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Pupil Enrollment Projection Study Update
Presented to: Utica Community Schools
pmcresa.com | (248) 223-3500
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The Plante Moran Cresa Difference
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
Accountants/CPAs
Architects
Attorneys
Project Managers
Construction Experts
Development Specialists
Engineers
Financial Analysts
Real Estate Professionals
❑Collective Expertise
Planners, architects, engineers, construction experts, financial advisors and real estate professionals – dedicated to our clients
❑ Full Service
Ability to service K-12 clients from concept to completion
▪ Enrollment Projections – recognized by Dept. of Treasury
▪ Bond Planning / Feasibility Studies
▪ Program Management during design, construction,
and close-out
▪ Real Estate Asset Positioning
❑ Independent Advice
Advisory services are provided without conflicts — our
objective is your success
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Who are Plante Moran Cresa’s Clients…A-Z
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❑ Ann Arbor Public Schools
❑ Birmingham Public Schools
❑ Bloomfield Hills Schools
❑ Dearborn Public Schools
❑ Farmington Public Schools
❑ Forest Hills Schools
❑ Grand Rapids Public Schools
❑ Livonia Public Schools
❑ Plymouth-Canton Schools
❑ Rochester Community Schools
❑ Traverse City Area Public Schools
❑ Utica Community Schools
❑ Walled Lake Consolidated Schools
❑ Wayne-Westland Schools
❑ Warren Consolidated Schools
❑ Zeeland Public Schools
PLANTE MORAN CRESA | SERVICES & CAPABILITIES
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Demographic Trends in Southeast Michigan
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
1957 – Height of “Baby Boomer”Approx. 208,500 births
2018 – Approx.107,500 births
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Demographic Trends in Southeast Michigan
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
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Demographic Trends in Southeast Michigan
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
Southeast Michigan Council of Government (SEMCOG) recently released a Quick Factsreport detailing its 2045 forecast of school-age population in Southeast Michigan that forecasts a continued drop in school-age population.
Some highlights:• School-age population has been declining since the early 2000’s. The region has seen
a 15% decline in 15 years (2000-2015).
• The number is forecast to drop another 10% by 2025.
• The impact has been seen in elementary and middle schools over the past 15 years. Going forward, the impact will be more prevalent in high schools and post-secondary education.
• At the individual school-district level, all but 12 of the 112 school districts in the region are forecast to experience declines in school-age children between now and 2025.
• By 2026, the senior population (65+) will outnumber children in Southeast Michigan.
https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__SMCG.informz.net_z_cjUucD9taT04MDc1OTQ2JnA9MSZ1PTExMDYxMDI1ODgmbGk9NjAwNjk1Njc_index.html&d=DwMFaQ&c=vbE3-ubQJbJoSTO8ckss2NPRm9dTHBoGTsm4zrv1Rfw&r=olrxDc4mDZh9XKxjgKTgmPmp_RdkJlKN_DAWcfajfkI&m=APYMGkvHxfuzAgV5R6Er_IA5QT8Ah-QRSB2Cqw0dues&s=wc0JLf6WkspWFcMncVOqeZZRlqw_ADFH53vG4R7cCfk&e=
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Pupil Enrollment Projection Study Process
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
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Pupil Enrollment Projection Study (PEPS) Process
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
❑ PMC’s Process
▪ Demographic Growth
▪ GIS
▪ US Census Bureau
▪ Core Base Statistical Area
▪ Primary Area (District)
▪ Comparison #1
(County)
▪ Comparison #2 (State)
▪ Cohort Survival – DS 4061
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PEPS Findings
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
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PEPS Findings
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
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PEPS Findings
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
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PEPS Findings
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
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PEPS Findings
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
Age 0-5 CohortCurrent K-12 Cohort
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PEPS Findings
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
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PEPS Findings
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
START HERE
Historical Projected
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PEPS Findings
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
Historical Projected
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PEPS Findings
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
Historical Projected
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Utica Community Schools – Demographic & Enrollment Summary
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
❑ Projected Enrollment Trends
Utica Community Schools is projected to attract approximately 19.70% of the eligible K-students
Grade “K” enrollment is projected to level off at 1,805 students in the next 5 years
Grade “12” enrollment will be less than 2,000 for the first time in 2022
Utica Community Schools will have less than 25,000 FTE student in 2022
2010 2019 2024Difference
(2010-2024)
Population 184,264 192,705 196,853 + 12,589
Total Households (Occupied) 70,186 73,092 75,347 + 5,161
Median Household Owner Age 52.2 53.8 54.4 +2.2
Enrolled School Age Children 31,295 30,925 31,007 -288
❑ Demographic Trends
K% of Birth Utica Community Schools 19.07% 19.72% 19.70% +0.63%
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Utica Community Schools – Demographic & Enrollment Summary
P L A N T E M O R A N C R E S A | S E R V I C E S & C A P A B I L I T I E S
❑ Enrolled Students (2013-2014 vs. 2019-2020 School Year)
2013-2014: 28,4942019-2020: 26,599
1,895 (student decrease)
2019-2020: 26,5992024-2025: 25,649
950 (student decrease)
❑ Impact to General Fund Considerations
2013- 2019: 1,895 (Less Students) x $8,242 (Foundation Allowance) = $15,618,590 decrease last 7 years2020- 2025: 950 (Less Students) x $8,242 (Foundation Allowance) = $7,829,000 decrease next 5 years
❑ Impact to Facility Footprint ConsiderationsUtica Community Schools should review its educational programs in relation to its facility footprint due to the decrease of approximately 7% of student population over the past 7 years and projected decrease of an approximately 4% of student population in the next 5 years
❑ PMC Projection Accuracy: Actual to Projection Comparison
K-12 Students Projected (2019-20 PMC Projection): 25,653Full Time Equivalent K-12 Students (2019-2020 Fall Count): 25,584
-69 Pupils (99.7% Accuracy)
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Helping to
Plan the Future
Paul R. Wills, AIA, LEED AP
Partner
paul.wills@plantemoran.com
(248) 223-3316
pmcresa.com | (248) 223-3500
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