mro americas presentation 2013
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Unlocking the Power of Aviation Operations Data
MRO 2013 Presentation Quantifying utilization, turn time, and RON impact on departure reliability
Joshua Marks josh@masflight.com Mobile. +1 (703) 994-0000 4833 Rugby Avenue, Suite 301 Bethesda, Maryland 20814 www.masflight.com April 16, 2013
Reliability, schedules, and turn times have an impact on departure reliability and maintenance.
• Daily Utilization vs. On-Time Departures
• Differences in narrowbodies and widebodies
• Scheduling patterns
• Impact of red-eye flying
• Scheduled and actual turn times
Do the significant differences among U.S. carriers explain the differences in reliability?
Today’s Discussion
O V E R V I E W
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 2
C O M P A R I N G O T P A N D U T I L I Z A T I O N
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 3
72.7%
76.3%
78.0%
81.0%
81.9%
83.5%
85.8%
87.0%
89.9%
93.1%
94.1%
9.0
9.1
9.3
9.4
9.5
10.0
10.1
10.1
10.3
12.0
12.1
On-Time Departure Performance (within 15 minutes of schedule) January 2013 – System Ops
Daily Aircraft Utilization (hrs) (Based on total fleet sizes)
January 2013 – System Ops
Utilization correlates to on-time performance
U T I L I Z A T I O N V S . O T P
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 4
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
7 9 11 13 ON
TIM
E D
EPA
RTU
RE
PER
FOR
MA
NC
E
HOURS OF DAILY UTILIZATION
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0
Narrowbodies By Day of Week
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0
Widebodies by Day of Week
Daily Utilization vs. On-time Departures January 2013 System Operations
Correlation Coefficient -0.53
Includes AA, AC, AS, B6,
F9, FL, NK, UA, US, VX and WN
Prevalence of red-eyes D A I L Y S C H E D U L I N G P A T T E R N S
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 5
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
10a
11a
12p 1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
10p
11p-
5a
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
10a
11a
12p 1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
10p
11p-
5a
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
10a
11a
12p 1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
10p
11p-
5a
- 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
100.0 120.0
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
10a
11a
12p 1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
10p
11p-
5a
AA, UA, DL and US have similar exposure to red-eye operations
NORMALIZED DEPARTURES PER HOUR (LOCAL TIME) BY AIRLINE (JAN 2013)
D A I L Y S C H E D U L I N G P A T T E R N S
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 6
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
10a
11a
12p 1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
10p
11p-
5a -
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
10a
11a
12p 1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
10p
11p-
5a
- 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
100.0 120.0
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
10a
11a
12p 1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
10p
11p-
5a -
10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
10a
11a
12p 1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
10p
11p-
5a
Spirit and JetBlue have significant exposure to red-eye impact!
NORMALIZED DEPARTURES PER HOUR (LOCAL TIME) BY AIRLINE (JAN 2013)
Prevalence of red-eyes
0.9 1.2 1.6
4.1
6.3 6.7
9.1
13.2
15.7
-1.8
-0.4 -0.5
0.4 1.5
0.5 1.8 1.4
2.7
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Alaska US Air Virgin Delta American JetBlue United Frontier Spirit
DEP
AR
TUR
E D
ELAY
MIN
UTE
S
Redeye or Quick 2nd Turn
Remain Overnight
Red-Eyes Hurt OTD Performance I M P A C T O F R E D - E Y E F L Y I N G
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 7
Average departure delay minutes are significantly higher for red-eyes
Minutes of delay
Airlines Build Recovery into Gate Turn Times
P L A N N I N G F O R R E C O V E R Y
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
WN 737
B6 190
F9 320
AA M80
DL DC9
FL 717
NK 320
DL M90
DL M80
B6 320
DL 320
US 737
AS 737
AA 737
VX 320
FL 737
DL 737
US 320
UA 320
DL 757
UA 737
Min
utes
on
Gat
e
Scheduled Turn Time (Blue) vs. Average Actual Turn Time (Red) by Airline and Fleet, January 2013
Scheduled Time on Gate Additional Time Spent on Gate
Utilization, turns and on-time metrics
C O N C L U S I O N S
What are the key points observed?
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 9
UTILIZATION VS. OTP
There is a quantifiable link between daily utilization of a fleet
type and on-time performance
SCHEDULING PRACTICES
Carriers that schedule aggressive night flying operations leave little
time to “catch up”
RED-EYES HURT!
An aggressive red-eye schedule creates morning delays that create extended disruption
GATE TURNS
Airline turn times vary, but most carriers buffer additional gate time
into block plans to recover
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