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MODELING
HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL
SYSTEMS IN
TRANSBOUNDARY
REGIONS
ASHLEY PAGE
• Introduction: System dynamics modeling
• Background: Hydrologic-social system research
• Summary: NM WRRI research team efforts
• Applications: Modeling for transboundary regions
PRESENTATION STRUCTURE 2
The purpose of a system dynamics study is to understand the causes of a dynamic problem, and
search for the policies that alleviate/eliminate them.
SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING 3
(BARLAS, 2002)
4SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING, continued
Discovery
• Created by Jay Forester in the 1950s
Strengths
• Understanding nonlinear behavior
• Complex systems
(MIT Sloan School of Management, 2008)
Background
• Malin Falkenmark in 1979
• Resurgence in recent years
• Potential for transboundary regions
• (Blair and Buytaert, 2016)
5HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL RESEARCH
(Stockholm International Water Institute, 2018)
HYDROLOGIC-SOCIAL MODELING OF
TRANSBOUNDARY REGIONS
6
A system dynamics approach
allows for the analysis of:
• separate, yet intrinsically
connected decision-making
analysis
• connected hydrologic system
• unintended consequences
(Torres, 2017)
• Sam Fernald, Director
• Transboundary research region:
• Mesilla Basin
• Research interests:
• Surface water-groundwater interactions
• Watershed management effects on runoff and water quality
• Water and society
• Transboundary water management
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: afernald@nmsu.edu
7
• Saeed Langarudi, Post-Doctoral Research Scientist
• Transboundary research region:
• Mesilla Basin
• Research interests:
• Natural resources management
• Political economy
• Public policy
• Development economics
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: lang@nmsu.edu
8
• Babak Bahaddin, Graduate Researcher
• Transboundary research region:
• Mesilla Basin
• Research interests:
• Archetypes and generic structures in water resources management
• Socio-economic feedback loops in water systems
• Dynamic mechanisms for closed surface and groundwater systems
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: babak@nmsu.edu
9
• Yining Bai, Graduate Research Assistant
• Transboundary research region:
• Mesilla Basin
• Research interests:
• Regional groundwater resilience
• Agricultural water usage
• Efficiency of natural resource storage
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: ynb@nmsu.edu
10
• Connie Maxwell, Graduate Research Assistant
• Transboundary research regions: Mesilla Valley and Hatch Valley
• Research interests:
• Watershed restoration (multi-functional benefits, including flood mitigation)
• Stormwater harvesting (mitigation of flood energy and aquifer recharge)
• Community collaboration (working to develop NM WRRI’s Water and Community Collaboration Lab)
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: alamosa@nmsu.edu
11
• Ahmed Mashaly, Graduate Research Assistant
• Transboundary research region:
• Southern New Mexico
• Research interests:
• Water-Energy Nexus
• Implications of water and energy interactions
• Analysis of integrated water and energy management
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH
Contact: amashaly@nmsu.edu
12
• Langarudi, Saeed, Ashley Page, Connie Maxwell, Yining Bai, Babak Bahaddin, and Alexander Fernald. 2019. “System-Wide Policy Solutions for Water Issues.” Submitted to the 37th International System Dynamics Conference. Albuquerque, NM: System Dynamics Society.
• A. Page, S. P. Langarudi, S. Forster-Cox, and A. Fernald. A Dynamic HydroSocio-Technical Policy Analysis of Transboundary Desalination Development. Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management, 7(1):87– 114, 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.5890/JEAM.2019.3.007.
• Langarudi, Saeed P., Connie M. Maxwell, Yining Bai, Austin Hanson, and Alexander Fernald. 2019. “Does Socioeconomic Feedback Matter for Water Models?” Ecological Economics 159 (May): 35–45.
• Bai, Yining, Saeed P. Langarudi, and Alexander Fernald. 2017. “Long-Term Dynamics of AcequiaPopulation in New Mexico.” In 35th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Cambridge, MA.
• Langarudi, Saeed P., and Carlos G. Silva. 2017. “Crop Price Volatility and Its Influence on Crop Patterns.” In Proceedings of the 2017 International Conference of The Computational Social Science Society of the Americas, 4:1–4:10. CSS 2017. New York, NY.
NM WRRI SYSTEM DYNAMICS RESEARCH 13
MESILLA BASIN HYDRO-SOCIAL
TRANSBOUNDARY RESEARCH
Research: Evaluating Policy and Management Instabilities in the
Transboundary Mesilla Basin Hydro-Social System to Rectify Public
Health Concerns
(El Paso Times, 2017)
Ashley Page, Sam Fernald, Saeed Langarudi, Sue Forster-Cox, Humaira Rahman
14
• A Dynamic Hydro-Socio-
Technical Policy Analysis
of Transboundary
Desalination
Development
Focus groups
• Key findings
• Cost
• Reform
• Quality
• Need for
further
research
PREVIOUS RESEARCH
Created by Robert Sabie Jr., NM WRRI
15
System Dynamics model
• Hydrologic-social analysis to investigate
the systematic instabilities that create a
gap between the expressed health
needs of the community and their
rectification
• Focus on the feedbacks between the
hydrologic and social system
• Analysis of unintended consequences
RESEARCH COMPONENTS 16
RESEARCH COMPONENTS
Hydrologic components
Public health components
Policy decision-making components
17
Community
• Meeting to discuss results from
previous focus group
• Receive updated feedback regarding
their water-related and action concerns
Public Health
• Investigate the impact of arsenic
contamination on the health of the
community
RESEARCH COMPONENTS,
continued
18
Ashley Page
apage@nmsu.edu
CONTACT 19
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