project azure - honduras
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Seismic Hazard Assessment
HONDURAS
PROJECT ZURE
Presented by:
David Gutirrez Rivera
101082
June/2013
NHRE- Natural Hazards and Risks in Structural Engineering
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CONTENTS
Page
INTRODUCTION -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2
1) SITE DESCRIPTION ---------------------------------------------------------------- 3a) Main Cities (Reference Sites)------------------------------------------------- 5
b) Topography ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 6c) Geology ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7d) Subsoil Conditions --------------------------------------------------------------- 8
2) REGION TECTONIC AND SEISMICITY ---------------------------------------- 9a) Tectonic Plates -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9b) Faults -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10c) Seismicity --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11d) Catalog Completeness Analysis ---------------------------------------------- 13e) Seismic Sources Classification ----------------------------------------------- 14
3) SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT---------------------------------------------- 15a) Sources Seismicity (Gutenberg-Richter) ----------------------------------- 16
b) Ground Motion Prediction Equation (Attenuation Relation) ----------- 18c) Probability of Exceedance ----------------------------------------------------- 20
4) ELASTIC RESPONSE SPECTRA------------------------------------------------ 22a) Earthquake Time Histories----------------------------------------------------- 22b) Site Specific Response Spectra ---------------------------------------------- 26c) Recommended Design Spectra ---------------------------------------------- 28
5) COMPARISONS WITH EURO-CODE------------------------------------------ 306) COMPARISONS WITH NATIONAL CODE------------------------------------ 33
REFERENCES ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 35
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INTRODUCTION
This study consists in the development of ground prediction models and seismic hazard
assessment of the region of Honduras. With the collected data from Honduras and
neighboring countries, regional aspects and seismic related parameters some ground
prediction models are developed, like the attenuation relation, with which we are able to
predict ground motion in a site. With this we have developed a seismic hazard assessment of
the region, for 5 sites in Honduras. Making use of earthquakes time histories from the region
weve obtained as a result response spectra for each one of the sites, with which we havecome up with a recommended design spectra for the Country. Finally we compare this with
the National Code and the EuroCode and give some conclusions about the results obtained.
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Project Azure Seismic Hazard Assessment HONDURAS
SITE DESCRIPTION
Honduras is a country situated inCentral America,it borders theCaribbean Sea on the north
coast and the Pacific Ocean on the south through theGulf of Fonseca.It mostly lies between
latitudes13 and17N,and longitudes83 and90W.Guatemala lies to the west,Nicaragua
south east and El Salvador to the south west. It is the second largest Central American
republic. This triangular-shaped country has a total area of just over 110,000 km2. Honduras
controls a number of islands as part of its offshore territories. In the Caribbean Sea, the
islands of Roatn (Isla de Roatn), Utila, and Guanaja together form Islas de la Baha (Bay
Islands), one of the eighteen departments into which Honduras is divided.Roatn,the largest
of the three islands, is fifty kilometers long by five kilometers wide.
Honduras is divided into 18departments,listed in the table below:
Department Department capital Population (2001) Area (km2)
1. Atlntida La Ceiba 344,099 4,251
2. Choluteca Choluteca 390,805 4,211
3. Coln Trujillo
246,708 8,8754. Comayagua Comayagua 352,881 5,196
5. Copn Santa Rosa de Copn 288,766 3,203
6. Corts San Pedro Sula 1,202,510 3,954
7. El Paraso Yuscarn 350,054 7,218
8. Francisco Morazn Tegucigalpa 1,180,676 7,946
9. Gracias a Dios Puerto Lempira 67,384 16,630
10. Intibuc La Esperanza 179,862 3,072
11. Islas de la Baha Roatn 38,073 261
12. La Paz La Paz 156,560 2,331
13. Lempira Gracias 250,067 4,290
14. Ocotepeque Nueva Ocotepeque 108,029 1,680
15. Olancho Juticalpa 419,561 24,351
16. Santa Brbara Santa Brbara 342,054 5,115
17. Valle Nacaome 151,841 1,56518. Yoro Yoro 465,414 7,939
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Americahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caribbean_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Fonsecahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/13th_parallel_northhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/17th_parallel_northhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/83rd_meridian_westhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/90th_meridian_westhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guatemalahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaraguahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Salvadorhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islas_de_la_Bah%C3%ADahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roat%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Departments_of_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atl%C3%A1ntida_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atl%C3%A1ntida_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ceibahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ceibahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choluteca_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choluteca_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choluteca,_Cholutecahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choluteca,_Cholutecahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Col%C3%B3n_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trujillo,_Col%C3%B3nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trujillo,_Col%C3%B3nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comayagua_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comayagua_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comayaguahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comayaguahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cop%C3%A1n_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Rosa_de_Cop%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Rosa_de_Cop%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cort%C3%A9s_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Pedro_Sulahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Pedro_Sulahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Para%C3%ADso_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Para%C3%ADso_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuscar%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Moraz%C3%A1n_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tegucigalpahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tegucigalpahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gracias_a_Dios_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gracias_a_Dios_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerto_Lempirahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerto_Lempirahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intibuc%C3%A1_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intibuc%C3%A1_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Esperanza,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Esperanza,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_Islands_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_Islands_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roat%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Paz_(Honduran_department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Paz,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lempira_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lempira_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gracias,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gracias,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocotepeque_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocotepeque_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nueva_Ocotepequehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nueva_Ocotepequehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olancho_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olancho_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juticalpahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juticalpahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_B%C3%A1rbara_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_B%C3%A1rbara_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_B%C3%A1rbara,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_B%C3%A1rbara,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valle_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nacaomehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoro_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yorohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yorohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yoro_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nacaomehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valle_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_B%C3%A1rbara,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_B%C3%A1rbara_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juticalpahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olancho_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nueva_Ocotepequehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocotepeque_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gracias,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lempira_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Paz,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Paz_(Honduran_department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roat%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_Islands_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Esperanza,_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intibuc%C3%A1_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerto_Lempirahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gracias_a_Dios_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tegucigalpahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Moraz%C3%A1n_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuscar%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Para%C3%ADso_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Pedro_Sulahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cort%C3%A9s_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Rosa_de_Cop%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cop%C3%A1n_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comayaguahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comayagua_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trujillo,_Col%C3%B3nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Col%C3%B3n_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choluteca,_Cholutecahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choluteca_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Ceibahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atl%C3%A1ntida_(department)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Departments_of_Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roat%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islas_de_la_Bah%C3%ADahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Salvadorhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaraguahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guatemalahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/90th_meridian_westhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/83rd_meridian_westhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/17th_parallel_northhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/13th_parallel_northhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Fonsecahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caribbean_Seahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_America 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Project Azure Seismic Hazard Assessment HONDURAS
The capital city of Honduras is Tegucigalpa Central District of the department ofFranciscoMorazn. The 18 departments of Honduras are divided into 298 municipalities
(municipalidades).
The population in Honduras is near the 8.0 million. The most populated Departments are:
Corts (1.2 million), Francisco Morazn (1.2 million), Yoro (466,000), Olancho (420,000),Choluteca (391,000) and Comayagua (353,000). The least populated is Gracias a Dios. The
main cities are: Tegucigalpa (894,000 hab.-Distrito Central only-), San Pedro Sula (517,000
hab.), Choloma (160,000 hab.), La Ceiba (140,00 hab.), El Progreso (106,000 hab.), Choluteca,
Comayagua, Puerto Cortes, La Lima and Danli. However, the main metropolitan areas are
Tegucigalpa (1,200,000 hab. -est. 2007-) and San Pedro Sula (900,000 hab. -est. 2007-).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tegucigalpahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Moraz%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Moraz%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hondurashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Moraz%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Moraz%C3%A1nhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tegucigalpa -
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Main Cities (Reference Sites)
Definitely the 2 most important cities in Honduras are Tegucigalpa (the capital of the Country)
and San Pedro Sula, the economically most important city in Honduras. In order to choose
reference sites for this study we defined the following characteristics for each site:
- Population Density
- Importance Aspect
- Seismicity Level
- Location
So taking in to account the above mentioned factors, besides Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula,we chose also Choluteca, Roatan and Puerto Cortes. Choluteca has the highest seismicity
zone and also located to the south of the country, near the borders with el Salvador and
Nicaragua, being the closest most important city to the Mesoamerican Trench of the Cocos
Plate. Also has a significant and developing economical importance as a trading place. Sharing
this same economical aspect is Puerto Cortes, the most important port of the country. And
there is Roatan, which importance and activity rely more in tourism, is location is quite
peculiar and so is its seismicity hazard level.
Therefore the Main Cities or Reference Sites chosen for this study are:
1) San Pedro Sula [SPS]
2) Tegucigalpa [TGU]
3) Puerto Cortes [PC]
4) Choluteca
5) Roatan
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Project Azure Seismic Hazard Assessment HONDURAS
Topography
Honduras has three distinct topographical regions: an extensive interior highland area and
two narrow coastal lowlands. The interior, which constitutes approximately 80 percent of
the country's terrain, is mountainous. The larger Caribbean lowlands in the north and the
Pacific lowlands bordering the Gulf of Fonseca are characterized by alluvial plains.
In the west, Honduras's mountains blend into the mountain ranges of Guatemala. The
western mountains have the highest peaks, with thePico Congoln at an elevation of 2,500
meters and the Cerro Las Minas at 2,850 meters. The Honduran border with El Salvador
crosses the peak ofCerro El Pital,the highest point in El Salvador at over 2700 meters. These
mountains are woodland covered with mainly pine forests.
In the east, the mountains merge with those in Nicaragua. Although generally not as high as
the mountains near the Guatemalan border, the eastern ranges possess some high peaks,
such as theMontaa de la Flor at 2,300 meters,El Boquern (Monte El Boquern)at 2,485
meters, andPico Bonito at 2,435 meters.
One of the most prominent features of the interior highlands is a depression that runs from
the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Fonseca. This depression splits the country'scordilleras into
eastern and western parts and provides a relatively easy transportation route across the
isthmus. Widest at its northern end near San Pedro Sula, the depression narrows as it follows
the upper course of theRo Humuya.Passing first through Comayagua and then through
narrow passes south of the city, the depression widens again as it runs along the border of El
Salvador into the Gulf of Fonseca.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Pico_Congol%C3%B3n&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerro_Las_Minashttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerro_El_Pitalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Monta%C3%B1a_de_la_Flor&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=El_Boquer%C3%B3n&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Monte_El_Boquer%C3%B3n&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pico_Bonitohttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cordillerahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=R%C3%ADo_Humuya&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=R%C3%ADo_Humuya&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cordillerahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pico_Bonitohttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Monte_El_Boquer%C3%B3n&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=El_Boquer%C3%B3n&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Monta%C3%B1a_de_la_Flor&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerro_El_Pitalhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerro_Las_Minashttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Pico_Congol%C3%B3n&action=edit&redlink=1 -
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Geology
The relative geological youth of the region and its volcanic activity, combined with a tropical
climate, humid, creating a landscape rich in natural hazards. There are four major risks to
consider.
1. The geological activity that originally built this landscape still exists, so the threat of
volcanic eruptions and earthquakes also exist.
2. Earthquakes and associated movements of the crust to the sea can generate
tsunamis or tidal waves, which threaten the coastal areas.
3. The steep topography created by geological activity in the region is susceptible to
landslides. The heavy rains that characterize the region and strong winds thataccompany hurricanes exacerbate this threat.
4. The abundant rainfall in the region may cause erosion of sedimentary deposits of
marine origin (limestone, dolomite, Marla and marble), resulting in the formation of
large holes and tunnels, such subsidence can create significant erosion that threaten
the structures built on them.
Landslides are perhaps the most common destructive natural hazards in Central America. In
reality it is the landslide after an earthquake, flood or hurricane that usually results in the
greatest loss of life and property.
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Faults
The main faults and other seismic sources detected in the Central America region especially
for Honduras are: the Polochic-Motagua fault system, the Guayape fault and the Honduran
Depresion.
The fault system of Polochic-Motagua, in its mainland, consists of three sets of faults with
directions approximately East-West, fromt North to South are: Polochic (Chixoy-Polochic),
Motagua and Jocotn (Jocotn-Chamelecon). The Motagua fault is considered a continuation
of the failure of Swan in the Caribbean, it is the Motagua River basin and its trace is lost in
western Guatemala. Polochic fault has a continuous trace and its clear in most of its length,but its extension to the west, in the State of Chiapas, Mexico, seems to divide into two
branches.
The Guayape fault its aproximately 300 Km long and its to the west of the Motagua fault
and parallel to it in NE-SW direction. This fault is the longest continuous structure within the
territory of Honduras. Activity on this fault is evidenced today only by a very poor seismicity
catalog, despite the clear definition of topographic and thermal presence at several points.
The Honduran Depression located centrally in the Honduran territory going from north to
south from Valley of Sula to the Gulf of Fonseca, is a significantly active seismic zone with
some importan seismic events happening in the past, that can be associated to this area.
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Seismicity
The seismicity in Central America, especially Honduras, is dominated by events produced in
the boundaries of the North American-Caribbean and Cocos-Caribbean plates and an
significant contribution of earthquakes located in the central Honduran depression. The
seismicity in these areas can be classified separating crustal seismicity and deep seismicity
due to the Pacific subduction zone. In their majority the earthquakes affecting the territory
of Honduras are superficial with depths oscillating from 10 to 60km.
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For this study we used a seismic catalog from the years of 1500 to 2001, we show below this
seismic catalog in a map.
For the region of Honduras the maximum moment magnitude recorded has been of Mw= 8.1,
we show below a classification of the Earthquake in the territory of Honduras according toMagnitude.
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Seismic Sources Classification
For purposes of this study we have defined seismo-genetic zones that contributed to the
seismicity of the region of Honduras. These zones have been defined according to the
following characteristics:
- Amount of Earthquake Events
- Magnitudes of Earthquakes
- Direction and Geometry of Faults
This seismo-genetic regions have been considered to have the same seismic origins, therefore
probability of earthquake events are unrelated to each other.
Following the above stated guidelines we have defined 7 seimo-genetic zones, which are
shown in the following map:
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SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT
The hazard assessment approach for this study will be the probabilistic one (PSHA), which is
the state of the art when it comes to seismic hazard assessment. The general procedure is
shown below:
The Seismo-Genetic Sources have been previously defined, with 7 regions in total. Theregions seismicity will be described by a Gutenberg-Richter plot. This analysis will give us
rates of events, in other words probabilities of earthquake events of specific magnitude.
With the use of the Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) of our area we can predict
Ground Motion from events occurring at a given distance from the site of interest. This will
give us as a result Peak Ground Acceleration for a given magnitude and distance to the site of
interest.
Combining these two results we can obtain Probability of Exceedance, where we can
determine the probability of an event to exceed a Peak Ground Acceleration in a given periodof time. This is used in codes where definition of appropriate life time of a building is defined,
and therefore a selection of the design peak ground acceleration can be chosen to define the
design response spectra.
Seismo-GeneticSources
Sources Seismicity(Gutenberg-Richter)
Ground MotionPrediction Equation
(Attenuation Relation)
Site Hazard Assessment
(Probability of Exceedance)
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Sources Seismicity (Gutenberg-Richter)
We can describe the seismicity of each region by the use of Gutenberg-Richter plots. These
relations give us the rate of earthquake events of given magnitudes.
y = -0.981x + 4.3001
R = 0.9419-6
-4
-2
0
2
3 4 5 6 7 8
Log
(Rate)
Mw
Gutenberg-Richter Plot
Region 1
Data
Fit
y = -0.9096x + 3.6713
R = 0.9927-5
-4
-3
-2
-10
1
2
3 4 5 6 7 8
Log(Rate)
Mw
Gutenberg-Richter Plot
Region 2
Data
Fit
y = -1.0651x + 4.5458
R = 0.9543-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3 4 5 6 7 8
Log(Rate)
Mw
Gutenberg-Richter Plot
Region 3
Data
Fit
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y = -0.7618x + 2.9386
R = 0.7312-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3 4 5 6 7 8
Log(Rate)
Mw
Gutenberg-Richter Plot
Region 4
Data
Fit
y = -0.9773x + 4.4612
R = 0.9633-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
3 4 5 6 7 8
Log(Rate)
Mw
Gutenberg-Richter PlotRegion 5
Data
Fit
y = -0.5829x + 2.6529
R = 0.9499-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3 4 5 6 7 8
Log(Rate)
Mw
Gutenberg-Richter Plot
Region 6
Data
Fit
y = -0.7902x + 3.997
R = 0.9842-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
3 4 5 6 7 8
Log(Rate)
Mw
Gutenberg-Richter Plot
Region 7
Data
Fit
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Ground Motion Prediction Equation (Attenuation Relation)
For purposes of the ground motion prediction models we used the models proposed by
Ambraseyand Dahle.
AMBRASEY
where f1 and f2
are given by:
Ycan be Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA).
This model is applicable for Ms >=4.0 and Ms
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0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
1 10 100
PGA-
g
Distance - Km
Attenuation Relation, Ambrasey's (depth=30km)
Mw=5.5
Mw=6.0
Mw=6.5
Mw=7.0
Mw=7.5
Mw=8.0
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
1 10 100
PGA-
g
Distance - Km
Attenuation Relation, Dahle's (depth=30km)
Mw=5.5
Mw=6.0
Mw=6.5
Mw=7.0
Mw=7.5
Mw=8.0
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Probability of Exceedance
Now we proceed with the seismic hazard assessment results, which is presented in with a
probability of exceedance or a return period for a given range of earthquake event. From this
we obtain ground motion from which a given type of structure should be design for.
From the Reference Sites and the Seismo-genetic regions established, we use a radius of
200km of influence area for each site, we integrate the seismic hazard each region provides
for the site and weight them, obtaining as a result total probability for a given event in a site.
Finally we obtain the results of the Seismic Hazard Assessment, represented in a graph of
Probability of exceedance versus PGA, for each site in the study.
y = 1.0066e-103.8x
R = 0.9191y = 0.3107e-54.37x
R = 0.9735y = 0.3107e-61.35x
R = 0.9735y = 0.1115e-57.92x
R = 0.9407y = 1.198e-51.2x
R = 0.8915
1.E-06
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
0 0.1 0.2 0.3
AnnualProbabilityofExce
edance
PGA, g
Results of Seismic Hazard AssessmentTGU
SPS
PC
Roatan
Cholu
Expon. (TGU)
Expon. (SPS)
Expon. (PC)
Expon. (Roatan)
Expon. (Cholu)
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1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
AnnualPro
babilityofExceedance
PGA, g
Results of Seismic Hazard Assessment
TGU
SPS
Puerto Cortes
Roatan
Choluteca
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ELASTIC RESPONSE SPECTRA
With the results obtain in the Seismic Hazard Assessment and according to EuroCode 8, the
return period for which common buildings should be designed for are 95 years for the
Damage Limitation Criteria (DL), and 475 year for the No-Collapse Criteria (NC). This
corresponds to Probability of Exceedance of approximately 1.00E-2 and 2.00E-3, respectively.
Therefore the PGAs for the following sites are:
Site PGA (DL) PGA (NC)
SPS 0.063 g 0.092 g
TGU 0.044 g 0.060 g
PC 0.055 g 0.081 g
Roatan 0.040 g 0.070 gCholuteca 0.092 g 0.125 g
Earthquake Time HistoriesFor the purpose of this study we selected time histories of Earthquakes with similar PGA as
the above, and also with distance from the recording station and the epicenter near the
average distance a probable earthquake may have from one of the reference sites. Following
this guidelines we picked up 6 earthquake time histories, which are summarized in the
following table, 3 of them which are localized to the south of Honduras, affecting mainly the
sites of Choluteca and Tegucigalpa, while the other 3 to the North-West, affecting the sites of
San Pedro Sula, Puerto Cortes and Roatan.
Event Date Station Subsoil Condition Mw PGA
(g)
Distance
(km)
Depth
(km)
EQ1 17/07/03 Guatemala Soft Clay 4.6 0.041 60 40
EQ2 20/01/03 Guatemala Soft Clay 4.4 0.056 25 30
EQ3 13/01/01 El Salvador, Cutuco Rock 7.6 0.079 100 60
EQ4 13/01/01 El Salvador, Acajutla Rock 7.6 0.108 135 60
EQ5 17/02/01 San Salvador Soft Clay 5.1 0.046 30 34
EQ6 14/06/95 Tegucigalpa Stiff Clay 6.6 0.048 50 30
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EQ-1
EQ-2
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
Time, [sec]
Acceleration,
[g]
EQ1N-S
EQ1E-W
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
Time, [sec]
Acceleration,
[g]
EQ2N-S
EQ2E-W
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EQ-3
EQ-4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
Time, [sec]
Acceleration,
[g]
EQ3N-S
EQ3E-W
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
Time, [sec]
Acceleration,
[g]
EQ4N-S
EQ4E-W
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EQ-5
EQ-6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
Time, [sec]
Acceleration,
[g]
EQ5N-S
EQ5E-W
0 10 20 30 40 50 60-0.05
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
Time, [sec]
Acceleration,
[g]
EQ6N-S
EQ6E-W
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Site Specific Response Spectra
With the time histories of the earthquake we can develop response spectra for each
earthquake event, making use of Duhamel integration. We then can normalize this spectrum
with the maximum value, in our case the PGA, and obtain a normalized elastic acceleration
response spectrum. The following are the normalize acceleration response spectra, with 5%
Damping, for the Rock, and soft subsoil conditions
Rock
Stiff Clay
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 20.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Period T, [sec]
Sa
EQ3N-S
EQ3E-W
EQ4N-S
EQ4E-W
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 20.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Period T, [sec]
Sa
EQ6N-S
EQ6E-W
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Soft Clay
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 20
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Period T, [sec]
Sa
EQ1N-S
EQ1E-W
EQ2N-S
EQ2E-W
EQ5N-S
EQ5E-W
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Recommended Elastic Response Spectra
Using the procedure proposed by Newmark-Hall we obtain a smooth response spectrum for
rock subsoil condition, the results are shown below:
Rock
Rock Subsoil Condition Spectral Formulas:
0 TB: SA = (2.7 1) S TTB + 1
TB TC: SA = 2.7 S
TC TD: SA = 2 . 7 S TCT
TD : SA = 2.7 S TCTD T
Using the response spectra for the other ground type conditions we obtain the following soil
amplification factors:
Ground Type Description S
S1 Rock Type with Shear velocity greater than 760m/s 1.00
S2 Hard Dense soil type to medium dense 1.25
S3 Dense soft clay, with less than 6 m of depth 1.35
S4 Soft Clay with more than 12 m of depth, with shear velocity less than 150 m/s 1.65
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Period T, [sec]
Sa
EQ3N-S
EQ3E-W
EQ4N-S
EQ4E-W
Smooth Resp Spec
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The zoning map obtained for Honduras, divided into 6 regions, is shown below:
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For the rock soil condition we show in the following graph both Euro-Code elastic response
spectra for Type 1 and 2 and the recommended spectra in this study.
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Period T, [sec]
Sa
EQ3N-S
EQ3E-W
EQ4N-S
EQ4E-W
Recomed
EC Type 2
EC Type 1
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COMPARISONS WITH NATIONAL CODE
The Honduran code provides the following ground type classification:
Ground Type Description S Ta Tb e
S1 Rock Type with Shear velocity greater than 760m/s 1.0 0.155 0.364 2.0
S2 Hard Dense soil type to medium dense 1.2 0.186 0.524 2.0
S3 Dense soft clay, with less than 6 m of depth 1.5 0.233 0.818 2.0
S4 Soft Clay with more than 12 m of depth, with shear
velocity less than 150 m/s
2.0 0.310 1.455 2.0
Seismic zoning map of Honduras (factor Z)
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Elastic response Spectra Honduran Code
0 Ta: Sa = 2 . 5 Z g 0.4 + 0.7 TTa
Ta Tb: Sa = 2.75 Z g
Tb : Sa = Z g Se
T
Comparison with Honduran Code
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Period T, [sec]
Sa
EQ3N-S
EQ3E-W
EQ4N-S
EQ4E-W
Recomend
EC Type 2
EC Type 1
Honduran Code
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REFERENCES
Seismic Hazard Study Hidroelectric Dam Project Site Tornillito
Project Resis II Seismic Hazard Assessment of Central America
- NORSARhttp://www.norsar.no/images/Marketing/Projects/RESIS/Amenaza_Honduras_ES.pdf
Seismic Hazard Assessment of Honduras
- NORSAR & Physics Department UNAHhttp://cidbimena.desastres.hn/ri-hn/pdf/spa/doc14692/doc14692-a.pdf
Euro-Code 8
Honduran National Construction Code
Project Rainbow - Honduras COSMOS -http://db.cosmos-eq.org/
IRIS -http://www.iris.edu/hq/
PMDN (Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards)
SERNA (Secretary of Natural Resources and Environment) -http://www.serna.gob.hn/
National Autonomous University of Honduras (UNAH)
http://www.sirih.org/?nvs=48&title=Gonzalo%20Cruz%20Calder%F3n&lang=es
College of Civil Engineers of Honduras (CICH)
http://cichorg.org/Pages/Biblioteca.aspx
http://www.norsar.no/images/Marketing/Projects/RESIS/Amenaza_Honduras_ES.pdfhttp://www.norsar.no/images/Marketing/Projects/RESIS/Amenaza_Honduras_ES.pdfhttp://cidbimena.desastres.hn/ri-hn/pdf/spa/doc14692/doc14692-a.pdfhttp://cidbimena.desastres.hn/ri-hn/pdf/spa/doc14692/doc14692-a.pdfhttp://db.cosmos-eq.org/http://db.cosmos-eq.org/http://db.cosmos-eq.org/http://www.iris.edu/hq/http://www.iris.edu/hq/http://www.iris.edu/hq/http://www.serna.gob.hn/http://www.serna.gob.hn/http://www.serna.gob.hn/http://www.sirih.org/?nvs=48&title=Gonzalo%20Cruz%20Calder%F3n&lang=eshttp://www.sirih.org/?nvs=48&title=Gonzalo%20Cruz%20Calder%F3n&lang=eshttp://cichorg.org/Pages/Biblioteca.aspxhttp://cichorg.org/Pages/Biblioteca.aspxhttp://cichorg.org/Pages/Biblioteca.aspxhttp://www.sirih.org/?nvs=48&title=Gonzalo%20Cruz%20Calder%F3n&lang=eshttp://www.serna.gob.hn/http://www.iris.edu/hq/http://db.cosmos-eq.org/http://cidbimena.desastres.hn/ri-hn/pdf/spa/doc14692/doc14692-a.pdfhttp://www.norsar.no/images/Marketing/Projects/RESIS/Amenaza_Honduras_ES.pdf
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