midland research grain pricing and 2020 central illinois ... · group 2020 central illinois crop...
Post on 20-Aug-2020
5 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
August 6 | 2016
The PRICE Futures
Group
2020 Central Illinois Crop Tour
Jerry Gidel and Jack Scoville
August 2, 2020
Trading. Investments. Advice.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOURMidland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Like many things, 2020 Crop Tour was changed up.
Jerry Gidel & Jack Scoville split up and took two
routes to cover our normal Central Illinois counties.
Jerry took the I-55 corridor to McLean County while
Jack drove the I-57 route to Dewitt County
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Gidel’s first stop was south of Mazon in Grundy County on IL
47. However, this double row planted field turned into head
scratchier on how to determine ear counts so we moved on.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOURMidland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Just a few miles south, Gidel found a field with a
its own weather station. He made his first ear, row
and kernel counts on 1/1000 of an acre for yield.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Despite a modest ear count of 27,000/acre, the
strongest row count (18) & 2nd longest kernel length
(44.5) of the tour produced our 2nd highest yield.
Estimated Yield – 254.9 bu.
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Sample #1
.
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Our next stop was in Livingston County. This late April-early
May field was 8 miles west of Pontiac on IL 116. Plant height
was shorter, but dried silks suggested earlier planting date. .
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOURMidland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Sample #2
This crop was in late dough stage with a 30,000/acre ear count. However, this field had the lowest row count at 14 & its kernel length dropped back to the trip’s average 39.6 kernels.
Estimated Yield – 195.4 bu.
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Soybeans’ clean carpet was this year’s norm with 10% or less
having weeds or volunteer corn. However, the crop appeared
to be shorter than normal and was generally just blooming.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Continuing to travel
west on IL 116 into
Woodford County, Gidel
turn south on I-39
before turning west on
US 24. After 3 miles, he
found this reminder of
2019’s late planted crop
with virtually white silks.
This is a sign to keep
looking for a more
mature field since you
won’t have anything to
count. .
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Interestingly, the field across the road was likely planted in late
April or early May before cold & wet weather kept planters out
until month’s end. This might have hurt plant emergence, thou.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Our Woodford County field had a slightly higher row count of 16.5 vs 16 average, but its 27,000 ears and kernel length of 38.3 held its yield back. The blister ear from the other field isn‘t something to use to make a yield count.
Estimated Yield – 200.3 bu.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Sample #3
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
After driving around Bloomington, we turned on US 51 to our
next corn stop about 5 mile south of I-74 in Central McLean
County. Some grasshopper damage on silks was evident.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
This field just off US 51 west of Randolph in McLean County had our first sign of tip back. This Milk/Early Dough corn had the 2nd lowest kernel length of 36.5 and only a 27,000 earcount and kernel length of 35.3. Rows around averaged 17 resulting in just another solid yield.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Sample #4
Estimated Yield – 196.8 bu.
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
2020’s strong green color suggested big yields from the road.
However, our 2 row ear counts averaged 27,800/acre for the
trip vs. 30,900 in 2019. Blanks & nubbins hurt counts.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
This late March field in SC McLean County had numerous pods
on its stems. Given the various row spacing, the USDA counts 10
by 10 feet plots for plants & yield counts.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
This field has great potential, but soybeans don’t offer
an easy approach to measure seed size and pod
numbers for yields. August rains & temperatures will
determine how the US & IL crops finish again in 2020.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Jack Scoville took the I-57 route South out of Chicago. His first
stop was in Iroquois County. He was on IL 49 when he stopped
for a yield check 3-4 miles south of the Kankakee County Line.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CORN TOUR
In a county with an erratic crop tour history because of weather, a solid field check surfaced. Kernel length was strong at 39.2 while its row count was near average at 15.8. However, this field’s 25,500 ear count was 2nd lowest taking the top off the yield.
Estimated Yield – 186.0 bu.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Sample #5
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Taking IL 54 south into Ford County, this field a few miles
south of Roberts looked encouraging. However, the view
from the road was deceiving. Emergence problems hurt this
field’s ear level resulting in only a 21,500/acre sample count.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CORN TOUR
This field sample had a strong ear length of 38.6 Kernels and an average row count of 16, but its poor ear number of 21,500/acre (the lowest of the crop tour) produced the lowest yield of our 2020 trip.
Estimated Yield – 156.2 bu.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Sample #6
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
On Jack’s crop tour of East Central IL, he also saw impressively
clean soybean fields. He did note the crop’s modest height could
be problematic if weather doesn’t promote better August growth.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Processing down IL 54, Jack stopped at this field 2 miles north
of Bellflower in SE McLean County. It also looked promising
given it dark green color, but its ear length limited its yield.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
This stop 2 miles north of Bellflower in McLean County on IL 54 had our best ear count of 33,000. However, it also had the lowest row & kernel length of the trip at 15 and 35 projecting just a solid yield vs. a big yield.
Estimated Yield – 204.4 bu.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Sample #7
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Jack continued his trip down IL 54 into DeWitt County seeing
dark green fields out his window. The final stop of his trip near
Farmer City looked promising again.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
His DeWitt County field stop was impressive producing the highest yield of the tour. This sample had the highest kernel (45) length & 2nd highest ear count (31,500) with just an average row count of 16. It has a bit of tip back, too.
Estimated Yield – 266.8 bu.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Sample #8
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
While traveling back to Chicago, Gidel found this field in Ford
County impacted by this summer’s hefty Midwest winds.
Pollination and harvesting issues will hurt its yield, but not
known until fall.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
No sign of this type of dryness on our C. Illinois crop tour this year,
but August’s weather remains important to both the US & Illinois
corn and soybean yields. (Iowa?) A crop’s final test weight and
seed fill is impacted by weather until harvest.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
This year’s C. Illinois crop tour was again a hectic one-day trip to make 8 field stops in the counties surrounding. Bloomington, IL. 2020’s average corn yield returned to low 200’s, but this year’s 3 less ear count isn’t something you will see driving by the dark green fields.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Because of our tour relative relationship to Illinois’ past August
average yield, a 10 bu. lower state yield is our estimate. Using
current ratings & past Major states’ yields, our US yield is 177.5 bu.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOUR
Given the importance of August weather to soybean yields & the stage of growth (blooming), we don’t make field checks on our tour. However, the visual picture looks perfect from the car window even if a bit short. Keep tuned to the Midwest weather.
Midland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable
for everyone. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate and as a result, clients
may lose more than their original investment. In no event should the content in this
presentation be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee, or implication
by or from The PRICE Futures Group, Inc. that you will profit or that losses can or will
be limited whatsoever. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information
provided in this presentation is intended solely for informative purpose and is
obtained from sources believed to be reliable. No guarantee of any kind is implied or
possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you,
and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading,
you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you
understand the risks and can withstand the losses.
Opinions, market data and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Charts
are developed by the author from USDA, other public data and proprietary models
unless otherwise noted & credited.
CENTRAL ILLINOIS CROP TOURMidland Research
Grain Pricing and
Forecasts
top related