quarterly review state of the economy seminar august 8, 2013 · 2014-06-25 · pulses 18.2 17.1...

Quarterly Review

State of the Economy

Seminar

August 8, 2013

QRE Team

Forecast: Purna Chandra Parida Agriculture: Anil K. Sharma Industry: Saurabh Bandopadhyay Services: Devender Pratap Money and Credit: Mythili Bhusnurmath Prices: Bornali Bhandari External Sector: Rajesh Chadha and Anjali Tandon Public Finance: Mythili Bhusnurmath Research/ Data Support: Devender Pratap, Charu Jain,

Himani Gupta, Farha Anis and Praveen Sachdeva

Organisational Support: Sudesh Bala and Shikha S. Vasudeva

When it rains, it pours…

• Monsoon covered all of India a month early

• Narendra Modi nominated as Chairman of BJP election committee

– Bhagwati-Sen debate

• 15 June, 2013 Uttarakhand floods – 6,000 people estimated dead

• 19 June, 2013: Federal Reserve Governor sets road map for end of stimulus

– 17 July: Accommodative Monetary Policy

• FDI liberalisation an on-going process

• Unemployment Rate in the US – 7.4% in July 2013

• China de-leveraging

• TMC sweeps West Bengal Panchayat elections

• Separate state, Telengana approved

• Governance issues have again come to the fore

– Sand mining banned

• Raghuram Rajan takes over as RBI Governor in September, 2013

Key Messages

Indian Growth Rate bottomed out in the third quarter of 2012-13

On an annual basis growth rate hits rock bottom

Double Dip?

Good Monsoon and worldwide weak commodity prices

Rupee depreciation

Overall, difficult to predict

Grim news continues

Revive Investment FDI policy is a step in the right direction but not enough!

Provisional Estimates

Indian GDP Growth Rate Slides – Was

growth above 9% the norm or flash in the pan?

Note: # Provisional Estimates

Source: CSO

9.5 9.6 9.3

6.7

8.69.3

6.25

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005-

06

2006-

07

2007-

08

2008-

09

2009-

10

2010-

11^

2011-

12 *

2012-

13 #

GDP Growth Rate (%YoY)

The economy did bottom out in the third

quarter – is this sustainable?

Source: CSO

5.55.3

4.5 4.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012-13:Q1 2012-13:Q2 2012-13:Q3 2012-13:Q4

GDP Growth Rate (% Y-o-Y)

Except Mining, Community, Social and Personal Services

and Construction – all sectors show a slow down

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Ag

ricu

lture

,

Fo

rest

ry a

nd

Fis

hin

g

Min

ing

an

d

Qu

arr

yin

g

Ma

nu

fact

uri

ng

Ele

ctri

city

,

Ga

s &

Wa

ter

Co

nst

ruct

ion

Tra

de

, Ho

tels

,

Tra

nsp

ort

Fin

an

ce,

Insu

ran

ce,

Re

al E

sta

te

Co

mm

un

ity,

So

cia

l an

d

Pe

rso

na

l

2011-12 * 2012-13 #Note: * First Revised Estimates, #

Provisional Estimates

Source: CSO

Mining slid deeper into recession and

construction growth decreased

in the fourth quarter of 2012-13 (compared

to the third quarter)

Gross Fixed capital Formation also

continues to move downwards (%Y-o-Y)

7.5

11.6

1.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

GFCF Growth

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Projections for the World % (Y-o-Y)

Country/ Region 2011 2012 2013 2014

US 1.8 2.2 1.7 2.7

China 9.3 7.8 7.8 7.7

Euro area 1.5 –0.6 –0.6 0.9

Japan -0.6 1.9 2.0 1.2

India 6.3 3.2 5.6 6.3

Emerging Market and

Developing

Economies 6.2 4.9 5.0 5.4

Advanced

Economies 1.7 1.2 1.2 2.1

World 3.9 3.1 3.1 3.8

Note: The arrow indicates whether the estimates have been revised from April 2013

Source: World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, July 2013

Forecasts for Select Economic

Indicators for India (%)

Ministry of

Finance

PMEAC RBI ADB WEO

2013-14 2013-14 2013-14 2013 2014 2013 2014

Real GDP

growth

6.1 to 6.7

(February)

6.4

(April)

5.7

(March)

5.8

(July)

6.5

(July)

5.6

(July)

6.3

(July)

Sources: Asian Development Outlook July Updates 2013, World Economic Outlook July 2013 Update, RBI, Ministry of

Finance, PMEAC

2013-14 – Tomorrow is another day

Agriculture

Excess Rain

24.9

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Deviations in Monsoon Rainfall

from the Normal (June-July) (per

cent)

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Except East (-12.6% Deviation in June-July)

Source: Computations from IMD Data

Actual and Estimated Levels of Output of

Selected Crops (Million tonnes)

Crops Actual 2010-11 Actual 2011-12 Fourth Advance

Estimates 2012-

13

Rice 96 105.3 104.4

Wheat 86.9 94.9 92.5

Coarse Cereals 43.4 42 40.1

Pulses 18.2 17.1 18.5

Total Foodgrains 244.5 259.3 255.4

Oilseeds 32.5 29.8 31

Cotton 33 35.2 34

Sugarcane 342.4 361 339

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India

Note: * The estimates for cotton are in million bales.

Paradox- Record output but agricultual GDP growth still slows down

Stock of cereals held by government

agencies, million tonnes

Cereal inflation 16.2% (April-June, 2013)

58.364.1

80.673.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

01-Jul-10 01-Jul-11 01-Jul-12 July 1 2013

Industry

Slide of the Industry (% Y-o-Y using IIP)

5.2

9.0

5.5

8.2

3.0

8.2

2.9

-2.4

1.3

4.0

1.1

-2.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10

.0

Mining Manufacturing Electricity General

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Source: CSO

Slide of Industry continues in the first two

months

Source: CSO

-4.50.1

5.2

0.1

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Min

ing

Ma

nu

fac

turin

g

Ele

ctric

ity

Ge

ne

ral

April-May, 2013-14 (% YoY)

Consumer durables lead the downfall

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Ba

sic

go

od

s

Ca

pita

l

go

od

s

Inte

rme

dia

te

go

od

s

Co

ns

um

er

du

rab

les

Co

ns

um

er

no

n-

du

rab

les

Ov

era

ll

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14*

Note: * April-May, Source: CSO

Basic Goods Inflation – 1.64%

Consumer Durables – 1.63%

Manufacturing – 3.18%

2-Digit Classification – only four show growth

above 5 per cent (April-February, %YoY)

• 12 out of the 22 industry groups in the manufacturing sector showed positive growth in April-May, 2013-14.

• In April–May 2013–14, there are only five industries that have recorded growth above 5 per cent.

– Wearing apparels (55%)

– Leather products (15.5%)

– Chemicals and Products (6.2%)

– Furniture (12.9%)

– Refined Petroleum Products (5.2%)

8 Core Industries Index (%YoY) shows

consistent decline

Refinery Products, steel, cement and electricity are the only ones that positive growth.

All have shown decline in the period April-May 2013-14 versus

corresponding period in 2012-13

6.6

5

3.4

2.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010–11 2011–12 2012-13 2013-14*

Services

Indicators of Service Sector Output

(% Change y-o-y)

Source: i) Foreign Tourist Arrivals- Press Information bureau, Ministry of Tourism; Railway traffic-Press Information bureau, Ministry of Railways; Port Cargos- Indian Port Association;

http:/ipa.nic.in/pcs/default.asp; and Aggregate Deposits and Bank Credit- RBI

Quarterly/Fi

scal Year

Touri

sts

Arriv

al

(Num

bers)

Revenu

e

Earning

Goods

Traffic

by

Railway

s (MT))

Cargo

Handled

at Major

Ports

(‘000

tonnes)

Producti

on of

Commer

cial

Vehicles

(‘000

Number

s)

New

Telepho

ne

Connect

ions

(Fixed+

Wireless

in

Millions)

Growth

in

Aggrega

te

Deposits

(Rs cr)

Bank

Credit to

Commer

cial

Sector

(Rs cr)

2012-13:Q1 4.8 4.7 -5.5 -3.7 9.0 16.5 19.2

2012-13:Q2 7.3 9.3 -0.8 -5.2 3.4 13.7 16.5

2012-13:Q3 5.3 -3.0 -2.7 -13.6 -3.3 10.9 15.0

2012-13:Q4 4.8 -0.8 -0.9 -17.3 -5.6 14.3 9.8

2013-14:Q1 1.9 4.9 -1.0 0.1 -5.9* 13.8 13.3

Domestic and international air passenger

and cargo traffic

Source: Airport Authority of India

Domestic Traffic International Traffic Total Traffic

Month

/Year

Pa

ss

en

ge

r

La

kh

%ch

g

Car

go

‘000

tonn

es

%ch

g

Pas

sen

ger

Lak

h

%ch

g

Car

go

‘000

tonn

es

%ch

g

Pas

sen

ger

Lak

h

%ch

g

Car

go

‘000

tonn

es

%ch

g

2012-

13

21

0.0

4.0 137.

4

5.1 68.9 4.6 243.

5

-6.4 278.

9

4.1 381.

0

-2.5

2013-

14

21

3.2

1.5 124.

7

-9.3 76.5 11.0 240.

0

-1.5 289.

7

3.9 364.

7

-4.3

Growth of Service Sector Exports (%YoY)

Source: RBI

Year Travel Transp

ortatio

n

Insuran

ce

G.n.i.e Softwar

e

Service

s

Non-

Software

Miscellan

eous

Services*

Total

Servic

es

2012-13:Q1 -5.2 -2.4 -6.5 14.5 4.6 3.5 2.1

2012-13:Q2 -6.6 -7.2 -11.8 1.8 15.3 4.9 5.9

2012-13:Q3 -0.4 -10.4 -34.4 -3.7 2.1 -5.7 -2.8

2012-13:Q4 0.5 -3.6 -4.9 166.0 2.9 -6.5 -0.7

Break-up of Non-Software Miscellaneous

Services Receipts (% Change y-o-y)

Source: RBI

Year Business Financial Communicati

on

Total Non-

Software

Miscellaneou

s Services

2012-13:Q1 31.7 1.9 16.4 3.5

2012-13:Q2 16.5 -14.1 16.7 4.9

2012-13:Q3 4.8 -14.3 -21.5 -5.6

2012-13:Q4 -8.8 -26.9 14.9 -6.5

External Sector

Current Account Deficit has moderated

Source: Reserve Bank of India

As a ratio to GDP 2012-13 (US $ billion)

Q1(PR) Q2(PR) Q3(PR) Q4(PR)

Trade Balance -10.2 -11.4 -12.0 -9.0

Net Services 3.5 3.9 3.4 3.3

Net Income 2.8 2.5 2.0 2.1

Current Account Balance -4.0 -5.0 -6.5 -3.6

Capital & Financial Account (Net)

3.8 4.9 6.5 4.0

PR: Partially Revised

Revival of Capital Flow but….

Source: Reserve Bank of India

(US $ billion)

2012-13 (Monthly Average) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2013-14 Apr-May

FDI in India 2.0 3.2 1.4 2.4 2.7

FDI by India 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3

FIIs -0.6 2.6 3.3 3.8 -0.2#

ADRs/GDRs 0.03 0.03 0.0 0.0 0.0

ECBs 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.8

NRI Deposits 2.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.5

#: Apr-Jun 2013

Vulnerability indicators show further

worsening

Source: Reserve Bank of India

(per cent)

Indicator End Mar 2011 End Mar 2012 End Mar 2013

Ratio of Total Debt to GDP 17.5 19.7 21.2

Ratio of Short-term to Total Debt(Original Maturity) 21.2 22.6 24.8

Ratio of Short-term to Total Debt(Residual Maturity)# 42.2 42.6 44.2

Ratio of Concessional Debt to Total Debt 15.5 13.9 11.7

Ratio of Reserves to Total Debt 99.7 85.2 74.9

Ratio of Short-term Debt to Reserves 21.3 26.6 33.1

Ratio of Short-term Debt(Residual Maturity) to Reserves# 42.3 50.1 59.0

Reserves cover of Imports (in months) 9.5 7.1 7.0

Debt-Service Ratio(Debt Service Payments to Current Receipts)

4.4 6.0 5.9

External Debt(US $ billion) 305.9 345.5 390.0

International Investment Position(IIP)(US $ billion) -207.0 -249.5 -307.3

IIP/GDP Ratio -11.9 -14.0 -16.7

# RBI Estimate

Steep Fall in the Rupee

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Apr'09

July

Oct

Jan

Apr'10

July

Oct

Jan

Apr

'11

July

Oct

Jan

Apr

'12

July

Oct

Jan

Apr

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Rs/ Dollar REER (36 country, trade weighted)

Prices

Moderation in Inflation (almost)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012-13:Q1 2012-13:Q2 2012-13:Q3 2012-13:Q4 2013-14:Q1

CPI combined INFLCPIAL INFLCPIIW INFWPI

Money Sector

BCC and NBCG have fallen (% Y-o-Y)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ap

r'0

9M

ay

Jun

July

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

r'1

0M

ay

Jun

July

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

'11

Ma

yJu

ne

July

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

'12

Ma

yJu

ne

July

Au

gS

ep

tO

ct

No

vD

ec

Jan

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

BCC NBCG

Interest Rates and Inflation Rates (%)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12A

pr'

09

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r'1

0

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r '1

1

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r '1

2

July

Oct

Jan

Ap

r

Repo Rate

Reverse Repo Rate

WPI %YOY

BSE Sensex falls

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

Ap

r'0

9

Ju

n

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Feb

Ap

r'1

0

Ju

n

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Feb

Ap

r '1

1

Ju

ne

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Feb

Ap

r '1

2

Ju

ne

Au

g

Oct

Dec

Feb

Ap

r

Ju

n

Public Finance

Trends in Deficits as % of GDP

4.9

6.6

5.4

2.3

5.2

1.9

9.1

7.9

5.7

4.35.2

8.2

6.3

2.63.1

-3

0

3

6

9

12

20

09

-10

Q2

20

09

-10

Q3

20

09

-10

Q4

20

10

-11

Q1

20

10

-11

Q2

20

10

-11

Q3

20

10

-11

Q4

20

11

-12

Q1

20

11

-12

Q2

20

11

-12

Q3

20

11

-12

Q4

20

12

-13

Q1

20

12

-13

Q2

20

12

-13

Q3

20

12

-13

Q4

Fiscal Deficit Revenue Deficit Primary Deficit

But….

• Too early to talk about it.

• Food Subsidy Bill – the elephant in the room

Thank You

An Assessment of Macroeconomic Scene for

2013-14

Quarterly Review of the Economy August 08, 2013

Sector-wise business activities remain low

Source: HSBC

Business confidence continued to

remain low

Source: NCAER

Low capacity utilisation of manufacturing companies

reflect the below potential growth rate of the sector

Source: Quarterly Order Books, Inventories and Capacity Utilisation Survey, RBI

High growth in manufacturing sector is

necessary for the recovery of service sector

Note: RGDPMFGSA_C = De-trended component of seasonally adjusted real GDP of Manufacturing sector

RGDPOSERSA_C = De-trended component of seasonally adjusted real GDP of Services other than community, social & personal services

-10000

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2009Q

1

2009Q

2

2009Q

3

2009Q

4

2010Q

1

2010Q

2

2010Q

3

2010Q

4

20

11

Q1

20

11

Q2

20

11

Q3

20

11

Q4

2012Q

1

2012Q

2

2012Q

3

2012Q

4

Rs C

rore

RGDPMFGSA_C RGDPOSERSA_C

Forecast

Quarterly Model: Assumptions for 2013-14

Exogenous Variables

2013-14 2013-14

April July

Rainfall Normal Same

BSE Sensex (%yoy) 7.0% 5.0%

Bank Credit to the Commercial

Sector (%yoy) 16.6% 15.8%

Central Government Expenditure

(%yoy) 16.4% (BE) Same

Quarterly Model: GDP growth forecast for

2013-14

Forecast for 2013-14

April

2013-14

July

Q1 5.8 5.0

Q2 6.1 5.4

Q3 6.5 6.1

Q4 6.4 6.0

Overall 6.2 5.7

Source: NCAER

Annual Model: Assumptions for 2013-14

Exogenous Variables

Unit

2004-05 to

2008-09

Average

2013-14 2013-14

April

2013

July

2013

Agriculture related

Rainfall - Normal Same

Public investment in agriculture

sector (current prices) %YOY 23.9 20.0 20.0

External Conditions

World real GDP %YOY 3.5 3.3 3.1

International oil prices %YOY 28.5 3.0 0.0

Non-fuel international prices %YOY 10.8 5.0 0.0

FDI (US$) %YOY 73.9 15.0 10.0

Net foreign institutional investment

(US$) %YOY -41.0 15.0 10.0

Net invisibles (US$) %YOY 27.3 10.0 8.0

Exchange rate (Re/US$) %YOY 0.0 1.5 2.0

Annual Model: Assumptions for 2013-14

Unit

2004-05 to

2008-09

Average

2013-14

April

2013-14

July

Fiscal Account

Disinvestment revenue (Centre) Rs. Crore 9,178 40,000 Same

Subsidies

(% of

GDPmp) 1.6 2.03 Same

Direct tax collection rate %YOY 9.5 2.0 Same

Indirect tax collection rate %YOY -3 1.0 Same

Others

Public investment in non-

agriculture sector (current prices) %YOY 21.2 15.0 Same

WPI energy (Fuel, power, light

etc.) %YOY 6.7 4.0 Same

Annual Model: Forecast for 2012-13 and

2013-14

Note: # surplus (+)/deficit (-)

Item 2012–13

(AE)

NCAER forecast for

2013–14 April 2013

% Change y-o-y Real GDP - Agriculture 1.8 3.2

- Industry 3.1 4.4

- Services 6.6 7.7

Total 5.0 6.2

Exports ($ value) -1.8 23.9

Imports ($ value) 0.4 15.8

Inflation (WPI) 7.2 5.9

% of GDP at market prices Current account balance* -4.8 -3.5

Fiscal Deficit (Centre) 5.2 5.0

NCAER forecast for

2013–14 July 2013

3.2 4.3 7.1 5.9 9.4

12.4 5.9

-4.6 5.1

Thank You