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Cambodia, December 20041
Cambodia, December 2004
1
Production Curve Modeling
Dr. Alfred Kjemperud
Cambodia, December 20042
Cambodia, December 2004
2
Costs
Income
Time
Government
Phases and Lead Time
Pre-license Exploration Development Production AbandonmentProduction
Rehab.
Con
trac
t aw
ard
PDO
Lead Time
Cambodia, December 20043
Cambodia, December 2004
3
Production curve
Time
Volume
Build-up
Plateau
Decline
Cutoff
Lead TimeStart-up
Volume produced
on plateau
Plateau rate
Cambodia, December 20044
Cambodia, December 2004
4
Factors determining production
• No of wells• P/R ratio (%)
– Production on plateau/Reserve• Production rate per well• Plateau production rate• Remaining oil/gas at start decline• Decline rate (%)• Rate at Cut-off
Cambodia, December 20045
Cambodia, December 2004
5
P/R ratios• Large to Medium Fields: 5-10%• Small Fields: 15-20%
– Nkossa, Congo(440 mmbbl) 9%– Numbi, South, Angola (205) 10%– Zafiro, Eq. Guinea (105) 14%– Oombo, Angola (48)– Lubi, DRC (1) 30%– S. Asoma, Cameroon (1) 84%
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Cambodia, December 20046
Cambodia, December 2004
6
Oil ProductionOil Production
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Year
Thou
sand
bbl
/yea
r
Oil [Thousand bbl/d]Assoc. Gas [Thousand o.e./d]
Cambodia, December 20047
Cambodia, December 2004
7
Gas ProductionGas Production
0.0
500.0
1000.0
1500.0
2000.0
2500.0
3000.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Year
Gas
(Mill
ion
scf/d
ay)
Con
dens
ate
(Tho
usan
d bb
l/d)
Non Assoc. Gas [Million scf/d]Condensate [Thousand bbl/d
Cambodia, December 20048
Cambodia, December 2004
8
Statfjord Oil - NorwayOil Production - Statfjord, Norway560 million Sm3 (3520 Million bbl)
23 %
66 %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
200220012000199919981997199619951994199319921991199019891988198719861985198419831982198119801979
Years
Mill
ion
Sm3
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
Oil Production
P/R percentage
P/R = 6.6
Cambodia, December 20049
Cambodia, December 2004
9
Oseberg Oil - NorwayOil Production - Oseberg Field, Norway
350 million Sm3 (2200 million bbl)
39.2 %
70.5 %
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001200019991998199719961995199419931992199119901989198819871986
Years
Mill
ion
Sm3
0.0 %
10.0 %
20.0 %
30.0 %
40.0 %
50.0 %
60.0 %
70.0 %
80.0 %
90.0 %
100.0 %
Oil Production
P/R percentage
P/R = 8.3%
Cambodia, December 200410
Cambodia, December 2004
10
Frigg Gas - NorwayGas Production - Frigg Field, Norway
116 billion Sm3 (4.1 TCF)
63.9 %
29.8 %
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20022001200019991998199719961995199419931992199119901989198819871986198519841983198219811980197919781977
Years
Mill
ion
Sm3
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Gasl Production
P/R percentage
Cambodia, December 200411
Cambodia, December 2004
11
Indonesia Field AProduction
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Condensate (MMbbl/y)
Oil (MMbbl/y)
GAS (Bcf/y)
Cambodia, December 200412
Cambodia, December 2004
12
Attaka South, Indonesia
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
BO
PD
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
oil (bpd)gas (MMcfd)
Cambodia, December 200413
Cambodia, December 2004
13
Troll Gas - NorwayGas Production, Troll Field, Norway
1325 Bill. Sm3 (47TCF)
8.9 %
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990
Mill
ion
Sm3
0.0 %
1.0 %
2.0 %
3.0 %
4.0 %
5.0 %
6.0 %
7.0 %
8.0 %
9.0 %
10.0 %
Build-up
Cambodia, December 200414
Cambodia, December 2004
14
Rules of ThumbTECHNICAL ASPECTS Rule of Thumb• Peak production one year/total reserves 10-12%• Decline rate 10-12%
Cambodia, December 200415
Cambodia, December 2004
15
Production curve modeling in GeoX
• Recoverable reserves- Production well drilling rate
- Low value increase production time- Initial max well production rate
- Low value prolong build up phase- Max number of oil producers
- Low value prolongs plateau- Well plateau factor
- High value prolongs plateau- Fraction produced yearly at plateau
- Low value prolongs plateau- Plateau level constraints
- Low value will prolong plateau- Fraction oil remaining at start decline
- Low value prolong plateau- Field decline rate
- Low value prolongs decline
The parameters are interdependent
and changes may have other effects that those indicated
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