presentación de mercado maiz julio 2020 bolsa ......2020/07/28 · fundamentos del mercado de maiz...
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ED&F Man Capital Markets
ED&F Man Capital Markets
Presentación de MERCADO MAIZ JULIO 2020
Bolsa Mercantil de Colombia
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COVID – Situacion Actual
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COVID – Situacion Actual - Mini S&P & VIX Index
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Mercado MAÍZ
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Cuáles son los participantes más importantes? Escenarios 19/20 y 20/21
Corn Market
Source: USDA
US
45.1 | 54.6
(-9.5) | (-)
1
Brazil
34.0 | 38.0
(-4.0) | (-)
Argentina
37.0 | 34.0
(+3.0) | (-)
3
2
Mexico
17.0 | 18.3
(-1,3) | (-)
2
EU
21.5 | 23.0
(-1.5) | (-)
1
Egypt
10.3 | 11.0
(-0.7) | (-)
6
Southeast Asia
18.2 | 18.1
(+0.4) | (0.3)
3
South Korea
11.4 | 11.8
(-0.4) | (-)
5
Japan
16.0 | 16.0
(-) | (-)
4
Ukraine
32.0 | 33.0
(-1.0) (-)
4
Top Exporters
Top Importers
Top Exports and Importers | Corn (M ton)
19/20 | 20/21
(Jul vs Jun)
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Mientras Sudamérica cosecha, el cereal está en desarrollo en US
Corn Market
Corn Crop Calendar – Stages by Month
Source: Refinitiv, ED&F Man
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Argentina
Brazil (Summer)
Brazil (Winter)
Ukraine
U.S.
Planting
Harvest
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En Brasil, la cosecha de invierno representa más del 70% y la exportación es su principal destino
Corn Market85%
82%
73%
75%
78%
75%
71%
68%
66%
61%
61%
46%
42%
40%
36%
39%
31%
33%
26%
25%
27%
25
%
22% 2
5% 2
9% 3
2%
34%
39
%
39
% 54% 58%
60
%
64%
61%
69%
67%
74%
75%
42,2
90
35,2
67
47,4
11
42,1
29
35,0
07
42,5
15
51,3
70
58,6
52
51,0
04
56,0
18
57
,40
7 7
2,9
80
81,5
06
80,0
52
84,6
73
66,5
31
97,8
43
80,7
10
100
,04
3
102
,33
7
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6
16/1
7
17/1
8
18/1
9
19/2
0
Corn production – Summer and Winter Crop (‘000 mt)
Source: Conab
Summer corn
Winter corn
Winter Corn production by state (‘000 mt)
Source: Conab
Fcst = 73.5M mt(-0.7M mt MoM)
Mainly in Center West + Paraná
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En el segundo semestre del año es el boom de exportaciones, con la disponibilidad del maíz de invierno
Corn Market
Market predicts increase in ethanol use and animal use that seams overestimated
Brazilian Corn S&D – 19/20 Breakdown (‘000 ton)
Source: Safras & Mercado, Conab, MDIC, ED&F MCM
Summer: Feb/20 – May/20 Winter: Jun/20 – Jan/21
6.6M tonsDespite recent
Conab’s revision our
reading is for an
overestimated use of
corn for ethanol
Only 1.2M tonsexported in June and
beginning of July
~30% harvested
by July 13th 24.0
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Sin embargo, las exportaciones están en modo de espera
Corn Market
Line-up is getting higher, but is still below the multi-year highs seen in 2019
Corn Monthly Exports ('000 tons)Port line-up, volumes still reduced ('000 ton)
Source: MDICSource: Williams
10-Jul-19 10-Jul-20 Var.
Itacoatiara 232 156 -33%
Santana - - -
Santarém 608 401 -34%
Vila do Conde 843 941 12%
Itaqui 367 386 5%
Barra dos Coqueiros - - -
Aratu - - -
Ilheus - - -
Tubarão 341 - -100%
Santos 1,732 2,341 35%
Paranaguá 1,315 435 -67%
Imbituba 267 195 -27%
São Francisco do Sul 373 - -100%
Rio Grande - - -
6,078 4,854 -20%
Line-up ('000 ton)
Total
Port
Corn - Jul
N
NE
SE
S
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Exportaciones de Brasil
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Por otro lado, las primas de exportación indican fuerte demanda
Corn Market
Strong premium post-harvest (Aug and Sep)
Export Premium in Paranaguá for August (c/bu)
Source: Ary Oleofar, Bloomberg
Export Premium in Paranaguá for September (c/bu)
Source: Ary Oleofar, Bloomberg
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Spot fortalecido nuevamente ante la devaluación del real y la demanda
Corn Market
Cash Prices Spot – Brazil (BRL/bag)
Source: Refinitiv, ESALQ
BMF
North of Paraná
Rio Verde, GO
Sorriso, MT
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21%
4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
A M J J A S O N
5Y Max/Min 5Y Avg 18/19 19/20
94%
61%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
A M J J A S
3Y Max/Min 3Y Avg 18/19 19/20
La cosecha está retrasando las exportaciones
Corn Market
Center-South harvest
at 32% (vs 48% in 18/19)
Winter corn harvest in Mato Grosso (% of area)
Source: IMEA
Winter corn harvest in Paraná (% of area)
Source: Deral
Source: Safras
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Y la comercialización de productores locales indica que un buen porcentaje ya está vendido
Corn Market
77%
27%
87%
41%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
J M S J M S J M S
5Y Max/Min 5Y Avg 18/19 19/20 20/21
Mato Grosso farmer selling until July (%)Source: IMEA
In face of high prices in BRL, farmers had no problem fixing
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La cosecha de Argentina está llegando a su fin. Cómo va el ritmo de exportación?
Corn Market
Corn Crop Calendar – Stages by Month
Source: Refinitiv, ED&F Man
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Argentina
Brazil (Summer)
Brazil (Winter)
Ukraine
U.S.
Planting
Harvest
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Cosecha en Argentina adelantada respecto a los últimos años, 10 puntos vs. 2019
Corn Market
Argentina - Corn Harvest Progress (%)Source: Bolsa de Cereales; Bloomberg
2020
Crop is forecasted close to historical record at 50M mt
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
M J S D M J S D M
5Y Max/Min
5Y Avg
18/19
19/20
Ventas de productores a exportadores y exportaciones; ambas por encima del promedio
Corn Market
Argentine Accumulated Sales to Exporters (‘000 mt)
Source: Agriculture Ministry of Argentina
US Corn Export Sales - Total Commitments (‘000 mt)
Source: USDA
0,00
500,00
1.000,00
1.500,00
2.000,00
2.500,00
3.000,00
3.500,00
4.000,00
4.500,00
5.000,00
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2020*
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CBOT
BRA BASIS FLAT 15/7/2019 450
2019 -20 169,29 15/7/2020 330
2020 60 153,54
AR BASIS FLAT
2019 0 177,17
2020 50 149,61
USA BASIS FLAT
2019 60 200,79
2020 80 161,42
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Nueva campaña en foco: cultivo 20/21 en US
Corn Market
Corn Crop Calendar – Stages by Month
Source: Refinitiv, ED&F Man
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Argentina
Brazil (Summer)
Brazil (Winter)
Ukraine
U.S.
Planting
Harvest
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29 25 21 3144 44 58 54 56 57
314 273 351 361 346 385 371 366 346 381
-279 -263 -293 -302 -299 -314 -314 -310 -301 -317
-39-19 -49 -47 -48 -58 -62 -58 -45 -55
8% 7%9%
13% 13%
16%14% 14%
16%18%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21
Beginning Stocks Production Use Exports Imports S/U
Estados Unidos – Oferta & Demanda
Corn Market
US Corn - Supply & Demand (M mt)
Source: USDA
Despite acreage disappearance, huge production and growing S/U are expected for 20/21 crop
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Las compras de China trajeron algo de optimismo al maíz estadounidense
Corn Market
US Corn Exp Sales – Commitments to China (‘000 mt)
Source: USDA
US Corn Export Sales - Total Commitments (‘000 mt)
Source: USDA
But overall, the export commitments are still somewhat distant from the USDA forecast
35,981
7,509
19/20 USDA as of Jul 2020: 45,090
52,826
60,400
47,419
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
S O N D J F M A M J J A S
Accumulated Exports - 19/20 Outstanding Sales - 19/20Commitments - 5Y AVG Commitments - 5Y MaxCommitments - 5Y Min
3,70 M tns
NEW CROP
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MAIZ CHINA vs EEUU
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Producción MAIZ CHINA
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Producción MAIZ CHINA
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Evolución USO MAIZ para ETANOL EEUU
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El uso de la industria de etanol aumentó desde mínimos y los precios de DDGs retrocedieron
Corn Market
107,79
53,64
93,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
100,00
110,00
120,00
S-1
9
O-1
9
N-1
9
D-1
9
J-2
0
F-2
0
M-2
0
A-2
0
M-2
0
J-2
0
J-2
0
A-2
0
16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20
Corn use for Fuel Ethanol Production (‘000 mt)
Source: EIA, USDA, ED&F Man
DDG (10% moisture) at Illinois plant (USD/mt)
Source: USDA, Bloomberg
Still the “lost” demand cannot be recovered
Covid-19
lockdown
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Evolución PRODUCCIÓN/ STOCKS SEMANALES ETANOL
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Pasando a la nueva campaña en Us, el reporte de stocks del 30 de Junio sacudió al mercado
Corn Market
CBOT Corn – First expiry (c/bu)
Source: CME, Bloomberg
Stocks or
Acreage?
But in the end prices were set at the same level as a month ago
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ANALISIS TECNICO – Grafico de velas semanales Maiz
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ANALISIS TECNICO – Grafico de velas semanales Maíz
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Posición de los FONDOS (especulativos CHICAGO)
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Posición de los FONDOS (especulativos CHICAGO)
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Cosecha 20/21, próximamente…
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2.1
6
2.1
9
2.4
8
2.3
7
2.2
9
2.6
0
2.5
7
2.3
7
2.3
9
77
.2
76
.8 83
.3
82
.7
83.5 90
.2
89
.2
76
.1 83
.5
83
.8
97
.3
95
.4
90
.6
88
.0 94.0
90
.2
88
.9
89
.7 97
.0
92
.0
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21(M)
20/21(J)
SX/CZ (Nov-Mar Avg) Soybean Area Corn Area
Qué pasó con el área?
Corn Market
Soy/Corn Ratio
Source: Bloomberg, CME
84.8
US Acreage (M ac)
Source: USDA, CME
Area migration
from corn to soy
was expected
Acreage below expectations. It is speculated that Prevented Planting is the reason
Est.:
95.4
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RATIO SOJA/MAIZ
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La seca comienza a extenderse en el Midwest
Corn Market
US Drought MonitorSource: USDA, NOAA, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
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Evolución condición de los cultivos EEUU
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Fundamentos del mercado de MAIZ 20/21
Alcistas
Bajistas
Fundamentos
Alcistas
China está comprandole a US
Recuperación actividad Económica 2020/21
Condiciones Climáticas, definición COSECHA EEUU + Ventas
Fundamentos
Bajistas
Stocks Récord de MAIZ en Estados Unidos.
Riesgo de “segunda ola” de contagios, curva de contagios en US.
Gran cosecha MAIZ en Brasil, competencia EEUU, Segundo semestre 2020.
Mercado de MAIZ
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Even though every effort has been made to guarantee the accuracy of facts here disclosed, this report reflects
simply the views and opinion of the author.
All pricing is indicative and all estimates and opinions included in this document are as of the date of the document and may
be subject to change without notice. E D & F Man Switzerland Limited does not provide legal, tax or accounting advice and
you are responsible for seeking any such advice separately.
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you are requested to return this document immediately and to delete all copies.
E D & F Man Switzerland Limited does not represent or warrant the accuracy of, and will not be responsible for the
consequences of reliance upon any opinion or information contained herein or for any omission therefrom. Further
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Winterthur, Switzerland, is a registered company in Switzerland, number 256.026.389
Pedro Schichi
Market Intelligence
Grains & Soybean Complex
pschichi@edfmancapital.com
Thais Italiani
Market Intelligence
titaliani@edfmancapital.com
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