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ျခငသးသပခက

This training material is the property of the IMF – Singapore Regional Training Institute (STI) and is intended for the use in STI courses. Any reuse requires the permission of the STI.

Jan Gottschalk

TAOLAM

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

2

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

I. တငးျပညစးပြားေရးမေဘာင

II. အသေပးစးပြားေရးမ၀ါဒဆးျဖတ ျခငး

အတြကေငြေရးေၾကးေရးဆငရာအစစဥ

ေရးဆြျခငး

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

4

ေငြေၾကးဆငရာမ၀ါဒမား

ႏငငျခားေငြေပးေငြယရငးတမး

ဘဏၰာေရးမ၀ါဒမား

လကေတြ႕စးပြားေရးက႑

က႑အလက ဆကစပမႈ

G; T

Monetary financing

ေငြတးႏႈနး / ေငြလႏႈနးCA=S-I

RM=NFA+NDc

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

5

REAL SECTOR

Private consumptionGeneral government consumption (Wages+Goods and services)

Private investmentGeneral government investment

Exports of goods and nonfactorservices

Imports of goods and nonfactorservices

National Accounts (local currency, flows)

EXTERNAL SECTOR

Balance of Payments (US Dollars, flows)

CURRENT ACCOUNTExports of goods and nonfactorservices

Imports of goods and nonfactorservices

Factor services (net)Transfers (net)

OfficialPrivate

CAPITAL ACCOUNTDirect investmentMedium/long-term capital (net)

Private sector (o/w banks)Centr. Government

Short-term capital (net)Private sector (o/w banks)Centr. Government

Overall balanceReserves (Change in net foreign assets)

GENERAL GOVERNMENT

Fiscal Accounts (local currency, flows)RevenuesGrants

ExpendituresCurrentCapital

Overall balanceFinancing

Domestic financing (net)Banking systemNonbanking sector

External financing (net)

Net foreign assets

Net domestic assets:Net credit to governemnt sectorCredit to banksOther items (net)

Reserve money CurrencyBanks reserves

Net foreign assets

Banks' reserves

Net domestic assets:Net credit to government sectorCredit to nongovernment sectorOther items (net)

Liabilities to monetaryauthorities

Private sector deposits

Monetary Authorities (local currency, stocks)

Deposit Money Banks (local currency, stocks)

MONETARY SECTOR

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

Πေစးႏႈနးေဖာငးပြျခငး

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

ေငြေၾကးအစစဥဆြရာတြင• လကရအေျခအေနႏင ခန႔

မနးခကမားက ေလလာျခငး• မ၀ါဒအတငးတာႏင သတ႔၏

အကးသကေရာကမႈက သတမတျခငး

• ထပခါတလလလပေဆာငျခငး

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

9

ျပးျပညစစြာခတဆကထားေသာစးပြားေရးမ၀ါဒမား

တငးျပညစးပြားေရးတညျငမျခငး

ယၾကညလကခႏငမႈ/ ေစးကြကေမာလငခက

တကရကရညရြယခက

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

က) အစအစဥ၏ရညရြယခက

ဂ) ေျပာငးလမႈမရေသာအစအစဥ

ခန႕မနးခကမား

ခ) မ၀ါဒအတငးအတာမား

ကြ ႏပတ႕ဘယေရာကေန

လ။

ကြ ႏပတ႕ ဘာလပႏငသလ။

အကးသကေရာကမႈ ဘာေတြလ။

ကြ ႏပတ႕လမးမနေရာကေနျပလား။

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

လကရတငးျပညစးပြားေရးအေျခအေနေပၚမတည အစပးျခငး• မေျပာငးလေသာ

မ၀ါဒေအာကတြငအေျခခခန႔မနးခကက ဖနတးျခငး

• မျပညစေသာသတငးက ဂရစကရမည : ယခငျဖစပကခေသာအပငးအစမားကသာျမငျပးအနာဂတခန႔မနးေျခသာျဖစသည။

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

ျပသာနာေပၚတြင မတညသည• ေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြျခငး �

၀ယလအားစမခန႔ခြမႈ

• ျပငပမညမျခငး � ၀ယလအားစမခန႔ခြမႈအေပါငးကနကစရတလလယျခငး မ၀ါဒ

• ရညလားေသာမညမျခငး �ဖြ႕စညးပစျပျပငေျပာငးလမႈ

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

၀ယလအားစမခန႕ခြျခငး

ဘဏၰာေရးမ၀ါဒ

ေငြးေၾကး မ၀ါဒ

ေငြေၾကးေခးေငြအတးႏႈနးေငြလႏႈနးေငြေၾကးေဖာငးပြမႈစသတမတခက

၀ငေငြ

အသးစရတ

ဘ႑ာေငြ

ရာၾကျခငး

အခြနႏႈနး

အခြနအေျခခ

အခြနစမခန႕ခြျခငး

စားသးမႈ

အတး

လႊေျပာငးမႈ

ရငးႏးျမႈပႏမႈ

ေငြစကရကထတျခငးအားျဖငအစးရမ ရရေသာအျမတေကြးျမ

အရ ေငြေၾကးလအပခကOMOsRediscountsFX ဖလယျခငး

13Dollarization

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

14

အသးစရတရတခညးေျပာငးလ

ျခငး

ေငြလႏႈနးမ၀ါဒ

၀ငေငြမ၀ါဒ

ကးသနးေရာငး၀ယေရးမ၀ါဒ

လပအားခမ၀ါဒ

ေစးႏႈနးမ၀ါဒ

စညးၾကပခြန

ခြတမး

ပ႔ကနျမငတငျခငး

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

15

ထတကနတးျမငျခငး

(ေရာငးလအားဖကျခမးမ၀ါဒမား)

သယဇာတခြေ၀မႈတးတကေကာငးမြနေအာငျပလပျခငး

ေစးႏႈနးျပနလညျပျပငျခငး

လပငနးစမကနးျပနလညျပျပငျခငး

ဘဏၰာေရးျပနလညျပျပငျခငး

ေငြေၾကးကဏၰျပနလညျပျပငျခငး

လပသားေစးကြကျပနလညျပျပငျခငး

ရပပငးဆငရာ ႏငလ႕စြမးအားအရငးအျမစ ရငးႏးျမႈပႏမႈ

တးျမငျခငး

ရငးႏးျမႈပႏမႈ အျမတအစြနးတးျမငျခငး

ထတလပႏငစြမးတးခ႕ျခငး

ကဏၰအလးစ၏ ထတလပမႈတးျမငျခငး

ေျမေလာျခငး

အခြနစနစ

ကနကစရတ ဖြ႕စညးမႈ

လမႈလျခေရးကြနယက

ေငြသားစမခန႕ခြမႈ(ေငြတက)

ဘဏမားကပဂလကျပလပျခငး၊ အရငးႏးထည

၀ငျပးၾကးၾကပျခငး

စေဆာငးေငြတးျမငျခငး

ေစးကြကစးပြားေရး

ကနးမာေရးႏငပညာေရး

အတးႏႈနး

ႏငငျခားတကရကရငးႏးျမႈပႏမႈ

ႏငငပငလပငနးျပနလညျပျပငျခငးကဏၰ

R & D, FDI

ရသးမနးေျခေငြစာရငးအခကခ

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

မ၀ါဒအကးသကေရာကမႈခြျခမးစတျဖာျခငးသည မေသခာပါ။ အေၾကာငးမာ -

• Data ကန႔သတခက• Behavioral ဆကစပ

ျခငးနားလညမႈ ကန႔သတခက

� မေသခာျခငးကအသအမတျပပါ။

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

စနေခၚမႈမာ အမားက ေရာငဖယျခငးမဟတဘ ၄ငးမ သငခနးစာယျခငးျဖစသည။

• Forecast error analysis

• Learning from mistakes

• Incremental policy steps

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

ေရာကလင ျပးဆး သည။

မေရာကလင…

• မ၀ါဒတငးတာမႈကစစစခနကကျခငး

• ခန႔မနးမႈက ေနာကထပျပလပျခငး

Central Bank of Myanmar - TAOLAM“Introduction to Financial Programming”

December 16-20, 2013 Yangon, Myanmar

ေကးဇးတငပါတယ။