moscow state university p.p.shirshov institute of oceanology, ras, moscow

Ocean’s Role in the Ocean’s Role in the Stratosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere Troposphere InteractionInteraction

Yulia A. Zyulyaeva

Moscow State UniversityP.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow

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StratospStratospherehere

11-year solar cycle

TroposphTroposphereere

Polar Night Jet

Planetary Waves

QBQBOO

)(

2sin2

1sin2

)(

2sin2

1

)(

2sin2

1

cos

2

0

T

aTv

S

u

avu

v

av

p

pFs

TvS

vuF sin2

Eliassen-Palm Flux – capturing Eliassen-Palm Flux – capturing the impact of planetary waves the impact of planetary waves onto the mean flowonto the mean flow

As proposed by Eliassen and Palm (1961)1

As proposed by Plumb (1985)2

If zonal averages are taken

sF

F

reduces to the

1) Eliassen, A. and E. Palm,1961: On the transfer of energy in stationary mountain waves. Geofys. Publ., No. 3, 1-232) Plumb, R.A., 1985: On the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 217-229

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Fvft

u

*

Wind deceleration is found to be large in the neighborhood of large negative values of divergence1

Monthly mean

From NCEP/NCAR Reanlaysis datasets

•Geopotential heights,

•Air temperature,

•Wind From Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets

•SST

We analyze 49 Winter Seasons : November –

March1958/1959 – 2010/2011

Used Used DataData

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3D Eliassen-Palm Flux at 3D Eliassen-Palm Flux at 30hPa30hPa

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Arrows - horizontal component, contours - vertical x10-5 m2/s2

December 1975

December 1976Before SSW (major event) in January 1977Before SSW (major event) in January 1977

ClimatologyClimatology49-year mean z-component of the EP Flux49-year mean z-component of the EP Flux

DecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarch

(x10-5 m2/s2)

Negative valuesNegative values

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EPEPzz -Flux and U-wind anomalies for -Flux and U-wind anomalies for

30hPa30hPa December – January December – January 1 month lag 1 month lag PRECONDITIONSPRECONDITIONS

1st EOF for U30 46% PNJ

1st EOF for Fz 43%

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Correlation -0,58 Correlation -0,58 PC for U30 with the opposite sign

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Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Nov -0.44 -0.47 -0.26 -0.05 0.15

Dec -0.06 -0.29 -0.58 -0.27 -0.04

Jan 0.03 -0.09 -0.12 0.04 0.12

Feb 0.16 0.21 0.47 0.38 0.06

Mar 0.26 0.32 0.14 0.35 -0.13

EPEPzz-Flux and U-wind -Flux and U-wind anomaliesanomalies

U-wind 30hPa

Correlation coefficient: PC of the 1st EOF of EP-flux (z-component) and PC of the 1st EOF of zonal wind at 30hPa

EP

z 30h

Pa

1. Karpetchko A., and G. Nikulin, Influence of early winter upward wave activity flux on midwinter circulationin the stratosphere and troposphere, J. Climate, 2004, vol. 17, pp. 4443-4452

2. Holton, J.R., Mass, C, 1976. Stratospheric vacillation cycles, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 2218-2225

Correlation Coefficient between Correlation Coefficient between Fz (60N, 45W) and UWND at Fz (60N, 45W) and UWND at 30hPa 30hPa

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January

February

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Zyulyaeva, Yu.A., Jadin, E.A., 2008. Analysis of three - dimensional Elliassen-Palm fluxesin the lower stratosphere, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, in press

Scheme of the upward and downward Scheme of the upward and downward

propagationpropagation

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Scheme of the upward and downward Scheme of the upward and downward

propagationpropagation

Zyulyaeva, Yu.A., Jadin, E.A., 2009. Analysis of three - dimensional Elliassen-Palm fluxesin the lower stratosphere, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology

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-0,58-0,72 -0,57

-0,26

Break of the Break of the “preconditions”“preconditions”

PCs for the 1st EOF of EPz-Flux for December and U-wind for January

1959-2007

Correlation Coefficient between QBO 30hPa (UWND 2.5N, 102.5E) and UWND 30hPa for period 1959 - 2007 (January - January) 95% - 0.24

WWest (est (EEast)ast) QBQBO > O > Strong (weak) Strong (weak) PVPV in in the Arcticthe Arctic

1959-1979

Holton, J.R., Tan, H.C., 1980. The influence of the equatorial quasi - biennial oscillation on the global circulation at 50 mb, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 37, 2200-2208.

1980-2000

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1947 – 1976 “COOL PDO”

1977 – mid-1990’s “WARM PDO”

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The Pacific Decadal The Pacific Decadal OscillationOscillation

1st EOF for SST

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PCs for the 1st EOF of SST

Relations between EPRelations between EPzz-Flux and SST -Flux and SST anomalies anomalies December - DecemberDecember - December

1st EOF for Fz

PCs for the 1st EOF of SST and Fz

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0,65 0,620,11

1st EOF for SST

Evgeny A. Jadin, Ke Wei, Yulia A. Zyulyaeva, Wen Chen, Lin Wang, Stratospheric wave activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 72 (2010) 1163–1170

Conclusions Conclusions (1)(1)

1.3D EP-Flux shows significant longitudinal asymmetry

2.Strong/weak penetration of planetary waves into the stratosphere in December precedes to the major SSW/Ex. Cold events in January

3.No significant trends of 3D EP-Fluxes were indicated during the wintertime 1958-2007 (not shown)

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1. The mechanism connected with the thermal excitation of planetary waves by the SST anomalies in the North Pacific in the early winter and a downward propagation in the late winter in the North Atlantic region (“stratospheric bridge”) is proposed

2. Are there relations between the SSTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic and the stratospheric bridge in late winter or the 11-year solar cycle modulates the downward wave signal in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere?

Conclusions Conclusions (2)(2)

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THANK YOU THANK YOU

FOR YOUR ATTENTIONFOR YOUR ATTENTION

K. Labitzke 1982, On the Interannual K. Labitzke 1982, On the Interannual Variability of the Middle Stratosphere during Variability of the Middle Stratosphere during

the Northern Wintersthe Northern Winters

Relations between z-component of EP-FluxRelations between z-component of EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomalies in Decemberand zonal wind anomalies in December

1st EOF for Fz

51%

1st EOF for Fz

62%

Correlation 0,13Correlation 0,13

Correlation -0,58Correlation -0,58

-0,72-0,72 -0,31-0,31 -0,57-0,57

Relations between z-component of EP-FluxRelations between z-component of EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomalies and zonal wind anomalies December - JanuaryDecember - January

1st EOF for Fz

51%

1st EOF for U30

46%

)(

2sin2

1sin2

)(

2sin2

1

)(

2sin2

1

cos

2

0

T

aTv

S

u

avu

v

av

p

pFs

Contribution of the Second TermContribution of the Second Term

11stst EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux EOF for z-component of the EP-FluxDecember(1958-2006) 43.3%

January(1959-2007)30.8%

February(1959-2007)38.0%

March(1959-2007)49.0%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-2-10123

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-2

0

2

4

6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-2-10123

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-2-10123

PC of 1PC of 1stst EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux

43.3% for December (1958-2006)

30.8%for January (1959-2007)

38.0%for February (1959-2007)

49.0%for March (1959-2007)

4) Hu, Y., and K.K. Tung, 2003: Possible ozone-induced long-term changes in planetary wave activity in late winter. J. Climate, 16, 3027-3038.

No Significant Trends!

2005

January February

Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Z-component of the EP Flux Z-component of the EP Flux

for for Warm Vortex YearsWarm Vortex Years (x10-5 m2/s2)

January February

Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Z-component of the EP Flux Z-component of the EP Flux

for for Cold Vortex YearsCold Vortex Years (x10-5 m2/s2)

1959,1967,1969,1970,1984,1986,2001 1966,1973,1979,1980,1984,1989,1999,2001

December January

Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Z-component of the EP Flux Z-component of the EP Flux

(x10-5 m2/s2)

3) Charlton, A.J. and L.M. Polvani, 2007: A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part I: Climatology and modeling benchmarks. J Climate, 20, 449-469.

11st st , 2, 2ndnd EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux January 1959-2004January 1959-2004

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

1PC Jan

+0.03 -0.09 -0.12 +0.04 0.12

2PCJan

+0.11 +0.04 +0.52 +0.33 0.00

36.9%

18.5%

EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux January 1959-2004January 1959-2004

18.5% 23.0%

Level 30hPa Level 700hPa

Stratospheric Sudden WarmingsStratospheric Sudden Warmings

January 1977

January 1976

sF

(x10-7m/s2)

3) Andrews, D.G., J.R. Holton and C.B. Leovy, 1987: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics. Academic Press, 489 pp.

Fvft

u

*Wind deceleration is found to be large in the neighborhood of large negative values of divergence1

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Nov -0.44 -0.47 -0.26 -0.05 0.15

Dec -0.06 -0.29 -0.58 -0.27 -0.04

Jan 0.03 -0.09 -0.12 0.04 0.12

Feb 0.16 0.21 0.47 0.38 0.06

Mar 0.26 0.32 0.14 0.35 -0.13

Relations between z-component of EP-FluxRelations between z-component of EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomaliesand zonal wind anomalies

U30

Fz

NegativeNegative

PositivePositivePC of the 1st EOF1959 - 2004

Correlation between PC of the 1st EOF of EP-flux (z-component) and PC of the 1st EOF of zonal wind anomalies at 30hPa

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Nov 0.18 -0.31 0.00 0.08 -0.02

Dec 0.18 0.33 0.06 -0.14 0.09

Jan -0.14 -0.04 0.04 -0.23 0.06

Feb -0.16 0.20 0.50 0.53 -0.14

Mar 0.10 0.22 -0.01 -0.07 0.21

Correlation between PC of the 1st EOF of the divergence of EP-flux and PC of the 1st EOF of zonal wind anomalies at 30hPa

Relations between divergence of the EP-FluxRelations between divergence of the EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomaliesand zonal wind anomalies

U30

sF