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© 2020 Old Dominion University

Management of Complex Systems and Their Wicked Problems

June 4, 2020

Chuck Keating, Ph.D.ckeating@odu.edu

Management of Complexity

Complexity in our systems is not optional -- how we manage that complexity is ….

0316 Point Governance (control) Check for Complex Systems –(QIA) Quiz-in-Action

02Why? A Systems Theory Explanation and Response

Explain

01Complex Systems, the Problem Domain & Wicked Problems

Management of Complex

Systems and Wicked

Problems

Discussion

Basic Notion of an Open System

Environment

OutputInput Transformation

Feedback (extrinsic)

Boundary

© 2020 C. Keating, All rights reserved

What makes a system complex

Richly interconnected, nonlinear relationships, elaboration

Five

Poi

nts

Pers

pect

iveLarge number of entities

Uncertainty

Dynamic Interaction

Emergent

Ambiguous

Cause-effect relationships poorly understood; fallible knowledge

Changing over time

Unpredictable behaviors, patterns, performance

Lack of clarity in system definition and context

1

2

3

4

5

Complex System Problem Domain

Complex System Problem Domain

Politics

Infrastructure

Social

Information

Culture

Education

Resources

Demographics

Economics

Environment Technology

Laws & Regulations

Conflicting Perspectives

Shifting Demands

Unstable Resources

High Uncertainty

Emergent Situations Solution Urgency

Lack Sufficient Information

Misinformation/defensiveness

Politically Charged

Divergent Stakeholders

Unclear Entry Point

Ambiguous Boundaries

Unintended Consequences

Instabilities

© 2020 C. Keating, All rights reserved

Produces Wicked Problems*

*Adapted from Rittel, H., and M. Webber; “Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning” pp 155-169, Policy Sciences, Vol. 4, Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Inc., Amsterdam, 1973.

System ‘Variety’ can explain a lotVariety is a measure of complexityMeasured as the number of different possible system statesMathematically, to compute the variety of a non-trivial simple system

V : Varietyz : the number of possible

states of each elementn : Number of elements

V = zn

Example – Variety for a project team ‘system’

Given 17 project team membersEach member can be in one of 9 states: (1) highly engaged, (2) engaged, (3) somewhat engaged, (4) neither engaged nor disengaged, (5) somewhat disengaged, (6) disengaged, (7) highly disengaged, (8) checked out, (9) uninterested

V = zn = 917

16,677,181,699,666,569Or Approx 16.7 Quadrillion

© 2018 C. Keating, All rights reserved

What does increasing complexity look like in graphical form?

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

0000000

0000000

1E+09

1E+10

1E+11

1E+12

1E+13

1E+14

1E+15

1E+16

1E+17

1E+18

1E+19

1E+20

1E+21

1E+22

1E+23

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Variety as Measure of Complexity (logarithm base 10)

Entities Variety

1E+23 = 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000or 100 sextillion

Perspective of Ashby’s Law of Requisite Variety

‘only variety can destroy variety’ (Ashby, 1956: 207)

“If a system is to be stable, the number of states of its control mechanism must be greater than or equal to the number of states in the system being controlled.” (Ashby)

W. Ross Ashby1903 – 1972

Vr > Ve

Requisite Variety

Lewis, G. J., & Stewart, N. (2003). The measurement of environmental performance: an application of Ashby's law. Systems Research and Behavioral Science: The Official Journal of the International Federation for Systems Research, 20(1), 31-52.

Four Fundamental Points of Requisite Variety

Regulation is about implementing controlsthat constrain system elements

RV is managed by system design: self-organization, accretion, or purposeful

Paradox of complex system control: To get control you must give up control

Over constraint wastes resources and ‘steals’ element autonomy. Under constraint sacrifices system level performance and integration.

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System Variety must equal or exceed Environment Variety

© 2020 Old Dominion University © Copyright 2020 Old Dominion University

CSG is the design, execution, and evolution of the [nine] metasystem functions necessary to provide control, communication, coordination, and integration of a complex system.

Required for viability of all complex systems; effectiveness responsible for performance

Only three things that can be done with respect to a system

Produces and maintains system viability and sustainable performance

*Keating, C. B., Katina, P. F., & Bradley, J. M. (2014). Complex system governance: concept, challenges, and emerging research. International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 5(3), 263-288.

Policy and Identity – focused on overall steering, giving direction

and identity for the system. Includes system context and

strategic monitoring

System Operations –focused on the day to day operations of the metasystem to ensure that the system maintains performance levels. Includes operational performance.

System Development – focused on the long-range development of the system to ensure future viability. Includes environmental scanning and ‘learning and transformation’.

Information & Communications –focused the flow of information and consistency of interpretation of exchanges

Puppet(s)

Puppet Master

Puppet Designer

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ComplexSystem(s)

Governance

Keating, C.B., Katina, P.F., & Bradley, J. M. (2014). Complex system governance: concept, challenges, and emerging research. International Journal of System of Systems Engineering, 5(3), 263-288.

Analogy for CSG – the Puppet Master

83 System Theory Principles, Laws,

Concepts

Maps to 9 Governance Functions

OBSERVEDFAILURE(s)

Same underlying system pathology appears as ‘different’ surface issues

53 ComplexSystem Pathologies

UNOBSERVED FAILURE SOURCES

Cost Overrun Schedule Overrun

Missed Performance Target

High Employee Turnover

In Summary - CSG in a Nutshell

All systems perform essential governance functions and are subject to fundamental systems laws. Violation of fundamental system laws produces consequences that degrade system performance. System performance can be enhanced through purposeful design, execution, and evolution [development] of essential system governance functions in accordance with fundamental system laws.

(Keating, 2016)

* select a complex system of interest (project, entity, organization, team, department, program, service, etc.)

Item 1 2 3 4 5

1We have a detailed mapping of our system (organization) that shows how we function to produce value.

2

We actively perform scanning of our environment by design to identify events, entities, trends, or patterns that impact present system (organization) performance and future system (organization) development.

3 We effectively keep up with turbulence and rate of change that exist in our environment.

4Our system (organization) effectively balances accountability with resources necessary to achieve expected levels of performance.

ScoringLess More

Item 1 2 3 4 5

5We routinely communicate the right information, at the right time, and at the right place to support consistent decision and action.

6

We share and maintain our identity such that our uniqueness is clear and we have a common reference point to support consistent decision, action, and interpretation.

7Our strategic system (organization) performance measures are balanced, monitored, and effectively utilized for system (organization) improvement.

8We effectively detect, correct, and learn from our system errors, making system (organization) adjustments to preclude recurrence.

ScoringLess More

Item 1 2 3 4 5

9

Our system (organization) design provides the greatest possible degree of flexibility for making local decisions and taking action in response to changing circumstances.

10

We actively pursue rigorous ‘self-study’ of our system (organization) design and execution in pursuit of purposeful system (organization) development.

11

There is an appropriate balance between short and long term focus for our system (organization) that continues to evolve with our changing circumstances.

12

We provide effective coordination and communication between entities in our system (organization) such that unnecessary variability is eliminated.

ScoringLess More

Item 1 2 3 4 5

13Our system (organization) design and execution effectively eliminates operation in “crisis” or “reactive” modes.

14

We effectively design and account for the wide range of influences on our system (organization) [technical, human, social, organizational, managerial, political, policy, cultural, and stakeholder].

15We are effective in management of the different stakeholders who have an interest and impact on our system (organization).

16Our operational performance measures are effective in assessing the day to day function of our system (organization).

ScoringLess More

16 Point Check – So what? Who cares? What’s the big deal?

Sum the totals for the Check:

0 – 48 System may need major modifications

49 – 64 System may need some modification

65 – 80 System appears in good working order

Any item 3 or below should be evaluated

© 2020 C. Keating, All rights reserved

Open Discussion

Chuck Keating, Ph.D., ckeating@odu.edu

Old Dominion UniversityEngineering Management & Systems EngineeringNational Centers for System of Systems Engineering