ncep ozone assimilation update
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NCEP Ozone Assimilation Update
Craig S. Long – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPCLarry Flynn – NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
Donna McNamara – NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPDRuss Treadon & Haixia Liu – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
Outline:• What’s currently being assimilated• What’s next• Availability of current & future ozone sensors• Ozone forecasts in GFS• Users of GFS ozone products• Future Issues?
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
What’s currently being assimilated: SBUV/2:
• Nadir only, total + profile, ~6km res, sunlit part of Earth
• Assimilated since 1997 (N11, N14)NOAA-16
• 9 Years old (launched in 2000)• obs unsuited for use due to late equator crossing time
NOAA-17 • 7 Years old (launched in 2002)
NOAA-18 (after moratorium)• 4 Years old (launched in 2005)
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
NOAA-19 orbit iscurrently very similar to
NOAA-18
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
What’s next:• Fall 2009:
– OMI TO3 (NRT)• Working with NASA OMI ST to exclude obs of poor quality
– NOAA-19 SBUV/2 (possible)• Just given green light to make data products• Testing needs to be completed by mid summer
• Fall 2010:– GOME-2 (Total only)– MLS NRT ozone profile
• Microwave instrument• Makes obs on dark side of earth • Slightly better vert res than SBUV/2• Improve ozone hole formation monitoring• Data files need to be BUFR-ized• Non-BUFR tests complete• GSI code modified to assimilate higher res profiles from MLS and HIRDLS
– OMI nadir profile• 2011+
– OMPS: (profile, total, limb)
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
SBUV/2 Obs for 06Z cycle on Feb 5, 2009
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
OMTO3 Obs (thinned) for 06Z cycle on Feb 5, 2009
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
GFS “Guess” - OMI Obs for 06Z cycle on Feb 5, 2009
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
GFS “Guess” - OMI Obs with C-pair excluded for 06Z cycle on Feb 5, 2009
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
Availability of future ozone sensors:• As NOAA satellites continue to drift the BUV instruments
become suitable for use again:– SBUV/2 on descending node (N16, N18, N19) ascending mode (N17)– Takes 7 years…will NESDIS keep satellites working?
Years of Usable SBUV/2 Data
1516
1718
1920
2122
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
N16 N17 N18 N19 NPP C1
Aura (OMI + MLS)C1
NPP
Ozone fcst in GFS:• Ozone in the GFS forecasts looses ~3% after 120 hr and ~10% by D14.• 3 years ago JCSDA funded the NRL Chem2D ozone chemistry.• However, only two of four Chem2D terms were implemented into
operational GFS.• Need to revisit this work and complete the implementation.
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
Users of GFS ozone products: two examples• Total: UV Index
– 1-5 day global hourly forecasts of skin damaging UV radiation– Components:
• GFS Total Ozone Forecasts• GFS cloud UV radiation attenuation• GFS surface albedo (including snow)• Elevation• Aerosols (seasonal climatology)
• Profile: FAA– FAA has regulations as to how much ozone is allowed in aircraft
cabins– Utilize ozone profile climatology that is over 30 years old– UAH (Dr Mike Newchurch) is working with FAA to provide
NCEP GFS O3MR forecasts to provide more accurate information
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
UV Index ForecastsVs
NOAA NEUBrew OBS
Brewer Obs from BEARS-siteat Bondville, ILMay 5
May 6
May 7
May 4
Brewer ObsUV Index 1-5 day Fcst
http://esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/grad/neubrew/
Potential use of GFS ozone forecasts for FAA flight planners.
• Aircraft flight planning and operations require ozone forecasts– Mid-troposphere to Low-stratosphere– Routing decisions to protect human health– FAA first investigated cabin ozone exposure in 1963
• Title 14: Aeronautics and Space (aka: the FAA regulation) establishes aircraft cabin ozone standards
– above FL320 (~280 mb), max value: 250 ppbv– above FL270 (~350 mb), max value: 250 ppbv and time-weighted average:
100 ppbv
• 1980 FAA Advisory Circular specifies Belmont, et al (1978) and Wilcox and Belmont (1977) ozone climatologies
• Flight planning process begins up to 5 days in advance
• Planners use maps with multi-state sized regions designated as constant monthly mean ozone concentration
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
GFS OZONE MIXING RATIO FORECASTFL350, Pressure: 235mb, Date: 20090101
Ozone Mixing Ratio (kg/kg)JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
JFK
JFK
JFK LAXNRTPOX
FL320
JFK LAXNRTPOX
FL230
13.79
30.05
23.56
18.28
38.62
Ozone Mixing Ratio (kg/kg)
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
Future Issues:• GFS vertical res and top of model changes in FY10• Provide better ozone profile in UTLS to help out AQ fcsts• Ozone in NAM?• IR ozone profile (or channels) assimilation?
JCSDA Meeting – May 11-12, 2009
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