mapping the future: technology, people and rural prosperity...2008 trends medium2 2006-2008 trends...

Some commentsPanel: Linking Human Capital and Technology

Mapping the Future:Technology, People and Rural Prosperity

2014 Economic Revitalization ConferenceMonieson Centre, Queen’s University

April 8, 2014

Ray D. Bollman

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.netResearch Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University

Adjunct Professor, University of SaskatchewanRayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 1

Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends3. Technology in rural Canada4. What happened to the promise of telework?5. One vision for Eastern Ontario

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 2

Outline:1. Potential labour shortage

• In 2015, Canada will have fewer potential labour market entrants per potential retiree

• A potential labour market shortage• To quote Red Green

• “We’re all in this together, I’m pullin’ ferya.”

• Nunavut is the exceptionRayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 3

Potential entrants to the labour force (10 to 19 years of age) as a percentof potential exiters from the labour force (55 to 64 years of age)

Historical data

L: Low growth

Medium1 1981-2008 trendsMedium2 2006-2008 trendsMedium3 1988-1996 trendsMedium4 2001-2006 trendsHigh growth

A1 replacementfertilityA2 zeroimmigrationA3 1%immigration

Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates and Projections, CANSIM Tables 051-0001 and 052-0005.

Labour market shortage (regardless of projection scenario) from 2010 to 2025due to less than 100 (potential) labour market entrants

per 100 (potential) labour market retirees, Canada

Potential entrants to the labour force (10 to 19 years of age) as a percentof potential exiters from the labour force (55 to 64 years of age)

Historical data

L: Low growth

Medium1 1981-2008 trendsMedium2 2006-2008 trendsMedium3 1988-1996 trendsMedium4 2001-2006 trendsHigh growth

A1 replacementfertilityA2 zeroimmigrationA3 1%immigration

Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates and Projections, CANSIM Tables 051-0001 and 052-0005.

Labour market shortage (regardless of projection scenario) from 2010 to 2025due to less than 100 (potential) labour market entrants

per 100 (potential) labour market retirees, Canada

Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends

• The number employed has recovered from the 2009 downturn

• But the employment rate (% of population that is employed) has not recovered

198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

Number employed (,000)(12-month moving average)

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.

Number employed in Ontario'sKingston - Pembroke Economic Region

198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014

Number employed (,000)(12-month moving average)

Number employed in Ontario'sOttawa (and area) Economic Region

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014

12-month moving averageMonthly data

Employment rate: Percent of the population, 15 years and over, that is employed

Employment rate:Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014

12-month moving average

Monthly data

Employment rate: Percent of the population, 15 years and over, that is employed

Employment rate:Ottawa (and area) Economic Region

Outline:1. Potential labour shortage2. Eastern Ontario employment trends3. Technology in rural Canada

Technology in rural Canada• Some arithmetic

Value of economic production

i.e. Value-added

i.e. Gross domestic product

is equal to the value added to intermediate products by capital

(machinery, equipment, buildings) and by labour

GDP = K + L

GDP / L = K / L

GDP / worker (i.e. labour productivity)

is (perhaps obviously) higher with more K / L

(i.e. more capital per worker)

Technology in rural Canada

GDP / worker (i.e. labour productivity)

is (perhaps obviously) higher with more K / L

(i.e. more capital per worker)

• Technology (almost always) arrives in the form of K (i.e. a capital investment)

• More technology (almost always) improves worker productivity

• Note: do not tax K - - maybe tax the capitalists but do not tax the capital

• And - - - there will be winners and losers in each place where new technology arrives

• Distance-reducing technology• i.e. a technology that reduces the price of

distance

• Recall: Rural retail before the post office• Then a distance-reducing technology came

along - - - the postal system• Then the Eaton’s catalogue put some rural

retailers out of business• But many local consumers were happier

• And what is now putting Canada Post out of business - - - another distance-reducing technology - - - the Internet

• Recall: Rural retail with dirt roads• Every mainstreet business wanted a gravel

road into their town• Then every mainstreet business wanted a

paved road into their town• Then, mainstreet businesses discovered

that one could drive on both sides of a paved road and town residents could drive to the regional centre to shop

• And many local consumers were happier

• Recall: Rural travel agents before the Internet

• Provided a fantastic service• Then came the Internet• Every rural traveller could make his/her own

bookings• Most mainstreet travel agents went out of

business• And many local consumers were happier

• Note two themes:• With each new technology, there were

winners and losers• Most local consumers were happier.

4. What happened to the promise of telework?• Remember the promise that the Internet would

let one work anywhere & live where one wanteda. How many couples have both spouses that i) could and

ii) would want to “live rural”?b. My telework experience:

• Good news – no meetings• Bad news – no meetings – did not know what was going on• Good news – I did not want to know what was going on• BUT – no new networks >> no chance of promotion

• An academy in each rural town that will bring in high school students and considerable tuition $$$ / student

• Some examples . . . RayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 20

• Oyen, Alberta• 2011 population = 973

• A sports academy in each rural town• Baseball• Curling

• A language academy in each rural townRayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 25

• An academy in each rural town• i.e. find a service to export

Mapping the Future:Technology, People and Rural Prosperity

2014 Economic Revitalization ConferenceMonieson Centre, Queen’s University

April 8, 2014

Ray D. Bollman

RayD.Bollman@sasktel.netResearch Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon University

Adjunct Professor, University of SaskatchewanRayD.Bollman@sasktel.net 27

Questions / Discussion

mapping the future: technology, people and rural prosperity...2008 trends medium2 2006-2008 trends...

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