putin's russia and political war

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Putin’s Russia and Political War: Something Old, Something New

James VoorheesApril 2016

Our Questions

•What is Russia doing?•How new is this?•What place does InfoWar

have?

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Wonk• Author, Dialogue Sustained: The Multilevel Peace Process and

the Dartmouth Conference (USIP Press, 2002)• Analyst of foreign affairs at the Congressional Research Service

(CRS) and the Kettering Foundation• Parliamentary Development Project, CRS.• Forum for U.S.-Russian Dialogue• Alternative Futures in U.S. Soviet Relations Project, Mershon

Center, OSU.• PhD, Johns Hopkins University SAIS

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Geek• Currently: Cyber Defense Analyst, Common

Securitization Solutions• Network Security Engineer or Cyber Defense Analyst,

various government agencies• Director, Management Program, SANS Technology

Institute• SANS Mentor for intrusion detection course• MSISE, SANS Technology Institute

Slide 2

What does Russia do?

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Hacking!

What?•DoS’ing Estonia•Attacks in Georgia•Attacks in Crimea and Ukraine•Espionage everywhere

Who?•Government hackers•Patriotic hackers•Hired hackers?

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• ‘Hybrid War’ used to describe Russian actions, especially in Crimea and Ukraine• The term as used in the West implies a focus on

military means• Crimea: (Troops sans patches) + deception• Donbass: (Troops sans patches) + deception +

militias• Non-military means also used

– Including Infowar– Economic measures– Diplomatic means

– Minsk agreements– Other negotiations and agreementsVoorhees - InfoWarCon 2016 7

Hybrid War?!

• From the Russian perspective, the West used hybrid war in the color revolutions:– Rose (Georgia 2003)– Orange (Ukraine 2004)– Tulip (Kyrgyzstan 2005)– Maidan Square (Kyiv 2014)– Arab Spring

“‘Color Revolution’ is a form of non-violent change of power by outside manipulation of the protest potential of the population in conjunction with political, economic, humanitarian, and other non-military measures.”

--Col. Gen. Valery Gerasimov

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Western Hybrid War?

Russia’s two-part view of information war:–Information-technical aspects (cyber)

• Emphasis on doing things to information:– Compromise Confidentiality, Integrity, Availability

• Our focus in the West–Information-psychological aspects (cognitive)

• This is: Propaganda; Psychological War.• Targets:

– Foreign leadership– Populace

• Goal: Change behavior

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The Cognitive Bit

The State of Russia

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A weak state?

•Putin’s perceptions:– Potential for internal dissent

• Stifled in 2011• Is the potential for dissent re-emerging?

– External assault on the regime• By the West• By radical Islam

– Lost greatnessVoorhees - InfoWarCon 2016 11

A weak state?

• Russian reality– Collapsing oil prices = collapsing economy

• Relative poverty• Lack of industrial diversity• Economy governed more by corruption than competition• Sanctions don’t help

– Looming demographic disaster• Low birth rate• Aging population

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How does a weak state win?

Pull out all stops. Use all means available

– Economic means• Energy• Trade restrictions

– Non-state actors and other allies• Political allies in foreign polities• Paramilitary forces

– Media– Cyber

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We have seen this before• Weak Russia in 1918 (and long after)• Non-state actors and other allies

– Ideological friends• Comintern• Fellow travelers• Front organizations

– Spanish Civil War• Lincoln Brigade and others• Deniable aid to the Republic

• Media– Propaganda organs (Radio Moscow, etc.)

Name that Strategy

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Political War

• “Political war is the use of political means to compel an opponent to do one’s will.” – Paul A. Smith On Political War

• This can include many means. These include:– Propaganda– Psychological warfare– Use of non-state actors– Economic means

Political War

• Includes the use of non-military means

• Includes Information War•But is broader

•No direct use of military force

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Kennan on Political War (1948)

“Political warfare is the logical application of Clausewitz's doctrine in time of peace. In broadest definition, political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation's command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives. Such operations are both overt and covert. They range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures (as ERP--the Marshall Plan), and "white" propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of "friendly" foreign elements, "black" psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.”

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Lenin (1920)

“One will readily agree that any army which does not train to use all the weapons, all the means and methods of warfare that the enemy possesses, or may possess, is behaving in an unwise or even criminal manner. This applies to politics even more than it does to the art of war.“

– Left-Wing Communism: An Infantile Disorder

What’s New?

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New Message• Nationalist, not communist

•Support for pro-Russian parties in the Near Abroad

•An anti-Western or anti-American message resonates•Support for nationalist parties in

Europe

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New Media• RT (formerly Russia Today) and Sputnik• Trolls

– Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg– Social media (Twitter, Facebook, etc.)– Bloggers and commentators– Fake videos

• In truth, not a lot of this is new– The media have changed, the tactics are much the

same– The cognitive bit at work

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New Domain• Cyber: a new domain• New deniable allies for cyber attacks

• Patriotic hackers• Mercenary hackers?• Sandworm, Cyber Berkut, et al.

• Targets:– Government sites

• Electoral systems?– Industrial control systems?

Where are the Targets?

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Target: The Near Abroad– Managed instability

• Counters Western leaning political forces• Levers available:

• Economic dependence• Media• Pro-Russian forces

• Ukraine, the Baltic States, Georgia• Will they try to extend this elsewhere?

– Bulgaria? – Managed stability

• Countries content to stay in the fold• Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Central Asia

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Target: Western Europe• Economic means

– Energy• Support right-wing parties• Media

– Example: Fake Azov Batt. video made for the Netherlands

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Target: The United States

• Right wing parties– Not really available

• Media– Not really effective

• Economic means– Not really available

Where should we be concerned?

• Where does the strategy work?– Where political forces are weak– Where Russia is an issue– Where pro-Russian sentiment runs high– Close to home

• Where does it not?– The United States– Western Europe

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Takeaways• What is Russia doing?

• Using political war to offset its weakness in a hostile world• This strategy is as old as the USSR

• Yet it includes new elements of infowar that stem from new technology

• Russia defines infowar broadly• It includes the cognitive bits

• The strategy will be more effective close to home

Extra Slides

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Russia != U.S.S.R.

•No unitary ideology•No CPSU•No central planning•Authoritarian, not totalitarian

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Kennan’s Proposals (1948)• Sponsor liberation committees. • Support of indigenous anti-Communist

elements in threatened countries of the Free World. 

• Preventive direct action in free countries.• Creation of a covert political warfare

operations directorate within the government.

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Max Boot• Writer at the Council on Foreign Relations• His proposals:

• Coordinator in the NSC• Interagency coordinating body

– In the State Department• Creation of political warfare career tracks

– State, DoD, AID, CIA• Aid to political leaders and intellectuals

– Overt and covert

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S. 2692• “Countering Information Warfare Act of 2016”• Creates a 'Center for Information Analysis and

Response‘– To gather information about foreign information operations– To develop, plan, and synchronize ‘whole of government’

initiatives• Authorizes: $290 million for FY2017 and FY2018• Focus is not just on US, but also on foreign targets

most susceptible• Bipartisan: Rob Portman (R-OH) and Chris Murphy (D-CT)

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