networked history of institutions
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Building the Iron Cage: Evolution of Multidimensional Networks in the U.S. Congress and Catholic Hierarchy!
Brian Keegan (@bkeegan)!Sasha Goodman!Ryan Kennedy!David Lazer!!NetSci 2013!Copenhagen, Denmark!June 5, 2013!
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What is the “iron cage”?!• Max Weber’s “The Protestant
Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism” (1905)!
• Social action based on efficiency and rationalism displaces social action based on tradition and lineage!
• Bureaucracy leads to:!• loss of autonomy!• centralized control!• specialization!
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Historical network analysis!• Arbesman (2013): “Long” data more important
than “big” data:!• The “real” social Pre-Cambrian era, not 2005!• 1k records x 1k events >> 1m records x 1 event!
• Padgett’s 15th century Florentine families (1993)!• Bearman’s 17th century Norfolk elites (1993)!• Gould’s 19th century Parisian neighborhood
networks (1995)!
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Research agenda!• Human mobility!
• Birth, education, appointment, death records!
• Affiliation!• Education, occupation, office records!
• Prediction!• Links, affiliations, promotions!
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Durable elite institutions!• United States Congress!
• National legislative body of world’s largest economy and most powerful military since early 20th century!
• Biographical data on members from since 1774!!
• Roman Catholic Church!• Senior leadership of largest Christian sect and
central institution of Western civilization since 5th century!
• Reliable biographical data on elite membership since 1760s!
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Benefits of elite institutions!• Bounded populations à fewer sampling biases!
• Detailed records!• “What features of elite trajectories predict promotion?”!• “How have the demographics of elites changed?”!!
• Influences and influenced by historical events!• “How has technology changed mobility patterns?”!• “How did revolutions influence leadership?”!
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Data – U.S. Congress!• Biographical Directory of the U.S. Congress!
• Office of the Historian of the U.S. Senate!• 11,390 members!• Birthplace, education, occupations, prior offices,
deathplace!
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Elite migration:Birth to Representation!
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Nodes: Sized by out-degree, colored by in-degree Edges: Sized by weight, colored by birth state
Elite migration:Birth to Death!
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Nodes: Sized by out-degree, colored by in-degree Edges: Sized by weight, colored by death state
Changes in mobility!
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Changing state “trade balances”!
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Data – Catholic Hierarchy!• Catholic-Hierarchy.org!
• David Cheney parsing Annuario Pontifico, Vatican Information Service, other publications since 2003!
• 33,940 records for Bishops & Cardinals to 15th Century, records more reliable after mid-17th Century!
• Birthplace, consectration, consectrator, appointments!
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Consecreations as social networks!
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2013 Papal Enclave!
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Predicting Pope Francis?!
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Discussion!• Historical archives encode a variety of relational, spatial,
and temporal data!• Mobility patterns!• Social relationships!• Affiliations with institutions!
• Training predictive models of electoral success, leadership & promotion based on “long data”!
• Estimate statistical models accounting for overlapping ties and longitudinal data to predict tie formation!
• Compare effects of same events (e.g., wars, technologies) on different institutions!
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Discussion!• Coordination and organization governed by:!
• Organic and informal systems mediated by distributed networks?!• Bureaucratic and formalized systems with formalized
relationships? (Powell 1990, Jones, et al. 1997)!
• “Long data” generally only captures formalized relationships – but these demonstrate substantial complexity, heterogeneity, dynamicism!
• Network theories of exchange, diffusion, closure, resource dependency allow us to potentially revisit historical accounts of institutional change and power!
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THANK YOU!"
Brian Keegan"b.keegan@neu.edu!www.brianckeegan.com!@bkeegan!
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