modernisation et croissance de la russie: l'enjeu de la reconversion des monovilles
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01/05/2023
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Restructuring monocities as a lever of paradigm shift towards iconomics for Russian economy
Claude Rochet
Professeur des universités
LAREQUOI Université de Versailles Saint Quentin-en-YvelinesClaude.rochet@univ-amu.fr
Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
2Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not
Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach
us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
01/05/2023
3Summary
What kind of city can pretend to be smart and why Russian monocities may not
Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach
us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
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Top down mono functional cityTogliatti (Russia):
Monocities have turned to be an obstacle to growth in Russia, representing up to 31% GDP.
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
Monocities= specialization in decreasing returns activities
Decreasing returns due to specialization in primary activities and localization in remote places
• 335 mono villes (31% des villes)
• 16 Mons hab. (25% pop. Urbaine)
• Taux urbanisation: 75%
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What a smart city can’t be A collection of « smarties » A techno centric city A city without past
= EU ideology!
A deterministic system
Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
Smart city = Integrated complex system
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
7 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What the smart cities from the past can teach
us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
8Cities scaling laws
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
Densité
Pote
ntie
l d’
inte
rcon
nexi
ons
Y=x2 Loi de Metcalfe
But…..
Distance
Inte
rcon
nexi
ons
réel
les Lois de Von Thünen Tobler
Exte
rnal
ités +
et _
Taille
But…..
TailleNo
mbr
e de
ville
sLois de Marshall West Bettencourt
Lois de Zipf
Combining these laws:
01/05/2023Size x Number of cities
Conn
ectio
ns x
wea
lth
New town
Clustering medium size cities
New townDefining the perimeter and the« in and out » interrelations of the system is a key issue in cities’system design
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
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Good and bad complexity
At a certain point growing complexity produces more negative than positive externalities and become unmonitorable
Bad complexityGood complexity
Growing size
Grow
ing
com
plex
ity
E. g. Detroit, Russian monocities…
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
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A (really) smart city is an emerging ecosystem
Smart city framework= A great number of interactions between people x connected objects whose quantity and speed is in dramatic increase at date.
The behavior of a system is predictable when the sequence of transitions from one state to another can be described.
Emergence takes place when the space of possible states or rules of transitions change: the city can’t be described by the model that described it until then. (Heylighen & Joslyn 1991)
Modeling emergence implies:1. Mapping the properties, desirable an undesirable, the system can
take. 2. The values attached to theses properties in a precise context.
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A smart city is an integration of two kinds of systems
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Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
Hard systems may be modeled thanks to the laws of physics (conservative systems)
Soft systems can’t be modeled with the laws of physics (dissipative systems)
- Social sciences- Big data- Autopoeisis
- Multi-agents modeling
The key of the success is here…
… while business is there
Politics must prevail on a bottom up basis
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
13 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past
teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
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Middle age cities were smart: organic development, common good, synergies between economic activities
Common good
Vivere politico
Economic welfare
Pivate good
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
15Direct democracy was at the root of the city life and its organic evolution
Novogorod veche
Новгоро́дская респу́блика вече
01/05/2023
16Middle Age cities grew on an organic planning basis
« Organic planning does not begin with a preconceived goal; it moves from need to need, from opportunity to opportunity, in a series of adaptations that themselves become increasingly coherent and purposeful, so that they generate a complex final design, hardly less unified than a pre-formed geometric pattern. »
Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
17 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past
teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
01/05/2023
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Urban dynamics: from neo cybernetics to autopeosis
First order cybernetics (Forrester): The city as a self regulating system… ... Or a super command and control machinery (Rio)
The 2nd order of cybernetics includes autopoeisis of human dissipative systems
The complexity of the city is a combination of several laws
There is a positive correlation between growth of the city size and its complexity....
... But there is a good and a bad complexitySéminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
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A quasi zero order cybernetics unable to self regulate
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
20First order cybernetics city
The myth of the super mind and perfect control
IBM at Rio do Janeiro
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21Autopoeisis: Why and How?
An autopoeitic system is “”a network of processes of production (transformation and destruction) of components which: (i) through their interactions and transformations continuously regenerate and realize the network of processes that produced them; and (ii) constitute it as a concrete unity in space in which they (the components) exist by specifying the topological domain of its realization as such a network.” H. Maturana
Autopoeisis is a property of human dissipative system: strong entropy and correlative capabilities to reproduce itself permanently thanks to its internal interactionsSéminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
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Autopoeisis: Why and How? Autopoeisis makes the system able to face
with the rapid changing of the environment: “This generalized view of autopoiesis
considers systems as self-producing not in terms of their physical components, but in terms of its organization, which can be measured in terms of information and complexity. In other words, we can describe autopoietic systems as those producing more of their own complexity than the one produced by their environment".
C. Gershenson
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
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Autopeoietic system integration works bottom-up based on “ordinary actions of the people”
NO! An evolutionary process
Integration process is bottom-up…… based on ordinary interactions
We must understand how ordinary people behave
Q: Is there an architect with a master plan?
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
24 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past
teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and
bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
Strategic Analysis
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Why building a city & what are the strategic goals?
Who are the stakeholders?
What are the generic functions to be performed
by a smart city?
With which organs? Technical devices, software…
With which smart people?
Conception, metamodel framework, steering
Subsystems and processes
People and tools
Why designing this ecosystem?Who will live in the city?What are its activities?
How the city will be fed?Where the city is located ? (context)
What are the functions to be performed to reach the goals and how
do they interact?
With which organs and ressources?
How people will interact with the artifacts?
How civic life will organize?
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Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (1)
Economy: An economic structure based on synergies of economics activities
is the condition to wealth creation which reinforces itself through interaction of a political power based on the Common Good (Reinert, 2006, Rochet, 2012)
FFF (Failed, Fragile and Failing states) : The missing link is related to the lack of increasing returns based on « coopetitive » diffusion of means (…) productive governance often enforces the development sustainable productive structures based usually on a participatory system.
“State failure an fragility are often preceded, or at least accompanied, by failure and fragility of cities” (Reinert & Kattel, 2009)
“The more the participatory system is closed to democracy and shared economic growth with special focus on health, education and communication infrastructure building, more quickly the divergence between countries narrow down.» (Reinert &Kattel, 2009)
Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
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Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (2)
Resilience: A smart city is a highly internally connected facing with
a turbulent environment, that challenges its resilience. Strong social capabilities enforces the autopoeitic
properties of the system, and consequently its resilience.
E.g. Christchurch (NZ)
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Why do we need strong citizen based interactions within a system? (3)
Citizen is at the interface of technological devices which consume and produce data (e.g. The smart phone)
The frontier between production and consumption is blurred more than in other cases of information economy (McLuhan)
In a rapid innovative system the citizen is a lead user of the innovation process (Von Hippel).
The power of these technical systems requires strong political control to be both fully efficient and not becoming the level of a totalitarian system (Simondon).Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
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Direct democracy has a strong record in the management of cities and complex systems
Schumpeterian economics correlates synergies between activities, political freedom and common weal.
Traditional decision making system may help modeling a resilient human system e.g: ongoing research project of modeling an eco-efficient drinking water network in Angola with the palaver tree
30The false green cities
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Integrating imported pollution, energy waste…. produced by a dysfunctional ecosystem
Is the city really green? The worst case: Paris
socio-ethnic greenwashing
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
31The perfectly integrated smart city: Singapore
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
32Singapore vs. Norilsk
Common features: Unhealthy and hostile climate, no reason for existing except a political will, no natural assets, no industry, no initial social capital…
Depressing monoindustry A city thought from the beginning as a smart nation
01/05/2023
33New paradigms in public decision making
Polycentric governance (Ostrom): deciding in small units on a large scale
Bottom up decision processes : e.g. Michael Batty modeling decision process as a Markov chains to bring back the city in a ergodic state
Large deliberative upfront processes reduce uncertainty e.g. The Parable of the Hare and the Tortoise: Small Worlds, Diversity, and System Performance (Lazer & Friedman 2005)
« In short, cities are more like biological than mechanical systems. The rise of the sciences of complexity, which have changed the direction of system theory from top down to the bottom-up is one that treats such systems as open, based more on the product of an evolutionary process than a grand design » Michael Batty « A new Science of Cities » 2015
Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
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A paradoxical research question:Can we conceive the gov’t of a city that should not need a government?
At date, if we assume the benchmark of a smart city is Singapore, it’s not really a democracy.
At date, we don’t know large system that have developped spontaneously self organizing properties .
Rules, as a genetic code of an ecosystem, are the result of a long term learning process: Cf. biomimicry
A Machiavellian approach: The Prince is to fix the good institution from the top down giving the citizens the rights to challenge the power of the few in charge.
We have a lot of reference of direct democracy experiences, how they were born, how they died.
01/05/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
35 Summary What kind of city can pretend to be smart and
why Russian monocities may not Physics of city What does the smart cities from the past
teach us? Towards an organic and sustainable
innovating city Methodology and examples (good and bad) Proposal of a road map for Russia
Smart cities and paradigm shift in Russia towards iconomy
05/01/2023Séminaire franco-russe d'économie EHESS Paris Septembre 2016
Training of actors,
Knowledge transfer to SME
Smart Cities Pilot Projects
Social capabilities
improvement
System modeling and
integration capacities
Investments and reference
realizations
Territories development
Technology transfer
Absorptive capacities
Organic development
R&DActions Realizations Strategic assets
Autopoeisis
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Merci!
26/01/201637
Thank you!
Спасибо
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