naea 12-13

KCM Divided into Three Sections

“We expect single-family home sales and housing starts to be at the highest

level since 2007.”

Frank E. NothaftChief Economist at Freddie Mac

PRICES

FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013

Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region

2012 4Q 2013 1Q

2013 3Q2013 2Q

Days on Market

FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013

Year-over-Year Price Changes by State

CoreLogic11/2013

DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Months Supply

S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

Year-over-Year Change in Prices

Sustainability of Current Price Increases

Fitch Ratings11/2013

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

Metropolitan Area Month-Over-Month

Atlanta .5%

Boston .5%

Charlotte -.2%

Chicago .3%

Cleveland .3%

Dallas .2%

Denver .2%

Detroit 1.5%

Las Vegas 1.3%

Los Angeles 1.1%

Metropolitan Area Month-Over-Month

Miami .8%

Minneapolis .8%

New York .6%

Phoenix 1.2%

Portland .7%

San Diego .9%

San Francisco .8%

Seattle .3%

Tampa .2%

Washington .4%

"The conditions that led to the robust appreciation experienced earlier this year, including historically low mortgage interest rates, high affordability, low inventory and high demand, are waning. In their

place, we're beginning to see more inventory and rising mortgage rates, which will lead to further

normalization in the market going forward."

Dr. Stan Humphries Zillow Chief Economist

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

NAR 11/2013

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

-24%

-20.8%

-16.8%

-14%-13%

-7.6%

-5%-6.2%

1.8% 0.9%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

January February March April May June July August Sept October

% -24% -20.8% -16.8% -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9%

NAR 11/2013

Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.

"All those young people who moved in with their parents over the past few

years and didn't move out during the recession, there should be pent-up demand for household formation."

Jed Kolko Trulia’s Chief Economist

Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.

“We believe millennials will follow every generation that

preceded them, buying homes once their economic situation

improves.”

Joseph SniderVP and senior credit officer at Moody’s

Urban Land Institute 11/2013

121M Current Households in the United States

Projected Growth over the Next 3 Years

3.7% Number of Additional Households Formed

4.48M

ta·perˈtāpər/Verb – to diminish or reduce

A government stimulus package…

for the HOUSING INDUSTRY

Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.

“Although the consensus is the Fed will wait until 2014 to start

to taper asset purchases, December is still possible.”

Bill McBride Calculated Risk

2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

Federal Reserve 11/2013

Mortgage Rate Projections

Analyst Projected Rate 4Q 2014

Fannie Mae 4.8% National Assoc of Realtors 5.3% Freddie Mac 5.0% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.3%

Mortgage Interest Rate Payment (P&I)

Today $250,000 4.3% 1,237.18

Next Year $250,000 5.3% 1,388.26

Monthly Difference $161.08

The Cost of Waiting

30 DAY PLAN

www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/onthego

Re-up all of your existing listings

List EVERY expired listing in January

NAR 11/2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Newspaper Yard Sign

Internet

Where Buyers Found the Home They Purchased by percentages

eGuides AvailableeGuides Available

15% Discount

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

5,500,000

Existing Home Sales

S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

NAR 11/2013

100 = Historically Healthy Level

Pending Home Sales

RETURN ON INVESTMENT

47

29.5

3

65.7

Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate

January 2000 – November 2013

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage HistoryJanuary 2012 – November 2013

Federal Reserve 11/2013

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

NAR 11/2013

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

NAR 11/2013

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

35%

14%

SALES

UP 6% over last year

PRICESUP 12.8%

over last year

INVENTORY

UP .9% over last year

NAR’s NovemberExisting Home

Sales ReportOn Average

14,027Homes Sell

EVERY DAY!

CoreLogic11/2013

DISTRESSED PROPERTIES Months Supply

of all buyers search online during home buying process

of all buyers purchased a home through an agent

of all buyers look to print newspaper ads

28%

88%

92%

Where Do Buyers Find a Home?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Where Buyers Find the Home They Purchase Over the Last 10 Years

by percentage

*NAR 11/2013

Newspapers

Yard Signs

The Internet

2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates

Federal Reserve 11/2013

facebook.com/groups/kcmmembersfacebook.com/groups/kcmmembers

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

5 Frank Nothaft Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Nov_2013_public_outlook.pdf

7 Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf

8 FHFA Maps http://www.fhfa.gov/

9 Days on Market http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=396

10 Year-over-Year Change by State http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf

11 Distressed Properties http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx

12 Year-over-Year Change in Priceshttp://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf

13 Sustainability of Current Price Increaseshttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/11/Fitch%20-%20Housing%20Economic%20Risk%20Factor%20Report.pdf

14 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indiceshttp://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf

15 Dr. Stan Humphries Quotehttp://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-performs-well-despite-rising-interest-rates-2013-10-24

17 Year-over-Year Inventory Levels www.realtor.org

19 Jed Kolko Quotehttp://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/sns-201311091600--tms--realestmctnig-a20131115-20131115,0,5318891.column

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

20 Joseph Snider Quotehttp://www.dsnews.com/articles/slow-household-formation-cyclical-like-all-things-real-estate-moodys-says-2013-11-13

22 Emerging Trends in 2014http://www.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/ULI-Documents/Emerging-Trends-in-Real-Estate-Americas-2014.pdf

25 Bill McBride Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/will-fed-taper-in-december-inflation-is.html

26 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

28 Mortgage Rate Projections

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2013-6-27.pdf http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf

34 Where Buyer Found the Home They Purchasedhttp://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/05/2013-profile-of-home-buyer-and-sellers-technology-trends

39 Pending Home Sales http://www.realtor.org/

40 Return on Investment http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller

41 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

42 Dr. Stan Humphries Quotehttps://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-release-0730.pdf

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

44, 45Months Inventory of Homes for Sale, Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

www.realtor.org

47 Distressed Properties http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx

48 Where Do Buyers Find a Home? www.realtor.org

50 2013 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

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