new instruments in foresight studies (popper, 2011)
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New Instruments in Foresight Studies
Dr Rafael Popper
Research FellowUniversity of ManchesterRafael.Popper@manchester.ac.uk
Innovation DirectorFutures DiamondRafael.Popper@futuresdiamond.com
21st Century Foresight
Outline
New concepts (as instruments)
New frameworks (as instruments)
New products (as instruments)
New services (as instruments)
New systems (as instruments)
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
New Foresight (F) Concept
Foresight is a systematic, participatory, prospective and policy-oriented process which, with the support of environmental and horizon scanning approaches, is aimed to actively engage key stakeholders into a wide range of activities anticipating, recommending and transforming (ART) technological, economic, environmental, political, social and ethical (TEEPSE) futures.
Key/Emerging & Frontier Issues Environmental Scanning Horizon Scanning
ART Anticipating Recommending Transforming
TEEPSE futures Technological Economic Environmental Political Social Ethical
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
New Horizon Scanning (HS) Concept
Horizon Scanning (HS) is a structured and continuous activity aimed at monitoring, analysing and positioning (MAP) ‘frontier issues’ that are relevant for policy, research and strategic agendas. The types of issues mapped by HS include new/emerging: trends, policies, practices, stakeholders, services, products, technologies, behaviours, attitudes, ‘surprises’ (wild cards) and ‘seeds of change’ (weak signals).
MAP Monitoring Analysing Positioning
Agendas Policy Research Strategy
NEF Issues New Emerging Frontier
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
New Weak Signals Concept
Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often referred to as “seeds of change”, providing advance intelligence or “hints” about potentially important futures, e.g. Wild Cards, challenges and opportunities. Weak Signals lie in the eye of the beholder and are often influenced by the mental frameworks and subjective interpretations of individuals with limited information about emerging trends, developments or issues in a particular time and context. Their “weakness” is directly proportional to levels of uncertainty about their interpretations, importance and implications in the short-medium-to-long-term. Weak Signals are unclear observables warning us about the possibility of future “game changing” events.
Influenced by Mental frameworks Subjective interpretations Limited information Time/Context
i3 uncertain issues Interpretation Importance Implications
Pseudo-evidence-based Unclear observables
Creativity-based Game changing events
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
ass
ess
ment
New Interpretation & Sense-making framework
S = Situation-bounded (time & context)
futurepast
Inte
rpre
tati
on &
Sense
-maki
ng
level of
unce
rtain
ty
emerging / new WIS4
issues
re-emerging
issues
WIS3
discontinuation
issues
WIS2
continuationissues
WIS1
today
WE
WE
WE
WE
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
New Fully-Fledged Evaluation Framework (1 of 2)
Ten common foresight evaluation criteria Criterion 01: Appropriateness and level of achievement of
objectives
Criterion 02: Performance of the management and funding mechanisms
Criterion 03: Justification of the programme in terms of value for money
Criterion 04: Effectiveness and efficiency of the organisational structure
Criterion 05: Effectiveness and efficiency of the approaches and methods
Criterion 06: Effectiveness and efficiency of implementation and aftercare
Criterion 07: Level of capacities and Foresight culture achieved
Criterion 08: Level of national, sub-national and international presence
Criterion 09: Level of commitment of participants
Criterion 10: Level of novelty and impact of projects
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
New Fully-Fledged Evaluation Framework (2 of 2)
Five criteria to assess impact on STI systems Criterion 11: Impact on public and private policies and strategies
Criterion 12: Impact on agendas of STI programmes and institutions
Criterion 13: Impact on the consolidation of research groups
Criterion 14: Impact on the consolidation of S&T
Criterion 15: Impact on international projects
Five criteria to assess contributions to a knowledge-based society Criterion 16: New products and services (publications, courses, etc.)
Criterion 17: New policy recommendations and research agendas
Criterion 18: New processes and skills (management, research)
Criterion 19: New paradigms or scientific/technological developments
Criterion 20: New players (e.g. sponsors, collaborators, networks)
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
S.M
.A.R
.T.E
.R. P
olic
y
Cycle
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
NEW
Foresight Process ManagementFramework
NEW
Pro
du
cts
&
Serv
ices
NEW
MethodologyFramework
44
Meth
ods C
om
bin
atio
n M
atrix
(M
CM
)
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
New uses of SNA techniques in Foresight
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
New Foresight & HS systems
iCommunity
iLibrary iOracle
iDelphi iBank iScaniNews
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
Two final remarks
We must transform Concepts & Frameworks…
…into Innovative Practices, Products & Services
We must transform the Systems Rhetoric…
...into Systems Development
thank you
Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies
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