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Nobody’s Unpredictable
Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011
Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market
Darrell Bricker, PhDChief Executive Officer,
Ipsos Global Public AffairsJanuary 12, 2011
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market
Does Public Opinion Polling Work?
Yes.
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market
39%
43%
40%
43%41%
43%
38%
25%27% 27%
24%26%
21%
18%18%
13%
16% 16%
19%
24%
33%
9%10%
11%10%
9%
6%
10%
5% 5%6%
4% 4%
34%
29%
16%
6%
11%
4%
10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Jan 20 Feb 14 Feb 28 Mar 10 Mar 24 Apr 5-7 Apr 19-21 Apr 24-27
Postmedia News / Global TV Ipsos Reid Survey Decided voters including leaners (n=894).
8% of all Canadian Adults (n=1,000) are Undecided
2011 Federal Vote Support: Our Last Poll 5 Days Before E Day…
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market
Ipsos Reid* Actual Vote %** Ipsos Reid Variance
NationalConservatives 38% Conservatives 39.6% - 1.6 %
NDP 33% NDP 30.6% + 2.4 %
Liberal 18% Liberal 18.9% - 0.9 %
Green 4% Green 3.9% - 0.1 %
Quebec NDP 42% NDP 42.9% + 0.9 %
Bloc Quebecois 26% Bloc Quebecois 23.4% + 2.6 %
Conservatives 15% Conservatives 16.5% + 1.5 %
Liberal 13% Liberal 14.2% + 1.2 %
Green 3% Green 2.1% + 0.9 %
*Ipsos Reid Final Poll Thursday April 28, 2011
**Election Canada May 3, 2011
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market5
Outline
1. Canada’s New Face
2. The New Canadian Mindset
3. What Are Canadians Thinking About
4. Selling to Today’s Consumer
5. Thinking About Food
6. Conclusion
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market6
Canada’s NewFace
1.
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market7
Old Canada
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market8
Demography Isn’t Destiny… But…
In 1960 Canada was 18 million souls, now almost 34 Million
Population
Fertility Rate Now Below Replacement Levels
Fertility Rate
Life Expectancy Has Increased – Especially For Women
Life Expectancy By 2015
Seniors Will Outnumber Children
Seniors
We’ve Become An Urban Nation
Urban Nation
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market9
Canada’s Population Pyramid
METROPOLITAN NON-METROPOLITAN
Males FemalesAGE100959085807570656055504540353025201510
50
Age 45-55 Age 45-55
Age 15-20 Age 15-20
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market
Note: The rural population for 1981 to 2006 refers to persons living outside centres with a population of 1,000 AND outside areas with 400 persons per square kilometre. Previous to 1981, the definitions differed slightly but consistently referred to populations outside centres of 1,000 population.Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Population, 1851 to 2006.Last modified: 2009-09-22.
Rural Population in Canada
Urban Population in Canada
Rural vs. Urban Population in Canada1851 - 2006
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market11
Computerization of work and home – 80% of Canadians used Internet last month for personal reasons
Technology
Immigration has increased – and the places immigrants come from have changed
Cultural Diversity
Immigrants represent 6% of rural populations, 25% of urban areas
Immigrants and Urban Areas
Demography Isn’t Destiny… But…
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market12
The Top Ten Countriesof Birth of Recent Immigrants
1981UK
Vietnam
USA
India
Philippines
Jamaica
Hong Kong
Portugal
Taiwan
2006China
India
Philippines
Pakistan
USA
South Korea
Romania
Iran
UK
Colombia
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market13
Foreign Born
As a Percentage of City Population
45.7%
39.6%36.5%
34.7%31.7%
28.9% 27.9%
20.6% 19.9%
TO
RO
NT
O
VA
NC
OU
VE
R
MIA
MI
LO
S A
NG
EL
ES
SY
DN
EY
ME
LB
OU
RN
E
NE
W Y
OR
K
MO
NT
RE
AL
WA
SH
ING
TO
N
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market14
Demography Isn’t Destiny… But…
Female employment rate has nearly doubled
Employment
Educational attainment has increased
Education
The importance of trade in our economy has quadrupled
Trade
Government a bigger share of our economy - taking 25% more of our money, but redistributing more too
Government
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market15
The New Canadian Mindset2.
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market16
The Decline In Public Trust
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market
Pharmacists 79% - 12%Doctors 75% - 10%Airline Pilots 75% - 6%Canadian Soldiers 72% + 15%Teachers 65% - 14%Day Care Workers 59% + 1%Police Officers 57% - 16%Judges 51% N\AAccountants 49% - 3%
% Who Rate 5,6or 7 (scale of 1-7) Change in Trust from 2003 - 2011
The Fall of Trust: 2003 vs 2011
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market
Chiropractors 44% + 4%Plumbers 39% - 3%Church Leaders 38% N\AFinancial Advisors 37% - 3%Charity Leaders 35% N\AEngineers 34% N\ATV/Radio Personalities 30% - 6%Journalists 29% - 2%Environmental Activists 28% N\A
% Who Rate 5,6or 7 (scale of 1-7) Change in Trust from 2003 - 2011
The Fall of Trust: 2003 vs 2011
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market
Auto Mechanics 25% - 8%Lawyers 22% - 7%New Home Builders 19% - 8%Chief Executive Officers 19% - 2%Local Municipal Politicians 17% + 3%Union Leaders 17% N\ANational Politicians 9% N/CCar Salespeople 8% - 2%
% Who Rate 5,6or 7 (scale of 1-7) Change in Trust from 2003 - 2011
The Fall of Trust: 2003 vs 2011
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market20
New Canada
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market21
What Are Canadians Thinking About
3.
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market22
Canadians and Americans Assess Current National Economic Condition…
% Very Good / Somewhat Good
47%
19% 19%
11% 13%
20%17%
25%23%
18% 17%15% 15%
18%20% 19% 20% 20% 19% 17%
80%
87%
48%43%
60%65% 67%
64%68% 68%
65%68%
63% 63% 62%
68% 68%64%
68%68%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ap
r 20
07
Oct
200
7
Ap
r 20
08
No
v 20
08
Ap
r 20
09
No
v/Ja
n 2
010
Mar
201
0
Ap
r 20
10
May
201
0
Jun
201
0
Jul 2
010
Au
g 2
010
Sep
t 20
10
Oct
201
0
No
v 20
10
Dec
201
0
Jan
201
1
Feb
201
1
Mar
/11
Ap
/11
United States Canada
Now thinking about our economic situation, how would you describe the current economic situation in [insert country]?Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market23
Thinking About Food5.
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market24
Statements About Food
87% I sometimes don't buy certain foods because they cost too much
86%Confident that food I eat is safe
83%Manufacturers need to be more transparent about nutritional content
78%Talking to a farmer
will help me to understand where
food comes from
61%I know where
the food I buy is produced
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market25
To What Extent Does the Dietary or Nutritional Information Influence What You Buy?
35%
41%
16%
8%
A Great Deal
Some
Little
NoInfluence
76% is the extent
Dietary or Nutritional Information Influences What Shoppers Buy
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market26
Eating Habits
I spend a lot of time TRYING TO IMPROVE MY EATING HABITS
My eating habits are probably HURTING MY OVERALL HEALTH
Agree 56%
Disagree 44%
Agree 43%
Disagree 57%
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market27
Women and Weight
Accept my current weight – 50%
I think I’m FAT – 50%
I want to Lose Weight – 80%
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market28
Milk Products and Women's Weight
MilkIs FATTENING:
53%
MilkIsHEALTHYforyou:
95%
Cheese is HEALTHY for you – 86%
Yogurt is HEALTHY for you – 98%
Nobody’s Unpredictable
Conclusion6.
© 2011 Ipsos Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011 - Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market
Conclusions
Check your gut at the door. Understand what Canadians REALLY think.
Are You Ready?
Nobody’s Unpredictable
Ontario Dairy Council 2011 Convention – 40th Anniversary – June 5-7, 2011
Serving an Ever-Diverse Canadian Market
Darrell Bricker, PhDChief Executive Officer,
Ipsos Global Public AffairsJanuary 12, 2011
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