proceedings of the 18th advances in risk and …proceedings of the 18th advances in risk and...
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CONTENTS
Foreword 1
L M Bartlett, Loughborough University
Reliability Analysis Including Load Flow and Power Demand in Power System 3
A. B. Svendsen, T. Digernes, Y. Aab0 and J. Eman, Troll Power AS
Wind Power Modeling and the Determination of Capacity Credit in an Electric 18
Power SystemR. Billinton and D. Huang, University of Saskatchewan
An Investigation into Using Oil Replenishment Data as a Factor to Prioritise the 30
Replacement of Extra High Voltage Electrical Cable
S. Blake, P. Taylor, P. Tavner and G. Howarth, Durham University and CE
Electric UK
Assessing Systems Reliability: A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Approach 42
M. Morcos, Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Systems EngineeringInnovation Centre (SEIC), Loughborough University
An Argument-Based Approach to the Integration of Safety and Design 55
K. Attwood, P. Wilkinson and T. Kelly, University of York and Rolls-Royce Civil
Aerospace Controls
A New Approach for the Analysis of the Near Misses in the Framework of the 65
Safety Management SystemP. Agnello, S. Ansaldi, P. Bragatto and P. Pittiglio, Italian Institute for
Occupational Safety and Prevention
Integrating Safety into System Design with SysML 78
P. Wilkinson, M. Novak and A. Mavin, Rolls-Royce PLC
The Development of a Unique Report for Performance Monitoring in an Airline 90
Safety Management SystemM. C. Leva, J. Cahill, A. M. Kay, G. Losa and N.McDonald, Trinity College,Dublin and Iberia Airlines
Probabilistic Modelling with Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Aircraft Crash 103
on Nuclear Power Plant
R. Alzbutas, K. Kupciuniene and G. Dundulis, Lithuanian Energy Institute
The Use of Modelling and Simulation in the Design of a Service Support System 116
for Aircraft Engines
J-P. Li and G. Thompson, University of Manchester
Reliability of 2-out-of-N Redundant Safety-Critical Systems with a Time- 126
varying Single-component Failure Rate
V. M. Dwyer, Electronic and Electrical Engineering, Loughborough University
Measures of Component State Importance in Multi-State Systems 138
E. Zaitseva, University of Zilina
Application of Kernel Estimators for the Analysis of Failure Data
H. Schabe, TUV Rheinland InterTraffic GmbH
150
Application of Bayesian Networks into the Risk Based Inspection Methodologies 161
F. De Carlo and 0. Borgia, University of Florence
Risk Prediction, Regulation, Perception, Acceptance and Avoidance: A General 172
TheoryR. B. Duffey and J. W. Saull, Atomic Energy of Canada Limited and International
Federation ofAirworthiness
Historical Exploration - Learning Risk Lessons from the Past to Inform the 184
Future
T. Bedford, J. Quigley, M. Revie and L. Walls, University of Strathclyde
On Nonparametric Predictive Inference for Competing Risks 196
T. Maturi, P. Coolen-Schrijner and F. Coolen, Durham University
Nonparametric Predictive Inference for Acceptance Sampling with Destructive 212
Tests
M. Elsaeiti and F. Coolen, Durham University
New Plotting Positions Approach to Reliability Estimates from Small and 221
Censored Samples
P. Erto and A. Lepore, University ofNaples
High Performance Reliability Analysis of Phased Mission Systems 228
S. Reed, S. J. Dunnett and J. D. Andrews, Aeronautical and Automotive
Engineering, Loughborough University
Optimal Mission Reconfiguration for UAVs in Response to Changing 256
Environmental and Operational Conditions
K. Brazenaite, J. D. Andrews and W. H. Chen, Aeronautical and Automotive
Engineering, Loughborough University
Probability of Failure on Demand According to IS061508 - A Comparative 279
Examination of Analytical Calculations and Monte Carlo Simulations
J. R. Muller, T. Stander and E. Schnieder, University of Braunschweig
Use of Bayes Linear Modelling in a Defence Procurement Project to Support 291
Assessment of the Reliability Case
M. Revie, T. Bedford, R. Denning and L. Walls, University of Strathclyde
Phased Mission Modelling and Reconfiguration of Multi-Platform Systems using 303
BDDs
R. Remenyte-Prescott, D. Prescott and J. D. Andrews, Aeronautical and
Automotive Engineering, Loughborough University
Use of Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning Based CREAM to Facilitate the 318
Quantification of Human Failures in Maritime OperationsZ. Yang, M. Usman and J. Wang, Liverpool John Moores University
Prediction of the Residual Life of a Steel Bridge 325
L Gajdos and V. Svoboda, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic and
Preditest Ltd
Reliability Analysis of a Control System Built using Remote Redundancy 335
K. Echtle, T. Kimmeskamp, S. Jacquet, O. Malasse, M. Pock and M. Walter,Universitat Duisburg-Essen, Arts et Metiers ParisTech Metz and Technische
Universitat Munchen
System Failure Minimisation Using Automated Design Optimisation 347
D, Astapenko and L. M. Bartlett, Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering,Loughborough University
Use of Bayesian Belief Networks in a Dynamic Fault Diagnostic Application 360
M. Lampis and J. D. Andrews, Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering,
Loughborough University
Modelling Availability Including Grace Periods 385
L Bednara and J. A. M. van der Weide, Delft University of Technology
Nonparametric Predictive System Reliability with Redundancy Allocation 396
Following Component TestingA. Aboalkhair, F. Coolen and I. MacPhee, Durham University
Optimization of Test Interval of Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant Auxiliary Feedwater 408
Pumps
R. Voronov and R. Alzbutas, Lithuanian Energy Institute
A Cause Consequence Analysis Approach to Modelling Multi-Platform Phased 419
Missions
D. Prescott and J. D. Andrews, Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering,Loughborough University
Severe Accident Simulation and Uncertainty Analysis Considering Dynamic 438
Reliability
R. Alzbutas, Lithuanian Energy Institute
An Integrated Design Optimisation Approach for Systems with DependenciesJ. Riauke and L. M. Bartlett, Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering,
Loughborough University
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