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2014 Election Updates & Insights
NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and analysis on
candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact North Carolina’s political landscape.
Joe Stewart Executive Director
jstewart@ncfef.org (919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF
2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
! CVB = voters partisan disposition based on statewide races 2008 - 2014.
! This is the voter party-preference
topographical map of NC
! Suburbs full of ‘swingers’
! Other factors: age (esp. Millennials), ethnicity, gender, nativity
Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance
MECK WAKE
2012
Obama 60.8% 54.5%
Romney 38.3% 44.2%
2000
Gore 48.2% 46.0%
Bush 51.0% 53.1%
1988
Dukakis 40.2% 42.8%
Bush 59.4% 56.9%
Year NC
Population Growth
2010 9,535,475
2014 9,943,964 +408,489
MECK WAKE
2010 919,628 900,993
2014 1,012,539 998,691
INCREASE +92,911 +97,698
NC Counties with Population Loss, 2010-2014
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
NC Population Growth Not Even 49 NC counties have lost population since 2010
(2014 Census Bureau Data)
Party Identification, 1939-2015 (Gallup)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
39
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Dem % Rep % Indep %
New Deal Democratic Coalition
Realignment Dealignment Coalition Country
Dr. Michael Bitzer Catawba College
Estimated NC Voter Reg by Generation
2% 4%
8% 10%
16% 18%
24%
26% 27%
22% 23% 25% 25% 26% 26% 25%
25% 27%
45% 43%
41% 40%
36% 35% 33%
32% 33%
31% 29%
26% 25%
22% 21% 18% 17%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Oct-15
Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer Silent
Dr. Michael Bitzer Catawba College
North Carolina 2016 Election Dynamics
! President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT of political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout?
! Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68%
! Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play
! Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike their party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters.
! March 15, 2016 Primary (Candidate Filing in December 2015)
! Watch for GOP v GOP Primaries (Establishment v Tea Party)
To win North Carolina, the Democratic nominee must re-create the Obama coalition from 2008
Usual Democratic Voters + Suburban Swingers + Voters <30 yo
To win the election, GOP nominee must win NC
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: President
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: US Senate
! Rated among vulnerable GOP incumbents
! NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive
! 2016 = $200+ million in outside spending
! Suburbs = battleground
! Do Democrats get an A List candidate?
! NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive
! Suburbs = battleground
! 2016 = $100+ million in outside spending
! Likely to get ugly quick
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch
! Voter attitude (NC influenced by
‘national attitude’)
! Outside money
! Who best reaches the
‘undecideds’ (Suburban
Swingers)
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Factors to Watch
! Functioning Democratic Party?
! Factional fighting within GOP
! Perceptions of economy and
accomplishments will shape
voter attitudes on incumbents
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