project to intercompare regional climate simulations climate change: a context for reflection on the...

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Climate Change: A Context for Reflection on the

Responsibilities of the Faith Community

Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCMProfessor of Atmospheric Science

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

gstakle@iastate.edu

St Andrews Lutheran Church, 12 November 2006

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Outline Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide Radiative forcing Simulations of global climate and future

climate change “Dangerous anthropogenic inter-

ference with the climate system”? “Climate surprises” Implications for the Faith Community

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

Natural cycles

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

2006

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

2006

2040

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

“Business as Usual”(fossil intensive)

2100

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

“Business as Usual”(fossil intensive)

2100

?

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions with division into portions that remain airborne or are soaked up by the ocean and land. Source: Hansen and Sato, PNAS, 101, 16109, 2004.

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Climate forcing agents in the industrial era. “Effective” forcing accounts for “efficacy” of the forcing mechanism

Source: Hansen et al., JGR, 110, D18104, 2005.

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963

Global mean surface temperature change based on surface air measurements over land and SSTs over ocean Source: Update of Hansen et al., JGR, 106, 23947, 2001; Reynolds and Smith, J. Climate, 7, 1994; Rayner et al., JGR, 108, 2003.

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

The planet is committed toa warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions

Adaptation Necessary

Mitigation Possible

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

Climate Change Projected for 2100

Rapid Economic Growth

Slower Economic Growth

(B) Ocean heat gain in the top 750 m of world ocean.

Source: Hansen et al., Science, 308, 1431, 2005.

(A) Net Radiation at top of atmosphere in climate simulations.

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Tropical Weather

Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katrina_vs_sea_surface_height.JPG

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Sea-surface temperature

V V

Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

V

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

Sea-surface temperature

V V

Tropical Atlantic OceanHurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

V

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

140-page synthesis report released in November 2004.

Main science report imminent (chapters available electronically at www.acia.uaf.edu).

Concerns over wide-ranging changes in the Arctic.

– Rising temperatures– Rising river flows– Declining snow cover– Increasing precipitation– Thawing permafrost– Diminishing late and river ice– Melting glaciers– Melting Greenland Ice Sheet– Retreating summer sea ice– Rising sea level– Ocean salinity changes

Species at risk include polar bears, seals, walruses, Arctic fox, snowy owl, and many species of mosses and lichens

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)

Sources: Claire Parkinson and Robert Taylor

NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Associated Climate Changes

Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N.

Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 10-15% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001 Report

For the Midwest Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the

day A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples

the probability of a heat wave Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer

now than in 1950) More precipitation Likely more soil moisture in summer More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Climate Surprises

Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)

Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Constitutes “Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with

the Climate System”?

James Hansen, Director of the NASA GoddardInstitute for Space Studies:

* Radiative forcing limit: 1 Watt/ m2

* 1 oC additional rise in global mean temperature

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

El Chichon (1982)Agung, 1963

Imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018

Increasing Melt Area on Greenland

• 2002 all-time record melt area • Melting up to elevation of 2000 m• 16% increase from 1979 to 2002 70 meters thinning in 5 years

Satellite-era record melt of 2002 was exceeded in 2005. Source: Waleed Abdalati, Goddard Space Flight Center

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONSHansen, Scientific American, March 2004

Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m(~3 ft) rise in sea level

Kennedy SpaceCenter

Miami

Impact of a 1-mrise in sea levelon low-lying areas

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

Projected sea-level rise In 21st century:0.5 to 1.0 m

http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Rawls and Brundtland:

Brundtland Report Concept of Sustainability:

“Institutions are sustainable when they effectively meet the needs of present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs.”

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

Ten Things You can do to Slow Global Warming*

Change a light Drive less Recycle more Check your tires Use less hot water Avoid products with a lot of packaging Adjust your thermostat Plant a tree Turn off electrical and electronic devices

* From “An Inconvenient Truth (www.climatecrisis.net)

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

Care for creation - what does this mean in a global context?

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

Care for creation - what does this mean in a global context?

Faith community is joined across space and time – We have a legacy passed down for the last

two centuries– What legacy do we leave?

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

Care for creation - what does this mean in a global context?

Faith community is joined across space and time – We have a legacy passed down for the last

two centuries– What legacy do we leave?

How will future generations (those whose futures we are now constraining) view us and our stewardship of the planet?

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

Responsibility to the natural world

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings

– International justice

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings

– International justice– Inter-generational equity

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings

– International justice– Inter-generational equity

From those to whom much has been given will much be expected

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings

– International justice– Inter-generational equity

From those to whom much has been given will much be expected– Resources

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

What Does this Imply for the Faith Community?

Responsibility to the natural world Responsibility to other human beings

– International justice– Inter-generational equity

From those to whom much has been given will much be expected– Resources– Knowledge

PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

For More Information For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have

seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

Contact me directly:

gstakle@iastate.edu