par sociālās apdrošināšanas sistēmas ilgtermiņa stabilitāti · estonia until 2016...
Post on 06-Jun-2018
219 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
1
Strugling Imbalances Impact of Demographic Trends
on Latvian Social Policy Making
Arvils Ašeradens
Parlamentary Secretary
Ministry of Welfare
2
According to EuroStat in 50 years
population in Latvia will be less then1.6 mil people Age structure change
2011/2060
120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000
0 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 - 84
85 - 89
90 - 94
95 - 99
100+
2011 2060
male female
Latvia - Census 2011,unpleasant surprise....
Natural growth rate
Migration ratio ?
Negative, How?
Number of inhabitants in Latvia during last two decades
has decreased dramaticaly:
290 th from 1989 – 2000 (11%)
309 th from 2000 – 2011 (13%)
4
PostCrisis
Latvia
Gross domestic product:
2007-2011;
+11%, -5%, -18%,
-2%, +4.5%
Household debt:
2007-2011:
5.7 bil LVL
State budget deficit:
2009-2012
-6%, -3%, -2.5%, 0.8%
Outgoing migration:
2007-2011:
>200 000 inhabitants
Three most afected Social policy areas :
6
o Child and family policy
o Active employment policy
o Social insurance system
7
41275
1841019664
20334
21677
23948
19219
41757
32421
3420032710 33042
29897
30040
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Number ofbirthsNumber ofdeaths
Child and family policy
Desperate fight for stable birth rate
2011 19/30 Natural growth in
Latvia 1988 -2010
8
Top priority of Latvian government
Council of Demographic Affairs • Cabinet’s Regulations of 12 April 2011 No 293 “By-law of the Council of
Demographic Affairs”
• Henceforth demographic matters shall be dealt with under direct subordination of the Prime Minister, thus enabling that demographic issues are solved in an integrated manner in all the involved branches, not just only in a single ministry’s supervised fields of competence
• The aim of the Council is to promote national demographic policy and its implementation in all the levels of state administration
• The basic composition of the Council is formed by the branch ministers, nongovernmental organizations with which a good cooperation has been developed and which possess certain level of competence related to demographic issues, additionally such institutions have been included, which have a significant role in the Council’s work, such as Parliament’s Commission of Social and Labour Matters and Parliament’s Commission of Human Rights and Public Matters, Commission of Strategic Analysis, Employers' Confederation of Latvia, Latvian Association of Free Trade Unions, NGOs representing families’ interests.
Employment policy
High unemployment
Basic reason of outgoing migration Registred unemployment level at
State Employment agency (NVA)
78
48
2
68
94
4
52
32
1
76
43
5
17
92
35
16
24
63
16
45
51
16
48
80
16
34
54
15
78
57
14
96
00
14
24
28
13
76
38
13
41
75
13
16
59
7.4
6.5
4.9
7
16
14.3 14.5 14.5 14.4 13.9
13.2 12.6
12.1 11.8 11.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
bezdarbnieku skaits bezdarba līmenis,%
Labour market Three spheres of interaction
Education
System Labour force Industries
Social Security Net
Effective coordination of involved actors
Welfare
Ministry
Economy
Ministry
Business Incubation
Education
Ministry Life-long Learnig
Inovation
•Secondary schools •Profesional education •Universities •Science
•Bussines environment •Industrial policy
•Labour market development •Social security net
Employment Policy
12
age group 15-74 , th.
Employment policy chalenge 2015:
labour deficit Dinamics of labour suplay and demand
Labour supply-
economicaly active population
Labour demand-
number of people employed
13
Social insurance system
Social budget deficit presure
14
Social insurance system
Social tax rate – 35,09% (11% paid by employee, 24,09% by employer)
• pension insurance 26,74%
• insurance against unemployment 1,50%
• work injury insurance 0,41%
• disability insurance 3,16%
• maternity and sickness insurance 2,28%
• parental insurance 1,0%
15
Factors afecting
social insurance system
• Demographic indicators
(birth rate, mortality, migration)
• Macro-economical indicators
• The proportion of grey economics
• Political decisions
16
Social insurance system burden
persons employed/pensioners
805772
729701
661619
588628
778 759
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
number of pensioners per 1000 contributors, at the beginning of the year (January)
17
Population age structure change (%)
57,20%58,90%
65,60% 65,80%
62,00%59,90%
57,20%
51,20%49,50%
22,30% 23,20%20,60% 20,50%
23,10%
27,10%
30,90%
36,50%38,60%
0,00%
10,00%
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
60,00%
70,00%
1996 2000 2008 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
working age (15-61) over working age (no 62)
18
Projected average age for persons
reached age 62, years
80,381,8 82,5
83,985,3
86,787,9
89,1
8583,6
82,180,5
78,877,1
75,675,6
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
men women
19
Changes over the Life Cycle
• Approximately one third of the life cycle
person is retired
• Rising life expectancy of persons increase
the period of retirement, at the same time
employment period declines
• In order to maintain appropriate
proportions, retirement age has to be
increased
20
Proposed Amendments in Concept Paper
On the Long-term Stability of the Social
Insurance System
1) Gradual increase of retirement age from 62 to 65
starting from 2014: – for 3 months starting from 1 January 2014 and 1 January 2015
– for 6 months starting from 1 January 2016 to year 2020
2) At the same time increase of early retirement age up to age of 63: – for 3 months starting from 1 January 2014 and 1 January 2015
– for 6 months starting from 1 January 2016 to year 2020
21
Social insurance budget deficit/reserve
balance after expected change
-2300
-1800
-1300
-800
-300
200
700
1200
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
w ith planed reforms w ithout planed reforms
22
Increase of retirement age in EU
Estonia until 2016 retirement age for women will be increased up to age of existing
retirement age of men – age of 63. Starting with year 2017 retirement age will be
increased each year for 3 months until year 2024, when retirement age will be 65
Lithuania from 2012 retirement age will be gradually increased up to age of 65: for women
– each year for 4 months and for men – each year for 2 months
Czech Republic from 2006 to 2030 retirement age will be increased up to age of 65
Germany from 2012 to 2027 retirement age will be increased up to age of 67
Hungary from 2012 retirement age will be increased up to age of 65
Malta until 2027 retirement age will increase up to age of 65
The Netherlands in 2020 retirement age will be increased up to age of 66 and in 2025 up to age of
67
Slovenia until 2020 retirement age will increase up to age of 65
United Kingdom from 2024 to 2026 retirement age will be increased up to age of 66
23
Thank You! arvils.aseradens@lm.gov.lv
top related