 6.3 2.8- 0.2- 1.8 5.0 5.6 2.6 -371.6 -356.0 -425.0 6.5 9.7 3.9 75.6 97.2 93.4 3.0 9.0 3.0 84.0 65.2 73.0 9.6 0.2 6.7 5.6- 6.9 3.8 1.6 4.7 3.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 6.9 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.8 5.64.2 7.7 1.6 1.5 1.7 7.2 -2.1 4.95.5 10.0 11.4 11.9 19.1 9.3 2.8 7.43.7 5.4 15.7 17.0 16.6 4.1 2.5 1.28.0 2.3 18.5 -59.6 13.2 0.9 3.8 3.9
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth2.72 -2 1558.0 41.1 99 100
-32 1.8 2.8 51 270 147.0 9.1 93 100
-11 23.9 9.8 84 91-28 2.2 2.0 84 67-4 5.3 5.6 47 43
4.55 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.1 5 52.2 61.1 17 9
Med -2.3 -13 17.8 17.1 82 6414 21.7 24.0 28 277 2.2 1.7 72 67-2 6.1 0.1 83 73
1.3 GDP by Sector %1.81 6 4.7 11.4 22 0 16.6 2.5 9 32.9 32.3 52 55
Med 7.1 -11 61.7 54.4 76 821.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
5.45 0 5.7 66.2 20 1818 56.4 35.5 32 909 47.0 28.8 39 90-1 1.4 6.5 30 10
22.31.4 Openness (% GDP)
-2 26.2 38.3 35 18Rank % 6 20.4 48.3 4 9
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 8 46.6 85.2 14 181.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
12 4.2 4.4 4.1 75 Exports (2016)43 5.9 7.3 6.3 80 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 10.8 0.0 -2 28.0 29.0 37.0 18 #2 Partner Germany 9.0 0.0 -3 7.6 7.5 5.8 93 #3 Partner Netherlands 6.9 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts29 4.7 6.0 5.7 60
1.3 Infrastructure25 3.6 4.1 4.0 5981 2.7 8.4 6.9 86
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 11.6 11.7 8.3 93 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM6 42.4 70.5 44.4 81 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20275 5.4 7.7 0.8 86 -1 147.0 141.0 -0.2 16.0 91
1.5 Health -3 74.2 75.7 0.2 57.9 705 67.8 71.1 73.6 40 -36 68.2 63.4 -0.7 65.6 37-9 11.9 8.6 14.5 25 0 20.8 29.1 4.0 9.6 80
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -5 80.5 101.6 2.6 23.0 77
2.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 82
2017-27
73
2017
2.4 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
7156
308922
10.847.81.4
13.7
97
29
33
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
2
94
74
9010010081
34
4.17.1
31.0
0
6.35.8
4.27.6
62
36
20
4389
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.5
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
9718
External
93.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
16.6
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.1
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.32.73.9
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
2.8
1.8
REER93.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 16.6
69437981
61
19
Region
93
Real Rate
735543
63.7
-1.3
30.4
7480
93
Life expectancy (yrs) 34 5770.9
22
29
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
22
58.7
56.447.4
33Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
64
514829Remittances2
Imports G&S 1036.6
6.2
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.9
4.1
5.2
2018f1.7
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
67
Tajikistan
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.4 4.3 2.2 -5.2 -3.9 0.5 0.4 9.9 4.0 0.7 1.8- -1.5 9.8 6.2 3.0 -24.9 -28.1 -25.0 0.3 1.5 3.8 28.8 32.8 33.4 0.0 3.9 6.2 -2.7 -2.0 -2.7 3.4 9.7 5.5 28.1 34.6 34.9 10.0 4.6 5.0 16.8 17.8 17.8 4.6 3.9 4.1 5.5 8.4 10.4 7.2
9.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.7 5.1 5.5 4.5 6.0 5.7 13.3 37.7 52.5 6.0 0.0 -7.3 - 10.0 6.5 12.2 56.7 63.6 10.0
4.2 2.3 -0.5 1.2 6.0 0.4 3.3 5.4 10.8 8.0 8.6 4.3 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.3 3.7 3.2 2.9 3.2 8.0 6.1 6.4 18.7 17.5 16.0 8.6 2.6 3.7 8.8 11.2 12.5 7.6 2.3 Other
4.3 4.3 0.9 69.9 70.9 77.9 0.9 0.9 9.4 2.0 1.0- 2.5 1.4 7.2 5.2 -3.7 -3.2 -3.2 9.1 0.0 5.5 106.1 92.6 93.5 0.8
4.2 6.1 7.9 9.5 7.4 6.5 6.8 6.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 1.9 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.5 3.04.6 2.7 2.1 2.0 1.6 2.2 -1.5 8.10.9 1.7 193.6 125.0 74.4 1.6 0.5 0.50.1 0.0 1.8 2.6 5.0 0.0 8.6 5.0
0.0 0.2 -0.7 9.4 7.4 8.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth4.54 -1 6.8 41.1 4 0
-51 2.5 2.8 81 452 8.9 9.1 33 45-2 2.7 9.8 10 0
2.05.6
3.64 1.2 GDP by Activity %-1.5 0 103.6 61.1 100 100
Med -2.3 42 16.7 17.1 20 36-20 12.3 24.0 24 054 3.0 1.7 33 891 -35.6 0.1 0 9
1.3 GDP by Sector %7.27 16 28.6 11.4 79 100 5 8.6 -10 25.5 32.3 37 18
Med 7.1 -20 45.9 54.4 31 91.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
6.36 -1 67.2 66.2 83 551 35.5 35.5 26 50
13 28.8 28.8 9 500 77.9 6.5 100 100
22.31.4 Openness (% GDP)
-1 12.5 38.3 8 0Rank % -20 48.1 48.3 88 45
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -20 60.6 85.2 57 271.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
25 3.5 4.0 4.1 42 Exports (2016)16 4.4 5.5 6.3 24 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Turkey 18.2 0.0 0 22.0 25.0 37.0 6 #2 Partner Italy 9.0 0.0 -8 6.7 6.3 5.8 72 #3 Partner Switzerland 8.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-2 6.7 6.7 5.7 80
1.3 Infrastructure7 3.6 3.8 4.0 42-5 3.9 3.5 6.9 4
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-6 9.9 9.8 8.3 73 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
-10 10.1 17.5 44.4 22 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 0.0 0.0 0.8 0 5 8.9 10.7 2.0 16.0 41
1.5 Health -1 27.0 29.4 0.9 57.9 6-7 66.7 67.4 73.6 26 0 61.3 61.7 0.1 65.6 230 54.1 40.9 14.5 82 12 5.7 8.3 4.7 9.6 30
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -1 9.8 15.4 5.6 23.0 20
0.5
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 21
2017-27
7
2017
7.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
290
202278
10.847.81.4
13.7
80
83
34
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
10
78
32
10000
82
4.17.1
31.0
100
6.35.8
4.27.6
17
8
6
140
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
8.6
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
329
External
93.5
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1.5
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.81.29.0
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
0.5
2.5
REER93.5
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5
633
891
26
82
Region
35
Real Rate
8
63.7
-1.3
30.4
2317
36
Life expectancy (yrs) 33 070.9
100
96
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
36
58.7
56.447.4
7Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
9
2723
100Remittances2
Imports G&S 6736.6
5.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.4
2.8
4.2
2018f3.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
68
Turkmenistan
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
2.2 5.6 4.8 -3.1 -6.2 -5.1 3.4 5.4 4.6 0.7- 1.2- -0.7 8.8 5.9 4.7 10.4 6.1 7.6 4.9 8.5 5.3 17.6 12.0 11.5 9.8 2.9 5.3 -15.5 -13.8 -14.0 0.5 0.3 3.8 18.3 13.2 12.2 0.5 7.8 5.7 2.6 2.1 2.0 9.7 5.0 5.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 3.6
8.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.6 4.8 -3.1 -6.2 -5.1 3.4 1.7 2.0 16.0 11.0 6.2 1.2 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.1 4.6 15.0 13.1 13.5 3.6 6.5 4.2 37.7 28.0 29.6 9.3 2.3 Other
1.2 4.3 4.5 4.0 2.5 1.5 2.2 6.1 5.1 -16.0 -15.4 -15.4 4.1 9.9 3.8 119.1 134.8 132.2 9.7
3.5 4.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score9.7 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.5 3.4
-0.7 7.85.7 7.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 5.8 -5.1 3.85.3 8.8 21.3 21.1 18.2 2.9 6.2 9.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1.81 10 38.5 41.1 24 45
-76 1.5 2.8 92 181 5.8 9.1 24 274 11.6 9.8 40 64
2.05.6
2.73 1.2 GDP by Activity %-0.7 -13 50.0 61.1 27 0
Med -2.3 0 8.2 17.1 7 080 28.9 24.0 0 82
1.7-1 12.9 0.1 96 100
1.3 GDP by Sector %3.63 -14 7.5 11.4 59 27 18.2 6.2 0 44.9 32.3 95 91
Med 7.1 13 47.7 54.4 1 271.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
10 -3 -55.0 66.2 3 035.528.8
6.5 15
22.31.4 Openness (% GDP)
-52 29.6 38.3 96 27Rank % -57 16.8 48.3 63 0
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -61 46.4 85.2 82 91.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4.1 Exports (2016)6.3 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 69.5 0.0 4 17.0 22.0 37.0 5 #2 Partner Italy 5.3 0.0
5.8 #3 Partner Turkey 5.3 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts5.7
1.3 Infrastructure4.06.9
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-3 9.9 9.9 8.3 75 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
44.4 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270.8 1 5.8 6.6 1.4 16.0 28
1.5 Health 0 50.8 55.0 0.8 57.9 3473.6 3 64.8 64.4 -0.1 65.6 4714.5 8 6.6 9.9 5.0 9.6 38
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 13.8 21.8 5.8 23.0 31
-5.1
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 33
2017-27
34
2017
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
10
10.847.81.4
13.7
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
78 20
4.17.1
31.06.35.8
4.27.6
1
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
6.2
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
3414
External
132.2
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
18.2
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.7
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
0.2-8.615.0
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
-5.1
1.5
REER132.2
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 18.2
782
95
95
0
Region
25
Real Rate
44
63.7
-1.3
30.4
4430
27
Life expectancy (yrs) 70.9
14
44
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
20
58.7
56.447.4
43Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
15
Remittances2
Imports G&S 436.6
9.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.5
4.2
5.7
2018f2.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
69
Ukraine
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
6.7 8.4 4.7 -0.2 -3.7 -3.4 3.4 6.5 6.2 1.4- 2.2- -2.9 5.1 8.6 3.5 -3.8 -7.4 -6.1 2.4 4.9 4.7 32.8 32.8 33.0 0.5 6.5 5.3 1.9 1.6 1.5 8.9 7.0 6.9 34.2 35.1 35.9 9.6 3.8 8.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.7 7.2 3.5 5.9 2.9 3.2 3.0 0.8
5.1 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.5 8.3 3.3 3.5 2.1 8.5 6.8 5.6 0.4- 11.3 14.9 3.8 0.9 0.0 3.4 0.5 -8.9 0.0 6.5 5.6 4.0 10.9 13.7 4.3 8.2 6.2 3.1 -0.2 -1.3 5.7 0.1 5.5 48.7 13.9 16.2 5.5
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 1.6 6.3 35.9 20.6 26.2 7.7 5.3 3.5 55.6 54.2 61.3 8.3 0.0 9.8 10.3 25.3 14.5 2.2 8.5 4.9 52.6 49.3 49.4 2.1 2.3 Other
5.5 2.4 10.0 10.5 11.3 6.5 9.9 9.1 4.9 9.8- 2.3 2.1 6.7 4.7 3.8 -55.8 -57.6 -65.0 8.1 4.6 5.2 80.4 79.1 79.7 0.8 4.1 0.1 106.2 107.5 120.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 38.4- 11.3 -1.7 4.3 6.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.1 6.74.2 4.6 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.8 -2.9 3.83.8 3.6 149.9 129.7 105.4 3.7 -3.4 7.53.9 3.8 3.2 3.6 4.0 4.7 16.2 3.95.0 8.9 5.6 5.6 -1.2 3.3 -1.7 3.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth3.63 -14 109.8 41.1 73 82
4 2.1 2.8 20 36-5 42.4 9.1 79 91
-10 8.7 9.8 46 36-5 1.7 2.0 49 3321 9.0 5.6 50 71
8.19 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.9 4 64.2 61.1 47 64
Med -2.3 4 18.5 17.1 73 82-41 14.6 24.0 54 9-19 2.0 1.7 95 5628 0.7 0.1 33 55
1.3 GDP by Sector %10 22 13.9 11.4 46 55
4 16.2 -15 27.4 32.3 49 27Med 7.1 -14 59.3 54.4 67 64
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)2.72 19 96.5 66.2 77 100
-19 66.1 35.5 82 100-31 43.0 28.8 74 80-4 6.5 6.5 67 50
22.31.4 Openness (% GDP)
15 49.4 38.3 58 82Rank % 1 48.8 48.3 68 64
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 1 98.2 85.2 67 641.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4 3.9 4.0 4.1 43 Exports (2016)37 4.9 6.4 6.3 53 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Russia 10.3 0.0 6 26.0 29.0 37.0 18 #2 Partner Turkey 6.6 0.0
-25 6.7 5.9 5.8 53 #3 Partner China 6.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts27 4.0 5.7 5.7 50
1.3 Infrastructure-11 4.1 3.8 4.0 4423 3.3 5.8 6.9 27
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 11.2 11.3 8.3 90 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
-12 33.5 43.4 44.4 48 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 2.8 3.6 0.8 76 -3 42.4 42.2 -0.6 16.0 72
1.5 Health -1 70.1 72.7 0.4 57.9 676 68.3 71.2 73.6 42 -21 68.0 64.8 -0.5 65.6 52
-12 13.7 8.6 14.5 25 -5 24.2 30.2 2.5 9.6 83Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -4 106.3 124.6 1.7 23.0 84
-3.4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 88
2017-27
68
2017
3.4 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
4322
3000
10.847.81.4
13.7
79
22
56
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
3
92
60
70147176
38
4.17.1
31.0
0
6.35.8
4.27.6
39
15
12
2911
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
16.2
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
5824
External
79.7
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
4
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.9
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.6-6.511.1
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
-3.4
2.1
REER79.7
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 4
77117663
34
97
Region
74
Real Rate
354472
63.7
-1.3
30.4
7388
76
Life expectancy (yrs) 36 7170.9
51
68
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
68
58.7
56.447.4
74Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
53
624263Remittances2
Imports G&S 6936.6
3.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.8
4.5
8.2
2018f1.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
70
Uzbekistan
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.1 -0.2 1.2 7.7 5.4 3.8 0.2 0.1 0.3 5.8 3.0 5.6 -0.7 0.4 0.1 7.6 5.1 5.0 32.6 32.5 32.5 4.2 5.3 5.6 -3.9 -4.1 -4.4 4.7 5.0 4.8 32.4 32.4 32.2 5.9
0.9 0.7 0.8 1.5 6.4 1.3 3.5 2.9 4.8 5.2
5.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.0 1.2 1.6 2.3 3.6 1.2 5.9 6.4 10.0 14.0 20.0 3.3 4.1 0.5 -1.3 -1.4 -2.0 2.6 7.3 8.5 20.0 24.0 30.0 3.6 4.1 2.7 1.4 2.3 4.8 5.0 8.3 1.8 10.0 12.0 10.0 0.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
5.8 3.8 15.2 14.8 15.3 2.1 5.0 0.0 9.0 9.0 14.0 1.5 5.8 4.9 20.7 19.9 20.0 9.1 2.3 Other
0.8 7.4 0.3 4.0 3.0 5.6 6.1 0.0 7.6 8.0 3.5 4.5 0.1 7.2 4.6 -17.7 -16.8 -16.9 2.3 4.3 0.0 111.9 111.0 68.2 0.0
1.0- 3.0- 4.0 0.3 4.1 4.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.5 0.59.9 0.0 1.2 1.3 0.9 6.1 0.3 2.60.5 7.7 4.4 2.5 3.4 8.2 1.2 6.75.8 0.7 10.4 10.2 11.7 2.7 10.0 9.44.1 1.6 -4.3 -4.0 -2.2 5.2 4.0 4.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth8.18 0 45.1 41.1 40 64
-21 4.5 2.8 88 821 31.9 9.1 68 824 6.6 9.8 22 27
2.012 5.0 5.6 27 29
0.91 1.2 GDP by Activity %0.3 2 58.4 61.1 34 45
Med -2.3 0 16.9 17.1 65 4526 25.2 24.0 40 64
1.7-18 -0.5 0.1 74 45
1.3 GDP by Sector %8.18 7 18.5 11.4 76 91 11.7 10 21 34.4 32.3 47 64
Med 7.1 -14 47.0 54.4 27 181.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
0 7 2.3 66.2 7 9-8 19.4 35.5 20 08 31.5 28.8 20 70
5.6 6.5 4022.3
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-36 20.0 38.3 57 9
Rank % -38 20.5 48.3 51 18∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -35 40.5 85.2 50 01.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4.1 Exports (2016)38 4.6 6.3 6.3 50 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Switzerland 32.1 0.0 1 17.0 21.0 37.0 2 #2 Partner China 20.6 0.0 -2 6.8 6.7 5.8 79 #3 Partner Russia 9.7 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts32 3.7 5.7 5.7 50
1.3 Infrastructure4.0
36 5.7 7.2 6.9 591.4 Human Capital and Innovation
-6 10.0 10.0 8.3 76 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM44.4 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270.8 -4 31.9 35.6 1.0 16.0 64
1.5 Health -4 36.6 39.5 0.8 57.9 1473.6 8 67.5 67.6 0.0 65.6 7914.5 10 6.6 10.4 5.7 9.6 41
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 4 16.0 27.7 7.3 23.0 44
1.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 39
2017-27
18
2017
0.1
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
11
0440
10.847.81.4
13.7
82
17
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
22
82 30
4.17.1
31.06.35.8
4.27.6
11
1
33
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
10
Med 2.8
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
4066
External
68.2
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
11.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
0.3
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
0.61.6
13.9
Tourism2
Med 92.7
Med -3.1
Med 5.4
M2 Stock
1.2
4.5
REER68.2
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 11.7
6567
55
69
13
Region
69
Real Rate
26
40
63.7
-1.3
30.4
7031
68
Life expectancy (yrs) 70.9
36
83
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
14
58.7
56.447.4
20Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
13
122859Remittances2
Imports G&S 1136.6
9.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.5
3.2
2018f4.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
71
0.04.8 3.6
4.5
5.0
E Asia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1
2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum12015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)5.4 4.6 6.2 2.6 2.0 0.3 9.6 5.0 5.2 2.6- 2.6- -2.7 7.6
5.0 5.2 4.3 5.7 2.7 6.9 8.0 3.9 18.6 17.8 18.1 5.6 5.8 5.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.2 9.8 7.2 5.4 19.1 19.7 19.9 5.9 0.1 4.7 -3.0 -3.0 -2.6 4.1 6.6 10.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 10.0 2.5 3.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 5.4 6.1 5.0 0.6- 1.0- -1.0 5.9
7.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.1 Price Indicators (%)
2.3 0.3 1.1 1.8 3.7 0.1 7.8 7.2 8.9 12.1 14.2 5.2 9.5 7.6 -10.5 -3.0 0.0 6.7 5.8 8.6 8.6 9.0 11.4 3.5
5.6 2.8 3.1 2.7 3.9 5.6 5.8 5.5 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.8 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 7.3 8.0 4.6- 1.3- 3.5 7.0
4.6 1.6 204.9 207.2 232.2 2.4 1.5 8.9 2.6 3.4 2.5 8.4
2.7 0.1 53.7 56.0 65.8 0.0 3. Other
2.8 CPI 1.8 9.5 2.2 2.5 1.9 3.7 4.6 6.2 5.0 4.6 5.5 5.4 5.8 1.7 -209.1 -203.7 -229.7 2.5 0.1 4.7 109.3 105.3 105.1 8.4 6.1 5.1 101.0 100.4 100.4 4.9 3.6 6.4 1.0 1.8 1.0 3.2
5.4 8.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score8.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 5.5 5.0
7.6 0.0 3.6 3.7 3.1 5.5 -2.7 6.35.2 5.8 33.2 33.4 34.5 8.3 0.3 9.0
2.5 3.5 6.9 7.6 8.1 0.3 2.3 3.60.0 5.6 -29.4 -13.6 -14.8 6.4 1.0 7.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank # of 8E Asia EM* Africa CIS S Asia CEMEA 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 309.7 66.3 32.3 41.1 246.6 77.1 21 5.5 3.7 3.8 2.8 6.7 4.1 10 41.3 16.9 24.3 9.1 164.7 7.1 2-1 15.0 12.9 3.9 9.8 5.5 29.1 5-1 2.7 1.9 0.9 2.0 4.2 2.3 30 3.5 6.1 11.1 5.6 5.3 7.2 8
1.2 GDP by Activity %0 54.0 63.7 72.0 61.1 67.9 58.3 70 12.3 14.6 14.9 17.1 11.7 18.7 70 25.3 22.2 21.0 24.0 27.5 20.6 20 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.7 3.1 0.3 41 1.5 -1.3 -8.5 0.1 -6.5 2.7 3
1.3 GDP by Sector %1 9.6 8.3 18.0 11.4 16.7 3.4 30 35.8 30.4 26.2 32.3 28.7 30.3 21 53.2 58.7 54.3 54.4 56.3 66.2 6
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)-1 18.2 25.3 24.9 66.2 12.9 39.5 80 136.4 56.4 28.0 35.5 62.2 69.2 20 129.7 47.4 40.4 28.8 55.8 59.4 11 1.9 3.9 4.0 6.5 25.3 1.5 5
-2 8.7 7.1 7.7 22.3 0.2 6.6 41.4 Openness (% GDP)
-2 Exports G&S 65.8 36.6 29.5 38.3 15.5 58.7 3Rank # of 8 1 Imports G&S 54.4 39.9 35.1 48.3 21.1 58.1 1
∆Rank EM -1 123.1 74.4 63.8 85.2 39.4 115.0 21.1 Aggregate
02
1.2 Institutions1-22
1.3 Infrastructure-13
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation Ave % Growth EM* Median Rank # of 81 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-4 0 51.4 52.9 0.3 16.0 1.6 2-2 0 55.2 61.9 1.2 57.9 0.7 5
1.5 Health 1 69.4 66.4 -0.4 65.6 -0.1 3-1 0 9.1 12.9 4.2 9.6 3.4 5-2 0 25.9 38.9 5.0 23.0 5.4 5
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank *EM median is the median of all EM countries and not the median of all regional medians2% C/A Receipts
0.3
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
CPI5
Demographic Forecasts
Population (mm)
Dependancy Ratio (retired)Retired/Child Ratio
18.52027
12.935.4
2017-27 2017
2
5
2
5
61.8 5
29.2 43.5 32.9
Urban Pop. (% total)
2011
4.46.1
34.05.55.3
3.87.2
7.884.20.3
Total Trade
645
63
563
REER Imp. Cover (mths)Med 8.05 / Score 0.3
CA (% GDP)Med 0.25 / Score 9.6
EM*
4.16.3
2011
34
Med 105.1 / Score 8.4
Global Comp. Index (1-7) 4.5 3
2016 2016
6Ease of Business Index (1-10) 6.0
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Macro Risk scoresMacro Road Sign: Risk Time series
Growth
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real GDP (%) Current Acc. Fiscal Bal.5.5 Level Trade Bal. Budget Rev.
-2.7 Net FDI Dom. Cred GrowthNet Port. Flows M2 Growth
Level Exports G&S
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP) Low
Moderate Services Bal. Budget exp.Income Bal. Debt Interest
Qaility Transfers Bal. Primary bal.
Imp. Cover (mths) Overvalued Remittances3
Net Ext. Flow2 CPI5
Currency PPICA Credits MM Rate
Real GDP (%)
Low Imports G&SREER 105.1 Broad Money
8.1 2.3 CA DebitsVulnerability Terms of Trade4
REER4
Real Rate
2018f momentumReal GDP (%) 5.2 4.6
-2.5Short term debt
Imp Cover (mths)External Moderate Domestic Moderate Capital Flight Real Rate6 0.0 4.9
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
Real GDP (%)
Med 5.5 / Score 5.4
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Med -2.65 / Score 7.6
CPI
Med 2.3 / Score 2.8
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high pressure). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Nominal GDP $Real GDP (%) 2.0
Gulf
9.4
Economic Structure
Median
0.5 0.1
67.3 54.913.6 19.2
7.6 4.3
4
4.9
2.9
50.0 160.6
-4.1 2.4
7.1 1.1
4
427
72
26.0
7.5
Competitiveness
41.8 96.94.1
16
25.1
24.5 46.4 33.7 1
M2 StockRemittances2
Tourism2
Corruption Perc. Index (1-100) 33.0 37.05.85.7
3.9 5Getting Electricity (1-10) 6.8 6
4.06.9
Infrastructure Index (1-7)
Contract Enforcement (1-10) 5.7Protecting minority investors 5.6
Patents (applications/mm pop) 0.7 5Internet users (% Pop) 130.2 2Education (ave yrs for pop>25) 7.9 58.3
113.80.8
67
4
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000) 19.0 3Life expectancy (yrs) 74.4 4
14.571.811.8
73.6 55
66.6
2
22
428
772
21
76.7
2.317.2
1031.1
3.0
Working Age Pop. (% total) 64.6
62.2 52.3 71.5
GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
44.116.223.8
13.7 54.3 51.21.1 -0.3 0.8
20.7 23.2
56.1 85.9
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
27.785.684.12.6
0.928.1 45.1
24.5
AgricultureIndustryServices
Net DebtDom Credit Stock
4.2
0.7 4.1
2.5 5.3
Private Con.
2.613.9Population
∆Rank1 LatAm G10 2017
75.2 211.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Region Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
- 5.0 10.0
E AsiaAfrica
CISS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
E AsiaAfrica
CISS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
E AsiaAfrica
CISS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
0.0 5.0 10.0
E AsiaAfrica
CISS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
E AsiaAfrica
CISS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
E AsiaAfrica
CISS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
72
Cambodia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.7 4.2 5.7 -9.4 -8.9 -9.3 7.2 2.9 5.8 2.6- 1.5- -1.9 1.5 0.6 6.3 -19.2 -17.1 -17.6 5.3 2.9 4.2 16.8 17.6 17.9 0.4 8.8 5.8 11.3 9.9 9.6 5.8 4.1 6.7 19.4 19.1 19.8 6.2 6.5 0.0 -6.1 -6.2 -5.6 7.5 5.6 5.2 4.7 4.6 4.5 5.5
1.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
2.1 9.9 9.2 10.8 6.5 10.0 4.4 4.4 23.9 20.7 17.7 1.6 6.8 2.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 4.4 5.6 4.7 15.1 19.4 17.2 3.2 2.6 9.2 -0.2 1.9 -2.8 9.8 5.7 4.9 1.2 3.0 2.7 3.4
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
1.1 0.0 13.5 14.4 16.2 0.1 5.3 2.8 61.7 61.3 64.8 1.4 2.3 Other
3.4 7.4 5.5 3.0 2.6 2.5 5.3 4.8 5.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 5.7 1.1 0.0 -15.2 -16.2 -18.2 0.2 8.2 6.6 112.3 116.1 118.0 9.8
4.6 7.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 8.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score9.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 7.0 6.3
3.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.4 5.8 -1.9 1.87.0 1.8 17.9 18.9 17.2 7.3 -9.3 8.61.2 1.2 6.4 7.4 8.4 0.0 2.7 4.62.3 10.0 -0.2 0.2 -1.8 9.9
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth9.23 8 22.1 309.7 13 15
22 7.0 5.5 70 92-1 16.0 41.3 49 313 4.0 15.0 15 0
2.73.5
3.08 1.2 GDP by Activity %-1.9 -4 76.3 54.0 84 100
Med -2.7 -2 5.4 12.3 2 032 22.0 25.3 13 1514 0.9 0.6 41 55-14 -4.6 1.5 50 15
1.3 GDP by Sector %6.92 -4 25.3 9.6 98 100 8.4 2.7 35 32.8 35.8 24 31
Med 2.3 -8 41.9 53.2 14 231.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
10 8 16.3 18.2 17 4637 62.9 136.4 22 2340 76.8 129.7 37 38-6 2.5 1.9 46 58
8.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
1 64.8 65.8 81 46Rank % 4 69.3 54.4 80 69
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 3 134.1 123.1 83 621.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
10 3.6 3.9 4.1 33 Exports (2016)-1 5.2 5.5 6.3 22 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 17.4 0.0 -4 22.0 21.0 37.0 2 #2 Partner Singapore 8.4 0.0 -1 3.3 3.3 5.8 4 #3 Partner Japan 7.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
-42 6.3 4.8 5.7 321.3 Infrastructure-18 3.8 3.4 4.0 261 5.7 5.6 6.9 24
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-3 5.7 5.8 8.3 23 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM1 0.5 9.0 44.4 7 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
17 0.0 0.2 0.8 18 -1 16.0 18.2 1.4 16.0 491.5 Health -1 21.2 24.3 1.5 57.9 4
19 61.0 71.7 73.6 43 25 64.3 65.5 0.2 65.6 63-15 69.3 32.5 14.5 72 0 6.9 9.2 3.3 9.6 32
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -7 14.1 21.0 4.9 23.0 28
-9.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 35
2017-27
5
2017
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
1718
09
36
7.939.70.7
19.0
5
75
44
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
23
26
6
118
200
87
4.56.0
33.0
83
5.75.6
3.96.8
22
23
6
2527
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.7
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
2193
External
118
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8.4
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1.9
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.5-10.84.4
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
-9.3
7
REER118
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8.4
0465635
60
26
Region
48
Real Rate
18
63.7
-1.3
30.4
3732
50
Life expectancy (yrs) 23 4274.4
80
94
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
86
58.7
56.447.4
82Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
5
607840Remittances2
Imports G&S 8436.6
5.8
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.0
6.3
7.5
2018f7.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
73
China
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.5 7.2 7.5 2.7 1.7 0.8 8.7 6.6 7.4 3.4- 3.8- -4.3 9.8 7.3 8.1 5.1 4.4 3.4 8.1 8.0 2.2 21.8 21.4 21.7 1.9 8.0 5.4 -1.9 -2.2 -2.2 9.4 5.1 8.6 25.1 25.2 26.0 9.6 5.2 3.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 5.0 10.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.6 9.1 4.2 5.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 8.5 5.9 7.7 2.9- 3.1- -3.7 9.8
9.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
8.7 2.4 0.6 -0.4 0.2 9.3 3.2 1.9 23.7 20.1 12.9 1.1 4.8 4.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 0.3 3.5 3.6 13.3 11.3 9.5 0.8 8.5 5.7 3.3 1.3 1.0 9.1 5.8 4.4 1.5 2.1 1.7 2.5
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 7.3 8.7 5.2- 1.4- 6.0 8.9 7.9 1.9 2619.3 2454.6 2653.0 1.4 1.5 5.4 2.4 3.9 3.7 1.4 7.5 4.7 21.3 19.5 19.7 9.0 2.3 Other
2.5 9.0 3.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.5 4.5 5.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 1.5 6.1 0.8 -2315.1 -2258.3 -2552.7 1.0 0.6 4.0 115.9 110.1 108.9 8.0 2.7 6.2 107.6 111.1 109.3 0.6 3.6 4.6 0.9 1.8 2.0 1.0 4.0 5.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 6.8 0.49.7 7.8 6.6 7.5 7.9 9.9 -4.3 9.66.4 6.5 24.1 25.9 27.7 8.2 0.8 7.96.8 7.5 20.4 19.1 17.2 9.5 1.7 3.76.3 0.8 -442.6 -512.3 -216.3 3.8 2.0 2.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth8.46 0 12111.0 309.7 100 100
1 6.8 5.5 91 850 1372.0 41.3 100 100
17 17.0 15.0 41 544 6.8 2.7 96 1002 3.9 3.5 23 82
7.7 1.2 GDP by Activity %-4.3 -4 39.1 54.0 7 8
Med -2.7 1 14.6 12.3 49 771 43.3 25.3 98 100
-17 1.1 0.6 75 64-12 1.9 1.5 82 54
1.3 GDP by Sector %3.84 -7 8.3 9.6 57 33 17.2 1.7 -3 39.5 35.8 89 92
Med 2.3 9 52.2 53.2 19 461.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
8.46 2 -13.0 18.2 5 153 220.7 136.4 96 920 207.3 129.7 98 85
13 1.5 1.9 17 33-7 2.2 8.7 14 0
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-23 19.7 65.8 42 0
Rank % -6 17.8 54.4 13 0∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -15 37.5 123.1 24 01.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
0 4.8 4.9 4.1 91 Exports (2016)14 6.0 6.4 6.3 54 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 20.8 0.0 -2 39.0 40.0 37.0 57 #2 Partner Hong Kong 11.3 0.0 12 7.0 7.8 5.8 99 #3 Partner Japan 7.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-10 5.0 4.5 5.7 26
1.3 Infrastructure16 4.1 4.5 4.0 69-2 6.8 6.9 6.9 47
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-7 7.3 7.5 8.3 43 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM4 28.5 49.3 44.4 59 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20275 6.5 13.4 0.8 91 -1 1372.0 1,408.5 0.2 16.0 99
1.5 Health 7 57.9 66.9 1.5 57.9 5711 73.1 75.4 73.6 74 -2 71.7 68.7 -0.4 65.6 88-14 17.8 10.9 14.5 32 1 14.8 22.1 4.9 9.6 70
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 60.2 93.8 5.6 23.0 74
0.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 74
2017-27
50
2017
1.7 4.9
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
6755
679127
7.939.70.7
19.0
87
36
53
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
49
50
54
44679086
47
4.56.0
33.0
33
5.75.6
3.96.8
91
40
60
6736
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.7
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
10092
External
108.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
17.2
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
6.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-4.3
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.41.22.0
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
0.8
6.8
REER108.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 17.2
50995770
86
8
Region
100
Real Rate
5810025
63.7
-1.3
30.4
9069
100
Life expectancy (yrs) 62 6774.4
3
50
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
8
58.7
56.447.4
18Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
28
9998306
Remittances2
Imports G&S 636.6
5.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum0.9
5.5
3.9
2018f5.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
74
Hong Kong
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
6.1 2.9 2.4 3.3 4.6 6.4 4.9 1.1 8.0 0.6 4.5 1.7 7.3 2.3 4.1 -7.4 -5.5 -4.8 6.7 0.1 9.3 18.8 23.0 19.8 7.7 9.4 6.4 9.8 7.6 7.0 3.9 5.8 4.0 18.2 18.6 18.1 5.4 1.5 1.6 1.9 3.4 4.9 0.4 2.8 2.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 0.1
7.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.3 6.2 33.1 14.2 9.8 2.8 7.3 8.5 4.7- 3.2 17.2 7.2 9.7 6.2 -34.2 -5.5 0.1 7.7 6.2 7.3 5.5 7.7 11.6 6.6 8.9 5.7 36.5 18.9 16.2 2.8 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.4 1.5 1.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 8.0 6.8 2.7- 1.3 3.6 7.1 5.5 1.2 771.7 765.5 822.6 0.7 4.5 2.0 0.2 0.3 1.0 5.6 7.5 3.4 195.9 187.4 192.8 7.2 2.3 Other
1.0 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.6 6.6 2.4 2.0 3.7 6.1 5.9 1.5 -761.4 -750.6 -801.3 0.9 7.6 0.2 112.1 115.5 107.7 8.4 4.8 5.2 100.4 100.4 100.4 2.4 3.6 2.1 2.8- 2.1- -0.5 2.7 2.7 6.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.9 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.7 3.15.0 5.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 6.2 1.7 9.64.5 4.1 26.0 23.8 20.7 3.8 6.4 5.13.0 4.3 7.2 7.8 8.0 0.9 1.5 2.31.1 3.2 -63.2 10.9 39.7 2.5 -0.5 3.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth3.07 2 335.6 309.7 78 62
30 3.7 5.5 18 310 7.4 41.3 32 231 61.6 15.0 95 929 2.0 2.7 42 22-5 3.1 3.5 17 27
0 1.2 GDP by Activity %1.7 16 67.0 54.0 42 69
Med -2.7 -1 10.0 12.3 14 2313 21.7 25.3 29 8-2 0.2 0.6 25 27
-19 1.1 1.5 85 461.3 GDP by Sector %
3.07 0 0.1 9.6 0 0 8 1.5 -1 7.7 35.8 1 0
Med 2.3 0 92.2 53.2 100 1001.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
6.92 -19 20.1 18.2 54 543 235.0 136.4 97 1000 533.9 129.7 100 1002 0.2 1.9 6 17
8.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
1 192.8 65.8 99 100Rank % 1 191.7 54.4 99 100
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 1 384.5 123.1 99 1001.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
0 5.3 5.5 4.1 99 Exports (2016)6.3 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Switzerland 8.9 0.0 0 77.0 77.0 37.0 98 #2 Partner United Kingdom 8.4 0.0
5.8 #3 Partner United States 8.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts5.7
1.3 Infrastructure-1 6.7 6.4 4.0 99
6.91.4 Human Capital and Innovation
0 9.7 10.0 8.3 76 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM0 61.2 74.6 44.4 86 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
0.0 0.8 0 7.4 7.9 0.7 16.0 341.5 Health 0 100.0 100.0 0.0 57.9 99
0 82.3 83.8 73.6 100 -63 72.2 62.2 -1.4 65.6 28-3 1.8 1.7 14.5 1 13 22.6 38.1 6.9 9.6 99
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 141.9 168.5 1.9 23.0 99
6.4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 99
2017-27
99
2017
-1.1 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
92
92
7.939.70.7
19.0
100
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
76
87
8983
0
4
4.56.0
33.0
0
5.75.6
3.96.8
99
98
100
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.5
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
8049
External
107.7
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
1.7
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.45.52.1
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
6.4
3.7
REER107.7
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8
13432366
0
35
Region
32
Real Rate
965112
63.7
-1.3
30.4
9385
34
Life expectancy (yrs) 100 10074.4
58
0
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
100
58.7
56.447.4
100Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
100
100100
8Remittances2
Imports G&S 10036.6
6.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum2.8
8.2
6.5
2018f1.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
75
Indonesia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.8 4.3 4.1 -2.0 -1.8 -1.5 6.5 4.4 6.7 2.6- 2.5- -2.8 9.4 4.9 4.3 1.6 1.7 1.9 7.0 6.3 4.3 13.1 12.5 12.8 9.2 1.3 5.8 -1.0 -0.8 -0.8 1.3 2.8 7.3 15.7 15.0 15.7 2.1 3.3 2.4 -3.3 -3.2 -3.0 4.9 8.0 9.9 1.4 1.5 1.8 9.7 9.4 4.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 7.6 3.7 5.5 1.2- 1.0- -1.1 8.5
9.4 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
1.2 3.5 1.2 1.7 1.9 0.7 5.2 7.0 9.1 9.3 11.5 2.6 5.1 5.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 5.0 6.5 7.0 9.0 10.0 11.1 1.8 2.9 3.6 -0.8 -0.1 0.4 5.1 1.8 4.6 6.4 3.5 3.3 0.7
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.3 3.7 4.4 7.9 4.5 2.7 5.5 1.4 184.5 181.6 207.1 2.4 4.6 8.1 5.8 6.0 4.7 7.5 8.7 3.1 21.2 19.1 20.0 9.4 2.3 Other
0.7 6.8 7.7 5.2 4.9 4.5 3.1 5.5 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 1.8 5.5 2.1 -202.0 -198.4 -222.0 2.6 7.7 2.2 97.7 103.6 97.8 3.5 3.1 5.7 96.3 97.8 97.3 7.6 0.9 6.8 0.6- 2.4 1.4 1.8 1.9 6.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 5.0 2.75.2 4.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.8 -2.8 7.04.9 5.2 36.3 36.1 36.4 3.6 -1.5 6.72.2 5.5 7.7 8.8 8.6 0.7 3.3 2.53.1 7.6 -13.3 -6.3 -16.4 6.8 1.4 5.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth3.84 1 1019.0 309.7 93 85
-1 5.0 5.5 76 380 260.6 41.3 98 923 12.4 15.0 45 38
-14 2.8 2.7 82 56-32 5.5 3.5 77 91
5.39 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.8 3 57.3 54.0 30 62
Med -2.7 -2 9.0 12.3 13 158 31.9 25.3 81 85
23 1.7 0.6 48 73-10 0.1 1.5 70 38
1.3 GDP by Sector %8.46 0 13.8 9.6 67 67 8.6 3.3 1 40.4 35.8 87 100
Med 2.3 -7 45.8 53.2 16 311.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
1.53 -12 20.9 18.2 51 62-6 43.8 136.4 43 8
-12 40.9 129.7 49 85 4.5 1.9 50 83
8.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
-11 20.0 65.8 31 8Rank % -8 19.0 54.4 16 8
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -9 39.0 123.1 20 81.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4 4.4 4.5 4.1 82 Exports (2016)12 5.9 6.2 6.3 47 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 12.8 0.0 20 32.0 37.0 37.0 50 #2 Partner United States 11.5 0.0 2 3.7 3.8 5.8 12 #3 Partner Japan 10.9 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
-18 6.0 5.7 5.7 501.3 Infrastructure
7 3.7 3.8 4.0 4520 7.1 8.1 6.9 75
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 5.5 5.8 8.3 23 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-7 8.7 17.1 44.4 19 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-2 0.8 1.0 0.8 54 0 260.6 289.3 1.0 16.0 98
1.5 Health 6 55.2 61.4 1.1 57.9 48-6 70.8 70.8 73.6 36 13 67.3 68.1 0.1 65.6 82-5 30.7 24.5 14.5 64 1 7.9 11.0 3.9 9.6 43
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 1 19.4 30.6 5.7 23.0 45
-1.5
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 44
2017-27
41
2017
0.5 4.9
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
5036
501855
7.939.70.7
19.0
10
68
38
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
54
24
27
11256057
69
4.56.0
33.0
67
5.75.6
3.96.8
78
35
30
4255
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
3.3
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
9475
External
97.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8.6
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.8
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.2-1.94.2
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
-1.5
5
REER97.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8.6
10907259
88
38
Region
98
Real Rate
486744
63.7
-1.3
30.4
6841
98
Life expectancy (yrs) 42 3374.4
33
67
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
10
58.7
56.447.4
20Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
8
373755Remittances2
Imports G&S 736.6
6.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.4
1.5
6.2
2018f5.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
76
Laos
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.1 0.0 4.2 -15.8 -7.8 -6.9 7.1 8.4 4.8 4.2- 5.8- -5.7 9.5 0.0 4.1 -17.1 -8.7 -7.8 4.8 7.3 4.8 19.8 18.8 18.9 6.2 5.7 7.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 9.1 6.2 5.2 24.0 24.6 24.7 7.4 7.6 2.2 -1.4 -1.6 -1.4 8.9 5.3 4.4 1.3 1.2 1.3 9.6
9.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.6 3.1 9.9 6.3 7.4 1.7 4.0 5.4 19.2 10.7 13.7 1.5 7.5 10.0 0.0 0.2 2.4 10.0 2.8 6.3 16.3 7.6 12.3 1.0 0.4 2.3 -5.9 -1.5 0.5 5.9 5.3 3.6 1.3 1.5 0.2 0.5
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
0.1 1.0 4.0 4.6 4.9 0.3 5.0 5.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 7.7 7.0 5.5 31.0 29.3 29.0 9.7 2.3 Other
0.5 4.4 7.4 2.3 2.5 1.7 5.7 3.2 2.3 7.3 7.0 6.7 0.1 8.6 3.1 -6.3 -5.9 -6.1 0.6 8.7 0.7 118.6 121.5 117.9 9.1
5.2 3.8 5.2 5.0 6.3 3.4 1.0 5.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 6.7 0.110.0 3.4 7.7 9.9 9.6 9.4 -5.7 8.56.3 3.0 68.2 80.4 61.7 6.7 -6.9 6.35.8 3.2 2.2 2.0 2.1 8.5 0.2 2.57.5 1.6 -0.7 -1.2 -0.6 1.6 6.3 4.9
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth7.69 10 16.9 309.7 6 8
8 6.7 5.5 80 771 6.9 41.3 28 155 6.6 15.0 23 15
2.71 1.5 3.5 1 9
9.24 1.2 GDP by Activity %-5.7 4 70.8 54.0 67 85
Med -2.7 6 12.1 12.3 21 46-3 28.1 25.3 83 69
0.6-11 -11.0 1.5 29 0
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 -17 15.8 9.6 91 75
2.1 0.2 19 30.2 35.8 29 15Med 2.3 -10 30.1 53.2 11 0
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)9.23 -6 82.0 18.2 96 92
36 58.8 136.4 15 1530 57.4 129.7 29 230 1.7 1.9 32 42
-14 14.3 8.7 83 671.4 Openness (% GDP)
-1 29.0 65.8 40 23Rank % -4 39.9 54.4 54 31
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 5 68.9 123.1 40 231.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
39 0.0 4.0 4.1 40 Exports (2016)1 5.0 5.3 6.3 17 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Thailand 39.8 0.0 19 21.0 30.0 37.0 23 #2 Partner China 28.4 0.0 7 5.6 5.8 5.8 49 #3 Partner Vietnam 13.7 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts6 1.7 3.5 5.7 7
1.3 Infrastructure46 0.0 3.9 4.0 48-10 5.8 4.9 6.9 14
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 4.4 4.6 8.3 14 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM13 0.0 14.3 44.4 14 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202716 0.0 0.2 0.8 16 2 6.9 7.8 1.4 16.0 33
1.5 Health 6 40.7 49.1 2.1 57.9 2928 0.0 68.2 73.6 28 42 63.1 66.4 0.5 65.6 7089 0.0 53.8 14.5 92 -2 6.4 7.7 2.0 9.6 27
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -3 12.3 17.9 4.6 23.0 22
-6.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 26
2017-27
22
2017
4.6 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
259
17369
7.939.70.7
19.0
41
0
0
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
24
16
0
017100
0
4.56.0
33.0
100
5.75.6
3.96.8
0
16
4
500
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.2
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
1789
External
117.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
2.1
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
6.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-5.7
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.4-6.61.9
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
-6.9
6.7
REER117.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 2.1
2780
18
49
90
Region
29
Real Rate
28
3
63.7
-1.3
30.4
2729
31
Life expectancy (yrs) 0 1774.4
71
73
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
45
58.7
56.447.4
39Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
0
52603369
Remittances2
Imports G&S 5036.6
6.8
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum1.8
4.3
4.7
2018f6.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
77
Malaysia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
6.7 6.2 4.7 3.1 2.3 2.5 8.8 4.6 4.5 3.2- 3.1- -3.0 1.3 7.1 5.4 9.4 8.2 8.0 9.0 9.3 6.2 18.9 17.3 16.9 10.0 3.9 5.4 -1.8 -1.5 -1.6 9.2 1.7 4.0 22.1 20.4 19.9 0.1 5.3 3.9 -2.7 -2.8 -2.6 3.2 6.4 3.6 2.1 2.2 2.1 8.3 1.2 2.2 -1.9 -1.5 -1.3 0.3 4.4 4.7 1.1- 1.0- -0.9 1.2
1.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
1.6 5.4 -0.2 1.2 1.0 0.3 4.0 5.7 7.8 6.6 7.5 1.9 5.7 5.0 -2.4 -1.2 -1.3 3.9 5.3 7.7 2.8 3.1 5.8 2.2 3.9 5.0 2.8 3.5 3.5 7.9 5.0 7.7 2.1 2.1 3.7 8.5
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 7.1 7.7 7.5- 1.1- 7.5 7.7 6.2 1.6 225.2 215.9 244.5 4.3 5.0 9.0 3.1 3.1 2.5 9.0 8.6 0.0 70.6 67.7 75.8 7.3 2.3 Other
8.5 4.8 7.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.6 4.2 6.6 5.0 4.2 5.8 6.7 6.1 1.4 -216.1 -209.0 -237.0 2.5 3.7 8.3 89.9 88.4 92.9 1.0 8.3 5.7 99.6 96.7 96.1 9.0 5.0 8.3 1.0 1.0 -1.2 9.3 2.8 10.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 6.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 5.8 6.03.7 1.9 4.3 4.2 3.9 8.4 -3.0 1.18.0 9.1 80.2 87.0 97.8 9.9 2.5 8.34.4 6.6 6.1 6.3 5.9 9.5 3.7 6.02.5 5.7 -39.4 -22.3 -26.6 3.4 -1.2 7.9
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth5.38 -4 304.9 309.7 80 38
36 5.8 5.5 46 540 31.6 41.3 67 46-1 29.4 15.0 83 6916 4.0 2.7 69 670 3.4 3.5 16 45
6.16 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3 14 55.5 54.0 15 54
Med -2.7 -9 12.4 12.3 41 5445 26.1 25.3 27 62-22 0.1 0.6 38 9-11 5.9 1.5 92 62
1.3 GDP by Sector %9.23 1 8.8 9.6 51 42 5.9 3.7 -2 37.1 35.8 83 77
Med 2.3 8 54.2 53.2 25 541.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
0.76 38 40.4 18.2 28 77-1 146.1 136.4 95 54-1 131.8 129.7 95 541 0.7 1.9 18 25
8.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
-9 75.8 65.8 98 77Rank % -3 69.9 54.4 89 77
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -8 145.7 123.1 98 771.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
2 4.9 5.2 4.1 94 Exports (2016)-4 7.9 7.8 6.3 92 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 18.8 0.0 0 49.0 49.0 37.0 76 #2 Partner United States 14.1 0.0
-17 7.3 6.7 5.8 76 #3 Partner Singapore 12.3 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-1 8.7 8.0 5.7 98
1.3 Infrastructure6 5.5 5.6 4.0 954 9.0 9.4 6.9 98
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation1 9.2 9.5 8.3 68 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-5 57.6 67.5 44.4 77 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 9.6 11.6 0.8 89 -1 31.6 35.7 1.3 16.0 65
1.5 Health 2 76.0 80.9 0.6 57.9 80-6 74.4 75.0 73.6 69 5 69.4 68.5 -0.1 65.6 864 5.9 7.2 14.5 20 2 9.1 12.9 4.2 9.6 50
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -3 25.9 38.9 5.0 23.0 54
2.5
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 57
2017-27
78
2017
-0.4 4.9
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
7582
757391
7.939.70.7
19.0
93
99
89
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
93
67
82
78758089
17
4.56.0
33.0
25
5.75.6
3.96.8
92
97
76
8391
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
3.7
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
7683
External
92.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.9
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityHigh
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
5.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.82.22.9
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
2.5
5.8
REER92.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.9
31741580
81
67
Region
67
Real Rate
828516
63.7
-1.3
30.4
8148
66
Life expectancy (yrs) 76 5874.4
29
52
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
90
58.7
56.447.4
89Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
34
949419Remittances2
Imports G&S 8536.6
3.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.5
4.0
5.5
2018f5.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
78
Mongolia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.2 4.5 4.3 -8.1 -6.3 -3.8 1.8 10.0 1.5 4.6- 15.4- -10.0 8.9 2.7 4.1 4.8 12.0 14.6 0.4 7.3 7.7 26.2 24.5 22.9 9.8 9.9 2.6 -6.1 -12.0 -10.0 7.7 10.0 0.5 30.9 39.9 32.8 2.4 4.8 7.4 -8.3 -8.2 -9.5 8.0 2.4 8.8 1.5 1.9 1.2 8.6
8.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
10.0 0.0 0.7 -37.4 10.1 5.3 5.2 5.3 8.7 13.5 19.6 3.1 9.9 0.4 0.4 18.9 3.0 4.9 8.1 4.7 5.5- 20.2 18.0 3.8
10.0 0.0 -7.4 -43.6 6.3 2.1 2.9 7.5 5.8 0.6 6.9 2.9 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
3.0 1.0 5.5 6.0 7.1 0.2 2.3 7.8 12.0 13.0 12.0 3.0 2.2 0.0 45.7 50.8 73.2 0.0 2.3 Other
2.9 5.5 7.4 4.8 4.7 4.0 9.4 4.1 7.5 2.4 1.0 5.2 3.2 4.6 3.4 -6.5 -6.7 -7.5 3.6 1.8 0.7 109.8 102.8 91.0 1.5
2.8 7.6 6.2 12.4 5.1 2.8 5.9 9.8 0.4 0.5 0.7 7.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 5.2 3.47.2 0.6 3.9 4.3 3.0 6.7 -10.0 7.14.5 0.2 184.0 180.6 126.2 8.0 -3.8 2.85.4 3.4 3.0 2.8 3.7 6.0 6.9 2.70.0 10.0 -0.2 6.7 -3.3 8.2 5.1 3.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth4.61 0 11.1 309.7 7 0
-8 5.2 5.5 86 463 3.1 41.3 13 0
10 12.9 15.0 39 462.73.5 37
10 1.2 GDP by Activity %-10 -7 50.9 54.0 28 38
Med -2.7 -22 13.4 12.3 61 62-25 25.3 25.3 95 54-12 2.5 0.6 94 9166 7.9 1.5 19 77
1.3 GDP by Sector %10 -13 13.0 9.6 77 58
3.7 6.9 18 36.7 35.8 61 69Med 2.3 1 50.3 53.2 20 38
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)0 33 190.9 18.2 66 100
34 81.1 136.4 40 388 53.0 129.7 47 15
-12 4.0 1.9 64 758.7
1.4 Openness (% GDP)16 73.2 65.8 71 69
Rank % 3 65.3 54.4 79 62∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 13 138.5 123.1 74 691.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-8 3.7 3.8 4.1 22 Exports (2016)15 6.2 6.8 6.3 65 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 77.6 0.0 7 36.0 38.0 37.0 53 #2 Partner Switzerland 17.1 0.0
-38 7.2 5.8 5.8 51 #3 Partner Italy 0.9 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts2 6.7 6.8 5.7 85
1.3 Infrastructure17 2.3 3.3 4.0 234 5.6 5.5 6.9 23
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-3 8.3 8.3 8.3 52 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-3 13.1 27.0 44.4 33 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202719 0.2 0.7 0.8 48 1 3.1 3.5 1.3 16.0 17
1.5 Health 4 73.6 79.3 0.8 57.9 77-4 66.6 67.5 73.6 27 2 66.3 65.5 -0.1 65.6 64-6 33.5 26.4 14.5 67 8 6.1 9.3 5.3 9.6 34
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 13.6 21.5 5.8 23.0 30
-3.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 32
2017-27
72
2017
5.9 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
864
584573
7.939.70.7
19.0
90
83
6
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
18
56
36
56335029
73
4.56.0
33.0
75
5.75.6
3.96.8
30
50
46
818
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
6.9
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
778
External
91
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3.7
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
5.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-10
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-8.1-9.66.1
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
-3.8
5.2
REER91
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3.7
39698286
80
100
Region
16
Real Rate
49
63.7
-1.3
30.4
6226
16
Life expectancy (yrs) 31 874.4
21
63
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
88
58.7
56.447.4
88Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
21
755652Remittances2
Imports G&S 8236.6
4.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.8
3.6
6.7
2018f4.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
79
Myanmar
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
2.4 3.7 8.2 -3.9 -3.1 -5.3 9.3 5.5 5.5 3.0- 3.1- -3.2 5.7 4.5 8.1 -6.0 -5.7 -8.0 9.4 3.2 0.9 12.0 12.5 13.8 0.4 9.9 4.4 2.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 7.5 9.1 14.9 15.6 17.0 9.8 1.8 5.5 -4.3 -3.4 -3.5 2.2 1.3 3.7 4.0 4.7 4.9 0.2
5.7 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
8.2 0.8 6.5 5.0 7.4 0.0 5.3 4.0 28.1 29.5 24.0 4.7 1.0 6.3 30.7 17.4 21.2 1.8
6.1 4.6 2.6 1.9 2.1 7.2 4.0 3.0 9.5 7.0 2.3 2.2 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
5.2 0.5 18.0 17.9 19.8 0.3 10.0 6.2 10.0 7.3 7.0 9.9 2.6 3.0 17.4 19.6 21.5 3.7 2.3 Other
2.2 3.6 5.0 2.2 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.0 6.8 7.3 6.4 7.2 2.4 6.3 0.2 -20.4 -19.9 -23.3 0.3 4.7 2.2 108.8 108.2 102.2 5.5 5.4 6.6 101.0 98.1 86.4 8.1 5.0 3.1 0.5 0.4 4.7 3.3 1.3 8.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 9.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
5.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 7.2 2.04.2 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 -3.2 6.73.9 3.6 20.9 16.5 12.5 1.3 -5.3 9.34.2 5.0 2.8 3.5 3.5 8.8 2.3 5.65.6 6.6 0.0 -0.5 -1.9 6.5 4.7 9.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth10 13 66.3 309.7 36 23
0 7.2 5.5 94 100-1 53.4 41.3 81 624 6.2 15.0 21 8
2.7-4 3.6 3.5 21 55
6.93 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.2 -54 50.7 54.0 74 31
Med -2.7 44 15.2 12.3 8 8585 38.1 25.3 7 9213 0.2 0.6 9 27-30 -4.2 1.5 71 23
1.3 GDP by Sector %4.61 -7 24.7 9.6 99 92 3.5 2.3 59 35.4 35.8 14 46
Med 2.3 -6 39.9 53.2 8 81.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
3.84 -29 3.4 18.2 46 38-2 0.0 136.4 4 03 0.1 129.7 0 0
20 3.8 1.9 26 678.7
1.4 Openness (% GDP)6 21.5 65.8 17 15
Rank % 26 28.1 54.4 1 15∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 20 49.6 123.1 4 151.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4 0.0 3.3 4.1 5 Exports (2016)1 4.2 4.5 6.3 4 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 36.5 0.0 14 15.0 28.0 37.0 15 #2 Partner Thailand 20.5 0.0 -2 2.7 2.5 5.8 1 #3 Partner India 9.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-1 2.3 2.8 5.7 1
1.3 Infrastructure1 0.0 2.4 4.0 1-7 5.8 5.2 6.9 17
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation8.3 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
1 0.0 2.1 44.4 1 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 0.0 0.0 0.8 0 -2 53.4 57.8 0.8 16.0 78
1.5 Health 2 35.2 41.0 1.6 57.9 1721 0.0 65.1 73.6 22 20 67.4 68.9 0.2 65.6 8978 0.0 39.8 14.5 81 0 8.5 11.6 3.7 9.6 45
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 2 21.4 34.6 6.2 23.0 49
-5.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 47
2017-27
15
2017
-1.4 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
00
800
7.939.70.7
19.0
3
2
0
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
25
0 000
0
4.56.0
33.0
92
5.75.6
3.96.8
0
3
0
09
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.3
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
5094
External
102.2
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3.5
DomesticHigh Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
7.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.2
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.5-6.18.4
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
-5.3
7.2
REER102.2
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3.5
54952340
75
16
Region
80
Real Rate
25
18
63.7
-1.3
30.4
6945
80
Life expectancy (yrs) 0 074.4
19
91
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
25
58.7
56.447.4
23Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
2
23
47Remittances2
Imports G&S 2836.6
7.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum3.9
6.4
6.3
2018f6.7
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
80
Philippines
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
7.0 8.6 5.0 2.5 -0.3 -0.3 9.6 9.0 3.9 0.9- 2.4- -2.1 6.0 10.0 7.4 -8.0 -11.7 -12.8 9.9 8.0 6.4 15.9 15.2 14.9 5.1 3.5 3.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.3 8.6 2.2 16.8 17.6 17.0 6.8 2.5 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.2 2.4 0.7 2.3 2.1 1.9 0.2 3.4 2.9 8.0 8.2 8.5 5.2 9.4 4.5 1.4 0.3- -0.2 8.6
6.0 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.5 5.9 0.0 1.9 1.8 0.1 8.7 3.3 11.4 17.0 14.7 7.9 10.0 5.3 -3.6 0.2 0.4 7.0 6.4 5.5 9.1 13.3 14.9 6.3 6.3 5.3 2.5 1.6 1.5 8.3 5.6 7.0 1.4 1.8 3.1 3.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.3 7.7 6.7- 4.8- -1.0 6.4 2.7 0.0 105.9 109.2 125.4 0.1 4.6 2.5 1.4 1.5 2.1 5.8 5.6 0.4 28.4 28.1 32.7 4.8 2.3 Other
3.6 4.2 8.8 28.2 28.5 26.3 7.1 6.1 4.6 6.1 6.9 6.6 7.0 0.6 0.2 -98.6 -110.2 -126.5 0.0 2.7 1.1 110.2 107.0 101.3 5.7 8.9 0.0 97.4 95.3 100.2 4.7 5.4 5.9 0.0- 0.3- -1.0 4.4 8.2 9.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 9.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
5.7 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 6.6 5.07.7 8.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 9.8 -2.1 6.14.4 8.7 18.7 18.0 23.0 9.4 -0.3 8.88.2 8.3 10.7 9.4 8.1 8.9 3.1 3.60.8 6.9 -12.7 -1.0 -5.6 5.6 -1.0 4.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6.92 7 313.7 309.7 71 54
45 6.6 5.5 42 69-1 104.9 41.3 91 853 8.3 15.0 30 31
30 4.2 2.7 60 78-8 6.1 3.5 57 100
3.85 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.1 -1 72.8 54.0 75 92
Med -2.7 2 11.1 12.3 16 3140 25.2 25.3 25 460 -0.2 0.6 7 0
-32 -8.9 1.5 55 81.3 GDP by Sector %
7.69 -10 9.6 9.6 65 50 8.1 3.1 -3 31.0 35.8 56 23
Med 2.3 7 59.4 53.2 46 771.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
2.3 -30 -0.8 18.2 41 237 66.7 136.4 57 316 66.4 129.7 64 31-5 26.3 1.9 90 100
8.7 50
1.4 Openness (% GDP)1 32.7 65.8 46 31
Rank % 6 41.7 54.4 46 38∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 9 74.4 123.1 41 311.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
30 4.0 4.4 4.1 73 Exports (2016)13 5.6 6.0 6.3 41 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 22.5 0.0 6 34.0 35.0 37.0 43 #2 Partner United States 13.1 0.0 -9 5.4 4.9 5.8 25 #3 Partner Japan 11.8 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-8 4.3 4.2 5.7 17
1.3 Infrastructure4 3.2 3.3 4.0 24-4 9.1 8.7 6.9 91
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 8.7 8.9 8.3 58 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM17 6.5 39.7 44.4 40 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-4 0.3 0.3 0.8 32 0 104.9 120.8 1.5 16.0 89
1.5 Health -4 44.2 45.4 0.3 57.9 22-18 71.8 68.7 73.6 31 20 63.5 64.4 0.1 65.6 491 25.7 23.5 14.5 61 -1 7.6 9.7 2.8 9.6 36
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -8 15.1 21.4 4.1 23.0 29
-0.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 37
2017-27
27
2017
-1.0 4.8
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
4227
332718
7.939.70.7
19.0
35
26
20
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
96
60
22
67504036
60
4.56.0
33.0
58
5.75.6
3.96.8
42
28
36
1773
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
3.1
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
7888
External
101.3
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8.1
DomesticHigh Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
6.6Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.1
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.30.13.1
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
-0.3
6.6
REER101.3
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8.1
18677
22
53
10
Region
90
Real Rate
339149
63.7
-1.3
30.4
2937
89
Life expectancy (yrs) 49 2574.4
74
54
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
50
58.7
56.447.4
47Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
54
647186Remittances2
Imports G&S 5236.6
5.0
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum3.7
5.6
4.2
2018f5.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
81
Singapore
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.5 4.3 5.6 18.1 19.0 18.3 6.3 9.0 4.3 0.6 1.2- -1.0 9.4 5.0 7.5 27.9 27.9 25.3 6.5 1.0 2.8 15.6 16.6 17.0 0.1 5.0 3.1 -2.0 -2.0 -1.6 6.6 10.0 5.8 15.0 17.8 18.0 10.0 2.4 2.2 -4.4 -3.2 -1.8 1.0 8.1 4.4 -3.4 -3.7 -3.6 9.8
9.4 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.3 3.7 13.2 12.7 14.6 0.7 8.9 5.4 1.1- 13.8 15.0 5.2 7.6 5.2 -18.3 -7.0 -6.1 7.9 10.0 4.0 1.5 8.0 7.3 4.3 4.8 4.4 31.3 31.7 32.9 1.5 5.0 6.3 0.5- 0.5- 0.5 2.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 7.8 8.7 15.3- 6.9- 6.0 8.5 5.9 2.0 599.3 584.9 634.9 2.2 0.9 5.9 0.3 1.2 1.1 5.3 6.5 2.2 177.9 172.1 183.7 8.1 2.3 Other
2.0 5.0 5.7 1.9 2.0 3.1 3.5 6.2 1.9 -545.5 -528.4 -579.0 2.2 3.5 4.5 103.6 102.2 101.7 6.1 5.1 3.2 104.1 104.1 105.1 0.2 3.7 6.5 0.8 1.8 0.6 2.1 3.7 7.1 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
6.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.1 3.49.3 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.6 8.7 -1.0 9.68.9 4.3 68.2 73.9 73.1 9.3 18.3 7.73.8 4.5 6.6 6.8 6.9 0.9 0.5 3.48.4 0.1 -343.1 -369.0 -309.4 7.5 0.6 3.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1.53 3 305.6 309.7 74 46
23 3.1 5.5 16 151 5.6 41.3 23 82 92.1 15.0 97 100
55 2.4 2.7 5 330 2.2 3.5 4 18
2.31 1.2 GDP by Activity %-1 -7 35.2 54.0 8 0
Med -2.7 -11 11.5 12.3 30 38-14 23.4 25.3 72 2310 1.9 0.6 62 829 28.0 1.5 91 100
1.3 GDP by Sector %1.53 9.6 6.9 0.5 -4 26.3 35.8 33 8
Med 2.3 -3 73.7 53.2 97 921.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
3.07 -5 67.8 18.2 88 8516 150.7 136.4 79 69-1 142.5 129.7 96 62
1.98.7
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-1 183.7 65.8 100 92
Rank % -1 155.7 54.4 100 92∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -1 339.4 123.1 100 921.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
0 5.5 5.7 4.1 100 Exports (2016)0 9.0 8.5 6.3 100 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Hong Kong 16.8 0.0 0 87.0 84.0 37.0 100 #2 Partner China 12.3 0.0 0 8.9 8.4 5.8 100 #3 Partner United States 8.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts0 9.3 8.3 5.7 100
1.3 Infrastructure-1 6.6 6.4 4.0 98-2 9.2 9.1 6.9 96
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation14 9.1 10.1 8.3 80 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-3 77.2 82.0 44.4 93 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 123.2 127.2 0.8 99 0 5.6 6.2 0.8 16.0 26
1.5 Health 0 100.0 100.0 0.0 57.9 991 80.7 82.3 73.6 98 -23 72.1 66.1 -0.8 65.6 68-4 2.3 2.2 14.5 2 8 17.9 31.5 7.6 9.6 85
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 10 86.2 159.2 8.5 23.0 94
18.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 83
2017-27
99
2017
-0.1 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
100100
100100100
7.939.70.7
19.0
100
100
99
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
98
65
97
10092
10099
7
4.56.0
33.0
8
5.75.6
3.96.8
100
100
100
9282
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.5
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
7740
External
101.7
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
6.9
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.516.71.2
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
18.3
3.1
REER101.7
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 6.9
195773
100
28
83
Region
24
Real Rate
99624
63.7
-1.3
30.4
9177
26
Life expectancy (yrs) 97 9274.4
1
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
99
58.7
56.447.4
99Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
94
9695
Remittances2
Imports G&S 9936.6
6.1
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.6
6.7
7.0
2018f2.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
82
South Korea
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
4.1 6.6 7.0 7.7 7.0 6.1 2.0 2.9 5.6 0.0- 1.0 0.8 5.7 5.6 6.1 8.8 8.5 8.0 1.1 1.0 4.2 21.7 22.7 22.8 1.5 6.5 7.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.6 9.8 4.9 6.0 21.7 21.6 22.0 8.2 7.0 0.3 0.1 3.9 5.4 0.1- 0.2- -0.2 7.8 6.1 5.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 6.9 3.2 5.2 0.1- 0.8 0.7 4.7
5.7 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
2.7 8.5 -1.4 -1.2 -1.5 7.6 4.3 3.8 7.6 6.7 5.3 3.0 3.3 5.5 -3.6 -4.7 -4.4 0.9 2.9 1.5 8.2 7.1 5.1 1.4 5.9 7.6 6.2 5.8 4.6 2.3 5.8 8.6 0.7 1.0 2.3 4.9
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.8 8.6 4.0- 1.8- 3.4 7.1 6.9 1.9 673.3 636.2 705.5 2.6 5.3 5.0 2.4 1.7 1.6 7.2 7.4 3.5 45.3 42.2 44.1 8.2 2.3 Other
4.9 1.7 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1 5.1 5.3 2.8 2.8 3.0 4.1 6.3 2.0 -567.4 -537.5 -612.1 3.8 4.9 6.9 103.5 103.2 108.5 8.6 4.5 2.5 104.0 105.0 109.9 1.2 5.4 5.6 1.7 0.7 -0.7 7.3 3.2 6.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.6 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.0 2.96.0 6.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 8.5 0.8 8.55.0 7.2 28.4 28.3 32.6 2.1 6.1 2.53.6 6.8 8.3 8.9 8.1 1.6 2.3 2.97.3 5.6 -51.6 -71.9 -76.3 9.0 -0.7 7.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0.76 1 1533.0 309.7 95 92
8 3.0 5.5 27 8-1 51.0 41.3 80 540 37.7 15.0 90 77-5 1.8 2.7 55 115 3.7 3.5 14 64
0.77 1.2 GDP by Activity %0.8 -9 47.9 54.0 20 15
Med -2.7 -5 15.2 12.3 59 855 29.5 25.3 80 77
-17 0.3 0.6 49 4519 7.1 1.5 65 69
1.3 GDP by Sector %4.61 -3 2.2 9.6 13 17 8.1 2.3 16 38.7 35.8 67 85
Med 2.3 -21 59.1 53.2 73 691.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
7.69 -25 -0.4 18.2 37 31-1 183.3 136.4 99 85-1 145.0 129.7 97 690 0.0 1.9 0 0
8.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
-2 44.1 65.8 65 38Rank % -17 37.0 54.4 61 23
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -13 81.1 123.1 69 381.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4.1 Exports (2016)6.3 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 30.1 0.0 37.0 #2 Partner United States 13.2 0.0 5.8 #3 Partner Vietnam 6.1 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts5.7
1.3 Infrastructure4.06.9
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation8.3 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
44.4 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270.8 -2 51.0 52.9 0.3 16.0 77
1.5 Health -1 82.7 84.1 0.2 57.9 8473.6 -31 72.6 65.5 -1.0 65.6 6214.5 11 19.2 32.8 7.1 9.6 89
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 9 103.3 164.4 5.9 23.0 96
6.1
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 86
2017-27
85
2017
0.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
7.939.70.7
19.0
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
4.56.0
33.05.75.6
3.96.8
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.3
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
9635
External
108.5
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8.1
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
0.8
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.26.21.6
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
6.1
3
REER108.5
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8.1
54853284
84
11
Region
79
Real Rate
904919
63.7
-1.3
30.4
9478
79
Life expectancy (yrs) 74.4
10
10
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
55
58.7
56.447.4
63Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
51
98960Remittances2
Imports G&S 4436.6
2.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum3.8
7.6
4.8
2018f2.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
83
Taiwan
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
4.2 6.5 4.9 14.3 13.6 13.6 0.7 6.2 4.4 0.1 0.3- -0.1 1.4 6.3 3.8 13.9 13.3 13.8 0.4 6.1 4.3 15.9 15.7 15.8 6.6 6.0 5.9 -1.9 -2.1 -2.2 2.7 5.7 4.4 15.8 16.0 15.8 0.9 5.8 8.6 3.0 3.0 2.6 8.0 9.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 3.5 5.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 3.7 6.1 4.4 0.8 0.4 0.6 1.5
1.4 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
1.5 5.0 -2.3 -1.6 -1.6 4.1 5.2 5.0 3.4 3.5 3.5 4.7 1.2 9.6 -10.5 -14.5 -8.8 3.6 2.1 4.9 5.8 3.6 3.5 2.1 5.1 4.9 12.0 11.9 12.0 0.6 8.2 2.9 0.3- 1.4 0.4 2.3
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 7.9 6.9 8.9- 3.0- 0.9 5.9 7.2 1.3 413.5 387.9 440.1 1.7 5.6 7.3 1.9 1.8 1.4 8.7 6.1 2.3 64.3 62.8 66.7 6.4 2.3 Other
2.3 3.2 7.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 6.1 5.5 5.7 0.8 1.4 2.4 4.2 6.7 1.8 -338.4 -316.0 -361.8 2.9 9.4 7.9 98.0 103.0 105.4 10.0 4.7 6.4 105.3 105.7 103.7 2.8 8.1 3.8 2.2 0.4 1.0 4.6 4.6 6.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
10.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.4 3.65.2 7.3 2.9 2.9 3.0 9.3 -0.1 3.37.2 8.7 33.6 36.5 41.9 9.7 13.6 1.83.1 6.7 16.4 18.0 16.6 2.7 0.4 5.58.6 6.2 -35.8 -68.5 -77.6 9.4 1.0 7.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 0 578.0 309.7 90 77
18 2.4 5.5 8 0-4 23.5 41.3 63 381 50.0 15.0 92 85
14 1.6 2.7 27 0-4 3.8 3.5 24 73
1.54 1.2 GDP by Activity %-0.1 -3 52.5 54.0 26 46
Med -2.7 -13 14.1 12.3 60 69-9 20.5 25.3 44 0
0.6 40
16 12.9 1.5 78 921.3 GDP by Sector %
0.76 2 1.8 9.6 5 8 16.6 0.4 26 36.5 35.8 51 62
Med 2.3 -21 61.7 53.2 86 851.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
5.38 -2 -44.9 18.2 4 0-3 147.6 136.4 98 620 242.7 129.7 99 920 0.1 1.9 4 8
10 3.2 8.7 8 331.4 Openness (% GDP)
-2 66.7 65.8 86 54Rank % -5 53.8 54.4 77 46
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -6 120.5 123.1 86 461.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-1 5.2 5.3 4.1 97 Exports (2016)3 7.9 8.1 6.3 99 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner-1 61.0 61.0 37.0 87 #2 Partner44 5.8 7.3 5.8 92 #3 Partner 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts10 6.3 7.0 5.7 86
1.3 Infrastructure-1 5.9 5.5 4.0 931 9.3 9.9 6.9 100
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation8.3 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
2 69.8 84.0 44.4 94 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270.0 0.8 23.5 16.0
1.5 Health 57.91 78.6 80.0 73.6 94 65.6-4 4.5 3.6 14.5 8 9.6
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 23.0
13.6
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4
2017-27 2017
0.2 5.1
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
8391
838282
7.939.70.7
19.0
47
75
94
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
99
92 1000
12
4.56.0
33.0
17
5.75.6
3.96.8
98
96
88
75100
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.4
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
9027
External
105.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
16.6
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.4Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.1
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.913.01.2
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
13.6
2.4
REER105.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 16.6
4734
95
78
2
Region
58
Real Rate
934221
63.7
-1.3
30.4
Life expectancy (yrs) 93 8374.4
23
7
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
80
58.7
56.447.4
84Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
64
95994
19Remittances2
Imports G&S 7236.6
6.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.3
7.2
6.3
2018f1.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
84
Thailand
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.5 2.0 5.5 8.0 11.8 11.3 0.4 8.5 4.7 0.4- 2.7- -2.5 6.6 2.7 5.6 6.7 9.0 8.4 2.4 7.1 3.6 18.4 18.1 18.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 4.8 5.9 7.0 0.2 8.4 5.1 18.8 20.8 20.8 8.4 3.6 7.9 -5.2 -4.8 -5.7 9.0 0.3 5.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.1 5.0 5.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 8.9 8.6 4.6 0.4 2.1- -1.9 7.6
6.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.9 1.9 1.0 -2.5 -0.9 8.1 3.7 5.4 4.9 3.6 4.0 1.8 9.4 6.7 -3.6 -0.7 -0.1 8.1 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.0 1.2 4.7 3.9 9.0 9.3 10.4 0.6 6.4 6.1 0.9- 0.2 1.0 3.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.4 6.0 4.1- 1.2- 0.9 3.9 3.7 0.8 291.2 299.0 331.4 0.6 3.9 9.0 2.6 3.4 0.0 9.3 5.2 2.8 69.1 68.9 70.7 1.6 2.3 Other
3.0 5.4 6.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 4.0 5.3 5.2 3.0 3.3 3.5 5.5 5.9 1.9 -259.1 -250.7 -281.9 2.3 6.0 6.8 99.3 101.5 104.8 8.5 7.2 2.3 91.8 89.7 91.6 9.5 5.4 9.3 3.5 3.2 -1.0 8.4 3.1 5.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.5 5.22.0 2.2 3.3 3.0 2.8 4.9 -2.5 6.43.2 3.2 32.7 30.7 28.9 5.1 11.3 1.02.3 3.8 8.2 9.3 9.8 1.2 1.0 4.21.2 6.3 -34.7 -21.6 -25.6 8.1 -1.0 8.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth2.3 3 438.2 309.7 83 69
28 3.5 5.5 15 23-1 69.0 41.3 84 694 17.8 15.0 58 62
34 2.5 2.7 29 44-1 1.0 3.5 3 0
4.62 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.5 -7 50.1 54.0 23 23
Med -2.7 7 17.0 12.3 58 100-4 24.1 25.3 65 31
-39 0.1 0.6 55 913 8.7 1.5 76 85
1.3 GDP by Sector %2.3 -6 8.2 9.6 55 25
9.8 1 -4 36.2 35.8 81 54Med 2.3 1 55.6 53.2 37 62
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)4.61 -2 -16.1 18.2 9 8
-1 126.8 136.4 92 46-1 127.6 129.7 94 469 1.9 1.9 27 50
19 17.2 8.7 58 1001.4 Openness (% GDP)
-2 70.7 65.8 89 62Rank % -10 54.9 54.4 83 54
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -7 125.6 123.1 90 541.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
5 4.5 4.6 4.1 86 Exports (2016)-15 7.5 7.3 6.3 76 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 16.5 0.0 -8 37.0 35.0 37.0 43 #2 Partner United States 12.6 0.0
-15 7.0 6.5 5.8 73 #3 Partner Japan 8.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-13 7.7 6.7 5.7 80
1.3 Infrastructure-23 4.9 4.0 4.0 52-4 8.6 8.3 6.9 85
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation0 6.2 6.6 8.3 33 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-9 25.8 34.9 44.4 36 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20279 0.6 1.3 0.8 60 -1 69.0 69.7 0.1 16.0 82
1.5 Health 14 52.7 61.9 1.7 57.9 5122 68.9 74.4 73.6 60 -5 71.3 68.1 -0.4 65.6 83-3 12.5 11.3 14.5 33 4 15.9 25.4 5.9 9.6 77
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 7 65.7 119.0 8.1 23.0 83
11.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 76
2017-27
36
2017
-1.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
5873
336464
7.939.70.7
19.0
88
93
76
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
89
33
46
33427051
36
4.56.0
33.0
42
5.75.6
3.96.8
81
91
51
5864
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
8644
External
104.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
9.8
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.5
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.510.71.5
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
11.3
3.5
REER104.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 9.8
66601590
77
7
Region
83
Real Rate
63641
63.7
-1.3
30.4
8872
83
Life expectancy (yrs) 38 5074.4
16
49
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
82
58.7
56.447.4
86Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
38
91933678
Remittances2
Imports G&S 7336.6
5.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.6
5.0
5.6
2018f3.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
85
Vietnam
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
7.9 2.1 9.4 0.5 4.1 -1.2 5.1 2.9 4.5 6.3- 5.6- -5.5 5.0 2.5 9.6 3.9 7.0 1.9 3.5 10.0 7.5 30.8 24.6 23.0 10.0 7.7 5.9 -2.2 -2.7 -2.8 9.5 0.0 2.6 37.1 30.2 28.5 0.0 1.1 4.8 -5.2 -4.2 -4.1 5.3 4.2 7.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 9.6 5.3 6.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 9.5 2.9 4.2 4.3- 3.7- -3.5 1.9
5.0 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.7 5.8 5.6 5.8 5.5 6.1 4.2 6.0 20.1 17.2 20.1 3.6 6.9 5.3 0.0 0.3 0.3 3.3 5.9 5.3 14.9 17.9 18.8 3.1 1.0 9.8 6.1 9.8 4.3 5.6 5.9 5.0 0.6 2.7 2.6 1.7
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 5.0 5.7 0.6- 0.6- 1.0 1.7 0.4 0.1 182.3 198.6 219.9 0.2 5.0 5.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 3.3 1.9 1.0 89.8 93.6 99.3 0.1 2.3 Other
1.7 6.4 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.3 9.5 2.7 6.5 6.7 6.2 6.5 7.9 1.9 0.0 -181.4 -190.3 -222.5 0.1 9.5 0.0 110.9 116.4 106.4 7.5 0.3 10.0 104.4 108.3 101.9 3.4 6.0 5.0 8.4 6.3 6.4 1.5 6.2 9.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 10.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
7.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 6.5 8.53.1 6.1 9.2 8.2 8.8 7.8 -5.5 3.24.0 6.1 41.9 38.0 42.4 5.4 -1.2 6.22.8 5.9 2.0 2.5 2.3 6.5 2.6 2.82.9 0.6 -24.0 -21.0 -13.2 5.1 6.4 3.2
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6.15 9 215.3 309.7 60 31
31 6.5 5.5 54 62-1 95.5 41.3 90 773 6.8 15.0 26 23
33 5.6 2.7 64 89-13 3.3 3.5 29 36
8.47 1.2 GDP by Activity %-5.5 -5 68.7 54.0 68 77
Med -2.7 2 6.6 12.3 1 8-17 24.7 25.3 82 380 2.9 0.6 88 100
17 -2.9 1.5 26 311.3 GDP by Sector %
6.15 -1 15.8 9.6 74 75 2.3 2.6 -6 33.0 35.8 68 38
Med 2.3 -13 41.1 53.2 18 151.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
6.15 24 25.0 18.2 25 699 155.0 136.4 87 776 165.3 129.7 91 77-6 6.3 1.9 68 92
8.71.4 Openness (% GDP)
9 99.3 65.8 88 85Rank % 4 102.2 54.4 94 85
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 4 201.5 123.1 94 851.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-2 4.3 4.3 4.1 65 Exports (2016)15 5.9 6.4 6.3 52 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 20.3 0.0 8 31.0 33.0 37.0 35 #2 Partner China 18.0 0.0
-15 6.6 6.0 5.8 59 #3 Partner Japan 7.9 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts25 3.3 5.3 5.7 37
1.3 Infrastructure16 3.0 3.5 4.0 3017 6.1 6.9 6.9 48
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation8.3 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
7 27.3 48.3 44.4 56 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-41 1.0 0.2 0.8 19 -1 95.5 101.6 0.8 16.0 86
1.5 Health 4 34.9 41.2 1.8 57.9 182 74.4 75.8 73.6 76 -8 69.8 67.4 -0.3 65.6 76
24 11.8 19.0 14.5 58 9 10.2 16.3 5.9 9.6 62Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 1 31.0 50.8 6.4 23.0 63
-1.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 62
2017-27
14
2017
4.8 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
3345
255545
7.939.70.7
19.0
74
11
13
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
30
49 583061
33
4.56.0
33.0
50
5.75.6
3.96.8
67
37
27
3345
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.6
Med 5.5
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
7086
External
106.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
2.3
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
6.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-5.5
High
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.1-1.94.2
Tourism2
Med 105.1
Med 0.3
Med 8.1
M2 Stock
-1.2
6.5
REER106.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 2.3
3658844
62
49
Region
89
Real Rate
299815
63.7
-1.3
30.4
8452
87
Life expectancy (yrs) 74 7574.4
63
73
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
98
58.7
56.447.4
97Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
4
979761Remittances2
Imports G&S 9836.6
5.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.0
3.6
5.7
2018f6.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
86
Gulf
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1
2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum12015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)2.0 4.7 3.7 2.3 -3.6 3.3 7.9 7.2 2.8 6.4- 9.0- -6.5 8.6
7.2 2.8 6.8 8.6 15.7 7.1 8.5 2.4 25.1 22.5 24.3 9.6 5.9 4.0 -6.0 -5.6 -5.2 5.1 4.7 4.1 32.1 31.8 30.8 4.0 8.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.8 8.9 3.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 9.4 4.3 7.0 -7.6 -7.4 -7.1 8.5 8.9 3.6 0.9 3.3- -2.0 9.4
8.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.1 Price Indicators (%)
1.8 4.9 -1.8 -0.2 -0.1 7.2 2.8 4.7 11.2 5.3 4.6 2.3 7.2 6.9 -5.8 -2.6 0.0 9.9 5.1 4.4 3.1 3.3 2.3 1.5
7.8 1.2 0.6 -4.3 2.8 8.4 5.9 4.0 2.2 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 5.3 9.0 2.2- 1.8- 4.3 6.1
4.3 3.4 81.9 86.4 97.1 6.5 3.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.7 4.0
7.9 5.5 53.8 47.5 46.4 9.7 3. Other
1.8 CPI 5.2 5.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 1.5 4.7 3.7 3.6 3.2 2.0 2.0 3.0 1.2 -73.4 -81.2 -96.9 0.1 8.4 0.6 109.3 112.5 107.3 9.0 8.6 1.3 73.6 58.5 74.4 9.1 5.1 3.0 1.7- 1.9- -0.2 1.8
5.8 6.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 9.8 3. Forecasts 2017e Score9.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.0 3.0
6.2 4.1 3.4 3.8 3.6 6.1 -6.5 6.85.0 5.2 32.1 32.2 32.9 2.9 3.3 7.4
4.3 7.0 6.3 6.5 5.8 9.3 2.1 4.74.5 8.4 -4.8 -2.8 -18.6 2.4 -0.2 7.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank # of 8Gulf EM* Africa CIS E Asia LatAm 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1 211.4 66.3 32.3 41.1 309.7 75.2 34 2.0 3.7 3.8 2.8 5.5 2.6 40 9.4 16.9 24.3 9.1 41.3 13.9 60 54.3 12.9 3.9 9.8 15.0 13.7 10 -0.3 1.9 0.9 2.0 2.7 1.1 83 4.9 6.1 11.1 5.6 3.5 7.6 3
1.2 GDP by Activity %0 44.1 63.7 72.0 61.1 54.0 67.3 8-2 16.2 14.6 14.9 17.1 12.3 13.6 61 23.8 22.2 21.0 24.0 25.3 20.7 3-1 2.9 0.7 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.5 30 7.5 -1.3 -8.5 0.1 1.5 -4.1 1
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 0.9 8.3 18.0 11.4 9.6 7.1 80 45.1 30.4 26.2 32.3 35.8 28.1 10 52.3 58.7 54.3 54.4 53.2 62.2 8
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)0 27.7 25.3 24.9 66.2 18.2 24.5 4-1 85.6 56.4 28.0 35.5 136.4 50.0 40 84.1 47.4 40.4 28.8 129.7 41.8 3-1 2.6 3.9 4.0 6.5 1.9 7.4 6
0 3.0 7.1 7.7 22.3 8.7 6.8 61.4 Openness (% GDP)
2 Exports G&S 46.4 36.6 29.5 38.3 65.8 24.5 1Rank # of 8 -4 Imports G&S 43.5 39.9 35.1 48.3 54.4 29.2 8
∆Rank EM 0 85.9 74.4 63.8 85.2 123.1 56.1 31.1 Aggregate
01
1.2 Institutions000
1.3 Infrastructure01
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation Ave % Growth EM* Median Rank # of 80 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 0 4.6 5.7 2.3 16.0 1.6 8-1 0 86.1 88.1 0.2 57.9 0.7 1
1.5 Health 0 76.6 76.1 -0.1 65.6 -0.1 10 -1 3.1 6.1 9.8 9.6 3.4 70 0 11.1 25.4 12.9 23.0 5.4 7
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank *EM median is the median of all EM countries and not the median of all regional medians2% C/A Receipts
3.3
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
CPI5
Demographic Forecasts
Population (mm)
Dependancy Ratio (retired)Retired/Child Ratio
18.52027
12.935.4
2017-27 2017
1
7
8
8
61.8 1
21.1 58.1 32.9
Urban Pop. (% total)
2011
4.65.4
50.54.96.3
5.55.4
7.3174.4
1.3
Total Trade
271
27
271
REER Imp. Cover (mths)Med 5.8 / Score 9.3
CA (% GDP)Med 3.3 / Score 7.9
EM*
4.16.3
2011
27
Med 107.3 / Score 9
Global Comp. Index (1-7) 4.6 2
2016 2016
8Ease of Business Index (1-10) 5.2
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Macro Risk scoresMacro Road Sign: Risk Time series
Growth
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real GDP (%) Current Acc. Fiscal Bal.2 Level Trade Bal. Budget Rev.
-6.5 Net FDI Dom. Cred GrowthNet Port. Flows M2 Growth
Level Exports G&S
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP) Low
Low Services Bal. Budget exp.Income Bal. Debt Interest
Qaility Transfers Bal. Primary bal.
Imp. Cover (mths) Overvalued Remittances3
Net Ext. Flow2 CPI5
Currency PPICA Credits MM Rate
Real GDP (%)
Moderate Imports G&SREER 107.3 Broad Money
5.8 2.1 CA DebitsVulnerability Terms of Trade4
REER4
Real Rate
2018f momentumReal GDP (%) 2.3 5.3
-4.6Short term debt
Imp Cover (mths)External High Domestic Moderate Capital Flight Real Rate6 -2.0 3.6
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
Real GDP (%)
Med 2 / Score 2
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Med -6.5 / Score 8.6
CPI
Med 2.09 / Score 1.8
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high pressure). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Nominal GDP $Real GDP (%) 4.1
CEMEA
7.1
Economic Structure
Median
3.1 0.1
67.9 54.911.7 19.2
5.3 4.3
2
7.2
0.3
62.2 160.6
-6.5 2.4
16.7 1.1
1
818
43
26.0
2.7
Competitiveness
55.8 96.94.1
35
65.1
15.5 58.7 33.7 3
M2 StockRemittances2
Tourism2
Corruption Perc. Index (1-100) 49.0 37.05.85.7
4.9 2Getting Electricity (1-10) 4.5 8
4.06.9
Infrastructure Index (1-7)
Contract Enforcement (1-10) 4.9Protecting minority investors 6.0
Patents (applications/mm pop) 1.9 3Internet users (% Pop) 173.3 1Education (ave yrs for pop>25) 7.6 68.3
113.80.8
14
6
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000) 8.1 6Life expectancy (yrs) 76.7 2
14.575.99.6
73.6 26
66.6
6
48
186
844
43
76.7
2.317.2
1031.1
6.6
Working Age Pop. (% total) 64.6
56.3 66.2 71.5
GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
58.318.720.6
5.5 29.1 51.24.2 2.3 0.8
27.5 23.2
39.4 115.0
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
39.569.259.41.5
3.428.7 30.3
12.9
AgricultureIndustryServices
Net DebtDom Credit Stock
3.4
3.4 4.9
3.7 7.7
Private Con.
6.7164.7Population
∆Rank1 S Asia G10 2017
246.6 77.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Region Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
- 5.0 10.0
GulfAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
G10EM
- 5.0 10.0
GulfAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
G10EM
- 5.0 10.0
GulfAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
G10EM
0.0 5.0 10.0
GulfAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
G10EM
- 5.0 10.0
GulfAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
G10EM
- 5.0 10.0
GulfAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
LatAmCEMEA
G10EM
87
Bahrain
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.9 6.9 4.2 -2.4 -4.6 -3.8 9.5 5.5 2.8 13.0- 13.5- -10.7 8.9 7.3 3.0 2.7 -2.5 1.9 9.1 6.7 3.5 17.5 15.7 17.2 9.3 0.5 5.6 8.1 10.9 10.6 0.3 1.9 1.9 30.4 29.2 27.9 6.8 5.0 7.7 -5.6 -5.6 -9.2 5.0 4.0 2.4 -7.6 -7.4 -7.1 6.9
8.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
2.6 4.5 -4.2 0.3 1.2 5.8 3.1 4.8 11.2 2.8 2.2 1.7 5.9 4.5 -0.3 5.7 2.7 3.7 4.4 5.0 3.1 1.3 1.3 2.1 3.9 4.2 -6.6 -4.3 -2.6 9.1 7.4 3.9 1.8 2.8 2.4 4.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
6.3 3.4 27.9 26.1 28.3 2.4 3.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 2.1 2.8 7.5 3.7 82.4 73.9 78.1 7.3 2.3 Other
4.8 5.7 3.9 2.9 3.2 2.7 1.9 5.9 3.2 -28.7 -27.7 -29.8 0.6 6.9 4.6 109.3 112.3 111.7 9.7
6.8 1.1 1.4- 2.2- -0.3 2.6 2.8 5.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 4.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.7 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.7 1.47.6 10.0 8.0 8.8 13.8 10.0 -10.7 6.35.6 10.0 261.7 275.0 502.0 8.3 -3.8 8.65.2 7.1 1.8 1.8 1.1 9.9 2.4 3.36.7 0.8 1.1 -2.8 7.6 0.8 -0.3 1.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6.66 -4 33.2 211.4 35 0
-32 2.7 2.0 64 672 1.5 9.4 2 0-1 48.7 54.3 93 3342 1.7 -0.3 0 60
4.910 1.2 GDP by Activity %
-10.7 0 44.1 44.1 6 50Med -6.5 24 16.2 16.2 36 50
-23 25.4 23.8 94 6767 3.6 2.9 24 605 10.7 7.5 89 83
1.3 GDP by Sector %6.66 -1 0.3 0.9 3 17 1.1 2.4 -6 38.9 45.1 92 33
Med 2.1 19 60.9 52.3 39 831.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
8.33 -1 125.9 27.7 99 10017 89.4 85.6 63 67-4 83.4 84.1 85 33
2.63.0
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-7 78.1 46.4 97 83
Rank % 8 67.4 43.5 75 83∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -2 145.5 85.9 91 831.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-2 4.5 4.5 4.1 81 Exports (2016)-3 6.7 6.8 6.3 66 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Saudi Arabia 18.4 0.0 -12 51.0 43.0 37.0 67 #2 Partner United Arab Emirates 10.2 0.0 8 5.2 5.5 5.8 38 #3 Partner United States 8.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-2 5.0 5.0 5.7 34
1.3 Infrastructure2 5.6 5.3 4.0 92-8 7.9 7.5 6.9 64
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 9.2 9.4 8.3 66 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM0 82.0 91.0 44.4 98 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-4 2.7 1.9 0.8 71 1 1.5 1.9 2.9 16.0 5
1.5 Health 0 88.9 89.7 0.1 57.9 90-1 75.9 76.7 73.6 82 0 77.9 78.0 0.0 65.6 98
-15 9.6 5.2 14.5 13 14 3.0 6.1 9.9 9.6 17Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 16 12.0 27.5 12.8 23.0 41
-3.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 24
2017-27
90
2017
0.2 4.9
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
3383
331750
7.678.71.9
8.1
29
36
90
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
73
67
98
100835074
28
4.65.2
49.0
0
4.96.0
4.94.5
82
70
80
6733
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.4
Med 2
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
3130
External
111.7
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
1.1
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityHigh
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-10.7
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-7.1-2.71.9
Tourism2
Med 107.3
Med 3.3
Med 5.8
M2 Stock
-3.8
2.7
REER111.7
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 1.1
61709394
85
98
Region
4
Real Rate
9244
63.7
-1.3
30.4
982
4
Life expectancy (yrs) 83 5076.7
6
2
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
89
58.7
56.447.4
90Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
59
8181
Remittances2
Imports G&S 8336.6
3.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.1
2.3
4.0
2018f2.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
88
Kuwait
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
2.3 7.2 1.8 3.3 -3.6 7.2 9.2 5.0 3.8 13.5- 13.5- -9.7 9.3 7.2 2.2 20.2 13.9 22.3 9.1 5.9 3.6 39.8 38.3 40.7 9.5 9.8 1.4 -15.5 -18.8 -16.9 9.5 4.4 4.4 53.3 51.7 50.4 8.3 0.5 6.8 13.0 16.4 15.3 0.3 6.0 2.2 -14.4 -15.1 -13.5 8.4
9.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.6 4.6 -4.4 -3.7 -3.0 3.8 2.7 5.9 6.1 0.9 2.9 3.8 8.3 7.5 -28.9 -17.0 -8.5 8.5 6.3 4.0 1.7 3.6 2.1 1.4 6.5 2.4 -1.1 -7.3 4.2 9.0 4.8 3.6 3.3 2.9 1.0 2.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
5.9 3.4 77.2 71.0 82.1 8.0 5.4 3.4 1.3 1.3 1.6 5.3 8.0 2.7 53.8 48.2 52.4 9.3 2.3 Other
2.6 6.9 2.1 0.6 3.5 -1.2 2.3 3.9 6.5 -73.4 -74.9 -73.4 1.1 8.9 0.5 108.9 113.4 107.3 8.6 6.5 2.8 64.8 55.2 68.8 8.9 4.8 3.5 2.0- 1.7- 0.6 2.4 6.2 5.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 9.8 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.6 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) -1.2 4.92.6 2.7 4.0 3.8 3.6 0.7 -9.7 7.92.3 3.7 81.8 73.0 69.0 1.1 7.2 8.43.6 2.3 6.2 6.5 7.2 3.6 1.0 5.03.4 7.8 -6.8 4.4 -16.1 1.5 0.6 5.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 -5 119.9 211.4 66 17
-20 -1.2 2.0 22 04 4.5 9.4 18 33-2 67.3 54.3 99 67
-60 -4.1 -0.3 64 04 3.1 4.9 7 25
8.34 1.2 GDP by Activity %-9.7 2 43.3 44.1 3 33
Med -6.5 44 24.6 16.2 53 10061 26.7 23.8 15 83
2.9-21 5.4 7.5 100 33
1.3 GDP by Sector %1.66 1 0.4 0.9 2 33 7.2 1 6 58.8 45.1 94 100
Med 2.1 -11 40.8 52.3 15 01.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
3.33 -33 12.3 27.7 55 337 85.6 85.6 72 50
13 100.4 84.1 75 1002.63.0
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-6 52.4 46.4 84 67
Rank % 51 47.0 43.5 11 67∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 6 99.4 85.9 64 671.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
1 4.6 4.6 4.1 85 Exports (2016)-7 6.1 6.0 6.3 40 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner South Korea 16.7 0.0 -5 44.0 41.0 37.0 62 #2 Partner China 14.3 0.0 32 5.2 6.1 5.8 61 #3 Partner Japan 9.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts8 5.0 5.5 5.7 45
1.3 Infrastructure-19 4.9 4.1 4.0 57-10 6.5 6.1 6.9 35
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 6.0 6.1 8.3 26 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM21 36.9 78.7 44.4 90 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-9 0.4 0.3 0.8 28 0 4.5 4.7 1.4 16.0 21
1.5 Health 0 98.4 98.5 0.0 57.9 97-29 78.0 74.5 73.6 63 -1 76.6 74.7 -0.2 65.6 96-4 9.4 8.1 14.5 23 20 3.1 7.3 13.7 9.6 23
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 14 11.1 27.3 14.5 23.0 38
7.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 23
2017-27
97
2017
-1.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
5017
176767
7.678.71.9
8.1
28
36
77
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
45
28
68
2050038
27
4.65.2
49.0
50
4.96.0
4.94.5
84
48
67
170
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1
Med 2
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
601
External
107.3
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
7.2
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
-1.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-9.7
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.98.93.1
Tourism2
Med 107.3
Med 3.3
Med 5.8
M2 Stock
7.2
-1.2
REER107.3
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 7.2
9977
78
100
21
Region
22
Real Rate
972
12
63.7
-1.3
30.4
973
21
Life expectancy (yrs) 92 1776.7
5
3
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
70
58.7
56.447.4
78Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
3
7988
Remittances2
Imports G&S 6436.6
6.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.6
3.1
4.5
2018f1.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
89
Oman
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
8.7 6.5 5.9 -1.2 -2.3 -2.9 3.0 7.3 6.5 1.5- 2.4- -3.0 3.9 5.9 5.8 -4.9 -5.5 -6.0 3.2 10.0 3.8 32.8 29.4 29.8 9.5 3.9 7.3 4.2 4.5 4.1 1.1 0.5 7.2 34.3 31.8 32.8 1.3 7.8 2.1 -2.4 -2.9 -2.3 6.7 4.3 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.1 7.2 5.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 8.6 7.3 6.9 0.1- 1.1- -1.9 4.7
3.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.8 4.8 1.9 2.3 2.4 5.9 3.3 7.1 5.6 3.0- 4.6 3.4 4.9 6.8 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 5.6 5.2 8.1 9.4 9.8 15.0 6.7 5.9 6.1 0.6 0.0 -0.5 2.7 3.0 9.4 0.6- 1.6- 1.3 2.1
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 5.4 8.9 2.2- 1.8- 3.6 5.0 3.5 1.6 81.9 86.4 97.1 0.3 8.8 3.1 2.5 0.3 1.2 9.4 4.6 3.2 41.1 41.4 42.4 1.0 2.3 Other
2.1 4.1 5.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 1.4 5.6 6.6 3.9 4.8 7.2 8.7 3.4 1.9 -84.0 -90.7 -103.2 0.2 3.8 3.4 96.1 94.4 92.6 0.5 4.1 1.9 101.3 101.5 102.2 0.1 7.2 8.3 3.1 1.9 0.0 9.8 5.7 6.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 8.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 7.2 7.86.8 6.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 9.7 -3.0 5.05.0 5.3 32.1 32.2 32.9 2.9 -2.9 4.25.6 5.6 6.3 6.0 5.8 8.9 1.3 5.51.7 8.5 0.3 3.1 0.0 6.0 0.0 9.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth10 -7 211.4 211.4 75 50
10 7.2 2.0 83 100-3 19.7 9.4 58 675 25.8 54.3 73 17-5 4.1 -0.3 93 100-9 4.9 4.9 44 50
1.67 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3 -5 69.0 44.1 69 100
Med -6.5 0 7.5 16.2 5 0-43 22.5 23.8 96 3374 2.1 2.9 0 4027 -1.1 7.5 23 0
1.3 GDP by Sector %3.33 -7 4.9 0.9 38 83 5.8 1.3 -10 33.5 45.1 76 0
Med 2.1 16 63.4 52.3 53 1001.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
0 -16 27.7 27.7 70 50-28 31.7 85.6 52 17-5 42.2 84.1 43 176 3.9 2.6 43 100
-10 3.0 3.0 19 1001.4 Openness (% GDP)
29 42.4 46.4 27 33Rank % 7 43.5 43.5 49 50
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 26 85.9 85.9 31 501.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-26 4.6 4.2 4.1 59 Exports (2016)-11 6.8 6.8 6.3 63 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 43.0 0.0 -4 47.0 45.0 37.0 69 #2 Partner United Arab Emirates 8.8 0.0 41 5.1 6.2 5.8 66 #3 Partner South Korea 8.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-7 5.0 4.7 5.7 28
1.3 Infrastructure-8 5.8 4.9 4.0 85-4 7.7 7.6 6.9 66
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation21 0.0 5.5 8.3 22 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM4 43.5 70.2 44.4 80 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20276 0.4 0.6 0.8 47 1 19.7 5.7 2.3 16.0 24
1.5 Health 1 78.5 82.0 0.4 57.9 82-1 75.9 76.9 73.6 84 1 75.8 76.1 0.0 65.6 97-2 10.3 9.8 14.5 28 1 3.1 4.9 5.7 9.6 5
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 1 10.8 18.4 7.0 23.0 23
-2.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 22
2017-27
81
2017
-2.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
1767
508333
7.678.71.9
8.1
24
36
93
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
71
0
76
0333341
30
4.65.2
49.0
67
4.96.0
4.94.5
86
74
73
3350
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.3
Med 2
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
6894
External
92.6
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.8
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
7.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3
High
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.6-3.33.7
Tourism2
Med 107.3
Med 3.3
Med 5.8
M2 Stock
-2.9
7.2
REER92.6
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.8
5517751
65
53
Region
55
Real Rate
788735
63.7
-1.3
30.4
964
23
Life expectancy (yrs) 86 6776.7
64
31
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
58
58.7
56.447.4
57Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
69
2338499
Remittances2
Imports G&S 5636.6
9.2
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.1
6.8
5.6
2018f5.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
90
Qatar
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.8 9.1 2.4 8.4 -5.5 2.4 9.1 8.9 3.1 1.0- 9.0- -5.6 9.6 9.1 3.1 29.6 16.6 21.9 9.2 6.1 5.3 31.2 29.0 28.4 9.4 9.0 0.2 -9.6 -10.7 -8.9 8.0 9.6 1.4 32.1 38.0 34.0 8.2 2.2 5.4 -2.2 -0.7 -0.9 0.4 9.0 6.5 2.9 3.3 3.4 9.8 7.7 2.7 -9.5 -10.6 -9.8 8.8 8.7 3.1 1.9 5.5- -2.1 9.5
9.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
7.4 2.6 -1.8 -4.7 -2.0 5.5 3.3 1.5 18.8 11.7 -2.0 0.5 0.2 5.5 -4.0 -17.2 -16.3 1.7 3.8 6.4 2.7 3.9- 2.2 1.8 9.8 1.3 6.6 -10.1 0.4 9.2 5.5 3.6 1.9 2.7 0.2 2.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 8.7 37.9- 22.5-
7.8 4.3 100.1 79.5 84.5 6.7 3.7 2.4 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.5 8.7 5.5 56.1 47.5 46.4 9.7 2.3 Other
2.8 3.9 3.8 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.8 4.4 8.4 -70.6 -71.7 -64.3 3.9 5.3 4.5 112.1 112.5 111.8 9.4 8.2 2.6 85.2 61.8 78.7 7.8 5.3 3.2 1.5- 2.0- 1.3 2.3 9.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 6.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 0.8 1.56.4 9.8 3.8 4.3 7.0 10.0 -5.6 8.85.6 6.4 17.4 20.9 28.4 3.9 2.4 8.37.2 7.1 10.1 7.9 5.8 8.2 0.2 6.03.0 7.0 -21.1 -6.5 -21.5 2.4 1.3 7.2
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth3.33 3 166.1 211.4 63 33
-91 0.8 2.0 100 336 2.6 9.4 5 170 127.5 54.3 100 100
-25 -2.2 -0.3 33 400 0.6 4.9 0 0
3.34 1.2 GDP by Activity %-5.6 0 24.1 44.1 0 0
Med -6.5 81 22.2 16.2 11 67-4 39.1 23.8 100 10062 1.5 2.9 5 200 13.1 7.5 97 100
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 0 0.2 0.9 1 0
5.8 0.2 -1 51.7 45.1 100 83Med 2.1 14 48.1 52.3 2 17
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)10 11 88.7 27.7 82 83
31 132.3 85.6 61 10021 84.1 84.1 60 50
2.63.0
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-9 46.4 46.4 77 50
Rank % 20 33.4 43.5 19 33∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -6 79.8 85.9 60 331.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
1 5.1 5.3 4.1 98 Exports (2016)-19 6.8 6.4 6.3 51 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Japan 19.6 0.0 -5 68.0 61.0 37.0 87 #2 Partner South Korea 18.1 0.0
-13 5.7 5.3 5.8 30 #3 Partner India 13.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-25 4.3 2.7 5.7 0
1.3 Infrastructure12 5.1 5.6 4.0 94-4 8.4 8.2 6.9 78
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-4 7.1 7.3 8.3 41 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM45 28.3 91.5 44.4 99 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202727 1.3 17.7 0.8 93 3 2.6 3.1 1.8 16.0 15
1.5 Health 0 99.4 99.7 0.0 57.9 985 75.9 78.6 73.6 92 0 84.8 83.0 -0.2 65.6 99-8 9.2 7.0 14.5 17 1 1.5 4.2 16.9 9.6 2
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 18 9.4 25.4 17.0 23.0 37
2.4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 19
2017-27
98
2017
-2.2 4.9
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
10050
8300
7.678.71.9
8.1
43
26
82
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
83
45
52
4010010066
26
4.65.2
49.0
17
4.96.0
4.94.5
97
71
93
8367
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.2
Med 2
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
666
External
111.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.8
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
0.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-5.6
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.54.63.6
Tourism2
Med 107.3
Med 3.3
Med 5.8
M2 Stock
2.4
0.8
REER111.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.8
95966897
99
93
Region
11
Real Rate
10070
63.7
-1.3
30.4
991
12
Life expectancy (yrs) 87 10076.7
0
1
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
54
58.7
56.447.4
68Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
17
9382
Remittances2
Imports G&S 4036.6
6.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.3
4.4
4.2
2018f1.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
91
Saudi Arabia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.7 3.3 2.3 -8.7 -4.3 3.3 7.9 4.5 3.4 14.8- 12.8- -6.6 8.0 4.1 2.0 6.8 8.6 15.7 8.5 6.3 4.0 25.1 21.4 24.3 9.2 1.0 5.0 -11.2 -8.6 -8.6 1.2 0.9 2.3 39.9 34.3 30.8 2.1 7.3 8.4 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.9 4.5 2.1 -6.8 -6.7 -5.9 7.5
8.0 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
6.5 5.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 8.8 3.3 4.9 904.6 65.0 13.0 6.1 5.6 9.5 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 10.0 3.6 6.2 2.5 0.8 2.3 0.8 3.4 2.2 -8.2 -4.4 2.8 8.4 6.9 6.6 2.2 3.5 4.6 5.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 7.6 6.7 1.0- 2.6 4.9 7.6 6.0 2.5 243.6 223.5 278.7 7.0 3.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 1.9 3.2 6.5 1.9 33.3 30.7 36.6 9.0 2.3 Other
5.6 3.1 3.0 4.1 1.7 -0.7 0.7 10.0 4.3 -300.3 -251.1 -255.6 3.8 7.9 0.2 116.2 119.8 111.7 8.7 6.5 2.1 61.7 54.4 70.1 9.0 6.3 4.6 2.0- 2.9- -2.7 4.1 0.1 4.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.7 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) -0.7 2.39.3 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 -6.6 7.02.6 8.3 11.5 10.7 11.9 9.0 3.3 7.32.1 9.1 29.9 32.2 28.4 8.5 4.6 5.15.4 8.0 -68.1 -69.8 -86.2 8.1 -2.7 5.2
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1.66 1 695.7 211.4 91 100
-61 -0.7 2.0 66 175 32.7 9.4 65 83-2 54.3 54.3 96 50
-55 -3.3 -0.3 60 200 11.4 4.9 83 100
6.67 1.2 GDP by Activity %-6.6 3 40.3 44.1 1 17
Med -6.5 16 24.0 16.2 81 8320 23.8 23.8 39 5010 4.4 2.9 85 80-9 7.5 7.5 95 50
1.3 GDP by Sector %8.33 2 2.5 0.9 11 67 28.4 4.6 -2 45.1 45.1 98 50
Med 2.1 22 52.3 52.3 6 501.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
6.66 1 -40.3 27.7 2 0-1 0.0 85.6 2 01 0.1 84.1 4 0
2.63.0
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-27 36.6 46.4 78 17
Rank % 4 29.1 43.5 29 17∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -20 65.7 85.9 65 171.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-2 4.9 5.1 4.1 93 Exports (2016)-37 7.0 6.1 6.3 45 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 13.5 0.0 5 44.0 46.0 37.0 72 #2 Partner Japan 11.2 0.0 3 5.5 5.5 5.8 40 #3 Partner India 10.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
-25 6.7 5.8 5.7 571.3 Infrastructure
1 5.5 4.9 4.0 88-4 8.8 8.5 6.9 87
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 7.5 7.8 8.3 51 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM4 38.1 63.7 44.4 74 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
10 2.2 7.3 0.8 82 -1 32.7 38.2 1.6 16.0 681.5 Health -1 83.5 85.4 0.2 57.9 85
13 73.1 75.7 73.6 75 5 71.5 71.6 0.0 65.6 95-6 18.4 13.4 14.5 44 18 4.6 7.7 6.6 9.6 26
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 4 13.1 23.9 8.2 23.0 34
3.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 30
2017-27
86
2017
-2.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
6733
673383
7.678.71.9
8.1
37
83
87
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
91
52
70
60178372
50
4.65.2
49.0
83
4.96.0
4.94.5
96
83
67
5083
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.6
Med 2
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
923
External
111.7
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
28.4
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
-0.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-6.6
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.73.34.4
Tourism2
Med 107.3
Med 3.3
Med 5.8
M2 Stock
3.3
-0.7
REER111.7
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 28.4
98599585
96
3
Region
70
Real Rate
944
82
63.7
-1.3
30.4
897
69
Life expectancy (yrs) 61 3376.7
4
13
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
44
58.7
56.447.4
50Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
29
15
Remittances2
Imports G&S 3336.6
4.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.5
4.4
5.0
2018f1.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
92
United Arab Emirates
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.7 5.9 3.6 4.8 3.3 5.5 7.3 5.6 4.5 6.4- 7.8- -6.5 6.5 6.0 4.1 21.4 19.6 21.0 6.7 5.6 5.1 23.2 22.5 22.4 9.2 4.0 4.1 -6.0 -5.6 -5.2 0.4 5.3 4.2 29.6 30.3 28.8 3.7 4.5 7.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 7.1 5.6 3.1 -11.1 -11.3 -10.5 9.4
6.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
2.2 1.5 -2.2 -1.3 -0.1 5.6 4.1 5.2 8.1 5.3 5.9 2.9 5.3 4.9 -1.4 -0.7 -0.9 7.8 4.3 5.4 5.5 3.3 4.5 2.5 5.4 2.8 2.6 2.0 5.4 7.3 2.5 5.5 4.1 1.7 2.1 3.5
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
4.6 2.8 376.7 380.8 406.4 1.5 3.9 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.8 3.5 2.3 4.3 100.4 103.8 104.7 1.0 2.3 Other
3.5 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.0 2.0 3.7 3.7 2.8 -319.8 -329.7 -344.9 0.8 6.7 1.9 110.0 112.9 107.1 8.4 4.7 3.5 82.4 83.2 86.9 9.1 2.3 3.9 3.9- 1.3- -0.3 2.4 8.9 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 9.1 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.0 4.66.1 4.8 3.4 3.9 3.8 2.6 -6.5 5.05.8 4.6 68.4 76.6 73.1 1.5 5.5 7.86.1 4.6 5.0 4.5 4.6 2.5 2.1 6.87.7 5.4 -3.4 -32.6 -36.4 4.2 -0.3 8.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth5 -2 384.1 211.4 85 67
-11 2.0 2.0 32 507 9.4 9.4 31 500 74.2 54.3 98 83
-0.34.9
5 1.2 GDP by Activity %-6.5 -31 55.1 44.1 59 83
Med -6.5 31 13.0 16.2 3 179 22.0 23.8 36 17-3 1.4 2.9 71 019 8.5 7.5 69 67
1.3 GDP by Sector %5 0 0.9 0.9 4 50
4.6 2.1 5 50.4 45.1 93 67Med 2.1 1 48.7 52.3 17 33
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)1.66 -11 38.8 27.7 76 67
10 109.2 85.6 75 839 90.8 84.1 76 67
2.63.0
1.4 Openness (% GDP)5 104.7 46.4 93 100
Rank % 6 96.2 43.5 91 100∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 4 200.9 85.9 93 1001.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
2 4.9 5.2 4.1 95 Exports (2016)1 7.3 7.7 6.3 90 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner India 10.5 0.0 1 68.0 66.0 37.0 94 #2 Partner Iran 9.5 0.0
55 5.3 7.1 5.8 87 #3 Partner Japan 9.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts70 4.0 7.5 5.7 93
1.3 Infrastructure3 6.2 6.4 4.0 1002 9.1 9.9 6.9 99
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-4 8.8 8.9 8.3 58 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-2 82.2 90.4 44.4 97 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-1 4.6 5.1 0.8 79 2 9.4 10.7 1.4 16.0 40
1.5 Health 0 86.1 88.1 0.2 57.9 87-3 77.7 77.1 73.6 88 0 85.0 84.2 -0.1 65.6 100-4 7.1 7.0 14.5 17 0 1.3 3.8 18.1 9.6 0
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 20 8.2 25.4 20.8 23.0 36
5.5
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 16
2017-27
87
2017
-2.6 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
83100
100100100
7.678.71.9
8.1
30
22
97
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
97
63
99
80676780
21
4.65.2
49.0
17
4.96.0
4.94.5
93
89
93
100100
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.1
Med 2
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
8321
External
107.1
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
4.6
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-6.5
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.14.14.4
Tourism2
Med 107.3
Med 3.3
Med 5.8
M2 Stock
5.5
2
REER107.1
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 4.6
35466789
98
65
Region
39
Real Rate
98
63.7
-1.3
30.4
1000
38
Life expectancy (yrs) 91 8376.7
27
4
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
97
58.7
56.447.4
98Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
18
8585
Remittances2
Imports G&S 9736.6
7.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.6
4.4
5.9
2018f2.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
93
LatAm
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1
2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum12015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)3.2 4.0 5.6 -3.2 -1.7 -1.8 2.1 2.9 6.9 3.3- 2.8- -3.3 8.6
2.9 6.9 -1.6 -1.9 -1.5 9.0 5.7 2.1 22.8 22.6 23.4 7.5 5.0 5.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 5.4 4.6 7.2 27.4 27.3 27.9 8.6 6.8 3.9 -3.3 -3.6 -3.2 0.2 0.7 10.0 2.3 2.0 2.6 10.0 0.6 5.4 2.0 2.5 2.3 3.0 3.2 5.4 0.9- 0.6- -0.7 7.5
8.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.1 Price Indicators (%)
2.4 5.6 1.7 2.4 2.2 7.6 1.9 5.3 11.5 8.8 9.0 1.1 4.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.6 0.1 5.4 4.0 9.8 10.2 9.4 1.6
0.3 6.5 -0.6 0.6 0.3 5.6 5.0 5.8 3.6 3.6 4.1 2.8 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.4 4.3 2.0 4.2 3.0 3.0
4.8 2.0 23.7 23.8 25.7 1.5 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 8.2
6.1 5.5 25.3 24.7 24.5 9.5 3. Other
2.8 CPI 2.7 6.5 7.2 7.7 7.4 3.9 4.0 5.6 2.8 2.2 2.6 3.2 7.3 1.3 -25.4 -23.6 -26.9 2.0 6.8 3.9 105.2 106.2 105.7 9.3 2.5 4.3 95.6 98.7 99.5 5.5 6.5 4.9 1.9 1.0 1.1 4.1
3.2 6.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score9.3 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.6 4.5
2.7 6.7 3.0 2.8 3.0 4.9 -3.3 8.01.3 9.1 39.2 30.3 40.6 6.5 -1.8 3.5
0.6 5.4 4.9 6.0 6.0 0.3 4.1 2.60.7 6.2 -3.1 -1.8 -2.1 8.3 1.1 5.2
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank # of 8LatAm EM* Africa CIS E Asia CEMEA 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 75.2 66.3 32.3 41.1 309.7 77.1 60 2.6 3.7 3.8 2.8 5.5 4.1 60 13.9 16.9 24.3 9.1 41.3 7.1 51 13.7 12.9 3.9 9.8 15.0 29.1 4-1 1.1 1.9 0.9 2.0 2.7 2.3 6-2 7.6 6.1 11.1 5.6 3.5 7.2 4
1.2 GDP by Activity %-1 67.3 63.7 72.0 61.1 54.0 58.3 41 13.6 14.6 14.9 17.1 12.3 18.7 50 20.7 22.2 21.0 24.0 25.3 20.6 70 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.3 61 -4.1 -1.3 -8.5 0.1 1.5 2.7 5
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 7.1 8.3 18.0 11.4 9.6 3.4 52 28.1 30.4 26.2 32.3 35.8 30.3 40 62.2 58.7 54.3 54.4 53.2 66.2 3
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)1 24.5 25.3 24.9 66.2 18.2 39.5 50 50.0 56.4 28.0 35.5 136.4 69.2 60 41.8 47.4 40.4 28.8 129.7 59.4 6-1 7.4 3.9 4.0 6.5 1.9 1.5 3
-1 6.8 7.1 7.7 22.3 8.7 6.6 51.4 Openness (% GDP)
0 Exports G&S 24.5 36.6 29.5 38.3 65.8 58.7 7Rank # of 8 2 Imports G&S 29.2 39.9 35.1 48.3 54.4 58.1 5
∆Rank EM 0 56.1 74.4 63.8 85.2 123.1 115.0 71.1 Aggregate
1-2
1.2 Institutions0-1-1
1.3 Infrastructure10
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation Ave % Growth EM* Median Rank # of 8-1 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20272 0 11.1 12.7 1.5 16.0 1.6 50 0 69.3 72.8 0.5 57.9 0.7 3
1.5 Health -3 64.5 65.2 0.1 65.6 -0.1 41 0 11.1 15.6 4.1 9.6 3.4 40 0 28.9 41.5 4.3 23.0 5.4 4
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank *EM median is the median of all EM countries and not the median of all regional medians2% C/A Receipts
-1.8
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
CPI5
Demographic Forecasts
Population (mm)
Dependancy Ratio (retired)Retired/Child Ratio
18.52027
12.935.4
2017-27 2017
7
4
5
4
61.8 3
21.1 43.5 32.9
Urban Pop. (% total)
2011
4.05.8
36.05.84.5
3.86.6
7.899.20.6
Total Trade
436
55
447
REER Imp. Cover (mths)Med 5.95 / Score 0.3
CA (% GDP)Med -1.75 / Score 2.1
EM*
4.16.3
2011
56
Med 105.7 / Score 9.3
Global Comp. Index (1-7) 4.1 6
2016 2016
4Ease of Business Index (1-10) 6.3
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Macro Risk scoresMacro Road Sign: Risk Time series
Growth
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real GDP (%) Current Acc. Fiscal Bal.2.6 Level Trade Bal. Budget Rev.
-3.3 Net FDI Dom. Cred GrowthNet Port. Flows M2 Growth
Level Exports G&S
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP) Moderate
Moderate Services Bal. Budget exp.Income Bal. Debt Interest
Qaility Transfers Bal. Primary bal.
Imp. Cover (mths) Overvalued Remittances3
Net Ext. Flow2 CPI5
Currency PPICA Credits MM Rate
Real GDP (%)
Low Imports G&SREER 105.7 Broad Money
6 4.1 CA DebitsVulnerability Terms of Trade4
REER4
Real Rate
2018f momentumReal GDP (%) 2.8 5.3
-3.2Short term debt
Imp Cover (mths)External Moderate Domestic Moderate Capital Flight Real Rate6 1.3 5.6
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
Real GDP (%)
Med 2.55 / Score 3.2
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Med -3.25 / Score 8.6
CPI
Med 4.06 / Score 2.8
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high pressure). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Nominal GDP $Real GDP (%) 2.0
Gulf
9.4
Economic Structure
Median
3.1 0.1
67.9 54.911.7 19.2
5.3 4.3
6
4.9
2.9
62.2 160.6
-6.5 2.4
16.7 1.1
6
563
66
26.0
7.5
Competitiveness
55.8 96.94.1
62
45.1
15.5 46.4 33.7 7
M2 StockRemittances2
Tourism2
Corruption Perc. Index (1-100) 36.0 37.05.85.7
3.7 6Getting Electricity (1-10) 7.0 5
4.06.9
Infrastructure Index (1-7)
Contract Enforcement (1-10) 6.1Protecting minority investors 5.4
Patents (applications/mm pop) 0.5 6Internet users (% Pop) 105.6 6Education (ave yrs for pop>25) 8.1 48.3
113.80.8
46
5
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000) 14.3 4Life expectancy (yrs) 74.0 5
14.573.118.8
73.6 44
66.6
5
66
552
367
77
76.7
2.317.2
1031.1
3.0
Working Age Pop. (% total) 64.6
56.3 52.3 71.5
GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
44.116.223.8
5.5 54.3 51.24.2 -0.3 0.8
27.5 23.2
39.4 85.9
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
27.785.684.12.6
0.928.7 45.1
12.9
AgricultureIndustryServices
Net DebtDom Credit Stock
4.3
-2.3 6.5
3.8 4.3
Private Con.
6.7164.7Population
∆Rank1 S Asia G10 2017
246.6 211.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Region Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
- 5.0 10.0
LatAmAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
CEMEAGulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
LatAmAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
CEMEAGulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
LatAmAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
CEMEAGulfG10EM
0.0 5.0 10.0
LatAmAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
CEMEAGulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
LatAmAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
CEMEAGulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
LatAmAfrica
CISE AsiaS Asia
CEMEAGulfG10EM
94
Argentina
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.4 4.8 8.7 -2.7 -2.7 -3.9 9.7 8.7 5.8 4.8- 5.9- -6.1 9.8 2.0 9.0 -0.1 0.8 -0.6 9.6 9.3 6.8 22.6 20.3 19.7 7.8
10.0 5.1 -0.9 -1.5 -1.5 9.9 2.4 4.0 27.4 26.2 25.8 8.6 7.9 3.7 -1.9 -2.2 -2.1 1.8 1.5 9.0 2.1 1.6 2.2 9.8 2.8 5.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.4 9.9 2.8 2.8- 4.3- -3.9 9.6
9.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.3 1.1 1.7 0.3 1.6 5.0 0.0 8.4 53.1 29.2 40.5 7.5 2.8 4.6 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 2.3 5.8 2.2 39.6 41.5 34.0 7.3 9.1 4.8 -1.0 -2.4 -2.3 9.5 9.9 0.1 26.5 41.4 23.2 4.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 10.0 0.3 11.9 37.2 16.0 4.7 4.5 4.0 75.0 76.4 79.4 7.3 0.0 8.2 22.0 32.3 29.3 0.2 0.5 8.5 11.0 12.8 11.3 9.4 2.3 Other
4.6 4.2 5.0 0.7 0.7 0.7 5.8 2.6 7.5 2.6 2.2- 2.8 5.4 5.3 1.7 -92.1 -90.9 -104.6 1.5 7.2 8.0 114.3 118.7 125.4 9.4 1.5 7.5 98.3 104.2 100.2 4.9 7.4 0.2 4.5- 9.1- 6.1 0.0 8.3 4.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.8 6.50.0 3.2 7.0 4.1 3.4 4.8 -6.1 9.10.2 3.0 232.9 123.2 89.9 5.4 -3.9 9.11.3 2.4 4.0 6.2 7.7 4.0 23.2 2.00.7 2.2 -31.1 -4.6 11.1 0.4 6.1 0.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth5.88 3 642.0 75.2 88 88
-7 2.8 2.6 41 590 44.3 13.9 76 82-1 22.0 13.7 71 82
-19 1.7 1.1 64 100-1 8.6 7.6 69 65
8.24 1.2 GDP by Activity %-6.1 9 67.9 67.3 51 53
Med -3.3 13 17.9 13.6 56 82-7 15.6 20.7 21 2414 0.5 0.5 26 53-26 -1.9 -4.1 75 65
1.3 GDP by Sector %9.41 5 10.9 7.1 54 76 7.7 23.2 -15 28.2 28.1 53 53
Med 4.1 -1 60.9 62.2 60 351.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
8.82 -13 24.5 24.5 60 504 40.8 50.0 29 24-3 29.4 41.8 28 24-8 0.7 7.4 25 7
6.81.4 Openness (% GDP)
-8 11.3 24.5 13 6Rank % 1 13.2 29.2 2 12
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 0 24.5 56.1 3 121.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-19 3.9 3.8 4.1 20 Exports (2016)0 5.6 5.7 6.3 29 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Brazil 15.2 0.0 4 35.0 36.0 37.0 47 #2 Partner China 8.1 0.0
16 6.3 6.5 5.8 74 #3 Partner Vietnam 7.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts31 5.0 6.2 5.7 67
1.3 Infrastructure-17 3.5 3.0 4.0 11-3 7.3 7.0 6.9 53
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 9.0 9.3 8.3 63 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM19 30.4 64.7 44.4 75 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-9 1.8 1.3 0.8 61 0 44.3 48.2 0.9 16.0 74
1.5 Health 1 92.0 93.2 0.1 57.9 94-3 75.3 76.2 73.6 77 14 63.9 64.4 0.1 65.6 48-3 14.6 11.9 14.5 35 -7 17.5 19.6 1.2 9.6 68
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -4 45.0 55.2 2.3 23.0 66
-3.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 70
2017-27
93
2017
11.2 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
1924
538882
8.144.40.5
14.3
58
36
29
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
57
64
56
76946370
39
4.16.3
36.0
13
6.15.4
3.77.0
40
29
43
1959
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
23.2
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
9133
External
125.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
7.7
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-6.1
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.7-3.718.1
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-3.9
2.8
REER125.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 7.7
70144048
37
46
Region
76
Real Rate
704468
63.7
-1.3
30.4
3376
74
Life expectancy (yrs) 80 6974.0
60
60
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
3
58.7
56.447.4
4Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
59
342517Remittances2
Imports G&S 336.6
3.1
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.3
3.3
4.3
2018f3.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
95
Barbados
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
8.2 2.9 7.4 -6.5 -4.5 -6.8 3.1 0.5 2.9 9.8- 5.5- -3.9 0.9 3.4 6.5 -23.8 -22.3 -23.7 2.2 0.9 3.4 27.8 30.2 31.0 0.1 3.2 3.7 22.1 23.3 24.2 1.1 1.3 3.4 37.6 35.7 35.0 5.4 5.0 8.2 -4.8 -4.8 -6.6 9.7 9.6 9.2 7.6 8.1 8.4 9.5 8.6 4.9 0.0 -0.7 -0.7 8.8 0.3 2.6 2.2- 2.6 4.5 0.0
0.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
2.4 4.7 -1.6 5.2 5.9 5.4 7.4 3.6 4.0 6.0 4.8 5.8 5.8 4.4 1.6 3.7 2.6 5.4
1.9 5.6 -8.1 0.7 -0.9 4.5 7.9 5.5 1.1- 1.5 1.9 2.5 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
2.7 4.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 3.5 5.4 5.1 6.8 6.7 6.7 7.3 3.5 4.5 37.0 38.2 38.6 7.0 2.3 Other
2.5 6.1 5.1 0.9 1.6 1.6 8.2 4.7 2.8 -2.6 -2.6 -2.7 4.6 9.6 8.9 103.7 107.6 109.9 9.9
7.9 5.5 8.0 5.2 4.8 3.7 5.1 6.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.9 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.6 8.010.0 10.0 7.9 10.5 16.6 10.0 -3.9 0.6
-6.8 1.98.2 9.0 3.3 2.5 1.6 10.0 1.9 3.6
4.8 4.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth2.94 0 4.7 75.2 1 0
10 1.6 2.6 5 290 0.3 13.9 0 0-9 17.4 13.7 70 71
1.18 10.4 7.6 71 76
7.06 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.9 26 81.2 67.3 64 82
Med -3.3 -42 13.5 13.6 84 41-11 13.5 20.7 18 68 0.2 0.5 15 20
-16 -8.4 -4.1 43 181.3 GDP by Sector %
1.76 -1 1.6 7.1 6 0 1.6 1.9 -5 11.4 28.1 6 0
Med 4.1 1 86.9 62.2 98 1001.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
7.05 24.5-1 129.0 50.0 93 100-6 99.2 41.8 93 100
7.46.8
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-6 38.6 24.5 60 82
Rank % -5 47.8 29.2 70 88∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -5 86.4 56.1 68 881.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
4.5 4.1 Exports (2016)-27 6.3 5.7 6.3 28 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 13.8 0.0 -9 76.0 61.0 37.0 87 #2 Partner Brazil 5.6 0.0 -4 4.2 3.8 5.8 11 #3 Partner China 5.2 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-4 3.3 3.5 5.7 7
1.3 Infrastructure5.9 4.0
3 6.8 6.9 6.9 511.4 Human Capital and Innovation
-4 9.2 9.3 8.3 63 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM73.7 44.4 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202711.5 0.8 0 0.3 0.3 0.1 16.0 0
1.5 Health -1 31.4 32.0 0.2 57.9 977.0 73.6 -31 66.0 61.9 -0.6 65.6 2610.1 14.5 2 22.7 32.4 4.3 9.6 88
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 1 78.4 111.8 4.3 23.0 82
-6.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 81
2017-27
10
2017
4.1 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
18
881212
8.144.40.5
14.3
15
11
96
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
48
67
94
76
91
29
4.16.3
36.06.15.4
3.77.0
79
57
97
53
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.9
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
116
External
109.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
1.6
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.6Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.9
High
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.5-6.02.6
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-6.8
1.6
REER109.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 1.6
416
2326
1
Region
0
Real Rate
60
79
63.7
-1.3
30.4
5786
0
Life expectancy (yrs) 8974.0
91
5
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
63
58.7
56.447.4
54Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
99
9286
Remittances2
Imports G&S 6536.6
5.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.8
4.5
4.0
2018f1.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
96
Bolivia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.5 5.0 3.5 -5.7 -5.7 -4.3 9.1 4.4 4.9 6.9- 6.6- -6.5 9.6 6.4 4.5 -1.0 -2.6 -2.1 9.6 9.6 6.9 47.8 43.1 41.7 9.8 4.9 2.3 -4.8 -4.8 -4.3 7.9 0.6 3.2 54.7 49.7 48.2 5.8 0.6 5.7 -3.4 -1.8 -2.0 0.4 2.4 6.2 1.0 0.7 0.8 2.0 5.1 1.8 3.5 3.5 4.1 7.5 4.9 4.6 5.9- 5.9- -5.7 9.6
9.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
7.4 3.1 1.7 0.8 1.5 8.7 0.8 4.8 29.9 18.5 18.0 5.6 1.0 9.1 16.3 3.9- 15.0 3.3
5.9 3.0 -4.0 -4.9 -2.8 9.3 4.7 4.2 4.1 3.6 2.7 1.5 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.8 2.3 11.4 9.8 11.5 3.9 5.2 4.2 1.6 1.4 1.9 6.6 8.6 5.3 30.9 24.6 24.1 9.9 2.3 Other
1.5 2.3 7.2 10.4 12.4 11.2 5.1 3.3 4.2 4.9 4.3 4.0 1.5 9.0 1.9 -13.3 -11.7 -13.0 1.8 9.0 3.7 126.3 134.0 132.2 9.7 4.2 2.6 85.8 89.1 99.3 5.2 4.7 3.5 2.5- 2.2- -0.8 1.2 0.7 4.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.7 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.0 0.610.0 10.0 1.2 1.5 2.1 10.0 -6.5 8.16.2 9.9 3.3 4.7 6.6 10.0 -4.3 8.48.1 9.5 13.2 11.3 8.3 10.0 2.7 3.87.4 8.9 -1.5 -2.2 -3.7 9.9 -0.8 5.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth8.23 10 36.2 75.2 23 29
-5 4.0 2.6 61 823 11.1 13.9 41 472 7.5 13.7 29 6
1.15 7.6 7.6 59 47
8.83 1.2 GDP by Activity %-6.5 16 69.1 67.3 49 59
Med -3.3 15 17.6 13.6 52 7618 20.2 20.7 11 4722 0.5 0.5 18 53-49 -7.4 -4.1 80 29
1.3 GDP by Sector %2.94 -5 13.0 7.1 68 82 8.3 2.7 3 37.3 28.1 79 94
Med 4.1 -4 54.2 62.2 38 01.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
9.41 13 15.6 24.5 11 1327 73.1 50.0 39 7115 47.2 41.8 34 65-2 11.2 7.4 73 67
6.81.4 Openness (% GDP)
-30 24.1 24.5 59 47Rank % -2 31.5 29.2 39 59
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -16 55.6 56.1 48 471.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-10 3.6 3.6 4.1 13 Exports (2016)-7 5.0 5.0 6.3 12 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Brazil 21.1 0.0 -1 34.0 33.0 37.0 35 #2 Partner United States 14.4 0.0 -8 5.5 5.2 5.8 29 #3 Partner Argentina 10.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-4 4.0 4.2 5.7 17
1.3 Infrastructure2 3.3 3.3 4.0 254 6.4 6.8 6.9 45
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation1 8.7 9.2 8.3 61 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM4 11.2 39.0 44.4 38 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-29 0.4 0.1 0.8 11 1 11.1 12.7 1.5 16.0 461.5 Health 1 69.3 72.8 0.5 57.9 68
-2 65.7 67.2 73.6 25 14 61.7 63.8 0.3 65.6 40-8 45.7 31.2 14.5 69 -8 10.9 12.3 1.3 9.6 48
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 21.2 27.5 3.0 23.0 43
-4.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 45
2017-27
67
2017
-2.6 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
136
414124
8.144.40.5
14.3
38
22
23
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
40
60
33
71191340
78
4.16.3
36.0
100
6.15.4
3.77.0
23
20
36
3835
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.7
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
3356
External
132.2
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8.3
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-6.5
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.9-3.84.5
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-4.3
4
REER132.2
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8.3
68304030
82
25
Region
44
Real Rate
31
63
63.7
-1.3
30.4
2656
45
Life expectancy (yrs) 27 074.0
66
63
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
31
58.7
56.447.4
28Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
34
664971Remittances2
Imports G&S 3636.6
6.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum2.9
2.0
4.5
2018f3.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
97
Brazil
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.5 0.2 2.5 -3.3 -1.3 -0.5 0.5 1.5 8.0 8.2- 6.4- -8.0 9.8 0.2 4.6 1.0 2.5 2.6 0.6 9.6 6.6 37.1 36.0 35.7 9.9 0.0 2.8 -2.1 -1.7 -1.6 5.9 6.0 3.8 36.8 37.0 36.8 9.4 4.4 1.6 -2.4 -2.3 -1.7 0.9 0.1 8.3 8.5 5.4 6.9 9.0 3.7 1.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.8 8.7 5.4 0.2 1.0- -1.1 9.8
9.8 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.1 7.9 3.4 3.6 3.2 2.5 6.0 3.3 7.4 8.6 6.4 0.4 0.7 9.0 0.7 -2.0 0.1 3.6 4.2 5.9 6.3 3.8 6.4 2.0 0.4 4.1 0.1 2.3 2.7 0.1 4.1 0.0 9.0 8.7 2.8 0.2
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 8.1 0.3 6.0 11.4 -0.3 0.3 5.6 3.0 240.5 234.6 256.1 5.0 1.3 10.0 11.0 13.5 7.0 9.8 6.3 7.5 12.9 12.5 11.7 6.1 2.3 Other
0.2 3.7 7.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 5.5 5.2 8.8 3.8- 3.6- 0.7 3.5 7.5 4.5 -299.9 -258.1 -265.9 7.5 9.2 3.4 73.4 94.2 87.9 1.9 3.5 5.3 91.1 93.9 93.4 7.9 1.3 5.8 1.9 4.7 4.2 6.3 0.4 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
1.9 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 0.7 5.94.6 7.3 1.9 1.9 2.1 1.7 -8.0 8.75.8 3.9 14.7 15.7 14.3 3.8 -0.5 2.41.0 6.2 17.6 21.6 20.7 0.2 2.8 0.98.5 5.4 -25.6 -49.8 -52.4 9.1 4.2 6.4
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0.58 0 2055.0 75.2 98 100
-41 0.7 2.6 47 60 207.7 13.9 97 100-5 15.5 13.7 60 59
-21 1.4 1.1 55 6718 12.5 7.6 70 88
9.42 1.2 GDP by Activity %-8 9 63.7 67.3 39 18
Med -3.3 -5 19.8 13.6 91 100-7 16.6 20.7 22 29
0.5 64
-5 -0.1 -4.1 64 761.3 GDP by Sector %
3.52 5 6.2 7.1 32 35 20.7 2.8 -21 20.9 28.1 34 12
Med 4.1 4 72.9 62.2 88 881.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
1.17 -7 8.6 24.5 27 63 112.9 50.0 85 94
-12 38.4 41.8 46 47-11 1.2 7.4 37 205 4.0 6.8 17 0
1.4 Openness (% GDP)0 11.7 24.5 5 12
Rank % 0 11.7 29.2 0 0∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 1 23.4 56.1 0 61.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-19 4.3 4.1 4.1 48 Exports (2016)-1 5.3 5.7 6.3 25 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 22.7 0.0 -7 43.0 40.0 37.0 57 #2 Partner United States 13.1 0.0 45 5.3 6.7 5.8 80 #3 Partner Netherlands 3.5 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts26 5.3 6.5 5.7 75
1.3 Infrastructure-32 3.8 2.9 4.0 10-18 9.1 8.1 6.9 76
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 6.8 7.2 8.3 38 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-1 38.7 57.6 44.4 70 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-1 2.8 3.5 0.8 75 -2 207.7 222.6 0.6 16.0 95
1.5 Health 0 86.2 88.2 0.2 57.9 88-4 72.4 73.9 73.6 52 7 69.7 68.9 -0.1 65.6 90
-11 18.3 12.3 14.5 36 1 12.3 17.7 4.5 9.6 66Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 3 39.3 64.9 6.5 23.0 69
-0.5
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 66
2017-27
88
2017
3.4 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
6312
8210088
8.144.40.5
14.3
34
48
43
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
95
39
71
12819477
48
4.16.3
36.0
19
6.15.4
3.77.0
68
26
65
1382
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
2.8
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
984
External
87.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
20.7
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
0.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-8
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-7.0-1.73.6
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-0.5
0.7
REER87.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 20.7
8515
58
12
20
Region
97
Real Rate
553388
63.7
-1.3
30.4
8365
97
Life expectancy (yrs) 57 4474.0
48
37
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
1
58.7
56.447.4
5Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
93
88342522
Remittances2
Imports G&S 036.6
6.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.6
2.9
8.7
2018f2.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
98
Chile
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.9 4.5 4.8 -1.9 -1.4 -1.3 5.3 5.7 4.9 2.2- 2.7- -2.7 8.0 4.3 4.7 1.4 2.1 2.4 7.0 5.2 5.3 21.1 21.0 20.8 6.7 2.2 0.8 -1.4 -1.3 -1.0 5.2 6.4 4.7 23.2 23.7 23.6 8.9 5.8 6.7 -2.6 -2.8 -3.2 1.6 6.9 5.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 9.7 6.4 5.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 9.0 5.7 5.1 1.5- 2.1- -2.1 8.0
8.0 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.6 9.0 1.5 2.1 0.3 9.9 2.6 5.1 11.3 6.0 6.2 2.3 3.5 3.7 2.4 0.8 -0.5 6.7 3.5 4.5 11.0 7.3 6.3 1.9 3.9 6.8 -0.4 0.6 -1.0 8.6 4.3 2.7 4.3 3.8 1.9 1.9
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 5.2 8.4 1.2- 0.7- 9.1 6.9 6.1 2.3 81.9 78.5 86.5 6.2 6.9 5.8 4.0 2.9 2.5 8.8 7.2 4.2 29.7 28.4 28.8 9.2 2.3 Other
1.9 4.2 4.7 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.9 6.2 2.8 -86.4 -81.9 -90.1 5.8 8.1 6.2 90.0 97.7 100.4 5.2 4.0 2.3 94.5 96.8 103.6 3.2 5.5 3.6 0.3- 0.9- 0.6 5.0 3.2 5.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
5.2 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.4 4.44.7 8.9 4.4 4.3 4.9 9.1 -2.7 7.40.0 8.2 64.8 34.0 46.2 1.3 -1.3 2.52.5 8.1 6.5 7.1 6.4 1.8 1.9 3.23.6 4.0 -9.1 -3.7 0.2 0.6 0.6 7.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1.76 2 274.9 75.2 72 71
-24 1.4 2.6 38 18-2 18.1 13.9 54 65-1 24.5 13.7 76 100
-49 0.8 1.1 71 33-14 6.9 7.6 66 29
4.12 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.7 7 63.7 67.3 41 18
Med -3.3 5 13.5 13.6 35 41-12 22.0 20.7 58 65-32 -0.3 0.5 39 0-6 1.1 -4.1 72 82
1.3 GDP by Sector %1.76 0 4.3 7.1 26 18 6.4 1.9 -14 31.3 28.1 69 65
Med 4.1 10 64.4 62.2 63 591.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
3.52 13 47.0 24.5 58 880 84.0 50.0 76 82-5 70.8 41.8 78 88
7.46.8
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-17 28.8 24.5 55 65
Rank % -16 27.7 29.2 43 41∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -13 56.5 56.1 46 531.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-6 4.7 4.6 4.1 84 Exports (2016)-17 7.1 7.0 6.3 67 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 29.5 0.0 -1 72.0 66.0 37.0 94 #2 Partner United States 14.1 0.0 6 6.4 6.3 5.8 70 #3 Partner Japan 8.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-7 6.7 6.5 5.7 75
1.3 Infrastructure-19 5.7 4.6 4.0 73-6 7.9 7.8 6.9 68
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 9.5 9.7 8.3 70 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM22 34.0 72.4 44.4 85 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20276 3.9 7.6 0.8 85 -3 18.1 19.3 0.7 16.0 52
1.5 Health 0 89.9 91.1 0.1 57.9 91-1 78.6 79.8 73.6 93 -4 68.6 66.7 -0.3 65.6 73-3 7.2 7.1 14.5 19 -1 16.2 22.7 4.0 9.6 72
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 54.6 83.2 5.2 23.0 71
-1.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 71
2017-27
91
2017
0.1 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
10082
948288
8.144.40.5
14.3
63
83
92
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
75
73
62
10010010079
22
4.16.3
36.0
0
6.15.4
3.77.0
90
85
95
8871
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.9
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
7413
External
100.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
6.4
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.4Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.7
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.4-0.32.4
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-1.3
1.4
REER100.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 6.4
41466
66
55
71
Region
52
Real Rate
752051
63.7
-1.3
30.4
7873
55
Life expectancy (yrs) 94 10074.0
48
26
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
32
58.7
56.447.4
38Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
74
7673
Remittances2
Imports G&S 2636.6
5.8
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.6
4.6
3.4
2018f2.7
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
99
Colombia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.6 0.1 2.4 -6.4 -4.4 -3.6 5.0 2.2 7.4 3.4- 2.3- -3.3 9.2 1.8 1.9 -4.7 -3.5 -2.2 8.2 3.1 5.2 26.8 27.6 27.5 7.2 0.0 6.0 -1.6 -1.1 -1.2 0.5 4.3 6.8 30.2 29.9 30.8 7.9 4.1 8.1 -1.9 -1.8 -2.3 0.9 8.9 2.3 2.6 2.9 2.7 5.2 2.5 4.5 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.5 8.1 0.9- 0.6 -0.7 9.1
9.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.0 5.6 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.5 0.2 6.7 16.9 9.0 10.9 1.9 0.2 9.4 1.7 0.0 1.4 9.3 1.6 4.7 12.5 6.9 6.5 0.8 0.4 3.8 -3.9 -1.1 -0.6 4.0 9.4 0.3 5.0 7.5 4.1 4.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.1 2.0 3.9 5.4 0.9 1.9 6.4 2.6 56.4 53.0 59.3 5.3 3.4 4.9 3.9 4.7 4.8 6.3 7.9 4.3 15.2 14.1 14.4 9.5 2.3 Other
4.6 2.2 6.7 8.3 9.3 8.7 2.9 2.9 4.3 3.1 2.0 1.6 0.6 8.2 3.2 -75.2 -65.4 -70.7 5.2 8.4 3.6 78.7 87.1 84.0 0.7 6.5 1.3 95.6 92.3 101.9 4.3 7.7 0.7 1.1- 2.8- 0.6 6.0 0.2 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.7 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.6 2.53.5 7.7 3.0 2.9 3.1 1.4 -3.3 7.64.4 4.0 25.8 25.0 23.6 3.1 -3.6 5.10.2 6.3 8.6 10.2 9.9 0.2 4.1 3.29.8 1.4 0.6 -6.6 -2.1 4.4 0.6 5.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth2.94 -2 314.9 75.2 81 76
-20 1.6 2.6 36 29-1 49.1 13.9 78 880 14.5 13.7 53 53
-28 0.7 1.1 45 22-15 9.3 7.6 89 71
5.3 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.3 -7 62.0 67.3 52 6
Med -3.3 12 18.4 13.6 63 9421 24.3 20.7 41 882 0.2 0.5 21 20
-20 -4.9 -4.1 54 351.3 GDP by Sector %
5.29 1 7.5 7.1 43 53 9.9 4.1 -9 31.3 28.1 64 65
Med 4.1 4 61.2 62.2 58 471.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
0 11 24.8 24.5 36 56-2 54.8 50.0 46 59-3 46.8 41.8 51 59-2 8.7 7.4 69 53
6.81.4 Openness (% GDP)
-1 14.4 24.5 10 18Rank % 5 19.4 29.2 3 18
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 3 33.8 56.1 2 181.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
2 4.1 4.3 4.1 60 Exports (2016)-6 6.9 7.1 6.3 71 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 36.5 0.0 4 36.0 37.0 37.0 50 #2 Partner China 6.6 0.0 -1 3.6 3.4 5.8 7 #3 Partner Netherlands 4.1 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-5 8.0 7.3 5.7 90
1.3 Infrastructure-10 3.6 3.2 4.0 2218 6.5 7.4 6.9 62
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 7.0 7.3 8.3 41 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
-15 45.5 52.6 44.4 63 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 1.1 1.4 0.8 62 -1 49.1 52.4 0.7 16.0 76
1.5 Health -1 77.0 79.5 0.3 57.9 78-6 73.0 74.0 73.6 53 7 68.9 68.6 0.0 65.6 874 16.5 14.5 14.5 50 3 11.1 16.6 5.0 9.6 64
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 4 32.6 57.1 7.5 23.0 67
-3.6
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 63
2017-27
79
2017
1.5 5.1
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
8194
650
100
8.144.40.5
14.3
8
96
32
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
43
43
78
24696962
46
4.16.3
36.0
56
6.15.4
3.77.0
58
77
46
3165
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.1
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
7916
External
84
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
9.9
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.6Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.3
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.8-3.73.3
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-3.6
1.6
REER84
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 9.9
75632333
55
47
Region
77
Real Rate
531674
63.7
-1.3
30.4
8061
77
Life expectancy (yrs) 60 5074.0
45
44
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
5
58.7
56.447.4
9Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
62
444767Remittances2
Imports G&S 836.6
3.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum7.0
3.7
5.4
2018f2.5
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
100
Dominican Rep
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.3 4.3 6.1 -1.9 -1.5 -2.2 1.1 8.9 3.8 0.0 2.8- -2.1 3.7 4.5 6.2 -11.0 -10.6 -11.4 1.7 9.8 3.5 17.5 14.8 15.4 2.9 1.5 2.8 6.4 6.9 7.2 0.3 5.3 4.9 17.5 17.6 17.6 5.9 7.9 8.4 -4.3 -4.8 -5.4 9.8 9.8 9.1 2.6 2.9 3.1 9.9 4.1 0.7 7.0 7.1 7.5 0.6 8.7 3.5 2.7 0.1 1.0 1.9
3.7 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.6 4.1 3.2 3.4 3.7 6.3 1.2 2.5 16.9 11.3 8.8 0.7 4.0 7.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.1 6.5 4.1 5.7 11.6 10.0 11.0 5.1 4.0 5.8 1.3 1.9 1.5 0.9 5.7 7.2 0.8 1.6 4.1 4.3
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
1.7 0.9 23.2 24.4 26.2 0.2 6.5 5.2 6.3 5.4 5.3 8.8 3.9 2.6 24.7 25.2 26.2 1.2 2.3 Other
4.3 4.2 4.3 21.4 21.6 21.7 1.0 4.6 2.6 7.0 6.6 4.2 3.3 3.4 1.5 -24.4 -25.4 -27.8 0.3 2.8 0.0 99.3 98.5 94.9 0.0 2.4 8.7 110.7 115.4 108.1 1.3 6.8 7.7 5.4 3.7 1.1 7.8 4.5 6.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.2 3.93.0 6.1 3.5 3.3 3.4 1.9 -2.1 4.21.4 5.8 59.1 45.2 47.4 3.2 -2.2 2.12.5 5.9 3.1 3.5 3.4 0.7 4.1 4.41.1 6.6 -3.1 -1.7 -2.2 9.0 1.1 7.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth8.82 4 73.9 75.2 48 47
24 4.2 2.6 33 881 10.8 13.9 42 416 15.9 13.7 51 654 1.5 1.1 36 89-2 12.8 7.6 94 94
2.95 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.1 -4 69.9 67.3 73 71
Med -3.3 -10 10.9 13.6 27 12-16 22.8 20.7 71 76-11 0.6 0.5 58 8017 -4.2 -4.1 22 47
1.3 GDP by Sector %5.88 -3 5.4 7.1 37 29 3.4 4.1 19 33.5 28.1 45 76
Med 4.1 -20 61.1 62.2 82 411.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
1.76 10 31.2 24.5 48 63-7 48.7 50.0 48 47-6 29.3 41.8 31 18-3 21.7 7.4 83 73-3 28.0 6.8 97 86
1.4 Openness (% GDP)15 26.2 24.5 18 59
Rank % -3 30.3 29.2 38 53∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 7 56.5 56.1 25 531.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-3 3.7 3.9 4.1 26 Exports (2016)-13 6.2 5.9 6.3 39 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 52.1 0.0 0 32.0 31.0 37.0 30 #2 Partner Canada 10.3 0.0
-25 6.1 5.1 5.8 28 #3 Partner India 7.1 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts1 5.0 5.3 5.7 37
1.3 Infrastructure7 3.2 3.5 4.0 28
-27 6.7 5.2 6.9 181.4 Human Capital and Innovation
-2 6.9 7.2 8.3 38 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM12 26.8 49.6 44.4 60 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-6 0.5 0.5 0.8 40 0 10.8 11.8 1.0 16.0 44
1.5 Health 2 80.6 86.2 0.7 57.9 86-11 72.6 73.5 73.6 48 21 63.7 64.9 0.2 65.6 53-4 27.2 23.6 14.5 63 -4 11.0 14.4 3.1 9.6 54
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 23.8 36.1 5.2 23.0 51
-2.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 51
2017-27
84
2017
1.3 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
2547
293553
8.144.40.5
14.3
54
36
21
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
47
40
48
12635047
67
4.16.3
36.0
88
6.15.4
3.77.0
29
52
30
446
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.1
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
5258
External
94.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3.4
DomesticLow Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.1
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.6-2.74.0
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-2.2
4.2
REER94.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3.4
17544640
65
58
Region
43
Real Rate
574093
63.7
-1.3
30.4
3259
44
Life expectancy (yrs) 59 2574.0
69
34
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
32
58.7
56.447.4
33Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
61
41248194
Remittances2
Imports G&S 3436.6
4.9
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.0
5.9
6.0
2018f4.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
101
El Salvador
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
6.9 2.5 4.7 -3.6 -2.0 -1.8 0.8 3.4 7.7 3.3- 2.8- -3.6 4.9 2.3 5.2 -19.2 -17.3 -17.4 0.9 1.3 4.5 19.8 20.6 20.7 0.6 8.2 9.9 3.1 2.8 2.2 4.6 6.8 8.6 23.1 23.4 24.2 9.1 8.0 6.1 -4.2 -4.6 -4.7 9.4 9.3 4.0 2.5 2.6 2.6 9.2 2.4 0.2 16.7 17.1 18.1 0.4 2.8 7.6 0.8- 0.2- -0.9 3.8
4.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.2 5.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 6.3 2.7 5.3 8.3 3.2 3.9 4.9 5.7 1.3 0.2 0.6 -2.1 0.2 3.1 7.9 6.6 3.1 8.5 8.5 3.1 4.9 -2.0 -0.6 -0.5 1.7 7.0 6.6 0.9- 0.5 1.7 4.2
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.6 6.2 8.0- 3.0- 0.9 4.7 3.6 1.0 11.4 11.6 12.3 0.3 1.6 1.6 3.2 3.5 3.8 0.1 6.9 4.9 25.8 24.9 24.9 7.9 2.3 Other
4.2 1.0 2.9 37.6 39.5 40.5 3.4 5.1 5.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 6.9 5.7 2.5 -12.3 -12.1 -12.8 0.8 4.4 3.7 102.5 102.2 101.5 8.2 3.9 6.1 102.0 102.9 102.2 1.3 6.7 6.4 4.1 3.0 2.1 4.2 2.8 4.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.2 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.4 6.71.7 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 -3.6 3.21.8 5.1 72.4 58.9 59.4 6.2 -1.8 1.22.2 5.4 3.1 3.7 3.6 3.8 1.7 4.00.7 10.0 0.0 0.4 -0.8 10.0 2.1 3.4
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth4.7 -3 27.8 75.2 30 18
15 2.4 2.6 11 47-2 6.4 13.9 29 24-1 9.0 13.7 38 1828 1.2 1.1 2 568 6.9 7.6 43 29
6.48 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.6 -2 88.4 67.3 99 100
Med -3.3 8 12.1 13.6 19 291 13.6 20.7 6 12
0.54 -14.1 -4.1 9 12
1.3 GDP by Sector %1.17 -1 10.7 7.1 60 71 3.6 1.7 -6 24.4 28.1 28 29
Med 4.1 0 64.9 62.2 77 651.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
4.11 -8 46.4 24.5 78 81-15 51.3 50.0 58 53-3 0.0 41.8 5 61 40.5 7.4 96 100
16 6.9 6.8 31 571.4 Openness (% GDP)
4 24.9 24.5 26 53Rank % -10 39.1 29.2 59 71
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 0 64.0 56.1 42 651.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-14 4.0 3.9 4.1 28 Exports (2016)1 6.1 6.1 6.3 43 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 46.2 0.0 -8 38.0 36.0 37.0 47 #2 Partner Mexico 2.3 0.0
-10 6.0 5.5 5.8 41 #3 Partner Hong Kong 2.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts5 3.0 3.8 5.7 12
1.3 Infrastructure-23 5.1 4.0 4.0 553 6.3 6.4 6.9 39
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation0 7.0 7.5 8.3 43 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-5 14.4 29.7 44.4 34 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-34 0.5 0.1 0.8 9 0 6.4 6.7 0.5 16.0 291.5 Health 0 67.6 71.7 0.6 57.9 66
3 71.3 72.3 73.6 47 21 64.3 65.3 0.1 65.6 602 15.6 13.5 14.5 45 -6 12.9 15.6 2.1 9.6 60
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -3 30.2 41.5 3.7 23.0 57
-1.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 61
2017-27
66
2017
2.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
3153
535918
8.144.40.5
14.3
52
7
78
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
36
43
39
2913644
43
4.16.3
36.0
44
6.15.4
3.77.0
43
42
55
7518
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
1.7
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
2727
External
101.5
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3.6
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.4Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.6
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.4-1.61.3
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-1.8
2.4
REER101.5
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3.6
277
14
22
70
Region
27
Real Rate
363151
63.7
-1.3
30.4
3866
29
Life expectancy (yrs) 43 1974.0
97
59
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
42
58.7
56.447.4
30Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
77
422
9847
Remittances2
Imports G&S 4936.6
4.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.4
4.2
4.6
2018f2.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
102
Ecuador
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
2.3 0.0 8.8 -2.1 1.5 -0.8 7.0 8.8 1.6 5.1- 7.4- -5.4 8.3 0.1 9.1 -1.7 1.6 -0.8 7.5 7.5 3.2 33.8 30.7 33.0 6.4 9.2 3.8 -0.8 -1.1 -1.0 1.1 4.3 5.2 39.0 38.2 38.4 5.9 6.1 7.3 -1.7 -1.9 -2.2 6.5 7.4 10.0 1.4 1.6 2.6 10.0 0.5 3.1 2.1 2.8 3.1 6.3 8.4 0.8 3.8- 5.8- -2.8 6.7
8.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
8.0 5.3 1.3 0.8 0.7 5.7 8.2 2.3 2.1- 13.6 0.8 0.9 1.5 0.7 2.1 -0.6 -4.7 0.0 10.0 1.0 11.3- 18.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 8.7 -0.8 2.2 -0.1 7.1 1.9 2.3 4.0 1.7 -0.2 0.1
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 3.6 7.2 2.0 0.1 3.0 3.8 6.0 3.2 24.2 23.2 25.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 7.2 6.5 3.5 21.3 19.7 21.2 9.4 2.3 Other
0.1 2.6 6.0 9.9 11.1 10.6 5.6 3.1 8.0 0.1 1.6- 1.2 2.3 8.9 1.5 -26.3 -21.8 -25.9 4.5 4.7 0.5 117.4 116.9 108.9 8.2 3.0 5.5 93.9 99.1 98.0 5.9 1.5 1.7 3.8- 1.5- 0.4 0.8 1.0 8.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.2 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.2 2.41.0 5.2 12.1 7.9 8.1 5.8 -5.4 6.67.8 9.4 12.0 22.5 40.6 8.7 -0.8 9.10.1 7.6 1.2 2.6 2.1 3.5 -0.2 0.77.9 4.9 -4.1 -7.2 -7.1 9.5 0.4 1.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth1.17 2 97.3 75.2 55 59
-56 1.2 2.6 67 12-3 16.8 13.9 52 53-6 11.5 13.7 49 35
-74 -0.8 1.1 89 11-2 4.8 7.6 36 18
7.65 1.2 GDP by Activity %-5.4 2 62.4 67.3 44 12
Med -3.3 9 14.2 13.6 40 6531 25.4 20.7 38 94-43 0.4 0.5 81 47-18 -2.4 -4.1 66 59
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 4 6.6 7.1 36 47
2.1 -0.2 -5 33.5 28.1 71 76Med 4.1 1 60.0 62.2 56 29
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)6.47 2 38.2 24.5 62 75
3 36.9 50.0 27 184 33.8 41.8 26 350 10.6 7.4 70 60
6.81.4 Openness (% GDP)
-18 21.2 24.5 41 29Rank % -8 23.5 29.2 28 35
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -16 44.7 56.1 33 291.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
19 3.7 4.1 4.1 47 Exports (2016)-1 5.7 5.8 6.3 32 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 34.0 0.0 0 32.0 31.0 37.0 30 #2 Partner Russia 6.8 0.0 -3 5.8 5.7 5.8 46 #3 Partner Peru 6.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts6 4.0 4.7 5.7 28
1.3 Infrastructure44 3.5 4.6 4.0 7611 6.4 6.9 6.9 49
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-4 7.4 7.6 8.3 47 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM5 15.1 43.0 44.4 45 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
18 0.2 0.5 0.8 41 0 16.8 18.9 1.4 16.0 511.5 Health 0 64.2 67.0 0.4 57.9 59
2 75.1 76.5 73.6 81 16 64.5 65.0 0.1 65.6 553 21.1 19.1 14.5 59 -4 11.0 14.7 3.3 9.6 55
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -1 25.0 37.5 5.0 23.0 52
-0.8
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 53
2017-27
59
2017
-0.2 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
5629
296547
8.144.40.5
14.3
49
22
31
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
38
51
40
35385622
56
4.16.3
36.0
81
6.15.4
3.77.0
27
33
30
9447
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
-0.2
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
579
External
108.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
2.1
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-5.4
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.4-2.30.4
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-0.8
1.2
REER108.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 2.1
49703747
65
64
Region
49
Real Rate
431334
63.7
-1.3
30.4
3960
51
Life expectancy (yrs) 79 7574.0
46
40
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
17
58.7
56.447.4
22Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
57
313170Remittances2
Imports G&S 2036.6
6.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.9
3.2
7.7
2018f1.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
103
Guatemala
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.8 1.9 6.2 -0.2 1.5 0.9 0.8 2.7 8.1 1.4- 1.1- -1.6 2.4 2.7 8.2 -8.7 -7.5 -9.3 2.5 3.6 6.7 10.8 11.0 10.8 9.1 3.4 6.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 6.9 3.4 8.2 12.3 12.1 12.5 0.8 5.0 2.4 -2.2 -2.2 -1.9 0.6 8.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 3.2 0.4 11.3 11.6 12.7 1.7 2.3 8.5 0.0- 0.4 -0.2 2.6
2.4 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
7.3 5.2 1.7 1.6 1.5 9.3 1.5 9.8 9.9 4.6 11.5 7.3 5.2 4.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 4.6 1.3 6.1 10.7 7.5 8.0 1.8 1.9 6.4 1.6 3.0 2.4 1.0 7.1 5.3 2.4 4.4 4.7 4.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
2.9 0.4 21.4 22.0 23.6 0.2 5.0 3.3 4.3 4.3 4.7 6.9 9.1 4.4 21.2 19.5 19.7 9.8 2.3 Other
4.8 0.1 1.1 29.4 32.6 34.8 0.0 2.7 5.1 4.1 3.1 3.1 3.8 6.3 1.3 -21.5 -20.9 -22.9 0.6 6.6 9.3 105.4 106.8 111.6 10.0 2.6 9.7 106.2 109.7 99.5 5.3 7.7 4.7 1.9 0.2- 0.0 5.7 1.4 6.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
10.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.1 5.00.5 6.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 7.6 -1.6 2.05.2 4.9 9.2 9.9 9.6 1.8 0.9 1.50.2 5.3 4.8 5.8 5.8 0.2 4.7 4.14.4 6.8 -2.0 -1.8 -2.4 9.3 0.0 5.9
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6.47 8 76.6 75.2 45 53
5 3.1 2.6 34 65-1 16.9 13.9 51 59-2 8.0 13.7 34 12
1.10 2.8 7.6 9 0
1.77 1.2 GDP by Activity %-1.6 0 85.5 67.3 95 94
Med -3.3 -6 9.8 13.6 18 0-12 12.5 20.7 17 036 0.5 0.5 4 5310 -8.3 -4.1 18 24
1.3 GDP by Sector %7.05 3 13.3 7.1 62 88 5.8 4.7 -6 23.6 28.1 27 24
Med 4.1 -5 63.1 62.2 74 531.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
8.23 -33 16.4 24.5 61 19-10 45.5 50.0 49 41-8 36.7 41.8 41 410 34.8 7.4 93 93
-30 4.2 6.8 56 141.4 Openness (% GDP)
-3 19.7 24.5 21 24Rank % -17 28.0 29.2 45 47
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -5 47.7 56.1 28 411.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-2 4.0 4.1 4.1 44 Exports (2016)-2 6.2 6.3 6.3 49 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 34.9 0.0 -19 33.0 28.0 37.0 15 #2 Partner Canada 5.7 0.0 -12 4.6 3.5 5.8 8 #3 Partner Mexico 4.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-6 3.3 3.3 5.7 4
1.3 Infrastructure-18 4.8 4.0 4.0 530 8.9 8.9 6.9 92
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-3 3.8 4.1 8.3 7 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
-11 16.3 23.4 44.4 31 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-35 0.5 0.1 0.8 12 2 16.9 20.2 2.0 16.0 54
1.5 Health 3 52.5 57.2 0.9 57.9 383 70.3 72.0 73.6 44 17 60.3 63.7 0.6 65.6 38-3 28.6 25.8 14.5 65 -9 7.8 9.0 1.5 9.6 31
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -5 13.4 18.7 3.9 23.0 26
0.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 31
2017-27
35
2017
0.7 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
5065
666
8.144.40.5
14.3
20
11
72
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
92
10
42
06
1948
68
4.16.3
36.0
94
6.15.4
3.77.0
47
51
34
69100
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.7
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
5340
External
111.6
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
5.8
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1.6
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.50.74.0
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
0.9
3.1
REER111.6
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 5.8
114
4028
21
27
Region
50
Real Rate
32
9
63.7
-1.3
30.4
2040
52
Life expectancy (yrs) 41 674.0
95
65
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
23
58.7
56.447.4
18Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
68
39339325
Remittances2
Imports G&S 2736.6
4.2
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.3
4.4
5.4
2018f3.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
104
Honduras
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
7.4 3.8 5.0 -5.5 -4.0 -4.0 1.4 4.5 5.9 3.0- 2.8- -3.2 2.3 4.0 4.8 -14.1 -12.7 -12.5 1.3 2.2 6.7 19.3 20.2 19.7 1.2 3.4 5.8 -3.3 -2.9 -3.1 7.7 6.8 4.7 22.3 23.0 22.9 6.1 6.8 3.8 -6.7 -7.1 -6.9 7.6 4.8 4.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 8.9 4.5 5.6 18.5 18.7 18.5 6.3 4.6 6.0 0.4- 0.1- -0.6 1.1
2.3 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
8.5 2.6 5.4 3.7 4.8 7.0 7.1 3.9 7.7 12.4 10.3 3.5 4.5 5.3 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 3.4 5.9 3.8 10.7 12.5 10.3 5.8 5.1 3.9 -0.2 -0.3 0.8 1.3 4.4 7.1 3.2 2.7 4.3 2.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
5.2 2.2 13.4 13.3 14.1 0.6 4.9 6.0 6.4 6.4 6.0 7.6 7.5 2.6 46.0 42.7 45.9 6.7 2.3 Other
2.6 1.9 8.2 27.3 28.9 27.1 3.0 5.0 6.2 3.6 3.6 4.6 7.4 5.8 3.0 -14.5 -14.2 -15.0 1.2 1.2 3.5 111.1 108.7 107.6 8.4 4.3 2.8 102.3 103.7 108.1 1.1 4.0 8.6 3.2 3.7 1.7 3.7 3.0 7.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.7 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.6 5.97.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 -3.2 2.53.5 4.2 13.1 11.4 10.6 1.1 -4.0 2.13.1 1.6 4.1 4.3 4.8 0.0 4.3 1.94.1 9.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.6 9.7 1.7 4.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth9.41 -1 21.9 75.2 21 12
25 4.6 2.6 43 940 9.3 13.9 38 35-6 5.0 13.7 27 0
1.110 3.8 7.6 10 6
4.71 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.2 1 78.7 67.3 86 76
Med -3.3 -24 14.6 13.6 75 71-32 22.9 20.7 89 82-8 1.2 0.5 67 875 -17.4 -4.1 3 0
1.3 GDP by Sector %6.47 3 13.7 7.1 63 94 4.8 4.3 -1 28.0 28.1 36 47
Med 4.1 -15 58.3 62.2 65 241.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
5.88 2 19.3 24.5 30 25-3 0.1 50.0 7 0-1 0.0 41.8 2 0-4 27.1 7.4 92 801 5.2 6.8 36 29
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-1 45.9 24.5 67 94
Rank % -14 63.2 29.2 95 100∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -12 109.1 56.1 88 1001.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-3 3.9 4.0 4.1 34 Exports (2016)-1 6.0 5.9 6.3 38 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 55.5 0.0 3 28.0 30.0 37.0 23 #2 Partner Mexico 5.4 0.0 6 3.8 4.6 5.8 18 #3 Partner Germany 4.7 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
16 3.0 4.3 5.7 231.3 Infrastructure
-7 3.8 3.7 4.0 39-29 7.1 5.4 6.9 21
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 6.1 6.5 8.3 30 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-7 13.4 19.1 44.4 30 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 0.0 0.0 0.8 0 5 9.3 10.7 1.6 16.0 43
1.5 Health -2 55.9 61.2 0.9 57.9 47-2 72.2 73.8 73.6 51 42 63.7 67.0 0.5 65.6 74-2 25.7 18.9 14.5 57 -1 7.3 9.3 2.7 9.6 33
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -3 14.7 23.3 5.8 23.0 33
-4
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 36
2017-27
49
2017
2.6 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
3841
121835
8.144.40.5
14.3
12
7
46
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
51
32
37
6000
59
4.16.3
36.0
75
6.15.4
3.77.0
37
39
20
5012
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.3
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
2069
External
107.6
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
4.8
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.6Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.2
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.3-4.23.4
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-4
4.6
REER107.6
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 4.8
5055598
35
33
Region
38
Real Rate
21
21
63.7
-1.3
30.4
3134
37
Life expectancy (yrs) 53 3874.0
88
66
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
75
58.7
56.447.4
66Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
49
41
8838
Remittances2
Imports G&S 8036.6
3.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum3.7
5.2
5.2
2018f3.6
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
105
Jamaica
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
8.5 3.5 5.8 -3.0 -0.9 -1.9 0.8 3.8 4.7 0.3- 0.5 0.7 1.0 4.3 5.8 -22.4 -21.6 -22.4 1.1 0.9 2.8 27.1 28.5 29.0 0.1 1.7 6.4 6.3 7.7 7.2 0.7 5.8 5.5 27.4 27.9 28.3 2.4 8.5 1.7 -3.1 -4.3 -3.1 3.6 5.6 4.3 7.5 7.9 7.4 1.7 0.8 8.8 16.2 17.3 16.4 1.7 1.7 5.8 7.2 8.5 8.2 0.9
1.0 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
6.8 7.0 6.5 5.2 3.6 6.4 8.9 5.6 2.0 14.4 16.0 8.3 0.0 4.6 9.0 -4.7 -5.4 1.4 3.1 3.2 14.2 10.4 6.8 2.3 4.4 7.2 3.4 4.2 1.7 0.9 4.2 6.5 3.7 2.3 4.9 2.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
4.1 3.1 7.2 7.4 7.7 1.9 6.3 7.4 7.7 6.4 4.2 9.3 5.6 4.7 29.8 29.4 29.6 7.8 2.3 Other
2.0 8.8 6.8 32.9 31.2 30.4 4.4 6.1 5.2 0.9 1.4 1.5 8.5 5.3 3.6 -7.6 -7.5 -8.0 6.8 2.2 2.9 105.8 101.8 98.9 3.9 2.2 6.4 113.7 125.1 119.6 0.8 4.9 7.5 4.0 4.1 -0.7 6.5 5.1 5.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.9 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 1.5 8.23.1 4.5 2.9 2.6 2.6 1.2 0.7 1.94.5 5.4 51.2 48.3 50.5 2.9 -1.9 1.81.8 5.6 5.3 6.2 6.1 0.3 4.9 2.41.2 5.5 -2.9 -0.4 -0.7 4.5 -0.7 7.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth2.35 -7 14.3 75.2 20 6
10 1.5 2.6 3 24-1 2.9 13.9 14 6-9 9.0 13.7 47 24
1.10 12.0 7.6 86 82
0 1.2 GDP by Activity %0.7 -2 81.6 67.3 94 88
Med -3.3 -25 13.6 13.6 69 53-12 21.1 20.7 51 53-5 0.1 0.5 20 134 -16.4 -4.1 5 6
1.3 GDP by Sector %7.64 12 7.5 7.1 31 53 6.1 4.9 -9 21.1 28.1 23 18
Med 4.1 -2 71.4 62.2 94 821.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
2.35 -7 78.8 24.5 93 94-10 59.8 50.0 64 657 63.2 41.8 59 762 30.4 7.4 88 875 33.3 6.8 94 100
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-13 29.6 24.5 56 71
Rank % -23 46.1 29.2 86 82∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -19 75.7 56.1 71 711.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
3 3.9 4.0 4.1 36 Exports (2016)-1 6.5 6.8 6.3 62 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 12.7 0.0 1 38.0 39.0 37.0 56 #2 Partner Canada 6.8 0.0 -9 5.7 5.4 5.8 33 #3 Partner Netherlands 5.1 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts8 5.3 5.8 5.7 57
1.3 Infrastructure-10 4.4 4.0 4.0 511 6.5 6.8 6.9 43
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 9.3 9.6 8.3 69 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
-40 58.2 40.5 44.4 42 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-15 0.7 0.4 0.8 38 -1 2.9 2.9 0.2 16.0 13
1.5 Health -2 55.3 58.4 0.6 57.9 41-1 71.8 73.5 73.6 49 -5 67.6 65.9 -0.2 65.6 66
-14 26.0 14.3 14.5 48 0 14.3 19.2 3.4 9.6 67Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -1 42.6 59.3 3.9 23.0 68
-1.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 69
2017-27
44
2017
-0.5 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
4476
764765
8.144.40.5
14.3
42
48
61
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
42
72
83
94314453
62
4.16.3
36.0
50
6.15.4
3.77.0
33
63
55
6329
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.9
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
1314
External
98.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
6.1
DomesticLow Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
1.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
0.7
High
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
0.2-3.14.7
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-1.9
1.5
REER98.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 6.1
4339159
14
87
Region
13
Real Rate
38
85
63.7
-1.3
30.4
7167
14
Life expectancy (yrs) 50 3174.0
92
44
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
51
58.7
56.447.4
43Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
92
546690
100Remittances2
Imports G&S 6336.6
4.8
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.7
5.8
6.0
2018f1.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
106
Mexico
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
5.0 2.9 2.4 -2.5 -2.1 -1.7 6.1 1.1 2.3 3.4- 2.5- -1.9 4.1 4.8 2.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.8 6.3 0.6 0.4 23.0 24.1 25.5 0.0 5.0 4.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 1.3 6.3 8.3 26.4 26.6 27.4 9.6 5.9 5.4 -2.4 -2.6 -2.6 8.8 7.8 10.0 2.2 2.4 2.9 10.0 0.2 4.4 2.1 2.5 2.5 0.8 0.5 0.7 1.2- 0.1- 1.0 1.5
4.1 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.2 5.8 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.1 8.7 0.4 12.9 18.9 9.2 5.0 6.6 4.0 0.6 1.5 1.0 7.7 7.4 3.0 7.2 10.6 8.0 2.7 1.5 4.2 -0.4 0.5 0.7 2.4 5.5 10.0 2.7 2.8 6.6 10.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 9.9 7.8 0.4 5.4 7.5 9.5 5.3 1.6 437.2 434.3 473.8 0.7 4.7 0.0 2.7 2.8 7.7 1.1 0.2 3.9 34.6 37.1 37.5 0.2 2.3 Other
10.0 1.9 6.1 5.7 6.2 6.0 5.9 4.7 4.2 3.3 2.9 2.1 5.0 5.8 1.9 -466.0 -457.3 -493.6 0.8 0.6 7.5 91.9 79.0 85.0 0.5 7.8 4.1 86.6 81.3 82.9 9.7 5.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 5.1 9.6 2.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 9.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
0.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.1 5.02.3 8.6 4.0 3.8 4.1 2.7 -1.9 4.40.8 6.6 39.2 30.3 33.2 3.4 -1.7 8.34.1 8.7 5.0 5.1 4.6 5.1 6.6 4.02.6 9.5 -8.9 8.9 -37.5 7.5 1.0 1.2
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth4.11 -1 1143.0 75.2 96 94
13 2.1 2.6 10 410 129.2 13.9 92 94-1 18.8 13.7 66 76-2 0.9 1.1 25 442 3.8 7.6 19 6
2.36 1.2 GDP by Activity %-1.9 -5 65.0 67.3 58 29
Med -3.3 0 12.4 13.6 31 355 22.2 20.7 45 716 0.5 0.5 34 53-3 -0.1 -4.1 60 71
1.3 GDP by Sector %8.82 4 3.6 7.1 17 12 4.6 6.6 -14 30.8 28.1 66 59
Med 4.1 8 65.6 62.2 71 711.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
0.58 10 24.2 24.5 35 44-3 41.2 50.0 38 29-3 62.4 41.8 68 71-5 6.0 7.4 65 47
6.81.4 Openness (% GDP)
21 37.5 24.5 29 76Rank % 21 38.2 29.2 24 65
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 27 75.7 56.1 23 711.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
3 4.2 4.3 4.1 64 Exports (2016)-4 6.9 7.2 6.3 74 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 73.4 0.0 -12 34.0 30.0 37.0 23 #2 Partner Canada 6.6 0.0 18 6.3 6.7 5.8 77 #3 Partner China 2.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts2 5.7 6.0 5.7 60
1.3 Infrastructure9 3.9 4.1 4.0 58
17 6.0 6.8 6.9 461.4 Human Capital and Innovation
0 8.1 8.5 8.3 53 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM3 25.9 44.4 44.4 50 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 1.6 1.9 0.8 69 1 129.2 143.8 1.1 16.0 93
1.5 Health 0 79.8 82.2 0.3 57.9 8311 75.1 77.4 73.6 89 14 66.5 67.6 0.2 65.6 78-5 15.3 12.5 14.5 38 -2 10.3 13.8 3.3 9.6 52
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 25.7 40.3 5.7 23.0 55
-1.7
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 55
2017-27
83
2017
3.8 5.1
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
88100
129471
8.144.40.5
14.3
59
58
49
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
28
53
47
53508169
42
4.16.3
36.0
25
6.15.4
3.77.0
60
78
36
8141
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
6.6
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
9524
External
85
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
4.6
DomesticModerate Moderate
Undervalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1.9
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-2.2-2.23.9
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-1.7
2.1
REER85
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 4.6
31504057
52
45
Region
92
Real Rate
652421
63.7
-1.3
30.4
6354
91
Life expectancy (yrs) 78 8874.0
53
21
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
51
58.7
56.447.4
51Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
79
356560Remittances2
Imports G&S 4636.6
0.3
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.0
6.4
7.9
2018f2.1
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
107
Panama
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.0 3.3 4.6 -8.2 -5.7 -5.2 1.5 2.5 4.2 2.0- 0.9- -0.7 4.1 3.4 4.5 -12.6 -10.6 -10.0 0.7 3.1 4.2 20.5 21.0 21.2 8.2 3.4 7.1 13.5 14.2 13.5 2.1 5.5 5.6 22.8 23.0 23.1 1.4 5.4 3.2 -8.9 -9.1 -8.4 8.2 3.7 6.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 5.4 5.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 8.3 4.1 4.7 0.7- 0.4- -0.3 7.0
4.1 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
2.8 6.5 7.6 9.1 8.4 4.1 4.4 4.9 11.2 8.0 7.5 3.4 9.7 0.1 -2.1 2.8 -3.0 3.3 5.2 6.3 4.4 5.4 12.2 5.7 2.2 5.2 -0.6 3.4 3.2 0.9 5.8 4.9 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.9 5.7- 0.8-
6.0 2.9 30.5 29.8 31.4 2.2 9.0 9.7 5.7 5.5 5.3 9.9 6.1 6.1 52.2 50.8 49.5 9.6 2.3 Other
1.0 6.1 5.3 1.8 1.7 1.7 5.4 4.1 5.7 5.8 4.9 5.6 3.0 6.8 3.5 -34.8 -32.9 -34.5 2.8 7.1 0.0 110.9 112.7 105.5 7.9 2.6 7.3 108.1 113.3 108.4 1.4 6.1 5.2 5.6 4.8 4.6 1.6 3.6 4.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
7.9 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 5.6 3.33.1 7.6 10.7 9.8 11.0 8.6 -0.7 2.12.3 6.0 1297.1 1116.4 1177.0 6.7 -5.2 2.02.3 6.6 2.4 2.9 2.6 4.0 0.6 2.22.5 6.6 -10.8 -0.1 -7.0 5.0 4.6 3.9
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth10 13 59.0 75.2 34 35
-5 5.6 2.6 85 1001 4.1 13.9 19 18
10 24.4 13.7 64 941.1
1 5.0 7.6 39 240.59 1.2 GDP by Activity %
-0.7 -24 48.2 67.3 36 0Med -3.3 -24 10.1 13.6 39 6
18 42.8 20.7 79 100-8 3.2 0.5 100 1006 -4.3 -4.1 31 41
1.3 GDP by Sector %0.58 -16 2.3 7.1 28 6 2.6 0.6 4 15.2 28.1 0 6
Med 4.1 -1 77.7 62.2 99 941.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
4.7 1 148.5 24.5 98 100-2 84.5 50.0 80 88
-11 72.5 41.8 88 94-9 1.7 7.4 40 2718 10.4 6.8 44 71
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-14 49.5 24.5 90 100
Rank % -24 53.7 29.2 96 94∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -21 103.2 56.1 95 941.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-2 4.3 4.4 4.1 70 Exports (2016)-6 6.6 6.6 6.3 59 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Ecuador 15.1 0.0 -2 38.0 38.0 37.0 53 #2 Partner United States 7.0 0.0
-29 5.9 4.8 5.8 21 #3 Partner Japan 6.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts14 5.0 5.7 5.7 50
1.3 Infrastructure20 4.3 4.8 4.0 800 8.6 8.7 6.9 90
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 9.2 9.4 8.3 66 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM0 27.8 44.9 44.4 51 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
24 0.4 1.9 0.8 68 1 4.1 4.7 1.5 16.0 211.5 Health 3 67.2 70.3 0.5 57.9 65
7 75.7 77.6 73.6 90 11 64.7 64.9 0.0 65.6 541 19.3 15.4 14.5 52 -3 12.2 16.0 3.1 9.6 61
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -1 28.9 42.1 4.6 23.0 59
-5.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 60
2017-27
62
2017
4.0 5.1
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
9471
712459
8.144.40.5
14.3
51
36
59
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
90
67
51
88567543
51
4.16.3
36.0
63
6.15.4
3.77.0
72
65
55
10094
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
0.6
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
4880
External
105.5
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
2.6
DomesticModerate Low
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
5.6Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.7
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-0.7-5.41.3
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-5.2
5.6
REER105.5
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 2.6
14989138
4
99
Region
20
Real Rate
74
40
63.7
-1.3
30.4
4364
20
Life expectancy (yrs) 82 9474.0
11
11
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
73
58.7
56.447.4
75Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
98
78773163
Remittances2
Imports G&S 7136.6
6.2
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.8
5.0
5.1
2018f5.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
108
Paraguay
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
4.1 1.3 8.7 -1.6 1.7 -1.5 8.7 3.2 4.7 2.1- 1.5- -1.4 7.7 1.1 8.4 1.8 4.5 2.1 8.6 4.6 7.1 18.1 18.2 17.6 5.1 3.6 5.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 6.6 4.0 3.8 20.2 19.7 19.1 7.0 5.0 6.4 -5.3 -5.3 -5.7 3.3 7.9 9.9 0.6 0.7 1.0 10.0 2.5 7.8 2.4 2.8 2.4 7.4 2.8 3.7 1.5- 0.8- -0.4 6.1
7.7 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.3 4.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 5.6 1.1 5.3 23.8 0.9 2.2 0.5 6.8 5.7 5.8 10.7 11.9 2.5
1.0 8.9 -0.7 2.8 -0.3 8.9 6.1 4.9 3.1 4.1 4.0 3.1 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.6 4.1 1.9 5.0 3.3 3.6
4.2 4.0 12.3 12.7 13.2 3.2 5.6 6.1 6.7 6.1 5.3 5.7 7.9 4.1 46.3 44.8 45.2 9.4 2.3 Other
3.1 5.1 5.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 2.1 5.4 4.9 3.0 4.0 3.8 4.1 6.2 2.3 -12.8 -12.3 -13.7 2.4 3.6 5.2 107.8 105.6 105.9 7.8 3.3 8.3 96.8 98.7 95.5 9.3 6.0 5.5 3.6 2.0 1.3 4.1 3.4 5.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
7.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.8 4.61.3 6.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 5.2 -1.4 7.32.5 5.7 80.4 65.7 68.1 1.3 -1.5 9.21.2 5.7 6.3 7.7 7.5 0.4 4.0 4.23.0 5.9 -0.7 -0.1 -0.4 3.9 1.3 5.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth7.64 0 30.3 75.2 28 24
-16 3.8 2.6 68 761 6.8 13.9 27 294 10.0 13.7 35 29
1.122 7.0 7.6 33 41
1.18 1.2 GDP by Activity %-1.4 -9 66.3 67.3 66 41
Med -3.3 3 11.6 13.6 17 188 17.5 20.7 8 359 0.3 0.5 22 40-1 4.3 -4.1 77 100
1.3 GDP by Sector %4.7 -1 17.9 7.1 82 100
7.5 4 -12 26.4 28.1 44 41Med 4.1 14 55.7 62.2 24 6
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)5.29 -23 33.1 24.5 86 69
3 41.9 50.0 33 356 32.4 41.8 23 295 4.4 7.4 49 33
6.81.4 Openness (% GDP)
-5 45.2 24.5 70 88Rank % -7 40.9 29.2 58 76
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -9 86.1 56.1 70 821.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-2 3.5 3.6 4.1 11 Exports (2016)-12 6.2 5.9 6.3 37 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner Brazil 20.0 0.0 12 25.0 30.0 37.0 23 #2 Partner Argentina 10.8 0.0 8 5.8 6.0 5.8 57 #3 Partner Russia 10.0 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
-39 5.7 4.2 5.7 171.3 Infrastructure
-4 2.4 2.5 4.0 3-38 8.1 6.7 6.9 42
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation2 7.2 7.7 8.3 50 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM4 15.8 43.0 44.4 45 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-23 0.8 0.4 0.8 36 2 6.8 7.6 1.2 16.0 321.5 Health 0 60.2 63.2 0.5 57.9 53
-6 71.9 72.3 73.6 45 23 64.2 65.2 0.2 65.6 59-2 24.0 18.7 14.5 56 -2 9.9 12.5 2.6 9.6 49
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -3 21.7 30.7 4.1 23.0 46
-1.5
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 49
2017-27
53
2017
1.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
635
127124
8.144.40.5
14.3
48
58
8
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
82
48
41
47383860
58
4.16.3
36.0
69
6.15.4
3.77.0
13
49
11
024
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
2851
External
105.9
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
7.5
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.8Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-1.4
Moderate
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-1.5-2.14.3
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-1.5
3.8
REER105.9
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 7.5
20173276
32
62
Region
28
Real Rate
40
56
63.7
-1.3
30.4
3551
30
Life expectancy (yrs) 51 1374.0
56
81
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
60
58.7
56.447.4
65Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
39
362954Remittances2
Imports G&S 5136.6
5.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.2
5.4
5.9
2018f4.3
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
109
Peru
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.4 2.0 3.3 -4.8 -2.7 -1.6 2.8 6.2 5.3 2.1- 2.6- -2.7 9.5 1.5 3.6 -1.5 1.0 1.9 6.2 9.0 3.1 29.0 26.8 27.7 9.6 4.5 2.1 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 0.2 0.3 8.2 31.1 29.4 30.4 4.3 9.1 5.0 -3.9 -4.7 -4.7 1.2 5.7 5.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 2.5 1.0 6.9 1.7 2.0 1.9 7.1 6.1 5.2 1.0- 1.5- -1.6 9.4
9.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
7.0 6.7 4.2 3.4 2.7 9.5 1.9 6.3 18.5 5.0 9.6 2.6 7.4 2.8 -1.4 1.1 -0.9 3.7 8.3 4.7 1.2 12.8 11.8 4.2 3.4 4.4 -0.5 0.6 1.1 6.2 5.1 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.0 4.2
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 4.8 4.7 1.8 1.6 1.2 3.2 2.8 1.0 45.0 48.4 55.7 1.1 6.4 5.3 3.8 3.4 3.3 7.8 3.2 3.0 21.2 22.2 23.3 7.9 2.3 Other
4.2 7.0 8.6 6.1 5.7 5.1 8.3 5.8 3.7 3.3 4.0 2.7 1.4 5.3 2.3 -54.2 -53.7 -59.0 2.2 8.3 1.8 99.3 103.1 99.5 4.5 5.3 4.3 93.2 92.5 93.9 7.6 5.9 4.1 0.3 0.2- 0.3 6.4 3.2 4.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.1 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
4.5 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 2.7 3.67.1 9.7 1.3 1.4 1.6 10.0 -2.7 9.37.1 6.0 11.5 12.6 13.0 4.0 -1.6 1.73.4 7.6 16.2 17.1 15.6 3.4 3.0 0.74.3 4.1 -6.2 -5.3 -4.2 8.2 0.3 3.7
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth5.29 7 215.6 75.2 64 65
-58 2.7 2.6 90 53-2 31.9 13.9 70 764 12.1 13.7 43 41
-56 1.4 1.1 91 67-12 7.6 7.6 76 47
4.12 1.2 GDP by Activity %-2.7 7 65.2 67.3 48 35
Med -3.3 -7 11.7 13.6 28 24-9 21.5 20.7 50 59
-54 0.2 0.5 79 201 1.4 -4.1 67 88
1.3 GDP by Sector %4.11 0 7.5 7.1 44 53 15.6 3 -4 36.0 28.1 80 88
Med 4.1 2 56.5 62.2 44 181.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
2.94 -9 4.5 24.5 26 0-5 27.6 50.0 25 6-6 45.2 41.8 52 53-3 5.1 7.4 61 4010 6.8 6.8 33 43
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-3 23.3 24.5 30 41
Rank % -1 22.0 29.2 17 29∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -3 45.3 56.1 21 351.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
1 4.1 4.2 4.1 53 Exports (2016)-17 7.2 7.0 6.3 70 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 25.3 0.0 -12 38.0 35.0 37.0 43 #2 Partner United States 16.8 0.0 18 5.7 6.1 5.8 63 #3 Partner Switzerland 6.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts-30 7.0 6.0 5.7 60
1.3 Infrastructure-16 3.6 3.2 4.0 19-10 8.0 7.9 6.9 70
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-1 8.4 8.7 8.3 57 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-9 27.7 40.2 44.4 41 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20273 0.2 0.3 0.8 33 -1 31.9 35.8 1.1 16.0 66
1.5 Health -1 79.2 81.9 0.3 57.9 815 73.3 74.8 73.6 68 21 65.5 66.3 0.1 65.6 69
-16 21.9 12.9 14.5 40 -4 10.9 14.1 2.9 9.6 53Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -5 26.1 38.3 4.7 23.0 53
-1.6
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 59
2017-27
82
2017
1.5 5.1
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
7588
477671
8.144.40.5
14.3
45
90
36
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
79
58
50
65253130
57
4.16.3
36.0
31
6.15.4
3.77.0
52
87
55
2576
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
3
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
7130
External
99.5
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
15.6
DomesticModerate Moderate
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
2.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-2.7
Low
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.1-1.61.8
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-1.6
2.7
REER99.5
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 15.6
21412368
76
17
Region
68
Real Rate
473363
63.7
-1.3
30.4
4857
67
Life expectancy (yrs) 63 6374.0
55
44
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
18
58.7
56.447.4
27Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
46
20455844
Remittances2
Imports G&S 1636.6
1.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.3
5.9
5.0
2018f4.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
110
Uruguay
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
2.8 1.5 5.3 -0.7 1.7 1.5 0.3 6.9 3.0 3.6- 4.0- -3.6 8.9 2.0 3.4 2.5 4.5 5.4 0.4 3.1 4.6 28.8 29.3 29.4 1.4 2.3 6.5 0.8 1.6 1.2 6.8 8.9 3.0 32.3 33.3 32.9 9.2 6.0 6.5 -4.4 -4.8 -5.4 7.7 2.7 4.8 3.6 3.3 3.3 8.2 3.3 8.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 7.1 7.4 3.5 0.0- 0.7- -0.3 8.3
8.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.8 0.1 1.6 -1.5 2.1 8.2 4.3 4.9 11.8 5.0 4.0 2.8 8.9 3.9 -4.0 -1.4 -2.1 4.5 7.2 5.9 9.0 14.4 16.5 4.7 6.6 0.2 0.8 0.2 3.6 1.3 8.9 0.0 8.7 9.6 6.1 0.0
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 3.3 4.1 6.8 3.4 1.7 0.8 6.1 1.6 16.6 15.9 18.3 1.8 1.9 9.9 11.8 13.6 8.8 5.5 8.2 2.0 22.5 21.4 22.4 8.8 2.3 Other
0.0 2.0 6.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 4.5 6.8 7.8 0.4 1.5 3.1 2.8 7.4 2.3 -17.0 -15.0 -17.4 3.3 8.4 5.6 105.0 110.4 111.3 8.8 5.4 7.2 92.5 91.7 87.4 9.8 3.3 7.3 3.1 4.0 2.7 2.1 2.3 5.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 3.1 3.18.1 6.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 7.0 -3.6 7.45.0 4.6 7.4 7.4 6.9 1.9 1.5 1.44.5 5.6 13.5 13.8 13.5 1.0 6.1 1.24.2 2.3 -3.4 -2.8 -0.8 3.5 2.7 4.5
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth6.47 7 60.0 75.2 42 41
-33 3.1 2.6 74 650 3.4 13.9 17 124 22.7 13.7 68 88
1.16 8.1 7.6 60 59
6.48 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.6 -5 66.7 67.3 63 47
Med -3.3 2 13.9 13.6 43 59-13 17.5 20.7 30 35-60 -0.2 0.5 69 723 2.1 -4.1 47 94
1.3 GDP by Sector %8.23 -9 6.3 7.1 49 41 13.5 6.1 7 25.1 28.1 17 35
Med 4.1 -4 68.7 62.2 91 761.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
7.64 -9 21.9 24.5 49 31-18 33.6 50.0 45 121 17.1 41.8 11 12
-10 0.9 7.4 33 136.8 69
1.4 Openness (% GDP)-10 22.4 24.5 36 35
Rank % -21 20.2 29.2 31 24∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -14 42.6 56.1 30 241.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown-11 4.2 4.1 4.1 50 Exports (2016)-10 6.3 6.2 6.3 48 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner China 21.2 0.0 2 72.0 71.0 37.0 97 #2 Partner Brazil 15.1 0.0 -2 5.5 5.4 5.8 37 #3 Partner Netherlands 7.7 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
-10 5.0 4.5 5.7 261.3 Infrastructure-25 4.5 3.7 4.0 40-7 8.4 8.2 6.9 79
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation0 8.1 8.5 8.3 53 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-7 55.2 61.5 44.4 73 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 2.6 3.3 0.8 74 1 3.4 3.6 0.3 16.0 18
1.5 Health 0 95.6 96.6 0.1 57.9 96-2 76.0 77.1 73.6 85 6 64.3 63.9 -0.1 65.6 43-5 11.7 9.5 14.5 27 -9 22.8 25.7 1.3 9.6 78
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -5 69.6 83.7 2.0 23.0 72
1.5
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 78
2017-27
96
2017
2.1 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
6959
1005341
8.144.40.5
14.3
39
36
66
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
87
53
80
53888873
32
4.16.3
36.0
6
6.15.4
3.77.0
61
59
95
5688
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
6.1
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
4940
External
111.3
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
13.5
DomesticModerate Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
3.1Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.6
Moderate
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.20.66.7
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
1.5
3.1
REER111.3
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 13.5
45177
71
24
39
Region
17
Real Rate
72
66
63.7
-1.3
30.4
3687
17
Life expectancy (yrs) 88 8174.0
57
39
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
16
58.7
56.447.4
26Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
86
261223Remittances2
Imports G&S 936.6
6.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum4.6
3.0
7.0
2018f2.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
111
Venezuela
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
0.3 2.9 5.0 -3.4 -0.7 -0.7 7.9 8.9 0.5 20.7- 24.3- -19.4 8.6 4.2 4.2 0.8 1.9 2.9 8.7 8.9 3.8 21.7 17.4 18.5 9.5 1.0 8.2 -2.6 -1.4 -2.1 0.7 4.3 1.4 42.4 41.7 37.9 4.9 2.7 7.8 -1.6 -1.2 -1.7 5.4 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.0
0.0 0.1 0.0 9.7 0.6 18.3- 23.1- -19.0 9.1 8.6 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.7 4.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.6 10.0 10.0 104.9 338.2 826.0 10.0 5.8 4.3 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 2.2 9.7 10.0 100.7 159.2 1457.4 10.0 3.2 5.0 -3.1 -0.7 -0.7 7.8 10.0 0.0 121.7 422.2 169.7 7.8
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 10.0 10.0 119.5 240.9 648.5 10.0 6.7 5.1 40.4 29.9 29.6 9.7 5.2 5.3 3.4 3.2 3.0 7.8 6.8 3.0 9.0 6.1 9.3 9.3 2.3 Other
7.8 0.5 4.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 5.9 5.6- 13.5- -12.5 0.3 9.4 5.3 -56.4 -33.8 -32.7 9.9 10.0 1.7 186.7 378.0 317.6 9.8 5.5 3.4 36.8 32.3 48.7 8.7 10.0 0.0 118.4- 419.0- -166.7 7.8 0.5 4.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) -12.5 0.88.3 10.0 17.9 19.7 29.2 10.0 -19.4 6.1
10.0 0.5 184.6 262.2 219.3 9.5 -0.7 8.42.6 7.6 4.2 5.1 4.5 7.4 169.7 10.08.8 4.3 24.0 9.7 12.0 1.5 -166.7 10.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 1 415.3 75.2 84 82
-46 -12.5 2.6 48 0-3 31.3 13.9 69 71
-26 12.9 13.7 77 47-51 -5.9 1.1 53 042 19.0 7.6 56 100
10 1.2 GDP by Activity %-19.4 46 69.2 67.3 19 65
Med -3.3 29 18.0 13.6 42 88-22 15.1 20.7 35 18-19 1.6 0.5 89 93-40 -3.9 -4.1 84 53
1.3 GDP by Sector %10 6 4.6 7.1 20 24
4.5 169.7 14 39.7 28.1 73 100Med 4.1 -25 55.7 62.2 64 6
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)10 10 22.4 24.5 33 38
38 80.9 50.0 35 7626 66.3 41.8 42 822 0.4 7.4 10 0
6.81.4 Openness (% GDP)
-34 9.3 24.5 38 0Rank % -3 13.1 29.2 5 6
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -15 22.4 56.1 16 01.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-9 3.5 3.3 4.1 3 Exports (2016)-1 3.9 3.3 6.3 0 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 37.2 0.0 -3 19.0 17.0 37.0 0 #2 Partner China 18.6 0.0
-32 6.2 4.9 5.8 24 #3 Partner India 17.4 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts0 2.3 3.2 5.7 2
1.3 Infrastructure-14 3.1 2.6 4.0 5-24 5.9 1.7 6.9 1
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation7 6.9 7.6 8.3 47 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM
11 30.9 57.0 44.4 69 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20277 0.1 0.3 0.8 27 31.3 16.0
1.5 Health 57.9-1 73.5 74.6 73.6 67 65.6-5 15.8 12.9 14.5 40 9.6
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 23.0
-0.7
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4
2017-27 2017
-2273.6 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
00
0290
8.144.40.5
14.3
57
2
19
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
26
40
58
35752520
44
4.16.3
36.0
31
6.15.4
3.77.0
12
1
3
60
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
169.7
Med 2.6
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
850
External
317.6
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
4.5
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityHigh
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
-12.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-19.4
Low
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-15.6-2.2
2276.6
Tourism2
Med 105.7
Med -1.8
Med 6
M2 Stock
-0.7
-12.5
REER317.6
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 4.5
72137043
87
43
Region
66
Real Rate
500
99
63.7
-1.3
30.4
Life expectancy (yrs) 68 5674.0
67
27
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
0
58.7
56.447.4
2Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
39
746912Remittances2
Imports G&S 236.6
10.0
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.5
1.5
6.4
2018f-11.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
112
S Asia
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1
2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum12015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)9.6 7.4 8.9 -1.0 -0.8 -3.6 10.0 7.4 6.2 3.9- 4.6- -5.0 5.9
7.4 6.2 -6.6 -7.5 -9.5 8.3 1.1 1.4 13.3 14.3 15.1 0.1 5.1 5.2 1.1 0.5 0.7 1.8 5.3 6.9 19.6 19.7 20.3 9.7 7.5 7.7 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 1.6 3.4 0.8 4.1 3.9 3.5 0.0 2.8 6.0 8.1 7.9 6.7 9.7 3.7 7.7 0.5- 0.1- -1.0 3.8
5.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.1 Price Indicators (%)
4.6 4.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 6.8 7.3 5.1 12.6 16.1 16.2 5.3 2.6 8.3 0.3 -0.1 0.5 5.1 9.4 2.7 13.1 15.5 14.4 1.4
9.6 10.0 0.7 -0.3 -2.7 10.0 5.1 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.0 0.5 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 7.5 6.1 2.5- 1.7 3.5 2.4
6.3 2.6 51.0 50.4 51.8 1.0 9.3 8.6 8.0 7.0 6.1 9.6
6.8 7.8 17.3 16.7 15.5 9.7 3. Other
0.5 CPI 6.7 9.8 30.0 29.2 25.3 7.1 7.4 8.9 4.8 5.5 6.7 9.6 2.4 0.7 -48.4 -50.6 -55.3 0.4 7.5 7.7 109.7 112.6 115.5 9.9 5.6 8.3 98.4 97.3 91.1 8.4 7.4 6.7 3.7 2.3 1.3 2.4
1.0 4.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 3. Forecasts 2017e Score9.9 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 6.7 2.6
9.5 5.0 4.1 5.0 5.0 9.2 -5.0 4.65.1 4.2 24.1 24.3 23.4 5.0 -3.6 9.9
2.8 6.0 7.2 8.0 7.7 0.5 5.0 2.11.5 3.3 -3.1 -1.2 -0.4 2.5 1.3 4.6
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank # of 8S Asia EM* Africa CIS E Asia CEMEA 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth-1 246.6 66.3 32.3 41.1 309.7 77.1 4-1 6.7 3.7 3.8 2.8 5.5 4.1 20 164.7 16.9 24.3 9.1 41.3 7.1 10 5.5 12.9 3.9 9.8 15.0 29.1 70 4.2 1.9 0.9 2.0 2.7 2.3 1-2 5.3 6.1 11.1 5.6 3.5 7.2 7
1.2 GDP by Activity %1 67.9 63.7 72.0 61.1 54.0 58.3 10 11.7 14.6 14.9 17.1 12.3 18.7 80 27.5 22.2 21.0 24.0 25.3 20.6 10 3.1 0.7 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.3 10 -6.5 -1.3 -8.5 0.1 1.5 2.7 7
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 16.7 8.3 18.0 11.4 9.6 3.4 2-3 28.7 30.4 26.2 32.3 35.8 30.3 80 56.3 58.7 54.3 54.4 53.2 66.2 4
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)2 12.9 25.3 24.9 66.2 18.2 39.5 60 62.2 56.4 28.0 35.5 136.4 69.2 51 55.8 47.4 40.4 28.8 129.7 59.4 40 25.3 3.9 4.0 6.5 1.9 1.5 1
0 0.2 7.1 7.7 22.3 8.7 6.6 71.4 Openness (% GDP)
0 Exports G&S 15.5 36.6 29.5 38.3 65.8 58.7 8Rank # of 8 2 Imports G&S 21.1 39.9 35.1 48.3 54.4 58.1 6
∆Rank EM 0 39.4 74.4 63.8 85.2 123.1 115.0 81.1 Aggregate
00
1.2 Institutions10-3
1.3 Infrastructure0-3
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation Ave % Growth EM* Median Rank # of 80 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20270 0 164.7 181.4 1.0 16.0 1.6 12 0 33.5 38.0 1.3 57.9 0.7 8
1.5 Health -2 65.9 67.8 0.3 65.6 -0.1 20 0 9.0 10.2 1.3 9.6 3.4 60 0 18.8 27.4 4.6 23.0 5.4 6
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank *EM median is the median of all EM countries and not the median of all regional medians2% C/A Receipts
-3.6
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
CPI5
Demographic Forecasts
Population (mm)
Dependancy Ratio (retired)Retired/Child Ratio
18.52027
12.935.4
2017-27 2017
4
6
1
6
61.8 8
29.2 43.5 32.9
Urban Pop. (% total)
2011
3.65.4
31.53.84.7
3.55.4
4.443.80.7
Total Trade
883
87
786
REER Imp. Cover (mths)Med 7.7 / Score 0.5
CA (% GDP)Med -3.6 / Score 10
EM*
4.16.3
2011
77
Med 115.5 / Score 9.9
Global Comp. Index (1-7) 3.9 7
2016 2016
7Ease of Business Index (1-10) 5.4
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Macro Risk scoresMacro Road Sign: Risk Time series
Growth
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Real GDP (%) Current Acc. Fiscal Bal.6.7 Level Trade Bal. Budget Rev.
-5 Net FDI Dom. Cred GrowthNet Port. Flows M2 Growth
Level Exports G&S
CA (% GDP) Fiscal Bal. (% GDP) Low
High Services Bal. Budget exp.Income Bal. Debt Interest
Qaility Transfers Bal. Primary bal.
Imp. Cover (mths) Overvalued Remittances3
Net Ext. Flow2 CPI5
Currency PPICA Credits MM Rate
Real GDP (%)
Low Imports G&SREER 115.5 Broad Money
7.7 5 CA DebitsVulnerability Terms of Trade4
REER4
Real Rate
2018f momentumReal GDP (%) 5.0 0.6
-4.9Short term debt
Imp Cover (mths)External Moderate Domestic Moderate Capital Flight Real Rate6 0.1 6.2
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
Real GDP (%)
Med 6.7 / Score 9.6
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Med -5 / Score 5.9
CPI
Med 5 / Score 0.5
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high pressure). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Nominal GDP $Real GDP (%) 2.0
Gulf
9.4
Economic Structure
Median
0.5 0.1
67.3 54.913.6 19.2
7.6 4.3
1
4.9
2.9
50.0 160.6
-4.1 2.4
7.1 1.1
7
254
85
26.0
7.5
Competitiveness
41.8 96.94.1
51
75.1
24.5 46.4 33.7 8
M2 StockRemittances2
Tourism2
Corruption Perc. Index (1-100) 30.5 37.05.85.7
3.5 8Getting Electricity (1-10) 7.0 4
4.06.9
Infrastructure Index (1-7)
Contract Enforcement (1-10) 4.4Protecting minority investors 5.7
Patents (applications/mm pop) 0.4 7Internet users (% Pop) 75.9 8Education (ave yrs for pop>25) 4.8 88.3
113.80.8
85
8
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000) 33.2 2Life expectancy (yrs) 68.4 7
14.566.542.9
73.6 72
66.6
1
31
715
281
88
76.7
2.317.2
1031.1
3.0
Working Age Pop. (% total) 64.6
62.2 52.3 71.5
GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
44.116.223.8
13.7 54.3 51.21.1 -0.3 0.8
20.7 23.2
56.1 85.9
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
27.785.684.12.6
0.928.1 45.1
24.5
AgricultureIndustryServices
Net DebtDom Credit Stock
4.4
-3.6 5.0
6.0 9.1
Private Con.
2.613.9Population
∆Rank1 LatAm G10 2017
75.2 211.4
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Region Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
- 5.0 10.0
S AsiaAfrica
CISE Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
S AsiaAfrica
CISE Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
S AsiaAfrica
CISE Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
0.0 5.0 10.0
S AsiaAfrica
CISE AsiaLatAm
CEMEAGulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
S AsiaAfrica
CISE Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
- 5.0 10.0
S AsiaAfrica
CISE Asia
LatAmCEMEA
GulfG10EM
113
Bangladesh
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
9.5 7.0 8.9 1.3 0.6 -1.2 10.0 8.9 4.9 3.9- 5.0- -5.0 9.5 3.9 7.9 -3.1 -2.8 -3.7 1.8 1.3 0.4 9.6 10.2 11.2 0.2 1.1 5.6 -2.3 -2.0 -2.0 5.2 9.1 7.5 13.5 15.3 16.2 9.9 0.5 4.5 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 0.5 9.6 8.0 8.1 6.4 5.5 10.0
9.5 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
9.6 4.9 1.4 0.8 0.9 7.4 7.3 3.5 12.6 16.1 14.0 3.2 4.6 4.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.1 6.0 6.0 13.1 13.8 14.4 2.0 8.3 8.9 2.7 1.4 -0.3 10.0 4.4 5.6 6.2 5.5 6.0 2.9
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
3.0 4.0 51.0 51.9 52.4 1.0 9.8 10.0 7.1 5.7 3.3 10.0 6.7 7.8 17.3 16.7 15.5 9.6 2.3 Other
2.9 9.1 6.7 30.0 26.1 24.7 9.9 8.1 5.8 6.6 7.1 7.2 9.5 2.4 0.7 -48.4 -50.6 -55.3 0.4 9.0 4.3 77.3 96.4 93.8 3.1 4.2 2.7 98.4 99.4 102.4 3.4 5.7 7.9 1.0 0.2 -2.8 5.8 0.6 4.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
3.1 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 7.2 8.34.5 6.0 3.9 3.8 4.1 1.6 -5.0 9.45.1 4.5 24.1 24.3 23.4 5.3 -1.2 9.72.5 6.1 7.2 8.0 7.7 0.5 6.0 3.81.0 7.3 -4.3 -1.5 -3.0 6.3 -2.8 7.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth7.5 14 246.6 246.6 58 50
37 7.2 6.7 58 750 164.7 164.7 94 503 3.9 5.5 13 25
18 5.2 4.2 78 10013 4.0 5.3 13 0
5 1.2 GDP by Activity %-5 -18 67.6 67.9 78 25
Med -5 2 6.4 11.7 0 025 30.3 27.5 63 75
3.1-2 -4.2 -6.5 41 75
1.3 GDP by Sector %10 -3 14.2 16.7 73 25
7.7 6 15 29.2 28.7 31 75Med 5 -4 56.5 56.3 52 75
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)0 -33 5.2 12.9 52 33
-2 61.2 62.2 60 252 55.8 55.8 56 50
-13 24.7 25.3 95 330 0.2 0.2 0 100
1.4 Openness (% GDP)1 15.5 15.5 9 50
Rank % 3 20.7 21.1 9 25∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -1 36.2 39.4 7 251.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-5 3.6 3.8 4.1 19 Exports (2016)-6 4.5 4.1 6.3 3 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 17.2 0.0 -3 26.0 26.0 37.0 9 #2 Partner Germany 11.7 0.0 0 2.1 2.2 5.8 0 #3 Partner United Kingdom 8.6 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
-32 6.7 5.7 5.7 501.3 Infrastructure
-2 2.7 2.8 4.0 90 1.2 1.6 6.9 0
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation1 4.4 4.8 8.3 17 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM3 0.4 9.6 44.4 8 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-30 0.7 0.2 0.8 24 0 164.7 181.4 1.0 16.0 941.5 Health 3 35.8 43.0 2.0 57.9 19
7 66.1 70.7 73.6 35 27 66.5 69.5 0.4 65.6 91-3 42.9 33.2 14.5 74 -3 7.7 9.4 2.3 9.6 35
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -1 18.0 27.4 5.2 23.0 39
-1.2
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 40
2017-27
16
2017
-2.9 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
250
000
4.815.40.4
33.2
0
83
11
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
0
16
4
500
2554
77
3.95.4
30.5
50
4.45.7
3.57.0
24
10
12
250
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
6
Med 6.7
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
7397
External
93.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
7.7
DomesticModerate High
Fair-valued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
7.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-5
High
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.2-1.36.2
Tourism2
Med 115.5
Med -3.6
Med 7.7
M2 Stock
-1.2
7.2
REER93.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 7.7
289
39
46
18
Region
94
Real Rate
169626
63.7
-1.3
30.4
6438
94
Life expectancy (yrs) 28 7568.4
59
70
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
6
58.7
56.447.4
10Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
47
5858820
Remittances2
Imports G&S 1336.6
5.4
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum2.9
6.0
5.3
2018f6.9
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
114
India
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
3.8 3.4 8.5 -1.1 -0.5 -1.9 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.9- 3.5- -3.1 0.9 1.8 6.8 -6.6 -4.8 -5.7 1.0 3.6 3.8 9.1 9.5 9.8 4.9 8.1 7.1 3.5 2.9 2.5 9.5 5.3 4.9 13.0 13.0 13.0 1.0 7.1 0.8 -1.1 -1.2 -1.0 6.1 3.1 0.0 3.2 3.2 2.6 0.0 9.0 6.8 3.1 2.5 2.3 9.9 4.1 5.7 0.7- 0.4- -0.6 2.5
0.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
5.0 7.2 1.7 1.7 1.3 5.2 4.9 2.6 10.0 9.9 6.8 0.5 5.0 8.6 -0.1 0.0 1.7 8.8 0.8 9.8 10.7 6.6 12.1 2.8 3.6 8.9 0.7 1.2 -0.6 4.1 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 0.6
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 8.2 7.7 3.9- 0.1- 3.2 3.6 5.3 2.6 511.0 507.5 542.4 1.9 7.2 8.0 8.7 7.6 6.1 7.5 6.3 6.5 20.0 19.2 18.3 9.8 2.3 Other
0.6 8.9 5.6 13.5 12.1 11.9 9.0 3.9 4.5 7.9 7.1 6.7 3.8 5.8 1.5 -533.4 -519.6 -590.4 1.9 5.8 6.9 109.7 111.4 115.5 9.8 5.9 7.4 98.7 95.3 85.3 8.2 6.6 7.1 3.7 2.7 1.3 2.5 2.8 5.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.8 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 6.7 6.76.0 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.0 7.4 -3.1 0.95.1 4.3 23.2 23.3 22.7 4.9 -1.9 4.53.8 4.9 8.6 9.1 9.2 2.7 4.9 0.64.0 1.2 -8.9 2.7 52.2 0.4 1.3 3.0
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth5 2 2529.0 246.6 97 100
48 6.7 6.7 40 500 1339.0 164.7 99 1006 7.1 5.5 24 75
19 5.1 4.2 75 67-5 8.8 5.3 74 100
2.5 1.2 GDP by Activity %-3.1 0 58.9 67.9 38 0
Med -5 0 12.5 11.7 34 100-13 27.5 27.5 92 2514 2.4 3.1 66 338 -1.3 -6.5 42 100
1.3 GDP by Sector %0 4 16.7 16.7 71 50
9.2 4.9 -19 28.7 28.7 62 50Med 5 4 46.9 56.3 7 0
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)5 -1 2.4 12.9 15 0
-6 74.2 62.2 74 75-8 81.9 55.8 87 75-2 11.9 25.3 74 0
0.21.4 Openness (% GDP)
-6 18.3 15.5 20 75Rank % -8 21.1 21.1 22 50
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -6 39.4 39.4 18 501.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-8 4.3 4.3 4.1 66 Exports (2016)-1 5.3 5.5 6.3 23 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 18.5 0.0 11 36.0 40.0 37.0 57 #2 Partner United Arab Emirates 7.5 0.0 6 2.6 3.5 5.8 9 #3 Partner Hong Kong 4.8 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts
21 6.0 7.3 5.7 901.3 Infrastructure
13 3.6 4.0 4.0 5035 7.1 8.5 6.9 88
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 4.1 4.4 8.3 10 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM8 5.1 18.0 44.4 25 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 20271 1.2 1.6 0.8 65 1 1339.0 1,477.3 1.0 16.0 100
1.5 Health -2 33.5 38.0 1.3 57.9 11-3 63.7 66.5 73.6 23 20 66.2 67.9 0.2 65.6 812 52.3 41.4 14.5 83 -1 9.0 11.6 2.9 9.6 46
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 0 21.6 32.6 5.1 23.0 48
-1.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 48
2017-27
13
2017
1.7 4.9
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
10050
10025
100
4.815.40.4
33.2
2
68
37
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
52
13
17
2575
10063
81
3.95.4
30.5
75
4.45.7
3.57.0
74
24
46
75100
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
4.9
Med 6.7
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
9989
External
115.5
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
9.2
DomesticModerate Low
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
6.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-3.1
Moderate
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-3.2-2.24.4
Tourism2
Med 115.5
Med -3.6
Med 7.7
M2 Stock
-1.9
6.7
REER115.5
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 9.2
34788050
42
15
Region
99
Real Rate
309569
63.7
-1.3
30.4
6147
99
Life expectancy (yrs) 26 068.4
38
76
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
11
58.7
56.447.4
14Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
12
677972Remittances2
Imports G&S 1436.6
3.7
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum6.7
5.6
5.9
2018f7.7
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
115
Nepal
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
9.9 10.0 8.2 11.4 -0.8 -6.3 9.9 1.0 1.4 -0.1 5.9 10.0 8.2 -26.5 -37.7 -41.9 10.0 0.0 2.2 21.1 23.3 23.8 0.2 7.8 3.8 1.1 0.5 0.7 2.2 20.1 21.9 23.9 10.0 7.8 0.9 1.6 1.3 1.8 0.3 5.2 8.3 35.2 35.0 33.0 1.7
5.9 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
0.1 0.2 0.5 7.3 3.6 15.0 21.3 17.7 3.6 1.9 5.2 25.0 17.6 18.0 3.1
10.0 8.4 11.6 -0.3 -6.3 10.0 7.1 0.1 7.9 8.8 5.3 0.0 1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP)
7.2 0.4 10.3 10.0 10.9 0.5 10.0 5.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 5.3 9.7 4.2 11.6 9.5 9.8 8.2 2.3 Other
0.0 4.5 65.5 65.8 0.4 10.0 3.3 0.4 7.5 9.9 0.0 0.0 -7.8 -10.2 -12.5 0.0 7.9 9.2 109.4 112.6 117.8 10.0
8.7 0.2 0.1 1.8- 1.8 0.1 1.4 8.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 9.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
10.0 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 7.5 5.46.1 9.7 2.6 2.7 3.0 5.9 -0.1 10.05.0 8.4 4.4 4.4 5.3 9.4 -6.3 9.69.3 8.6 12.4 10.2 8.5 3.8 5.3 0.8
1.8 1.8
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth10 6 24.4 246.6 16 0
36 7.5 6.7 60 100-3 29.3 164.7 66 251 2.7 5.5 6 0
4.25.3
0 1.2 GDP by Activity %-0.1 -4 76.2 67.9 83 75
Med -5 -3 11.7 11.7 25 5056 33.8 27.5 34 1000 8.7 3.1 98 100
-11 -30.5 -6.5 15 01.3 GDP by Sector %
7.5 2 27.0 16.7 93 100 8.5 5.3 -2 13.5 28.7 5 0
Med 5 -5 51.5 56.3 32 251.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)
10 12.910 87.7 62.2 69 1008 108.5 55.8 82 100
25.3 99
0.21.4 Openness (% GDP)
0 9.8 15.5 3 25Rank % 25 42.0 21.1 27 100
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 18 51.8 39.4 9 1001.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
17 3.3 3.9 4.1 24 Exports (2016)-5 6.0 5.9 6.3 36 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner India 54.9 0.0 3 27.0 29.0 37.0 18 #2 Partner United States 11.9 0.0 -4 5.0 4.5 5.8 17 #3 Partner Turkey 4.2 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts8 5.3 5.8 5.7 57
1.3 Infrastructure-3 2.4 2.7 4.0 7
-37 7.4 5.8 6.9 261.4 Human Capital and Innovation
-2 2.9 3.2 8.3 5 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM8 2.1 15.4 44.4 17 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027-4 0.2 0.2 0.8 21 -1 29.3 32.4 1.1 16.0 62
1.5 Health 0 19.4 23.7 2.2 57.9 3-3 66.7 68.4 73.6 30 51 63.3 67.8 0.7 65.6 80-5 40.8 32.2 14.5 70 -8 9.2 10.2 1.1 9.6 40
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -2 18.8 27.4 4.6 23.0 40
-6.3
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 43
2017-27
3
2017
0.3 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
50100
2510025
4.815.40.4
33.2
22
48
10
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
64
7
9
050026
76
3.95.4
30.5
25
4.45.7
3.57.0
7
41
15
050
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
5.3
Med 6.7
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
2298
External
117.8
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
8.5
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityLow
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
7.5Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-0.1
High
QailityLow
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.1-6.06.7
Tourism2
Med 115.5
Med -3.6
Med 7.7
M2 Stock
-6.3
7.5
REER117.8
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 8.5
2292983
3
Region
63
Real Rate
7
63.7
-1.3
30.4
2849
63
Life expectancy (yrs) 32 5068.4
79
95
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
28
58.7
56.447.4
3Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
26
8091
Remittances2
Imports G&S 5336.6
8.5
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum1.7
10.0
4.8
2018f4.7
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
116
Pakistan
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
9.4 7.1 8.2 -1.0 -2.5 -4.9 8.1 3.3 8.0 5.3- 4.6- -5.9 4.0 7.6 8.7 -6.3 -7.5 -9.5 9.9 1.1 3.9 14.3 15.3 15.5 0.2 6.4 5.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.5 4.7 5.7 8.4 19.6 19.9 21.3 9.5 3.2 4.3 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 2.9 3.8 3.1 4.9 4.7 4.4 1.2 5.5 7.6 8.2 8.2 7.8 5.1 3.9 8.0 0.4- 0.1 -1.4 5.9
4.0 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
3.6 5.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 6.7 5.9 6.2 12.0 13.8 16.2 5.1 2.8 1.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 6.6 4.0 12.8 15.5 13.9 5.1 7.1 8.6 -0.4 -1.7 -4.1 9.5 5.9 6.0 2.5 3.8 5.0 1.7
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 6.8 5.8 2.5- 1.7 3.5 2.1 6.6 3.4 51.7 50.4 51.8 1.7 9.7 7.7 9.9 7.2 6.0 9.9 9.3 8.0 10.6 9.1 8.3 10.0 2.3 Other
1.7 1.9 7.3 37.4 39.2 37.9 0.7 7.1 5.6 4.7 5.5 5.7 9.4 3.3 0.8 -54.4 -57.3 -66.6 0.0 8.9 0.4 112.7 119.4 109.4 8.4 2.6 8.5 98.4 102.7 95.8 8.1 7.6 6.6 7.3 3.4 1.0 4.9 2.9 8.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.0 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
8.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 5.7 8.05.1 7.4 5.7 5.8 7.8 7.4 -5.9 2.75.1 9.4 32.3 32.7 54.5 9.7 -4.9 8.04.5 8.3 4.9 5.1 3.6 6.5 5.0 2.37.7 1.9 0.8 -1.0 1.2 2.4 1.0 7.1
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth2.5 7 304.0 246.6 68 75
67 5.7 6.7 14 250 197.0 164.7 96 75-6 5.5 5.5 28 5056 3.2 4.2 20 3318 6.1 5.3 30 67
10 1.2 GDP by Activity %-5.9 3 81.8 67.9 90 100
Med -5 -1 11.9 11.7 24 75-4 14.2 27.5 14 022 1.6 3.1 47 0-14 -9.5 -6.5 34 25
1.3 GDP by Sector %2.5 10 24.7 16.7 80 75
3.6 5 -3 19.1 28.7 13 25Med 5 -5 56.3 56.3 51 50
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)2.5 -25 20.5 12.9 63 67
-11 55.5 62.2 59 0-6 47.5 55.8 57 2513 37.9 25.3 81 100
0.21.4 Openness (% GDP)
0 8.3 15.5 1 0Rank % -2 17.8 21.1 7 0
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM 3 26.1 39.4 1 01.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-5 3.5 3.4 4.1 6 Exports (2016)-12 5.4 5.2 6.3 15 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 15.8 0.0 18 27.0 32.0 37.0 33 #2 Partner China 8.7 0.0 3 3.8 4.3 5.8 16 #3 Partner United Kingdom 6.7 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts5 6.3 6.7 5.7 80
1.3 Infrastructure1 3.5 3.5 4.0 31
-10 5.4 4.2 6.9 71.4 Human Capital and Innovation
-2 4.7 4.9 8.3 18 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM-21 11.3 13.8 44.4 13 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 202710 0.2 0.4 0.8 34 0 197.0 233.9 1.9 16.0 96
1.5 Health 0 39.7 44.9 1.3 57.9 21-6 66.5 66.6 73.6 24 11 60.7 62.9 0.4 65.6 347 71.9 69.0 14.5 98 -6 7.4 8.2 1.1 9.6 29
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank -7 12.9 16.2 2.5 23.0 21
-4.9
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 29
2017-27
21
2017
0.6 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
025
507575
4.815.40.4
33.2
13
75
30
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
16
20
34
75255023
90
3.95.4
30.5
100
4.45.7
3.57.0
11
27
15
5025
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
5
Med 6.7
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
7582
External
109.4
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3.6
DomesticHigh Moderate
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
5.7Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-5.9
High
QailityModerate
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-5.5-4.85.4
Tourism2
Med 115.5
Med -3.6
Med 7.7
M2 Stock
-4.9
5.7
REER109.4
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3.6
239
7020
9
37
Region
96
Real Rate
227849
63.7
-1.3
30.4
2235
96
Life expectancy (yrs) 30 2568.4
93
90
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
4
58.7
56.447.4
1Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
45
475194Remittances2
Imports G&S 536.6
5.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum1.6
3.8
4.8
2018f5.0
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
117
Sri Lanka
1. External 2. DomesticMomentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1 Momentum1 2015 2016 2017e Score1
1.1 Current Account 1 (% GDP) 2.1 Fiscal Accounts (% GDP)
1.9 5.1 6.3 -2.3 -2.4 -3.6 4.5 0.4 4.4 7.6- 5.4- -5.2 1.2 6.0 5.3 -10.4 -11.2 -11.4 7.6 1.3 1.9 13.3 14.3 15.1 0.2 2.6 4.4 2.9 3.5 3.7 0.6 2.4 6.3 20.9 19.7 20.3 7.1 6.2 4.4 -2.5 -2.7 -2.6 8.9 2.8 10.0 7.7 7.9 6.7 6.3
1.2 1.2 Capital Account (% GDP) 2.2 Price Indicators (%)
4.6 4.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 7.8 3.5 3.7 27.6 22.5 18.2 5.2 6.1 4.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 5.9 6.5 7.9 17.2 18.9 22.1 9.6 5.0 6.3 -1.6 -1.6 -2.7 4.9 6.0 5.6 2.2 4.0 5.0 3.2
1.3 Current Account 2 (% GDP) 3.6 1.7 16.8 10.0 2.9 2.5 24.1 24.8 25.8 0.7 5.3 3.1 6.6 6.3 8.0 7.4 4.1 4.7 21.0 21.4 21.6 5.5 2.3 Other
3.2 4.7 9.6 29.1 29.2 25.9 6.3 4.3 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.2 1.9 4.0 2.5 -26.0 -26.8 -28.9 0.6 5.1 6.7 114.1 114.3 116.7 9.4 4.6 5.3 84.6 87.4 86.5 7.7 6.0 4.7 4.3 2.3 3.0 4.7 5.5 4.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.6 3. Forecasts 2017e Score
9.4 1.4 Reserves (multiple reserves) 4.2 3.49.2 5.7 4.1 5.5 5.7 9.9 -5.2 1.17.3 4.5 103.9 123.2 119.0 9.2 -3.6 4.67.0 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.2 7.6 5.0 4.56.3 4.0 -1.8 -2.7 -2.0 6.3 3.0 7.3
Source: EIU, Bloomberg, ICBC Standard Bank
Rank %2017e Regional EM 2012
1.1 Size, Welath & Growth0 8 86.7 246.6 47 25
1 4.2 6.7 57 00 20.9 164.7 57 03 13.2 5.5 48 100
49 2.8 4.2 16 01 4.5 5.3 31 33
7.5 1.2 GDP by Activity %-5.2 -4 67.9 67.9 65 50
Med -5 -62 7.3 11.7 68 2521 27.5 27.5 56 2528 3.8 3.1 65 6711 -6.5 -6.5 21 50
1.3 GDP by Sector %2.5 -5 7.8 16.7 53 0
3.2 5 11 30.5 28.7 39 100Med 5 -2 61.7 56.3 66 100
1.3 Generalised Leverage (% GDP)7.5 0 52.4 12.9 74 100
11 62.2 62.2 47 5012 44.8 55.8 32 0-3 25.9 25.3 87 67
0.21.4 Openness (% GDP)
2 21.6 15.5 22 100Rank % -8 28.7 21.1 40 75
∆Rank EM 2011 2016 EM EM -1 50.3 39.4 27 751.1 Aggregate 1.5 Current Account Receipt Partner Breakdown
-9 4.2 4.2 4.1 55 Exports (2016)-13 6.1 5.9 6.3 33 % Exports % GDP
1.2 Institutions #1 Partner United States 27.8 0.0 -14 40.0 36.0 37.0 47 #2 Partner United Kingdom 8.5 0.0 -1 3.9 3.9 5.8 13 #3 Partner India 6.2 0.0 1 # Countries 2% C/A Receipts1 6.0 6.3 5.7 70
1.3 Infrastructure26 4.4 5.1 4.0 917 6.8 7.1 6.9 58
1.4 Human Capital and Innovation-2 9.1 9.3 8.3 63 Ave % Growth EM Median Rank % EM4 8.8 25.8 44.4 32 2017 2027 2017-27 2017 2027
-12 0.7 0.6 0.8 44 -2 20.9 21.9 0.3 16.0 561.5 Health -1 18.5 20.1 0.9 57.9 1-13 74.1 74.2 73.6 59 6 65.9 65.3 -0.1 65.6 61-12 13.1 8.2 14.5 24 -1 15.3 21.8 4.3 9.6 69
Source: EIU, WB, UNDP, WEF, Bloomberg, Transparency International, ICBC Standard Bank 3 41.9 69.6 6.6 23.0 70
-3.6
CPI
110yr average est. percentile adjusted for direction (high # = high risk). Score is raw data (5 = average). Momentum is annual change in raw (5 = zero change).
2C/A. + Net FDI 3% C/A. 410yr ave=100 5Current=latest monthly/other annual ave. 6Current MM Rate-Forecast CPI
Currency
Retired/Child Ratio 35.4 5.4 67
2017-27
2
2017
2.0 5.0
∆Rank EM1
Level
Median
Capital Flight
Remittances3
CA DebitsTerms of Trade4
Imports G&S
Broad MoneyShort term debt
Population (mm)Urban Pop. (% total)Working Age Pop. (% total)Dependancy Ratio (retired)
10yr History: Bottom quartile / low riskTop quartile / high risk
Raw: Bottom quartile Top quartile
74.4
3.97.1
Real GDP (%)Population GDP/Head (PPP)Labour Prod. %Unempl. %
Gov Con.InvestmentStockbuildingExternal Bal.
Total Trade
Fiscal Bal.Budget Rev.
Demographic Forecasts
Imp Cover (mths)
Patents (applications/mm pop)
Infant mortality (deaths/1,000)
7575
755050
4.815.40.4
33.2
14
68
64
Global Comp. Index (1-7)Ease of Business Index (1-10)
Contract Enforcement (1-10)Corruption Perc. Index (1-100)
Protecting minority investors
Infrastructure Index (1-7)Getting Electricity (1-10)
Education (ave yrs for pop>25)Internet users (% Pop)
50
65
28
1001007556
37
3.95.4
30.5
0
4.45.7
3.57.0
63
46
62
10075
REER
Regional RegionalEM 2011
8.3
25.3
5
Med 6.7
Comparative Analysis (Cross Section)
22.20.7
Real GDP (%)REER4
EM
66.3
EM
5558
External
116.7
3.716.912.91.96.1
14.6
3.2
DomesticHigh Low
Overvalued
VulnerabilityModerate
Macro Road Sign: Risk Time series
4.2Real GDP (%)
Growth
Level
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
-5.2
Low
QailityHigh
Macro Risk scores
Debt InterestPrimary bal.
Budget exp.
Current Acc.Trade Bal.Services Bal.Income Bal.Transfers Bal.
Real Rate6
Exports G&S
Fiscal Bal.Current Acc.
Dom. Cred GrowthM2 GrowthCPI5
PPIMM Rate
Net FDINet Port. FlowsNet Ext. Flow2
CA Credits
-4.9-3.66.0
Tourism2
Med 115.5
Med -3.6
Med 7.7
M2 Stock
-3.6
4.2
REER116.7
Private Con.
Agriculture
Net Debt
IndustryServices
Dom Credit Stock
Risk Analysis (Time Series)
Nominal GDP $
Competitiveness
Macro Road Sign: Regional cross section Economic Structure
Fiscal Bal. (% GDP)
Real GDP (%)
CPI 3.2
4789432
51
74
Region
57
Real Rate
516732
63.7
-1.3
30.4
5470
59
Life expectancy (yrs) 72 10068.4
60
48
2027
18.5
64.612.9
61.81.60.7-0.13.4
26
58.7
56.447.4
24Exports G&S
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
Imp. Cover (mths)
CA (% GDP)
39.9
64
594484Remittances2
Imports G&S 3136.6
5.6
Real GDP (%)
CPI5
momentum5.9
4.2
5.0
2018f4.8
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Country score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
Country Score Midline Momentum 2018 CPI Forecast
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