overview of crime trends in sa npa conference 2007 johan burger crime and justice programme

Overview of crime trends in SA

NPA CONFERENCE 2007

JOHAN BURGERCrime and Justice Programme

Outline

• Overview of official crime statistics: 2004/5 - 2005/6 (up to March 2006)

• What do we know about crime in 2006/7?

Overview of official crime statistics

General trends over past 12 years

• Total number of crimes 7% • Total crime, and most serious crimes, peaked

around 2002/3• After 2002/3, encouraging decreases were

recorded ( 6% per year)• Several types of serious crime since 2002/3:

murder, burglary, robbery overall• Serious crimes that increased recently: vehicle

theft, hijacking, CIT robberies

Total 21 crimes recorded by SAPS

1994/95 - 2005/06

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 '03/04 '04/05 '05/06

Nu

mb

er

of

cri

me

s

Violent interpersonal crime Robbery Property crime Other

How accurate are the police statistics?

29

36

36

41

44

55

57

64

97

0 20 40 60 80 100

Robbery

Livestock theft

Damage to motor vehicles

Theft of personal property

Bicycle theft

Assault

Housebreaking

Theft out of motorvehicle

Car theft

% of victims who reported

Reporting of crime to police, 2003 ISS national victim survey

Murder rate1994/95 - 2005/06

Housebreaking rate 1994/95 - 2005/06

704

645

593

559

675694

673653

611603

629

597

400

500

600

700

800

94\95 95\96 96\97 97\98 98\99 99\00 00\01 01\02 02\03 03\04 '04\05 05\06

Nu

mb

er

pe

r 1

00

00

0 p

eo

ple

Aggravated robbery rate 1994/95 - 2005/06

220

196

288272

255

279262

260

230220

177164

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

94\95 95\96 96\97 97\98 98\99 99\00 00\01 01\02 02\03 03\04 '04\05 05\06

Nu

mb

er

pe

r 1

00

00

0 p

eo

ple

Bank robbery & cash in transit heists 1996/97 -

2005/06

450469

356

54 58 59

359

236 223 226196

238

374

192220

383

127

493

463

561

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 '01/02 '02/03 '03/04 '04/05 '05/06

Nu

mb

er

Bankrobbery

Cash-in-transitheists

Car hijacking rate 1996/97 - 2005/06

32 32

38

3534

35.4

32.3

29.7

26.727.4

20

24

28

32

36

40

96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 '00/01 '01/02 '02/03 '03/04 '04/05 05\06

No

. per

100

000

peo

ple

Car theft rate1994/95 - 2005/06

205

190180 183

255

274

250

241248 239

217229

100

150

200

250

300

94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 '03/04 '04/05 05\06

Nu

mb

er

pe

r 1

00

00

0 p

eo

ple

Rape rate 1994/95 - 2005/06

115

125 126 126

118

122 121 121

115113

118 117

80

90

100

110

120

130

94\95 95\96 96\97 97\98 98\99 99\00 00\01 01\02 02\03 03\04 '04\05 05\06

Nu

mb

er

pe

r 1

00

00

0 p

eo

ple

What do we know about crime in 2006/7?Various sources indicate increases in certain crimes in certain places

Short-term insurance industry reports

• Mutual & Federal: – Reversal of downward trend in

hijacking in Apr-June 2006 quarter (4% increase over 2005 quarter)

– Stolen cars also resumed an upward trend in Apr-June quarter

– Burglary claims increased by 15% in this quarter

• Hollard:– Spike in hijacking (20%) and burglary

claims in Apr-June 2006 quarter

Increases in certain crimes in Gauteng

(MEC for Community Safety, Feb 2007) • Operation IRON FIST (July - Dec 2006) was

launched to address the “spike in certain crimes”. Results:– Hijacking “stabilised” compared to 1st 6 months

of 2006– “Substantial reduction” in CIT heists. (SABRIC

reports 27% reduction Sep-Dec 2006 compared to 2005)

– Business robberies “continued to increase” but at a slower rate than 1st 6 months of 2006

– Residential robberies: “decreases were not recorded”

– Residential burglaries: “substantial reduction” after slight increase in 1st 6 months of 2006

SABRIC figures

•Bank robbery:

Down from 92 in 2005 to 83 in 2006

Overall decrease of 66% between 2000 and 2006

SABRIC figures (contd)

•CIT robbery:

Up from 520 in 2005 to 545 in 2006 (An increase of 5%)

In 2005 the increase was 17%

In 2004 there was a decrease of 7%

SABRIC figures (contd)

•ATM attacks:Increased with 121% from 37 in

2000 to 82 in 2006During Jan - March 2007 78

incidents already reported61% of incidents involved the use

of explosives

Consumer Goods Council figures

• CGC members reported armed robberies for the 2004-2006 period:

2004 - 206 2005 - 240 2006 - 262

(A 27% increase over the 3 year period)

Consumer Goods Council (contd)

• Comparative figures for Jan - Feb 2006/2007:

Armed robberies: Jan 2006 - 15 Jan 2007 - 15 (no change) Feb 2006 - 28 Feb 2007 - 16 (43% decrease)

Conclusion

•Good news:Overall crime levels are coming

down, but are still extremely high (e.g. murder has decreased by 41% over 12 year period, but is still approx 8 times the international average)

Conclusion (contd)

Aggravated robbery is down from 288 in 2003/04 to 255 in 2005/06 (but is still 55% up from 164 in 1996/97)

Bank robbery decreased by 66% between 2000-2006 (but focus seems to have moved to CIT, ATM & shopping centres)

Conclusion (contd)

• Bad news:CIT robberies increased by 74%

betw 2004/05 - 2005/06 (this trend continued in 2006 with a 5% increase since 2005)

ATM attacks increased by 121% betw 2005 - 2006, and the 78 attacks for the first 3 months in 2007 already

matches the total for 2006 (61% of these attacks explosives used)

Conclusion (contd)

Armed robberies at shopping centres increased by 27% over the last three years

Some crimes that showed decreases over the last number of years, seems to have leveled out and even slightly increased (e.g. hijackings, car theft)

THANK YOU

jburger@issafrica.org