p zmny u niversity on the policy and politics of climate change session v david ellison institute...

PÁZMÁNYPÁZMÁNY UNIVERSITYUNIVERSITY

On the Policy and Politics of Climate ChangeOn the Policy and Politics of Climate ChangeSession V Session V

David EllisonDavid Ellison

Institute for World Economics (Budapest)Institute for World Economics (Budapest)Comments WelcomeComments Welcome ( (EllisonDL@Gmail.com)

Goals for TodayGoals for Today

Questions?Questions?Japan, earthquakes/tsunamis and nuclear power?Japan, earthquakes/tsunamis and nuclear power?International negotiations and Cancun conclusionsInternational negotiations and Cancun conclusionsS. Africa positionS. Africa positionWork on paper topics?Work on paper topics?

After KyotoAfter Kyoto

Bali Action Plan: December 2007Bali Action Plan: December 2007 Mandate for negotiations on:Mandate for negotiations on:

Mitigation, adaptation, forests, finance, technology Mitigation, adaptation, forests, finance, technology transfer and capacity buildingtransfer and capacity buildingPost-2012 KP regimePost-2012 KP regimeTo conclude negotiations in December 2009 To conclude negotiations in December 2009 (Copenhagen)(Copenhagen)

After KyotoAfter Kyoto

Copenhagen (December 2009)Copenhagen (December 2009) Copenhagen AgreementCopenhagen Agreement Country-level commitments (submitted to UNFCCC)Country-level commitments (submitted to UNFCCC) The Gigaton Gap?The Gigaton Gap?

Cancun (December 2010)Cancun (December 2010) Cancun AgreementCancun Agreement What happened in Cancun…?What happened in Cancun…? Half-empty or half-full?Half-empty or half-full?

Cancun AgreementCancun Agreement

What is included in the Cancun Agreement?What is included in the Cancun Agreement? 2ºC target, discussion of 1.5ºC target2ºC target, discussion of 1.5ºC target Emission targets (some 80 countries), blurs lines between Emission targets (some 80 countries), blurs lines between

Annex I and non-Annex I countries…?Annex I and non-Annex I countries…? Adaptation CommitteeAdaptation Committee Financing (Green Climate Fund)Financing (Green Climate Fund) MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification)MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification) Negotiation extended (COP17 in Durban S. Africa)Negotiation extended (COP17 in Durban S. Africa) REDD initiatedREDD initiated CDM will be continuedCDM will be continued

Country Groupings at CancunCountry Groupings at Cancun

USUSJapan, Russia, CanadaJapan, Russia, CanadaEU?EU?

Cartagena group plus Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, UKCartagena group plus Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK 30%: UK, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden30%: UK, Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden 20%: Germany, France, CEE20%: Germany, France, CEE Leadership?Leadership?

BrazilBrazilChina, IndiaChina, IndiaBoliviaBoliviaS. Africa – ZsuzsannaS. Africa – Zsuzsanna

Surveying the Future?Surveying the Future?

Given what you know about the individual member Given what you know about the individual member countries:countries: Estimate chances for success in Durban S. Africa (COP17)Estimate chances for success in Durban S. Africa (COP17) How are issues like election years important?How are issues like election years important? Does the role of host country matter and how?Does the role of host country matter and how? Which countries are not likely to participate and how does Which countries are not likely to participate and how does

this matter?this matter? Is China a willing partner?Is China a willing partner? What role do countries like Burundi play?What role do countries like Burundi play? What role should the developed countries play?What role should the developed countries play?

Is this Man Crazy?Is this Man Crazy?

Compare Mike Tidwell to Robert StavinsCompare Mike Tidwell to Robert Stavins Which approach is more reasoned?Which approach is more reasoned? Can you explain Stavins way of thinking about Cancun?Can you explain Stavins way of thinking about Cancun? Can you explain Tidwell’s way of thinking?Can you explain Tidwell’s way of thinking?

Who is more responsible/irresponsible?Who is more responsible/irresponsible?

How can Things be Done Differently?How can Things be Done Differently?

Your suggestions:Your suggestions: 1)1)

Thank you for listening…!Thank you for listening…!

Questions and Comments welcome:Questions and Comments welcome:

David Ellison (Ellisondl@gmail.com)David Ellison (Ellisondl@gmail.com)