post kyoto options: the next climate change policy, jon rosales

Post-Kyoto Options: The Next Version of International Climate Change Policy

Jon Rosales, Ph.D.

Environmental Studies

St. Lawrence University

Important point…

GHGs mix evenly in the atmosphere.

Important point…

GHGs mix evenly in the atmosphere.

It doesn’t matter where they are reduced.

Important point…

GHGs mix evenly in the atmosphere.

It doesn’t matter where they are reduced.

Or does it?

Kyoto Protocol

Kyoto Protocol: targets (% change from 1990 emissions)

Kyoto Protocol: GHGs

• Carbon dioxide (CO2)

• Methane (CH4)

• Nitrous oxide (N2O)

• Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

• Perlurorocarbons (PFCs)

• Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

Kyoto Protocol: policy options

1. DomesticConservationEfficiency

2. InternationalEmissions TradingProject-based: CDM & JI

Post-Kyoto

Where to start?

Post-Kyoto

Where to start?

GHG emissions by country: top 25 (MtCO2e)

1. US 6,928 14. Mexico 5122. China 4,938 15. Indonesia 5033. EU-25 4,725 16. Australia 4914. Russia 1,915 17. Ukraine 4825. India 1,884 18. Iran 4806. Japan 1,317 19. South Africa 4177. Germany 1,009 20. Spain 3818. Brazil 851 21. Poland 3819. Canada 680 22. Turkey 35510. UK 654 23. Saudi Arabia 34111. Italy 531 24. Argentina 28912. S. Korea 521 25. Pakistan 28513. France 513 Source: WRI

Cumulative CO2 emissions (1850-2002)

1. US 29.3% 18. Brazil 0.8%2. EU-25 26.5% 21. Indonesia 0.5%3. Russia 8.1% 25. Pakistan 0.2%4. China 7.6%5. Germany 7.3%6. UK 6.3%7. Japan 4.1%8. France 2.9%9. India 2.2%10. Ukraine 2.2%

_____Source: WRI

GHG emissions per capita (TCe, 2000)

1. Australia 6.8 14. Spain 2.62. US 6.6 15. Italy 2.53. Canada 6.3 16. France 2.34. Saudi Arabia 4.3 17. Argentina 2.15. Russia 3.6 18. Iran 1.96. Germany 3.2 19. Turkey 1.57. UK 3.1 20. Mexico 1.48. South Korea 3.1 21. Brazil 1.39. Ukraine 2.9 22. China 1.110. Japan 2.9 23. Indonesia 0.711. EU-25 2.8 24. Pakistan 0.612. Poland 2.7 25. India 0.513. South Africa 2.6

_____

Source: Pew

GHG emissions intensity: TCO2e/$mil GDP

1. Ukraine 2,3692. Russia 1,8173. Iran 1,3534. Saudi Arabia 1,3095. Pakistan 1,0746. China 1,0237. South Africa 1,0068. Poland 9919. Australia 97715. US 72016. Brazil 67920. Germany 47121. EU-25 44923. Japan 40025. France 344

_______Source: WRI

Corporations

122 corporations = 80% of all CO2 emissions

Exxon = 80% of Africa or South America

____CoporateWatch; Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies

New York?NY = Turks and Caicos Islands, Niue, Saint Helena, Kiribati, Cook Islands, Montserrat, Vanuatu, Sao Tome and Principe, Dominica, Comoros, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Cape Verde, Tonga, Samoa, Nauru, Saint Vincent/Grenadines, Solomon Islands, Chad, Lesotho, Grenada, Saint Lucia, Western Sahara, The Gambia, Bhutan, Central African Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Maldives, Cayman Islands, Laos, Burundi, Liberia, Belize, Antigua and Barbuda, Cambodia, Benin, Mali, Seychelles, Somalia, French Polynesia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Fiji, Malawi, Aruba, French Guiana, Togo, Burkina Faso, Niger, Swaziland, Uganda, Afghanistan, Guinea, Eritrea, Mozambique, Madagascar, Haiti, Barbados, Suriname, Guadeloupe, Macau, Guyana, New Caledonia, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Martinique, Zambia, Namibia, Reunion, Mauritius, Tanzania, Papua New Guinea, Nepal, Congo (Brazzaville), Mauritania, Ethiopia, Armenia, Botswana, The Bahamas, Nicaragua, Congo, Brunei, Paraguay, Senegal, Sudan, Ghana, Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Mongolia, Gabon, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Uruguay, Cyprus, Kenya, Yemen, Panama NYC = Ireland or Portugal

New York?POPULATION

19,047,800 = 641,056,700  

US (288,212,300) = 151 countries (2,631,990,800)

_____________National Environmental Trust (2002)

How do we proceed?

How do we proceed?

1. Stabilize climate

2. Cost effective

3. Equitable

4. Flexible

5. Complementary and continuous

6. Politically palatable

Ability to PayAgreed Domestic Carbon TaxesBottom-UpBrazilian ProposalBroad but Shallow BeginningClimate Marshall PlanContraction and ConvergenceConverging MarketsDomestic Hybrid Trading SchemesDual Intensity TargetsDual TrackEqual Mitigation CostsExpanded “Common but Differentiated”Further DifferentiationGlobal FrameworkGlobal Preference ScoreGlobal TriptychGraduation and DeepeningGrowth BaselinesHarmonized Common TaxesHuman Development Goals w/ Low EmissionsHybrid International Emissions Trading

Insurance for Adaptation Funded by Emissions Trading International Agreements on Energy EfficiencyKeep It Simple, Stupid (KISS)Long-Term Permit ProgramMulti-Dimensional StructureMulti-Sector ConvergenceMultistage and New MultistageOrchestra of TreatiesParallel Climate PolicyPer Capita AllocationPortfolio ApproachPurchase of a Global Public GoodSafety ValveSafety Valve with Buyer LiabilitySoft Landing in Emissions GrowthSouth-North DialogueSustainable Development Policies and MeasuresTechnology Backstop ProtocolTechnology-Centered ApproachThree-Part Policy ArchitectureTwo-Part Commitments for Industrialized CountriesUNFCCC Impact Response Instrument

Post-Kyoto Proposals

Ability to PayAgreed Domestic Carbon TaxesBottom-UpBrazilian ProposalBroad but Shallow BeginningClimate Marshall PlanContraction and ConvergenceConverging MarketsDomestic Hybrid Trading SchemesDual Intensity TargetsDual TrackEqual Mitigation CostsExpanded “Common but Differentiated”Further DifferentiationGlobal FrameworkGlobal Preference ScoreGlobal TriptychGraduation and DeepeningGrowth BaselinesHarmonized Common TaxesHuman Development Goals w/ Low EmissionsHybrid International Emissions Trading

Insurance for Adaptation Funded by Emissions Trading International Agreements on Energy EfficiencyKeep It Simple, Stupid (KISS)Long-Term Permit ProgramMulti-Dimensional StructureMulti-Sector ConvergenceMultistage and New MultistageOrchestra of TreatiesParallel Climate PolicyPer Capita AllocationPortfolio ApproachPurchase of a Global Public GoodSafety ValveSafety Valve with Buyer LiabilitySoft Landing in Emissions GrowthSouth-North DialogueSustainable Development Policies and MeasuresTechnology Backstop ProtocolTechnology-Centered ApproachThree-Part Policy ArchitectureTwo-Part Commitments for Industrialized CountriesUNFCCC Impact Response Instrument

Post-Kyoto Proposals

Tonnes

3.3

Tonnes

How to decide?

1. Stabilize climate: yes

2. Cost effective: yes

3. Equitable: yes

4. Flexible: yes

5. Complementary and continuous: yes

6. Politically palatable: mixed

• end