psp presentation 2016 final

Bulwarks, Agility & ForesightPSP 2016 Keynote

Joseph J. EspositoPartner, STM Advisers LLC

Washington, D.C. | February 3, 2016

1

Three Hypothetical Organizations1. For-profit publisher; revenue=$100

million

2. Not-for-profit society publisher; revenue=$25 million

3. Publishing start-up

2

BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT

Commercial Publisher ? ? ?

Society Publisher ? ? ?

Publishing Start-up ? ? ?

3

4

Publishers Under Siege (the short list)

Open access movementThe militant librarianAssault on copyright

Political communitariansTech companies

Nasty PR on pricing (esp. for textbooks)Hostile media environmentFunding agency interference

And so on, ad infinitum

5

BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT

Commercial Publisher ? ?

Society Publisher ? ?

Publishing Start-up ? ? ?

6

YES

?

BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT

Commercial Publisher ? ?

Society Publisher ? ?

Publishing Start-up ? ? ?

7

YES

YES

The Bulwark of Capitulation

8

BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT

Commercial Publisher YES ? ?

Society Publisher YES ? ?

Publishing Start-up

9

YESNO ASSERTED

“Agile” as Metaphor

10

“Agility” is inversely related to foresight.

11

Start-ups . . .May be eating everybody’s lunchInnovate faster than established

companiesMay have little room to growCan’t use a bulwark strategy

No assets to defend!

12

Bulwarks . . .Are an essential component of an

established company’s strategyTend to monopolize the bandwidth

of senior executivesLook to the past, not to the future

NB: Investors value future earningsMust be complemented by vigorous

future-oriented strategies, that is, by foresight

13

BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT

Commercial Publisher YES REACTIVE ESSENTIAL

Society Publisher YES DIFFICULT ESSENTIAL

Publishing Start-up NO YES ASSERTED

14

15

The Black Art of Foresight

“The Fortune Teller,” Georges de la Tour. c. 1630

Developing Business ForesightSeek multiple inputs

OutsidersThe rank and file

Place lots of small betsStudy other segments of the publishing

industry for new ideasPut your best people on the new activitiesBe on the lookout for entrants from left field

16

What’s on My Own Screen Now?

17

18

A Few Things to Watch ForData scienceNetwork modelImplications of large

end-user databaseMobile-based

control panelPotential for

disruption in institutional ebook market

Contact InformationJoseph J. EspositoPartner, STM Advisers LLC

http://stmadvisers.comespositoj@gmail.com@josephjesposito

19