nationalisms in east asia causes, consequences & prospects · –religious revivalism ......

Nationalisms in East AsiaCauses, Consequences & Prospects

Tuong Vu, University of Oregon

Overview: New nationalism

• A revival or product of the old nationalism

– Failures/problems caused by the old

– End of Cold War

– Democratization trend

– Rise of China

• Effects of new nationalism

• Relations between China and SE Asia (Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia)

Beijing 05/1999

Anti-Japanese protest about Senkaku/Diaoyu in Beijing, 2012

Textbook controversies

Seoul, 4/2015

Prime Minister Abe visited Yasukuni Shrine in 2013

Hanoi, 12/2007

Ho Chi Minh City, 03/2008

Manila 08/2009

Protest against USS George Washington’s visit

Manila 02/2014

Phnom Penh, 01/2003 and PreahVihear Temple, 07/2008

Jakarta, 09/2009

Nation

• Nation: a political community of people sharing a history, culture, language

– A modern concept relying on both facts & imagination

– Ex: Vietnam’s “4,000 years of struggle against China”

Source: Hui (2000)

Dynasty or Period

(Southern Frontier)

Jiao revolts against Chinese rule or

Wars among frontier polities

Time

span

219 BCE: Giao Chỉ

est.

207-111 BCE:

Triệu/Zhao dynasty

192 CE: Linyi est.

207-196 BCE, 185-180 BCE, 115?-111 BCE

40-43 CE: Trưng sisters

100: Nhật nam

137: Khu Liên

144 Cửu Chân

157: Chu Đạt

178-182: Lương Long

22

4

1

2

1?

1?

4

245-248 Lady Triệu

248: Linyi’s raid

263-271: Lữ Hưng

4

1

7

Funan emerged 344-359, 399-405, 407, 413-420, 424,

435-446: war with Linyi

35?

Dynasty or Period

(So. Frontier)

Viet revolts against Chinese rule or

Wars among frontier polities

Time span

468: Lý Trường Nhân

542-547: Lý Bí

543: Lý Bí fought Linyi

571?-603: Lý Phật Tử

1

6

1

32?

Chenla annexed Funan

650?: Linyi (Hoàn vương) annexed by

Chenla

685-687: Lý Tử Tiên

722: Mai Thúc Loan

767: Sailendra’s raid

791-798?: Phùng Hưng

819-820?: Dương Thanh

862-865: Nanzhao’s invasion

2

?

1

8?

3

3

938-944: Ngô Quyền

945-967: warlords’

rule

938: Ngô Quyền’s victory over Southern

Han

1

East Asia’s Old Nationalism

• Imported & imagined under colonial rule

• Powerful ideology motivated millions

Ho Chi Minh, Emilio Aguinaldo, Sukarno

Promises & Achievements

• Promises: “independence, liberty, happiness”

• Achievements:

– Defeat of colonial and imperial forces

– Formation of independent nation-states

Not a panacea for all problems

• Only formal national independence

• Independent nations but weak states

• Independence for large ethnic groups but not for many ethnic minorities

• Unresolved border issues

• Poverty, inequality, economic stagnation

Legacies of nationalist mobilization

• Popular myths

• Intense personal & communal experiences

• By-products: military or personal rule, communist dictatorship, one-party authoritarian system

Country Regime type

Singapore One-party authoritarian rule

Malaysia One-party authoritarian rule

South Korea Personal rule (1948-60), military rule (1961-88)

Taiwan Military/one-party rule (1946-91)

Thailand Military rule (1947-73, 76-88)

Indonesia Personal & military rule (1959-98)

Philippines Personal dictatorship (1966-86)

Burma/Myanmar Military rule (1962-2012)

China Communist dictatorship (1949- )

Vietnam Communist dictatorship (1954/1975- )

Cambodia Communist dictatorship (1975-91)

Laos Communist dictatorship (1975- )

Nationalism, War, and Affluence

Rank by national income (2000) Nationalist wars?

1 Singapore No

2 Taiwan No

3 South Korea Yes

4 Malaysia No

5 Thailand No

6 China Yes

7 Philippines No

8 Indonesia Yes

9 Vietnam Yes

10 Cambodia Yes

11 Laos Yes

12 Burma/Myanmar Yes

End of Cold War in communist countries

• Opened up room for new identities

– Religious revivalism

– Money creed

– National pride/humiliation

• Allowed economic development, liberalization & democratization

– Rise of civil society

– Cambodia

In anti-communist countries

• Democratization:

– Taiwan: native Taiwanese’ political power

– S. Korea: rise of the left

– Thailand: rise of farmers’ power

– Indonesia: rise of Islam

– Philippines: fall of Marcos dictatorship

• Impact of mass politics:

Rise of China

• Top down nationalism (since 1990s)

– “Century of humiliation”

– “The Chinese dream” (since 2012)

• Assertive policy on territorial issues

• Popular nationalism (since 2000s)

Favorable view of US, China, Japan (2014)

Viewed in Favorable view of the US

Favorable view of China

Favorable view of Japan

Japan 69% 5% --

South Korea 78 46 22%

Indonesia 61 70 77

Malaysia 55 81 75

Philippines 85 48 80

Vietnam 78 19 77

China 40 -- 8

Which country is the greatest ally/threat (2014)?

Viewed in Ally Threat

Japan US (62%) China (68%)

South Korea US (68) North Korea (36)

Indonesia US (28) US (25)

Malaysia China (27) US (26)

Philippines US (83) China (58)

Vietnam US (30) China (74)

China Russia (25) US (36)

Effects of new nationalisms

• Uniting compatriots divided by Cold War ideologies

• Arms race, tensions, possible border wars

• Future democratization

Ma Ying-jeou (KMT) & Xi Jinping (CCP) (11/2015)

Ways to improve stability

• Change the ways patriotism is taught

• Acknowledge popular nationalist sentiments as legitimate

• Involve civil society in national, bilateral, and multilateral discussions to the extent possible

China, SE Asia & the South

China Sea

China & SE Asia: Born for each other?

China

• Population: 1.2 b.

• Size of economy: $11.4 T

• ASEAN’s largest trade partner (US is 4th place)

• Interests in SE Asia: mineral resources & markets for Chinese goods & services

• Communist dictatorship

• Lots of cash & willing to offer “deals”

• Willing to befriend dictators

Southeast Asia

• Population: 600 m.

• Size of economy: $2.4 T

• China’s 3rd largest trade partner

• Interests in China: loans, aid, investment in infrastructure & mining

• Most ranked high in corruption but low in political freedom and human rights

• Majority one-party regimes; a few weak democracies

Historical legacies

• Premodern China was regional hegemon

• Premodern rivalries among middle powers: Konbaung, Chakri, Nguyen, etc.

• Substantial Chinese migration

• US colonization of Philippines (1899-1947)

• US involvement in war against communism in Indochina

• Sino-Vietnamese-Cambodian war (1979-1989)

ASEAN’s dilemma

• Not all members view China as a threat

• Some suspicious of the US

• Intense China’s diplomatic pressure

• Concerned but unable to unite against China

Vietnam’s complex modern history

• Communists seized power & led a national and social revolution since 1945

• Allied with Soviet Union & China against US & anti-communist South Vietnam (1950s-70s)

• Allied with Soviet Union against US-China-ASEAN (1980s)

Post-Cold War evolution

• Since mid-1980s: economic but not political reform

• Foreign & defense policy:

– Normalization with China, US, ASEAN

– Expansion of foreign economic relations

• Leaders’ worldview until ~2010:

– China is ideological comrade & strategic ally

– US is strategic enemy

“A friend of all nations,” but …

• Politburo, 1993“In international relations, [our policy] ‘to be friends of all nations in the world community’ is designed to take advantage of shared interests in concrete issues and concrete policy areas with other nations…For the sake of our mission to develop socialism and defend our fatherland, we place friends in different categories, with some closer and others far. By their nature, our long-term allies are the socialist forces (or countries), the communist and worker parties, and movements for national independence and revolutionary and progressive causes.”

2014 shock & adjustment

Hanoi’s dilemma

China

• Socialist brother

• Historical debts

• Largest trade partner

• Threat to territory & security

• Nationalist protests &pressure

United States

• Largest export market

• A partner to counter China’s threat

• Imperialist power

• Historical enmity

• Threat to the communist regime

Philippines

• Historically love-hate relations with the US

• Presidents make foreign policy

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo

Benigno Aquino III Rodrigo Duterte

Manila swings

• President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001-09)– Visited China 12 times

– Signed Joint Maritime Seismic Undertaking with China to explore oil in contested areas

– Encouraged Chinese investment

• President Benigno Aquino III (2010-16)– Confronted China in the South China Sea

– Signed Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with US

• President Rodrigo Duterte (2016-22)

– Local strongman, populist-leftist politician

– Engage China, challenge US

• I will not go to America any more. We will just be insulted there. So, time to say goodbye, my friend.”

• "I've realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world - China, Philippines, and Russia. It's the only way."

Duterte (Beijing, Oct 2016)

Dilemma

China

• Important source of capital & aid for development

• Important trade partner

• Threat to territorial sovereignty

US & Japan

• Traditional sources of aid & capital

• Primary trading partners

• Elites keep strong economic & cultural ties

• Past resentment

Cambodia

• Ruling Cambodia People’s Party (CPP) has long-term ties with Vietnam

• CPP dominates politics since 1997 coup

PM Hun Sen(since 1985)

• Deeply dependent on foreign aid & investment

– China has replaced US as primary benefactor since coup

• Strong & pro-Western opposition party exploits nationalist claims against Vietnam

CNRP Leader Sam Rainsy

Dilemma

China

• Primary trading partner

• Largest source of aid, FDI, loans, military assistance

• Support the ruling party & disregard for repression against the opposition

• Help balance against Vietnam & Thailand--not a target of popular nationalism

The US & Japan

• Important sources of aid & investment

• Largest markets for Cambodian garments

• Critical of the ruling party for repression & human rights violations

• Unable or unwilling to provide military assistance