presentation of c-ciarn british columbia stewart j. cohen, ph.d

PRESENTATION OF C-CIARN BRITISH COLUMBIA

Stewart J. Cohen, Ph.D.

1) Adaptation & Impacts Research Group (AIRG), Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada2) Institute for Resources, Environment & Sustainability

University of British Columbia, Vancouver

Presented to the Senate Standing Committee on Forestry and Agriculture, Ottawa, Feb. 4, 2003.

Summary of Briefing• Temperature and precipitation have increased in British

Columbia• Observed warming has affected growing season length and

the mountain pine beetle• Projected impacts include continued lengthening of the

growing season, increased crop water demand, and increased risk of fire and pest infestations

• Important regional concerns include N.E. BC forests, agriculture in the Okanagan, flood risks in the Georgia Basin, and fisheries & coastal erosion in coastal areas

• More research is needed to better understand adaptation to climate change, and how this could affect resource management & regional development—a role for C-CIARN B.C.

Outline of Presentation

• Climate trends in British Columbia• Climate Impacts & Adaptation Assessment – cases

from B.C.– Okanagan/Columbia: water, agriculture and other users– Forestry: pests, fire

• Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Impacts & Adaptation—C-CIARN B.C.

Average temperatures are increasing in BC

Change in temperature over 20th Century ( °C/100 years)Source: BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection – Environmental Trends, 2000

www.gov.bc.ca/wlap

Source: BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection – Environmental Trends,

2000 www.gov.bc.ca/wlap

Nighttime minimum temperatures are rising faster than daytime maximums.

Glaciers in retreat

Source: IPCC, Third Assessment Report, 2001

Precipitation has increased in southern BC

Change in precipitation over 20th Century ( %/decade)Source: BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection – Environmental Trends, 2000

www.gov.bc.ca/wlap

Lake & river ice is melting earlier in northern and interior BC

Change in date of first melt, 1945-1993 ( days/decade)Source: BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection – Environmental Trends, 2000

www.gov.bc.ca/wlap

Water Management & Climate Change in the

Okanagan/Columbia

Water Resources in the Columbia River Basin

System objectives affected by winter flowsWinter hydropower production (PNW demand)

System objectives affected by summer flowsFlood controlSummer hydropower production (California demand)IrrigationInstream flow for fishRecreation

Source: Alan Hamlet

University of Washington

Columbia Basin Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow

• Less snow, earlier melt means less water in summer – irrigation – urban uses– fisheries protection– energy production

• More water in winter– energy production– flooding

Natural Columbia River flow at the Dalles, Oregon

Source: P. Mote, University of Washington

50

60

70

80

90

100Fi

rm E

nerg

y

Non

-Firm

Ene

rgy

Gra

nd C

oule

e R

ecre

atio

n

Low

er G

rani

te F

ish

Flow

McN

ary

Fish

Flo

w

Sna

ke Ir

rigat

ion

Sna

ke R

iver

Nav

igat

ion

Floo

d C

ontro

l

Current ClimateECHAM4 2040'sPCM 2040's

Will the Columbia Basin System meet its Water Management Objectives in the 2040s?

Source: Alan Hamlet

University of Washington

Okanagan Climate Change Scenario:Implications for Water Management

Projected changes in Growing Degree Days (> 5 C)

Kelowna Airport (Brewer & Taylor, 2001)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Deg

ree

Day

s

1961-90 2020s 2050s 2080s

IrrigationIrrigationdistrictdistrict

AllocationAllocationReportedReported

UseUseCrop water demandCrop water demand SourceSource

1996-991996-99 1961-19901961-1990 2069-20902069-2090

OliverOliver 75.475.4 26.126.1 21.621.6 29.429.4MainMainchannelchannel

PentictonPenticton 8.08.0 7.47.4 6.66.6 9.19.1 Tributary Tributary + Main+ Main

SummerlandSummerland 20.920.9 9.79.7 13.713.7 19.119.1 TributaryTributary

NaramataNaramata 13.613.6 1.91.9 3.73.7 4.94.9 TributaryTributary

Source: Denise Neilsen, Agriculture & Agrifood Canada

N

Penticton

x

Oliver

Okanagan Falls

Skaha Lake

Kelowna

Peachland

VernonOverview of

Okanagan study catchments

Camp Cr. (34

km2)

Dave’s Cr. (31

km2)

Vaseux Cr. (117

km2)

Bellevue Cr. (78 km2)

Whiteman Cr. (114 km2)

Pearson Cr. (73 km2)

Intra-annual flow variability (Dave’s Cr.)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s)

POR202020502080

Intra-annual flow variability (Whiteman Cr)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Dis

char

ge (m

3 /s) POR

2020

2050

2080

Stakeholder views on adaptationEngaging dialogue to identify adaptation strategies to scenarios of streamflow reductions during the growing season in the Okanagan Basin

Web site: http://www.sdri.ubc.ca/publications

Preferred adaptation options among the stakeholders?Structural (e.g. building upland dams) and social measures (e.g., buy out water licenses) preferred over institutional measures

Some implications of their choices?Stakeholders identified the high cost of dams, associated impacts on fisheries, and difficulties in restricting development as possible implications of their adaptation choices.

adaptation dialogue is just beginning...

Water Management & Climate Change in the Okanagan—Study Framework

Forest Management & Climate Change in Interior and

Northern British Columbia

2001: Mountain pine beetle damage

Mountain Pine Beetle

– limits

• Cool summers • Winter

minimums (below -40°C)

ALBERTACOLUMBIABRITISH

-40

Source: Allan Carroll

Canadian Forest Service

Areas of susceptible pine and Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) infestation since 1910A

rea

of s

usce

ptib

le p

ine

(ha

× 10

6 )

MP

B outbreak area (ha × 10

3)

1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 20100

2

4

6

8

10

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

Year

• Frequent large-scale MPB outbreaks during last century

• Size of outbreaks correlated with increase in susceptible pine

Source: Allan Carroll

Canadian Forest Service

Very lowLow

Extreme

ModerateHigh

Climatic suitability

1941 - 1970 1971 - 2000

2001 - 2030 2031 - 2060

Climatically suitable habitat for the mountain pine beetle

Source: Allan Carroll

Canadian Forest Service

Scenario changes to fire weather, BC and Alberta(Mackenzie Basin Impact Study, 1997)

1980s

2050s

Eff ect of elevational transferon Vol/ha of lodgepole pine in SE BC

R2 = 0.42

-80-60-40-20

020406080

-100

0

-800

-600

-400

-200 0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Elevational transfer (m)

Vol/h

a dev

iation

(%) f

rom

'loca

l' so

urce

Source: Greg O’Neill, BCMOF

In SE B.C., Lodgepole Pine seedlings can achieve greater yield if planted at elevations higher than

their origin!

Research has identified some important potential impacts for forestry and agriculture in British Columbia

• BC is already experiencing climate change• Glaciers are receding, affecting summertime water

supply• Future water supply will be affected by changes in

timing of snowmelt; watersheds will likely have more water in winter and less in summer

• Growing seasons will lengthen and become warmer• Forest pest and fire risks will likely increase in interior

BC, and expand to higher elevations and latitudes

Impacts & Adaptation Research in British Columbia: Important New Questions

• How will water supply and demand change?– Increasing population and changes in land use may limit our ability to

adapt to water supply changes.– Climate change may constrain possible adaptation strategies, such as

expanded irrigation, and controlled reservoir releases to support fisheries and electric power production.

• How will climate change alter forest management?– Reforestation plans have to consider climate changes over the lifetime of

newly planted trees.– What will future harvest levels be, and can they sustain communities?

• How will climate risks change for communities?– Are businesses and governments making planning and management

decisions based on the assumption that climate will not change?– How can uncertain climate “scenarios” be incorporated into

assessments of risks and opportunities?

C-CIARN B.C. is Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Impacts & Adaptation

• C-CIARN BC and partners are holding workshops with academic researchers – UBC, Okanagan College, University of Victoria, Malaspina

College, Simon Fraser University• C-CIARN BC and partners are initiating dialogue with

stakeholders throughout BC– Columbia Basin (Cranbrook), northern BC (UNBC and region)

• Through this process, stakeholders and researchers are raising concerns about:– Need for expanded monitoring programs– Vulnerability of regional economies and questions about

adaptation options– Concerns about impacts on health and lifestyle– Unknown potential for “surprise” impacts

C-CIARN BC is Promoting New Research Opportunities in Climate

Impacts & Adaptation

• Encourage stakeholder participation in earliest phases of impacts/adaptation research.– Promotes interdisciplinary collaboration and the

application of local knowledge and experience• Identify potential new vulnerabilities or adaptation

opportunities that should be studied.– Adapting to climate change is about becoming more

resilient to current and future climate variability and risks

C-CIARN B.C. Advisory Committee Affiliates:Agriculture and Agrifood Canada (AAFCa)

BC Hydro

Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment

Canadian Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fisheries Commission

Community Representative (East Kootenays)

Environment Canada (EC)

Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD)

Ministry of Water Land and Air Protection (MWLAP)

Okanagan University College (OUC)

Royal Roads University (RRU)

Simon Fraser University (SFU)

University of British Columbia (UBC)

University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC)

University of Victoria (UVic)

More information:http://britishcolumbia.c-ciarn.ca

Contact:c-ciarn-bc@ires.ubc.ca