martin rahman donna tranter david fitzgerald organisational development west yorkshire police...

Martin RahmanDonna Tranter

David FitzgeraldOrganisational Development

West Yorkshire Police

Bringing OR to the Frontline

Bringing OR to the Frontline

The Traditional Approach to Applying OR in WYP: Analysis undertaken in a

‘laboratory’ by specialist

OR Techniques Typically Used• Hard mathematical models - deterministic (e.g. a

scientific law), statistical (e.g. based on observed data) or a combination

• Discrete event simulation models • Static simulation -e.g. Excel• Continuous event simulations - e.g. SD Modelling• Softer representations of problem situations e.g.

influence diagrams, process mapping, SSM etc.• Lean tools and techniques - e.g. process improvement• Multi Criteria Decision Analysis

Typical Applications• Force Call Bureau - resource optimisation• Response - Optimum Team Size against Demand

Profiles• Firearms Support Unit - minimising the use of

Divisional Firearms Officers - greater use of central team

• Transport - Lean Review and Optimising Vehicle Allocation

• SOCO - travel times and location• Custody - process/estate• Review of Divisional Policing Processes• Understanding of Unintended Impact of Alternative

Resourcing Policies

Using SD to Understand Crime

Contact from the public

Appropriate resource

Scene attendance

Assessment

ArrestAlternative disposal

Custodial

Trial (CPS)

File building

Crime recording

Investigation ManagementEvidence

assessment (force / CPS)

Custody

DeploymentAssessment

High level qualitative map – causal loop diagram

Developed into Quantitative diagrams

Contact from the Public

Contact from the public

Appropriate resource

Scene attendance

Assessment

ArrestAlternative disposal

Custodial

Trial (CPS)

File buildingCrime recording

Investigation ManagementEvidence

assessment (force / CPS)

Custody

DeploymentAssessment

Witness based simulation modelling to determine resourcing levels based on historical demand

Simulation models used as the basis of a shift roster – highlights problematic periods

Alternative ways of predicting demand e.g. temperature – 80% correlation

Deploying Resources

Contact from the public

Appropriate resource

Scene attendance

Assessment

ArrestAlternative disposal

Custodial

Trial (CPS)

File building

Crime recording

Investigation ManagementEvidence

assessment (force / CPS)

Custody

DeploymentAssessment

Witness based simulation modelling to determine number of vehicles required – too complicated

Off the shelf solution – Response Modeller

Key characteristics:Simulation ModellingOptimisation Process mapping Performance Monitoring Value Stream Analysis Working Pattern Design

• Value Stream Mapping• The identification of waste through detailed data

analysis• Use of Kaizen Blitz• Quest Projects

Using Lean to help maximise resource efficiency & productivity

Response from Frontline• Not invented here resistance• Cultural acceptability / credibility of approaches• Uniqueness of problems – everyone’s different• Don’t like what we don’t understand• Loss of control in decision making• No incentive to adopt solutions locallyLeads to:• Partial / selective implementation of acceptable parts • Inefficient / ineffective resource usage (locally and the

analytical team) • Resorting to local operational professional judgement• Constantly revisiting old problems

Our Response

How to improve the acceptance and adoption of OR products without loss of

reliability or quality

Bringing OR to the Frontline

Supporting the Local Policing Review

Bringing OR to the FrontlineSupporting the Local Policing Review

Overview• Review of core operational service provision within 8 divisions -

Response, Neighbourhoods and Investigations• Reshape policing services to identify most effective and efficient

ways to meet demand, recognising local operational context• 8 divisional project teams - Local Ownership• Small Central Support Team to guide and co-ordinate - Business

Change specialists and operational Inspectors

Two of the key principles were: • ‘Bottom-up’ - Optimising engagement with local operational staff • ‘Evidence Based’ - Demand driven both in terms of Managing,

Reducing and Responding

Bringing OR to the FrontlineSupporting the Local Policing Review

Approach• Corporate Framework for local project teams comprising:-

- Phase One - Issue Identification, Validation and Opportunities for Change- Phase Two - Business Case Development (Approved Changes)- Phase Three - Implementation

• Phase One - Completed 15 February 2013• Focus placed on evidence to support issues identified, particularly

current demand (internal and external)• Central Support Team - Provide OR and Lean capabilities but work

with local teams in situ to develop their understanding and ownership of data

• Scientific Demand Modelling - Data for modelling Response from Storm (Emergencies, Priorities and Standards)

• Less Scientific - Significant number of Response additional tasks that were not recorded, including proportion of time spent

Bringing OR to the FrontlineSupporting the Local Policing Review

Response Modelling Approach• First attempt at modelling ‘Response’ since 2008• Divisions provided with a single table of data showing team sizes

and model output• Use of Process Evolution’s Response Modeller

• Analysis of 1.5 million lines of incident data• All activity between ‘Code 5’ and ‘Code 2’• Analysis of data is time consuming, however gives the most useful

insight – would divisions benefit more from this insight rather than the overall results?

Bringing OR to the Frontline

Bringing OR to the Frontline

Bringing OR to the Frontline

Bringing OR to the Frontline

Bringing OR to the Frontline

Bringing OR to the Frontline

Bringing OR to the FrontlineSupporting the Local Policing Review

Additional Activities• Workshops with a cross-section of Response Officers to

determine list of additional activities• Development of a ‘Survey Monkey’ form Sent to every Response

Officer in the Force• Detailed activities identified and estimation of time spent on

these activities over an average year• Provided the data to inform time spent on these activities used in

conjunction with calculator – all divisions similar• Can be used to assess impact of any proposed demand / activity

reductions e.g. Escort for Mental Health • Survey Monkey developed in the same way for Neighbourhoods

and CID (Investigations)• Supported by Process Mapping and Analysis within the Divisions

Bringing OR to the FrontlineSupporting the Local Policing Review

Bringing OR to the FrontlineSupporting the Local Policing Review

Disseminating the work• Workshop with Local Teams to ‘train’ them in the use of the

Response Calculator and help them understand Additional Task data

• Additional Response Calculator Functionality introduced for Local Teams

• Outcome - Widespread use of Divisional Models by the Local Teams - using to understand demand, potential for demand reduction, use of resources to meet demand, most appropriate shift patterns to align resources to demand etc.

Evolution of Custody – Phase 0-3

Bringing OR to the Frontline

Phase 0 - Origins• West Yorkshire Police Authority obligation to achieve

‘Best Value’- October 2005• ‘Safer detention and handling of persons in police

custody’ doctrine - Early 2006• Recommended improvements to the current structure

to increase operational effectiveness and processes for arrest and detention

Phase 0 - Custody 2005

Phase 0 - What were the objectives?• Directive to reduce the number of custody suites• Insufficient cells

– 13 suites, 239 cells – Sufficient cells, wrong locations?

• Projected throughput growth of 10% per year– 125,000 detainees

• Inadequate staffing profile– 110 Custody Sergeants & 160 Detention Officers

• Inefficient processes

• 12 months to develop model and solutions

Phase 0 - What were the challenges?‘Hard Cell’

– Gathering data– Activity analysis– Process complexities– Getting the model to work

‘Hard Sell’– Resistance to change– Confidence in underlying data– Credibility of methodology / level of detail

Phase 0 - How was the model used?• Scenario testing• Reduction of custody suites• Reduction of custody staffing• Alter ratio of Detention Officers and Sergeants • Process led design - impact on arresting officers• Number of cells required collectively and individually• Provide assistance to other forces

Phase 1 - Origins

• Government Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) savings requirement of £137million by 2016/17

• Pilot for Priority Based Budgeting (PBB) methodology

Phase 1 - Custody 2011

Phase 1 - What were the objectives?• Directive to reduce the custody budget• Too many cells

– 10 suites, 239 cells • Projected throughput fall of 10% per year

– 105,000 detainees• Inadequate staffing levels

– 69 Custody Sergeants & 220 Detention Officers• Financially inefficient processes

• 3-4 months to present findings for a panel decision

Phase 1 - What were the challenges?‘Hard Cell’

– Gathering data now more easily accessible– Activity analysis no longer needed– Process complexities removed or simplified– Getting the model to work left to the NPIA

‘Hard Sell’– Much less resistance to change– Increased confidence in underlying data– Acceptance of methodology / level of detail

Phase 1 - How was the model used?• Numerous scenario testing• No reduction of custody suites• Significant reduction of custody staffing• Alter ratio of Detention Officers and Sergeants to

throughput• Process already lean

Phase 2 - Origins

• Government Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) savings requirement of £137million by 2016/17

Phase 2 - What are the objectives?• Directive to further reduce the custody budget• Too many suites?

– 9 suites, 252 cells• Continued projected throughput fall of at least 10%

per year?– 85,000 detainees

• Lean staffing levels?– 58 Police Officers & 176 Detention Officers

• 1 month to present initial findings

Phase 2 - Custody 2013

Phase 2 - What are the challenges?‘Hard Cell’

– Easy pickings have already been realised

‘Hard Sell’– Significant time constraints– Competing reviews

Phase 2 - How was the model used?• ‘Out of the box’ scenario testing• Potential reduction of custody suites?• Further reduction of custody staffing?

Conclusion• Leadership increasingly seeking:

• ‘Evidence based’ decisions• Greater involvement, ownership and

acceptance of analysis • Quick solutions

• We can retain integrity of OR ‘science’ within complex specialist models without losing their value to the manager who can understand and act on them

Martin RahmanDonna Tranter

David FitzgeraldOrganisational Development

West Yorkshire Police

Any Questions?