powerpoint · pdf filemiddle class affluent % employment, ... index pension benefits to...
Post on 23-Mar-2018
216 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Internet: oe.cd/20d
OECD
OECD Economics
2017 MULTIDIMENSIONAL ECONOMIC
SURVEY OF ARGENTINA
Towards a more prosperous and
inclusive Argentina
Buenos Aires, July 2017
2
Main messages
• Following years of unsustainable economic policies,
Argentina has undertaken ambitious reforms.
• But the work is far from being finished. Many
challenges still lie ahead.
3
Argentina has lost grounds in terms of incomes
Source: OECD calculations based on Bolt and Van Zanden (2014) (see http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/data.htm).
Poverty and inequality have fallen but
remain very high
Source: Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) 2016 and OECD Income Distribution Database (2016)
5
Significant macroeconomic imbalances have built up:
Fiscal deficit
Source: CEIC, Datastream, Ministerio de Hacienda
6
Significant macroeconomic imbalances have built up:
Inflation
1. Based on the Congress CPI, only for the greater Buenos Aires area.
Source: INDEC, Diputados del Congreso Indice Nacional
7
Growth was not sustainable
Source: INDEC
8
Further reforms will bring susbtantial benefits
Source: OECD computations.
9
First challenge:
Ensuring sound and sustainable
macroeconomics
10
Bringing down inflation will be challenging
Source: BCRA, CEIC.
11
Public expenditure and taxes are high
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, October 2016.
12
There is scope for reducing expenditures
Los subsidios están siendo
reducidos pero todavía
representan el 2.2% del PIB.
Source: OECD calculations, Ministerio de Hacienda, OECD/IDB/CIAT (2016), Taxing Wages and Taxing Wages in Latin America and the Caribbean, OECD Publishing, Paris.
13
The tax system is not very efficient
Income threshold where single taxpayers start paying income tax, as a multiple of the average wage
1. For India, the average worker income is for the organised manufacturing sector as reported in the Annual Survey of Industries.
Source: OECD calculations for Argentina (based on 2016 data), Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa; and OECD Taxing Wages 2016 for the rest of the countries;
OECD Government at a glance (2016).
14
Key recommendations
Macroeconomic policies
Reinforce the independence of the Central Bank by limiting the possibilities for dismissal of the governor.
Simplify the Central Bank’s mandate, prioritising price stability.
Continue to to pursue planned fiscal targets.
Phase out energy subsidies, rationalise public employment and achieve further cost savings in state-owned enterprises.
Undertake a revenue-neutral tax reform, including
- Lowering the income threshold where taxpayers start paying personal income taxes and ensuring a progressive rate schedule.
- Introducing progressivity into social security contributions.
- Phasing out the provincial turnover tax and financial transaction tax.
15
Second challenge:
Raising productivity and living standards
16
Investment and productivity growth have been low
Source: OECD and CEP (Centro de Estudios de la Productividad).
17
Barriers to entrepreneurship are high and regulatory
procedures are complex
Source: OECD Product market regulation database
18
More young firms and start-ups are needed
Source: OECD computations based on World Bank Enterprise survey database.
19
Few companies are headed by female managers
Source: World Bank Enterprise survey database.
20
Argentina is only sparsely integrated into the global
economy
Source: IMF International Financial Statistics; OECD Economic Outlook 100 database;
21
Better training can help to find new jobs
Source: World Bank ASPIRE database and OECD Stats. Data pertain to 2014 or latest available year.
22
Key recommendations
Strengthening productivity and investment
Simplify administrative procedures to start a company.
Ensure that the competition authority has autonomy and adequate resources.
Lower import tariffs and further reduce the application of non-automatic import licenses.
Protect workers with unemployment insurance and training rather than strict labour regulations.
Develop the vocational education system
Better align curriculums with labour market needs.
Promote gender equity.
23
Third challenge:
Reducing poverty and inequality
24
Transfer programmes reduce poverty and inequality
Source: OECD estimates.
Half the population is poor or at risk of falling into
poverty, particularly children
Source: Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) 2016 ; OECD Income Distribution Database (2016)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Argentina LAC 9 OECD
% of population Relative poverty by age group
Children (<18) Youths (18-25) Adults (26-65) Elderly (>65)
Poor 31%
At risk of falling into poverty 20%
Middle Class 44%
Affluent 6%
26
The sustainability of the pension system is at risk
Source: OECD Pensions at a glance, 2016.
Pension levels are high relative to working-age wages
0
20
40
60
80
100
Poor At risk of falling
into poverty
Middle Class
Affluent
% Employment, 2016
Creating quality jobs is crucial for eliminating poverty
in a sustainable manner
Source: Encuesta Permanente de Hogares (EPH) 2016 and CEDLAC (2016).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
GT
M
HN
D
BR
A
PE
R
NIC
ME
X
PR
Y
CO
L
SLV
BO
L
DO
M
PA
N
CR
I
UR
Y
EC
U
AR
G
CH
L
Percentage point Gap in employment among adult and youth population, 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
Poor At riskof falling
into poverty
Middle Class
Affluent
% of employment
Informality, 2016
28
Female labour participation is low
Source: OECDstat, 2015, EPH (INDEC), 2016 for Argentina.
Improving access, quality and equity in the
education system is a priority
0
20
40
60
80
100
ISR
DE
U
AU
S
FR
A
OE
CD
CH
L
ITA
AR
G
CO
L
ES
P
BR
A
TU
R
ME
X
% Education secondary (population aged 25-34)
0
10
20
30
40
50
AU
S
ISR
ES
P
OE
CD
JPN
DE
U
CO
L
CH
L
TU
R
ME
X
ITA
AR
G
% Education tertiary (population aged 25-34)
Source : UNESCO (2016), OECD PISA (2016), OECD Education at a Glance (2016) y EPH 2016 (INDEC).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
UR
Y
ME
X
BR
A
LAC
CR
I
CO
L
AR
G
ES
P
ISL
ITA
PR
T
CH
L
HU
N
ES
T
EU
GB
R
NO
R
BE
L
DE
U
FR
A
LUX
FIN
NLD
GR
C
DN
K
AU
T
SW
E
IRL
SV
K
CZ
E
PO
L
CH
E
SV
N
% Young people (18- 24 aged) who did not finish the secondary, 2014
Improving skills brings short-term and long-term
benefits
0
20
40
60
80
FRA ESP ITA CRI AUT OECD MEX LAC DEU COL ISR ARG TUR JAP
% Percentage of firms identifying difficulty in filling jobs , 2016
Source: ManPower (2016), UNESCO (2016), y EPH 2016 (INDEC).
0
10
20
30
40
50
PE
R
BR
A
CA
N
CO
L
JPN
AR
G
GR
C
ES
P
ME
X
FR
A
DE
U
LAC
ISR
CH
L
TU
R
CR
I
OE
CD
SW
E
PO
L
AU
S
ITA
AU
T
CH
E
FIN
NLD
% Percentage of secondary students enrolled in vocational education 2015
31
Key recommendations
Reducing inequalities
Integrate existing social protection programmes and allow them to share registries and targeting tools.
Index pension benefits to consumer prices and align retirement ages for women to those for men.
Merge teacher training institutions and strengthen their quality standards, governance, accounting requirements and transparency.
Strengthen mechanisms to identify and support students at risk of dropping out through tutoring and individualised support..
Expand early childhood education, promote flexible working time arrangements and extend paternity leave.
Lower social security contributions temporarily for low-paid workers whose jobs are brought into the formal sector.
Scale up training, employment services, and simplify administrative procedures to start a company
Enforce formalisation and compliance with more labour inspections.
For more information…
OECD
OECD Economics
Disclaimers:
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without
prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers
and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
32
http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-argentina.htm
oe.cd/20d
top related