of mermaids and manatees the misidentification of risk

There are basic needs or responses for any type of disaster.

However if you are starting here you are behind.

Unique events will require unique responses.

Purpose of the analysis is to identify what hazards pose the greatest threat to your:

community

Benefits:

Prioritize mitigation/reduction and avoidance

Prioritize planning

Prioritize training and exercises

Better use of time

What is a hazard?

• Internal threats such as loss of power

• External threats such as mass casualties

• Internal and External such as hurricanes or tornadoes

What Is A Vulnerability:

Poor choices in planning and risk reductionPoor choices in social, political or economic

decisionsNatural selection such as location, population,

geography

Some different types of potential Hazards/threats to plan for:

Natural Disasters

Mass Casualty

Accidents

Technologic Events

Human Caused Events

Terrorist Events

•Severe weather•Hurricanes•Tornadoes•Fires•Flooding •Earthquakes•Widespread life-threatening infectious disease outbreaks such as influenza•Mud Slides

•Bus or train accidents•Airplane accidents•Hostage events•Natural disasters•Terrorist events•Human Caused events

•Utility and Power failures•Communication failures•IT failure•Water supply failures•Critical resource shortages•Fuel shortages

•Urban fires•Chemical spills•Civil Disorder•Industrial Plant accidents•Nuclear plant malfunctions causing radiation release•Transportation accidents, such as plane crash or passenger train derailment

•CBRNE (Biological, Chemical, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive Agents)•Bomb threats•Sabotage•Armed insurrection, which threaten life or property•Hijacking

Process of evaluating risk associated with a specific hazard and defined in terms of:

probability & frequency of occurrence magnitude & severity exposure & consequences preparedness

Vulnerability equals hazard/threat probability, plus severity minus prepared response, or

V = Pb + S - Pr

Vulnerability equals hazard/threat probability, plus severity minus prepared response, or

V = Pb + S - Pr

Consider each of the following when rating each potential hazard/event based on the following criteria:

▪ Probability▪ Response time and scope▪ Human Impact▪ Property Impact▪ Business Impact▪ Preparedness▪ Internal Resources needed▪ External Resources needed

Safety Officer Finance Public Relations Security Risk Management Infection Control Administration Plant Operations Bio-med Engineering

Public Health Department

Emergency Management Police and Fire EMS Haz-Mat LEPC

Who needs to be involved?

Experience Local resources such as EMA, LEPC’s and

Public Health Outside professional review Self assessment including physical security,

human resources practices, identification checks, technology and communications

Event MCI, NBCI, Bomb Threat, etc.

Score 0(N/A); 1(Low); 2(Mod); 3(Hi)

Probability Likelihood this will occur

Human Impact Possible death or injury

Property Impact Physical losses and damage

Business Impact Interruption of services

Preparedness Preplanning

Internal Response Time, effectiveness, resources

External Response Community/Mutual Aid

Risk Risk = Probability * Severity

e-VAST HTVA Tool

Planning!

Planning!

Planning!

Training!

Training!

Training!

If this is such a good approach why do we always hear:

“but its never flooded here before” or “we never thought this would happen”

January 4, 1493- Christopher Columbus wrote: “mermaids rose high out of the seas but they were not as beautiful as they are represented”

We can blame our brain as optimism lights up our amygdala and rostral anterior cingulate cortex so we are wired (theoretically) to accentuate the positive and mute the negative

Which leads to missing events which are rare, have extreme impact and are retrospectively predictable (Taleb)

Many of our risk and hazard evaluations follow the 4 M Fault Line

The Motive- An illusion of understanding

The Myth-That the NNT is 1:1 The Magnitude-Predicting failure The Management-arrogance of

competence

We need to recognize that there is a gap between that risk we envision and that risk which needs to be envisioned

We need to fill in that gap by recognizing there are unknown (to us) known's which if known can identify risks and enhance preparedness

We must also include risk reduction/mitigation in our HVA as a way of eliminating disasters

Ask a black swan or Create tools that visualize risk.

Any situational awareness information from any source

To use discussions for information sharing realizing our communities may not be the first site to impacted.

Crowd sourcing as an effective surveillance tool

The Domino Response vs. Shots on Goal Silos of knowledge = Reductionism vs

Systems Thinking Biased advocacy depending on your

domain Managing our hypothesis instead of

planning for uncertainty