outlook and reforms to promote inclusive and sustainable growth azim sadikov resident representative...
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Outlook and Reforms to Promote Inclusive and
Sustainable Growth
Azim SadikovResident Representative
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine
2
Global Growth: Moderate and Uneven
World U.S. EuroArea
Emerging
Markets
Emerging Europe China Russia
2014 3.4 2.4 0.9 4.6 2.8 7.3 0.6
2015 3.1 2.6 1.5 4.0 3.0 6.8 -3.8
2016 3.6 2.8 1.6 4.5 3.0 6.3 -0.6
3
Shock 1: Lower Prices of Oil and Other Key Commodities
Global Commodity Prices(Index Values, 2005=100)
Source: IMF Primary Commodity Prices database.1/ Simple average of Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate prices.
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-1550
100
150
200
250
300
FoodMetalsCrude oil 1/Natural gas (Asia)
2000 04 08 12 16 200
20
40
60
80
100
120
Average Petroleum Spot Price(US dollars a barrel)
4
Shock 2: Slowdown in Russia
Real growth in Russia(Percent)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Current projec-tions
Average growth 1996-2013
5
Russian Ruble, U.S. Dollar, and Oil Prices(Indices, Jan. 1, 2014 = 100)
Shock 3: Exchange Rate Movements
Sources: National authorities; Bloomberg; and IMF staff calculations.1/ Simple average of Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate prices.
40
60
80
100
120
Oil Price 1/Russia, USD/NC IndexUS NEER Index
Ukraine
Russia
Moldova
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Turkey
Armenia
-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
-26
-25
-10
-9
-9
-9
-6
1
Nominal Effective Exchange Rates
(Sep 15 - Aug 14 change, percent)
Amid A Tough External Environment, Economic Growth Slowed in 2015
6
Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Belarus Moldova Ukraine-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Real GDP Growth 2013-17(annual percent change)
Large and Persistent Current Account Deficits are a Key Source of Vulnerability
7
SV
N
HU
N
HR
V
CZ
E
BG
R
ES
T
SV
K
KA
Z
RO
M
PO
L
LIT
MK
D
LV
A
UK
R
MD
A
TU
R
BL
R
AR
M
BIH
GE
O
KG
Z
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8 Current Account BalancePercent of GDP, 2014-2015 Average
Despite Strong Growth in the past, Unemployment Remains High
8
4 6 8 10 12 14 1610
15
20
25
30
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Georgia
Moldova
Ukraine
East Asia
Europe&Central Asia
High Income
MENA
Sub-SaharanAfrica
World
Total and Youth Unemployment
Total unemployment (percent)
You
th U
nem
plo
ym
en
t (
per-
cen
t)
9
Scope to Improve Competitiveness and Governance
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Structural Reform Indicators(in global percent rank)
Central and Eastern Eu-rope
Growth
Sustainable
Need an Economic Model that Promotes
Diverse
High
Inclusive
Growth
10
Macro-economic stability
Promote trade
integration
Enhance sector
reforms
Invest in infrastructure
Expand access to finance
Improve the business climate
Address skills
mismatches
Bold Reforms to Generate Growth and Create Jobs
12
Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Georgia Moldova Ukraine0
1
2
3
4
5
6T
ax
adm
inis
trati
on
Politi
cal In
stabilit
y
Info
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Acc
ess
to F
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Acc
ess
to t
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Skills
Acc
ess
to F
inance
Info
rmal S
ecto
r
Politi
cal In
sta-
bilit
yE
lect
rici
ty
Acc
ess
to F
inance
Corr
upti
on
Politi
cal In
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y
Skills P
oliti
cal In
stabilit
y
Corr
upti
on
Info
rmal S
ecto
r
Acc
ess
to F
inan
ce
Top three obstacles to firms’ operations
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