ph.d. completion and attrition: analysis of baseline data · ten-year completion and attrition...
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Ph. D. Completion and Attrition: Analysis of Baseline Data
Robert SowellNSF Workshop
A FRESH LOOK AT Ph.D. EDUCATION
March 31, 2008
CGS Ph.D. Completion ProjectQuantitative Data Submitted by Institutions
12 Years (1992-93 through 2003-04)
Program completion and attrition• 30 Institutions
• 5 Broad Fields
• 54 Disciplines
• 330 Programs
• ~49,000 Students
Broad field demographiccompletion• Gender (G)
• Citizenship/Ethnicity (CE)
• 24 Institutions (G)
• 23 Institutions (CE)
• ~40,000 Students (G)
• ~ 40,000 Students (CE)
Ten-Year Completion and Attrition Analysis:For Students Entering Ph.D. Programs
1992-93 through 1994-95 (A Cohorts)
Completion• Program Data: Overall, broad field, discipline
• Gender Data: Broad field
• Citizenship/Ethnicity: Broad field
Attrition• Program Data: Overall, broad field
Profile of Data (A-Cohorts) for Ten-Year Completion Analysis
Approximate distribution across fields
9,359Citizenship&
Ethnicity Data
9,683Gender Data
12,135Program Data
Overall Ten-Year Completion Rates
5
11
23
36
46
5155
570
2040
60C
umul
ativ
e C
ompl
etio
n R
ate
(%)
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Ten-Year Cumulative Completion Rates by Broad Field
010
2030
4050
6070
Com
plet
ion
Rat
e (%
)
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Engineering Life SciencesMathematics & Physical Sciences Social SciencesHumanities
57
5448
41
29
6463565549
Ten-Year Completion Rates for Selected Disciplines
44%Political Science59%Biology
45%Sociology64%Molecular/Cell Biology
46%Anthropology65%Neuroscience
52%Economics69%Microbiology/Immunology
65%Psychology69%Genetics
Social Science 56%Life Science 63%
41%Computer Science56%Electrical Engineering
51%Mathematics63%Biomedical Engineering
59%Physics63%Chemical Engineering
62%Chemistry66%Mechanical Engineering
78%Civil EngineeringMathematics and Physical
Sciences 55%Engineering 64%
Ten-Year Completion Rates: Broad Field and Gender
56 56
52
57
52
65 64
59
53
47
40
50
60
70
En g in e e r in g Life Scie n ce s M ath &Ph ysica l
Sc ie n ce s
So cia lSc ie n ce s
Hu man itie s
Com
plet
ion
Rat
e (%
)
F em ale Male
Annual Ph.D. Completion Rates by Gender in Mathematics & Physical Sciences
02
46
810
1214
1618
Com
plet
ion
Rat
e (%
)
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Female Male
Annual Ph.D. Completion Rates by Gender in Social Sciences
03
69
12C
ompl
etio
n R
ate
%
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Female Male
Ten-Year Completion Rates: Broad Field and Citizenship
59 58
51
56
50
70
6668
63
52
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Engine e ring Life S cie nce s M a th &P hysica lS cie nce s
S ocia lS cie nce s
Hum a nitie s
Com
plet
ion
Rat
e (%
)
Do me stic In te rn atio n a l
Annual Ph.D. Completion Rates by US Citizenship in Social Sciences
03
69
1215
Com
plet
ion
Rat
e %
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Domestic International
Annual Ph.D. Completion Rates by US Citizenship in Engineering
04
812
1620
Com
plet
ion
Rat
e %
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Domestic International
Ten-Year Completion Rates: Broad Field and Ethnicity
47
60
37
47
5253
47
53
4446
55 54 5355
37
61 60
52
57
51
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Engine e ring Life S cie nce s M a th & P hysica lS cie nce s
S ocia l S cie nce s Hum a nitie s
Com
plet
ion
Rat
e (%
)
African Am erican Asian H ispan ic W hite
Ten-Year Completion Rates: Ethnicity + Int’l and Broad Field
47
5355
6160
47
54
60
37
53 53 52
4744
5557
52
46
37
51
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Afr ican Ame r ican Asian Hisp an ic W h ite
Com
plet
ion
Rat
e (%
)
E ngineering Life S c ienc es M ath & P hy s ic al S c ienc es S oc ial S c ienc es Hum anit ies
Cumulative 10-Year Ph.D. Completion Rates by Broad Fields for African American Students
010
2030
4050
60C
ompl
etio
n R
ate
(%)
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Engineering Life SciencesMath & Physical Sci Social SciencesHumanities
47
60
37
47
52
Cumulative Overall Ten-Year Attrition Rates
6
14
20
2325
2728
29 30 310
1020
30A
ttriti
on R
ate
(%)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Source: Council of Graduate SchoolsCompletion and Attrition Program Data
Cumulative Ten-year Attrition Rates by Broad Field5
1015
2025
3035
40A
ttriti
on R
ate
(%)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Year
Engineering Life SciencesMathematics & Physical Sciences Social SciencesHumanities
31
23212018
37
32
26.726.926.2
Ten-Year Continuing, Completion and Attrition Rates: Broad Field
020
4060
8010
0C
umul
ativ
e R
ates
%
Engineering Life Sciences Math & Physical Sci. Social Sciences3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Continuing Completion Attrition
Other Analysis
By Institution Type (Private vs. Public)
By cohort sizes (Large, Medium, and Small)
By entering time ( Seven- and four-year completion and attrition)
Early Attrition (Status of student leaving program)
CGS Ph.D. Completion Project:Other Institutional Input
Conduct student exit surveys
Provide pre-project factor assessment data (for the institution and each participating program)
Implement new interventions aimed at improving completion and reducing attrition
Categories of New Interventions
Selection/Matching
Mentoring and Advising
Financial Support and Structure
Program Environments
Research Experiences
Curricular and Administrative Processes and Procedures
Future Questions to be Addressed in the Ph.D. Completion Project
Why do students say they complete (or not)? What are the perceptions about graduate school of completers and non-completers? What is the impact of the six categories of interventions? How does efficacy vary across broad field and for which populations? Can we project ultimate completion and time to degree from our completion and attrition data?
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