market returns during election years - summit financial...2000: bush vs. gore 2004: bush vs. kerry...
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Market Returns During Election Years
Data as of December 31, 2019
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Market Returns and Election Years
2Sources: S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved; MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved; Bloomberg Barclays Capital data provided by Bloomberg.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
It is difficult to identify systematic return patterns in elections years.
On average, market returns have been positive both in election
years and the subsequent year.
Market expectations associated with election outcomes are
embedded in security prices.
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Returns During and After Election Years
3Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: S&P data © 2019 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
S&P 500 Index: 1928–2017
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1928: Hoover vs. Smith
1932: Roosevelt vs. Hoover
1936: Roosevelt vs. Landon
1940: Roosevelt vs. Willkie
1944: Roosevelt vs. Dewey
1948: Truman vs. Dewey
1952: Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1956: Eisenhower vs. Stevenson
1960: Kennedy vs. Nixon
1964: Johnson vs. Goldwater
1968: Nixon vs. Humphrey
1972: Nixon vs. McGovern
1976: Carter vs. Ford
1980: Reagan vs. Carter
1984: Reagan vs. Mondale
1988: Bush vs. Dukakis
1992: Clinton vs. Bush
1996: Clinton vs. Dole
2000: Bush vs. Gore
2004: Bush vs. Kerry
2008: Obama vs. McCain
2012: Obama vs. Romney
2016: Trump vs. Clinton
Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 9.9%
Average Return During Election Year = 11.3%
#50085-0116
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Annualized Returns During Presidential Terms
4
#50085-0116
Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
S&P 500 Index: 1929–2019
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1929–1932: Hoover
1933–1936: Roosevelt
1937–1940: Roosevelt
1941–1944: Roosevelt
1945–1948: Roosevelt
1949–1952: Truman
1953–1956: Eisenhower
1957–1960:Eisenhower
1961–1964: Kennedy
1965–1968: Johnson
1969–1972: Nixon
1973–1976: Nixon
1977–1980: Carter
1981–1984: Reagan
1985–1988: Reagan
1989–1992: Bush
1993–1996: Clinton
1997–2000: Clinton
2001–2004: Bush
2005–2008: Bush
2009–2012: Obama
2013–2016: Obama
2017–2019: Trump
Average Return for Presidential Terms = 10.3%
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Returns During and After Election Years
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1. Net dividends.Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.
MSCI EAFE Index1: 1972–2017
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1972: Nixon vs. McGovern
1976: Carter vs. Ford
1980: Reagan vs. Carter
1984: Reagan vs. Mondale
1988: Bush vs. Dukakis
1992: Clinton vs. Bush
1996: Clinton vs. Dole
2000: Bush vs. Gore
2004: Bush vs. Kerry
2008: Obama vs. McCain
2012: Obama vs. Romney
2016: Trump vs. Clinton
Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 14.5%
Average Return During Election Year = 6.0%
#50085-0116
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Annualized Returns During Presidential Terms
6
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1. Net Dividends.Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data © MSCI 2020, all rights reserved.
MSCI EAFE Index1: 1973–2019
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1973–1976: Nixon
1977–1980: Carter
1981–1984: Reagan
1985–1988: Reagan
1989–1992: Bush
1993–1996: Clinton
1997–2000: Clinton
2001–2004: Bush
2005–2008: Bush
2009–2012: Obama
2013–2016: Obama
2017–2019: Trump
Average Return for Presidential Terms = 8.9%
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Returns During and After Election Years
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1. Gross dividends. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data © MSCI 2019, all rights reserved.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index1: 1988–2017
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1988: Bush vs. Dukakis
1992: Clinton vs. Bush
1996: Clinton vs. Dole
2000: Bush vs. Gore
2004: Bush vs. Kerry
2008: Obama vs. McCain
2012: Obama vs. Romney
2016: Trump vs. Clinton
Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 34.4%
Average Return During Election Year = 3.8%
#50085-0116
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Annualized Returns During Presidential Terms
1. Gross dividends. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: MSCI data © MSCI 2020, all rights reserved.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index1: 1989–2019
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1989–1992: Bush
1993–1996: Clinton
1997–2000: Clinton
2001–2004: Bush
2005–2008: Bush
2009–2012: Obama
2013–2016: Obama
2017–2019: Trump
Average Return for Presidential Terms = 10.4%
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Returns During and After Election Years
9Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index: 1976–2017
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1976: Carter vs. Ford
1980: Reagan vs. Carter
1984: Reagan vs. Mondale
1988: Bush vs. Dukakis
1992: Clinton vs. Bush
1996: Clinton vs. Dole
2000: Bush vs. Gore
2004: Bush vs. Kerry
2008: Obama vs. McCain
2012: Obama vs. Romney
2016: Trump vs. Clinton
Average Return Year Subsequent to Election = 7.3%
Average Return During Election Year = 7.6%
#50085-0116
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#50085-0116
Annualized Returns During Presidential Terms
10Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Index returns are not representative of actual portfolios and do not reflect costs and fees associated with an actual investment. Actual returns may be lower. Source: Bloomberg Barclays data provided by Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index: 1977–2019
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
1977–1980: Carter
1981–1984: Reagan
1985–1988: Reagan
1989–1992: Bush
1993–1996: Clinton
1997–2000: Clinton
2001–2004: Bush
2005–2008: Bush
2009–2012: Obama
2013–2016: Obama
2017–2019: Trump
Average Return for Presidential Terms = 7.1%
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Presidential Elections and S&P 500 Returns
11Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Source: S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
Histogram of Monthly Returns: January 1926–December 2019
Be
low
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Monthly Return Ranges
Month a Republican Won Month a Democrat Won Non-Election Month
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$0
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
1926 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Republican President Democratic President
Coolidge
Hoover
Roosevelt
Truman
Eisenhower
Kennedy
JohnsonNixon Ford
Carter
Reagan
Bush
Clinton
Trump
Bush
Obama
Markets Have Rewarded Long-Term Investors under a Variety of Presidents
12Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Source: S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
Growth of a Dollar Invested in the S&P 500: January 1926–December 2019
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Midterm Elections and S&P 500 Index Returns
13Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Source: S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
Histogram of Monthly Returns: January 1926–December 2019
Be
low
-2
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% t
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19%
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% t
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18%
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% t
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Ab
ove
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Monthly Return Ranges
Republican WinDemocratic WinMixedNo Election
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$0
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
1926 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Republican Democratic Mixed
Hypothetical Growth of $1 Invested in the S&P 500 Index and Party Control of Congress
14Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Source: S&P data © 2020 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global. All rights reserved.
January 1926–December 2019
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